Gagner vs. Voracek

With the news that the Flyers will be keeping Sam Gagner on the roster, I thought it would be worthwhile to try and feel out some reasonable expectations for him this season.  The easiest place to begin is to compare him to Jake Voracek.

Gagner and Voracek are the same age, and were taken #6 and #7 respectively in the 2007 NHL draft. For quite a while they were regarded about equally.  Take a look at their points/game to this point in their NHL careers.

Gagner immediately was promoted to the NHL and had a pretty good season (his second highest points/minute in career, in fact).  After that, the players tracked very closely for the next 4 years.

Things really took off for Voracek in his second full season with the Flyers, in the strike shortened year.  Still, many would probably say they were still closely comparable, as evidenced by their contracts.  In his breakout season, Voracek was in the first year of a 4 year deal that pays him $4.25m/year (this upcoming season is the last season of this contract).  After that same season, the Oilers signed Gagner to a deal that paid him $4.8m/year.  Maybe the Oilers were foolish, and Voracek would've cashed in on the big year a bit, but it still shows their general respect level around the league were similar.

Things really went off the rails for Gagner in 2013-2014, as he registered a career worst 37 points, and had the second worst plus/minus on the team.  This resulted in the Oilers casting him off, ultimately landing arriving in Arizona via Tampa Bay.  His stats didn't improve much last season in the desert, although to be fair he was the top scoring forward on a team with no talent up front.

There aren't a lot of indicators that Gagner is due for a bounce-back season this year with the Flyers.  He does however fill a need for the Flyers, as in my opinion their top off-season need was skill on the wings.  Gagner and the Flyers must hope that a permanent move to the wing and the change of scenery to Philadelphia will reinvigorate his career.  The Flyers are probably hoping for 45-50 points from him, and anything above that will be a bonus. 

Maybe the Flyers can make it three in a row on reclamation projects; Mason, Del Zotto, then Gagner.

Del Zotto Contract

 Speaking of Del Zotto, it was announced today that the Flyers re-signed Michael Del Zotto.  He was due for an arbitration hearing next week.

The details of the deal is that it's a 2 year deal, at a cap hit of $3.875/year.  I don't love the deal, but I don't hate it either.  I'm not completely sold on Del Zotto's all around game, but the guy deserves credit.  He came in on a put-up-or-shut-up one year deal, and scored 10 goals and 32 points in 64 games.  I was expecting his deal to be between $3.5 and 4 million, although I had lingering fears of a higher cap hit or a long term.  With a 2-year deal, the Flyers aren't married to him long term, which is needed flexibility with all the young defensemen the Flyers have coming up.

The Flyers now have around $300k and change of cap space, if you include Manning on the squad.  They would get back $625k if they send him down to the AHL.

What's Working, What Isn't

One month into the season, some truths around this year's team are settling in.

-FTW.  Voracek is playing amazing.  Clearly the best performer on the team right now.  I attended the LA Kings game last week, and he was easily the best player on the ice for either team IMO.  With 18 points in 12 games, only Crosby has more points.  He's still not much of a shooter in my opinion, but he is a top-notch puck carrier and his 10-pound weight loss in the offseason has worked out really well, noticeably increasing his quickness and stamina.

-FAIL.  The team has no Hartnell replacement on the top line or top PP-unit.  Raffl has done pretty well playing with Voracek and Giroux, tying Simmonds for the team lead in goals largely with his skating and by popping up in good spots on both ends of the ice.  Still, he's just a complementary player, and he doesn't play on the PP either.  And now he's out for 6 weeks as ANOTHER Flyers gets injured after being struck with a shot in the foot.  The man the Flyers received for Hartnell, R.J. Umberger, is appearing in games according to the box scores, but I cannot verify that fact after watching the games.

-FTW.  PPs against are way down.  The Flyers are currently in 6th in the league in times shorthanded.  They were 29th last year, and dead last the two years before that.

-FAIL.  The PP is down, and their failure to convert chances at key junctures in games has cost them points in the standings.  Part of that is Hartnell down, and part of the is Streit replacing Timonen.  Streit is a good PP player, but his style is much different.  Streit loves to shoot (and has a much better shot that Timonen), whereas Timonen was a manager back there.  Streit's style may lead to a little more streakiness in results if the bounces don't go your way when you fire it in there.  Additionally, when Lecavalier returned from injury he was immediately put into the Hartnell high slot spot, but by the end of the game Schenn was reinserted there.  I guess Schenn will get an extended opportunity on the ice with top talent there, even if he lost the chance to play LW with Giroux and Voracek at even strength.  Let's see what you can do, young man.

-FTW.  Michael Del Zotto's role is increasing, often leading the team in ice time.  He holds onto the puck longer than any other defensemen on the roster, which was a trait this defensive group was generally lacking.

-FAIL.  Ghost was gone in a flash.  I don't blame the team, but I was hoping to see a few flashes from Ghost before he was sent back down.  I did like what I saw from Colaiacovo in his first game, reading the game well and managing the puck.  It will be interesting to see how a defense corps prominently featuring multiple guys whose NHL career was on the fringes (Colaiacovo, Del Zotto, Schultz) does over the next few weeks while MacDonald and Coburn recover.