Monthly Post Recap

In the month of September, I wrote the following pieces over at Broad Street Buzz about the Flyers.

• Steve Mason Can't Get No Respect
• AHL the Best Place for Ghost...For Now
• Flyers Bounce-Back Players and What to Expect
• Figuring Out the Schenn Brothers Future in Philadelphia
• 3 Gagne Playoff Highlights to Remembers as he Retires
• The Top 20 Flyers Nicknames and Slogans

Also, I'm still doing a Flyers flipboard magazine of news links.  It's here.

Is This the New Normal?

Flyers wrapped up a 4 game road trip, 1-1-2.  It is an improvement from the terrible stretch of play discussed in my last post, as they were competitive in every game.  Is this the best we can ask of this team?  To be merely be competitive?

Sequentially, the Flyers played a pretty good game in SJ but came away empty handed due to a shocking last minute goal against.  They followed that up with a fun game against Anaheim, including a clutch last second goal and the seemingly inevitable shootout loss.  The Flyers finally got a win versus LA, where they've had a lot of success the last few years, by having a good first 30 minutes, then hanging on for dear life the last 30.  The trip then ended with a bit of a thud, getting outplayed most of the game by Columbus (one of the worst teams in the East).

It's nice to see Schenn producing, and guys like Umberger are showing modest improvement, but the team feels like a mess.  There's some musical chairs happening on defense, and Lecavalier has been stuck in the press box.  It's an untenable state of affairs, and there's little reason to be expect a significant turnaround.

The Flyers are swimming with the bottom-dwellers in the standings.  If you break down their performance, they deserve to be there.

5v5: 22nd
Shot differential: 22nd
PP: 4th
PK: 29th
Save Percentage: 18th

Right now the Flyers are mediocre team with a crippling penalty kill.

I am also hearing some fans say they aren't surprised by this.  I will say that I AM, to some extent.  The bottom line is the Flyers were one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference from November 1 onwards last season (3rd overall I think, only behind Boston and Pittsburgh).  Now I certainly wouldn't have predicted them 3rd this year, especially without Timonen, but I thought they had a very good chance at a bottom half playoff spot.

That playoff spot is rapidly slipping away, leading many fans to talk of tanking to get highly anticipated prospects McDavid or Eichel.  Personally, I am not a fan of this plan, and there's not much reason to do so.  Here are the lottery odds this year.

It is true that finishing dead last would guarantee the Flyers a top 2 pick and one of McDavid or Eichel.  Beyond that, each slot on that chart only increases your chance at the #1 pick by a very small amount.  I think the bottom line is that the Flyers are a significantly better team than Edmonton, Buffalo and Carolina, and the Flyers lottery odds will be in the middle of the pack for non-playoff teams; i.e. not good.

Instead of chasing lottery balls, the Flyers can transition into making moves that won't pay off for another season or two.  Even then the Flyers don't have any obvious playoff rental material, but they can start shipping out defensemen as the defense will have to be entirely rebuilt anyway.

As sad as it is to say, it may be time for Flyers fans to switch into player development watching mode.  Giroux and Voracek are undoubtedly top notch players, but that's not enough.  Personally, I'll probably be spending much of this season focusing on the development of Schenn, Couturier and Laughton.

Flyers Searching for the Bottom

Any way you look at it, it's awful.  The Flyers are 1-7-1 in their last 9.  Only laughing stocks Buffalo, Carolina, and Edmonton, and injury-ravaged Columbus have worse records.  The penalty kill is dead last.  They have been dominated in their last 2 road division games against the Rangers and Islanders.  The Flyers are in the bottom handful of teams in shot differential, 5v5 Corsi percentage, and team save percentage.  The bottom line, is they are getting whipped.

Everyone knows the defense is not talented enough, but the problems have become much bigger.  For one thing, their team defensive coverage is terrible.  It seems opponents find countless passing seams to exploit and are quicker to every loose puck, and that's when someone is not completely unmarked in the slot.  One could look at the Detroit loss and conclude maybe the rebounds and bounces simply didn't go in favor of the Flyers, but when it happens every night, it's not luck.

Second, the offense is completely reliant on the Giroux line.  Giroux is generally doing his thing, Schenn is contributing right now, and Voracek continues to be spectacular.  Every other line has disappeared.  Lecavalier can't find a role.  Umberger has been total deadweight.  Couturier handles the puck like a hot potato and immediately looks to get rid of it.  Simmonds has faded after his promising start.  Then end result is that Giroux and Voracek have been on the ice for every single Flyers goal in the last 4 games.

Bad team defense and completely one dimensional scoring is a recipe for a last place team.  The Flyers had a similarly bad start last year amongst the coaching change, but as I've already written, there's no excuse for such a start this year.  Furthermore, there is no clear path for the Flyers to crawl out of this mess.  I expect things to naturally rebound a little, but given the depth of the problems, hope for a playoff spot appears increasingly distant.

Trade Speculation: Oilers and Flyers

The Oilers are terrible.  They and Buffalo are the worst teams in the league.  Most recently, the Oilers were crushed 7-1 at home by the Blackhawks and were booed and heckled off the ice.  As you would expect, fans are frustrated and the team must be looking at all alternatives of management changes or making a trade.

The latest buzz is that the Oilers want a center, and are dangling David Perron.  In the past, the Oilers were looking for defense, and they may or may not have been close to trading for Coburn.  One version of the story is that Flyers asked for Eberle for Coburn, but then Oilers wanted to include Simmonds in the deal.

Whatever happened then, is there a deal out there now?  Perron might be the kind of player Hextall is looking to add.  The Flyers sorely lack skill wingers.  Now 26, Perron is a skilled and energetic winger.  I think there were high hopes for him in St. Louis, but his time there was derailed with concussions.  He's probably not a defensive zone stalwart, and his cap hit is ~$3.8 million this year and next until he is a free agent.

Perron had a solid first season in Edmonton last year with 57 points in 78 games.  This year, he has 10 in 21, with one of the worst +/- on the team, even though his Corsi rating is one of the best on the team.  Advanced stats also show he hardly gets any defensive zone starts, which may contribute to that high Corsi rating and speak to their (lack of) defensive trust in him.

