The Most Interesting Offseason in the World

The free agent frenzy is quieting down now, and you can take stock of most things.

The big point overall is that UFAs this year made a killing.  Players were getting 30% more than a comparable player would've gotten 2 years ago.  I think it's mostly due the to fact that it was a generally weak free agent group coming in a year where the salary cap increased more than expected.  And then you have a team like Florida spending money like a drunken sailor in a whorehouse on decent but unspectacular players simply to get to the cap floor that compounded the perverted market.

For the Flyers, the Extreme Makeover continues.  Out with the Canadian golden boys, in with puck possession eastern europeans, a Russian goalie, and a black guy.  Despite a bunch of rumors of something bigger like Brad Richards, Stamkos, or a big trade, the Flyers mostly stuck to the expected game plan. Mostly.

The most "predictable" move was adding a 3rd/4th line character guy.  The Flyers needed some experience in that area, and the team has commented that they need a "new Laperriere" to provide leadership and character in that role.  Max Talbot seems to fit that bill, the only surprise being that he comes from the Penguins.

Speaking of the Penguins, there was that signing of Jagr the other day.  Now nearly everyone expected the Flyers to be looking at wingers, maybe Erik Cole or Michael Ryder, but no one was taking about Jagr to the Flyers until the day before free agency.  Apparently the Flyers pursuit of him didn't even start until then until Holmgren speculatively sent a text to former flyer Petr Svoboda, who is the agent for Jagr and Voracek.

Jagr will be a very interesting case.  He'll turn 40 in midseason and will not be the dominant player of old, but he's remained productive in Russia and is coming off a very strong World Championships performance.  It's easy to question whether an aging temperamental Euro star is a right fit on the Flyers, but Jagr seems more dedicated to training and staying in shape than ever before.  Also he apparently did his homework and chose the Flyers (which were not the richest offer) after talking to the coaches and players.  There's lots of reasons to be hopeful that Jagr will have a productive season, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him hit 60 points this season.

Lastly, there is the signing of Andreas Lilja.  A cheap, depth defensemen for the 6/7 role.


Other Signings:
-Handzus to SJ for $2.5x2 years.  Early in the day it was reported that the Flyers had signed Handzus, to which I was receptive.  He would be a big centermen to play on the third line and would be a decent fit at the right price.  Seems to me SJ got a good deal here for an aging though still valuable centermen.

-Upshall to Florida for $3.5x4.  Wow, the first of many big overpayments on the day.  This signing was the perfect marriage of a player who's not quite as good as he thinks he is (career highs; 22 goals and 34 points) with a team looking to overpay to get to the cap floor.

-Leino to Buffalo for $4.5x6.  This is an outright shocker.  I don't blame the Flyers for holding steady at a $3m deal, though I suspected someone else would come along and offer more.  Just not that much more.  Calendar year 2010 Leino, who scored 21 points in 19 playoff games and had a very strong first half of the ensuing regular season, was a player worthy of a deal approaching $4m a season.  Calendar year 2011 Leino, not so much.  While Leino is younger and better defensively than Jagr (though he's still not great defensively himself), what are the odds the Flyers get more points and goals from Jagr at $3.3m this year than Buffalo gets from Leino at $4.5?

-Cole to Montreal for $4.5x4.  This is the guy who I wanted on the Flyers, and while that's not an outrageous price, it was still too high for the Flyers to entertain.

-Connolly to Leafs for $4.75x2.  Connolly is a talented player who plays at near a point/game pace when healthy, but when is he ever healthy?  He's only played 70 games once since the lockout, and here are his point totals the last 5 seasons; 1, 40, 47, 65, 42.  This is a $5 million player now?  At least it's only a 2 year deal.

-Vokoun to the Caps for $1.5x1.  An outright steal for the Caps, as he fell into their laps when he didn't find a big money deal on July 1 and looked for a contender to join.  Of course the Flyers could not have entered free agency and expected to get Vokoun for anywhere near this amount, but it still hurts to watch a competitor get such a quality goalie for so little salary, even if it was just luck.


Up Next for the Flyers:
-The Flyers don't have much cap space left.  They likely have $3m or so in cap space left after signing Simmonds and making expected cuts, but they still need to carry a 19th or 20th skater and leave a little cap buffer.

-There are rumors the Flyers are sniffing around Jason Arnott.  He would be of similar interest to the Flyers for the same reason as Handzus; a big third line center at this point of his career.  He might want too much money though.

-The Stamkos rumors never go away with the Flyers.  The latest is Schenn, Bobrovsky and 1st rounder for Stamkos.  If there was no salary cap and this was purely about hockey, I definitely do this deal.  Given the cap restraints however, the Flyers will likely have to dump more salary to fit Stamkos in (Hartnell or Carle maybe), and would not be in great shape next offseason allocating raises to JVR and Coburn, so it's ultimately a tough call.  This is assuming of course the rumors are accurate and Stamkos doesn't simply resign with the Lightning.

