The Flyers had another sour loss the other night. Now I will raise my hand as one of the people seeing improvement under Berube. Their only win was not a great performance in my opinion, and while they have lost 3 in a row, they have all been credible performances with the team notably much better at 5-on-5. Of course there are still lots to work on such as terrible special teams (compounded by taking a ton of minor penalties), 3rd period swoons...
I have faith that those things will improve, but one also has to look at the roster and identify its shortcomings. It is easy for anyone to immediately identify that the team hasn't replaced Chris Pronger, in skills or leadership, but no one mentions Matt Carle anymore.
I probably fall into the group that didn't appreciate Carle enough when he was here, and I was ready to say good riddance at his current price of $5.5m, but I have to admit his absence is really hurting. Seeing Keith Yandle weave around the ice with the puck the other night reminded me of this, as he and Carle have very similar skill sets. Yandle puts the puck in the net more often with a much better shot, but the puck carrying and skating is similar.
The Flyers brought in Streit, with all his offensive talents, but no expects the smaller, older Streit, to play the 23+ minutes Carle used to play. This means the Flyers are still without a take-charge, high-minutes, puck carrying defensemen or can control the game tempo.
Holmgren is not an idiot. He knows the Flyers defense is inadequate, and that's why he's tried to acquire Ryan Suter and Shea Weber recently. Either way, they're not here, and something needs to be done. There is no easy path for Holmgren that I know about, but he needs to get creative in how he can change the chemistry of the Flyers' defensive group.
Opinions on NHL topics of the moment, but mostly on the Flyers.
Showing posts with label carle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label carle. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 16, 2013
Thursday, February 14, 2013
Flyers Finding Their Niche
I have written that this year's Flyers really aren't all that good a team, and I haven't seen anything to make me change my mind. They're not contenders, but they are finding their niche as a bubble playoff team.
After a pretty rough start, the Flyers took 7 of 8 points from a 4 game homestand. The wins were hardly commanding victories, but they scrapped out the wins against other bubble teams. They followed that up with a humbling loss in Toronto, before a gritty win in Winnipeg.
The lesson learned from this stretch is we've seen how the Flyers have to win games this year. They don't have the firepower to outscore teams like last year; 4 and 5 goal performances will be rare. Bryzgalov is playing excellent however, as he is tracking the puck very well, and really battling and recovering better. The Flyers also are doing more to collapse around the net in ways they desperately needed to last year.
The Flyers can get some wins this year in this fashion, but it's all pretty fragile. For one, this team is completely dependent on Bryzgalov (hard to believe we're saying that about Bryzgalov after last year, or the Flyers in general, well, ever). Partially because Bryzgalov has been very good, and partially because the backup goalie situation is so lousy.
It's also fragile because of the youth up front. Giroux is looking overwhelmed with Hartnell and Jagr out of the lineup. Recently, Read, Voracek and Schenn have stepped up their play, but who knows how that will keep up. It will be a struggle all season, but hopefully Hartsy and Mesz will be back relatively soon, which will help.
Speak of Jagr...
Jagr is one of many recently departed Flyers doing very well thus far. Jagr has become a key piece on offense for Dallas, and is leading the team with 11 points in 13 games. The Flyers are missing him this year more than I expected. Also;
-Matt Carle is playing big minutes in TB (which shouldn't be surprising) and already has 2 goals. The other key departure for the Flyers this year.
-JVR has 8 goals in 13 games, a pretty stark change from the 11 he scored in 43 for the Flyers last year. Many of these have been of the tap-in variety, finishing off others' plays (he only has 2 assists), but there's nothing wrong with that. He's playing well and with confidence, but there's no need for Flyers fans to panic about that trade at the moment.
-Similar to JVR, Jeff Carter has 6 goals (and only 1 assist) in 11 games for the offensively challenged Kings.
Put all this together, and you can see all the offense that has gone out the door from Philadelphia. That kind of goal-hawking from JVR and Carter is certainly a missing ingredient from this year's Flyers roster.
But Don't Panic
The Flyers have obvious needs, which my man Bill Meltzer accurately describes and prioritizes; "1) a puck-moving defenseman who can play 20+ minutes per game, 2) a scoring winger who possesses both good size and a consistent willingness to work in the "greasy" areas of the ice (though I might go a little more towards high-end skill players who snipe, in the mold of Perry or Iginla mentioned below), 3) a backup goaltending upgrade in case of a long-term injury to Ilya Bryzgalov, 4) a fourth-line center who is strong on defensive zone face-offs." http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=49290#.UR0bGqWyD9l
Despite this, it DOES NOT make sense for the Flyers to go chasing down trades. For one, they are not a contender this year, so trading more youth and picks is a bad idea. The Flyers have very few high-end prospects, and are generally depleted of prospects outside the NHL from trading away so many picks under Holmgen. Second, these are tough holes to fill, as evidenced by the Timonen contract signed last week.
Clearly the Flyers looked around and saw Timonen was their only option for a number 1 defensemen next year. He is old, and isn't the defensemen he used to be, but the Flyers renewed him at a very high cap number (shockingly high at first glance) because they had no other choice. After accepting that reality, my only regret is that they couldn't get Kimmo to resign for say $4.5m instead of 6. $1.5m in cap space will make a difference if the Flyers pursue Iginla or Perry as free agents after this season...
After a pretty rough start, the Flyers took 7 of 8 points from a 4 game homestand. The wins were hardly commanding victories, but they scrapped out the wins against other bubble teams. They followed that up with a humbling loss in Toronto, before a gritty win in Winnipeg.
The lesson learned from this stretch is we've seen how the Flyers have to win games this year. They don't have the firepower to outscore teams like last year; 4 and 5 goal performances will be rare. Bryzgalov is playing excellent however, as he is tracking the puck very well, and really battling and recovering better. The Flyers also are doing more to collapse around the net in ways they desperately needed to last year.
The Flyers can get some wins this year in this fashion, but it's all pretty fragile. For one, this team is completely dependent on Bryzgalov (hard to believe we're saying that about Bryzgalov after last year, or the Flyers in general, well, ever). Partially because Bryzgalov has been very good, and partially because the backup goalie situation is so lousy.
It's also fragile because of the youth up front. Giroux is looking overwhelmed with Hartnell and Jagr out of the lineup. Recently, Read, Voracek and Schenn have stepped up their play, but who knows how that will keep up. It will be a struggle all season, but hopefully Hartsy and Mesz will be back relatively soon, which will help.
Speak of Jagr...
Jagr is one of many recently departed Flyers doing very well thus far. Jagr has become a key piece on offense for Dallas, and is leading the team with 11 points in 13 games. The Flyers are missing him this year more than I expected. Also;
-Matt Carle is playing big minutes in TB (which shouldn't be surprising) and already has 2 goals. The other key departure for the Flyers this year.
-JVR has 8 goals in 13 games, a pretty stark change from the 11 he scored in 43 for the Flyers last year. Many of these have been of the tap-in variety, finishing off others' plays (he only has 2 assists), but there's nothing wrong with that. He's playing well and with confidence, but there's no need for Flyers fans to panic about that trade at the moment.
-Similar to JVR, Jeff Carter has 6 goals (and only 1 assist) in 11 games for the offensively challenged Kings.
Put all this together, and you can see all the offense that has gone out the door from Philadelphia. That kind of goal-hawking from JVR and Carter is certainly a missing ingredient from this year's Flyers roster.
But Don't Panic
The Flyers have obvious needs, which my man Bill Meltzer accurately describes and prioritizes; "1) a puck-moving defenseman who can play 20+ minutes per game, 2) a scoring winger who possesses both good size and a consistent willingness to work in the "greasy" areas of the ice (though I might go a little more towards high-end skill players who snipe, in the mold of Perry or Iginla mentioned below), 3) a backup goaltending upgrade in case of a long-term injury to Ilya Bryzgalov, 4) a fourth-line center who is strong on defensive zone face-offs." http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=49290#.UR0bGqWyD9l
Despite this, it DOES NOT make sense for the Flyers to go chasing down trades. For one, they are not a contender this year, so trading more youth and picks is a bad idea. The Flyers have very few high-end prospects, and are generally depleted of prospects outside the NHL from trading away so many picks under Holmgen. Second, these are tough holes to fill, as evidenced by the Timonen contract signed last week.
Clearly the Flyers looked around and saw Timonen was their only option for a number 1 defensemen next year. He is old, and isn't the defensemen he used to be, but the Flyers renewed him at a very high cap number (shockingly high at first glance) because they had no other choice. After accepting that reality, my only regret is that they couldn't get Kimmo to resign for say $4.5m instead of 6. $1.5m in cap space will make a difference if the Flyers pursue Iginla or Perry as free agents after this season...
Friday, July 6, 2012
A Disappointing Week?
I've been patiently waiting for things to play out, and now most of the big questions have been answered. So...
Parise and Suter
-The Flyers reportedly made massive bids to both Parise and Suter, possibly the biggest offer of any team in terms of dollars and years (over 10 years and over $100m). Honestly, to my relief, neither bid was accepted. All-in-all, their decision to sign jointly in Minnesota is nearly ideal for the Flyers.
I really like Parise's game, and by all reports Suter is a quality top pair defensemen. Still, I don't think it made sense for the Flyers to be saddled with these deals, which would be overpayments unless these guys are MVP or Norris candidates. The Flyers getting either of these guys was always a longshot, but my more realistic concern was Parise signing with the Pens (though I have to say, I'm not sure it was even wise for the Penguins to commit $25m to three forwards for the next 10 years in Malkin, Crosby and Parise). Now the Flyers can breathe a sigh of relief, with both players going to the Western conference rather than strengthening a rival. The real losers of these shenanigans were Detroit and Nashville, who fell short in pursuing Suter and the obvious Suter-Plan-B, Matt Carle.
Carle Signs in TB
-Speaking of Carle, he got a long contract from TB. Flyers fans' initial reaction to this was that the Flyers blew it, by futilely chasing Suter and letting Carle get away. I'm not sure I quite see it that way.
For one, it's not entirely tough luck the Flyers had not already signed him. The fact is, they prioritized signing Grossmann and Coburn over signing Carle. Two, the Flyers took a very strange stance, publicly touting that they believed they could sign Carle for below market value.
For months, I have written here repeatedly that if he got to free agency, someone was going to offer Carle $5m+ a year. The signing of Wideman last week removed all doubt, and evidently caused Carle to reconsider any verbal agreement with the Flyers. My bottom line is this; you can't fight the market with UFAs. Once Carle decided to at least listen to free agent offers, the Flyers had no shot. He was going to wait for Suter to sign, then get a big offer. The Flyers pursuit of Suter made no difference, as by then Carle was in UFA mode and Carle was waiting for Suter before he would sign with anyone (including the Flyers). At that point, the Flyers were not going to come close to TB's offer of $5.5m x 6 years.
Realistically, the Flyers had two options. Sign Carle to ~$5m contract a few months ago and let either Grossmann or Coburn be exposed to UFA offers, or do what they did with Carle. They chose the latter, and I'm not sure I would've done it differently.
Jagr Goes to Dallas
-Another effect of the exploding UFA market this season was Jagr getting a $4.5m deal from Dallas. Again, there is no way the Flyers would offer that much. I would've liked to see the Flyers resign him for something at or below last year's $3.3m contract, but again, you can't fight the market.
