So two days ago, catching many off-guard, the Flyers announced that they would buy-out Bryzgalov. Much speculated but never certain, the Flyers decided to plow ahead.
My read was that the Flyers wanted to buy out Bryz, but would not do so this offseason until they had an alternative locked up. Even if they want to give Mason significant playing time, they still need another goalie, and Bryz is still a decent quality goalie.
No need to beat dead horses, but Bryzgalov is coming off a decent season from a purely performance standpoint. The problem is his contract and his attitude. He has not been a difference maker, and no one wants to tolerate that circus for 7 more years of decent-but-not-great goaltending.
Then when you see quotes as in this piece, Bryzgalov seemed to be accelerating his own departure. He obviously hates the media here (with some justification), and he just doesn't want to fight the fight anymore to succeed here in a system of play that does not complement his skills well. All in all, even though I have been somewhat of a Bryz apologist, and recently wrote about the benefits of buying him out next summer, this is not a bad solution.
I also might feel slightly bad for Bryz, getting run out of town and the Flyers making the biggest buyout in NHL history to rid themselves of him, but consider he will effectively be paid $40m for 2 seasons by the Flyers. Even if he never plays in the NHL again, worse things could happen to someone.
Another factor I did not consider previously was the effect of carrying Bryz this season on the Flyers "tagging space". The issue there is that a team cannot exceed the present season's salary cap with contracts committed to the following year. If Bryz was still on the team, his cap hit would be "tagged" to next season's payroll, taking up space the Flyers might otherwise wish to allocate to new deals for Giroux, Couturier and Schenn. As it stands now, with Mesz and Timonen likely leaving, Bryz and Briere bought out, the Flyers only have $39m committed to the 2014-15 season, and thus have plenty of space to get those guys resigned during this coming season and protect themselves from RFA offer complications.
Goalie Alternatives
Now that the Flyers have a spot to fill, the fun part is evaluating replacement candidates. The presumption I will make for this analysis is the Flyers want to bring him above simple backup quality, and who will be capable of carrying the load if Mason sputters.
Luongo - The biggest name, first it needs to be said that trading for Luongo is a terrible idea. He has 9 seasons left at a cap hit of $5.33m. Giving up assets for the privilege of that contract is insane. If however the Canucks buy him out (which they clearly don't want to do, but may have no other choice), the Flyers may look into an opportunistic signing. If you could sign him for a relatively cheap and short contract (say $8m over 2 years), that could really pay off.
Nabokov - This name always seems to come up on my blog. It appears he will not resign with the Islanders. Now 37, he had a pretty good season for the Isles but a disappointing playoffs. A good option, if available for cheap.
Miller - Soon to be 33, a few seasons ago he seemed like a golden boy. I think his play slipped last season, and he appears to have worn out his welcome speaking his mind in Buffalo. He's got a big cap hit next season, and then will be a free agent. If I were the Flyers, I would not trade anything of value for another outspoken goalie who will be a free agent soon.
Emery - Another name that has been on this blog several times before. A free agent who did not play in the playoffs for the champion Hawks, a regular season line of 17-1, .922% and 3 SOs seems to confirm he is back from his injury concerns. Again, if cheap and brief, he might be a good signing and a good partner with Mason to compete for job.
Thomas - I'm not 100% sure what his contract status his after sitting out last season, but presuming he is a free agent, and one year deal for him would certainly be interesting. Now 39, he is only 2 years removed from a historic season, winning the Vezina, Conn Smythe and Stanley Cup. With he and Mason, the Flyers would certainly have a lot of athleticism in the crease.
Smith - He had a phenomenal season 2 years ago, but that appears to be an anomaly. Also, we've seen that a goalie succeeding on Phoenix may not mesh well under Laviolette's system. Pass.
Clearly the common theme among the candidates is that Flyers should be opportunistic, and not commit too many resources to the goaltending situation this offseason. Let Mason or someone else win the job, rather than chasing a white whale.
Opinions on NHL topics of the moment, but mostly on the Flyers.
Showing posts with label bryzgalov. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bryzgalov. Show all posts
Thursday, June 27, 2013
Wednesday, June 19, 2013
Rumor Commentary
After what has been a pretty depressing season, about which I saw little to post, it's fun to have things to wildly speculate upon! No team does offseason crazy like the Flyers. Maybe it hurts them in the long run, but they always put a competitive team on the ice and the moments of madness always keep it exciting for the fans.
