Gagner vs. Voracek

With the news that the Flyers will be keeping Sam Gagner on the roster, I thought it would be worthwhile to try and feel out some reasonable expectations for him this season.  The easiest place to begin is to compare him to Jake Voracek.

Gagner and Voracek are the same age, and were taken #6 and #7 respectively in the 2007 NHL draft. For quite a while they were regarded about equally.  Take a look at their points/game to this point in their NHL careers.

Gagner immediately was promoted to the NHL and had a pretty good season (his second highest points/minute in career, in fact).  After that, the players tracked very closely for the next 4 years.

Things really took off for Voracek in his second full season with the Flyers, in the strike shortened year.  Still, many would probably say they were still closely comparable, as evidenced by their contracts.  In his breakout season, Voracek was in the first year of a 4 year deal that pays him $4.25m/year (this upcoming season is the last season of this contract).  After that same season, the Oilers signed Gagner to a deal that paid him $4.8m/year.  Maybe the Oilers were foolish, and Voracek would've cashed in on the big year a bit, but it still shows their general respect level around the league were similar.

Things really went off the rails for Gagner in 2013-2014, as he registered a career worst 37 points, and had the second worst plus/minus on the team.  This resulted in the Oilers casting him off, ultimately landing arriving in Arizona via Tampa Bay.  His stats didn't improve much last season in the desert, although to be fair he was the top scoring forward on a team with no talent up front.

There aren't a lot of indicators that Gagner is due for a bounce-back season this year with the Flyers.  He does however fill a need for the Flyers, as in my opinion their top off-season need was skill on the wings.  Gagner and the Flyers must hope that a permanent move to the wing and the change of scenery to Philadelphia will reinvigorate his career.  The Flyers are probably hoping for 45-50 points from him, and anything above that will be a bonus. 

Maybe the Flyers can make it three in a row on reclamation projects; Mason, Del Zotto, then Gagner.

Del Zotto Contract

 Speaking of Del Zotto, it was announced today that the Flyers re-signed Michael Del Zotto.  He was due for an arbitration hearing next week.

The details of the deal is that it's a 2 year deal, at a cap hit of $3.875/year.  I don't love the deal, but I don't hate it either.  I'm not completely sold on Del Zotto's all around game, but the guy deserves credit.  He came in on a put-up-or-shut-up one year deal, and scored 10 goals and 32 points in 64 games.  I was expecting his deal to be between $3.5 and 4 million, although I had lingering fears of a higher cap hit or a long term.  With a 2-year deal, the Flyers aren't married to him long term, which is needed flexibility with all the young defensemen the Flyers have coming up.

The Flyers now have around $300k and change of cap space, if you include Manning on the squad.  They would get back $625k if they send him down to the AHL.

Flyers Searching for the Bottom

Any way you look at it, it's awful.  The Flyers are 1-7-1 in their last 9.  Only laughing stocks Buffalo, Carolina, and Edmonton, and injury-ravaged Columbus have worse records.  The penalty kill is dead last.  They have been dominated in their last 2 road division games against the Rangers and Islanders.  The Flyers are in the bottom handful of teams in shot differential, 5v5 Corsi percentage, and team save percentage.  The bottom line, is they are getting whipped.

Everyone knows the defense is not talented enough, but the problems have become much bigger.  For one thing, their team defensive coverage is terrible.  It seems opponents find countless passing seams to exploit and are quicker to every loose puck, and that's when someone is not completely unmarked in the slot.  One could look at the Detroit loss and conclude maybe the rebounds and bounces simply didn't go in favor of the Flyers, but when it happens every night, it's not luck.

Second, the offense is completely reliant on the Giroux line.  Giroux is generally doing his thing, Schenn is contributing right now, and Voracek continues to be spectacular.  Every other line has disappeared.  Lecavalier can't find a role.  Umberger has been total deadweight.  Couturier handles the puck like a hot potato and immediately looks to get rid of it.  Simmonds has faded after his promising start.  Then end result is that Giroux and Voracek have been on the ice for every single Flyers goal in the last 4 games.

Bad team defense and completely one dimensional scoring is a recipe for a last place team.  The Flyers had a similarly bad start last year amongst the coaching change, but as I've already written, there's no excuse for such a start this year.  Furthermore, there is no clear path for the Flyers to crawl out of this mess.  I expect things to naturally rebound a little, but given the depth of the problems, hope for a playoff spot appears increasingly distant.

What's Working, What Isn't

One month into the season, some truths around this year's team are settling in.

-FTW.  Voracek is playing amazing.  Clearly the best performer on the team right now.  I attended the LA Kings game last week, and he was easily the best player on the ice for either team IMO.  With 18 points in 12 games, only Crosby has more points.  He's still not much of a shooter in my opinion, but he is a top-notch puck carrier and his 10-pound weight loss in the offseason has worked out really well, noticeably increasing his quickness and stamina.

-FAIL.  The team has no Hartnell replacement on the top line or top PP-unit.  Raffl has done pretty well playing with Voracek and Giroux, tying Simmonds for the team lead in goals largely with his skating and by popping up in good spots on both ends of the ice.  Still, he's just a complementary player, and he doesn't play on the PP either.  And now he's out for 6 weeks as ANOTHER Flyers gets injured after being struck with a shot in the foot.  The man the Flyers received for Hartnell, R.J. Umberger, is appearing in games according to the box scores, but I cannot verify that fact after watching the games.

-FTW.  PPs against are way down.  The Flyers are currently in 6th in the league in times shorthanded.  They were 29th last year, and dead last the two years before that.

-FAIL.  The PP is down, and their failure to convert chances at key junctures in games has cost them points in the standings.  Part of that is Hartnell down, and part of the is Streit replacing Timonen.  Streit is a good PP player, but his style is much different.  Streit loves to shoot (and has a much better shot that Timonen), whereas Timonen was a manager back there.  Streit's style may lead to a little more streakiness in results if the bounces don't go your way when you fire it in there.  Additionally, when Lecavalier returned from injury he was immediately put into the Hartnell high slot spot, but by the end of the game Schenn was reinserted there.  I guess Schenn will get an extended opportunity on the ice with top talent there, even if he lost the chance to play LW with Giroux and Voracek at even strength.  Let's see what you can do, young man.

-FTW.  Michael Del Zotto's role is increasing, often leading the team in ice time.  He holds onto the puck longer than any other defensemen on the roster, which was a trait this defensive group was generally lacking.

-FAIL.  Ghost was gone in a flash.  I don't blame the team, but I was hoping to see a few flashes from Ghost before he was sent back down.  I did like what I saw from Colaiacovo in his first game, reading the game well and managing the puck.  It will be interesting to see how a defense corps prominently featuring multiple guys whose NHL career was on the fringes (Colaiacovo, Del Zotto, Schultz) does over the next few weeks while MacDonald and Coburn recover.

Out of Hibernation

Yes, the time has come to bring this blog out of hibernation.  The Olympics are over, the trade deadline looms, and the stretch run beckons.  A good a time as any to start again!

Soooo, to begin with Flyers talk.  It was a productive weekend for the Flyers, taking 4 points from division opponents.  They are currently in second place, but it's all so tight, that doesn't mean much.  A bad week or so and they could easily fall several spots.

