New Years Resolution; Fix the Penalty Kill

There are a few ways to judge the Flyers.  One, you could (correctly) say the Flyers defense simply isn't talented enough, so they're not a very good team.  Two, you could make a comparative analysis against last season, and see what that tells you.  Personally, I'm not a big fan of looking at paper and judging teams in the abstract, so I prefer approach two.

Last year, after settling in to Berube hockey, the Flyers were a solid playoff team (albeit by weak Eastern Conference standards).  This year, the Flyers have hit some pretty low depths in the standings.  What has really changed?  The roster is significantly the same, other than Hartnell for Umberger, and the loss of Timonen.  How much can those two events explain?

First, it has to be said that Umberger has been completely anonymous.  Hartnell, with all his warts, is clearly a superior player right now.  That said, Hartnell's absence hasn't seriously hurt the Flyers.  He left vacancies on the top line and top PP unit, but both units are doing just fine without him.  Raffl is currently complementing the astounding play of Voracek and Giroux, and while Schemn hasn't quite mastered the high-slot quick one-timer snapshot, the power play is operating at the same efficiency as last year.

What about Timonen?  He has been a centerpiece of the Flyers defense for several seasons.  Well, first it needs to be pointed out that he was basically a special teams player last season.  Timonen was last among among all Flyers defenseman in even-strength ice time last season.  As for his vacancy on the top PP unit, Streit is a talented PP quarterback, and the power play has suffered no drop off as mentioned above.  The penalty kill however is a different story.

The following graphic is pretty instructive.  The penalty kill is almost single-handedly killing the Flyers this season.

As the graph shows, the power play is the same, and the Flyers are actually slightly improved at 5v5.  There are slight drop-offs at the moment for shot differential and save percentage, although all those power play goals against could account for the drop in save percentage.

 You can also break up the Flyers performance down to a per-game basis.  The difference is dramatic, as the pie charts below show.

(Note that in both charts, "2" means 2 or more goals allowed in a game)

It also bears pointing  that the Flyers are finding themselves shorthanded less often this season than last season, so this increased number of PP goals against is purely on the rate of the penalty kill. The only remaining question is how much does the disastrous penalty kill account for the Flyers disappointing record this season.

It turns out that poor penalty kill performance may count for a lot, but not quite all of the Flyers weakened record.   This chart shows how many points the Flyers earning per sorted by PP goals against.

Even if you held constant penalty kill performance to last season, the Flyers are still not earning quite as many points a game as last season.  I can't say right now what is causing that last bit of performance difference, but I would go so far to say that most of the Flyers drop off this year is attributable simply to what is happening when the Flyers are shorthanded.

What's Working, What Isn't

One month into the season, some truths around this year's team are settling in.

-FTW.  Voracek is playing amazing.  Clearly the best performer on the team right now.  I attended the LA Kings game last week, and he was easily the best player on the ice for either team IMO.  With 18 points in 12 games, only Crosby has more points.  He's still not much of a shooter in my opinion, but he is a top-notch puck carrier and his 10-pound weight loss in the offseason has worked out really well, noticeably increasing his quickness and stamina.

-FAIL.  The team has no Hartnell replacement on the top line or top PP-unit.  Raffl has done pretty well playing with Voracek and Giroux, tying Simmonds for the team lead in goals largely with his skating and by popping up in good spots on both ends of the ice.  Still, he's just a complementary player, and he doesn't play on the PP either.  And now he's out for 6 weeks as ANOTHER Flyers gets injured after being struck with a shot in the foot.  The man the Flyers received for Hartnell, R.J. Umberger, is appearing in games according to the box scores, but I cannot verify that fact after watching the games.

-FTW.  PPs against are way down.  The Flyers are currently in 6th in the league in times shorthanded.  They were 29th last year, and dead last the two years before that.

-FAIL.  The PP is down, and their failure to convert chances at key junctures in games has cost them points in the standings.  Part of that is Hartnell down, and part of the is Streit replacing Timonen.  Streit is a good PP player, but his style is much different.  Streit loves to shoot (and has a much better shot that Timonen), whereas Timonen was a manager back there.  Streit's style may lead to a little more streakiness in results if the bounces don't go your way when you fire it in there.  Additionally, when Lecavalier returned from injury he was immediately put into the Hartnell high slot spot, but by the end of the game Schenn was reinserted there.  I guess Schenn will get an extended opportunity on the ice with top talent there, even if he lost the chance to play LW with Giroux and Voracek at even strength.  Let's see what you can do, young man.

-FTW.  Michael Del Zotto's role is increasing, often leading the team in ice time.  He holds onto the puck longer than any other defensemen on the roster, which was a trait this defensive group was generally lacking.

-FAIL.  Ghost was gone in a flash.  I don't blame the team, but I was hoping to see a few flashes from Ghost before he was sent back down.  I did like what I saw from Colaiacovo in his first game, reading the game well and managing the puck.  It will be interesting to see how a defense corps prominently featuring multiple guys whose NHL career was on the fringes (Colaiacovo, Del Zotto, Schultz) does over the next few weeks while MacDonald and Coburn recover.

Save the Date

Apparently June 23rd is a big day for the Flyers.  In 2011, Carter and Richards were shipped out on June 23rd.  In 2012, JVR was traded on June 23rd.  This year, the Flyers conducted some other noteworthy business.

Hartnell for Umberger
In a move basically no one saw coming, the Flyers traded Scott Hartnell for RJ Umberger and a 4th round pick.  Everyone knew Umberger wanted out from Columbus, but Hartnell leaving Philly is a surprise.  The purposes of the trade are not obvious, but there are a few things to take away.

One, this appears to be Flyers re-tailoring their rosters for Hextall-Berube hockey.  Most would say Hartnell is the better player, but Hartnell is a clumsy player.  Stylistically, Umberger is a better skater and much better in possession.  While not a young speedster, he is closer to Berube's "play faster-think faster" mantra.

Two, the Flyers only get minor, delayed cap relief.  Hextall said he just let it be known he was looking for cap relief, and this trade just kind of came up.  Truthfully, Umberger's and Hartnell's cap hits are nearly identical ($4.750m v $4.6m), although Umberger's contract has two fewer years left on it.  Hextall is looking ahead to two seasons from now when Voracek will be a UFA, and Couturier and Schenn will be RFAs.  Umberger will still have one more left on his contract at that point, however.