Free Agent Madness

It begins today at noon.

The NHL free agent frenzy is pretty wild, with most of the big names signing within a few hours, and just about everyone of consequence gone within one day.  With the Flyers passing on Stamkos (thank goodness), the Flyers will be looking to make some signings.  Exactly how much money they feel like they can spend is uncertain, because they may still dump salary.

Possible FA targets;
-Brad Richards - Hard to see the Flyers fitting him in, though it wouldn't be as difficult as signing Stamkos.  A top quality center, he will command a long term deal in the vicinity of $6m/year.  Someone like the Rangers may outbid the others for him, though the Flyers have popped up as an interested party.
-Erik Cole - Probably my top choice for the Flyers to sign.  Physical winger who can score his share of goals, though he has had injury problems in the past.  It won't break the bank to sign him either.
-Simon Gagne - Familiar face would have to take a steep paycut from his expiring $5m/year deal the Flyers signed him to.  In my opinion his days as a go-to goal scorer are gone because a level of aggression is gone from his game, and you can't score consistently without driving the net and going to scoring areas.  Still could be a quality 2-way forward IF he can avoid injuries.
-Michael Ryder - His name has come up as a possible target of the Flyers.  He can score some goals in the NHL, but "Easy Ryder" does find his way into coaches' doghouses at times.
-Michael Handzus - Another familiar face, who had some good seasons with the Flyers a few years ago.  Big and slow, but maybe a good option as 3rd-line center?  Would need to agree to a paycut too.
-Jamie Langenbrunner - A valuable 2-way winger for some time, his career is on the decline but may interest teams as a cheap veteran.
-John Madden - On the verge of retirement, had several good seasons a PK and faceoff specialist.  Might not be looking for much money.
-Jaromir Jagr - Former MVP wants to come back to the NHL at 39 after three seasons in Russia.  Could be a bargain as you'd think he's still good for 50 points or more with his skills, regardless of age.
-Ville Leino - He's a UFA now.  I think the Flyers would like him back, but only at less than $3m/year.  Someone else will probably give him more than that.

Someone always overpays on UFA day, and it may be even worse this year with several teams needed to spend to reach the cap floor.  If a real bidding war erupts for a particular player, the Flyers will not be able to keep pace, but they have a little bit of money to spend and hopefully can find some value.

The Day After

Just a few thoughts now that the initial shock has worn off.

-Trading both Richards and Carter seems to lend credence to the idea that there were locker room issues with the young players on this team.  Going back even further, every last piece of the "Old City Crew" has been shipped out; Upshall, then Lupul, now Richards and Carter.  Seems a long time ago Stevens was coaching that big group of young forwards.

-I have to assume Pronger will be named the captain, as he kind of assumed the role of de facto captain last year anyway.

-As much as I like the deal, Simmonds, Voracek and Schenn will not be able to match the outgoing production of Richards and Carter this year.  They are still young and developing, and are where Richards and Carter were a few years ago.  Can they develop quick enough to win before Timonen and Pronger get too old?

-I really don't think I'll miss Carter too much, but the Richards trade does make me a little nervous.  Richards looked out of shape to me down the stretch this year, but he can still do a little bit of everything and never quits.  All is well if Schenn develops as most expect he will, and he's not a dissimilar player to Richards.  However if Schenn fizzles by any significant amount, the Flyers will have traded their captain in his prime and not have too much to show for it.

-Apparently the Flyers almost sent Richards to the Leafs for Kulemin and Kadri, but the Leafs couldn't make up their mind.  Also the Flyers apparently asked for Ryan Johansen, another center (and #2 on hockeysfuture.com top prospects behing Schenn) from Columbus.  Maybe if Columbus had given in on Johansen the Flyers wouldn't have traded for Schenn?  Who knows, who cares.

-There are some ridiculous rumors floating around about the Flyers chasing Brad Richards or Steven Stamkos.  I can't imagine it.  The Flyers opened up some cap space, but not that much cap space.  Future acquisitions should be to round out the chemistry of the forwards at reasonable prices, not expensive high-end players.  Cole, Gagne...etc.

-I'd also try and get Leino back because of his chemistry with Briere.  People forget how much this team relied on that line up through January, because quite frankly Richards, Carter, and Pronger were having pretty sleepy seasons.

-The team is placing the offense into Claude Giroux's hands.  He is the new franchise center, a role he seemingly was eager to accept this season anyway.  With any luck, Schenn will be there supporting him sooner rather than later.

-The only thing the Flyers didn't address yesterday was young defensemen.  Presumably the Flyers will take a defensemen with the #8 pick, though personally I would even look for a deal to trade Versteeg+#8 pick for a top notch defensive prospect who is close to NHL ready.

Flyers trade for Bryzgalov's rights

The Flyers have acquired Ilya Bryzgalov (due to become a free agent on July 1) for Matt Clackson, a 3rd round pick next year, and a conditional pick.