While some have floated that the Oilers are looking for a #1 center, there's no way Perron is going to fetch that.  Would they be interested in Schenn or Couturier?  I think they'd listen.

Schenn and Couturier are both a few years younger than Perron, and their career potential is still uncertain.  Over the last year or so, Couturier has seemed to be more valued than Schenn.  This season, Schenn is outperforming Couturier. 

In my opinion, Couturier's development has been pretty disappointing, showing little offensive initiative and participating in an awful, awful penalty kill.  Every time he gets the puck, he almost immediately stops skating, holds it, and looks to dish it off.  Playing like that, it's no wonder he hasn't tallied a point in 15 out of 20 games this season.  Then again, he was the ice time leader for the Flyers last night.

Either way, Hextall is not going to trade either young player based on how many points they have in the last month.  The Flyers look like they will be in a for a battle just to reach the playoffs this year, and Hextall does not appear inclined to seek short term solutions.  Perron being older and closer to UFA status probably kills a swap for a young Flyers center.

The only remaining wrinkle is if this could rekindle Coburn talks.  Coburn is a defensive anchor, though he's not a game-changer.  He plays a lot of minutes for the Flyers, and he could do the same in Edmonton for several more seasons.  He would be a good addition for Edmonton, I think.

My thought is, that Flyers defense is lousy, and with or without Coburn it's going to remain generally mediocre this season.  Hextall's prescription for fixing the defense is to wait for young guys to develop, and by the time that happens Coburn will need a new contract.  Trading Coburn and giving Perron 1.5 seasons in Philadelphia to earn a spot on the team and a new contract might be an interesting way to develop the team with an eye to the future when it would be primed for serious playoff runs.  Young reinforcements are coming to the Flyers defense, while there are not many on the way to put on the wings.

A Week Without Points

Things were looking up for the Flyers, with 3 consecutive wins in strong performances.  After an extended break, the Flyers lost all that momentum and came away empty handed against the Blue Jackets and Canadiens over the weekend.

Those two teams represented the opposite ends of the spectrum, as the Canadiens are first overall, and the Blue Jackets last.  The result was the same against both however.  I thought the performance against the Blue Jackets performance was sloppy, while the Canadiens game mainly got away from the Flyers despite some battling.

The real takeaway from both games is that the Flyers yielded 3 PP goals against in each.  You won't win many games giving up 3 PP goals, regardless of who you're playing.  The Flyers' penalty kill is now ranked 29th, and they've been shorthanded more often recently. 

It's too early in the season to be scoreboard watching and checking the standings.  The Flyers really should just be concerned about getting the point they can by themselves, but these penalty killing problems must be addressed ASAP or they will continue to drop points.


Notes
-Brayden Schenn's stock is rising recently.  He's on a 5 game point streak, scoring 7 points in those games.  When he was moved to the Read-Couturier line, that line looked much more perky offensively, and when he slid in with Giroux and Voracek against Montreal he scored twice.  He now has 13 points in 16 games overall.

-The Umberger-Lecavalier line has looked pretty hopeless.  Clearly the Flyers worst line IMO.  Umberger has remained invisible, and while Lecavalier has been getting PP time, he hasn't been very effective.  Against Montreal, he was extremely trigger happy and attempted 12 shots, but only one of those even found its way to Price.

What's Working, What Isn't

One month into the season, some truths around this year's team are settling in.

-FTW.  Voracek is playing amazing.  Clearly the best performer on the team right now.  I attended the LA Kings game last week, and he was easily the best player on the ice for either team IMO.  With 18 points in 12 games, only Crosby has more points.  He's still not much of a shooter in my opinion, but he is a top-notch puck carrier and his 10-pound weight loss in the offseason has worked out really well, noticeably increasing his quickness and stamina.

-FAIL.  The team has no Hartnell replacement on the top line or top PP-unit.  Raffl has done pretty well playing with Voracek and Giroux, tying Simmonds for the team lead in goals largely with his skating and by popping up in good spots on both ends of the ice.  Still, he's just a complementary player, and he doesn't play on the PP either.  And now he's out for 6 weeks as ANOTHER Flyers gets injured after being struck with a shot in the foot.  The man the Flyers received for Hartnell, R.J. Umberger, is appearing in games according to the box scores, but I cannot verify that fact after watching the games.

-FTW.  PPs against are way down.  The Flyers are currently in 6th in the league in times shorthanded.  They were 29th last year, and dead last the two years before that.

-FAIL.  The PP is down, and their failure to convert chances at key junctures in games has cost them points in the standings.  Part of that is Hartnell down, and part of the is Streit replacing Timonen.  Streit is a good PP player, but his style is much different.  Streit loves to shoot (and has a much better shot that Timonen), whereas Timonen was a manager back there.  Streit's style may lead to a little more streakiness in results if the bounces don't go your way when you fire it in there.  Additionally, when Lecavalier returned from injury he was immediately put into the Hartnell high slot spot, but by the end of the game Schenn was reinserted there.  I guess Schenn will get an extended opportunity on the ice with top talent there, even if he lost the chance to play LW with Giroux and Voracek at even strength.  Let's see what you can do, young man.

-FTW.  Michael Del Zotto's role is increasing, often leading the team in ice time.  He holds onto the puck longer than any other defensemen on the roster, which was a trait this defensive group was generally lacking.

-FAIL.  Ghost was gone in a flash.  I don't blame the team, but I was hoping to see a few flashes from Ghost before he was sent back down.  I did like what I saw from Colaiacovo in his first game, reading the game well and managing the puck.  It will be interesting to see how a defense corps prominently featuring multiple guys whose NHL career was on the fringes (Colaiacovo, Del Zotto, Schultz) does over the next few weeks while MacDonald and Coburn recover.

Positive Steps

After an 0-2-2 start, just about anything would be an improvement.  A 2-1-0 road trip against quality teams however is a success under any circumstance.

I already wrote about all the good to take from the Dallas game.  Since then, the Flyers were thoroughly worked over by Chicago, and had a nice win over Pittsburgh.

My first takeaway is that there is still a considerable chasm in quality between the Flyers and a true cup contender like Chicago.  The Flyers simply couldn't keep up.