The last point is that Umberger's has been declining.  His first three years in Columbus were reliably productive, but his last three seasons have been poor.  He played 74 games last season, albeit through a few tough injuries that may have slowed him down.  He and Hartnell are the same age, and it will be interested to see where each of this guys are physically in 2 years.

Umberger will be a versatile forward for the Flyers who may help a bit in puck possession, but he does not improve the team in any significant way.  Hartnell's departure also opens a hole on the top PP unit.

Schenn signed
On the same day, the Flyers also did something far more predictable.  Completing Hextall's self described #1 offseason priority, he signed Brayden Schenn.

It's a relatively short, cheap, "bridge contract" than many players his age receive.  It provides the team with an affordable young talent, while leaving the player the opportunity to earn a significant raise with his next contract (ask PK Subban about that one).

With Hartnell gone, Schenn might see time on left wing of the top line.  Either way, it's time for Schenn to show everyone what's he got.  At one time he projected as a prospective number 1 NHL center, but now there is some question if he will even be a good #2.  I can't say I see visual evidence that he is on the cusp of a breakout, but the development of a young player isn't linear either.

He plays a different style than Couturier, but the players will always be compared as young centers and potential future pillars of the team, acquired at the same day (June 23!).  I think it's safe to say Schenn's stock in the organization has dropped below Couturier at this time, but now he's got two years raise his stock back up.

What's Hot, What's Not

Today I'm going to pretend I'm a 90s supermarket tabloid, and quickly cover many subjects in a peurile hot list.

What's Hot:  Jake Voracek.  Everyone has taken note of his recent points explosion and NHL player of the week award, though he's been the Flyers best player for a few weeks now.  His season reminds me of Hartnell last year; started out pretty rough (0 goals and 2 assists in his first 7 games) and fans called him out before having a torrid stretch for a few games.  Hartnell played that out into a full season of excellence scoring at the rate of a goal every other game the rest of the season.  Similarly, Voracek showed up for the season overweight, and started out with only 3 points in 8 games, but has 18 points in 13 games since.  Voracek has always been a hardworker on the ice during games, but I think there was some perception in Columbus that his off-ice habits weren't the best.  Either way, hopefully this is a true career turning point and Voracek becomes a point a game player, which I wasn't sure would ever happen.

What's Not:  Ilya Bryzgalov.  He started out great, but has been slowly but steadily slipping.  He's played an absurd amount of games, and his game is showing cracks.  He's fighting in there, but he's increasingly sloppy in angles and is leaking stoppable goals.  Too bad the Flyers back-ups don't offer much relief.

What's Hot:  The Flyers first PP unit.  This unit is moving the puck with confidence and scoring goals.  When the Flyers win, it's usually because this unit has come up with key goals.

What's Not:  The Flyers second PP unit.  These guys are still pretty hopeless.

What's Hot:  Brayden Schenn.  I won't say he's been tearing it up with irresistible play, but his 15 points in 14 February games almost matches his 18 for the entirety of last season.  That's progress.

What's Not:  Trading for veterans or rentals.  I've said it before and I'll say it again, the Flyers this year are not a great team, and they are not a player away from being a cup contender.  This doesn't rule out all trades, but trading youth and picks for veteran rentals is not wise.  Holmgren, apparently, can't help himself from trading away draft picks, and he re-acquired Simon Gagne yesterday for a 4th round pick (a 3rd rounder if Flyers make the playoffs, which I'm sure Holmgren is planning to do).  Mind you, Gagne is a pretty old and fragile 33, only playing 34 games for the Kings last year and has been a healthy scratch their last 4 games.  He's still got speed and smarts, but he doesn't go to scoring areas anymore.  I suspect the Flyers will put him on the 2nd PP unit mentioned above and let him try to snipe a few though.


The trade winds are blowing around the Flyers for sure.  I just hope Homer doesn't lose his head and trade for a rental.  If it's a restructuring trade for a young defensemen, I would give up some quality as it suits both long and short term needs.  If it's trading for an aging UFA to-be to squeeze a little more out of this year's squad, that is misguided.  Briere rumors have started, and that could make sense as he's not been a big regular season performer for the Flyers, but he has been absolutely money in the playoffs, and he's only owed $5 million in real dollars over the next two seasons.  That should interest other teams.  Trading Couturier on the hand (who I'm sure other teams will ask for) will give me shit-fits, although I'll allow an exception if it's for a young defensemen who projects as a top pair guy.

Until then, look for the Flyers to scrape out wins on the backs of Voracek, their PP and Bryzgalov.  If any one of those factors takes the night off, it's probably not going to be a good night for the Flyers.

And We're Back...

Tomorrow, it's finally back to hockey.  It should be a pretty fun home opener against the Pens.  The Pens of course are coming off their first round loss to the Flyers last year, in which their contempt for the Flyers caused them to completely lose their nerve.  30 goals against in 6 games was the result.  Remarkably, this will be the Pens 8th straight game against the Flyers, with no other opponents in between.

But enough about the Pens.  The Flyers won't have any time to get in game shape, as its trial by fire with an incredibly busy schedule, kicking off with 5 games in 8 days.  Fortunately, there is a lot of consistency with last year's roster, and most player's on the roster have been playing in Europe or the minors.  However, with Briere out and Meszaros questionable, the exact lineup is still a work in progress.  It appears the Flyers will start the season with the following:

The big questions on my mind;

-That lineup is scary young down the middle.  At 25, Giroux is the old man.  Cooter, Laughton and Wellwood only have 136 career NHL games between the 3 of them!!  Things will look a little different once Briere comes back (with his 921 games played), but in some ways, he is the least reliable of all of them.

-Will Scott Laughton stick around?  He was hardly a prized draft pick, but he looks to be one of the few players from this year's draft to play in the NHL this year.  After he plays in 5 games, the Flyers must send him back to the juniors, or lose a year on his entry-level contract.  Due the condensed schedule, that is only 8 days.