Anyway, there's been a bunch of rumors popping up this week, and here's just a few comments.
#1 - Bryzgalov's agent says Holmgren told him Bryz won't be bought out this offseason. Holmgren says that's BS.
I've already written a little about a Bryzgalov buyout. I think the question is when, not if. I previously laid out the case for doing it next summer. Since then, I've warmed to certain scenarios for a buyout this summer. Either way, Holmgren told Jeff Carter's agent he wouldn't be traded, and then traded him a week later. Assuming Holmgren even gave Bryz's agent any assurances, I wouldn't put much stock in them. I would ignore this item and say a Bryz buyout this summer is very much on the table.
#2 - The Flyers are a front runner to trade for Jonathan Bernier; possible packages include Matt Read, or Couturier+11th pick.
Bernier is a 24 year old goalie. He was the first goalie taken in the 2006 draft, at 11 overall. Thus far, he's been stuck behind Quick in LA. Relatively small for a modern NHL goalie, he's very quick. He's excelled at the AHL level, has a .912% in 62 NHL appearances, and many scouts think he's ready to try for a #1 NHL job.
He's also a RFA this year, and the Kings are tight against the cap As a result, they are very vulnerable to an offer sheet and settling for meek draft pick compensation for losing him. Now the Kings are aggressively trying to trade him in the next few weeks before that happens.
In a general sense, I kind of like the idea of the Flyers going into next season with Bernier and Mason, two goalies with unquestionable talent, and letting the best man win. Neither is a sure thing after all. The Flyers must, however, draw the line on how much they are willing to pay for him.
First, Bernier wants a chance to start. I don't think there's many NHL teams that will trade for him and simply give him the #1 job, so an open competition with Mason might be the best he gets. I don't think he'd be unhappy with a trade to Philly.
Second, let's throw out the package reported by Carchidi; Cooter and the 11th pick. That is a terrible deal.
Third, the Read deal (or something like it) is reasonable. Read is a quality player, and can play across a team's top 9. Most likely, he's a 2/3 line wing in the NHL. What makes him tradeable is, that while he still seems inexperienced and up-and-coming, he is 27 years old. He's also a UFA after this season, and will be seeking a substantial raise from his current $900k deal. I'm not sure the Flyers can accommodate that. The problem is, the Flyers are already weak at forward, and there is no clear substitute to take his place.
Either way, the Flyers should not get sucked into a bidding war for Bernier. If the deal is there, take it and buy out Bryz. If not, walking away is just fine.
#3 - The Flyer are talking trade for Bobby Ryan, at a cost of Coburn and 11 pick
After some thought, I don't think this is a very good deal as presented. It's tempting for Flyers fans to part with Coburn, as he is coming off a poor season that ended in an injury, and he carries a significant cap hit of $4.5. What we have to remember is that he plays big minutes for the Flyers, and can flourish in the right situation.
With his size and skating, it is tempting to ask Coburn to do a lot, and I think that's where it went wrong for him this season. He's not Matt Carle, and his slapshot looks good, but is horrendously inaccurate. I could see him playing well with Streit though, in a simplified role. Let Streit attack and Coburn be the anchor of the pair. We might get to see the Coburn that looked so promising playing with Timonen a few years ago.
Furthermore, this is supposed to be a very good draft. It seems a slam dunk for the Flyers to take a good young defensemen with the 11 pick, which is unusually high for the Flyers, but Flyers fans shouldn't count on that either given their track record of taking the best player available (which they usually deem to be a forward). Still, the reality is that with or without Ryan, the Flyers are not cup contenders next season. Yes, they need help at forward, but this is not the way to do it.
Anyway, there's been a bunch of rumors popping up this week, and here's just a few comments.
#1 - Bryzgalov's agent says Holmgren told him Bryz won't be bought out this offseason. Holmgren says that's BS.
I've already written a little about a Bryzgalov buyout. I think the question is when, not if. I previously laid out the case for doing it next summer. Since then, I've warmed to certain scenarios for a buyout this summer. Either way, Holmgren told Jeff Carter's agent he wouldn't be traded, and then traded him a week later. Assuming Holmgren even gave Bryz's agent any assurances, I wouldn't put much stock in them. I would ignore this item and say a Bryz buyout this summer is very much on the table.
#2 - The Flyers are a front runner to trade for Jonathan Bernier; possible packages include Matt Read, or Couturier+11th pick.