I don't have much new to say about the team really, but it does appear the team will go as far as Voracek, Giroux and Mason can take them.  Those are the real make-or-break players for me.

Also, this is old news, but let's take a minute to marvel at the Flyers' third period excellence.  With the win yesterday, the Flyers extended their franchise record of 12 wins in a season when trailing in the 3rd period.  Simply setting the record is impressive (it was held by the powerful 1997 Lindros Stanley Cup finals team), but more impressive is where they came from.

Last year, the Flyers were -15 in the 3rd period, 28th in the league.  When Laviolette was fired this year, they were being outscored 6-1 in the 3rd period.  Now the Flyers comeback like crazy, are 2nd in the league in 3rd period goals, and are +9 overall in the 3rd.  Where did this come from?  It's hard to say.  I'll just enjoy it for what it is.

Trade Deadline
The NHL trade deadline is Wednesday at 3pm.  I don't expect (nor do I want) the Flyers to be buyers at the deadline this year.  They are missing too many pieces to make a rental worthwhile, and lack disposable pieces to trade away.  Still, the trade deadline could be pretty interesting league-wide.

The Blues have already made a big move getting Ott and Miller from Buffalo.  They look primed right now. 

Kesler wants out in Vancouver, and reportedly Pittsburgh has already made a big offer (please Flyers stay out of this---there is no room for him on this roster).

The Islanders are almost surely trading Thomas Vanek and Andrew MacDonald.

The Rangers may trade their captain if they can't get Callahan signed, and Marty St. Louis is another captain that wants to be traded (a ridiculous story overall).

Moulson?  Ehrhoff?  Edler?

There's a lot to chew on.  Granted, trade deadlines are a lot of talk and a little action the last few years, but the cap is going up next year, and teams can trade salary so maybe we'll see some action.

Regarding the Flyers, the only trades acceptable to me are for long-term investments on defense.  I personally believe the Flyers must rebuild their defense from scratch, so any youth or quality is welcome.  By the same token, Mezo may intrigue some playoff teams looking for depth at the back end of their defensive corps, so he may be heading the other way from Philadelphia.

What's Hot, What's Not

Today I'm going to pretend I'm a 90s supermarket tabloid, and quickly cover many subjects in a peurile hot list.

What's Hot:  Jake Voracek.  Everyone has taken note of his recent points explosion and NHL player of the week award, though he's been the Flyers best player for a few weeks now.  His season reminds me of Hartnell last year; started out pretty rough (0 goals and 2 assists in his first 7 games) and fans called him out before having a torrid stretch for a few games.  Hartnell played that out into a full season of excellence scoring at the rate of a goal every other game the rest of the season.  Similarly, Voracek showed up for the season overweight, and started out with only 3 points in 8 games, but has 18 points in 13 games since.  Voracek has always been a hardworker on the ice during games, but I think there was some perception in Columbus that his off-ice habits weren't the best.  Either way, hopefully this is a true career turning point and Voracek becomes a point a game player, which I wasn't sure would ever happen.

What's Not:  Ilya Bryzgalov.  He started out great, but has been slowly but steadily slipping.  He's played an absurd amount of games, and his game is showing cracks.  He's fighting in there, but he's increasingly sloppy in angles and is leaking stoppable goals.  Too bad the Flyers back-ups don't offer much relief.

What's Hot:  The Flyers first PP unit.  This unit is moving the puck with confidence and scoring goals.  When the Flyers win, it's usually because this unit has come up with key goals.

What's Not:  The Flyers second PP unit.  These guys are still pretty hopeless.

What's Hot:  Brayden Schenn.  I won't say he's been tearing it up with irresistible play, but his 15 points in 14 February games almost matches his 18 for the entirety of last season.  That's progress.

What's Not:  Trading for veterans or rentals.  I've said it before and I'll say it again, the Flyers this year are not a great team, and they are not a player away from being a cup contender.  This doesn't rule out all trades, but trading youth and picks for veteran rentals is not wise.  Holmgren, apparently, can't help himself from trading away draft picks, and he re-acquired Simon Gagne yesterday for a 4th round pick (a 3rd rounder if Flyers make the playoffs, which I'm sure Holmgren is planning to do).  Mind you, Gagne is a pretty old and fragile 33, only playing 34 games for the Kings last year and has been a healthy scratch their last 4 games.  He's still got speed and smarts, but he doesn't go to scoring areas anymore.  I suspect the Flyers will put him on the 2nd PP unit mentioned above and let him try to snipe a few though.


The trade winds are blowing around the Flyers for sure.  I just hope Homer doesn't lose his head and trade for a rental.  If it's a restructuring trade for a young defensemen, I would give up some quality as it suits both long and short term needs.  If it's trading for an aging UFA to-be to squeeze a little more out of this year's squad, that is misguided.  Briere rumors have started, and that could make sense as he's not been a big regular season performer for the Flyers, but he has been absolutely money in the playoffs, and he's only owed $5 million in real dollars over the next two seasons.  That should interest other teams.  Trading Couturier on the hand (who I'm sure other teams will ask for) will give me shit-fits, although I'll allow an exception if it's for a young defensemen who projects as a top pair guy.

Until then, look for the Flyers to scrape out wins on the backs of Voracek, their PP and Bryzgalov.  If any one of those factors takes the night off, it's probably not going to be a good night for the Flyers.

Flyers Finding Their Niche

I have written that this year's Flyers really aren't all that good a team, and I haven't seen anything to make me change my mind.  They're not contenders, but they are finding their niche as a bubble playoff team.

After a pretty rough start, the Flyers took 7 of 8 points from a 4 game homestand.  The wins were hardly commanding victories, but they scrapped out the wins against other bubble teams.  They followed that up with a humbling loss in Toronto, before a gritty win in Winnipeg.

The lesson learned from this stretch is we've seen how the Flyers have to win games this year.  They don't have the firepower to outscore teams like last year; 4 and 5 goal performances will be rare.  Bryzgalov is playing excellent however, as he is tracking the puck very well, and really battling and recovering better.  The Flyers also are doing more to collapse around the net in ways they desperately needed to last year.

The Flyers can get some wins this year in this fashion, but it's all pretty fragile.  For one, this team is completely dependent on Bryzgalov (hard to believe we're saying that about Bryzgalov after last year, or the Flyers in general, well, ever).  Partially because Bryzgalov has been very good, and partially because the backup goalie situation is so lousy.

It's also fragile because of the youth up front.  Giroux is looking overwhelmed with Hartnell and Jagr out of the lineup.  Recently, Read, Voracek and Schenn have stepped up their play, but who knows how that will keep up.  It will be a struggle all season, but hopefully Hartsy and Mesz will be back relatively soon, which will help.

Speak of Jagr...

Jagr is one of many recently departed Flyers doing very well thus far.  Jagr has become a key piece on offense for Dallas, and is leading the team with 11 points in 13 games.  The Flyers are missing him this year more than I expected.  Also;

-Matt Carle is playing big minutes in TB (which shouldn't be surprising) and already has 2 goals.  The other key departure for the Flyers this year.

-JVR has 8 goals in 13 games, a pretty stark change from the 11 he scored in 43 for the Flyers last year.  Many of these have been of the tap-in variety, finishing off others' plays (he only has 2 assists), but there's nothing wrong with that.  He's playing well and with confidence, but there's no need for Flyers fans to panic about that trade at the moment.