-How much can be expected from Cooter and Schenner?  They put up solid numbers on a dreadful Phantoms team in the AHL.  That should be expected from top prospects, and basically they were the entire offense for the team.  Cooter is still only 19 however.  I think it's time for Schenn to live up to his billing from the last few years.  I recall that I thought he was the Flyers's best player in game 1 versus Pitt last year, until Asham ran him and slowed him down.

-Who will be the 6th defensemen?  Right now it's newly signed Kurtis Foster, who looked to be having a promising career until it was derailed by injuries over the last few seasons.  I wouldn't mind seeing the big man wind-up on the PP a few times though.  A total x-factor is the possibility of signing Redden.  He's been parked in the AHL the last 2 years due to his enormous contract, but the Rangers have now bought him out and he's free to sign anywhere, likely on a one year deal.  He's 35 now, and I'm not sure how much he has left, but I presume he could fit in on several teams' bottom pair.  I don't know how real the Flyers interest in him may be, but they sniff around everything and there's not much to lose with a one-year deal.  Either way we'll find out today.  If he does sign, he'll battle it out with Foster for the #6 spot, and Gervais will be the 8th defensemen.

-Can Simmonds match the pace of his career high in goals?  Can Hartnell match the pace of his career high in goals?  Can Read avoid the sophomore slump?  I'll say yes, probably slightly off, and yes.

-Is Bryzgalov focused and ready?  It's not unusual for big ticket signings to struggle in their first season in a new town.  No doubt, Bryz bungled it in many ways.  Still, I think he can turn it around and be a top goalie again.  He didn't impress as a third wheel in the KHL during the lockout, and it seems he was never really focused there honestly.  It won't all be smooth sailing, but I think he'll have a solid season.  If not, I'm not sure what the Flyers will do.  Lure Tim Thomas out of his sabbatical?

-Will Laviolette tighten things up defensively?  I wrote about this last year, and I was hardly the only one to point it out.  This year, it appears that Snider expects the team to tighten up on defense, and help Bryz more.  I don't know if they're going to do that, but I think it would be a good idea.


The Flyers are saddled in the toughest division and hockey.  The Rangers and Pens are probably the two biggest favorites in the East, and the Devils are coming off a trip to the finals.  Expectations for the Flyers won't be as high, and maybe that's a good thing.  Either way, it'll be interesting...

Season Review

All playoff exits feel disappointing.  Through the ups and downs, fans always convince themselves that their team can win any series.  The Flyers flame-out was sudden, but in the long view, it makes a little more sense.

At no point this season did I think the Flyers were really primed for a serious cup run.  They were too young up front, having traded away their core forwards.  Then things started going pretty well, but Pronger went down.  Without Pronger, I thought a long playoff run was precluded.

The Flyers defensive and goaltending struggles reinforced that perception, until March shutouts made me begin to think I could be wrong.  The defense showed hope, and they could score whenever they needed to.  Eventually however, the gas tank ran dry and ingrained problems caught up to them.

It was a memorable and exciting season, and I could not label this team as underachievers.  That's pretty much all you can ask for as a fan.

PLAYER REVIEWS

Forwards:
-Giroux.  The burden fell to him to step up with Carter and Richards gone, and he responded with an MVP caliber season that Richards or Carter never produced.

-Briere.  A very poor regular season, largely saved by 8 playoff goals.  His overall game never really fired on all cylinders though, even in the playoffs.

-Voracek.  His 49 points is not all that impressive, but he was a valuable player for the Flyers, and I certainly didn't see anything like conditioning or effort issues that his old CBJ coach criticized him for on the way out.  He may never break 25 goals or 65 points, but I could see him being a winger on a quality top line.

-Hartnell.  A quiet playoffs shouldn't dilute a career year, and I think he was playing hurt anyway.  Consistently energetic, physical, and showed a finishing touch I didn't think he had.  All this after a pre-season lost to health concerns and a terrible start.

-Jagr.  54 points in 73 games, veteran leadership, and the self-proclaimed "most enjoyable year" of his career.  That qualifies as a success.  Jagr did have some nagging groin issues, and his energy level fluctuated throughout the year, so it remains to be seen if he will be back.

-Schenn.  18 points in 54 games is an unimpressive line, but he improved as the season wore on, and I'd go so far as to say he was the Flyers' best player in game 1 of the Pittsburgh series.  I expect  him to take the next step in his career next year.

-Read.  He turned out to be one of the best rookies in the league.  24 goals, played everywhere on the front line, and in all situations.  Pretty much ideal.

-Simmonds.  Almost doubled his career high in goals, largely due to 11 PP goals.  He looks to be a streaky scorer going forward, as he battles and puts himself in good positions but doesn't have very soft hands, his physical initiative will make him a fan favorite.

-Talbot.  Gave the Flyers everything they could hope for.  A lunchpail player and team guy, he went from 8 goals last season with Pittsburgh to 19 this year, and he and Giroux were lethal shorthanded in the playoffs.

-Couturier.  Surpassed all expectations this season, with 13 goals and logged big minutes in the playoffs.  Remarkable for an 18 year old, I could not identify any clear deficiencies in his game.  What a draft day steal, he could be a key player for the Flyers for a long time.

-Wellwood.  Nothing spectacular, but a young, speedy player that should be an asset for bottom lines and depth next year.

-Rinaldo.  Did all that could be asked of him.  Not a high skill guy, he successfully brought a lot of energy and spark to the Flyers.  He will have to continue to work on his discipline, though in his defense, he is clearly targeted by the officials and is on the short end of a lot of marginal calls.

-JVR.  I think JVR had a very disappointing season.  Yes, he had injuries, and his point production was decent before all the injuries.  Still, I wrote that his early stat line flattered his play even before all the injuries, and there's no escaping the reality of the 11g, 13a, 43gp for a player who was supposed to score 30+ goals this year.  He was very good in game 1 against NJ, but did little else in that series.

-Shelley.  Yes, he is still on this team.

Defense:
-Timonen.  Another year of wear and tear on Timonen's body, he still was able to be the Flyers top defensemen this year.  Injuries severely limited him in the playoffs.