Bernier is a 24 year old goalie. He was the first goalie taken in the 2006 draft, at 11 overall. Thus far, he's been stuck behind Quick in LA. Relatively small for a modern NHL goalie, he's very quick. He's excelled at the AHL level, has a .912% in 62 NHL appearances, and many scouts think he's ready to try for a #1 NHL job.
He's also a RFA this year, and the Kings are tight against the cap As a result, they are very vulnerable to an offer sheet and settling for meek draft pick compensation for losing him. Now the Kings are aggressively trying to trade him in the next few weeks before that happens.
In a general sense, I kind of like the idea of the Flyers going into next season with Bernier and Mason, two goalies with unquestionable talent, and letting the best man win. Neither is a sure thing after all. The Flyers must, however, draw the line on how much they are willing to pay for him.
First, Bernier wants a chance to start. I don't think there's many NHL teams that will trade for him and simply give him the #1 job, so an open competition with Mason might be the best he gets. I don't think he'd be unhappy with a trade to Philly.
Second, let's throw out the package reported by Carchidi; Cooter and the 11th pick. That is a terrible deal.
Third, the Read deal (or something like it) is reasonable. Read is a quality player, and can play across a team's top 9. Most likely, he's a 2/3 line wing in the NHL. What makes him tradeable is, that while he still seems inexperienced and up-and-coming, he is 27 years old. He's also a UFA after this season, and will be seeking a substantial raise from his current $900k deal. I'm not sure the Flyers can accommodate that. The problem is, the Flyers are already weak at forward, and there is no clear substitute to take his place.
Either way, the Flyers should not get sucked into a bidding war for Bernier. If the deal is there, take it and buy out Bryz. If not, walking away is just fine.
#3 - The Flyer are talking trade for Bobby Ryan, at a cost of Coburn and 11 pick
After some thought, I don't think this is a very good deal as presented. It's tempting for Flyers fans to part with Coburn, as he is coming off a poor season that ended in an injury, and he carries a significant cap hit of $4.5. What we have to remember is that he plays big minutes for the Flyers, and can flourish in the right situation.
With his size and skating, it is tempting to ask Coburn to do a lot, and I think that's where it went wrong for him this season. He's not Matt Carle, and his slapshot looks good, but is horrendously inaccurate. I could see him playing well with Streit though, in a simplified role. Let Streit attack and Coburn be the anchor of the pair. We might get to see the Coburn that looked so promising playing with Timonen a few years ago.
Furthermore, this is supposed to be a very good draft. It seems a slam dunk for the Flyers to take a good young defensemen with the 11 pick, which is unusually high for the Flyers, but Flyers fans shouldn't count on that either given their track record of taking the best player available (which they usually deem to be a forward). Still, the reality is that with or without Ryan, the Flyers are not cup contenders next season. Yes, they need help at forward, but this is not the way to do it.
Tuesday, June 18, 2013
Streit Agrees to Deal
Yesterday it was widely reported that the Flyers have a deal with Mark Streit for 4x$5.25m. Holmgren has denied there is any deal to report, but that is presumably because until a trade or buyout occurs, the Flyers don't have the cap space.
Is this a good deal?
Well, I'll start the analysis from this point: my hope for the offseason was to somehow parlay Matt Read into Keith Yandle. Yandle is an elite puck carrying defensemen. Great on the PP, skates all over the place, but not necessarily a stalwart defensively. The last two seasons, he plays about 22 minutes a night in Phoenix and has scored 21 goals and 52 assists to put him among the highest scoring defensemen in the league. He is 26 years old and has 3 years left at $5.25m.
Streit has a very similar scouting report. Skates well, carries the puck well, and is good on the PP. Also a bit weak defensively. The last 2 season he has played about 23 minutes a night for the Isles, and has scored 13 goals and 61 assists. He is 35 years old and apparently signed to an identical cap hit.
All things being equal, Yandle would be the preferred option. He is a little bigger and 9 years younger. Streit contract will be an "over-35" contract, meaning even if he retires his cap hit stays on the books. Otherwise, very similar players.
Of course all things are not equal, and Yandle has a high trade cost; Matt Read alone would not be enough to acquire him. Acquiring Yandle would probably require sacrificing an asset the Flyers really don't want to give up.
So maybe we should feel okay that the Flyers acquired the skillset they needed with no impact to their roster.