The second takeaway is that the East is generally well behind the West.  The Penguins may ultimately be one of the better teams in the East, and the Flyers simply beat 'em.  The Flyers have a great record in Pittsburgh, and sometimes rivalry games have a life of their own outside general team trends, but the conclusion I lean towards is that the Flyers can make noise in a mediocre Eastern Conference.

Already with the Trade Rumors:
There is already some fleeting trade talk around the Flyers, principally around Brayden Schenn.  While there are no specifics to consider at this point, I can make some general comments about Schenn.

I haven't been impressed with the way he is developing the last few years, and it appears the Flyers aren't either.  When they acquired what many seemed to rank as one of the best prospects in hockey, I think the Flyers expected to get a high quality second-line center, if not a guy who could be the #1 for many teams.

Right now, I think there is some question is if Schenn can even be a second line center.  He gets some chances, he pops up in good places in the offensive zone, but he rarely makes a significant contribution scoring or creating for others.

While Schenn is off to a bad start this season, underwhelming on Giroux's wing and on the top PP unit, it's too early to cash him out.  It's not impossible that he find his niche as a second line player, and it's still early days of the season.  What should make Schenn sweat long term is if Couturier shows offensive ability this season, and Laughton keeps killing it in the AHL.  At that point there is no need for under-performing young center on the club.

Still Waiting

So a new blog post from me has finally come.  A first victory for the Flyers this season, has not.

Flyers fans, ever the patient bunch, are likely tempted to jump off a bridge right now.  The start of 0-2-2 is very worrying, but I won't declare them an awful team just yet.

My main fallback on this point is that, as I ran the numbers last year, between November and March 26 the Flyers were the 5th best team in the NHL.  This team is basically the same squad, minus Timonen and Hartnell.

The Flyers took a lot of flack in the offseason as they appeared to do nothing but make themselves weaker.  They traded Hartnell, and Timonen went down with a devastating injury.  In addition, Steve Mason is still not well respected around the league as an above-average starting goalie.

Four games into the season, the critics were right.  With #HartnellDown the team has no quality LW, Mason looked shaky, and the defense was inept.  Last year a slow start was forgivable due to Giroux's injury and the coaching change.  This was why I was willing to look at the standings from November 1 on and wipe away October.  The Flyers do not deserve that leniency this year.

An alternative view of things is that the Flyers can only win if Giroux is playing at an MVP level and the power play is pouring in goals.  Last year, the Flyers had the worst 5v5 goal differential of all playoff teams.  This year the power play is looking solid, although they still haven't really found a replacement for Hartnell's high slot role on the number one unit.  That is a long term worry, but the big thing is the 5v5 play has gone from average to awful.  They'll never be a juggernaut there with this roster, but they have to get back to average, and that fact may hinge upon Giroux finding superlative form.


Miscellaneous Notes:
-Simmonds is currently playing at a level that I never saw him reaching.  5 goals in 4 games, and showing an offensive poise I didn't expect.  He's always been a streaky scorer, but I daresay this is more than a hot streak with a few consecutive bang-in goals.

-The Schenn brothers have been very disappointing.  Luke Schenn is staring at a league worst -6 rating, and Brayden has not made an offensive impression.  Personally, I think Luke's +/- reflects a lot of goals that I wouldn't blame him for, and that Luke could be a serviceable player with the right partner in the right role.  As for Brayden, I am running out of patience for him to emerge as an impact offensive player.  That he lasted less than 2 games on the wing with Giroux and Voracek is his failure.

-Bellemare has looked pretty good to me.  He skates smoothly and thinks fast, which will get him far.  Like Raffl, he needs a few dozen games on the 4th line to fully adapt to the NHL.

-Lecavalier has also looked impressive to me.  I also thought he looked pretty good at the beginning of last season and showed some chemistry with B. Schenn before injuries really ruined his season.  It's bad timing for him to get injured now, although taking a shot off the foot shouldn't create the same kind of lingering injury that the bad back did to him last year.

Save the Date

Apparently June 23rd is a big day for the Flyers.  In 2011, Carter and Richards were shipped out on June 23rd.  In 2012, JVR was traded on June 23rd.  This year, the Flyers conducted some other noteworthy business.

Hartnell for Umberger
In a move basically no one saw coming, the Flyers traded Scott Hartnell for RJ Umberger and a 4th round pick.  Everyone knew Umberger wanted out from Columbus, but Hartnell leaving Philly is a surprise.  The purposes of the trade are not obvious, but there are a few things to take away.

One, this appears to be Flyers re-tailoring their rosters for Hextall-Berube hockey.  Most would say Hartnell is the better player, but Hartnell is a clumsy player.  Stylistically, Umberger is a better skater and much better in possession.  While not a young speedster, he is closer to Berube's "play faster-think faster" mantra.

Two, the Flyers only get minor, delayed cap relief.  Hextall said he just let it be known he was looking for cap relief, and this trade just kind of came up.  Truthfully, Umberger's and Hartnell's cap hits are nearly identical ($4.750m v $4.6m), although Umberger's contract has two fewer years left on it.  Hextall is looking ahead to two seasons from now when Voracek will be a UFA, and Couturier and Schenn will be RFAs.  Umberger will still have one more left on his contract at that point, however.

The last point is that Umberger's has been declining.  His first three years in Columbus were reliably productive, but his last three seasons have been poor.  He played 74 games last season, albeit through a few tough injuries that may have slowed him down.  He and Hartnell are the same age, and it will be interested to see where each of this guys are physically in 2 years.

Umberger will be a versatile forward for the Flyers who may help a bit in puck possession, but he does not improve the team in any significant way.  Hartnell's departure also opens a hole on the top PP unit.

Schenn signed
On the same day, the Flyers also did something far more predictable.  Completing Hextall's self described #1 offseason priority, he signed Brayden Schenn.

It's a relatively short, cheap, "bridge contract" than many players his age receive.  It provides the team with an affordable young talent, while leaving the player the opportunity to earn a significant raise with his next contract (ask PK Subban about that one).

With Hartnell gone, Schenn might see time on left wing of the top line.  Either way, it's time for Schenn to show everyone what's he got.  At one time he projected as a prospective number 1 NHL center, but now there is some question if he will even be a good #2.  I can't say I see visual evidence that he is on the cusp of a breakout, but the development of a young player isn't linear either.