-Similar to JVR, Jeff Carter has 6 goals (and only 1 assist) in 11 games for the offensively challenged Kings.

Put all this together, and you can see all the offense that has gone out the door from Philadelphia.  That kind of goal-hawking from JVR and Carter is certainly a missing ingredient from this year's Flyers roster.

But Don't Panic

The Flyers have obvious needs, which my man Bill Meltzer accurately describes and prioritizes; "1) a puck-moving defenseman who can play 20+ minutes per game, 2) a scoring winger who possesses both good size and a consistent willingness to work in the "greasy" areas of the ice (though I might go a little more towards high-end skill players who snipe, in the mold of Perry or Iginla mentioned below), 3) a backup goaltending upgrade in case of a long-term injury to Ilya Bryzgalov, 4) a fourth-line center who is strong on defensive zone face-offs." http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=49290#.UR0bGqWyD9l

Despite this, it DOES NOT make sense for the Flyers to go chasing down trades.  For one, they are not a contender this year, so trading more youth and picks is a bad idea.  The Flyers have very few high-end prospects, and are generally depleted of prospects outside the NHL from trading away so many picks under Holmgen.  Second, these are tough holes to fill, as evidenced by the Timonen contract signed last week.

Clearly the Flyers looked around and saw Timonen was their only option for a number 1 defensemen next year.  He is old, and isn't the defensemen he used to be, but the Flyers renewed him at a very high cap number (shockingly high at first glance) because they had no other choice.  After accepting that reality, my only regret is that they couldn't get Kimmo to resign for say $4.5m instead of 6.  $1.5m in cap space will make a difference if the Flyers pursue Iginla or Perry as free agents after this season...

Raise the Red Flag

I think it's going to be a looooong season for Flyers fans.  The Flyers simply don't look like a very good team, and there is no cavalry on the way.  They have few assets to trade, and Hartnell and Meszaros will not be back any time soon.  Overall, I think Flyers fans need to buckle down for lots of joyless 2-1 hockey games this season, and making the playoffs will be a struggle.

Facts:
-The Flyers have outscored opponents 7-6 in 5-on-5 play this season.  This puts them among the stingiest 5-on-5 teams in the league, but at least it's a positive differential.

-The Flyers have been shorthanded 31 times this season.  That is the second most of anybody in the league.

-The Flyers penalty kill is operating at a pitiful 66.7%.  That is 29th out of 30 teams.

-The Flyers power play is at 13.5%.  That is 24th.

-The Flyers are being outscored 9-4 in the first period.  Three of those goals came against Florida, meaning they've been outscored 9-1 in the first period of all their other games.

Problems:
-Teams are focusing all their attention on Giroux, and he is really struggling because of it.  No one else on the Flyers strikes fear into opponents or creates mismatches.

-No spark from the wings.  Save for Matt Read's outburst against Florida, the Flyers wings have done little to create offense.  They try to score all their goals from the doorstep, as that is the skill set for guys like Knuble and Simmonds.  Still, this is too predictable and easy to defend if no one is stretching the defense.

-The power play is awful.  Just awful.  Confusion, hesitation.  Often times they can't even enter the zone.

Solutions:
-Fix the power play.  Okay, so that is easier said than done, but this should be the predominant project for the coaches.  Spend an unbalance amount of time on it.  Get those zone entries straightened out, which currently look haphazard.  Get Voracek off the point.  If this team is looking for dirty goals from Knuble and Simmonds, get a shooter back there.

-Shoot!  The Flyers pass up countless shooting opportunities for one more pass into the slot.  This relates to the power play and lack of wing play, but when struggling on offense, get the puck to the net!  Even if they don't have natural snipers in the lineup, you've got to try, and stop making it so easy for the defense to collapse in the slot.

-Load up the first line.  The Flyers are going for the balanced approach, but the result is a bunch of mediocre lines and an overwhelmed Giroux.  Take some pressure of Giroux, and put him and Briere on the same line.  Round out the line with Simmonds or Knuble.  I noticed Giroux and Briere were together late in the 3rd last night, but with all the PPs I couldn't tell if that was a one time thing, or if was simply a temporary change while trailing late.

-Stay out of the box.  If your penalty kill sucks, being among the league leaders in times shorthanded is unforgivable.

The Flyers Godfather

"Make them an offer they can't refuse."

As more details come about the Weber offer sheet, I think it's a fairly entertaining story.

For starters, Weber visited the Flyers (and the Rangers) recently, and the Flyers entered serious trade negotiations with Nashville.  Reportedly, Weber decided Philadelphia was where he wanted to be, and he and his agent made that clear to Nashville.

The entertaining part to me is Ed Snider's involvement.  For one, a team can't offer a contract like the Flyers did to Weber without ownership approval or encouragement.  In the case of Snider, it's probably encouragement.  Two, supposedly Snider himself gave Weber private tours of the Flyers facilities, including ordering everyone to immediately vacate the premises for his private tour and private meal in a back room.  This will remind Flyers fans of Snider's courtship of Bryzgalov, using Snider's private jet.

In trade talks, Nashville wanted Couturier AND Schenn, plus other parts.  Obviously, the Flyers balked.  Not only did the Flyers balk at that demand, they threw it back in Nashville's face with a huge offer sheet.  The prevailing wisdom is that an offer sheet would be practically a favor to Nashville because then they could simply match and thus avoid the complications of negotiating with Weber themselves, but perhaps the Flyers made the financial terms of the offer so onerous ($27m due in one calendar year) that Nashville ownership won't approve of matching.

There may yet still be a trade between Nashville and the Flyers regarding Weber, but the Flyers didn't like the way talks were going, and in turn made it a more dangerous game for Nashville.

It's hard to say what happens next, but I like Bill Meltzer's take on the situation here, which forcefully advocates a trade based on Voracek, Meszaros and first round picks as I speculated the other day.

On to Doan
After the Godfather successfully wined and dined Weber, it was widely reported that Doan visited.  I actually wouldn't make too much of this, because Doan is basically on a tour of NHL team, including NY and Detroit, among others.  I'm not sure if the Weber signing going through increases or decreases the likelihood of Doan signing in Philly, but Doan is clearly in no hurry to sign anywhere yet.

Flyers Offer Weber HUMONGOUS Deal

It is days like today that I treasure being a Flyers fan.  There's never a boring day, and nothing is out of the question.  For my money no team is more fun to follow despite no cup for 35 years, but that's probably a question for another day/blog.

As for the matter at hand, the Flyers have offered Shea Weber a 14 year, ~$110m contract.  This is the biggest contract in NHL history for a defensemen, and computes to a cap hit of ~$7.8 million.  Nashville will now have 7 days to match, or alternatively work out a trade with the Flyers.  If Nashville matches, all is said and done and Weber is guaranteed to be in Nashville next year.  If Nashville declines, Nashville will receive 4 first round picks from the Flyers.

With those hard facts out of the way, the real intrigue is how this plays out.  Upon some reflection, I believe this was ultimately the strongest play the Flyers could make to land Weber.