Here's a lineup projection presuming Pronger LTIR and Briere buyout:
Is this a good deal?
Well, I'll start the analysis from this point: my hope for the offseason was to somehow parlay Matt Read into Keith Yandle. Yandle is an elite puck carrying defensemen. Great on the PP, skates all over the place, but not necessarily a stalwart defensively. The last two seasons, he plays about 22 minutes a night in Phoenix and has scored 21 goals and 52 assists to put him among the highest scoring defensemen in the league. He is 26 years old and has 3 years left at $5.25m.
Streit has a very similar scouting report. Skates well, carries the puck well, and is good on the PP. Also a bit weak defensively. The last 2 season he has played about 23 minutes a night for the Isles, and has scored 13 goals and 61 assists. He is 35 years old and apparently signed to an identical cap hit.
All things being equal, Yandle would be the preferred option. He is a little bigger and 9 years younger. Streit contract will be an "over-35" contract, meaning even if he retires his cap hit stays on the books. Otherwise, very similar players.
Of course all things are not equal, and Yandle has a high trade cost; Matt Read alone would not be enough to acquire him. Acquiring Yandle would probably require sacrificing an asset the Flyers really don't want to give up.
So maybe we should feel okay that the Flyers acquired the skillset they needed with no impact to their roster.
Here's a lineup projection presuming Pronger LTIR and Briere buyout:
That lineup needs a top-9 forward, and they don't have much money left to sign one (let's not forget a lack of second line scoring was a major problem last year). I would not be surprised if the Flyers made significant adjustments to this lineup including buying out Bryz, and trading Read and Mesz to give Gustafsson a top-6 spot. I'll leave that question for another post though.
Tuesday, June 11, 2013
Bryz buyout? But when?
Bob McKenzie @TSNBobMcKenzie8 JunIt's not carved in stone, but in spite of what has been said in past, I expect PHI is likely to use compliance buyout on Ilya Bryzgalov.
Bob McKenzie @TSNBobMcKenzie8 JunAlso, PHI is in market for D and may be willing to move one of their young centres - B Schenn or Couturier - for the right deal.
And with that, a whole new round of discussion began.
I've already written that a Briere buyout is likely, but I have not written anything about use of the second buyout. I think most fans want to see it used on Bryzgalov, which may be a good idea.
Bryzgalov has 7 years left at $5.66 cap hit. At this point, it's not the cap hit that's the problem, it's the contract length. That is the 9th biggest cap hit among NHL goalies, and very close to the new contracts signed by Quick and Howard. Bryz hasn't been great, but he hasn't been terrible either, and paying an experienced goalie that number isn't unreasonable. If he had a year or two left at that number, you just let him play it out.
The problem is, I don't think the Flyers want to hitch their wagon to him for the next 7 years. He hasn't been a difference maker, has problems with the local media, and perhaps his teammates. Also, no one will take that contract in a trade, leaving a buyout the only option.
(For the purposes of this post, I am going to assume the Flyers have the financial means and will to pay Bryz to go away, which would be about $1.5m/year for about a dozen years)
If the Flyers decide to buy him out, they need another goalie. Handing Mason the starting job right now would be foolish.
As far UFAs go, this offseason Nik Backstrom, Evgeni Nabokov, Mike Smith, Ray Emery and Tim Thomas are available. Next offseason, potential options might be Lundqvist, Miller, Hiller, Halak, Vokoun and Crawford. Guys like Vokoun, Nabokov, Backstrom and Thomas are old and might be available at a reasonable cap hit on a short term deal. Lundqvist and Crawford could cost a mint (if even available).
The other option is a trade. There's already some talk about the Flyers' interest in Bernier in LA. My biggest concern with that route is that the Flyers don't have too many tradeable assets, and an asset used acquiring a goalie cannot be used to acquire a defensemen. Therefore I'm not crazy about the idea of trading Read to LA, as has been floated.
I think the Flyers should give Mason a full season to see how much resources they should devote in terms of cap space and trade assets to solidify the goalie situation. if he stinks, then you do what you gotta do, but if he seizes the job, problem solved. Therefore I lean towards buying out Bryzgalov next offseason, not this offseason.
The only wrinkle to that is the Flyers want to try Nabokov short term (who is is still an above average goalie), or roll the dice with Thomas or Emery. (Hey, this discussion of Emery (1, 2) and Nabokov sounds familiar...).