No one will notice Clackson being gone, but the Flyers give up another (possibly 2) decent picks.

As for Bryzgalov, as I already stated, I think he is the best goalie out there, having high-end ability and entering the prime of his career.  I wasn't sure if he made sense for the Flyers because he is going to want a long-term, high salary deal.  Some inside sources regarding Bryzgalov's negotiations with Phoenix before they traded him;

Real_ESPNLeBrun Pierre LeBrun 

Am told by source that Bryzgalov contract demands with Coyotes were off the charts

DarrenDreger Darren Dreger 

Bryzgalov wants to be paid as a top player...not just a top goalie. Demands too rich for Yotes.

One can only hope he didn't really want to sign with Phoenix, and his demands with the Flyers will be reasonable.  I will be stunned if he signs here for less than 4 years at $5m/year.  I would actually predict he will sign at 4 or 5 years, approximately $6/year (if not a little more).

This raises a few questions;
1) Who else are the Flyers going to trade now?  Even if you assume the Flyers will not carry Zherdev, Carcillo, Nodl, Powe, Laperriere, Walker, O'Donnell and Leighton on the books, the Flyers already still have over $56m committed to players next season.  Simply signing Bryzgalov will eat up all of their currently available cap space (once the cap for next season is announced at between $62 and $63 million--the Flyers can't sign Bryzgalov until that announcement is made because he will put them over the current cap of $59.4m).  At that point, the Flyers will only have 9 forwards (no Leino) and 6 defensemen, so they will need to dump at least $5m in cap space just to fill out the roster.

One has to think the Flyers already have another trade lined up to clear salary, or else they wouldn't have pulled the trigger on this Bryzgalov trade yet.  Carter is the guy everyone is talking about, which makes sense.  I would throw Carle into the fray too, but I don't hear his name come up in rumors very often.

2) Does this say anything about Bobrovsky?  His path to the number 1 job will be blocked for several seasons.  Have the Flyers soured on him?  I guess they could send him to the AHL for a season, though that's probably unlikely.  Most likely is that the team simply decided "screw this, we need a goalie" and they'll worry about Bob later.

3) Should the Flyers be worried about mediocre postseason performances by Bryzgalov in Phoenix?  I don't think so.  He played just fine in the postseason for the Ducks, and his career postseason save percentage in the playoffs is higher than his regular season number.  The Coyotes were hardly a team primed for postseason runs, and he was one of the biggest reasons they got there in the first place.



Long story short, this is very exciting news for the Flyers.  They've got a very good goalie within their grasp, but this trade cannot be judged until Bryzgalov actually signs a contract with the Flyers and we also see what the Flyers send out the door in a subsequent trade.  Also, it's very difficult to see Leino resigning now, unless the Flyers dump Carter AND another significant contract.

It's officially over

As expected, the Bruins series ended promptly this year.  It was a comprehensive thrashing.    There's really not much else to say about it, other than that it shouldn't be all that surprising given the way they looked at the end the season in general; disorganized defensively, tentative, physically unassertive.

I wanted to believe the Flyers would shape up and return to midseason form after some inspired play against Buffalo, but that proved to be a temporary flash against an inferior opponent.

Quick season review:
What went right?
-Giroux emerged as the best player on the team.

-JVR took a big step forward, and should be a key player next year.

-The Meszaros transaction worked out great, being the team's best defense from start to finish this year.  He is signed for 3 more years at $4m per and looks to be the heir apparent to leading the defense as Pronger's and Timonen's ice time declines due to age.

-Bobrovsky showed a lot of promise, with his best hockey coming in November.  That said, I strongly believe his NHL game is not a finished product, and there's no way I'd enter next season with him as the undisputed number 1.

-Nodl's first half.

-The defense was much stronger 1-6, at least when the roster was healthy.

What went wrong?
-Pronger had a mediocre regular season, had injury problems, and essentially missed the end of the season and playoffs.  Honestly I didn't care too much about his regular season because he's a playoff player, but that didn't really work out this year, did it.

-Timonen had his worst season as a Flyer, particularly in the playoffs.  Along with Pronger, questions have to be asked how much their skills will diminish in the next season or two and if they are breaking down.  Timonen is 36 years old and said it himself that he only has so many season in his "stumpy legs."  Maybe he was just playing injured in the playoffs...we'll have to see.

-Richards had an uninspiring regular season, and a particularly disappointing playoffs.  I still say he was injured/out-of-shape.  I hope for his sake it was injured and not the latter.  There's also a lot of chatter about his lack of leadership, but I know nothing about what is really happening in "the room", so I can't speak to that.

-The Versteeg trade is looking like a real dud.  He played a little better in the playoffs, but never contributing in any significant way.  He will have to do better next year to earn the $3m cap hit, or the Flyers should start looking to remedy the mistake of acquiring him in the first place.

-Nodl's second half, the return of Andreas No-Goal.