As it was, Jagr left and there was a lovefest on twitter between Jagr and his now ex-teammates.
Jaromir Jagr @68Jagr
-Just to everybody knows:Max Talbot is the most underrated and underpaid player in NHL.Holmgren did a great job signing him last season.
-To@28CGiroux:Keep working and soon you will be the best player in NHL like I said.To@Hartsy19:work hard and you will score 40.
Matt Read @MReader24
Was a pleasure play some puck with the legend himself@68Jagr. Best of luck in Dallas Mr. Positive#beauty#alwayssmiling
Oh well, I enjoyed having him around last year.
Gervais and Fedotenko
-Without digging to deeply to analyze these signings, they seem like good ideas to me. Fedotenko's a very experienced vet who can play any forward position and have the full trust of the coach. The cap hit is low, and there's basically no risk in a 1-year contract.
Regarding Gervais, another low risk move that could blossom nicely. He's not going to play many minutes, but with a right-handed shot and his strength being puck movement, he could slot in nicely. If he does have a bounceback season, the Flyers have him under contract next year for super-cheap as well. Also, as an aside, Gervais and Talbot are apparently best buds, and Talbot will be Gervais's best man in his upcoming wedding.
The Picture
So merely assuming Voracek and Bourdon are signed, and the Flyers can use all of Pronger's LTIR allotment, this is the roster today:
That doesn't look too bad, but definitely not as strong as last year. Up front, JVR and Jagr are out, replaced by 3rd liner Fedotenko. In the back, Carle and his 20+ minutes are gone, replaced by Schenn and Gervais. Again, the Flyers are going to be relying on young players to improve and maintain a high level of play. Fortunately, the Flyers still have some flexibility here with ~$8m in cap space to use.
I like the Rick Tocchet plan, which may already be in effect; "If I were Flyers , I would have my attention on Doan and a couple of second tier d-man ...stay with the young core and grab Weber next year".
Doan and Weber would be big for this team, though whether either goes anywhere is up in the air. Nashville will desperately want to keep Weber, but in one year he can do whatever he wants. Doan wants to stay, provided ownership in Phoenix is stabilized.
Personally, I make aggressive offers to Doan for 2 or 3 years. Hopefully higher dollars can substitute for that 4th year he wants, and that other teams will give him.
Regarding Weber, best case scenario for the Flyers is that he plays one more year in Nashville, then goes UFA. The Flyers don't have much left to trade--I wouldn't trade Cooter under any circumstances, and I might've traded Schenn for someone like Weber, but that was before JVR and Jagr were gone. The forwards corps now can't afford to lose Schenn.
The wisest thing for Nashville to do is offer Weber a huge contract, and if he doesn't take it, trade him. They can't afford to lose Weber next year like they lost Suter this year. Unfortunately, this makes it pretty hard on the Flyers to acquire him, in my opinion.
Monday, June 11, 2012
Offseason Preparations
I've had my little break, and the dust has settled after the playoff exit. Offseason grumblings are beginning to trickle out, so I'd like to make sense of it all.
Starting with the least speculative news, multiple reports last week indicated Jagr's first choice is to indeed resign with the Flyers, despite the indications that he was ready to move on fresh off the playoff loss. Talks with the Flyers are said to be progressing, with one rumor on twitter saying that an agreement is already reached.
Additionally, claims are that the Flyers will resign Carle too, at slightly below market rate. The twist to all this that the Flyers don't have the "tagging space" to sign them yet (basically, your payroll next year can't exceed this year's cap). As a result, the cap will rise to $70.3 million on July 1, and the Flyers will be free to sign these guys then. By that time however, Carle will officially be a free agent, and I still think someone throws $5+ million at him. Could that throw a wrench in the Flyers plans?
Either way, let's assume these signings both happen. Now I have heard NOTHING about Voracek resigning, but let's plug that in too. You get this picture.
*This is without the "bonus cushion." This means that for players like Schenn, his cap hit will be the full $3.11m until he misses a bonus benchmark. This will happen soon, but even so, this is the limit with which the Flyers must comply on opening day. If there is the "bonus cushion" this season, the Flyers can exceed the cap by such a bonus, but would be penalized if the players ultimately earned the bonus and send the Flyers over the cap.
Now ignore the lines, and I had to guess at contract values for Jagr, Voracek and Carle, but this should be more or less accurate. The main takeaway is that, making no other changes, merely resigning these guys leaves little cap space for other signings. This leaves the possibility of a plain vanilla offseason of resignings only, with no other acquisitions of note.
The Flyers rarely stand pat though, often pulling off trades at the draft. I'm not going to speculate on roster depth maneuvers, but there could be a few big pieces in play.
JVR-Nash Rumors
For one, Howard Eskin dropped this nugget yesterday; JVR is delaying having surgery, which could hold up a trade for Nash because the Flyers can't trade him if he isn't healthy. Now Eskin knows nothing about hockey in terms of analysis, but his information is good. He usually only says something about the Flyers when he gets good info.
JVR was on the Flyers post-season surgery list, and unusually (but not shockingly), he has not had the surgery yet. The Flyers have already denied the insinuation that there is any intent on the part of JVR to delay his surgery, and that does seem like a bombastic accusation.
Putting aside the question of intent by JVR, but taking the underlying issue of his health holding up a trade as true, this transaction would return to a few themes. Go back to the trade deadline, and the Flyers were players for Nash. It was left at, and I quote Darren Dreger, "Price too high for Flyers(at moment) for Nash. May re-engage later. JVR,Bobrovski, Schenn or Couturier believed to be part of asking price." Also, this would be the second time a JVR injury is seen as holding up a deal, as he was out with a concussion in February when the Luke Schenn trade rumors were everywhere.
I've already evaluated a JVR-Nash trade, but my stance remains the same---JVR will never be the player Nash is, but Nash's best days are behind him. JVR and Bob I'd be happy to trade, but I would not include Schenn or Cooter in the trade for a diminishing star with a big cap hit like Nash. We'll see if there's anything to this.
Nashville Defensemen
Putting aside Nash, the Flyers real need is top-end defensemen. The two names being thrown around are Suter and Tobias Enstrom. Enstrom is basically a younger Timonen, but he has one year left on his contract (at a low cap it), and would require a trade to acquire. Suter will be a free agent on July 1, and Nashville is trying hard to resign him.
I've seen reports that the Suter doesn't want to sign with the Flyers, but even assuming those are incorrect, I doubt we'll see this signing. For one, Nashville has the cap space and will pull out all the stops to keep him. Second, everyone knows Detroit wants him, and Detroit has just seen Lidstrom retire and is letting Stuart go. I think Suter stays in Nashville or goes to Detroit.
This situation creates a second domino--Shea Weber. He is my grand hope for the Flyers this offseason. A full-on replacement for Chris Pronger. Weber is a restricted free agent, so practically this means a trade. JVR again? (A JVR+Mesz+picks seems to be a popular rumor. I'd take that trade FWIW.) The wrinkle here is that Weber and Suter are the spine of Nashville's team, and despite their limited budget, I can't see any way they let both Weber and Suter go. Despite my fantasies, I think the most likely scenario is Suter to Detroit, Weber staying in Nashville.
Bobrovsky
Getting back to Bobrovsky, the Flyers could try to save some cap space but getting a cheaper backup. Bob's future prospects in Philadelphia are waning, though I was an advocate of trading him last offseason. I don't think Bob has nearly as much trading value as Flyers fans like to believe, but the time might be right to trade him anyway and bring in an experienced number 2.
Starting with the least speculative news, multiple reports last week indicated Jagr's first choice is to indeed resign with the Flyers, despite the indications that he was ready to move on fresh off the playoff loss. Talks with the Flyers are said to be progressing, with one rumor on twitter saying that an agreement is already reached.
Additionally, claims are that the Flyers will resign Carle too, at slightly below market rate. The twist to all this that the Flyers don't have the "tagging space" to sign them yet (basically, your payroll next year can't exceed this year's cap). As a result, the cap will rise to $70.3 million on July 1, and the Flyers will be free to sign these guys then. By that time however, Carle will officially be a free agent, and I still think someone throws $5+ million at him. Could that throw a wrench in the Flyers plans?
Either way, let's assume these signings both happen. Now I have heard NOTHING about Voracek resigning, but let's plug that in too. You get this picture.
*This is without the "bonus cushion." This means that for players like Schenn, his cap hit will be the full $3.11m until he misses a bonus benchmark. This will happen soon, but even so, this is the limit with which the Flyers must comply on opening day. If there is the "bonus cushion" this season, the Flyers can exceed the cap by such a bonus, but would be penalized if the players ultimately earned the bonus and send the Flyers over the cap.
Now ignore the lines, and I had to guess at contract values for Jagr, Voracek and Carle, but this should be more or less accurate. The main takeaway is that, making no other changes, merely resigning these guys leaves little cap space for other signings. This leaves the possibility of a plain vanilla offseason of resignings only, with no other acquisitions of note.
The Flyers rarely stand pat though, often pulling off trades at the draft. I'm not going to speculate on roster depth maneuvers, but there could be a few big pieces in play.
JVR-Nash Rumors
For one, Howard Eskin dropped this nugget yesterday; JVR is delaying having surgery, which could hold up a trade for Nash because the Flyers can't trade him if he isn't healthy. Now Eskin knows nothing about hockey in terms of analysis, but his information is good. He usually only says something about the Flyers when he gets good info.
JVR was on the Flyers post-season surgery list, and unusually (but not shockingly), he has not had the surgery yet. The Flyers have already denied the insinuation that there is any intent on the part of JVR to delay his surgery, and that does seem like a bombastic accusation.
Putting aside the question of intent by JVR, but taking the underlying issue of his health holding up a trade as true, this transaction would return to a few themes. Go back to the trade deadline, and the Flyers were players for Nash. It was left at, and I quote Darren Dreger, "Price too high for Flyers(at moment) for Nash. May re-engage later. JVR,Bobrovski, Schenn or Couturier believed to be part of asking price." Also, this would be the second time a JVR injury is seen as holding up a deal, as he was out with a concussion in February when the Luke Schenn trade rumors were everywhere.
I've already evaluated a JVR-Nash trade, but my stance remains the same---JVR will never be the player Nash is, but Nash's best days are behind him. JVR and Bob I'd be happy to trade, but I would not include Schenn or Cooter in the trade for a diminishing star with a big cap hit like Nash. We'll see if there's anything to this.
Nashville Defensemen
Putting aside Nash, the Flyers real need is top-end defensemen. The two names being thrown around are Suter and Tobias Enstrom. Enstrom is basically a younger Timonen, but he has one year left on his contract (at a low cap it), and would require a trade to acquire. Suter will be a free agent on July 1, and Nashville is trying hard to resign him.
I've seen reports that the Suter doesn't want to sign with the Flyers, but even assuming those are incorrect, I doubt we'll see this signing. For one, Nashville has the cap space and will pull out all the stops to keep him. Second, everyone knows Detroit wants him, and Detroit has just seen Lidstrom retire and is letting Stuart go. I think Suter stays in Nashville or goes to Detroit.