-Meszaros.  Was inconsistent all year, never finding the form he had most of last season.  Then his season was cut short by an injury.  Maybe next year will be a bounce back season.

-Coburn.  Unremarkable regular season, but logged huge minutes in the playoffs.

-Grossmann.  The strong, defense-first, shot-blocking defenseman the team needed.  He has bad knees though, so let's hope they hold up.

-Carle.  The team's de facto number 1 defensemen this year, covering a lot of territory and eating minutes.  A very good chance that his time as a Flyers is over, however.

-Kubina.  He could not provide the reliable veteran presence the team was looking for---too old and slow, and picked up some injuries too.  Little chance of him returning.

-Pronger.  His season never really started, and his career may be over.  It's a shame his time with the Flyers was so short-lived.

-Gustafsson.  He really made some nice strides this season, though he could struggle at times.  Skilled and smart, but undersized.  It will be interesting to see what he can do next year in extended time.

-Bourdon.  Another pleasant surprise, as his career seemed to have stalled in the minors.  Looks like he might have an NHL future yet.

-Lilja.  Seldom used in the regular season, played decently in the playoffs.  Too old and slow to play a significant role.

Goalies:
-Bryzgalov.  Things did not go as planned, though he was amazing in March.  Too inconsistent and gaffe prone, but on and off the ice.  Seemingly has some growing up to do, though a full season in Philly under his belt will help.  Expectations will remain high with his 9 year contract.  I am optimistic.

-Bobrovsky.   Started the season strong, but on the whole did not take the next step in his career this year.  Now heading into the last year of his contract with the Flyers.

Devils Game 4 Review

Well, it was fun while it lasted.  The Flyers may not be officially eliminated, but it would take a miracle.  3-1 comebacks are quite rare, and the Devils dominated game 2 and 4.  It's very hard to envision the Flyers mounting any comeback of consequence.  Maybe I'll give them a 1-in-3 chance of winning game 5, mainly because I have tickets to the game and I don't want to feel like I wasted my money.

The Devils have completely swarmed the Flyers.  Game 1 started off this way, but everyone wrote it off due the Devils being sharp and the Flyers waking up from the week-long layoff.  Instead, that trend has accelerated.

I feel like there's a "chicken and the egg" scenario at play.  The Devils forecheck has overwhelmed the Flyers, and now they look confused and are being completely outskated.  Which came first?  The overwhelming forecheck making the Flyers look slow, or the Flyers simply didn't have jump which allowed the Devils to forecheck so effectively?

I think it's probably the tactics.  The Flyers forwards try to leave the zone so quickly, as they have all year, but the Devils have successfully pressured the Flyers defensemen.  Without the time or ability to find the forwards, the defensemen keep playing the puck to empty space, and the Devils get there first.

At the same time, I don't discount the Flyers mental let-down from beating Pittsburgh.  They put so much energy and passion into this series, it was like they couldn't get up for this series mentally.  The situation was ripe for a letdown, and the Flyers fan base was certainly lulled into a false sense of security--"we killed the mighty Pens, so we'll crush the Devils easily."  Admittedly, I didn't think a letdown would become a total disintegration like we are seeing though.

The Flyers look confused and tentative, and Laviolette probably does not have some magic elixir up his sleeve.  The Devils might put them out of their misery pretty quick.


Notes:
-An up and down night for Giroux. He scored a nice shorthanded goal, allaying my fears that the rumors of his bad groin would prevent him from bursts of speed.  After scoring however, he was more interested in barking at the ref than anything else.  It was a bad sign, indicating his emotions were getting away from him.

Later, after the officials blew a call on Brodeur for playing the puck outside the trapezoid, Giroux again assailed the officials, then took out his frustration with a dirty check to Zubrus's head.  This was pretty much the type of headshot for which I roasted Malkin and Neal.  Late, opportunistic headhunting.  If it was my NHL, Giroux would be suspended.  As it is, given that Giroux didn't make an egregiously illegal hit by leaving his feet or throwing an elbow, has no prior history, and Zubrus wasn't hurt, I suspect all we'll see is a fine.

-Speaking of Brodeur, his special treatment from the refs continues.  The interference call on Hartnell was blatantly wrong, as Hartnell was clearly checked into him, and at mild contact Brodeur wildly kicked his legs and threw his arms around.  He also dodged a penalty for handling the puck.  That's 3 games in a row where Brodeur has drawn a penalty on the Flyers when there simply wasn't much (or anything at all) there.  [JVR called for slashing in Game 2 when going for a loose puck, Schenn makes slight skate-to-skate contact and Broduer flops in game 3].

-The Flyers' lines are all mixed up.  Couturier played, but barely.  This broke up his checking line with Wellwood and Talbot, so Wellwood also barely played.  I do support Laviolette's decision to break up the Jagr-Giroux-Hartnell.  Whether it's injuries or whatever, their not playing well individually or collectively.

-Regarding Bryzgalov, anyone who tries to pin this debacle on the goaltending is an idiot.  The Flyers were dominated in games 2 and 4, but the game was close to the end because of Bryzgalov.  I don't like how he threw up his hands after the Devils' 3rd goal last night though, even if it was shockingly bad coverage.  For once the Flyers can reflect on their playoff run and don't need to ask themselves how they were sabotaged by goaltending.

Midseason Player Reviews

I don't like rating players by grades, and there's no use denying every player faces different expectations and different roles.  I'm going to simply assume some degree of subjective expectations and rate players with a stock-rating flavor.

Outperform
-Claude Giroux.  No brainer here.  Last season he looked like a promising young center, but was arguably the 4th most visible center on the team.  With Richards and Carter traded to make room for a goalie, Giroux faced a lot of pressure to be the offensive lynchpin.  He has responded with an MVP caliber season.

-Jaromir Jagr.  Sticking with Giroux's line, no one was sure how Jagr would perform after three season out of the NHL.  50 points?  60 points?  He still couldn't do a point a game, could he?  Apparently yes.  After a slow start, he found his legs and has looked fantastic, and is a key offensive player for the Flyers.  Nagging injuries are the only thing slowing him down now.