-Goaltending was not good enough.  It was rendered irrelevant in the Boston series, but the Flyers eeked by a much inferior Buffalo team after what was, taken collectively, probably the worst goaltending performance in a playoff series I've ever seen.

-The power play was really bad, somewhat inexplicably so.

-The Hartnell-Briere-Leino line lost its mojo in the second half of the season.  For last year's playoffs and the first half this year, they were pretty easily the Flyers best 5v5 line, manufacturing scoring chances and pinning in the other team.  Just as an example, Leino's 6 points in 11 playoff games this year is a far cry from his 21 in 19 games last year.

-100 straight games without a shutout.  It's hard to pin down the exact reasons for this, but I say roughly 2/3rds goaltending and 1/3 poor defensive zone coverage and lapses.  Much of a shutout is solid defense combined with a flawless performance by a goalie.



There is really no clear path forward for the Flyers.  That's not to say they're all of a sudden a bad team, I just mean that management could go in several completely different directions.  The only move I think they HAVE to make is a meaningful solution in goal.  What they should do with the skaters however (and if they should shake up the lineup) is very subjective, but almost nothing is off the table.

Game 1 Review

I didn't have a good feeling about this series, and the Flyers did nothing for me tonight to change any of those worries.

Yes, the Flyers held a clear territorial edge in the play, had 35 shots, and probably outchanced Buffalo about 2-1. Much of the post-game talk was Miller, and Richards said if they continue to play like that, they'll have success.

I disagree. How many times did the Flyers get a great look where you get on the edge of your seat? Damn few. The only decent chances they had were jam plays where you hope somebody pokes the puck in the net when the goalie is down. Miller was solid but didn't do much of note.

This team is still afflicted with stop-and-pass syndrome. I lost count of all the times where the Flyers had odd-man numbers on a rush or around the goal and the puck carrier just stops skating, drifts and throws a hopeful pass into the slot which bounces away harmlessly. It's like the Flyers are afraid to carry the puck to the net or shoot from anywhere but the slot (a play which Buffalo took away). Briere and Meszaros are the only guys willing to shoot. This is the way they've been playing the last month, and it's doubtful it will change now. Carry the puck towards the net aggressively and force the issue!! Coasting and passing to the slot every time is predictable and easy to defend. I don't expect the Flyers to score many goals this series.

Other individual thoughts:

The good

-Real good game for JVR. Probably the Flyers best forward tonight.

-Good first period from Leino, and he created several chances overall.

-Can't fault Briere for anything tonight. He probably had the most hits of any Flyer.

-Bobrovsky gets a pass tonight. Was pretty good in the limited chances he faced, though he gave up a poor rebound that led to the only goal.

The not-so good

-Versteeg is really doing absolutely nothing for me (which has been the case since he arrived)

-Carter did nothing with the puck. He had a few scoring chances, but those came from hanging out away from the puck where Giroux and JVR set him up with their hard work.

-Good to see Richards come out with fire, but he did nothing this game and spent more time yelling at the refs than anything else. Same anonymous play as stretches of the regular season for him this year.

-The PP looked totally hopeless, not that there could've been any reasonable expectation of flipping the switch on that.

-Giroux is trying, but is out of sorts right now. Stickhandling 1-on-4 during the last PP?

My standing prediction was Buffalo in 7. 6 games is looking more likely.

GO TIME

The time has come. Will the Flyers "wake up" or "flip the switch"?

I have my doubts. It's not just a matte of desire. Your powerplay doesn't get more organized overnight. Bobrovsky's not going to make strides in his overall game this week that he hasn't been able to make in the last 7 months.

On paper, there is no doubt in my mind the Flyers are clearly superior. But Pronger looks to miss at least one game, Richards is sick, and who knows what else is going on. I think for me it's going to come down to 2 things; 1) the Flyers goaltending, 2) and the Flyers skating.

The Flyers quality of play is no longer superior enough such that they can withstand a bad goal or two and win. There won't be much margin of error for Bobrovsky, and I suspect if Bob struggles, by the time Laviolette gives up on him and brings in Boucher or Leighton it will be too late.

As for skaters, I want to see the Flyers drive their legs with the puck. The Flyers have become masters of the pull-up and stop play, looking for the pass. It's one thing for a guy like Leino who's game is based on that, but most players on the Flyers roster are far more effective when the legs are churning and they're going to the net. Hesitation and coasting will kill the Flyers in this series.

This could go either way, but right now I have to say the Sabres in 7.

Let's go Flyers, prove me wrong!!

Division Clinched

It was by the skin of their teeth, but the Flyers clinched the division for the first time in 6 years last night.

A playoff atmosphere at the arena last night and a perfect start before the Flyers found themselves down 4-3. I guess the Flyers should just take the win and move on. Very fitting however, that the line of Leino-Briere-Hartnell plus 4 points from Andrei Meszaros carried the day. Those are the guys that have been there doing it all regular season, and it wasn't Richards or Carter or came through with the big plays when the team needed them today.