Weber has been something of a white whale for Flyers fans this offseason---a dominating defensemen who can comfortably fill the shoes of Chris Pronger.  I have previously speculated that the Flyers were not in the best position to land Weber, because Nashville will pull out all the stops to sign their franchise player, and the  Flyers have already traded away two key trading chips in JVR and Bobrovsky.  I have been among those believing "don't offer-sheet Weber because Nashville will match anything," but this was the best option available to the Flyers at the moment.  Because of the Flyers lack of other assets, they would not fare well in open trade bidding process, in my opinion.

By signing Weber to this offer sheet, the Flyers have shut out all other teams from the Weber hunt.  If Nashville matches, they can't trade him for one year, and he will likely be in Nashville for several years.  The Flyers now have exclusivity in trade dialogues with Nashville regarding Weber.  It also has to happen within the next 7 days, so the Flyers have accelerated the timeline.

Of course the simplest course of action is merely for Nashville to match, and then there's nothing to talk about.  All things being equal, I'm sure Nashville was prepared to offer Weber a long-term deal with a cap hit of ~$8m.  What gives Flyers fans hope here is their deal reportedly calls for $26m in the first year alone.  Can Nashville swallow that?  Mind you that Nashville's entire franchise is only worth $163m, and they only have $40m committed to the entire roster next year.  Nashville is required to spend $14m on SOMEBODY this offseason to get to the cap floor at $54m, but the way this deal is structured, their actual, IRL payroll this season would be at least $72m.  Whether or not they can handle $26m to Weber next season (and $56m over the next 3 years total) is basically a business decision.

To keep the conversation going, let's assume they can't, and earnestly talk trade with the Flyers.  Per the RFA offer sheet rules, the trade value is pegged at 4 first round picks.  This should be acceptable to the Flyers, considering they traded essentially 3 first round picks and a 3rd for Pronger a few years ago.  Now Pronger is one of the best defensemen of his generation, but he was about to turn 35, and his days as a Norris candidate were clearly behind him.  Weber is 26, entering his prime, and has been the Norris runner-up the last 2 seasons.

Nashville, however, will probably want something other than picks to show for the sudden departure of their franchise player.  What do the Flyers have to offer?  I would start with Voracek and Meszaros.  Mesz can play 20+ minutes a night for Nashville, and is likely the defensemen the Flyers would soonest trade with their sudden logjam of defensemen.  Voracek I like as a complimentary top 6 winger, though he's probably a 60-70 point player going forward.  Also, he is still not signed anyway.

Even assuming Nashville will take those two, there needs to be more.  First round picks are a good sweetener here.  The Flyers recent first round selection, Scott Laughton, could also be included.  The Flyers turned some heads picking this kid higher than most expected him to go, but he left a lot of observers impressed at the Flyers recently-concluded prospect camp.

Lastly, there is the possibility of trading Schenn and Couturier.  I really hate to think about this.  For me, Cooter is the best prospect the Flyers have had since Lindros.  His game is so complete, it's amazing, and it would really pain me to trade him for anyone.  Schenn is also a very promising player, who could break out big time this year.  Previously I would've said 'maybe' to trading Schenn for (and only for) Weber, but now Jagr and JVR are gone, and Luke Schenn is in.  This makes Schenn less likely to be traded away now.

I will stop here, rather than ramble on endlessly.  Overall, I think this maneuver gave the Flyers the best chance at landing Weber, but it's far from guaranteed Nashville lets him get away.  If I had to guess I feel like Nashville finds a way to keep him, but all bets are off.  The takeaway, however, is that by getting this offer sheet signed, the Flyers have promoted themselves from longshots on landing Weber, to having a very good shot at him as well as blocking potential rivals (mainly the Rangers) from acquiring him.

IF the Flyers were to trade away Voracek, Mesz, and picks/prospects, this is what Flyers fans are looking at:

It's nice getting that franchise defensemen, but for all the goals the Flyers scored last year, that forward group is THIN.  They really have no highly skilled winger to speak of, as Jagr, JVR and Voracek were ALL of their skill wingers last season.  At least there is still enough cap space to add a decent forward or two.

Draft Weekend Recap

Indeed, the pieces on the board began to move this weekend for the Flyers.  The rumors were getting crazy on Thursday, and the Flyer were supposedly in on everyone; Nash, Parise, Ryan, Suter, Weber, and trading up in the draft.  Ultimately, the Flyers made far less daring moves.

JVR
The move that was so heavily rumored in March finally came about.  For starters, I am on board with trading JVR.  He seems like a good kid, and he has the talent, I'm just not sure I see him producing consistently.  Often the only difference between a journey-man goal scorer and a top line allstar is consistency, and I think JVR will always be a streaky player.  He's not effective playing on the outside, and he's simply not a banger at heart.  Either way, I've previously written about his development here and here.

As for the particulars on this trade, I wrote about this in March, and not much has changed since...

On paper, the trade makes a lot of sense.  It is a like-for-like trade:
-both players were very high draft picks; JVR #2 in 2007 and Schenn #5 in 2008
-both players have made some noise in the NHL, with Schenn immediately joining the big club as an 18 year old and JVR turning a lot of heads in the playoffs last year
-both players may be seen as underwhelming in their development, with Schenn's ice time down this year and JVR not building off last year's playoffs
-both players are signed to manageable long term contracts

The Flyers need defensemen, the Leafs need size up front.  The trade is merely teams trying to address an organizational need while holding their salary, youth and long term potential constant.

All that said, the devil will be in details.  Flyers fans expect Schenn and other goodies for JVR, and Leafs fan vice-versa.  A rumor I read yesterday is that it will be the Flyers who have to sweeten the pot to complete the deal, and the Leafs want Matt Read.

No thanks on that one.  If that's the case I walk away.

http://mostlyflyers.blogspot.com/2012/01/jvr-for-luke-schenn.html


The Flyers top need was a physical dman, and they now have a promising young one.  A good, simple, hockey trade without a clear "winner" in my opinion.

Bobrovsky
Like JVR, I was ready to see Bob go.  I also wrote about this the other day.  Either way, I think his most likely career path is as a backup or journeyman starter.  He will now get a chance to prove himself in Columbus that he won't get here.

The Flyers should be happy with the trade return for him.  I think his reputation around the league has sunk a little bit over the last several months, and there was no way the Flyers were going to get the kind of return the Caps got for Varlamov last year---ultimately a fairly high first round pick in a deal that shocked a lot around the league.  Still, to salvage a mid-second round pick and two 4th rounders is a good return.  The Flyers definitely benefitted from other teams snatching up backup goalie candidates in the previous week, apparently allowing the Flyers to choose between Winnpeg's offer of the #39 pick, or the #45 pick and two 4th rounders from Columbus.

Incidentally, the Flyers drafted a goalie with the #45 pick.

Draft Picks
I will not pretend to know much about who the Flyers drafted.  Regarding their first round pick, it was mildly disappointing to see them take a center without high-end potential when they have rarely picked in the first round at all the last few years and desperately need defensemen in the system.  On the other hand, this player appears very likely to actually graduate to the NHL, and the Flyers have been amazing at picking winners late in the first round (Gagne, Williams, Giroux).  Scouts say this is a very poor draft class as well.

What Next?
First, this is how I see the Flyers cap situation;

To complete this, I guessed at a value for Voracek, and plugged in a backup goalie that may not be accurate, but the salary should be.  I also plugged in Carle at $4.25, although I find it hard to believe he will sign for so little, but people keep throwing it out there.  The takeaway is that the Flyers could have about $6 million or more to throw at a top-6 forward.