This situation creates a second domino--Shea Weber. He is my grand hope for the Flyers this offseason. A full-on replacement for Chris Pronger. Weber is a restricted free agent, so practically this means a trade. JVR again? (A JVR+Mesz+picks seems to be a popular rumor. I'd take that trade FWIW.) The wrinkle here is that Weber and Suter are the spine of Nashville's team, and despite their limited budget, I can't see any way they let both Weber and Suter go. Despite my fantasies, I think the most likely scenario is Suter to Detroit, Weber staying in Nashville.
Bobrovsky
Getting back to Bobrovsky, the Flyers could try to save some cap space but getting a cheaper backup. Bob's future prospects in Philadelphia are waning, though I was an advocate of trading him last offseason. I don't think Bob has nearly as much trading value as Flyers fans like to believe, but the time might be right to trade him anyway and bring in an experienced number 2.
Sunday, May 13, 2012
The Offseason Plan
THE SETUP
Here is my best guess as to what the Flyers base lineup will be.
Notes to this chart
-Nearly all of these salary numbers are final, except for Bourdon and Voracek. They are RFAs, and I have guessed at salaries for them
-Pronger, Kubina, Carle and Jagr are not in this lineup.
-A salary cap of $69 million, which is a number that has been thrown around. Obviously with the CBA expiring things could get interesting regarding the cap.
THE ISSUES
-Is Jagr coming back?
That is the first question to answer. If the season ended in January, I would say definitely. He looked tired and beat up as the season carried on though, and his role was reduced. Jagr loved everything about playing for the Flyers this year, and he sounds like he wants one more year in the NHL, but he won't sign here unless he feels he will get significant minutes. He signed with the Flyers against expectations last year because he thought it was a good "hockey fit", and he will leave if that "hockey fit" no longer applies.
-The Defense
By signing Grossmann to an extension, the Flyers took care of their top offseason priority in April. That seems like a decent contract, provided his knees hold up. The Flyers still need help back here though, with Pronger seemingly done, and Timonen is at the end of his career, undersized, and has not survived an 82 game season without sustaining performance-inhibiting injuries the last 2 seasons.
I don't think Carle will be back, because someone will be willing to give him $5m+ a year for several years, and I don't think the Flyers should be that team. You never know though with the way Clarke is talking. There's also a (very) small chance Timonen could retire, freeing up his $6.3m salary, and the Flyers could chase Suter for big money.
Lastly, I've seen spitballing the Flyers could trade for someone like Weber, would involve trading significant assets. Such a move fits the Flyers MO, and while it would hurt to trade away more picks and young forwards, a defense corps with Coburn, Carle and Weber could be rock solid for several years. So many variables to that though...
-Size up front
The Flyers score a ton of goals, but their forward corps is small and not very physical. A big body for the 2/3rd line (who plays big) would balance the roster.
-Goaltending
Nothing to discuss here really. Bryzgalov did not have a good year overall, but I expect improvement next year now that he knows what to expect in Philly. His instincts with the media are wrong for the town, but he's figuring it out.
If you recall, at the end of February, Bryzgalov made comments about "finding the peace in his soul" to play in this city. Most commented that this was a very troubling sign reflecting a discouraged player, and I said it was a good sign. For the record, on the day of that comment, Bryzgalov's save percentage stood at .898. After that comment, he had a spectacular month of March and had a .929 save percentage for the remainder of the season. He will still makes gaffes, but now he knows the lay of the land in Philly and will be better for it.
THE PLAN
There are a ton of ways you could go, but this is what I would do:
-Trade JVR, preferably for an up-and-coming dman. I'm not sure what the trade value of JVR is right now, and if it's diminished in the last few months, but surely the Flyers could make a "hockey trade" for a talented young defenseman whose career is also experiencing less than an exponential growth. Personally, I don't see JVR as a player who will ever consistently perform at all-star level, and the team needs defense more than another skating forward.
JVR could also be the centerpiece of a larger deal for a prominent defensemen.
-Sign a rugged 2/3 line winger to fill JVR's now vacant spot in the top nine. Unfortunately there aren't many such candidates out there on the UFA market, though Shane Doan, Ryan Smyth, Paul Gaustad, Dustin Penner, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Travis Moen and Daniel Winnik might be worth looking into.
-If you can skillfully pull these two things off, the Flyers will still have $3-7 million in cap space to play with, allowing for other signings or taking salary in a trade that could further bolster the defense.
-Make an executive order for system adjustments. I've been beating this drum for a few months. I was really hoping that, as a silver lining to a deep Flyers cup run, would be to buck the trend of tight defense in the NHL today. Alas, look at the teams left in the playoffs; LA (2nd in goals against, and they eliminated VAN and STL who were 4th and 1st respectively), Phoenix (5th), NY (3rd), NJ (9th) and the Caps, who are 21st but only because they started a season with a different coach. Clutch-and-grab is creeping back into the game.
I also believe Bryzgalov will look like a different goalie in a defense-first scheme. This is how he did it in PHX, and his clear weaknesses are side-to-side movement and shot recovery. Defense-first is the way the wind is blowing, and could maximize the talent the Flyers have. Can Lavy make that adjustment? If the team is still leaking goals and looking unspectacular in December, his seat will begin to get hot.
Here is my best guess as to what the Flyers base lineup will be.
Notes to this chart
-Nearly all of these salary numbers are final, except for Bourdon and Voracek. They are RFAs, and I have guessed at salaries for them
-Pronger, Kubina, Carle and Jagr are not in this lineup.
-A salary cap of $69 million, which is a number that has been thrown around. Obviously with the CBA expiring things could get interesting regarding the cap.
THE ISSUES
-Is Jagr coming back?
That is the first question to answer. If the season ended in January, I would say definitely. He looked tired and beat up as the season carried on though, and his role was reduced. Jagr loved everything about playing for the Flyers this year, and he sounds like he wants one more year in the NHL, but he won't sign here unless he feels he will get significant minutes. He signed with the Flyers against expectations last year because he thought it was a good "hockey fit", and he will leave if that "hockey fit" no longer applies.
-The Defense
By signing Grossmann to an extension, the Flyers took care of their top offseason priority in April. That seems like a decent contract, provided his knees hold up. The Flyers still need help back here though, with Pronger seemingly done, and Timonen is at the end of his career, undersized, and has not survived an 82 game season without sustaining performance-inhibiting injuries the last 2 seasons.
I don't think Carle will be back, because someone will be willing to give him $5m+ a year for several years, and I don't think the Flyers should be that team. You never know though with the way Clarke is talking. There's also a (very) small chance Timonen could retire, freeing up his $6.3m salary, and the Flyers could chase Suter for big money.
Lastly, I've seen spitballing the Flyers could trade for someone like Weber, would involve trading significant assets. Such a move fits the Flyers MO, and while it would hurt to trade away more picks and young forwards, a defense corps with Coburn, Carle and Weber could be rock solid for several years. So many variables to that though...
-Size up front
The Flyers score a ton of goals, but their forward corps is small and not very physical. A big body for the 2/3rd line (who plays big) would balance the roster.
-Goaltending
Nothing to discuss here really. Bryzgalov did not have a good year overall, but I expect improvement next year now that he knows what to expect in Philly. His instincts with the media are wrong for the town, but he's figuring it out.
If you recall, at the end of February, Bryzgalov made comments about "finding the peace in his soul" to play in this city. Most commented that this was a very troubling sign reflecting a discouraged player, and I said it was a good sign. For the record, on the day of that comment, Bryzgalov's save percentage stood at .898. After that comment, he had a spectacular month of March and had a .929 save percentage for the remainder of the season. He will still makes gaffes, but now he knows the lay of the land in Philly and will be better for it.
THE PLAN
There are a ton of ways you could go, but this is what I would do:
-Trade JVR, preferably for an up-and-coming dman. I'm not sure what the trade value of JVR is right now, and if it's diminished in the last few months, but surely the Flyers could make a "hockey trade" for a talented young defenseman whose career is also experiencing less than an exponential growth. Personally, I don't see JVR as a player who will ever consistently perform at all-star level, and the team needs defense more than another skating forward.
JVR could also be the centerpiece of a larger deal for a prominent defensemen.
-Sign a rugged 2/3 line winger to fill JVR's now vacant spot in the top nine. Unfortunately there aren't many such candidates out there on the UFA market, though Shane Doan, Ryan Smyth, Paul Gaustad, Dustin Penner, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Travis Moen and Daniel Winnik might be worth looking into.
-If you can skillfully pull these two things off, the Flyers will still have $3-7 million in cap space to play with, allowing for other signings or taking salary in a trade that could further bolster the defense.
-Make an executive order for system adjustments. I've been beating this drum for a few months. I was really hoping that, as a silver lining to a deep Flyers cup run, would be to buck the trend of tight defense in the NHL today. Alas, look at the teams left in the playoffs; LA (2nd in goals against, and they eliminated VAN and STL who were 4th and 1st respectively), Phoenix (5th), NY (3rd), NJ (9th) and the Caps, who are 21st but only because they started a season with a different coach. Clutch-and-grab is creeping back into the game.
I also believe Bryzgalov will look like a different goalie in a defense-first scheme. This is how he did it in PHX, and his clear weaknesses are side-to-side movement and shot recovery. Defense-first is the way the wind is blowing, and could maximize the talent the Flyers have. Can Lavy make that adjustment? If the team is still leaking goals and looking unspectacular in December, his seat will begin to get hot.
Friday, May 11, 2012
Season Review
All playoff exits feel disappointing. Through the ups and downs, fans always convince themselves that their team can win any series. The Flyers flame-out was sudden, but in the long view, it makes a little more sense.
At no point this season did I think the Flyers were really primed for a serious cup run. They were too young up front, having traded away their core forwards. Then things started going pretty well, but Pronger went down. Without Pronger, I thought a long playoff run was precluded.
The Flyers defensive and goaltending struggles reinforced that perception, until March shutouts made me begin to think I could be wrong. The defense showed hope, and they could score whenever they needed to. Eventually however, the gas tank ran dry and ingrained problems caught up to them.
It was a memorable and exciting season, and I could not label this team as underachievers. That's pretty much all you can ask for as a fan.
PLAYER REVIEWS
Forwards:
-Giroux. The burden fell to him to step up with Carter and Richards gone, and he responded with an MVP caliber season that Richards or Carter never produced.
-Briere. A very poor regular season, largely saved by 8 playoff goals. His overall game never really fired on all cylinders though, even in the playoffs.
-Voracek. His 49 points is not all that impressive, but he was a valuable player for the Flyers, and I certainly didn't see anything like conditioning or effort issues that his old CBJ coach criticized him for on the way out. He may never break 25 goals or 65 points, but I could see him being a winger on a quality top line.
-Hartnell. A quiet playoffs shouldn't dilute a career year, and I think he was playing hurt anyway. Consistently energetic, physical, and showed a finishing touch I didn't think he had. All this after a pre-season lost to health concerns and a terrible start.
-Jagr. 54 points in 73 games, veteran leadership, and the self-proclaimed "most enjoyable year" of his career. That qualifies as a success. Jagr did have some nagging groin issues, and his energy level fluctuated throughout the year, so it remains to be seen if he will be back.
-Schenn. 18 points in 54 games is an unimpressive line, but he improved as the season wore on, and I'd go so far as to say he was the Flyers' best player in game 1 of the Pittsburgh series. I expect him to take the next step in his career next year.