-Scott Hartnell.  And now to complete the Giroux line!  Hartnell got off to a very rocky start, missing preseason time due to medical tests, and his place in the lineup was very much at risk with 2 points in 7 games and Simmonds on the top PP unit.  Placing him with Jagr and Giroux has been magic, as every player has looked better since this trio was complete.  Hartnell has 35 points in 34 games since then.

-Matt Read.  On pace for 25+ goals, and an offensive factor every night.  What more could the Flyers want from him?

-Jake Voracek.  His pace of ~50 points isn't going to turn many heads, and is line with his career averages, however I think he is playing better than that.  Didn't start off great, but he is up on his skates attacking the defense every night.  It's not a coincidence that the Flyers go on win streaks when he is playing his best.  Early in the season I talked about Jagr replacing Leino's offensive contribution, but it's actually been Voracek carrying the puck, making plays, contributing what the Flyers would've hoped for from Leino.

-Kimmo Timonen.  He has played big minutes and piled up the points, and looks to produce at a rate not seen since his best years in Nashville.

-Max Talbot.  Has played reliably all over the lineup, and at midseason is already near career highs in goal scoring and points.

-Sean Couturier.  I didn't listen to scouts early this year when they nearly unanimously predicted Cooter would make the big team.  I looked at the roster and though, nah.  Instead, Cooter has simply made it impossible to take him out of the lineup, playing like a veteran.

-Harry Zolneirczyk.  Despite being sent down early in the season, he has come back and looked great on the 4th line--energetic with occasional scoring.  Thumbs up, though to maintain a role like this in the NHL he will have to have an increased role on the PK.

-Zac Rinaldo.  I was pretty skeptical of this wild man coming into the season.  Although he seems targeted by officials, he has general kept it under control, potted a goal here or there, and aggressively sought contact on the ice. 

-Marc-Andre Bourdon.  His ascent to the NHL hasn't really gone like many in the organization may have hoped, but he has played within himself and looked like he belongs in the NHL.

Market Perform
-Danny Briere.  A pretty ho-hum regular season for Briere.  He's been there for some key goals, but hasn't looked consistently dangerous and is on pace for his lowest point totals for a full season as a Flyer (when healthy).  I am giving him somewhat of a pass due to raising his game in the playoffs the last two years, and the expectation that he will do it again.

-Matt Carle.  Carle continues to hum along, playing big minutes and getting decent point totals.  I still say he has the worst shot on the team though, so there's always that to infuriate Flyers fans when he gets so many chances with skating and awareness on the ice. 

-Wayne Simmonds.  Simmonds teased Flyers fans early this year and preseason with some offensive skill, however Flyer fans have seen some stone hands since then.  Simmonds is always battling out there, but his offense probably will never be more than occasional and streaky.

-Braydon Coburn.  Quiet but largely steady from Braydon.

-Sergei Bobrovsky.  Bob continues to progress nicely, and currently sports a much better stat line than Bryzgalov.  He probably deserves a chance to get some starts and be given a chance to run with it.

-Andreas Lilja.  Doing exactly what was expected; old and slow, occasionally physical defensemen.

Underperform
-Brayden Schenn.  I don't like putting him here, as when I see him play I see a skilled and intelligent player, and injuries never really gave him a chance.  Still, on January 1, there he was with 0 points and -7 in 8 games.  Hopefully, the second half will treat him better (and the signs are already good).

-James Van Riemsdyk.  Looking at a low 40s point season, and is not visible many nights.  This is even when I commented earlier this season that his points line flatters his play.  He was supposed to progress more than this by this point.

-Andrej Meszaros. The team's best defensemen last year, he struggled early.  His play has improved, but his overall body of work is not what Flyers fans were hoping for.

-Ilya Bryzgalov.  If you've read this blog, or even followed the Flyers at all, do I need to say anything?  Not playing like the top goalie the Flyers signed him to be.  He still can figure it out though.

-Jody Shelley.  Yes, he is still on this team.

No Rating
Chris Pronger, Erik Gustafsson

One Month Down

October is over, and the Flyers' season is approximately 4 weeks old.  Or, as Sean Avery might measure it, one menstrual cycle is complete.  Either way, a good time to stop and see where the Flyers are.

Among the themes to which I've already commented;
-The Flyers sit at 6-4-1, and hopefully have righted the ship with a solid win over Carolina.  Again, this is a decent enough start for a team with so many new faces.

-Since my post saying don't worry about Bryzgalov, he hit rock bottom against Winnipeg, but played a solid game against Carolina.  I think he'll be fine, and that he's a quality goaltender--one month in Philly won't kill him.  My own evaluation of him was that he was becoming too passive and slow, even if it's his game to be a passive shot blocker.  He needed to be a little more active, particularly on recovering from shots.  Goalie coach Reese also said he thought Bryz was distracted, and in terrible news for the local sports media, the Flyers are muzzling his pre-game interactions with the press.  All of this will sort itself out, and falls under the general settling in process.

-Since my post saying be worried about Hartnell, Laviolette "promoted" him to the top line with Giroux and Jagr, and it has worked unbelievably.  Not just for Hartnell, but for the whole line.  Laviolette took some heat for disrupting winning chemistry when Schenn was called, though in my opinion none of the Flyers lines were exactly clicking 5-on-5.  Even with Giroux racking up goals, 5-on-5 production from he and Jagr (which is how you should judge how well a line is playing) was very poor.  A clear illustration;

5-on-5 stats in 6 games of JVR-Giroux-Jagr
JVR - 1g, 1a, -1
Giroux - 2g, 1a, -1
Jagr - 0g, 0a, even

Compare that to the numbers since Laviolette juggled the lines;

5-on-5 stats in 5 games of Hartnell-Giroux-Jagr
Hartnell - 3g, 7a, +4
Giroux - 1g, 4a, +2
Jagr - 4g, 2a, +3 

Night and day.  Either way, Hartnell has reclaimed his role on this team and will stick with Giroux and Jagr for the foreseeable future.  Also, so much for Jagr's lack of goals that some people were whispering about....

-Schenn is injured again.  Bummer.