So now that the Flyers are in the playoffs, the Flyers have about 4 days to answer some questions.

The issues;

-Zherdev. This one's pretty easy--he stays in the lineup. As long as he's not hurting the team with turnovers or bad penalties or the like, the team could use his stick skills and shooting.

-Briere. Seems to be healthy. Thank god.

-Richards & Carter. No injuries this year, time for Carter to be a go-to scorer in the playoffs. It hasn't been a terribly impressive regular season for Richards, but he should turn it up in the playoffs.

-Pronger. No way to really know what's going on with his injury, but I'd very surprised if he doesn't play in game 1 of the playoffs (with significant minutes).

-Power play. Still looking pretty scattershot.

-Goalies. Alas, the million dollar question, as it has been all season.

So, Goalies

All the indications the past few weeks were that Bobrovsky was Laviolette's guy, and he confirmed as much this week. A while back I decided that my preference was Boucher.

I see Bobrovsky and I see a goalie who hasn't figured it out yet. Regardless of what he is capable of long term, right now I see 3 major holes; 1) gets small and scrunchy on long shots, 2) has developed a disturbing tendency to have a gaping five hole when moving laterally on breakaways, and most importantly, 3) still loses track of the puck often and is caught unaware with traffic and when the puck is jammed in around the crease. The way he was pulled yesterday was very ugly for a goalie who is supposed to carry the load in the playoffs. Honestly, it reminds me of 1997, when in the final game of the season, Hextall was pulled after giving up 4 goals, and the team rallied behind Snow paving the way for Snow in the playoffs.

Given my lack of faith in Bobrovsky, is Boucher any better? Maybe, maybe not. I think if Boucher can stay 'quiet' in the crease, he's the better option. He's not really much more than a mediocre NHL goalie, but he should be mostly reliable.

Honestly I kind of wish Leighton had gotten a game, but I suppose Laviolette was trying to give the keys to his guy, and the Flyers had no breathing room to give Leighton a trial game anyway. Truthfully Leighton is just another not-quite-good-enough goalie on the Flyers payroll, but I do think his play the last few months of last season was better than what Boucher and Bobrovsky are providing right now.

Also, for anyone keeping score, Ray Emery was called up by the Ducks last month and finished the season 7-2 with a 926 save percentage. So much for the Emery as a low-risk high-reward signing, but it's hard to blame the Flyers for not carrying 4 NHL goalies in their ranks.

No matter who's in net, the Flyers inability to lock it down (read, the only NHL team without a shutout this year), is likely going to be their doom this year.

Today

Some topics in Flyerdom;

-The Flyers allegedly played a game on Saturday night, though I still can't confirm they actually showed up and played. Kidding aside, it was good to see Leino get a hat trick. He's been laboring since a mid-February groin injury, and his line has been in the tank since. Hopefully he is getting healthy again. Since missing a game February 16, Leino had only 3 points and was -4 over the next 10 games. He previously had been one of the best +/- players in the league, and the fact that his whole line fell apart at the time underscores how valuable he has been to the team all year.

-Pronger is having surgery today and is out 3-4 weeks. No word on if Pronger verbally attacked his hand for being unreliable and quitting on him in the locker room after the Atlanta game. A full four week recovery would have him returning simultaneously with the start of the playoffs.

Bettman's 5 point plan

Gary Bettman released a 5-point plan to address concussions, as seen here. Briefly, I feel like it's mostly PR, though maybe the idea of penalizing coaches and players can have some positive effects.

Stiff seemless glass doesn't help, but most concussions are a result of open ice hits away from the glass. Also, the idea of reviewing rink safety certainly isn't a bad idea (and probably should be done anyway), but to imply that rink safety is a leading factor in concussions in the NHL is a total sideshow.

None of the points directly address the real cause of the vast majority of concussions--the conduct and actions of players on the ice. That's somewhat understandable to the extent that you can't make a sea change at this point of the season, and hopefully the blue ribbon committee will be progressive and make an impression on the real arbiters of rule changes in the league, the GMs.

IMO, the only meaningful way to reduce head injuries in the NHL is if the players stop playing search and destroy and the ice and being opportunistic on really clearing out a guy with a high hit. That respect could even extend to plays like the infamous Chara-Pacioretty incident where the players know where they are on the ice and adjust their actions accordingly (it almost feels like Pacioretty and Chara were playing chicken on who would flinch first and give space). It appears that the only way that will happen is for significant suspensions to happen frequently until the players change their actions, and I'm not holding my breath on that one.

Doom and Gloom Day

Time to get out all the doom and gloom.

-The Flyers lost 4 games in a row in regulation for the first time all season.

-The Flyers had one of their worst losses in years yesterday.

-The questionable goaltending is cracking.

-The entire Hartnell-Briere-Leino line doesn't look the same.

-Pronger's getting old.

-Versteeg isn't showing too much.

-O'Donnell is making more mistakes.

-The struggling PP is getting worse.