-Read. He turned out to be one of the best rookies in the league. 24 goals, played everywhere on the front line, and in all situations. Pretty much ideal.
-Simmonds. Almost doubled his career high in goals, largely due to 11 PP goals. He looks to be a streaky scorer going forward, as he battles and puts himself in good positions but doesn't have very soft hands, his physical initiative will make him a fan favorite.
-Talbot. Gave the Flyers everything they could hope for. A lunchpail player and team guy, he went from 8 goals last season with Pittsburgh to 19 this year, and he and Giroux were lethal shorthanded in the playoffs.
-Couturier. Surpassed all expectations this season, with 13 goals and logged big minutes in the playoffs. Remarkable for an 18 year old, I could not identify any clear deficiencies in his game. What a draft day steal, he could be a key player for the Flyers for a long time.
-Wellwood. Nothing spectacular, but a young, speedy player that should be an asset for bottom lines and depth next year.
-Rinaldo. Did all that could be asked of him. Not a high skill guy, he successfully brought a lot of energy and spark to the Flyers. He will have to continue to work on his discipline, though in his defense, he is clearly targeted by the officials and is on the short end of a lot of marginal calls.
-JVR. I think JVR had a very disappointing season. Yes, he had injuries, and his point production was decent before all the injuries. Still, I wrote that his early stat line flattered his play even before all the injuries, and there's no escaping the reality of the 11g, 13a, 43gp for a player who was supposed to score 30+ goals this year. He was very good in game 1 against NJ, but did little else in that series.
-Shelley. Yes, he is still on this team.
Defense:
-Timonen. Another year of wear and tear on Timonen's body, he still was able to be the Flyers top defensemen this year. Injuries severely limited him in the playoffs.
-Meszaros. Was inconsistent all year, never finding the form he had most of last season. Then his season was cut short by an injury. Maybe next year will be a bounce back season.
-Coburn. Unremarkable regular season, but logged huge minutes in the playoffs.
-Grossmann. The strong, defense-first, shot-blocking defenseman the team needed. He has bad knees though, so let's hope they hold up.
-Carle. The team's de facto number 1 defensemen this year, covering a lot of territory and eating minutes. A very good chance that his time as a Flyers is over, however.
-Kubina. He could not provide the reliable veteran presence the team was looking for---too old and slow, and picked up some injuries too. Little chance of him returning.
-Pronger. His season never really started, and his career may be over. It's a shame his time with the Flyers was so short-lived.
-Gustafsson. He really made some nice strides this season, though he could struggle at times. Skilled and smart, but undersized. It will be interesting to see what he can do next year in extended time.
-Bourdon. Another pleasant surprise, as his career seemed to have stalled in the minors. Looks like he might have an NHL future yet.
-Lilja. Seldom used in the regular season, played decently in the playoffs. Too old and slow to play a significant role.
Goalies:
-Bryzgalov. Things did not go as planned, though he was amazing in March. Too inconsistent and gaffe prone, but on and off the ice. Seemingly has some growing up to do, though a full season in Philly under his belt will help. Expectations will remain high with his 9 year contract. I am optimistic.
-Bobrovsky. Started the season strong, but on the whole did not take the next step in his career this year. Now heading into the last year of his contract with the Flyers.
At no point this season did I think the Flyers were really primed for a serious cup run. They were too young up front, having traded away their core forwards. Then things started going pretty well, but Pronger went down. Without Pronger, I thought a long playoff run was precluded.
The Flyers defensive and goaltending struggles reinforced that perception, until March shutouts made me begin to think I could be wrong. The defense showed hope, and they could score whenever they needed to. Eventually however, the gas tank ran dry and ingrained problems caught up to them.
It was a memorable and exciting season, and I could not label this team as underachievers. That's pretty much all you can ask for as a fan.
PLAYER REVIEWS
Forwards:
-Giroux. The burden fell to him to step up with Carter and Richards gone, and he responded with an MVP caliber season that Richards or Carter never produced.
-Briere. A very poor regular season, largely saved by 8 playoff goals. His overall game never really fired on all cylinders though, even in the playoffs.
-Voracek. His 49 points is not all that impressive, but he was a valuable player for the Flyers, and I certainly didn't see anything like conditioning or effort issues that his old CBJ coach criticized him for on the way out. He may never break 25 goals or 65 points, but I could see him being a winger on a quality top line.
-Hartnell. A quiet playoffs shouldn't dilute a career year, and I think he was playing hurt anyway. Consistently energetic, physical, and showed a finishing touch I didn't think he had. All this after a pre-season lost to health concerns and a terrible start.
-Jagr. 54 points in 73 games, veteran leadership, and the self-proclaimed "most enjoyable year" of his career. That qualifies as a success. Jagr did have some nagging groin issues, and his energy level fluctuated throughout the year, so it remains to be seen if he will be back.
-Schenn. 18 points in 54 games is an unimpressive line, but he improved as the season wore on, and I'd go so far as to say he was the Flyers' best player in game 1 of the Pittsburgh series. I expect him to take the next step in his career next year.
-Read. He turned out to be one of the best rookies in the league. 24 goals, played everywhere on the front line, and in all situations. Pretty much ideal.
-Simmonds. Almost doubled his career high in goals, largely due to 11 PP goals. He looks to be a streaky scorer going forward, as he battles and puts himself in good positions but doesn't have very soft hands, his physical initiative will make him a fan favorite.
-Talbot. Gave the Flyers everything they could hope for. A lunchpail player and team guy, he went from 8 goals last season with Pittsburgh to 19 this year, and he and Giroux were lethal shorthanded in the playoffs.
-Couturier. Surpassed all expectations this season, with 13 goals and logged big minutes in the playoffs. Remarkable for an 18 year old, I could not identify any clear deficiencies in his game. What a draft day steal, he could be a key player for the Flyers for a long time.
-Wellwood. Nothing spectacular, but a young, speedy player that should be an asset for bottom lines and depth next year.
-Rinaldo. Did all that could be asked of him. Not a high skill guy, he successfully brought a lot of energy and spark to the Flyers. He will have to continue to work on his discipline, though in his defense, he is clearly targeted by the officials and is on the short end of a lot of marginal calls.
-JVR. I think JVR had a very disappointing season. Yes, he had injuries, and his point production was decent before all the injuries. Still, I wrote that his early stat line flattered his play even before all the injuries, and there's no escaping the reality of the 11g, 13a, 43gp for a player who was supposed to score 30+ goals this year. He was very good in game 1 against NJ, but did little else in that series.
-Shelley. Yes, he is still on this team.
Defense:
-Timonen. Another year of wear and tear on Timonen's body, he still was able to be the Flyers top defensemen this year. Injuries severely limited him in the playoffs.
-Meszaros. Was inconsistent all year, never finding the form he had most of last season. Then his season was cut short by an injury. Maybe next year will be a bounce back season.
-Coburn. Unremarkable regular season, but logged huge minutes in the playoffs.
-Grossmann. The strong, defense-first, shot-blocking defenseman the team needed. He has bad knees though, so let's hope they hold up.
-Carle. The team's de facto number 1 defensemen this year, covering a lot of territory and eating minutes. A very good chance that his time as a Flyers is over, however.
-Kubina. He could not provide the reliable veteran presence the team was looking for---too old and slow, and picked up some injuries too. Little chance of him returning.
-Pronger. His season never really started, and his career may be over. It's a shame his time with the Flyers was so short-lived.
-Gustafsson. He really made some nice strides this season, though he could struggle at times. Skilled and smart, but undersized. It will be interesting to see what he can do next year in extended time.
-Bourdon. Another pleasant surprise, as his career seemed to have stalled in the minors. Looks like he might have an NHL future yet.
-Lilja. Seldom used in the regular season, played decently in the playoffs. Too old and slow to play a significant role.
Goalies:
-Bryzgalov. Things did not go as planned, though he was amazing in March. Too inconsistent and gaffe prone, but on and off the ice. Seemingly has some growing up to do, though a full season in Philly under his belt will help. Expectations will remain high with his 9 year contract. I am optimistic.
-Bobrovsky. Started the season strong, but on the whole did not take the next step in his career this year. Now heading into the last year of his contract with the Flyers.
Friday, March 2, 2012
Defensemen Statistical Performance
Hockey is hard sport to capture in numbers, and defensemen is probably the position that is the most difficult. People tend to caught up in points, which makes sense, but there are other numbers out there that may be informative. Below is a table of Flyers defensemen performance this season.
I visually separated Kubina and Grossman because those stat lines largely reflect their time on another team, so it's not apples to apples comparisons. I also focus on the rates these players accrue stats per minute played.
Some things are obvious--Meszaros shoots a lot, Timonen limits turnovers, Grossman never shoots...etc There are some interesting tidbits in there though.
-Coburn excels at the giveaway/takeaway balance, but he blocks very few shots and misses the net constantly on his shots.
-Of the Flyers' regulars, Carle has the highest percentage of shots on net, and blocks the most shots. That is unexpected.
-Kubina and Grossman block more shots than any Flyers defensemen. That may be inflated by their time away from the Flyers, but it is noteworthy.
-Meszaros and Coburn have the most takeaways, but those two also are the worst shot blockers. This makes sense with Meszaros' active game, but is surprising with Coburn who plays more passively and does not produce offense.
Some things are obvious--Meszaros shoots a lot, Timonen limits turnovers, Grossman never shoots...etc There are some interesting tidbits in there though.
-Coburn excels at the giveaway/takeaway balance, but he blocks very few shots and misses the net constantly on his shots.
-Of the Flyers' regulars, Carle has the highest percentage of shots on net, and blocks the most shots. That is unexpected.
-Kubina and Grossman block more shots than any Flyers defensemen. That may be inflated by their time away from the Flyers, but it is noteworthy.
-Meszaros and Coburn have the most takeaways, but those two also are the worst shot blockers. This makes sense with Meszaros' active game, but is surprising with Coburn who plays more passively and does not produce offense.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Midseason Player Reviews
I don't like rating players by grades, and there's no use denying every player faces different expectations and different roles. I'm going to simply assume some degree of subjective expectations and rate players with a stock-rating flavor.
Outperform
-Claude Giroux. No brainer here. Last season he looked like a promising young center, but was arguably the 4th most visible center on the team. With Richards and Carter traded to make room for a goalie, Giroux faced a lot of pressure to be the offensive lynchpin. He has responded with an MVP caliber season.
-Jaromir Jagr. Sticking with Giroux's line, no one was sure how Jagr would perform after three season out of the NHL. 50 points? 60 points? He still couldn't do a point a game, could he? Apparently yes. After a slow start, he found his legs and has looked fantastic, and is a key offensive player for the Flyers. Nagging injuries are the only thing slowing him down now.
-Scott Hartnell. And now to complete the Giroux line! Hartnell got off to a very rocky start, missing preseason time due to medical tests, and his place in the lineup was very much at risk with 2 points in 7 games and Simmonds on the top PP unit. Placing him with Jagr and Giroux has been magic, as every player has looked better since this trio was complete. Hartnell has 35 points in 34 games since then.
-Matt Read. On pace for 25+ goals, and an offensive factor every night. What more could the Flyers want from him?