So my bottom line is, I'd probably buy out Bryz next summer, but not this one.
Next up, McKenzie's second tweet....
Friday, May 10, 2013
Get Your Story Straight
This week, Bobrovsky was named as a finalist for the Vezina trophy. Many believe him to be the favorite. Why can't the Flyers get young goalies like this?
Actually, it's basically time to cue the hand-wringing of Flyers fans and writers. The predictable reactions are "I knew we shouldn't have traded him!", or "the Flyers are a joke of an organization!" Hand-wringing aside, what really happened?
The thing about having a blog like this is that there's no hiding your past statements. Indeed, most of my reason for writing this blog is just to get my own story straight. Let's recap events:
2010-11 season - The Flyers sign Bobrovsky, and by most accounts he is destined for the AHL. Instead he impresses in the preseason and Leighton is awful, and he becomes the starter. He has the job heading down the stretch run, but after a shocking run of results, he gets yanked for good in the playoffs. At the time, I passionately argued that he was not ready to lead a winning team. I do not regret a word of that.
2011 offseason - Given the absolute goaltending debacle of the playoffs (using 3 goalies, pulling your starter 5 TIMES in 11 games), the Flyers needed to make a move in net. I argued then, and still believe now, it would've been insane to give Bobrovsky the keys the team at the time. My personal plan was to acquire Nabokov on a short term contract, giving the team a proven #1 and allowing Bobrovsky to develop as the backup. (Or alternatively, sniff around and try to lowball Vokoun, who in fact signed for very little with Washington). Instead, the Flyers went big and acquired Bryzgalov. With Bryz in the fold on a 9-year deal, I would've traded Bobrovsky right then because I didn't see a future for him here anymore.
2011-2012 season - Bryzgalov had a rough season, and Bobrovsky had a few stretches as starter. He didn't run with it, and ended the season with a significantly worse stat line than Bryz. Either way, Bryz wasn't going anywhere, and I again thought they should trade Bobrovsky since he had no future here.
2012 offseason - Ultimately, the Flyers traded him for a 2nd and two 4th round picks, which was more than I thought he would fetch as his trade value declined after his mediocre sophomore year. At the time, I remarked there was no way the Flyers would get a fairly high first round pick for him, as the Avs gave up for Varlamov in the 2011 offseason. He reminded me of Nittymaki, who was capable of enticing play at times (MVP of 2006 Winter Olympics), but never proved he could be a long term #1 option.
2013 strike season - Well, we know what happened here.
So what's my story? My story is that no-way no-how was Bob ready to be the #1 after the 2011 playoff debacle. I thought the Flyers should sign a veteran goalie to be the #1 and give Bob time as backup for another year or two. Instead, we got Bryzgalov and a 9 year deal. After that happened, I didn't see a future as a Flyer for him.
In the last few days, Frank Seravalli has tweeted that the Avs wanted Bob MORE than they wanted Varlamov in summer 2011. I find that a little hard to believe, but if the Avs did offer their 2012 first round pick for Bob, the Flyers were fools not to take it with Bryz already signed long term.
Either way, the Flyers traded him the following offseason for a decent but not overwhelming return. I did not expect this season from him, and it will be interesting to see how he performs next year in a full length season as the undisputed #1.
I'm sticking to my story that once Bryz was signed, Bob's fate as a Flyers was sealed. This very well may turn out to be a big mistake long term, but I will call bullshit on people who cry "we should've given him the job in summer 2011 and rode it out!"
Actually, it's basically time to cue the hand-wringing of Flyers fans and writers. The predictable reactions are "I knew we shouldn't have traded him!", or "the Flyers are a joke of an organization!" Hand-wringing aside, what really happened?
The thing about having a blog like this is that there's no hiding your past statements. Indeed, most of my reason for writing this blog is just to get my own story straight. Let's recap events:
2010-11 season - The Flyers sign Bobrovsky, and by most accounts he is destined for the AHL. Instead he impresses in the preseason and Leighton is awful, and he becomes the starter. He has the job heading down the stretch run, but after a shocking run of results, he gets yanked for good in the playoffs. At the time, I passionately argued that he was not ready to lead a winning team. I do not regret a word of that.