I think their pursuit of Nash is now dead.  JVR and Bob were their two major trading chips to get Nash, and they have been cashed in.  Personally, I think the Columbus GM is overplaying his hand, and as teams like the Flyers move on, the offers for Nash will now begin to get worse.  I wasn't a huge fan of Nash to Philly anyway.

The two major targets the Flyers could go after is Parise or Ryan.  Again, the Flyers don't have many assets left to trade for Ryan, so I'm not seeing it.  Regarding Parise, I think the Flyers have a lot of interest and will make an offer.  I have my doubts about how they'll fare in a bidding war on the open market, however.

The conservative course is to resign Jagr and pick up a role-player for the bottom two lines for about $5 million combined.  This is probably the wisest course in my opinion.  Granted, maybe the Flyers can't resign Carle or Voracek (silence is ominous regarding his extension, I think), and then all this needs to be re-evaluated.

Offseason Preparations

I've had my little break, and the dust has settled after the playoff exit.  Offseason grumblings are beginning to trickle out, so I'd like to make sense of it all.

Starting with the least speculative news, multiple reports last week indicated Jagr's first choice is to indeed resign with the Flyers, despite the indications that he was ready to move on fresh off the playoff loss.  Talks with the Flyers are said to be progressing, with one rumor on twitter saying that an agreement is already reached.

Additionally, claims are that the Flyers will resign Carle too, at slightly below market rate.  The twist to all this that the Flyers don't have the "tagging space" to sign them yet (basically, your payroll next year can't exceed this year's cap).  As a result, the cap will rise to $70.3 million on July 1, and the Flyers will be free to sign these guys then.  By that time however, Carle will officially be a free agent, and I still think someone throws $5+ million at him.  Could that throw a wrench in the Flyers plans?

Either way, let's assume these signings both happen.  Now I have heard NOTHING about Voracek resigning, but let's plug that in too.  You get this picture.

*This is without the "bonus cushion."  This means that for players like Schenn, his cap hit will be the full $3.11m until he misses a bonus benchmark.   This will happen soon, but even so, this is the limit with which the Flyers must comply on opening day.  If there is the "bonus cushion" this season, the Flyers can exceed the cap by such a bonus, but would be penalized if the players ultimately earned the bonus and send the Flyers over the cap.

Now ignore the lines, and I had to guess at contract values for Jagr, Voracek and Carle, but this should be more or less accurate.  The main takeaway is that, making no other changes, merely resigning these guys leaves little cap space for other signings.  This leaves the possibility of a plain vanilla offseason of resignings only, with no other acquisitions of note.

The Flyers rarely stand pat though, often pulling off trades at the draft.  I'm not going to speculate on roster depth maneuvers, but there could be a few big pieces in play.

JVR-Nash Rumors
For one, Howard Eskin dropped this nugget yesterday; JVR is delaying having surgery, which could hold up a trade for Nash because the Flyers can't trade him if he isn't healthy.  Now Eskin knows nothing about hockey in terms of analysis, but his information is good.  He usually only says something about the Flyers when he gets good info.

JVR was on the Flyers post-season surgery list, and unusually (but not shockingly), he has not had the surgery yet.  The Flyers have already denied the insinuation that there is any intent on the part of JVR to delay his surgery, and that does seem like a bombastic accusation. 

Putting aside the question of intent by JVR, but taking the underlying issue of his health holding up a trade as true, this transaction would return to a few themes.  Go back to the trade deadline, and the Flyers were players for Nash.  It was left at, and I quote Darren Dreger, "Price too high for Flyers(at moment) for Nash. May re-engage later. JVR,Bobrovski, Schenn or Couturier believed to be part of asking price."  Also, this would be the second time a JVR injury is seen as holding up a deal, as he was out with a concussion in February when the Luke Schenn trade rumors were everywhere.

I've already evaluated a JVR-Nash trade, but my stance remains the same---JVR will never be the player Nash is, but Nash's best days are behind him.  JVR and Bob I'd be happy to trade, but I would not include Schenn or Cooter in the trade for a diminishing star with a big cap hit like Nash.  We'll see if there's anything to this.

Nashville Defensemen
Putting aside Nash, the Flyers real need is top-end defensemen.  The two names being thrown around are Suter and Tobias Enstrom.  Enstrom is basically a younger Timonen, but he has one year left on his contract (at a low cap it), and would require a trade to acquire.  Suter will be a free agent on July 1, and Nashville is trying hard to resign him.

I've seen reports that the Suter doesn't want to sign with the Flyers, but even assuming those are incorrect, I doubt we'll see this signing.  For one, Nashville has the cap space and will pull out all the stops to keep him.  Second, everyone knows Detroit wants him, and Detroit has just seen Lidstrom retire and is letting Stuart go.  I think Suter stays in Nashville or goes to Detroit.

This situation creates a second domino--Shea Weber.  He is my grand hope for the Flyers this offseason.  A full-on replacement for Chris Pronger.  Weber is a restricted free agent, so practically this means a trade.  JVR again?  (A JVR+Mesz+picks seems to be a popular rumor.  I'd take that trade FWIW.)  The wrinkle here is that Weber and Suter are the spine of Nashville's team, and despite their limited budget, I can't see any way they let both Weber and Suter go.  Despite my fantasies, I think the most likely scenario is Suter to Detroit, Weber staying in Nashville.

Bobrovsky
Getting back to Bobrovsky, the Flyers could try to save some cap space but getting a cheaper backup.  Bob's future prospects in Philadelphia are waning, though I was an advocate of trading him last offseason.  I don't think Bob has nearly as much trading value as Flyers fans like to believe, but the time might be right to trade him anyway and bring in an experienced number 2.

Season Review

All playoff exits feel disappointing.  Through the ups and downs, fans always convince themselves that their team can win any series.  The Flyers flame-out was sudden, but in the long view, it makes a little more sense.

At no point this season did I think the Flyers were really primed for a serious cup run.  They were too young up front, having traded away their core forwards.  Then things started going pretty well, but Pronger went down.  Without Pronger, I thought a long playoff run was precluded.

The Flyers defensive and goaltending struggles reinforced that perception, until March shutouts made me begin to think I could be wrong.  The defense showed hope, and they could score whenever they needed to.  Eventually however, the gas tank ran dry and ingrained problems caught up to them.

It was a memorable and exciting season, and I could not label this team as underachievers.  That's pretty much all you can ask for as a fan.

PLAYER REVIEWS

Forwards:
-Giroux.  The burden fell to him to step up with Carter and Richards gone, and he responded with an MVP caliber season that Richards or Carter never produced.

-Briere.  A very poor regular season, largely saved by 8 playoff goals.  His overall game never really fired on all cylinders though, even in the playoffs.

-Voracek.  His 49 points is not all that impressive, but he was a valuable player for the Flyers, and I certainly didn't see anything like conditioning or effort issues that his old CBJ coach criticized him for on the way out.  He may never break 25 goals or 65 points, but I could see him being a winger on a quality top line.

-Hartnell.  A quiet playoffs shouldn't dilute a career year, and I think he was playing hurt anyway.  Consistently energetic, physical, and showed a finishing touch I didn't think he had.  All this after a pre-season lost to health concerns and a terrible start.