-Jake Voracek. His pace of ~50 points isn't going to turn many heads, and is line with his career averages, however I think he is playing better than that. Didn't start off great, but he is up on his skates attacking the defense every night. It's not a coincidence that the Flyers go on win streaks when he is playing his best. Early in the season I talked about Jagr replacing Leino's offensive contribution, but it's actually been Voracek carrying the puck, making plays, contributing what the Flyers would've hoped for from Leino.
-Kimmo Timonen. He has played big minutes and piled up the points, and looks to produce at a rate not seen since his best years in Nashville.
-Max Talbot. Has played reliably all over the lineup, and at midseason is already near career highs in goal scoring and points.
-Sean Couturier. I didn't listen to scouts early this year when they nearly unanimously predicted Cooter would make the big team. I looked at the roster and though, nah. Instead, Cooter has simply made it impossible to take him out of the lineup, playing like a veteran.
-Harry Zolneirczyk. Despite being sent down early in the season, he has come back and looked great on the 4th line--energetic with occasional scoring. Thumbs up, though to maintain a role like this in the NHL he will have to have an increased role on the PK.
-Zac Rinaldo. I was pretty skeptical of this wild man coming into the season. Although he seems targeted by officials, he has general kept it under control, potted a goal here or there, and aggressively sought contact on the ice.
-Marc-Andre Bourdon. His ascent to the NHL hasn't really gone like many in the organization may have hoped, but he has played within himself and looked like he belongs in the NHL.
Market Perform
-Danny Briere. A pretty ho-hum regular season for Briere. He's been there for some key goals, but hasn't looked consistently dangerous and is on pace for his lowest point totals for a full season as a Flyer (when healthy). I am giving him somewhat of a pass due to raising his game in the playoffs the last two years, and the expectation that he will do it again.
-Matt Carle. Carle continues to hum along, playing big minutes and getting decent point totals. I still say he has the worst shot on the team though, so there's always that to infuriate Flyers fans when he gets so many chances with skating and awareness on the ice.
-Wayne Simmonds. Simmonds teased Flyers fans early this year and preseason with some offensive skill, however Flyer fans have seen some stone hands since then. Simmonds is always battling out there, but his offense probably will never be more than occasional and streaky.
-Braydon Coburn. Quiet but largely steady from Braydon.
-Sergei Bobrovsky. Bob continues to progress nicely, and currently sports a much better stat line than Bryzgalov. He probably deserves a chance to get some starts and be given a chance to run with it.
-Andreas Lilja. Doing exactly what was expected; old and slow, occasionally physical defensemen.
Underperform
-Brayden Schenn. I don't like putting him here, as when I see him play I see a skilled and intelligent player, and injuries never really gave him a chance. Still, on January 1, there he was with 0 points and -7 in 8 games. Hopefully, the second half will treat him better (and the signs are already good).
-James Van Riemsdyk. Looking at a low 40s point season, and is not visible many nights. This is even when I commented earlier this season that his points line flatters his play. He was supposed to progress more than this by this point.
-Andrej Meszaros. The team's best defensemen last year, he struggled early. His play has improved, but his overall body of work is not what Flyers fans were hoping for.
-Ilya Bryzgalov. If you've read this blog, or even followed the Flyers at all, do I need to say anything? Not playing like the top goalie the Flyers signed him to be. He still can figure it out though.
-Jody Shelley. Yes, he is still on this team.
No Rating
Chris Pronger, Erik Gustafsson
Outperform
-Claude Giroux. No brainer here. Last season he looked like a promising young center, but was arguably the 4th most visible center on the team. With Richards and Carter traded to make room for a goalie, Giroux faced a lot of pressure to be the offensive lynchpin. He has responded with an MVP caliber season.
-Jaromir Jagr. Sticking with Giroux's line, no one was sure how Jagr would perform after three season out of the NHL. 50 points? 60 points? He still couldn't do a point a game, could he? Apparently yes. After a slow start, he found his legs and has looked fantastic, and is a key offensive player for the Flyers. Nagging injuries are the only thing slowing him down now.
-Scott Hartnell. And now to complete the Giroux line! Hartnell got off to a very rocky start, missing preseason time due to medical tests, and his place in the lineup was very much at risk with 2 points in 7 games and Simmonds on the top PP unit. Placing him with Jagr and Giroux has been magic, as every player has looked better since this trio was complete. Hartnell has 35 points in 34 games since then.
-Matt Read. On pace for 25+ goals, and an offensive factor every night. What more could the Flyers want from him?
-Jake Voracek. His pace of ~50 points isn't going to turn many heads, and is line with his career averages, however I think he is playing better than that. Didn't start off great, but he is up on his skates attacking the defense every night. It's not a coincidence that the Flyers go on win streaks when he is playing his best. Early in the season I talked about Jagr replacing Leino's offensive contribution, but it's actually been Voracek carrying the puck, making plays, contributing what the Flyers would've hoped for from Leino.
-Kimmo Timonen. He has played big minutes and piled up the points, and looks to produce at a rate not seen since his best years in Nashville.
-Max Talbot. Has played reliably all over the lineup, and at midseason is already near career highs in goal scoring and points.
-Sean Couturier. I didn't listen to scouts early this year when they nearly unanimously predicted Cooter would make the big team. I looked at the roster and though, nah. Instead, Cooter has simply made it impossible to take him out of the lineup, playing like a veteran.
-Harry Zolneirczyk. Despite being sent down early in the season, he has come back and looked great on the 4th line--energetic with occasional scoring. Thumbs up, though to maintain a role like this in the NHL he will have to have an increased role on the PK.
-Zac Rinaldo. I was pretty skeptical of this wild man coming into the season. Although he seems targeted by officials, he has general kept it under control, potted a goal here or there, and aggressively sought contact on the ice.
-Marc-Andre Bourdon. His ascent to the NHL hasn't really gone like many in the organization may have hoped, but he has played within himself and looked like he belongs in the NHL.
Market Perform
-Danny Briere. A pretty ho-hum regular season for Briere. He's been there for some key goals, but hasn't looked consistently dangerous and is on pace for his lowest point totals for a full season as a Flyer (when healthy). I am giving him somewhat of a pass due to raising his game in the playoffs the last two years, and the expectation that he will do it again.
-Matt Carle. Carle continues to hum along, playing big minutes and getting decent point totals. I still say he has the worst shot on the team though, so there's always that to infuriate Flyers fans when he gets so many chances with skating and awareness on the ice.
-Wayne Simmonds. Simmonds teased Flyers fans early this year and preseason with some offensive skill, however Flyer fans have seen some stone hands since then. Simmonds is always battling out there, but his offense probably will never be more than occasional and streaky.
-Braydon Coburn. Quiet but largely steady from Braydon.
-Sergei Bobrovsky. Bob continues to progress nicely, and currently sports a much better stat line than Bryzgalov. He probably deserves a chance to get some starts and be given a chance to run with it.
-Andreas Lilja. Doing exactly what was expected; old and slow, occasionally physical defensemen.
Underperform
-Brayden Schenn. I don't like putting him here, as when I see him play I see a skilled and intelligent player, and injuries never really gave him a chance. Still, on January 1, there he was with 0 points and -7 in 8 games. Hopefully, the second half will treat him better (and the signs are already good).
-James Van Riemsdyk. Looking at a low 40s point season, and is not visible many nights. This is even when I commented earlier this season that his points line flatters his play. He was supposed to progress more than this by this point.
-Andrej Meszaros. The team's best defensemen last year, he struggled early. His play has improved, but his overall body of work is not what Flyers fans were hoping for.
-Ilya Bryzgalov. If you've read this blog, or even followed the Flyers at all, do I need to say anything? Not playing like the top goalie the Flyers signed him to be. He still can figure it out though.
-Jody Shelley. Yes, he is still on this team.
No Rating
Chris Pronger, Erik Gustafsson
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
The Most Interesting Offseason in the World
The free agent frenzy is quieting down now, and you can take stock of most things.
The big point overall is that UFAs this year made a killing. Players were getting 30% more than a comparable player would've gotten 2 years ago. I think it's mostly due the to fact that it was a generally weak free agent group coming in a year where the salary cap increased more than expected. And then you have a team like Florida spending money like a drunken sailor in a whorehouse on decent but unspectacular players simply to get to the cap floor that compounded the perverted market.
For the Flyers, the Extreme Makeover continues. Out with the Canadian golden boys, in with puck possession eastern europeans, a Russian goalie, and a black guy. Despite a bunch of rumors of something bigger like Brad Richards, Stamkos, or a big trade, the Flyers mostly stuck to the expected game plan. Mostly.
The most "predictable" move was adding a 3rd/4th line character guy. The Flyers needed some experience in that area, and the team has commented that they need a "new Laperriere" to provide leadership and character in that role. Max Talbot seems to fit that bill, the only surprise being that he comes from the Penguins.
Speaking of the Penguins, there was that signing of Jagr the other day. Now nearly everyone expected the Flyers to be looking at wingers, maybe Erik Cole or Michael Ryder, but no one was taking about Jagr to the Flyers until the day before free agency. Apparently the Flyers pursuit of him didn't even start until then until Holmgren speculatively sent a text to former flyer Petr Svoboda, who is the agent for Jagr and Voracek.
Jagr will be a very interesting case. He'll turn 40 in midseason and will not be the dominant player of old, but he's remained productive in Russia and is coming off a very strong World Championships performance. It's easy to question whether an aging temperamental Euro star is a right fit on the Flyers, but Jagr seems more dedicated to training and staying in shape than ever before. Also he apparently did his homework and chose the Flyers (which were not the richest offer) after talking to the coaches and players. There's lots of reasons to be hopeful that Jagr will have a productive season, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him hit 60 points this season.
Lastly, there is the signing of Andreas Lilja. A cheap, depth defensemen for the 6/7 role.
Other Signings:
-Handzus to SJ for $2.5x2 years. Early in the day it was reported that the Flyers had signed Handzus, to which I was receptive. He would be a big centermen to play on the third line and would be a decent fit at the right price. Seems to me SJ got a good deal here for an aging though still valuable centermen.
-Upshall to Florida for $3.5x4. Wow, the first of many big overpayments on the day. This signing was the perfect marriage of a player who's not quite as good as he thinks he is (career highs; 22 goals and 34 points) with a team looking to overpay to get to the cap floor.
-Leino to Buffalo for $4.5x6. This is an outright shocker. I don't blame the Flyers for holding steady at a $3m deal, though I suspected someone else would come along and offer more. Just not that much more. Calendar year 2010 Leino, who scored 21 points in 19 playoff games and had a very strong first half of the ensuing regular season, was a player worthy of a deal approaching $4m a season. Calendar year 2011 Leino, not so much. While Leino is younger and better defensively than Jagr (though he's still not great defensively himself), what are the odds the Flyers get more points and goals from Jagr at $3.3m this year than Buffalo gets from Leino at $4.5?
-Cole to Montreal for $4.5x4. This is the guy who I wanted on the Flyers, and while that's not an outrageous price, it was still too high for the Flyers to entertain.
-Connolly to Leafs for $4.75x2. Connolly is a talented player who plays at near a point/game pace when healthy, but when is he ever healthy? He's only played 70 games once since the lockout, and here are his point totals the last 5 seasons; 1, 40, 47, 65, 42. This is a $5 million player now? At least it's only a 2 year deal.