Team Stats

Goals - 3.73/game (2nd in NHL)
Goals against - 3.27/g (28th)
Faceoffs - 46.4% (29th)
Power play - 22.2 % (6th)
Penalty kill - 81.5% (18th)  (the Flyers have also been shorthanded 34 times, the 2nd most of any team in the league)
Shots For - 32.8/g (6th)
Shots Against - 26.3 (2nd)

Other player evaluations;
-Voracek is improving, but still not terribly effective.  At least he's up on his skates and is getting chances.

-JVR is also improving, but is not looking anything like the player on a tear last spring.  His play will have to improve from its current form for him to hit the 30+ goals target I was hoping for.

-I'm eager to see what Gustafsson can do in an extended audition.

-Timonen is looking healthier and stronger than last spring.

-After his brush with a very serious injury, Chris Pronger is still a wiseass.

-Couturier looks to be staying for the duration, though honestly I'm a little concerned about him being parked on the 4th line, getting very few even strength minutes.  His long term outlook remains very strong though.

-Rinaldo has made a strong case to hold a roster spot.  He won't play many minutes, but the guy is instant energy that appears to spark his teammates.

-Simmonds has some stone hands going, but he is always battling and some goals could come very soon on the PP.

-If Matt Read can keep playing with jump he will be a valuable winger for this team.

9-8

It was a remarkable game.  17 goals, 3 goalie changes, each team with a 5 goal run.  Highlights:



As remarkable as it was though, it defies most comment.  The Flyers deserve heavy criticism for the way they rapidly turned a 1-0 lead into a 5-1 hole, but pretty much from that point it was pandemonium out there.  Fundamentals and discipline went out the window and there's no much reason to dwell on what happened in the 2nd and 3rd period.

The bigger story is Bryzgalov's post game comments:



The conventional wisdom is that you never want to hear any player, let alone the goalie who teammates must trust, to say he has no confidence in himself.  The "correct" answer he was supposed to give is that he was embarrassed by his play, but will work hard to figure things and be better the next game.


Apparently that's not Bryzgalov's way.  It's been a really bad week for him, and this game is the new low.  I wouldn't get caught up on what he says; he's pretty aloof and will deal with it in his own way.  It WILL be a problem if his play doesn't start to improve though.  He can say what he want as long as his play improves, but if his play continues to decline people will jump on these comments and say his attitude is hurting him.

The good news that can be taken away from last night's game is that they had two effective lines.  Hartnell has Giroux and Jagr creating more 5-on-5 pressure, and JVR on the wing made Briere look much more dangerous.

The bad news is that for the second consecutive game the Flyers took a 1-0 lead, then capitulated. 

With all the new faces on the team an adjustment period should've been expected.  The preseason and first few games went so well, however, that expectations for this team rapidly changed.  5-4-1 in October for a team with so much turnover is not such a bad thing, but the team needs to get straightened out quick before 5-4 becomes 5-10, which would be a very bad thing.

Despair!

It was going to happen sooner or later.  An ugly loss that will allow some Flyers fans to do what they do best; carry on about how the team is a wreck.

In a nutshell, last night the Caps came out with more jump than the Flyers.  The Flyers were able to scramble on defense enough to keep the Caps off the board and took the lead.  Things looked good as the first period was wrapping up, until Hartnell had a terrible unforced giveaway, and the ensuing shot deflected off Coburn's stick and in.  Even worse, with 11 seconds left in the period, Giroux got beat behind the net and Backstrom carried it out unchallenged, getting it over to Ovechkin for a slam dunk.

The Flyers played well in the second period, but couldn't score.  The game could've then gone either way in the 3rd, but the Caps scored a fluke goal as a harmless shot again deflected off a defensemen's stick.  The Flyers immediately took a lazy penalty, Ovechkin scored on a one-timer (which deflected again), and it was pretty much over.


Things to be worried about after a loss like this:
-The Flyers tendency to give up quick, back-to-back goals, which plagued them last season.  The Caps did all of their scoring last night in 70 second and 2.5 minute stretches respectively.

-Unnecessary penalties.  High sticks, offensive zone penalties, leaving the Flyers shorthanded for no good reason, and all too often.

-Hartnell on the outs?  Hartnell's ice time is way down this year, and he had a rough game last night.  With Schenn getting called up, one of Schenn, Hartnell, or Couturier will be playing on the 4th line.  I'm okay with "Cooter" down there because he gets so much PK time, but I'd be nervous if I were Hartnell.

-Briere's line not doing anything.  There is a noticeable lack of chances being created by Briere's line this year, though last night Read took Voracek's place there and played pretty well on an individual level.  No chemistry happening with Briere and his linemates though.


Things not to be worried about;
-Bryzgalov.  5 goals looks ugly, and his stats are declining, but he's given up an inordinate number of deflected goals this year, and I'd be hard pressed to come up with examples of soft goals he's given up.  His rebound control has also been very good.

-Schenn's -3 debut.  Schenn happened to be on the ice for Hartnell's giveaway, and the backbreaking third goal which was the flukiest one.  Schenn looks pretty smooth with the puck, and threw a few nice checks last game.

-Jagr still scoreless.  Jagr does look a little fatigued, but he's still playing well along the boards and has 4 points in 6 games.

The Most Interesting Offseason in the World

The free agent frenzy is quieting down now, and you can take stock of most things.

The big point overall is that UFAs this year made a killing.  Players were getting 30% more than a comparable player would've gotten 2 years ago.  I think it's mostly due the to fact that it was a generally weak free agent group coming in a year where the salary cap increased more than expected.  And then you have a team like Florida spending money like a drunken sailor in a whorehouse on decent but unspectacular players simply to get to the cap floor that compounded the perverted market.

For the Flyers, the Extreme Makeover continues.  Out with the Canadian golden boys, in with puck possession eastern europeans, a Russian goalie, and a black guy.  Despite a bunch of rumors of something bigger like Brad Richards, Stamkos, or a big trade, the Flyers mostly stuck to the expected game plan. Mostly.

The most "predictable" move was adding a 3rd/4th line character guy.  The Flyers needed some experience in that area, and the team has commented that they need a "new Laperriere" to provide leadership and character in that role.  Max Talbot seems to fit that bill, the only surprise being that he comes from the Penguins.