-The Flyers can't match their opponents' intensity, and when they should be raising their game for the playoffs, they are slumping.

Am I forgetting anything?

Trade Deadline Looming

There has been far more trade activity in the weeks leading up the trade deadline than is traditional in the NHL. The Flyers have already made their big move by getting Versteeg, but look for them to try and add a depth defensemen at low cost. Perhaps for Zherdev?

After watching Jody Shelley dress over healthy scratch Nik Zherdev - and his 15 goals - twice in the last week, many were left wondering whether we have seen the last of Zherdev in a Flyers uniform.

Some rumors had the Flyers waiving Zherdev and his $2 million salary to create room under the salary cap. Another rumor, from Russian reporter Dmitry Chesnokov, said yesterday that six NHL teams have contacted the Flyers about obtaining Zherdev's services before next Monday's trading deadline.

"I must have missed those calls," Paul Holmgren deadpanned.

Despite missing 12 games this season as a healthy scratch, Zherdev would still lead the Ottawa Senators in scoring. That's an insurance policy Holmgren won't exactly give away, in case of injury.

"Yeah, I would be [reluctant]," Holmgren said. "A little bit. Because he's a highly skilled player. And, in case something happens, it'd be difficult from an insurance standpoint."

Zherdev has clearly fallen out of favor with coach Peter Laviolette - and the Flyers couldn't even find Zherdev in Raleigh, N.C., on Friday night when Mike Richards came down with a stomach illness after warmups.

"We were scrambling around, about 8 minutes before the game and the only guy they could find was Jody," Holmgren said. "I think Nikolay has struggled with being in and out of the lineup. Perhaps his work ethic has dropped in practice as a result. But he needs to tough it out here and work hard if he wants to get back in the lineup."

Read more: http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/flyers/20110222_Leino_sets_aside_salary_talks_so_Flyers_can_add_Versteeg.html#ixzz1Ei4Hwnob
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As I said before, Zherdev for a low-level defensemen makes sense to me.

Will also be interesting to see how Bartulis plays the next two weeks with O'Donnell injured. I've never been a big fan of Bartulis, and was surprised when the Flyers signed him to a multi-year contract after playing in just a few NHL games. I guess we'll see if he's trustworthy for spot duty in the playoffs.

And then there's Leino (my current obsession on this blog).

Not wanting to ruffle the feathers of Leino, his biggest playoff hero last year (seven goals, 14 assists), Holmgren asked Leino how he would feel about the team pulling the trigger on a deal. Now, Versteeg is here - and Leino is stuck until the offseason. Even so, it was a no-brainer for Leino, who makes more than only Darroll Powe, Oskars Bartulis and Blair Betts.

"He's got to sit tight now," Holmgren said. "We have about $2 million in tagging space, so that's probably not enough to get it done right now.

"I think there's an open dialogue. I think my conversations with Ville and his agent, he wants to be here. He knows we want him here. That's a topic for another day."

Read more: http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/flyers/20110222_Leino_sets_aside_salary_talks_so_Flyers_can_add_Versteeg.html#ixzz1Ei4Hwnob
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And;

Holmgren reiterated that there is not enough room to sign Leino until after the season. He does not expect any problems resigning the winger.

Read more: http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/flyers/20110222_Flyers_Notes___Flyers__O_Donnell_to_be_out_up_to_two_weeks.html#ixzz1Ei4NhQbC
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Interesting. Not to beat a dead horse, but there is no cap room to sign Leino without moving a significant piece off the current roster. It is also possible the Flyers are resorting to new tactics to convince Leino to resign;

Updated Cap Outlook

My current projection (with assumptions) for Flyers cap next year:

Forwards

Leino? (???) -Briere (6.5) -Hartnell (4.2)

Versteeg (3.083) -Richards (5.75) -JVR (1.654)

Nodl [.8925] -Carter (5.27) -Giroux (3.75)

Powe [.761] -Betts (.7) -Shelley (1.1)

Total: 33.6605

D

Pronger (4.9) - Carle (3.4)

Timo (6.3) - Coburn (3.2)

Mesz (4)-O'Donnell [1]

Bartulis (.571)

Total: 23.371

Goal

Bobo (1.75)

Total: 1.75

Overall: 58.7815

Cap 10-11 - $59.4

Assumptions

-Nodl and Powe will accept the Flyers' minimum RFA qualifying offers

-O'Donnell will resign for the same amount.

-The following players will not be on the roster next year.

Laperriere

Carcillo

Walker

Zherdev

Boucher

Leighton

-The cap next year will go up by a few million. Let's say it goes up by $3.6 to an even $63 million.

So, given all these assumptions, the Flyers will have approximately $4.2185 million in cap space to sign Leino, a #13 forward, and a backup goalie. The Flyers have also indicated in the past that they want to enter the season with at least $1 million in cap space to provide some flexibility during the season. That would reduce the functional signing space to $3.2185 million.