He plays a different style than Couturier, but the players will always be compared as young centers and potential future pillars of the team, acquired at the same day (June 23!).  I think it's safe to say Schenn's stock in the organization has dropped below Couturier at this time, but now he's got two years raise his stock back up.

Offseason Do's and Don'ts: Kesler

This week it has been reported that Ryan Kesler still wants out of Vancouver, and that the Flyers are one of the few teams on his list of acceptable teams.  Unfortunately for him, Kesler should not be on the Flyers' list of trade candidates.

One reason is that the Flyers perpetually have too many centers.  This team already has Giroux as the #1, Lecavalier and Schenn as possible #2s, Couturier as #3, and Scott Laughton coming up.  That group could occupy those spots for a long time.  Kesler can play wing, but why shoehorn him into the lineup that way?

A second reason is that Kesler has been trending down.  He's still a solid 2 way center, but his days of being a 70 point player appear behind him, and he's been in the 40 point range the last 2 full seasons.  He plays a physically demanding style, and as someone who'll turn 30 this summer, production will likely sag and injuries will likely mount in the coming seasons.

Lastly, Vancouver will probably ask for Brayden Schenn and other sweeteners like a 1st round pick and/or a prospect in return.  Personally, I wouldn't trade Schenn straight up for Kesler at this point.  Their production next year will likely be comparable, although Kesler would be more reliable defensively.  Schenn is only 22 however, and his production will likely rise in the coming seasons.  Additionally, although not yet signed, Schenn should be significantly cheaper than Kesler's cap hit of $5 million the next two seasons.

A quick little chart of production:

Kesler had a big breakout season at 24, but I would rather go with Schenn and hope he develops similarly, rather than pay Kesler for what he's done in the past and hope he finds it again in his 30s.

If Hextall is at all serious about his pledge to focus on holding onto youth long term, acquiring Kesler this offseason makes little sense for the Flyers.  Fortunately, I see no indication that they actually are interested anyway.

It Begins

I guess it's time to get off my ass and write something here, being that the season starts tonight.  Woohoo!

I'm still firmly in wait and see mode, but I will say that I see this year's Flyers team as a borderline playoff team.  I'd put the chances of them making the playoffs at a little below 50%.  This partly has to do with a horrific preseason, but moreso because I'm reading it together with last season.  Hardcore Mostly Flyers readers will recall this post of mine, and my opinions really haven't changed since this time.

I am very worried about the Flyers ability to score at 5-on-5.  The Flyers just don't attack with efficiency and purpose.  Whether it's coaching, motivation, or talent, the Flyers often look apathetic and aimless.

There are tangible reasons I can say to myself why it should be better this year.  Lecavalier has 61 even strength points over the last 2 years, while Briere only 42 during that time.  Hartnell is in the best shape of his life after being injured and unprepared last season.  Brayden Schenn (who shall hereafter be referred to as "Bo", mainly because I want to have the brothers Bo and Luke on the Flyers roster) and Cooter are a year older.

The defense, however, did not get much of a makeover, and is curiously still bloated with 8 defensemen on the roster.  I've been waiting for a trade on that count for months.  Something's got to give there.  Streit is a PP specialist, but he's been on the second PP unit thus far because the old first unit was so effective last year, and he may not get much more than 3rd pair even strength minutes.  This is a not a sea change for a defense that appeared ill-equipped last season.

While the goalie tandem of Mason and Emery should provide the most uncertainty (in an entertaining fashion, for better or worse), the million dollar question is Laviolette's leash.  Can he survive a slow start?  I won't beat a dead horse with my opinion on the matter, but I think Laviolette has more to prove than the players  That's never a good thing.

Okay, now I have all my fretting out of the way.  Let a fun season begin!

Do the Flyers Regret Signing Streit?

The question of the day is, with Lecavalier in the fold, do the Flyers regret their early move to add Streit?

The Flyers have said they did not expect Lecavalier to be bought out, and signing him was a move of opportunity.  Surely when the Flyers made the move to acquire Streit they had an offseason plan laid out that did not include freely picking up a prominent center for $4.5m.  However, had the Flyers known they could add Lecavalier, I suspect they would not have added Streit.

Clearly, the Flyers are trying to move a defensemen now due to lack of cap space.  Coburn could fetch a decent return, but I'm not too keen on the idea of subtracting a top-4 defensemen.  Meszaros, coming off a poor injury-riddled season and a UFA to-be, has little to nil trade value.  It feels like the Flyers are scrambling a bit, basically because they are.

I believe that, with Lecavalier, the Flyers are more willing to move Schenn or Couturier.  Those two had a disappointing season last year as the Flyers second line struggled, but the Flyers had no choice but to rely on those guys on the 2nd and 3rd line and hope for improvement from them.  Therefore, the option of trading them was particularly unappealing for the Flyers.  Now the second line has received a substantial shot in the arm, so while that doesn't degrade the trade value of Schenn or Cooter, they are not as critical to the upcoming season.

Accounting for Lecavalier before making any moves on defense, the Flyers could've made a move for a younger, better all-around defensemen than Streit.  Something like Schenn+Mesz+Read/picks for Yandle?  Or even something better for Pietrangelo?  In such a case, there would be no more talk of trading Coburn, and a second pair of Yandle/Coburn looks much more formidable than a potential pair of Streit/Grossmann.

Of course the Flyers could still make such a trade, but they are awfully tight to the cap to be paying Streit $5.25m to get 3rd pair minutes.

Jumping out in front of the market for an early move is a go-to play for Holmgren (Hartnell/Timonen, Bryzgalov, even re-signing Leighton), but by not letting events unfold and fully capitalizing on opportunities as they come, the Flyers make a different kind of risk.

Never a Dull Moment

I've said it before, but being a Flyers fan is just fun sometimes.  Whenever anyone of note becomes available, the Flyers are sniffing around.  Maybe always chasing the big move, the short term fix, has hampered the Flyers ability to win a cup.

Regardless of whether this is true, the Flyers are consistently one of the best teams in the NHL, and made deep cup runs in 95, 97, 2000, 2004 and 2010.  On top of that, there's always something to talk about, and rarely a forgettable season.