Speaking of the Penguins, there was that signing of Jagr the other day.  Now nearly everyone expected the Flyers to be looking at wingers, maybe Erik Cole or Michael Ryder, but no one was taking about Jagr to the Flyers until the day before free agency.  Apparently the Flyers pursuit of him didn't even start until then until Holmgren speculatively sent a text to former flyer Petr Svoboda, who is the agent for Jagr and Voracek.

Jagr will be a very interesting case.  He'll turn 40 in midseason and will not be the dominant player of old, but he's remained productive in Russia and is coming off a very strong World Championships performance.  It's easy to question whether an aging temperamental Euro star is a right fit on the Flyers, but Jagr seems more dedicated to training and staying in shape than ever before.  Also he apparently did his homework and chose the Flyers (which were not the richest offer) after talking to the coaches and players.  There's lots of reasons to be hopeful that Jagr will have a productive season, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him hit 60 points this season.

Lastly, there is the signing of Andreas Lilja.  A cheap, depth defensemen for the 6/7 role.


Other Signings:
-Handzus to SJ for $2.5x2 years.  Early in the day it was reported that the Flyers had signed Handzus, to which I was receptive.  He would be a big centermen to play on the third line and would be a decent fit at the right price.  Seems to me SJ got a good deal here for an aging though still valuable centermen.

-Upshall to Florida for $3.5x4.  Wow, the first of many big overpayments on the day.  This signing was the perfect marriage of a player who's not quite as good as he thinks he is (career highs; 22 goals and 34 points) with a team looking to overpay to get to the cap floor.

-Leino to Buffalo for $4.5x6.  This is an outright shocker.  I don't blame the Flyers for holding steady at a $3m deal, though I suspected someone else would come along and offer more.  Just not that much more.  Calendar year 2010 Leino, who scored 21 points in 19 playoff games and had a very strong first half of the ensuing regular season, was a player worthy of a deal approaching $4m a season.  Calendar year 2011 Leino, not so much.  While Leino is younger and better defensively than Jagr (though he's still not great defensively himself), what are the odds the Flyers get more points and goals from Jagr at $3.3m this year than Buffalo gets from Leino at $4.5?

-Cole to Montreal for $4.5x4.  This is the guy who I wanted on the Flyers, and while that's not an outrageous price, it was still too high for the Flyers to entertain.

-Connolly to Leafs for $4.75x2.  Connolly is a talented player who plays at near a point/game pace when healthy, but when is he ever healthy?  He's only played 70 games once since the lockout, and here are his point totals the last 5 seasons; 1, 40, 47, 65, 42.  This is a $5 million player now?  At least it's only a 2 year deal.

-Vokoun to the Caps for $1.5x1.  An outright steal for the Caps, as he fell into their laps when he didn't find a big money deal on July 1 and looked for a contender to join.  Of course the Flyers could not have entered free agency and expected to get Vokoun for anywhere near this amount, but it still hurts to watch a competitor get such a quality goalie for so little salary, even if it was just luck.


Up Next for the Flyers:
-The Flyers don't have much cap space left.  They likely have $3m or so in cap space left after signing Simmonds and making expected cuts, but they still need to carry a 19th or 20th skater and leave a little cap buffer.

-There are rumors the Flyers are sniffing around Jason Arnott.  He would be of similar interest to the Flyers for the same reason as Handzus; a big third line center at this point of his career.  He might want too much money though.

-The Stamkos rumors never go away with the Flyers.  The latest is Schenn, Bobrovsky and 1st rounder for Stamkos.  If there was no salary cap and this was purely about hockey, I definitely do this deal.  Given the cap restraints however, the Flyers will likely have to dump more salary to fit Stamkos in (Hartnell or Carle maybe), and would not be in great shape next offseason allocating raises to JVR and Coburn, so it's ultimately a tough call.  This is assuming of course the rumors are accurate and Stamkos doesn't simply resign with the Lightning.

Division Clinched

It was by the skin of their teeth, but the Flyers clinched the division for the first time in 6 years last night.

A playoff atmosphere at the arena last night and a perfect start before the Flyers found themselves down 4-3. I guess the Flyers should just take the win and move on. Very fitting however, that the line of Leino-Briere-Hartnell plus 4 points from Andrei Meszaros carried the day. Those are the guys that have been there doing it all regular season, and it wasn't Richards or Carter or came through with the big plays when the team needed them today.

So now that the Flyers are in the playoffs, the Flyers have about 4 days to answer some questions.

The issues;

-Zherdev. This one's pretty easy--he stays in the lineup. As long as he's not hurting the team with turnovers or bad penalties or the like, the team could use his stick skills and shooting.

-Briere. Seems to be healthy. Thank god.

-Richards & Carter. No injuries this year, time for Carter to be a go-to scorer in the playoffs. It hasn't been a terribly impressive regular season for Richards, but he should turn it up in the playoffs.

-Pronger. No way to really know what's going on with his injury, but I'd very surprised if he doesn't play in game 1 of the playoffs (with significant minutes).

-Power play. Still looking pretty scattershot.

-Goalies. Alas, the million dollar question, as it has been all season.

So, Goalies

All the indications the past few weeks were that Bobrovsky was Laviolette's guy, and he confirmed as much this week. A while back I decided that my preference was Boucher.

I see Bobrovsky and I see a goalie who hasn't figured it out yet. Regardless of what he is capable of long term, right now I see 3 major holes; 1) gets small and scrunchy on long shots, 2) has developed a disturbing tendency to have a gaping five hole when moving laterally on breakaways, and most importantly, 3) still loses track of the puck often and is caught unaware with traffic and when the puck is jammed in around the crease. The way he was pulled yesterday was very ugly for a goalie who is supposed to carry the load in the playoffs. Honestly, it reminds me of 1997, when in the final game of the season, Hextall was pulled after giving up 4 goals, and the team rallied behind Snow paving the way for Snow in the playoffs.

Given my lack of faith in Bobrovsky, is Boucher any better? Maybe, maybe not. I think if Boucher can stay 'quiet' in the crease, he's the better option. He's not really much more than a mediocre NHL goalie, but he should be mostly reliable.

