A Productive Weekend

I have to think the Flyers will be pretty pleased the way this draft weekend turned out.  Predicting the draft is usually a fool's errand, as teams' true preferences are never known and one trade can have large domino effects.  All indications, however, is that the Flyers got their man.

Ivan Provorov

Last week, I tweeted an article about how the Flyers really wanted Provorov.  It also looked like the Flyers were interested in trading up to assure they secured Provorov.  After a few edgy moments where the Devils could've once again been the thorn in the Flyers side, the Devils took Zacha with the #6 pick, leaving Provorov available for the Flyers at #7.

With Provorov now in the fold, the Flyers have a second defensemen in the system who projects as a top pair NHLer.  The Flyers have had Morin, Ghost and Hagg in the system (along with lesser prospects like Manning, Alt, etc...), but none of those guys really project as defensive corps cornerstones.  The ceiling is much higher for Sanheim and Provorov, and Provorov is probably now the best prospect in the system.

The scouting reports on Provorov say he could be a little taller (he's only 6'1"), and that he doesn't have great top end speed.  Aside from that, he can pretty do much the rest.  He's a good skater who has a knack for controlling the game.  He is a threat to score on the PP, will kill penalties, and can answer the bell physically when appropriate.  He says his best asset is his hockey sense, likening himself to Lidstrom.  I've seen him compared to Mark Giordano as well.  Here's his best goal, and some scouting reports (1, 2, 3).

I'm going to presume he won't be on the Flyers this coming season until I hear something else, so until he arrives I need to get used to saying pro-VOR-ov, not PROV-or-ov.

Travis Konecny

One also has to think the Flyers will be pretty pleased with their second first round selection, Travis Konecny.  They liked him enough to trade up a few spots seeing that he was still available late in the first round.

Before the season, he was often seen as a top-10 pick, but his draft status fell a bit after a poor first half of the junior season playing through a concussion, and a very deep draft class.  As it was, he entered the draft ranked #14 by central scouting.

I suppose it could be said he slipped a little bit in this draft, but in the Flyers favor.  His size works against him (he's 5'9" or 5'10"), and TSN says his skating needs to improve.  That is odd, because other scouting reports praise his skating, and an OHL coaches poll rated him the best skater in the eastern conference of the OHL.

Either way, he's a skilled and spirited forward.  He's generally a team leader wherever he plays (captain of OHL team and Canada's U-18 squard, McGuire award for player who 'best exemplifies the commitment to excellence through strength of character, competitiveness and athleticism'), and won MVP of the OHL top prospects game.  He finished the season strong (.87/ppg in 1st half of season, 1.4/ppg in 2nd half), including 10 points in 5 playoff games.  Check out this goal, and this assist. 

Rest of Draft

I'd be talking out of my ass to say anything qualitative about the Flyers remaining 8 picks.  All I can really say is that the Flyers used them to stock the cupboard in areas of need, forward and goal.

Grossmann Trade

As soon as the draft was over, the Flyers traded Nick Grossmann in a salary cap move.  Trading Grossmann should not be a surprise.  They also sent Chris Pronger's contract over, in return for Sam Gagner.  On the surface, the Flyers send over $8.421m in cap dollars, and take back $3.2m.  It's not quite that simple though, because the Flyers will retain $500k of Grossman's cap hit, and the Pronger's cap hit was always subject to long term injured reserve exceptions.  If you simply assumed the Flyers could claim an exception for the full amount of Pronger's contract (a dubious assumption), this trade actually HURTS the Flyers cap situation (Grossmann $3.5 < Grossmann $0.5 + Gagner $3.2).  As it is, this trade will save the Flyers the LTIR gymnastics, which aren't always so simple.

Now the Flyers have about $64m and change committed to next season's roster (out of $71.4m salary ceiling), although they still need a backup goalie, a contract for Del Zotto, and another forward or two.  It is also not a sure thing Gagner sticks around.

Gagner is a player of some talent, as he was drafted sixth in 2007 (one pick before Jake Voracek).  His career looked to be building, as he recorded an 8 point game in 2012, and scored 38 points in 48 games in 2012-2013.  The last two seasons have been a disappointment.  He is now nominally on his 4th team in 15 months, and it will be 5 if the Flyers send him on.  He is on the verge of becoming tainted goods in the NHL.

The Flyers could buy him out, or trade him.  The Coyotes GM has recently stated that he doesn't think Gagner has what it takes to be an NHL center, so his NHL career may hinge on his ability to transition to the wing.  That should be okay with the Flyers, as they have centers to spare.  Gagner was not on he waiver wire today in preparation for a buyout, so we'll have to wait and see how this story ends.


Other Moves Around the League

-The Flames picked up Dougie Hamilton for barely more picks than they would have received anyway had he simply walked.  It looks like a steal to me, and a tough one to figure out for Boston, particularly after seeing how they used those picks.

-The Kings are in the process of buying out Richards at a costly cap hit that will last for 10 years.  LA GM Lombardi has called his decision to give Richards a second chance, instead of buying him out with no cap penalty last summer, the worst decision of his career.  Anybody still have doubts about that Richards trade a few years ago?

-The Rangers traded Cam Talbot for 2nd, 3rd, and 7th picks.  Earlier, it had been reported that the Rangers had turned down offers of a 1st round pick, or 2 2nd round picks.  Sounds like the Rangers mishandled that one a bit.
 

Mike Richards Riding the Buses

So pretty much every Flyers fan knows by now that Mike Richards was waived, unclaimed, then sent down to the AHL by the LA Kings.  There's not all that much to say about it, although just a few comments.

First, it is pretty stunning how quickly Richards has fallen.  The guy hasn't even turned 30 yet.  It's not that long ago he was in his early 20s and putting up point-per-game seasons in Philadelphia.