If the Flyers sign a #13 forward and a backup goalie for $700k each, they will have $1.8185 to sign Leino or another everyday forward. This math also assumes a very modest increase for Nodl, which may be unlikely.

Or, in other words, the Flyers plan on trading Carle in the offseason, or the team has already given up trying to retain Leino.

After Versteeg, what now?

Versteeg has yet to actually play for the Flyers, but that won't prevent a "day after" post.

First, I am pretty confident that the Flyers won't be able to sign Leino now that they've committed $3 million more to another player next season.

Second, will the Flyers move anybody else? I think that's what a lot of people are waiting for. They have more forwards than they need, and Carcillo and Zherdev aren't going to have very prominent roles sans injuries. On the other hand, I think each player has little trade value and the Flyers don't need to dump salary if they don't want to.

Eklund at hockeybuzz says Zherdev might go on waivers soon. As an Eklund rumor, it is slightly more believable than a story my 4-year old niece might make up.

Personally, I think Zherdev is a mentally lazy player. When he gets room on the rush, his stickhandling and shooting is unmatched on the Flyers roster. The rest of the time, he's slow to react and has lapses in concentration at both ends of the ice. Because he can score, he'd be an attractive waiver wire option to teams, but I can't see many teams giving up an asset of any value to acquire him. I'd love to be wrong, however. For that reason, I'd hang on to Zherdev, because I think he has value as a wildcard that can keep opposing teams off balance over the course of a long series.

Maybe the Flyers are looking a few other options, but I doubt there will be much of consequence coming back to the Flyers. There's just no room among the skaters, and what goalie options are there? If they really wanted to do something big, they could trade JVR, who the Leafs reportedly wanted. I'm glad they didn't, and I expect they're not pursuing options down that road.

UPDATE: Maybe the Flyers will trade Zherdev for another defensemen? Zherdev for a team's bottom pair guy (who would be a #7 on the Flyers) is plausible. From the reliable Dreger Report:

Kris Versteeg gives the Philadelphia Flyers another top nine offensive weapon and sends a direct message to all of Philadelphia's rivals - the Flyers believe this is the year.

Paul Holmgren is still looking for a defenceman to round out his roster, but landing Versteeg was a priority for the Flyers GM.

Brian Burke was keenly interested in forward James Van Riemsdyk, but Holmgren made it clear that JVR was not going to be part of this deal.

Philadelphia is stronger today and because of that, Boston, Tampa Bay and all teams who consider themselves contenders may now be eagerly trying to measure up.

Another team source involved in trade discussions says as soon as the Versteeg trade to Philly was announced, his phone started ringing.

Flyers trade for Kris Versteeg

I am caught a little off-guard by this one. I have heard some rumors about the Flyers talking to the Leafs for a trade, maybe for Giguere, maybe for Versteeg, but there never seemed to be enough momentum to any deal to think anything was imminent, and thus worthy of being passed on to the loyal Mostly Flyers readership.

I just didn't see the Flyers and Leafs interests aligning, and I'm still not sure I do. The Leafs are clearly in rebuild mode, looking for youngsters and picks. The Flyers have few of both, but they decided to part some of the few picks they have.

Versteeg is a quality young player. He can play anywhere in the lineup, in all situations, and was a valuable member of the Hawks during their cup run. But did the Flyers need another forward? They seem to have enough trouble spreading around the ice time for the forwards they already have.

I presume Versteeg will be playing with Richards, and Nodl or JVR will be bumped off their spot there. Or I guess they could use him to stabilize the Carter-Giroux line that has seen Zherdev pass through. Either way, Nodl or JVR will be fighting for their ice time, and Zherdev and Carcillo are one step further out to the fringe of the squad.

The good news is that the Flyers didn't lose anything off their roster for this season. It appears they're going all-in for this season, and this may have been the best acquisition available to them to improve this year's squad (even if Versteeg is something of a luxury for a team that is already deep at forward). Goalie is their obvious achilles heel, but there may not have been any good options out there. I would've liked to see Erik Cole too, but I have to think acquiring Versteeg is the end of that.

Lastly, Versteeg is signed for next season at approximately $3 million. Hmm, exactly the same amount the Flyers have reportedly offered to Ville Leino... And then there's this report from over the weekend;

Meanwhile, contract talks with left wing Ville Leino appear to have stalled. The Flyers are believed to have offered Leino three- and four-year contract extensions worth $3 million a season. Leino, who is making $800,000 and is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1, apparently believes he is worth more on the open market.

The writing is on the wall for Leino's future with the Flyers I think.

A case of the mondays

A few tidbits today.

-It's now expected that Emery will sign with the Ducks, then spend a few weeks on their AHL team.

-The top scorers for the Flyers' opponents are dropping like flies. It's expected that today the Bruins will announce Savard as done for the year. Malkin is likely out for the year, and Crosby is still out indefinitely (though I would expect for the playoffs, no doubt). Good news for the Flyers I guess.