Honestly I kind of wish Leighton had gotten a game, but I suppose Laviolette was trying to give the keys to his guy, and the Flyers had no breathing room to give Leighton a trial game anyway. Truthfully Leighton is just another not-quite-good-enough goalie on the Flyers payroll, but I do think his play the last few months of last season was better than what Boucher and Bobrovsky are providing right now.

Also, for anyone keeping score, Ray Emery was called up by the Ducks last month and finished the season 7-2 with a 926 save percentage. So much for the Emery as a low-risk high-reward signing, but it's hard to blame the Flyers for not carrying 4 NHL goalies in their ranks.

No matter who's in net, the Flyers inability to lock it down (read, the only NHL team without a shutout this year), is likely going to be their doom this year.

What changed?

As the Flyers skid to the finish, I was wondering what has really changed here. The only thing that really jumps out at me is that the Briere/Leino line hasn't been nearly as productive recently. I wouldn't say Richards or Carter has been playing great recently, but no worse than earlier this year. Do the numbers bear this out?

Some quick splits, focusing on even strength play only:

Even strength points/game, +/- per game, Pre-allstar game-->March

Leino: .58, +.4 --> .38, -.38

Briere: .74, +.34 --> .54, -.08

Hartnell: .56, +.32 --> .15, -.08

Richards: .58, +.28 --> .46, +.31

Carter: .64, +.36 --> .64, +.55

Giroux: .58, +.22 --> .62, +.31

So focusing only on even strength play, the Flyers' stars are doing pretty much the same recently. The big difference is the Leino line.

I am of the opinion that the Leino line carried this team for the first half of the season, consistently creating far more scoring chances than other lines. I would love to see chances or penalties drawn per line, but alas. The statistics above show that line has been far less productive at even strength recently (look at the +/-) and I don't think most noticed how much the Flyers leaned on that line for success. Kind of shocking what happens when you take it away, even with the other stars holding steady.

Doom and Gloom Day

Time to get out all the doom and gloom.

-The Flyers lost 4 games in a row in regulation for the first time all season.

-The Flyers had one of their worst losses in years yesterday.

-The questionable goaltending is cracking.

-The entire Hartnell-Briere-Leino line doesn't look the same.

-Pronger's getting old.

-Versteeg isn't showing too much.

-O'Donnell is making more mistakes.

-The struggling PP is getting worse.

-The Flyers can't match their opponents' intensity, and when they should be raising their game for the playoffs, they are slumping.

Am I forgetting anything?

Plus/Minus Check-in

Always interesting to see how players are performing in the plus/minus category. All the usual caveats apply (ice time, matchups, roles...blah blah blah).

Current leaders:

Meszaros, +29 (#1 in NHL)

Leino, +23 (#3 overall, #1 forward)

Carle, +20 (#7)

Briere, +17 (#15)

Hartnell, +17 (#15)

In the basement:

Carcillo, -7 (26gp)

Bartulis, -4 (12gp)

Powe, -1

First of all, when you're the number 1 team in the NHL, everybody has a pretty good plus/minus rating.

Two things jump out from the leaders; 1) Meszaros is playing really outstanding. Part of that is helped by playing on the third pair before Pronger got hurt, and thus being matched up against the opposition's third line. Still, his numbers have gone up since seeing increased ice time with Pronger out, and #1 in the NHL is #1 in the NHL, period.

The second thing that jumps out is all the members of the Briere line, with Leino leading the way. Anyone who's been paying attention knows the Briere line has been the best and most consistent line for the Flyers this year. Leino being several points ahead than his linemates also underlines his excellent play this year, and that he's also the best defensive forward on that line.

Carle's performance also demands praise. That plus/minus is way up there, and notably higher than his partner's (Pronger at +7).

At the other end, Carcillo and Bartulis stand out. I would be worried if Bartulis sees much playing time come the playoffs, and Carcillo is not doing anything to help his slim chances of resigning. I wouldn't worry too much about Powe, because the whole 4th line has pretty low numbers, and he's just a bit behind them.

Report Card Day

Little did I realize, but the Flyers play their 42nd game tonight. Therefore it is very important to give out midseason grades immediately, lest they lose their eminence.

As a team, things have gone pretty much as well as anyone could've expected. ESPN seems to think highly of them.

Summary: The Flyers are without question the cream of the crop in the Eastern Conference. Even without veteran defenseman Chris Pronger, who should return from injury in the near future, the Flyers haven't missed a beat. They have great balance up front and steady netminding from Renaissance man Brian Boucher. Fewest road losses in the NHL also illustrate the team's maturity. Grade: A-plus. Trending: Up.

So there's that, and not much else to say.

As for players, without doing the tiresome grade for each one;

Thumbs Up

-Leino, killing it

-JVR, coming on and the team will be thrilled if he keeps it up

-Boucher, (see JVR)

-Briere, looking like the player everybody hoped for when signing the big contract

-Hartnell, doing his job well

-Giroux, breakthrough first third, needs to rev it back up.

-Meszaros, outperforming Carle and Coburn

-Nodl, ~20 goal pace for no-goal Nodl!

-Bobs, great start, will need to re-find that form to help Boucher

Holding steady, check back at playoff time

Pronger, Timonen, Richards, Carter, Carle, Coburn, O'Donnell, Betts

*shrugs*

Shelley, Carcillo, Bartulis, Zherdev

Random thought:

The Flyers will have a two-headed monster in net for the foreseeable future, would it be incredibly corny to nickname said beast Bobby Boucher/Waterboy?

The Flyers hate Andrew Alberts

I don't know what it is, but something about Andrew Alberts must piss off the Flyers. For the second time in the last few seasons, a Flyer will be suspended two games for going after Alberts. I will have to get to the bottom of this.

Is Scott Hartnell the Worst Breakaway Player in the NHL?

Seriously.

Last night;

The last Hartnell shootout attempt I can remember from a few seasons ago;

He's obviously confused by the breakaway play in general, because he's not much better at defending them either;

Over the last few seasons, by my count Hartnell has gotten more breakaways than any other Flyer. He's just terrible at them. I was hoping at some point he'd show a significant in improvement in breakaway skills to capitalize on just a few of those, but nope.