Tonight's signing of Lecavalier is a show-stopper and continues the tradition.

Now first, it's important to realize Lecavalier's days as a superstar are behind him.  Since his days as the #1 pick in 98, when then-TB owner naively labelled him the Michael Jordan of hockey, there's always been a superstar aura around him.  Truthfully, he only performed at that level for a brief period of time, and TB signed him up to contract with a cap hit of $7.7m/season under that spell.  Now 33, he hasn't hit 30 goals in 5 seasons.

With all the wonderful weirdness of this offseason and the compliance buyouts, the Flyers can look at him purely as a second line center.  While adding a big name forward seemed low on the priority list for the Flyers, a big issue with last season's team that no one talks about was terrible secondary scoring (meanwhile, the goaltending that everyone talks about was actually fine).  The team put a heavy burden on Couturier and Schenn to develop quickly into scoring roles, and it didn't happen last season.  This move does NOT mean they are giving up on either of them, but it does relieve that burden.  Additionally, the Flyers wanted to get bigger up front, and Lecavalier is 6'4".

Lecavalier's contract is reported to be at $4.5x5.  This is decent cap hit.  It's not without risks, going to his 38th birthday for a player who will decline over the life of deal, but consider the comparables of contending teams' second line centers.  Boston is paying Krejci $5.25m for his 33 points last year.  LA is paying Carter $5.27m for his 33 points.  Pittsburgh is paying Crosby and Malkin each ~$9m.  Lecavalier's 32 points at $4.25m looks pretty good.

Nor does this signing put the Flyers in an onerous cap position.  With some simple moves, the Flyers current cap picture looks like this:

The Flyers could easily sign a platoon goalie and put that lineup out there.

More likely some more tweaking will be done to this lineup and a defensemen will go.  The Flyers could either move Meszaros in what will basically be a salary dump, or they could try for a significant return for Coburn (and even now have the freedom throw in Schenn or Couturier now that Lecavalier is on board and Laughton is coming up).

Presuming the simpler transaction of dumping Meszaros, and running with some rumors about potential signings, the Flyers opening day lineup could very well look like this:

That lineup is clearly better than last year's team, and quite honestly better than I thought the Flyers could put together this offseason while being comfortably under the cap (although the defense is still underwhelming).  Either way, next season would be a lot of fun.

Draft Do-Over?

Regardless of where the Flyers end up picking in this draft, there's always the question of drafting to need.  Most accepted is the theory of drafting the best player available, regardless of position.  It would be pretty stupid to draft to fill a particular need of an NHL roster, simply because most draft picks take years to mature into NHL contributors.  Who knows what your specific needs will be in 5 years?  Whether or not there may be some logic in drafting for an organizational need, however, after identifying lack of depth in a certain area, isn't necessarily so stupid.

The Flyers in fact may have been much better served doing so.

Think back 2 years ago, when the Flyers obtained the Blue Jackets' #8 overall pick, a rare high pick for the Flyers.  At the time, I wrote that the Flyers would presumably look for a defensemen there.  As the draft unfolded, the chips appeared to fall perfectly for the Flyers.  As expected, Adam Larsson was the #1 defensemen available and was quickly snatched up.  After the surprise choice of Scheifele by the Jets though, #2 defensemen Dougie Hamilton was, somewhat surprisingly, still on the board when the Flyers picked.  Easy choice, right?

Not so fast, as Sean Couturier was unexpectedly still available as well.  His draft stock had fallen somewhat, as several months prior he was considered a potential #1 overall.  I think when all is said and done, the Flyers simply thought Couturier was a better player so they drafted him, despite the organization being deep at center with no high-end defensive prospects to speak of.

Two years later, things haven't changed much.  The Flyers are still well-stocked at center for now and the future with Giroux, Briere, Schenn, Couturier, Laughton and Cousins, but they are absolutely screaming for high-end (preferably puck-moving) defensive prospects.  This is not knock on Couturier at all, as I have said repeatedly I think he is the Flyers best prospect since Lindros.  He's had some very tough stretches this season, but I think he will bounce back and likely be a second-line center than Schenn, honestly (better defensively, bigger, and similar offensive potential based on what I'm seeing).

The only thing that hurts is what they could've had in Hamilton.  Since the draft, Hamilton won Canadien Junior defensemen of the year last year, and this year has become a key member of the cup contending Bruins.  He's getting PP time, taking shifts with Chara, has 15 points in 40 games, and overall playing 16-18 minutes a night.  He's also 6'5", has a right-handed shot, and clearly projects as a top pairing guy in the long run.  In other words, EXACTLY what the Flyers organization needs.

Because of the situation described above, the Flyer may trade Couturier this offseason.  He's their most valuable asset, and it may make sense to slot Schenn in at #2 center and Laughton at #3 (assuming he keeps impressing), leaving Couturier with no clear spot.  Oh, and the Flyers now have more of a need than ever for a long term puck-moving solution on defense.  If the Flyers want to address this problem, Couturier is the best tool to do so.  Or they could've just drafted differently 2 years ago and not have to play the fickle trade market....

What's Hot, What's Not

Today I'm going to pretend I'm a 90s supermarket tabloid, and quickly cover many subjects in a peurile hot list.

What's Hot:  Jake Voracek.  Everyone has taken note of his recent points explosion and NHL player of the week award, though he's been the Flyers best player for a few weeks now.  His season reminds me of Hartnell last year; started out pretty rough (0 goals and 2 assists in his first 7 games) and fans called him out before having a torrid stretch for a few games.  Hartnell played that out into a full season of excellence scoring at the rate of a goal every other game the rest of the season.  Similarly, Voracek showed up for the season overweight, and started out with only 3 points in 8 games, but has 18 points in 13 games since.  Voracek has always been a hardworker on the ice during games, but I think there was some perception in Columbus that his off-ice habits weren't the best.  Either way, hopefully this is a true career turning point and Voracek becomes a point a game player, which I wasn't sure would ever happen.

What's Not:  Ilya Bryzgalov.  He started out great, but has been slowly but steadily slipping.  He's played an absurd amount of games, and his game is showing cracks.  He's fighting in there, but he's increasingly sloppy in angles and is leaking stoppable goals.  Too bad the Flyers back-ups don't offer much relief.

