So two days ago, catching many off-guard, the Flyers announced that they would buy-out Bryzgalov. Much speculated but never certain, the Flyers decided to plow ahead.
My read was that the Flyers wanted to buy out Bryz, but would not do so this offseason until they had an alternative locked up. Even if they want to give Mason significant playing time, they still need another goalie, and Bryz is still a decent quality goalie.
No need to beat dead horses, but Bryzgalov is coming off a decent season from a purely performance standpoint. The problem is his contract and his attitude. He has not been a difference maker, and no one wants to tolerate that circus for 7 more years of decent-but-not-great goaltending.
Then when you see quotes as in this piece, Bryzgalov seemed to be accelerating his own departure. He obviously hates the media here (with some justification), and he just doesn't want to fight the fight anymore to succeed here in a system of play that does not complement his skills well. All in all, even though I have been somewhat of a Bryz apologist, and recently wrote about the benefits of buying him out next summer, this is not a bad solution.
I also might feel slightly bad for Bryz, getting run out of town and the Flyers making the biggest buyout in NHL history to rid themselves of him, but consider he will effectively be paid $40m for 2 seasons by the Flyers. Even if he never plays in the NHL again, worse things could happen to someone.
Another factor I did not consider previously was the effect of carrying Bryz this season on the Flyers "tagging space". The issue there is that a team cannot exceed the present season's salary cap with contracts committed to the following year. If Bryz was still on the team, his cap hit would be "tagged" to next season's payroll, taking up space the Flyers might otherwise wish to allocate to new deals for Giroux, Couturier and Schenn. As it stands now, with Mesz and Timonen likely leaving, Bryz and Briere bought out, the Flyers only have $39m committed to the 2014-15 season, and thus have plenty of space to get those guys resigned during this coming season and protect themselves from RFA offer complications.
Goalie Alternatives
Now that the Flyers have a spot to fill, the fun part is evaluating replacement candidates. The presumption I will make for this analysis is the Flyers want to bring him above simple backup quality, and who will be capable of carrying the load if Mason sputters.
Luongo - The biggest name, first it needs to be said that trading for Luongo is a terrible idea. He has 9 seasons left at a cap hit of $5.33m. Giving up assets for the privilege of that contract is insane. If however the Canucks buy him out (which they clearly don't want to do, but may have no other choice), the Flyers may look into an opportunistic signing. If you could sign him for a relatively cheap and short contract (say $8m over 2 years), that could really pay off.
Nabokov - This name always seems to come up on my blog. It appears he will not resign with the Islanders. Now 37, he had a pretty good season for the Isles but a disappointing playoffs. A good option, if available for cheap.
Miller - Soon to be 33, a few seasons ago he seemed like a golden boy. I think his play slipped last season, and he appears to have worn out his welcome speaking his mind in Buffalo. He's got a big cap hit next season, and then will be a free agent. If I were the Flyers, I would not trade anything of value for another outspoken goalie who will be a free agent soon.
Emery - Another name that has been on this blog several times before. A free agent who did not play in the playoffs for the champion Hawks, a regular season line of 17-1, .922% and 3 SOs seems to confirm he is back from his injury concerns. Again, if cheap and brief, he might be a good signing and a good partner with Mason to compete for job.
Thomas - I'm not 100% sure what his contract status his after sitting out last season, but presuming he is a free agent, and one year deal for him would certainly be interesting. Now 39, he is only 2 years removed from a historic season, winning the Vezina, Conn Smythe and Stanley Cup. With he and Mason, the Flyers would certainly have a lot of athleticism in the crease.
Smith - He had a phenomenal season 2 years ago, but that appears to be an anomaly. Also, we've seen that a goalie succeeding on Phoenix may not mesh well under Laviolette's system. Pass.
Clearly the common theme among the candidates is that Flyers should be opportunistic, and not commit too many resources to the goaltending situation this offseason. Let Mason or someone else win the job, rather than chasing a white whale.
Opinions on NHL topics of the moment, but mostly on the Flyers.
Showing posts with label luongo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label luongo. Show all posts
Thursday, June 27, 2013
Thursday, January 10, 2013
Luongo???
The CBA is still an unsigned "tentative" agreement, training camps haven't started, and the Flyers are already at the center of a juicy rumor and potential goalie controversy.
Yesterday, a report gained some traction that the Flyers were interested in Luongo, whose potential move to Toronto has been dragging on for 8 or 9 years (or maybe it just seems that long). Holmgren immediately shot it down, but some TSN guys, foremostly host James Duthie, insists it's true. My first reaction was, what?
First of all, the fact that Holmgren denied any interest doesn't mean much. Taking a cue from Bobby Clarke, his word on trade denials is basically worthless. Still, why would the Flyers be interested??