Second, I'm not shocked the Kings did this now.  The Kings were *this* close to buying him out in the offseason, and apparently Richards pleaded with the Kings GM not to do it.  After a few chats, Richards was not bought out and he promised to improve his conditioning.  Accounts are that he successfully did that, but it didn't lead to results on the ice.  That faith by the Kings has now turned into a pretty big failure, as the opportunity for a cap free buyout is gone forever, and the Kings sent him down to the minors to save a measly $925k off the cap.  Viewed differently, the Kings are paying him $4.825 not to play for the big club.

Third, does this mean the Flyers "won" the trade?  I don't think that's the right question to ask.  From the Kings perspective, they won two cups with Richards on the roster, and he was fairly productive for them in the playoffs (27 points in 35 playoff games the first two playoff runs).  Really the important question for the Flyers (and moreso for their fans), is would you do the trade all over again?  The answer to that is an easy yes.

Carter and Richards Play for the Cup

It is a perfect nightmare for many Flyers fans to see players that the Flyers happily casted off have a chance to win the cup elsewhere just one year later.  Rationally, the fact that Richards and Carter ended up in the same place and now may win the cup before the Flyers says absolutely nothing at all about the wisdom of the big trades last summer, however.

I think some Flyers fans are getting carried away in criticizing Richards and Carter, acting as if they were a cancer on the team.  That is gossip, conjecture, and revisionist history run amok.  It seems to me that the Carter trade was a simple hockey trade, and a very good one at that.  The Richards trade was a little less straightforward, but seemed to be a personality makeover to team leadership.  That trade's success remains  less clear.

Before saying anything else, you need to take a step back and look at how Carter and Richards actually performed this season.
Carter: 55gp (for CLB and LA), 21 goals, 13 assists, -13.
Richards: 74 gp, 18 goals, 26 assists, +3

34 and 44 points?  Flyers fans would be going batshit crazy if those players stayed on the Flyers squad this year and produced those numbers.

So what about the playoffs?
Carter: 14gp, 4 goals, 5 assists, +2
Richards: 14gp, 4 goals, 7 assists, +3

I think the Kings are pretty satisfied with what they are getting from Richards these playoffs.  He's playing in a mostly defensive role, and chipping in some points along the way.  This is more or less what he did with the Flyers, and his points/game is nearly identical as his time in Philly (with Flyers 50/63=0.794, with Kings 11/14=0.786).

Regarding Carter, a big knock on him in Philly were his playoff disappearances (21/47=0.447 points/game).  His 9 points in the 14 games seem to imply a different level in performance, though that number is inflated by a relatively unimpressive hat track.  Take away that one game, and he has a line of 1 goal, 5 assists in the 13 games (0.462 points/game).  He has actually gone pointless in 9 of 14 playoff games.  Again, this is pretty much a repeat of his playoff MO in Philly for which he was heavily criticized.

I think the takeaway here is that there's no reason to get bent out of shape that the Richards and Carter have a chance to win it all elsewhere so soon after the trade.  They didn't destroy the franchise here, and they haven't magically become brave playoff heroes elsewhere.

Flyers fans are free to root for or against them in the finals, but bitterness towards the pair on the grounds that they sabotaged the Flyers and ran off to play better in another city, isn't really justified.  I'm still happy with the trades, as I was last summer.

Bromance Rekindled

After a tumultuous year, the couple that has been together since they were teenagers have found each other again.

 

If the Kings weren't already "Flyers West" with all their former flyers players and coaches, it could get even more uncanny.

The scorecard;

-Dean Lombardi, Kings GM, former Flyers scout

-Ron Hextall, Kings Assistant GM, nearly 500 games played for the Flyers

-Terry Murray, Kings coach until early this season, former Flyers coach

-John Stevens, interim Kings coach, former Flyers coach

-Active players: Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, Simon Gagne, Justin Williams

Then there's this nugget from Bob McKenzie this morning: "Why trade Brown? IMO, LAK like Brown as "player," not as enthused about Brown as captain. IMO, only matter of time til Mike Richards gets C."

In short order the Kings could be a team coached by John Stevens, captained by Mike Richards, with Jeff Carter as their leading goal scorer.  Sound familiar?

Carter Trade II 

If you're keeping score at home, the return the Blue Jackets received for Carter is a mid-first round pick and Jack Johnson.  The return the Flyers received was a high first round pick, Jake Voracek and a 3rd round pick.  Columbus did well to salvage a trade that has been disastrous for them, but the Flyers can be pleased they got more value and appear to have sold high on Carter.

In on Brown

Both Darren Dreger and Bob McKenzie say the Flyers are involved in talks for Brown, so I'm going to take it as truth.  Dustin Brown is the captain of the Kings, is generally good for 25 goals and 60 points, and hits everything that moves.  The question is, can the Flyers afford his cap hit this season?  Brown's cap hit of just $3.125 is generally very desirable, but the Flyers are already up against the cap this season.  If the Flyers were to trade JVR+ for Brown, they would still need to trim ~$1.5m elsewhere on the roster.  Ironically, making this trade would increase cap space for the Flyers next season as JVR's cap hit rises to $4.25 next year.

The Flyers roster this season doesn't have any clear holes anymore, so a trade for Brown is bordering on gratuitous, though it would make the Flyers a better team this year and next.  Either way, only a few more days of the trade rumors before the deadline.  Until then, JVR will probably be very nervous.  Also, FWIW, Pierre LeBrun wrote on ESPN.com this morning that a few weeks the Flyers were talking JVR for Jack Johnson, but obviously it didn't happen (perhaps due to JVR's concussion?).