What's Hot:  The Flyers first PP unit.  This unit is moving the puck with confidence and scoring goals.  When the Flyers win, it's usually because this unit has come up with key goals.

What's Not:  The Flyers second PP unit.  These guys are still pretty hopeless.

What's Hot:  Brayden Schenn.  I won't say he's been tearing it up with irresistible play, but his 15 points in 14 February games almost matches his 18 for the entirety of last season.  That's progress.

What's Not:  Trading for veterans or rentals.  I've said it before and I'll say it again, the Flyers this year are not a great team, and they are not a player away from being a cup contender.  This doesn't rule out all trades, but trading youth and picks for veteran rentals is not wise.  Holmgren, apparently, can't help himself from trading away draft picks, and he re-acquired Simon Gagne yesterday for a 4th round pick (a 3rd rounder if Flyers make the playoffs, which I'm sure Holmgren is planning to do).  Mind you, Gagne is a pretty old and fragile 33, only playing 34 games for the Kings last year and has been a healthy scratch their last 4 games.  He's still got speed and smarts, but he doesn't go to scoring areas anymore.  I suspect the Flyers will put him on the 2nd PP unit mentioned above and let him try to snipe a few though.


The trade winds are blowing around the Flyers for sure.  I just hope Homer doesn't lose his head and trade for a rental.  If it's a restructuring trade for a young defensemen, I would give up some quality as it suits both long and short term needs.  If it's trading for an aging UFA to-be to squeeze a little more out of this year's squad, that is misguided.  Briere rumors have started, and that could make sense as he's not been a big regular season performer for the Flyers, but he has been absolutely money in the playoffs, and he's only owed $5 million in real dollars over the next two seasons.  That should interest other teams.  Trading Couturier on the hand (who I'm sure other teams will ask for) will give me shit-fits, although I'll allow an exception if it's for a young defensemen who projects as a top pair guy.

Until then, look for the Flyers to scrape out wins on the backs of Voracek, their PP and Bryzgalov.  If any one of those factors takes the night off, it's probably not going to be a good night for the Flyers.

Flyers Finding Their Niche

I have written that this year's Flyers really aren't all that good a team, and I haven't seen anything to make me change my mind.  They're not contenders, but they are finding their niche as a bubble playoff team.

After a pretty rough start, the Flyers took 7 of 8 points from a 4 game homestand.  The wins were hardly commanding victories, but they scrapped out the wins against other bubble teams.  They followed that up with a humbling loss in Toronto, before a gritty win in Winnipeg.

The lesson learned from this stretch is we've seen how the Flyers have to win games this year.  They don't have the firepower to outscore teams like last year; 4 and 5 goal performances will be rare.  Bryzgalov is playing excellent however, as he is tracking the puck very well, and really battling and recovering better.  The Flyers also are doing more to collapse around the net in ways they desperately needed to last year.

The Flyers can get some wins this year in this fashion, but it's all pretty fragile.  For one, this team is completely dependent on Bryzgalov (hard to believe we're saying that about Bryzgalov after last year, or the Flyers in general, well, ever).  Partially because Bryzgalov has been very good, and partially because the backup goalie situation is so lousy.

It's also fragile because of the youth up front.  Giroux is looking overwhelmed with Hartnell and Jagr out of the lineup.  Recently, Read, Voracek and Schenn have stepped up their play, but who knows how that will keep up.  It will be a struggle all season, but hopefully Hartsy and Mesz will be back relatively soon, which will help.

Speak of Jagr...

Jagr is one of many recently departed Flyers doing very well thus far.  Jagr has become a key piece on offense for Dallas, and is leading the team with 11 points in 13 games.  The Flyers are missing him this year more than I expected.  Also;

-Matt Carle is playing big minutes in TB (which shouldn't be surprising) and already has 2 goals.  The other key departure for the Flyers this year.

-JVR has 8 goals in 13 games, a pretty stark change from the 11 he scored in 43 for the Flyers last year.  Many of these have been of the tap-in variety, finishing off others' plays (he only has 2 assists), but there's nothing wrong with that.  He's playing well and with confidence, but there's no need for Flyers fans to panic about that trade at the moment.

-Similar to JVR, Jeff Carter has 6 goals (and only 1 assist) in 11 games for the offensively challenged Kings.

Put all this together, and you can see all the offense that has gone out the door from Philadelphia.  That kind of goal-hawking from JVR and Carter is certainly a missing ingredient from this year's Flyers roster.

But Don't Panic

The Flyers have obvious needs, which my man Bill Meltzer accurately describes and prioritizes; "1) a puck-moving defenseman who can play 20+ minutes per game, 2) a scoring winger who possesses both good size and a consistent willingness to work in the "greasy" areas of the ice (though I might go a little more towards high-end skill players who snipe, in the mold of Perry or Iginla mentioned below), 3) a backup goaltending upgrade in case of a long-term injury to Ilya Bryzgalov, 4) a fourth-line center who is strong on defensive zone face-offs." http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=49290#.UR0bGqWyD9l

Despite this, it DOES NOT make sense for the Flyers to go chasing down trades.  For one, they are not a contender this year, so trading more youth and picks is a bad idea.  The Flyers have very few high-end prospects, and are generally depleted of prospects outside the NHL from trading away so many picks under Holmgen.  Second, these are tough holes to fill, as evidenced by the Timonen contract signed last week.

Clearly the Flyers looked around and saw Timonen was their only option for a number 1 defensemen next year.  He is old, and isn't the defensemen he used to be, but the Flyers renewed him at a very high cap number (shockingly high at first glance) because they had no other choice.  After accepting that reality, my only regret is that they couldn't get Kimmo to resign for say $4.5m instead of 6.  $1.5m in cap space will make a difference if the Flyers pursue Iginla or Perry as free agents after this season...

Out of Sorts

0-3 last night, and 0-3 on the season.  Another pretty ugly loss last night.  The Flyers aren't getting killed or run out of the building in these losses, but they're sloppy and at times it feels futile.  Now some have turned and said "but the Flyers started 0-3 in the last lockout season, and ultimately went to the conference finals!"  The reality is that that Flyers team started 3-7-1, and after back to back 3-0 losses to Ottawa and Florida, two of the worst teams in the league at the time, Clarke traded Mark Recchi.  I doubt Holmgren has any similar tricks up his sleeve to acquire a #1 defensemen along with a player who would score 50 goals three years in a row.