-Vokoun to the Caps for $1.5x1. An outright steal for the Caps, as he fell into their laps when he didn't find a big money deal on July 1 and looked for a contender to join. Of course the Flyers could not have entered free agency and expected to get Vokoun for anywhere near this amount, but it still hurts to watch a competitor get such a quality goalie for so little salary, even if it was just luck.
Up Next for the Flyers:
-The Flyers don't have much cap space left. They likely have $3m or so in cap space left after signing Simmonds and making expected cuts, but they still need to carry a 19th or 20th skater and leave a little cap buffer.
-There are rumors the Flyers are sniffing around Jason Arnott. He would be of similar interest to the Flyers for the same reason as Handzus; a big third line center at this point of his career. He might want too much money though.
-The Stamkos rumors never go away with the Flyers. The latest is Schenn, Bobrovsky and 1st rounder for Stamkos. If there was no salary cap and this was purely about hockey, I definitely do this deal. Given the cap restraints however, the Flyers will likely have to dump more salary to fit Stamkos in (Hartnell or Carle maybe), and would not be in great shape next offseason allocating raises to JVR and Coburn, so it's ultimately a tough call. This is assuming of course the rumors are accurate and Stamkos doesn't simply resign with the Lightning.
The big point overall is that UFAs this year made a killing. Players were getting 30% more than a comparable player would've gotten 2 years ago. I think it's mostly due the to fact that it was a generally weak free agent group coming in a year where the salary cap increased more than expected. And then you have a team like Florida spending money like a drunken sailor in a whorehouse on decent but unspectacular players simply to get to the cap floor that compounded the perverted market.
For the Flyers, the Extreme Makeover continues. Out with the Canadian golden boys, in with puck possession eastern europeans, a Russian goalie, and a black guy. Despite a bunch of rumors of something bigger like Brad Richards, Stamkos, or a big trade, the Flyers mostly stuck to the expected game plan. Mostly.
The most "predictable" move was adding a 3rd/4th line character guy. The Flyers needed some experience in that area, and the team has commented that they need a "new Laperriere" to provide leadership and character in that role. Max Talbot seems to fit that bill, the only surprise being that he comes from the Penguins.
Speaking of the Penguins, there was that signing of Jagr the other day. Now nearly everyone expected the Flyers to be looking at wingers, maybe Erik Cole or Michael Ryder, but no one was taking about Jagr to the Flyers until the day before free agency. Apparently the Flyers pursuit of him didn't even start until then until Holmgren speculatively sent a text to former flyer Petr Svoboda, who is the agent for Jagr and Voracek.
Jagr will be a very interesting case. He'll turn 40 in midseason and will not be the dominant player of old, but he's remained productive in Russia and is coming off a very strong World Championships performance. It's easy to question whether an aging temperamental Euro star is a right fit on the Flyers, but Jagr seems more dedicated to training and staying in shape than ever before. Also he apparently did his homework and chose the Flyers (which were not the richest offer) after talking to the coaches and players. There's lots of reasons to be hopeful that Jagr will have a productive season, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him hit 60 points this season.
Lastly, there is the signing of Andreas Lilja. A cheap, depth defensemen for the 6/7 role.
Other Signings:
-Handzus to SJ for $2.5x2 years. Early in the day it was reported that the Flyers had signed Handzus, to which I was receptive. He would be a big centermen to play on the third line and would be a decent fit at the right price. Seems to me SJ got a good deal here for an aging though still valuable centermen.
-Upshall to Florida for $3.5x4. Wow, the first of many big overpayments on the day. This signing was the perfect marriage of a player who's not quite as good as he thinks he is (career highs; 22 goals and 34 points) with a team looking to overpay to get to the cap floor.
-Leino to Buffalo for $4.5x6. This is an outright shocker. I don't blame the Flyers for holding steady at a $3m deal, though I suspected someone else would come along and offer more. Just not that much more. Calendar year 2010 Leino, who scored 21 points in 19 playoff games and had a very strong first half of the ensuing regular season, was a player worthy of a deal approaching $4m a season. Calendar year 2011 Leino, not so much. While Leino is younger and better defensively than Jagr (though he's still not great defensively himself), what are the odds the Flyers get more points and goals from Jagr at $3.3m this year than Buffalo gets from Leino at $4.5?
-Cole to Montreal for $4.5x4. This is the guy who I wanted on the Flyers, and while that's not an outrageous price, it was still too high for the Flyers to entertain.
-Connolly to Leafs for $4.75x2. Connolly is a talented player who plays at near a point/game pace when healthy, but when is he ever healthy? He's only played 70 games once since the lockout, and here are his point totals the last 5 seasons; 1, 40, 47, 65, 42. This is a $5 million player now? At least it's only a 2 year deal.
-Vokoun to the Caps for $1.5x1. An outright steal for the Caps, as he fell into their laps when he didn't find a big money deal on July 1 and looked for a contender to join. Of course the Flyers could not have entered free agency and expected to get Vokoun for anywhere near this amount, but it still hurts to watch a competitor get such a quality goalie for so little salary, even if it was just luck.
Up Next for the Flyers:
-The Flyers don't have much cap space left. They likely have $3m or so in cap space left after signing Simmonds and making expected cuts, but they still need to carry a 19th or 20th skater and leave a little cap buffer.
-There are rumors the Flyers are sniffing around Jason Arnott. He would be of similar interest to the Flyers for the same reason as Handzus; a big third line center at this point of his career. He might want too much money though.
-The Stamkos rumors never go away with the Flyers. The latest is Schenn, Bobrovsky and 1st rounder for Stamkos. If there was no salary cap and this was purely about hockey, I definitely do this deal. Given the cap restraints however, the Flyers will likely have to dump more salary to fit Stamkos in (Hartnell or Carle maybe), and would not be in great shape next offseason allocating raises to JVR and Coburn, so it's ultimately a tough call. This is assuming of course the rumors are accurate and Stamkos doesn't simply resign with the Lightning.
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Signing Bryzgalov
There is no progress to report on the Flyers signing Bryzgalov, and it will be no trivial task. That said, giving the way the season ended and the trade for Bryzgalov's rights, I have to think the Flyers are going to do what it takes to get this done. Substantive talks should take place this week, so we'll have to check on things on Friday.
So what will he sign for? The more I think about it, I could see the Flyers going longer term to get the cap hit down. I previously said I though he would sign for $6-6.5m. Now I think that for every year the Flyers add beyond 4 years to the deal, the yearly cap hit will come down a little. Maybe 6-7 years for between $5-5.7m is coming.
Assuming a deal gets done, the fun question is what will the Flyers do to create cap space? I'm going to assume the Flyers sign Bryz for $5.7, give minimal raises to Powe and Nodl, and let Leino walk away. That puts the Flyers payroll at $63 million with 11 forwards and 5 defensemen. Obviously things have to go, and these are the options;
-First thing, Carter could go. I've previously addressed this, and I'd be very open to it because I think that represents the Flyers trading from a position of strength to get a large return and clear $5.27m.
-Second, you've got to think very hard about trading Bobrovsky. It doesn't make sense for the Flyers to carry the second-most expensive backup in the league, at a cap hit at $1.75m. Also, by merit of playing 60 games this season, Bobrovsky must clear waivers before he can be sent down to the AHL, so that's no longer an option. I have no problem with Bobrovsky learning the NHL game as a backup for a season or two, but that doesn't work if Bryzgalov is signed to 5+ years.
-Third, Versteeg has not been worth his ~$3m cap hit. The only drawback to trading Versteeg is that he doesn't command much trade value, and the Flyers just gave up a 1st and 3rd round pick to get him. Oh well, that's not a reason to keep him though.
-Fourth, some sources say the Flyers would rather trade Richards than Carter. He would give about the same cap relief as trading Carter, though personally, I would rather trade Carter for many reasons.
-Fifth, I am open to trading Carle, and I have previously evaluated his strengths and weaknesses. For all his shortcomings however, he eats up a lot of 5-on-5 minutes, and the health of Pronger and Timonen is less than robust. That should give the Flyers some pause before trading away a proven NHL defensemen.
So what should the Flyers be looking for in return? Generally they should want high draft picks, a top defensive prospect, and/or a rugged winger.
It would be impossible to predict a particular deal, however some possibilities are emerging.
-One possible trade partner is Florida. Tallon is the new GM there, and he previously had Versteeg in Chicago, and may be interested in acquiring him. They are also well under the cap-floor, so they have to add salary, and have no starting goalie under contract for next year. Lastly, they have many pieces the Flyers may be interested in; Markstrom is a top goalie prospect, Gudbranson is a top defensive prospect who should be NHL-ready sooner rather than later, and they also have #3 pick.
-There have already been rumors of the Blue Jackets trading the #8 pick and other pieces (Voracek?) for Carter. I think the spine of that deal isn't too bad, with the Flyers getting a very high pick and a young physical winger.
-Edmonton has the #1 pick, and is looking for a high-end center.
-Colorado picks at #2 and #11, and their situation in net is unsettled.
The easiest way for the Flyers to open up some cap room is to trade Versteeg for little value, or see who may want Bobrovsky. What actually shakes out though, is anyone's guess.
So what will he sign for? The more I think about it, I could see the Flyers going longer term to get the cap hit down. I previously said I though he would sign for $6-6.5m. Now I think that for every year the Flyers add beyond 4 years to the deal, the yearly cap hit will come down a little. Maybe 6-7 years for between $5-5.7m is coming.
Assuming a deal gets done, the fun question is what will the Flyers do to create cap space? I'm going to assume the Flyers sign Bryz for $5.7, give minimal raises to Powe and Nodl, and let Leino walk away. That puts the Flyers payroll at $63 million with 11 forwards and 5 defensemen. Obviously things have to go, and these are the options;
-First thing, Carter could go. I've previously addressed this, and I'd be very open to it because I think that represents the Flyers trading from a position of strength to get a large return and clear $5.27m.
-Second, you've got to think very hard about trading Bobrovsky. It doesn't make sense for the Flyers to carry the second-most expensive backup in the league, at a cap hit at $1.75m. Also, by merit of playing 60 games this season, Bobrovsky must clear waivers before he can be sent down to the AHL, so that's no longer an option. I have no problem with Bobrovsky learning the NHL game as a backup for a season or two, but that doesn't work if Bryzgalov is signed to 5+ years.
-Third, Versteeg has not been worth his ~$3m cap hit. The only drawback to trading Versteeg is that he doesn't command much trade value, and the Flyers just gave up a 1st and 3rd round pick to get him. Oh well, that's not a reason to keep him though.
-Fourth, some sources say the Flyers would rather trade Richards than Carter. He would give about the same cap relief as trading Carter, though personally, I would rather trade Carter for many reasons.
-Fifth, I am open to trading Carle, and I have previously evaluated his strengths and weaknesses. For all his shortcomings however, he eats up a lot of 5-on-5 minutes, and the health of Pronger and Timonen is less than robust. That should give the Flyers some pause before trading away a proven NHL defensemen.
So what should the Flyers be looking for in return? Generally they should want high draft picks, a top defensive prospect, and/or a rugged winger.
It would be impossible to predict a particular deal, however some possibilities are emerging.