-Tim Panaccio reports that the Flyers have two options on the table for Ville Leino.

Several sources tell CSNPhilly.com that the Flyers are offering a three and four-year contract worth between $9 million and $12 million, depending upon length.

At least one prominent executive in the Flyers organization believes the 27-year-old right wing won’t get a better deal in unrestricted free agency this July than what the Flyers are offering.

Bill Zito, the agent for Leino, said he remains optimistic that an agreement will be reached before free agency. Zito would not comment on the two proposals or why his client hasn’t accepted one yet.

Others believe Zito wants to wait out the season and see how Leino’s numbers stack up against other players in free agency, and what his overall impact was on the Flyers.

Today, incidentally, is the one-year anniversary of Leino becoming a Flyer.

Leino said he remains optimistic on re-signing. On Friday, Leino said no formal offer has been presented to him.

As I understand it, the Flyers can't sign Ville Leino until after the season because that would put next year's payroll over the current cap, even if they expect the cap to go up next year. I previously calculated the Flyers have roughly $2.5 million in contract space to sign Leino without making other sacrifices. I think that's still more or less accurate. As Leino carried on at almost a point/game pace this season, however, I began to wonder if that would be enough.

It's good to see both parties want to make a deal. I'm sure the Flyers love how Leino fits this roster so perfectly, and honestly it's the perfect place for him to flourish. That said, if Leino has another big playoffs, other teams might be willing throw money at him as an UFA and it's hard to walk away if a significantly larger bid comes in. Personally, I will be nervous about Leino staying with the Flyers until the ink is dry on his new contract.

Report Card Day

Little did I realize, but the Flyers play their 42nd game tonight. Therefore it is very important to give out midseason grades immediately, lest they lose their eminence.

As a team, things have gone pretty much as well as anyone could've expected. ESPN seems to think highly of them.

Summary: The Flyers are without question the cream of the crop in the Eastern Conference. Even without veteran defenseman Chris Pronger, who should return from injury in the near future, the Flyers haven't missed a beat. They have great balance up front and steady netminding from Renaissance man Brian Boucher. Fewest road losses in the NHL also illustrate the team's maturity. Grade: A-plus. Trending: Up.

So there's that, and not much else to say.

As for players, without doing the tiresome grade for each one;

Thumbs Up

-Leino, killing it

-JVR, coming on and the team will be thrilled if he keeps it up

-Boucher, (see JVR)

-Briere, looking like the player everybody hoped for when signing the big contract

-Hartnell, doing his job well

-Giroux, breakthrough first third, needs to rev it back up.

-Meszaros, outperforming Carle and Coburn

-Nodl, ~20 goal pace for no-goal Nodl!

-Bobs, great start, will need to re-find that form to help Boucher

Holding steady, check back at playoff time

Pronger, Timonen, Richards, Carter, Carle, Coburn, O'Donnell, Betts

*shrugs*

Shelley, Carcillo, Bartulis, Zherdev

Random thought:

The Flyers will have a two-headed monster in net for the foreseeable future, would it be incredibly corny to nickname said beast Bobby Boucher/Waterboy?

Recapping the Cap (and Leino)

Currently, the Flyers cap for next year projects as follows:

Forwards

Leino (???) -Briere (6.5) -Hartnell (4.2)

Nodl [.8925] -Richards (5.75) -JVR (1.654)

????-Carter (5.27) -Giroux (3.75)

Powe [.761] -Betts (.7) -Shelley (1.1)

Total: 31.27

D

Pronger (4.9) - Carle (3.4)

Timo (6.3) - Coburn (3.2)

Mesz (4)-O'Donnell [1]

Total: 22.8

Goal

Bobo (1.75)

Leighton (1.55)

Total: 3.3

Overall: 57.37

Cap 10-11 - $59.4

There are so many variables in projecting something like this, that you have to make some assumptions to have any kind of meaningful conversation.

For the above, I assumed that Nodl and Powe will accept the Flyers' minimum RFA qualifying offers, and that O'Donnell will resign for the same amount. I also assumed that, one way or another, the following players will not be on the roster next year.

Laperriere

Carcillo

Walker

Zherdev

Boucher

One more assumption; the cap next year will go up by a few million. Let's say it goes up by $3.6 to an even $63 million.

So, given all these assumptions, the Flyers will have approximately $5.5 million in cap space to sign Leino, #12 and #13 forwards, and a #7 defensemen. The Flyers have also indicated in the past that they want to enter the season with at least $1 million in cap space to provide some flexibility during the season. That would reduce the functional signing space to $4.5 million.

Okay one more step. Let's say the Flyers sign cheap-o players for those bottom of the lineup guys at approximately $700k each.

I take a few things away from this breakdown;

1) The Flyers could absorb a signing of Leino without making other changes if he signs for less than $2.4 million

2) If Leino wants more than that, something else will have to go (I say Carle is the likely candidate)

3) Trying to project all this when there are still so many variables floating around is pretty much a futile exercise.