2011 offseason - Given the absolute goaltending debacle of the playoffs (using 3 goalies, pulling your starter 5 TIMES in 11 games), the Flyers needed to make a move in net. I argued then, and still believe now, it would've been insane to give Bobrovsky the keys the team at the time. My personal plan was to acquire Nabokov on a short term contract, giving the team a proven #1 and allowing Bobrovsky to develop as the backup. (Or alternatively, sniff around and try to lowball Vokoun, who in fact signed for very little with Washington). Instead, the Flyers went big and acquired Bryzgalov. With Bryz in the fold on a 9-year deal, I would've traded Bobrovsky right then because I didn't see a future for him here anymore.
2011-2012 season - Bryzgalov had a rough season, and Bobrovsky had a few stretches as starter. He didn't run with it, and ended the season with a significantly worse stat line than Bryz. Either way, Bryz wasn't going anywhere, and I again thought they should trade Bobrovsky since he had no future here.
2012 offseason - Ultimately, the Flyers traded him for a 2nd and two 4th round picks, which was more than I thought he would fetch as his trade value declined after his mediocre sophomore year. At the time, I remarked there was no way the Flyers would get a fairly high first round pick for him, as the Avs gave up for Varlamov in the 2011 offseason. He reminded me of Nittymaki, who was capable of enticing play at times (MVP of 2006 Winter Olympics), but never proved he could be a long term #1 option.
2013 strike season - Well, we know what happened here.
So what's my story? My story is that no-way no-how was Bob ready to be the #1 after the 2011 playoff debacle. I thought the Flyers should sign a veteran goalie to be the #1 and give Bob time as backup for another year or two. Instead, we got Bryzgalov and a 9 year deal. After that happened, I didn't see a future as a Flyer for him.
In the last few days, Frank Seravalli has tweeted that the Avs wanted Bob MORE than they wanted Varlamov in summer 2011. I find that a little hard to believe, but if the Avs did offer their 2012 first round pick for Bob, the Flyers were fools not to take it with Bryz already signed long term.
Either way, the Flyers traded him the following offseason for a decent but not overwhelming return. I did not expect this season from him, and it will be interesting to see how he performs next year in a full length season as the undisputed #1.
I'm sticking to my story that once Bryz was signed, Bob's fate as a Flyers was sealed. This very well may turn out to be a big mistake long term, but I will call bullshit on people who cry "we should've given him the job in summer 2011 and rode it out!"
Sunday, March 10, 2013
Reality Setting In
So I've been saying it for over a month, but this is not a good hockey team. Apparently it took many fans and media this long to come to this conclusion, but now panic and hand-wringing abounds.
The Flyers' "rivalry" week against top eastern teams has been a decisive failure. The Flyers enjoyed first period leads of 2-1 and 4-1 respectively against the Rangers and Penguins, but then were outscored 7-0 in the remainders of those games. Against the Bruins, the Flyers never got off the mark and took a meek 3-0 loss.
Many things are going wrong. The players appear to have given up on Laviolette. Bryzgalov has not been sharp. Couturier's confidence is extremely low. Overall frustration grows. While I will look at some of these issues in more detail in upcoming posts, suffice it to say things are looking quite bleak.
If there's any question as to how this season will progress, consider these cold hard numbers.
--The last few years, it has taken approximately 1.12 points per game to earn a playoff spot in the east. In this shortened 48 game season, that equals 53/54 points.
--The Flyers currently have 23 points in 26 games. This equals .88 points per game, which puts the Flyers 12th out 15 teams in the East.
--To reach 53 points, the Flyers must earn 30 points in their final 22 games, or 1.36 points per game. This is equivalent to Pittsburgh's current record, 3rd best in the East.
Does anyone think this team is capable of performing as the third best team in the east the remainder of the season? I didn't think so. This team is not making the playoffs.
The Flyers' "rivalry" week against top eastern teams has been a decisive failure. The Flyers enjoyed first period leads of 2-1 and 4-1 respectively against the Rangers and Penguins, but then were outscored 7-0 in the remainders of those games. Against the Bruins, the Flyers never got off the mark and took a meek 3-0 loss.
Many things are going wrong. The players appear to have given up on Laviolette. Bryzgalov has not been sharp. Couturier's confidence is extremely low. Overall frustration grows. While I will look at some of these issues in more detail in upcoming posts, suffice it to say things are looking quite bleak.
If there's any question as to how this season will progress, consider these cold hard numbers.
--The last few years, it has taken approximately 1.12 points per game to earn a playoff spot in the east. In this shortened 48 game season, that equals 53/54 points.