Luongo is 33 years old and owed ~$47 million over the next 10 years, carrying a cap hit of $5.33 million. Bryzgalov is 32 and is owed $41 million over the next 8 years at a cap hit of $5.66. These are two of the biggest goalie contracts in the league. Let's have them both?
I think Luongo is generally regarded as the better goalie, but I'm not sure how significant a difference it would be. Both goalies are coming off disappointing seasons, and their ability to carry a team to a cup is being questioned.
Their 3 year performance record isn't very different either:
Bryzgalov:
2010 - 42-20-6, 2.29 GAA, .920 sv %, 2nd in Vezina voting
2011 - 36-20-10, 2.48 GAA, .921 sv %, 6th in Vezina voting
2012 - 33-16-7, 2.48 GAA, .909 sv %, not in Vezina voting
Luongo:
2010 - 40-22-4, 2.57 GAA, .913 sv %, 10th in Vezina voting
2011 - 38-15-7, 2.11 GAA, .928 sv %, 3rd in Vezina voting
2012 - 31-14-8, 2.51 GAA, .919 sv %, not in Vezina voting
It's interesting that Luongo and Bryzgalov were the only 2 goalies in the league to be in the Vezina voting in both 2010 and 2011, and then both dropped out in 2012. To Luongo's credit, if you expand that time window a little more you'll see Luongo being the Vezina runner-up in 2007 and finishing third 2004, and receiving votes in other seasons as well.
Either way, let's take this to mean Luongo is a slight upgrade to Bryzgalov right now. Is this worth giving up assets for? Frankly I have no idea what Luongo commands in a trade these days when he clearly has one foot out the door in Vancouver, but I wouldn't give up much for him if I were the Flyers for what amounts to a small marginal benefit (if the Flyers were still rolling out Bob and Leighton, the marginal benefit would be much larger).
Second, assuming the Flyers make an opportunistic deal at a cheap price, how would it work if he got here? Between his contract and his NMC, I don't think Bryzgalov can be traded, and he cannot be bought out until after the season. So you have Bryzgalov and Luongo trading starts competing for the starting job, and then loser of that competition is paid $25 million to go away after the season? Seems kind of insane to me.
It wouldn't surprise me if the Flyers poked around Luongo's availability, but I don't see the endgame here.
Yesterday, a report gained some traction that the Flyers were interested in Luongo, whose potential move to Toronto has been dragging on for 8 or 9 years (or maybe it just seems that long). Holmgren immediately shot it down, but some TSN guys, foremostly host James Duthie, insists it's true. My first reaction was, what?
First of all, the fact that Holmgren denied any interest doesn't mean much. Taking a cue from Bobby Clarke, his word on trade denials is basically worthless. Still, why would the Flyers be interested??
Luongo is 33 years old and owed ~$47 million over the next 10 years, carrying a cap hit of $5.33 million. Bryzgalov is 32 and is owed $41 million over the next 8 years at a cap hit of $5.66. These are two of the biggest goalie contracts in the league. Let's have them both?
I think Luongo is generally regarded as the better goalie, but I'm not sure how significant a difference it would be. Both goalies are coming off disappointing seasons, and their ability to carry a team to a cup is being questioned.
Their 3 year performance record isn't very different either:
Bryzgalov:
2010 - 42-20-6, 2.29 GAA, .920 sv %, 2nd in Vezina voting
2011 - 36-20-10, 2.48 GAA, .921 sv %, 6th in Vezina voting
2012 - 33-16-7, 2.48 GAA, .909 sv %, not in Vezina voting
Luongo:
2010 - 40-22-4, 2.57 GAA, .913 sv %, 10th in Vezina voting
2011 - 38-15-7, 2.11 GAA, .928 sv %, 3rd in Vezina voting
2012 - 31-14-8, 2.51 GAA, .919 sv %, not in Vezina voting
It's interesting that Luongo and Bryzgalov were the only 2 goalies in the league to be in the Vezina voting in both 2010 and 2011, and then both dropped out in 2012. To Luongo's credit, if you expand that time window a little more you'll see Luongo being the Vezina runner-up in 2007 and finishing third 2004, and receiving votes in other seasons as well.
Either way, let's take this to mean Luongo is a slight upgrade to Bryzgalov right now. Is this worth giving up assets for? Frankly I have no idea what Luongo commands in a trade these days when he clearly has one foot out the door in Vancouver, but I wouldn't give up much for him if I were the Flyers for what amounts to a small marginal benefit (if the Flyers were still rolling out Bob and Leighton, the marginal benefit would be much larger).
Second, assuming the Flyers make an opportunistic deal at a cheap price, how would it work if he got here? Between his contract and his NMC, I don't think Bryzgalov can be traded, and he cannot be bought out until after the season. So you have Bryzgalov and Luongo trading starts competing for the starting job, and then loser of that competition is paid $25 million to go away after the season? Seems kind of insane to me.
It wouldn't surprise me if the Flyers poked around Luongo's availability, but I don't see the endgame here.
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