-One possible trade partner is Florida. Tallon is the new GM there, and he previously had Versteeg in Chicago, and may be interested in acquiring him. They are also well under the cap-floor, so they have to add salary, and have no starting goalie under contract for next year. Lastly, they have many pieces the Flyers may be interested in; Markstrom is a top goalie prospect, Gudbranson is a top defensive prospect who should be NHL-ready sooner rather than later, and they also have #3 pick.
-There have already been rumors of the Blue Jackets trading the #8 pick and other pieces (Voracek?) for Carter. I think the spine of that deal isn't too bad, with the Flyers getting a very high pick and a young physical winger.
-Edmonton has the #1 pick, and is looking for a high-end center.
-Colorado picks at #2 and #11, and their situation in net is unsettled.
The easiest way for the Flyers to open up some cap room is to trade Versteeg for little value, or see who may want Bobrovsky. What actually shakes out though, is anyone's guess.
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Flyers trade for Bryzgalov's rights
The Flyers have acquired Ilya Bryzgalov (due to become a free agent on July 1) for Matt Clackson, a 3rd round pick next year, and a conditional pick.
No one will notice Clackson being gone, but the Flyers give up another (possibly 2) decent picks.
As for Bryzgalov, as I already stated, I think he is the best goalie out there, having high-end ability and entering the prime of his career. I wasn't sure if he made sense for the Flyers because he is going to want a long-term, high salary deal. Some inside sources regarding Bryzgalov's negotiations with Phoenix before they traded him;
One can only hope he didn't really want to sign with Phoenix, and his demands with the Flyers will be reasonable. I will be stunned if he signs here for less than 4 years at $5m/year. I would actually predict he will sign at 4 or 5 years, approximately $6/year (if not a little more).
This raises a few questions;
1) Who else are the Flyers going to trade now? Even if you assume the Flyers will not carry Zherdev, Carcillo, Nodl, Powe, Laperriere, Walker, O'Donnell and Leighton on the books, the Flyers already still have over $56m committed to players next season. Simply signing Bryzgalov will eat up all of their currently available cap space (once the cap for next season is announced at between $62 and $63 million--the Flyers can't sign Bryzgalov until that announcement is made because he will put them over the current cap of $59.4m). At that point, the Flyers will only have 9 forwards (no Leino) and 6 defensemen, so they will need to dump at least $5m in cap space just to fill out the roster.
One has to think the Flyers already have another trade lined up to clear salary, or else they wouldn't have pulled the trigger on this Bryzgalov trade yet. Carter is the guy everyone is talking about, which makes sense. I would throw Carle into the fray too, but I don't hear his name come up in rumors very often.
2) Does this say anything about Bobrovsky? His path to the number 1 job will be blocked for several seasons. Have the Flyers soured on him? I guess they could send him to the AHL for a season, though that's probably unlikely. Most likely is that the team simply decided "screw this, we need a goalie" and they'll worry about Bob later.
3) Should the Flyers be worried about mediocre postseason performances by Bryzgalov in Phoenix? I don't think so. He played just fine in the postseason for the Ducks, and his career postseason save percentage in the playoffs is higher than his regular season number. The Coyotes were hardly a team primed for postseason runs, and he was one of the biggest reasons they got there in the first place.
Long story short, this is very exciting news for the Flyers. They've got a very good goalie within their grasp, but this trade cannot be judged until Bryzgalov actually signs a contract with the Flyers and we also see what the Flyers send out the door in a subsequent trade. Also, it's very difficult to see Leino resigning now, unless the Flyers dump Carter AND another significant contract.
No one will notice Clackson being gone, but the Flyers give up another (possibly 2) decent picks.
As for Bryzgalov, as I already stated, I think he is the best goalie out there, having high-end ability and entering the prime of his career. I wasn't sure if he made sense for the Flyers because he is going to want a long-term, high salary deal. Some inside sources regarding Bryzgalov's negotiations with Phoenix before they traded him;
Am told by source that Bryzgalov contract demands with Coyotes were off the charts
Bryzgalov wants to be paid as a top player...not just a top goalie. Demands too rich for Yotes.
One can only hope he didn't really want to sign with Phoenix, and his demands with the Flyers will be reasonable. I will be stunned if he signs here for less than 4 years at $5m/year. I would actually predict he will sign at 4 or 5 years, approximately $6/year (if not a little more).
This raises a few questions;
1) Who else are the Flyers going to trade now? Even if you assume the Flyers will not carry Zherdev, Carcillo, Nodl, Powe, Laperriere, Walker, O'Donnell and Leighton on the books, the Flyers already still have over $56m committed to players next season. Simply signing Bryzgalov will eat up all of their currently available cap space (once the cap for next season is announced at between $62 and $63 million--the Flyers can't sign Bryzgalov until that announcement is made because he will put them over the current cap of $59.4m). At that point, the Flyers will only have 9 forwards (no Leino) and 6 defensemen, so they will need to dump at least $5m in cap space just to fill out the roster.
One has to think the Flyers already have another trade lined up to clear salary, or else they wouldn't have pulled the trigger on this Bryzgalov trade yet. Carter is the guy everyone is talking about, which makes sense. I would throw Carle into the fray too, but I don't hear his name come up in rumors very often.
2) Does this say anything about Bobrovsky? His path to the number 1 job will be blocked for several seasons. Have the Flyers soured on him? I guess they could send him to the AHL for a season, though that's probably unlikely. Most likely is that the team simply decided "screw this, we need a goalie" and they'll worry about Bob later.
3) Should the Flyers be worried about mediocre postseason performances by Bryzgalov in Phoenix? I don't think so. He played just fine in the postseason for the Ducks, and his career postseason save percentage in the playoffs is higher than his regular season number. The Coyotes were hardly a team primed for postseason runs, and he was one of the biggest reasons they got there in the first place.
Long story short, this is very exciting news for the Flyers. They've got a very good goalie within their grasp, but this trade cannot be judged until Bryzgalov actually signs a contract with the Flyers and we also see what the Flyers send out the door in a subsequent trade. Also, it's very difficult to see Leino resigning now, unless the Flyers dump Carter AND another significant contract.
Sunday, May 8, 2011
The Goalie Options
I've made clear my opinion that the Flyers must do something to stabilize their goaltending this offseason. They have basically no cap space to work with, so sacrifices will have to be made. Either way, here are the options (name, age, last season's numbers)
The most proven options
-Tomas Vokoun, 34, 22-28-5, 922 save percentage, $5.7m cap hit
Vokoun has consistently performed well for several season, compiling an impressive 924 save percentage over 4 years in Florida. The thing is, he has been toiling for mediocre teams for years, so he's never seen the second round of the playoffs, so he may be an unproven commodity in the playoffs. He likely will take a pay cut, but he will still cost you. The Flyers would have to dump salary elsewhere to compete in the bidding for him, but it's doable without taking a hammer to the nucleus of the team.
Ilya Bryzgalov, 30, 36-20-10, 921 save percentage, $4.25m cap hit
-Bryzgalov is, in my opinion, the only real number one goalie available in the sense that he will command a long term, high salary contract, and should be entering the prime of his career. Unless the Flyers move a Richards or Carter, they can't compete with those offers. If there was no salary cap he is the guy I would target (I'm not troubled by his poor postseason this year), but that's not the world we live in.
Wild cards
-Dwayne Roloson, 41, 24-25-5, 913 save percentage, $2.5m cap hit
Roloson is old, and he looked like a career backup when he was 30. He blossomed in Minnesota, and he keeps defying expectations, particularly this season with the Lightning. He's got to retire sometime, but I suspect he'll keep playing as a long as teams will give him one year offers. His price should be reasonable, and offering him a short term contract would work well for the Flyers if they want to leave the door open for Bobrovsky to seize the job in the next year or two. This is assuming of course that the Lightning don't resign him, who may be eager to reward one of the catalysts for their season.
-Evgeni Nabokov, 35, 2010 numbers-44-16-10, 922 save percentage, $5.375/570k
Nabokov is a very interesting option. One of the top goalies in the league for years, he recorded three straight 40 win seasons (only the 2nd time in NHL history someone has done that), then left for Russia last season. He came back at a cut price with Detroit, but the Islanders claimed him and he didn't report. There is some question about his contract status, but it appears the Isles will have him at their disposal this season at an appallingly low price of $570k, who presumably will be fielding offers from teams exactly like the Flyers. Unless you think his skills fell apart by one year off, or that he is lazy and worthless, there is no doubt that he is a premium NHL performer. The Flyers also reportedly made their best effort to sign him at the last draft, but Nabokov decided to go back to Russia, as presumably the Flyers didn't have the cap space to meet his demands. All in all, I think the Flyers would be crazy not to take a stab at a goalie with his track record and at a price that would make him one of (if not the absolute) lowest paid goalies in the entire league. There's also the Russian factor, being an experienced Russian-speaking NHL player for Bobrovsky to lean on.
Ray Emery, 28, 7-2, 926 save percentage, $500k
-Three years ago it was his attitude, and last year it was a career threatening hip injury (think Bo Jackson). No one really doubts his ability, but there's always been something holding Emery back. His comeback was impressive this season for the Ducks, though such a limited audition will mean he likely won't be able to command big dollars or a long contract. This puts him in within the reach of the Flyers. Are the Flyers up for another ride with Ray? They were reportedly one of 3 teams Emery was negotiating with this spring, as discussed here.
Fading stars
-J.S. Giguere, 33, 11-11-4, 900 save percentage, $6m cap hit
Seems like a long time ago Giguere was a playoff hero for the Ducks (leading to that huge contract, which is finally expiring). He's not that old, but hasn't performed at that high level in a few seasons. I don't think he'll regain that form (which hasn't been seen for 3 years), and I think he should be no better than plan E or F for the Flyers.
-Marty Turco, 35, 11-11-3, 897 save percentage, $1.3m cap hit
Had several good season in Dallas, but a spotty playoff record there and is coming off a very disappointing year for Chicago. He was supposed to be a bargain at that price--instead he lost the job to a rookie (who admittedly turned a lot of heads in the playoffs). I see him in a similar light to the prospect of signing Giguere.
-Jose Theodore, 34, 15-11-3, 916 save percentage, $1.1m cap hit
Coming off a strong season, but nowhere near the goalie that won the Vezina in 2002 with a gaudy 931 save percentage, as that season has proved to be an anomaly. Personally, I don't think very highly off him and feel comfortable just saying "no thanks."
-Pascal Leclaire, 28, 4-7, 908 save percentage, $3.8m cap hit
He was supposed to be a star for Columbus, being the #8 pick in 2001. For a while he seemed on that track, but he lost his job to rookie phenom Steve Mason (who has himself faded). He was shipped off to Ottawa with hopes of claiming the #1 job there long term, but disappointed. The mediocrity of his last few seasons are probably enough to keep the Flyers away, though I wouldn't be shocked if he has a career revival. I'm not really interested in the Flyers having another "hope-and-pray" goalie though.
Conclusion
I don't really like any of the fading star options, and I think the first options for the Flyers should be Roloson and Nabokov. Both are proven winners (though aging), and both are affordable and will be on short term contracts that fit in with the Flyers hopes for Bobrovsky to be the long term solution. Nabokov even has the Russian intangible in his favor.
If I were the Flyers, I'd be pushing hard for a trade with the Isles. The Flyers don't have many prospects to deal to a young Isles team, but Matt Carle would be a start in trade discussions.