--The Flyers currently have 23 points in 26 games. This equals .88 points per game, which puts the Flyers 12th out 15 teams in the East.
--To reach 53 points, the Flyers must earn 30 points in their final 22 games, or 1.36 points per game. This is equivalent to Pittsburgh's current record, 3rd best in the East.
Does anyone think this team is capable of performing as the third best team in the east the remainder of the season? I didn't think so. This team is not making the playoffs.
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
What's Hot, What's Not
Today I'm going to pretend I'm a 90s supermarket tabloid, and quickly cover many subjects in a peurile hot list.
What's Hot: Jake Voracek. Everyone has taken note of his recent points explosion and NHL player of the week award, though he's been the Flyers best player for a few weeks now. His season reminds me of Hartnell last year; started out pretty rough (0 goals and 2 assists in his first 7 games) and fans called him out before having a torrid stretch for a few games. Hartnell played that out into a full season of excellence scoring at the rate of a goal every other game the rest of the season. Similarly, Voracek showed up for the season overweight, and started out with only 3 points in 8 games, but has 18 points in 13 games since. Voracek has always been a hardworker on the ice during games, but I think there was some perception in Columbus that his off-ice habits weren't the best. Either way, hopefully this is a true career turning point and Voracek becomes a point a game player, which I wasn't sure would ever happen.
What's Not: Ilya Bryzgalov. He started out great, but has been slowly but steadily slipping. He's played an absurd amount of games, and his game is showing cracks. He's fighting in there, but he's increasingly sloppy in angles and is leaking stoppable goals. Too bad the Flyers back-ups don't offer much relief.
What's Hot: The Flyers first PP unit. This unit is moving the puck with confidence and scoring goals. When the Flyers win, it's usually because this unit has come up with key goals.
What's Not: The Flyers second PP unit. These guys are still pretty hopeless.
What's Hot: Brayden Schenn. I won't say he's been tearing it up with irresistible play, but his 15 points in 14 February games almost matches his 18 for the entirety of last season. That's progress.
What's Not: Trading for veterans or rentals. I've said it before and I'll say it again, the Flyers this year are not a great team, and they are not a player away from being a cup contender. This doesn't rule out all trades, but trading youth and picks for veteran rentals is not wise. Holmgren, apparently, can't help himself from trading away draft picks, and he re-acquired Simon Gagne yesterday for a 4th round pick (a 3rd rounder if Flyers make the playoffs, which I'm sure Holmgren is planning to do). Mind you, Gagne is a pretty old and fragile 33, only playing 34 games for the Kings last year and has been a healthy scratch their last 4 games. He's still got speed and smarts, but he doesn't go to scoring areas anymore. I suspect the Flyers will put him on the 2nd PP unit mentioned above and let him try to snipe a few though.
The trade winds are blowing around the Flyers for sure. I just hope Homer doesn't lose his head and trade for a rental. If it's a restructuring trade for a young defensemen, I would give up some quality as it suits both long and short term needs. If it's trading for an aging UFA to-be to squeeze a little more out of this year's squad, that is misguided. Briere rumors have started, and that could make sense as he's not been a big regular season performer for the Flyers, but he has been absolutely money in the playoffs, and he's only owed $5 million in real dollars over the next two seasons. That should interest other teams. Trading Couturier on the hand (who I'm sure other teams will ask for) will give me shit-fits, although I'll allow an exception if it's for a young defensemen who projects as a top pair guy.
Until then, look for the Flyers to scrape out wins on the backs of Voracek, their PP and Bryzgalov. If any one of those factors takes the night off, it's probably not going to be a good night for the Flyers.
What's Hot: Jake Voracek. Everyone has taken note of his recent points explosion and NHL player of the week award, though he's been the Flyers best player for a few weeks now. His season reminds me of Hartnell last year; started out pretty rough (0 goals and 2 assists in his first 7 games) and fans called him out before having a torrid stretch for a few games. Hartnell played that out into a full season of excellence scoring at the rate of a goal every other game the rest of the season. Similarly, Voracek showed up for the season overweight, and started out with only 3 points in 8 games, but has 18 points in 13 games since. Voracek has always been a hardworker on the ice during games, but I think there was some perception in Columbus that his off-ice habits weren't the best. Either way, hopefully this is a true career turning point and Voracek becomes a point a game player, which I wasn't sure would ever happen.