What is the problem?  There are many;

-No chemistry amongst the forwards, and the chances they do get, there's no finish.  No one is shooting with confidence or showing any creativity, other than Giroux.

-Young players who played during the lockout look out of sorts.  Couturier has really struggled, and Read has been pretty invisible.  Schenn has some good moments, but not enough.

-The defense looks haggard.  Grossmann is really laboring, struggling with forecheckers, the puck, and notably getting outskated.  Timonen isn't doing much.  Schenn has been average, Mesz has been pretty good, and Coburn can only do so much himself.

-General disorganization.  Failed coverage on faceoffs has led to goals.  Failed coverage down low has led to goals.  Special teams have been terrible.  The Flyers have also been burned by bad changes.  All this in 3 games.

-Bad bounces.  It's hard to say how much is teams making their own luck, but the first period against the Devils was probably their best this season, yet they trailed 2-0 after it.  Against Buffalo, there were 3 questionable calls in the crease directly leading to goals or potential goals, and all three went in Buffalo's favor.

-Bad first periods.  The first 15 minutes against the Penguins were terrible, leading to a 2-0 hole.  Another slow start in the Buffalo game creating a 1-0 deficit, and another 2-0 hole last night.  Outscored 5-0 in the first period so far this season.


I'm not sure what the remedy is here, as Laviolette did the line shuffling prior to the New Jersey game  Maybe throw in Leighton and see if the team responds?  I think the most important thing right now is to focus on special teams, where they've been outscored 7-1 in just three games.  That is inexcusable.

Subban??

Okay, so another trade rumor post, mainly because they're fun to speculate about.  The Flyers had a lousy opening weekend, and generally look discombobulated, but I'll refrain from comment until they get another game or two in.

As for P.K. Subban, there may be an opportunity here.  Bob McKenzie reports that the sides are still nowhere close on the holdout RFA.  The Habs apparently are offering a shorter term at $2.75m.  No wonder talks are going nowhere.  Undoubtedly, Subban is looking for something in the ballpark of what other highly-rated young RFA defensemen got; Myers - 7x$5.5, Carlson - 6x$3.96, Hedman - 5x$4, Staal - 5x$3.975.  He'll demand at least 4 years and $4 million.

As for Subban's game, I think he's a very talented player.  I remember the first time I saw him play his rookie year against the Flyers, I didn't know who he was, and I thought to myself, "woah, who is that guy for Montreal!?"  Fast, aggressive, skilled, physical; a very exciting player.  He's been pretty productive in his short NHL career, but he has rubbed some the wrong way with disrespectful behavior, including a notable spat with Mike Richards.  With guys like this, you take the good with the bad.  If you believe that his attitude is an issue, that just lessens what you pay him (or for him), but shouldn't exclude him from consideration.

Even with Montreal getting nowhere on contract talks, he will be very difficult to pry away.  Quite frankly, the Flyers have very few assets to trade, and Montreal probably would insist on getting Schenn or Couturier.   The Flyers current roster needs Schenn, and I personally think Couturier is the Flyers best prospect since Lindros.  Similar to their pursuit of Weber, I'd continue to draw the line at including Schenn or Cooter in a trade.  After you remove those two guys, you're looking at an ad hoc package of high draft picks and prospects.  Would Montreal have any interest in Laughton of Gostisbehere?  They are the only 2 Flyers prospects of note, and even then they're not exactly hot properties.

The Flyers usually sniff around any time a talented player becomes available, and I would certainly see if an opportunistic deal could be made.  I think it's all a long shot, as Montreal doesn't really want to trade him and his contract demands are uncertain, but I think his abilities are exciting enough to earn a look.  He'd be a real shot in the arm to the Flyers defense corps, no doubt.

And We're Back...

Tomorrow, it's finally back to hockey.  It should be a pretty fun home opener against the Pens.  The Pens of course are coming off their first round loss to the Flyers last year, in which their contempt for the Flyers caused them to completely lose their nerve.  30 goals against in 6 games was the result.  Remarkably, this will be the Pens 8th straight game against the Flyers, with no other opponents in between.

But enough about the Pens.  The Flyers won't have any time to get in game shape, as its trial by fire with an incredibly busy schedule, kicking off with 5 games in 8 days.  Fortunately, there is a lot of consistency with last year's roster, and most player's on the roster have been playing in Europe or the minors.  However, with Briere out and Meszaros questionable, the exact lineup is still a work in progress.  It appears the Flyers will start the season with the following:

The big questions on my mind;

-That lineup is scary young down the middle.  At 25, Giroux is the old man.  Cooter, Laughton and Wellwood only have 136 career NHL games between the 3 of them!!  Things will look a little different once Briere comes back (with his 921 games played), but in some ways, he is the least reliable of all of them.

-Will Scott Laughton stick around?  He was hardly a prized draft pick, but he looks to be one of the few players from this year's draft to play in the NHL this year.  After he plays in 5 games, the Flyers must send him back to the juniors, or lose a year on his entry-level contract.  Due the condensed schedule, that is only 8 days.

-How much can be expected from Cooter and Schenner?  They put up solid numbers on a dreadful Phantoms team in the AHL.  That should be expected from top prospects, and basically they were the entire offense for the team.  Cooter is still only 19 however.  I think it's time for Schenn to live up to his billing from the last few years.  I recall that I thought he was the Flyers's best player in game 1 versus Pitt last year, until Asham ran him and slowed him down.

-Who will be the 6th defensemen?  Right now it's newly signed Kurtis Foster, who looked to be having a promising career until it was derailed by injuries over the last few seasons.  I wouldn't mind seeing the big man wind-up on the PP a few times though.  A total x-factor is the possibility of signing Redden.  He's been parked in the AHL the last 2 years due to his enormous contract, but the Rangers have now bought him out and he's free to sign anywhere, likely on a one year deal.  He's 35 now, and I'm not sure how much he has left, but I presume he could fit in on several teams' bottom pair.  I don't know how real the Flyers interest in him may be, but they sniff around everything and there's not much to lose with a one-year deal.  Either way we'll find out today.  If he does sign, he'll battle it out with Foster for the #6 spot, and Gervais will be the 8th defensemen.

