Updated Cap Outlook

My current projection (with assumptions) for Flyers cap next year:

Forwards

Leino? (???) -Briere (6.5) -Hartnell (4.2)

Versteeg (3.083) -Richards (5.75) -JVR (1.654)

Nodl [.8925] -Carter (5.27) -Giroux (3.75)

Powe [.761] -Betts (.7) -Shelley (1.1)

Total: 33.6605

D

Pronger (4.9) - Carle (3.4)

Timo (6.3) - Coburn (3.2)

Mesz (4)-O'Donnell [1]

Bartulis (.571)

Total: 23.371

Goal

Bobo (1.75)

Total: 1.75

Overall: 58.7815

Cap 10-11 - $59.4

Assumptions

-Nodl and Powe will accept the Flyers' minimum RFA qualifying offers

-O'Donnell will resign for the same amount.

-The following players will not be on the roster next year.

Laperriere

Carcillo

Walker

Zherdev

Boucher

Leighton

-The cap next year will go up by a few million. Let's say it goes up by $3.6 to an even $63 million.

So, given all these assumptions, the Flyers will have approximately $4.2185 million in cap space to sign Leino, a #13 forward, and a backup goalie. The Flyers have also indicated in the past that they want to enter the season with at least $1 million in cap space to provide some flexibility during the season. That would reduce the functional signing space to $3.2185 million.

If the Flyers sign a #13 forward and a backup goalie for $700k each, they will have $1.8185 to sign Leino or another everyday forward. This math also assumes a very modest increase for Nodl, which may be unlikely.

Or, in other words, the Flyers plan on trading Carle in the offseason, or the team has already given up trying to retain Leino.

Recapping the Cap (and Leino)

Currently, the Flyers cap for next year projects as follows:

Forwards

Leino (???) -Briere (6.5) -Hartnell (4.2)

Nodl [.8925] -Richards (5.75) -JVR (1.654)

????-Carter (5.27) -Giroux (3.75)

Powe [.761] -Betts (.7) -Shelley (1.1)

Total: 31.27

D

Pronger (4.9) - Carle (3.4)

Timo (6.3) - Coburn (3.2)

Mesz (4)-O'Donnell [1]

Total: 22.8

Goal

Bobo (1.75)

Leighton (1.55)

Total: 3.3

Overall: 57.37

Cap 10-11 - $59.4

There are so many variables in projecting something like this, that you have to make some assumptions to have any kind of meaningful conversation.

For the above, I assumed that Nodl and Powe will accept the Flyers' minimum RFA qualifying offers, and that O'Donnell will resign for the same amount. I also assumed that, one way or another, the following players will not be on the roster next year.

Laperriere

Carcillo

Walker

Zherdev

Boucher

One more assumption; the cap next year will go up by a few million. Let's say it goes up by $3.6 to an even $63 million.

So, given all these assumptions, the Flyers will have approximately $5.5 million in cap space to sign Leino, #12 and #13 forwards, and a #7 defensemen. The Flyers have also indicated in the past that they want to enter the season with at least $1 million in cap space to provide some flexibility during the season. That would reduce the functional signing space to $4.5 million.

Okay one more step. Let's say the Flyers sign cheap-o players for those bottom of the lineup guys at approximately $700k each.

I take a few things away from this breakdown;

1) The Flyers could absorb a signing of Leino without making other changes if he signs for less than $2.4 million

2) If Leino wants more than that, something else will have to go (I say Carle is the likely candidate)

3) Trying to project all this when there are still so many variables floating around is pretty much a futile exercise.

Carter signed -- 11 years, $5.27m/year

The rumors proved to be true, and it is being reported today that Carter has signed an 11-year contract for $5.27m/year.

Let me just take a moment to pat myself on the back for my salary prediction being pretty much spot on.

Also, Carter is not a true number 1 center IMO due to his lack of a any kind of passing or physical game, but he is a quality player no doubt and a $5.27 cap hit won't handicap the team if Carter is going through his up and down scoring streaks.

Carter contract rumors

His next contract with the Flyers is expected to be signed before the month is out.

And according to two sources, it figures to be 10 years, virtually guaranteeing that center turned winger Jeff Carter will spend most, if not his entire career, in orange ‘n black, much like best buddy Mike Richards.

Tim Panaccio - as seen on csnphilly

http://www.csnphilly.com/11/11/10/Carter-Notches-Hat-Trick-as-Flyers-Domin/landing_flyers.html?blockID=350972&feedID=704

Assuming there is any truth to the report, I would expect the Flyers are talking about putting so many years on the contract to lessen the yearly cap hit.

The obvious benchmark for such a contract would be Richards' 12-year contract, signed in December 07 at $5.75/year.

Given how I expressed my belief that the NHL market is down from that season, and that teams sign super-long deals to lessen the cap hit, maybe Carter will sign for closer to $5 million flat, or even less? Hopefully that's not just wishful thinkiing, but we shall see.

UPDATE: David Backes signs with Blues for $4.5m/year. Seems an awful lot for a guy who hit 31 goals 2 years ago, but only 17 last year and 2 in 14 games this year. Can't help the Flyers negotiating position with Carter...

Giroux resigns - what does it mean for Carter's value?

Somewhat without warning, Claude Giroux signed a new contract with the Flyers this week. He will get a hefty raise and the Flyers will lock him up for 3 years at cap number of $3.75 million. Giroux get his well deserved money, and the Flyers will still retain his RFA rights when this deal expires. Huzzah for everyone!!

Of course the more interesting question is what does this mean for the squad as a whole, and most importantly, resigning Jeff Carter. While opinions differ amongst Flyers fans on just how good Carter is, he's led the team in goals the last 2 years, and is at the point in his career when most players see big raises. The big caveat to all this however is that the NHL salary market has kind of tanked in the last few years.

Giroux's deal itself spells this out. Former first round pick, aged 22, coming off a 47 point regular season, and a big playoff run with 21 points in 23 games. What's it worth in 2010? $3.75 million.

On the other hand, at age 23 in 2008, Carter got $5 million for virtually the same credentials: former first round pick, 53 point regular season, 12 points in 17 playoffs games. Jeff Carter may have been a little more hyped as a prospect due to his AHL and WJC success, but Giroux has arguably accomplished more at the NHL level than Carter did at the time of his contract.

So blah blah blah. What I take from this is that Jeff Carter's coming off a contract that, at today's market prices, would've been worth $3.75-$4 million dollars. So even if he gets a small nominal raise (say just over $5 million), it's essentially a significant real value raise. (Not that I expect any comments on this, but please no one disturb this surely impeccable analysis)

You have to expect Carter and his agent will ask for $6+ million based on nominal figures, but the Flyers cap space isn't exactly plentiful and the Flyers will probably try to rely on depressed market prices. The heady days of 2007/08 with Jeff Finger (now in the AHL) signing for $3.5 million/year, or Thomas Vanek getting $7+ million for one breakout year are gone, at least for now. This is the new reality of contracts for NHL forwards in 2010:

-Joe Thornton ($7m)
-Bobby Ryan ($5.1m)
-Alex Steen ($3.4)
-Ollli Jokinen ($3m)
-Vaclav Prospal ($2.1m)
-Saku Koivu ($2.5m)
-Tanguay ($1.7)

I'm expecting Carter to come in at $5.25-5.75 million on his new deal. And based on some rumblings last week, it might be signed sooner rather than later.

Then Flyers fan can start to worry about signing Leino....