-Jagr.  54 points in 73 games, veteran leadership, and the self-proclaimed "most enjoyable year" of his career.  That qualifies as a success.  Jagr did have some nagging groin issues, and his energy level fluctuated throughout the year, so it remains to be seen if he will be back.

-Schenn.  18 points in 54 games is an unimpressive line, but he improved as the season wore on, and I'd go so far as to say he was the Flyers' best player in game 1 of the Pittsburgh series.  I expect  him to take the next step in his career next year.

-Read.  He turned out to be one of the best rookies in the league.  24 goals, played everywhere on the front line, and in all situations.  Pretty much ideal.

-Simmonds.  Almost doubled his career high in goals, largely due to 11 PP goals.  He looks to be a streaky scorer going forward, as he battles and puts himself in good positions but doesn't have very soft hands, his physical initiative will make him a fan favorite.

-Talbot.  Gave the Flyers everything they could hope for.  A lunchpail player and team guy, he went from 8 goals last season with Pittsburgh to 19 this year, and he and Giroux were lethal shorthanded in the playoffs.

-Couturier.  Surpassed all expectations this season, with 13 goals and logged big minutes in the playoffs.  Remarkable for an 18 year old, I could not identify any clear deficiencies in his game.  What a draft day steal, he could be a key player for the Flyers for a long time.

-Wellwood.  Nothing spectacular, but a young, speedy player that should be an asset for bottom lines and depth next year.

-Rinaldo.  Did all that could be asked of him.  Not a high skill guy, he successfully brought a lot of energy and spark to the Flyers.  He will have to continue to work on his discipline, though in his defense, he is clearly targeted by the officials and is on the short end of a lot of marginal calls.

-JVR.  I think JVR had a very disappointing season.  Yes, he had injuries, and his point production was decent before all the injuries.  Still, I wrote that his early stat line flattered his play even before all the injuries, and there's no escaping the reality of the 11g, 13a, 43gp for a player who was supposed to score 30+ goals this year.  He was very good in game 1 against NJ, but did little else in that series.

-Shelley.  Yes, he is still on this team.

Defense:
-Timonen.  Another year of wear and tear on Timonen's body, he still was able to be the Flyers top defensemen this year.  Injuries severely limited him in the playoffs.

-Meszaros.  Was inconsistent all year, never finding the form he had most of last season.  Then his season was cut short by an injury.  Maybe next year will be a bounce back season.

-Coburn.  Unremarkable regular season, but logged huge minutes in the playoffs.

-Grossmann.  The strong, defense-first, shot-blocking defenseman the team needed.  He has bad knees though, so let's hope they hold up.

-Carle.  The team's de facto number 1 defensemen this year, covering a lot of territory and eating minutes.  A very good chance that his time as a Flyers is over, however.

-Kubina.  He could not provide the reliable veteran presence the team was looking for---too old and slow, and picked up some injuries too.  Little chance of him returning.

-Pronger.  His season never really started, and his career may be over.  It's a shame his time with the Flyers was so short-lived.

-Gustafsson.  He really made some nice strides this season, though he could struggle at times.  Skilled and smart, but undersized.  It will be interesting to see what he can do next year in extended time.

-Bourdon.  Another pleasant surprise, as his career seemed to have stalled in the minors.  Looks like he might have an NHL future yet.

-Lilja.  Seldom used in the regular season, played decently in the playoffs.  Too old and slow to play a significant role.

Goalies:
-Bryzgalov.  Things did not go as planned, though he was amazing in March.  Too inconsistent and gaffe prone, but on and off the ice.  Seemingly has some growing up to do, though a full season in Philly under his belt will help.  Expectations will remain high with his 9 year contract.  I am optimistic.

-Bobrovsky.   Started the season strong, but on the whole did not take the next step in his career this year.  Now heading into the last year of his contract with the Flyers.

Cooter Goes Streaking

The Carter trade, which looked good on trade day, is looking like an epic win today.  This is mostly due to Sean Couturier.  When getting the #8 pick, you expect to get a good player, but Couturier is exceeding what can be reasonably expected of a #8 pick jumping straight to the NHL.

It was surprising that he fell that far in the draft, as back at the beginning of last season, many scouts projected him to the #1 overall pick.  However, if Flyers fans feel cheated by missing out on Patrick Kane due to bad luck and being stuck with #2 pick in a year when there were few can't miss players available after Kane, they've fallen into good fortune with Cooter.

This is no doubt rigging the stats by running the numbers when Cooter's are inflated by his current goal streak, but the numbers are pretty shocking.

Jeff Carter, 30gp, 10g, 7a, 59:53/goal, 85:33/assist
Sean Couturier, 40gp, 10g, 7a, 49:57/goal, 71:22/assist

Also keep in mind that Carter's ice time generally breaks down as 80% even strength (on a mediocre team with top linemates), 17% power play, 3% shorthanded.  Cooter's is more like 80% even strength (4th line with 2 other rookies), 2% power play, 18% shorthanded.

I don't mean to say Cooter is a better player than Carter right now, but for their production to be even close right now is shocking.  Cooter being more productive with his shorthanded minutes and 4th line teammates than Carter has been with Rick Nash is scandalous.

And why not throw in Voracek's stats too?
44gp, 7g, 20a, 102:51/goal, 36:00/assist

And oh yeah, the Flyers got a 3rd round pick as well for Carter.

Now just sit back and enjoy seeing Cooter playing with more and more assertiveness on offense.  He still doesn't like to carry the puck, but his smarts, passing and shooting are doing just fine right now.

Best trade for the Flyers since Recchi for Desjardins and LeClair?  Still a long ways to go, but the early returns are very good.

Early Defensemen Trade Candidates Rundown

Since Pronger went down, it's been pretty much assumed the Flyers will trade for a defensemen.  The only question was who and when.  With the team continuing to win, the Flyers were in no rush to make a deal.  Now the trade season is beginning to approach, and some chatter is circulating around about who the Flyers may be looking at.  Here's a quick rundown of a few candidates.


Name - Age - Size - Current Pay - Offseason status

-Shea Weber; 26, 6'4", $7.5m, RFA
A Norris candidate, he is the closest the Flyers could come to a like-for-like replacement of Pronger--big, powerful, physical, and a devastating slapshot.  Can the Flyers afford that salary?  Not if Pronger comes back next season.  Weber is in his prime, and he is a guy you build around, not add haphazardly.


-Ryan Suter; 26, 6'1", $3.5m, UFA
A high quality all around defensemen.  I heard one report that he is the Flyers' top target.  Due for a raise next year (expect $5m+).

-Cody Franson; 24, 6'5", $800k, RFA
Still developing as a NHL player, is an offense-oriented defensemen.  He would help the Flyers PP.  Currently playing 16 minutes a night for Toronto, and doesn't play on their PK.

-Luke Schenn; 22, 6'2", $3.6m, signed long term
A physical stay-at-home defensemen.  His ice time is down this season (from ~22 mins to ~16.5), which may indicate the Leafs would be willing to trade him.  His manageable long term deal adds some cost certainty for the Flyers.