-Can Simmonds match the pace of his career high in goals?  Can Hartnell match the pace of his career high in goals?  Can Read avoid the sophomore slump?  I'll say yes, probably slightly off, and yes.

-Is Bryzgalov focused and ready?  It's not unusual for big ticket signings to struggle in their first season in a new town.  No doubt, Bryz bungled it in many ways.  Still, I think he can turn it around and be a top goalie again.  He didn't impress as a third wheel in the KHL during the lockout, and it seems he was never really focused there honestly.  It won't all be smooth sailing, but I think he'll have a solid season.  If not, I'm not sure what the Flyers will do.  Lure Tim Thomas out of his sabbatical?

-Will Laviolette tighten things up defensively?  I wrote about this last year, and I was hardly the only one to point it out.  This year, it appears that Snider expects the team to tighten up on defense, and help Bryz more.  I don't know if they're going to do that, but I think it would be a good idea.


The Flyers are saddled in the toughest division and hockey.  The Rangers and Pens are probably the two biggest favorites in the East, and the Devils are coming off a trip to the finals.  Expectations for the Flyers won't be as high, and maybe that's a good thing.  Either way, it'll be interesting...

Flyers Offer Weber HUMONGOUS Deal

It is days like today that I treasure being a Flyers fan.  There's never a boring day, and nothing is out of the question.  For my money no team is more fun to follow despite no cup for 35 years, but that's probably a question for another day/blog.

As for the matter at hand, the Flyers have offered Shea Weber a 14 year, ~$110m contract.  This is the biggest contract in NHL history for a defensemen, and computes to a cap hit of ~$7.8 million.  Nashville will now have 7 days to match, or alternatively work out a trade with the Flyers.  If Nashville matches, all is said and done and Weber is guaranteed to be in Nashville next year.  If Nashville declines, Nashville will receive 4 first round picks from the Flyers.

With those hard facts out of the way, the real intrigue is how this plays out.  Upon some reflection, I believe this was ultimately the strongest play the Flyers could make to land Weber.

Weber has been something of a white whale for Flyers fans this offseason---a dominating defensemen who can comfortably fill the shoes of Chris Pronger.  I have previously speculated that the Flyers were not in the best position to land Weber, because Nashville will pull out all the stops to sign their franchise player, and the  Flyers have already traded away two key trading chips in JVR and Bobrovsky.  I have been among those believing "don't offer-sheet Weber because Nashville will match anything," but this was the best option available to the Flyers at the moment.  Because of the Flyers lack of other assets, they would not fare well in open trade bidding process, in my opinion.

By signing Weber to this offer sheet, the Flyers have shut out all other teams from the Weber hunt.  If Nashville matches, they can't trade him for one year, and he will likely be in Nashville for several years.  The Flyers now have exclusivity in trade dialogues with Nashville regarding Weber.  It also has to happen within the next 7 days, so the Flyers have accelerated the timeline.

Of course the simplest course of action is merely for Nashville to match, and then there's nothing to talk about.  All things being equal, I'm sure Nashville was prepared to offer Weber a long-term deal with a cap hit of ~$8m.  What gives Flyers fans hope here is their deal reportedly calls for $26m in the first year alone.  Can Nashville swallow that?  Mind you that Nashville's entire franchise is only worth $163m, and they only have $40m committed to the entire roster next year.  Nashville is required to spend $14m on SOMEBODY this offseason to get to the cap floor at $54m, but the way this deal is structured, their actual, IRL payroll this season would be at least $72m.  Whether or not they can handle $26m to Weber next season (and $56m over the next 3 years total) is basically a business decision.

To keep the conversation going, let's assume they can't, and earnestly talk trade with the Flyers.  Per the RFA offer sheet rules, the trade value is pegged at 4 first round picks.  This should be acceptable to the Flyers, considering they traded essentially 3 first round picks and a 3rd for Pronger a few years ago.  Now Pronger is one of the best defensemen of his generation, but he was about to turn 35, and his days as a Norris candidate were clearly behind him.  Weber is 26, entering his prime, and has been the Norris runner-up the last 2 seasons.

Nashville, however, will probably want something other than picks to show for the sudden departure of their franchise player.  What do the Flyers have to offer?  I would start with Voracek and Meszaros.  Mesz can play 20+ minutes a night for Nashville, and is likely the defensemen the Flyers would soonest trade with their sudden logjam of defensemen.  Voracek I like as a complimentary top 6 winger, though he's probably a 60-70 point player going forward.  Also, he is still not signed anyway.

Even assuming Nashville will take those two, there needs to be more.  First round picks are a good sweetener here.  The Flyers recent first round selection, Scott Laughton, could also be included.  The Flyers turned some heads picking this kid higher than most expected him to go, but he left a lot of observers impressed at the Flyers recently-concluded prospect camp.

Lastly, there is the possibility of trading Schenn and Couturier.  I really hate to think about this.  For me, Cooter is the best prospect the Flyers have had since Lindros.  His game is so complete, it's amazing, and it would really pain me to trade him for anyone.  Schenn is also a very promising player, who could break out big time this year.  Previously I would've said 'maybe' to trading Schenn for (and only for) Weber, but now Jagr and JVR are gone, and Luke Schenn is in.  This makes Schenn less likely to be traded away now.

I will stop here, rather than ramble on endlessly.  Overall, I think this maneuver gave the Flyers the best chance at landing Weber, but it's far from guaranteed Nashville lets him get away.  If I had to guess I feel like Nashville finds a way to keep him, but all bets are off.  The takeaway, however, is that by getting this offer sheet signed, the Flyers have promoted themselves from longshots on landing Weber, to having a very good shot at him as well as blocking potential rivals (mainly the Rangers) from acquiring him.

IF the Flyers were to trade away Voracek, Mesz, and picks/prospects, this is what Flyers fans are looking at:

It's nice getting that franchise defensemen, but for all the goals the Flyers scored last year, that forward group is THIN.  They really have no highly skilled winger to speak of, as Jagr, JVR and Voracek were ALL of their skill wingers last season.  At least there is still enough cap space to add a decent forward or two.