If the Flyers can't trade for Nabokov or the Lightning re-sign Roloson before he hits the market, I would sniff around Vokoun or consider Emery round 2. Obviously the Flyers still like him somewhat based on their interest in February.
Lastly, the Flyers could trade from someone like Cory Schneider in Vancouver who looks very good but is likely stuck behind a big star for playing time, but that opens a can of worms of candidates and the trade assets required to complete a trade, so I won't go into that.
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Stumbling to the Finish
A little while ago, Matt Carle made a comment about how every season has its ups and downs, and those momentum swings don't change in a day. The good news is that the Flyers seem to be crawling out of their lull, picking up 11 out of 14 possible points and notably playing with more passion the last two games.
The bad news is the goaltending. Surprise!! Who would've ever guessed entering the season with two career backups and a 22-year old rookie who went 9-22 in Russia last year might cause some problems??
I said in the past that I was looking for shutouts this season as a sign when a goalie is putting in extraordinary performances. Well, as of now, the Flyers are the only team in the league without a shutout this season. Because everyone is thinking it, only twice have teams won the cup without earning a shutout, both coming during the high-scoring 80s.
I keep wanting to support Bobrovsky, seeing his abilities, but too often he looks a little overwhelmed in there, reacts slowly and has bad stretches during games. My initial thoughts on him, that he gets 'small' on long shots and is uncomfortable with the puck in close and around the net, haven't changed since October.
Then there's Boucher. A vet who is capable of playing great for stretches of a few weeks, he still tends to get overactive in net and is prone to the bad goal. If I had to choose a goalie for the playoffs right now, Boucher would still be my guy, though it appears Laviolette has been leaning towards Bobrovsky. I also have to admit that Boucher's performance in the shootout last night was maybe the worst I have ever seen (it's miraculous that the Flyers entered the playoffs last year based on a shootout victory with Boucher in net on the last day of the season).
While the Flyers goalies flail, two other names have to be mentioned.
-Ray Emery just was just named one of the 3 stars of the week, winning two games and giving up one goal in each. I previously wrote he could have been a low-risk, high-reward gamble for the Flyers.
-Michael Leighton's stats seem to indicate that he is playing well in the AHL. He is 9-11 with a .921 save percentage (his teammate, Johan Backlund, is 8-15 with a .886 save percentage).
So should the Flyers recall Leighton now? I wouldn't rule it out, but it's not going to happen yet. Calling up Leighton would be an act of desperation and giving up on either Bobrovsky or Boucher. The Flyers will give them at least a few more starts, but then the question has to be asked, will it be too late to get Leighton into the team for the playoffs? Maybe.
I am under no delusions about Leighton being more than a journeyman goalie, but that doesn't mean he's not the best of the 3 poor options. What is certain right now, is that neither Boucher's nor Bobrovsky's current level of play is good enough to sustain a deep playoff run.
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
More Doom and Gloom
Apparently I didn't get out all the doom and gloom yesterday. Evidently the Flyers locker room is about to fall apart, and the players hate each other and are tuning out Laviolette. I wonder if the Flyers will win another game this season.
Contrary to popular belief, a 4 game winning streak is not the end of the world, no matter how ugly one of the losses was. The Flyers look tired and are not matching their opponents' desperation. Their power play is struggling, and players are making uncharacteristic foolish plays trying to do too much. Such is life.
There are two things to keep an eye on;
1) Is any of this a precursor to struggles in the playoffs?
2) Can the Flyers maintain their top seed.
As to 1), it would be silly to think a few bad games presupposes doom in the playoffs for a team that is still number 1 in the Conference. Way too early for that kind of conclusion.
Point 2 is more important, because the standings are so tight. A 2-week bobble can cost them multiple playoff spots. A #7 seed last year didn't cost them in the end, but no one wants to do that again. The Flyers will have to turn it around pretty quickly or months of hard work will be wasted.
AND about that struggling power play, one suggestion; get Matt Carle off the PP. Despite regular PP minutes, he has 2 PP points all season, putting him 12th on the team in that category. More importantly, he just doesn't have that skill set. Carle's biggest offensive asset is his skating and joining the rush. In the "half-court" setup of the PP, that skill is largely useless. What's left is his mediocre passing, and his very poor shot. Pronger, Timonen and Meszaros are all very good PP defensemen, and a guy like Mike Richards can move from his low-outside position to be another point man, which would get another forward in the PP mix. Seems an obvious improvement to me.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Updated Cap Outlook
My current projection (with assumptions) for Flyers cap next year:
Forwards
Leino? (???) -Briere (6.5) -Hartnell (4.2)
Versteeg (3.083) -Richards (5.75) -JVR (1.654)
Nodl [.8925] -Carter (5.27) -Giroux (3.75)
Powe [.761] -Betts (.7) -Shelley (1.1)
Total: 33.6605
D
Pronger (4.9) - Carle (3.4)
Timo (6.3) - Coburn (3.2)
Mesz (4)-O'Donnell [1]
Bartulis (.571)
Total: 23.371
Goal
Bobo (1.75)
Total: 1.75
Overall: 58.7815
Cap 10-11 - $59.4
Assumptions
-Nodl and Powe will accept the Flyers' minimum RFA qualifying offers
-O'Donnell will resign for the same amount.
-The following players will not be on the roster next year.
Laperriere
Carcillo
Walker
Zherdev
Boucher
Leighton
-The cap next year will go up by a few million. Let's say it goes up by $3.6 to an even $63 million.
So, given all these assumptions, the Flyers will have approximately $4.2185 million in cap space to sign Leino, a #13 forward, and a backup goalie. The Flyers have also indicated in the past that they want to enter the season with at least $1 million in cap space to provide some flexibility during the season. That would reduce the functional signing space to $3.2185 million.
If the Flyers sign a #13 forward and a backup goalie for $700k each, they will have $1.8185 to sign Leino or another everyday forward. This math also assumes a very modest increase for Nodl, which may be unlikely.
Or, in other words, the Flyers plan on trading Carle in the offseason, or the team has already given up trying to retain Leino.
Friday, January 21, 2011
Plus/Minus Check-in
Always interesting to see how players are performing in the plus/minus category. All the usual caveats apply (ice time, matchups, roles...blah blah blah).
Current leaders:
Meszaros, +29 (#1 in NHL)
Leino, +23 (#3 overall, #1 forward)
Carle, +20 (#7)
Briere, +17 (#15)
Hartnell, +17 (#15)
In the basement:
Carcillo, -7 (26gp)
Bartulis, -4 (12gp)
Powe, -1
First of all, when you're the number 1 team in the NHL, everybody has a pretty good plus/minus rating.
Two things jump out from the leaders; 1) Meszaros is playing really outstanding. Part of that is helped by playing on the third pair before Pronger got hurt, and thus being matched up against the opposition's third line. Still, his numbers have gone up since seeing increased ice time with Pronger out, and #1 in the NHL is #1 in the NHL, period.
The second thing that jumps out is all the members of the Briere line, with Leino leading the way. Anyone who's been paying attention knows the Briere line has been the best and most consistent line for the Flyers this year. Leino being several points ahead than his linemates also underlines his excellent play this year, and that he's also the best defensive forward on that line.
Carle's performance also demands praise. That plus/minus is way up there, and notably higher than his partner's (Pronger at +7).
At the other end, Carcillo and Bartulis stand out. I would be worried if Bartulis sees much playing time come the playoffs, and Carcillo is not doing anything to help his slim chances of resigning. I wouldn't worry too much about Powe, because the whole 4th line has pretty low numbers, and he's just a bit behind them.
Monday, January 3, 2011
Leighton Waived
This caught me by surprise. The breaking news of the day is that Michael Leighton has been waived.
I thought the Flyers would roll with 3 goalies for another week or two, but not so fast.
Leighton got the win in his first game back, though he was not good. Of course letting in a no-angle shot 2.5 minutes in didn't ease Flyers fans' memories of the Stanley Cup winning goal.
It is tempting to see this and have an initial reaction that the Flyers are dumping him and going with Boucher and Bobrovsky. After taking a deep breath, the following is more likely;
1) Leighton will be unclaimed and try to find his stride in the AHL as part of the Flyers organization.
2) The Flyers are going to ride Boucher (aka Mr. Streaky) as long as he's playing well. Personally I don't think that's going to be much longer, but you never know.
3) The Flyers don't want to send Bobrovsky down.
The Flyers overall goalie situation is not much clearer now. Don't be surprised to see Leighton called back up if Boucher and Bobrovsky struggle and Leighton plays well down on the farm. This definitely isn't good news for Mr. Leighton, but I don't think his days with the Flyers are over just yet.
As another aside, let me also say that I don't see Boucher or Leighton having any trade value at any point this season. If the Flyers don't want three goalies, it means someone is going to the minors and nothing is coming back to the Flyers.
Other searing insights:
-JVR is getting scoring chances more consistently, and is scoring some garbage goals. I didn't necessarily see him as that type of player giving his skating and stickhandling, but maybe that's where his NHL future lies? His career could still go either way, but I couldn't help but notice he was on the ice in the final minute as the Flyers clung to their one goal lead against the Wings. That may be a better sign than the goals (and all the posts he's been hitting).
-The lines are back to status quo. I wouldn't have minded seeing them mixed up a little longer, but the Hartnell-Briere-Leino line is maximizing the output of each of those three. Not sure what is best for Richards, Giroux and Carter though.
-Meszaros trade sure is looking good right now. I've said it before, but Carle's days as a Flyer may be numbered (beyond this season that is).
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Recapping the Cap (and Leino)
Currently, the Flyers cap for next year projects as follows:
Forwards
Leino (???) -Briere (6.5) -Hartnell (4.2)
Nodl [.8925] -Richards (5.75) -JVR (1.654)
????-Carter (5.27) -Giroux (3.75)
Powe [.761] -Betts (.7) -Shelley (1.1)
Total: 31.27
D
Pronger (4.9) - Carle (3.4)
Timo (6.3) - Coburn (3.2)
Mesz (4)-O'Donnell [1]
Total: 22.8
Goal
Bobo (1.75)
Leighton (1.55)
Total: 3.3
Overall: 57.37
Cap 10-11 - $59.4
There are so many variables in projecting something like this, that you have to make some assumptions to have any kind of meaningful conversation.
For the above, I assumed that Nodl and Powe will accept the Flyers' minimum RFA qualifying offers, and that O'Donnell will resign for the same amount. I also assumed that, one way or another, the following players will not be on the roster next year.
Laperriere
Carcillo
Walker
Zherdev
Boucher
One more assumption; the cap next year will go up by a few million. Let's say it goes up by $3.6 to an even $63 million.
So, given all these assumptions, the Flyers will have approximately $5.5 million in cap space to sign Leino, #12 and #13 forwards, and a #7 defensemen. The Flyers have also indicated in the past that they want to enter the season with at least $1 million in cap space to provide some flexibility during the season. That would reduce the functional signing space to $4.5 million.
Okay one more step. Let's say the Flyers sign cheap-o players for those bottom of the lineup guys at approximately $700k each.
I take a few things away from this breakdown;
1) The Flyers could absorb a signing of Leino without making other changes if he signs for less than $2.4 million
2) If Leino wants more than that, something else will have to go (I say Carle is the likely candidate)
3) Trying to project all this when there are still so many variables floating around is pretty much a futile exercise.
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