-Tim Gleason; 28, 6'0", $2.75m (cap hit), UFA
A solid defensemen, with a little bit of offensive pop.  A name that keeps coming up for the Flyers, presumably because neither his cap hit (this year or next) or his trade price should be too onerous.

To this point, I haven't heard anything about who the Flyers are willing to trade away in return.  In general, Homer seems fond of trading first and second round picks to bolster his roster in midseason.

The only comments I'll make right now is that I really don't want to trade Schenn or Cooter.  I'm very hesitant to trade Voracek too.  JVR I'm open to trading, but JVR is worth more than Gleason or Franson, and probably worth more than Schenn too.

Midseason Player Reviews

I don't like rating players by grades, and there's no use denying every player faces different expectations and different roles.  I'm going to simply assume some degree of subjective expectations and rate players with a stock-rating flavor.

Outperform
-Claude Giroux.  No brainer here.  Last season he looked like a promising young center, but was arguably the 4th most visible center on the team.  With Richards and Carter traded to make room for a goalie, Giroux faced a lot of pressure to be the offensive lynchpin.  He has responded with an MVP caliber season.

-Jaromir Jagr.  Sticking with Giroux's line, no one was sure how Jagr would perform after three season out of the NHL.  50 points?  60 points?  He still couldn't do a point a game, could he?  Apparently yes.  After a slow start, he found his legs and has looked fantastic, and is a key offensive player for the Flyers.  Nagging injuries are the only thing slowing him down now.

-Scott Hartnell.  And now to complete the Giroux line!  Hartnell got off to a very rocky start, missing preseason time due to medical tests, and his place in the lineup was very much at risk with 2 points in 7 games and Simmonds on the top PP unit.  Placing him with Jagr and Giroux has been magic, as every player has looked better since this trio was complete.  Hartnell has 35 points in 34 games since then.

-Matt Read.  On pace for 25+ goals, and an offensive factor every night.  What more could the Flyers want from him?

-Jake Voracek.  His pace of ~50 points isn't going to turn many heads, and is line with his career averages, however I think he is playing better than that.  Didn't start off great, but he is up on his skates attacking the defense every night.  It's not a coincidence that the Flyers go on win streaks when he is playing his best.  Early in the season I talked about Jagr replacing Leino's offensive contribution, but it's actually been Voracek carrying the puck, making plays, contributing what the Flyers would've hoped for from Leino.

-Kimmo Timonen.  He has played big minutes and piled up the points, and looks to produce at a rate not seen since his best years in Nashville.

-Max Talbot.  Has played reliably all over the lineup, and at midseason is already near career highs in goal scoring and points.

-Sean Couturier.  I didn't listen to scouts early this year when they nearly unanimously predicted Cooter would make the big team.  I looked at the roster and though, nah.  Instead, Cooter has simply made it impossible to take him out of the lineup, playing like a veteran.

-Harry Zolneirczyk.  Despite being sent down early in the season, he has come back and looked great on the 4th line--energetic with occasional scoring.  Thumbs up, though to maintain a role like this in the NHL he will have to have an increased role on the PK.

-Zac Rinaldo.  I was pretty skeptical of this wild man coming into the season.  Although he seems targeted by officials, he has general kept it under control, potted a goal here or there, and aggressively sought contact on the ice. 

-Marc-Andre Bourdon.  His ascent to the NHL hasn't really gone like many in the organization may have hoped, but he has played within himself and looked like he belongs in the NHL.

Market Perform
-Danny Briere.  A pretty ho-hum regular season for Briere.  He's been there for some key goals, but hasn't looked consistently dangerous and is on pace for his lowest point totals for a full season as a Flyer (when healthy).  I am giving him somewhat of a pass due to raising his game in the playoffs the last two years, and the expectation that he will do it again.

-Matt Carle.  Carle continues to hum along, playing big minutes and getting decent point totals.  I still say he has the worst shot on the team though, so there's always that to infuriate Flyers fans when he gets so many chances with skating and awareness on the ice. 

-Wayne Simmonds.  Simmonds teased Flyers fans early this year and preseason with some offensive skill, however Flyer fans have seen some stone hands since then.  Simmonds is always battling out there, but his offense probably will never be more than occasional and streaky.

-Braydon Coburn.  Quiet but largely steady from Braydon.

-Sergei Bobrovsky.  Bob continues to progress nicely, and currently sports a much better stat line than Bryzgalov.  He probably deserves a chance to get some starts and be given a chance to run with it.

-Andreas Lilja.  Doing exactly what was expected; old and slow, occasionally physical defensemen.

Underperform
-Brayden Schenn.  I don't like putting him here, as when I see him play I see a skilled and intelligent player, and injuries never really gave him a chance.  Still, on January 1, there he was with 0 points and -7 in 8 games.  Hopefully, the second half will treat him better (and the signs are already good).

-James Van Riemsdyk.  Looking at a low 40s point season, and is not visible many nights.  This is even when I commented earlier this season that his points line flatters his play.  He was supposed to progress more than this by this point.

-Andrej Meszaros. The team's best defensemen last year, he struggled early.  His play has improved, but his overall body of work is not what Flyers fans were hoping for.

-Ilya Bryzgalov.  If you've read this blog, or even followed the Flyers at all, do I need to say anything?  Not playing like the top goalie the Flyers signed him to be.  He still can figure it out though.

-Jody Shelley.  Yes, he is still on this team.

No Rating
Chris Pronger, Erik Gustafsson

One Week Down

I was just speaking with Captain Obvious about how this year's Flyers team is very different from last year.  After speaking Captain Slightly-Less-Obvious, it's clear that the Flyers this year will be playing a very different game than any Flyers team in memory.  Now that the Flyers have played a few games, some judgments may be made.

This year's Flyers team will not be able to impose their will on other teams.  Long gone are imposing centers like Lindros and Primeau, but even last year's depth at center with Carter, Richards, Briere and Giroux looks much less formidable this year.  This team will be opportunistic on offense, and likely rely on their power play a fair amount.

The team spends most of its money on experienced defensemen and goaltending, creating a team that will be a tough nut to crack (hopefully).  More noteworthy is Bryzgalov's style of play; minimal movement, and a big shot blocker.  I'm not sure the Flyers have ever had a "percentage" goalie like Bryzgalov before.  Personally, I love it.  Last year the Flyers were the only team in the NHL not to earn a shutout, and you knew that wasn't going to happen this year.  I just thought it might take longer than 2 games to occur.

Another difference with this Flyers team is their size, which is often lost in the shuffle of this offseason.  Nearly every player they added is big; Jagr 6'3", Couturier 6'4", Voracek 6'2", and Simmonds 6'2".  Throw in these mobile, big players and I think the Flyers roster mix fits Laviolette's style of play much better.

Other Notes:
-Couturier could be staying with the big club for the season.  Getting all those PK minutes is highly unusual for an 18 year old player.  He plays a very smart game and doesn't look out of place at all, and the team is currently structured with him as the clear #1 PK center without a clear replacement if he is sent back to juniors.  The Flyers need to weigh this against his long term development, and being a PK guy for a few years isn't always the best way for a guy to blossom into a future top line player (which is what the Flyers should expect from him).


-With Betts coming back from waivers due to failing a medical, the Flyers have had 2 problems.  Betts' return eats cap space, and the Flyers were forced to make a minor trade to get under the 50 contract limit yesterday.  Betts' injury status convolutes the Flyers ability to waive him, though waiving him removes him from the salary cap.  With Shelley's suspension, Betts and Schenn's injury/AHL status, Walker's injury, and Couturier's uncertain prospect of sticking around, the Flyers roster situation is messy, and I'm not sure how they will choose to resolve it all.

-On the subject of Betts, it is curious to me that they are casting him aside so casually while laying such a big penalty killing burden on 2 rookies (Read and Couturier).  I'm not sure of the wisdom on this.

-Bryzgalov is making friends in Philly.  Timonen: "I knew very little about Bryz, but he's been promising and a really good guy.  Not a typical Russian...or like Zherdev."  Okay, so I made up the Zherdev part.  Also, apparently Bryzgalov delighted reporters with a Scarface impression the other day, but I don't know of any video of it.  *sadness*

-I can't be too hard on a guy who has 2 goals in three games, but I'm not terribly impressed with what I've seen from Voracek.  He has a few good shifts here and there, but most of his shifts are not helpful to his teammates.  That whole line isn't doing much.

A Breath of Fresh Air

The new season is days away, and the feeling around the team is palpably different.  The team hierarchy is  clear cut.  After a few seasons of Mike Richards being the face of the team (aka Captain Mumbles), the leadership burden falls on players who are very comfortable in their own skin; Pronger, Bryzgalov, Timonen and Jagr.  All of these players deal with the media and pressure effortlessly, and Pronger and Bryzgalov will be competing for the better quotes all season long.

I think it's hard for Flyers fans not to be excited with how this preseason went.  First of all, Jagr and Bobrovsky turned a lot of heads.  Apparently Jagr is training fanatically, returning to the rink for late nights skates in a weighted jacket, and his preseason performance is raising expectations.  I said previously that I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him hit 60 points, but many are now speculating him to hum along at a point/game pace alongside Giroux.

Also, Wayne Simmonds scoring 4 goals in the preseason has been a nice surprise.  I think he has been an under-appreciated acquisition this summer, and that he has the potential to be a fan favorite with his physical initiative.  Still, he only scored 30 points last year, so it was unclear how many points the Flyers could expect from him this year, but early indications point him to getting PP time.

The flip side of the coin is that Schenn and Voracek have had anonymous preseasons.  For Schenn, that could mean a start in the AHL.  While disappointing, this is not the end of the world.  Giroux and Spezza, for example, did the same, and things worked out pretty well for them.  Starting Schenn in the AHL would save the Flyers a lot of cap space too.  Voracek's ice time is assured, but he will drift into Laviolette's doghouse if he doesn't get going.  Fingers crossed there.

Overall it's an exciting time for Flyers fans.  I think this year's team ceiling is a little lower than last year's squad, which was kicking butt in January, however the chances of a crisis of confidence that afflicted last year's team are also lower.  Better goaltending, steadier leadership....etc.  I think the biggest problem facing the Flyers is that most of their players are still pretty young (JVR, Giroux, Simmonds, Voracek) or at the end of their careers and are at a great injury risk (Pronger, Timonen, Jagr).  A few key injuries could be devastating.

The final roster will be announced tomorrow, so I'm just going to wait and see on that one rather than prognosticate.  Maybe I'm getting lazy....

ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE

Huge huge huge day for the Flyers.  Actually let's make that 4 huges.

Carter?  Traded.  Richards?  Traded.  Bryzgalov? Signed.

My head is still spinning trying to make sense of it all.  There was always a decent chance Carter would be traded, and Richards was a dark horse trade candidate, but both of them traded?  Shocking.

The bottom line;
Out;
-Richards ($5.75 cap hit)
-Carter ($5.27 cap hit)

In;
-Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.6m cap hit)
-Brayden Schenn ($3.11 cap hit)
-Wayne Simmonds (RFA, $2 cap hit?)
-Jakub Voracek (RFA, $2.5 cap hit?)
-Picks: Columbus's 1st (8th overall), LA's 2nd, Columbus's 3rd

These are blockbuster moves.  Richards and Carter were supposed to be the face of the franchise and each are signed to mega-long term deals.  Schenn was ranked the best prospect in hockey by hockeysfuture.com, and Voracek was another very high pick who may be ready to take off in the NHL. Simmonds is a promising physical winger, and that collection of picks the Flyers added is nothing to scoff at.  Note that the Carter to Columbus deal is basically exactly as speculated a few days ago, with which I was pretty satisfied.

Obvious questions yet to be answered are the contracts for Simmonds and Voracek, and if Versteeg is yet to be traded.  I'd still say there's a fair chance Versteeg goes at the draft, but they no longer have to deal him.  Here's the Flyers lineup as of right now (pay no attention to the lines);

Voracek-Briere-Hartnell
Simmonds-Giroux-JVR
Versteeg-Schenn-???
Powe-Betts-Nodl
Shelley

Pronger-Carle
Coburn-Timonen
Meszaros-Gustaffson
Bartulis

Bryzgalov
Bobrovsky

The lineup above costs ~$56.5 against the cap, and does not include values for Voracek or Simmonds.  Also, if you didn't notice, Leino is not in this lineup, but Versteeg is.  That leaves $7.8m for 3 wingers.

It will be difficult to judge it all until the dust settles, but suffice to say I am excited.  Big upgrade in goal? Check?  Clear cap space? Check.  Add energy and size on the wings? Check.  Add draft picks?  Check.  It remains to be seen what lies ahead for Richards and Carter, but based on their performance last year, this overhaul is fantastic.  Of course they could just as easily have much better years in the future, so it's a risk.

So who are these guys the Flyers got?
-Bryzgalov.  I said last month he was the best goalie out there, but the Flyers likely couldn't fit him on the roster without trading Richards or Carter.  Turns out they were willing deal them both!  Allow me also to pat myself on the back for pretty much nailing his contract value.  Bryzgalov should be good, people.  There are no guarantees, but he's one of only two goalies in the league to finish top 10 in Vezina voting the past two years (Luongo being the other).  Even more impressive, he was a 3 star selection in 44% of his starts last year, and that was in what most consider to be an "off" year for him.  I am very hopeful.

-Schenn.  This guy is a very hot prospect.  The #1 prospect according to some, as mentioned above.  In January in the World Junior championships, he set the tournament record for points, was named the top forward and won the tournament MVP.   I can't say what to expect from him next year in the NHL as a 20 year old, but he projects to be an allstar NHL center for years to come.

-Simmonds.  He is still developing as a NHL player, but he's young (23 at season's start) and the Flyers will look for him to be around 20 goals/45 points.  From what I have seen, he's a physical player and his hits are heavy.

-Voracek.  The #7 pick in the 2007 draft, another winger with size still finding his role in the NHL (22).  No doubt though, he has high end potential.  His numbers at this point of his career compare favorably to Carter at the same point, and the Flyers will hope for 20+ goals and approaching 60 points.

Overall, I am excited.  The Flyers successfully addressed their biggest needs.  They added youthful, sizable physical wingers, made a huge upgrade in goal, got good draft picks, and added the best center prospect in hockey.  The price they paid was steep, but I think most Flyers fans were ready to say goodbye to Carter and Richards for better or for worse.  Exciting times indeed.  It almost feels like one of those trade frenzies you only pull off in video games.