What's Not: Ilya Bryzgalov. He started out great, but has been slowly but steadily slipping. He's played an absurd amount of games, and his game is showing cracks. He's fighting in there, but he's increasingly sloppy in angles and is leaking stoppable goals. Too bad the Flyers back-ups don't offer much relief.
What's Hot: The Flyers first PP unit. This unit is moving the puck with confidence and scoring goals. When the Flyers win, it's usually because this unit has come up with key goals.
What's Not: The Flyers second PP unit. These guys are still pretty hopeless.
What's Hot: Brayden Schenn. I won't say he's been tearing it up with irresistible play, but his 15 points in 14 February games almost matches his 18 for the entirety of last season. That's progress.
What's Not: Trading for veterans or rentals. I've said it before and I'll say it again, the Flyers this year are not a great team, and they are not a player away from being a cup contender. This doesn't rule out all trades, but trading youth and picks for veteran rentals is not wise. Holmgren, apparently, can't help himself from trading away draft picks, and he re-acquired Simon Gagne yesterday for a 4th round pick (a 3rd rounder if Flyers make the playoffs, which I'm sure Holmgren is planning to do). Mind you, Gagne is a pretty old and fragile 33, only playing 34 games for the Kings last year and has been a healthy scratch their last 4 games. He's still got speed and smarts, but he doesn't go to scoring areas anymore. I suspect the Flyers will put him on the 2nd PP unit mentioned above and let him try to snipe a few though.
The trade winds are blowing around the Flyers for sure. I just hope Homer doesn't lose his head and trade for a rental. If it's a restructuring trade for a young defensemen, I would give up some quality as it suits both long and short term needs. If it's trading for an aging UFA to-be to squeeze a little more out of this year's squad, that is misguided. Briere rumors have started, and that could make sense as he's not been a big regular season performer for the Flyers, but he has been absolutely money in the playoffs, and he's only owed $5 million in real dollars over the next two seasons. That should interest other teams. Trading Couturier on the hand (who I'm sure other teams will ask for) will give me shit-fits, although I'll allow an exception if it's for a young defensemen who projects as a top pair guy.
Until then, look for the Flyers to scrape out wins on the backs of Voracek, their PP and Bryzgalov. If any one of those factors takes the night off, it's probably not going to be a good night for the Flyers.
Thursday, February 14, 2013
Flyers Finding Their Niche
I have written that this year's Flyers really aren't all that good a team, and I haven't seen anything to make me change my mind. They're not contenders, but they are finding their niche as a bubble playoff team.
After a pretty rough start, the Flyers took 7 of 8 points from a 4 game homestand. The wins were hardly commanding victories, but they scrapped out the wins against other bubble teams. They followed that up with a humbling loss in Toronto, before a gritty win in Winnipeg.
The lesson learned from this stretch is we've seen how the Flyers have to win games this year. They don't have the firepower to outscore teams like last year; 4 and 5 goal performances will be rare. Bryzgalov is playing excellent however, as he is tracking the puck very well, and really battling and recovering better. The Flyers also are doing more to collapse around the net in ways they desperately needed to last year.
The Flyers can get some wins this year in this fashion, but it's all pretty fragile. For one, this team is completely dependent on Bryzgalov (hard to believe we're saying that about Bryzgalov after last year, or the Flyers in general, well, ever). Partially because Bryzgalov has been very good, and partially because the backup goalie situation is so lousy.
It's also fragile because of the youth up front. Giroux is looking overwhelmed with Hartnell and Jagr out of the lineup. Recently, Read, Voracek and Schenn have stepped up their play, but who knows how that will keep up. It will be a struggle all season, but hopefully Hartsy and Mesz will be back relatively soon, which will help.
Speak of Jagr...
Jagr is one of many recently departed Flyers doing very well thus far. Jagr has become a key piece on offense for Dallas, and is leading the team with 11 points in 13 games. The Flyers are missing him this year more than I expected. Also;
-Matt Carle is playing big minutes in TB (which shouldn't be surprising) and already has 2 goals. The other key departure for the Flyers this year.
-JVR has 8 goals in 13 games, a pretty stark change from the 11 he scored in 43 for the Flyers last year. Many of these have been of the tap-in variety, finishing off others' plays (he only has 2 assists), but there's nothing wrong with that. He's playing well and with confidence, but there's no need for Flyers fans to panic about that trade at the moment.
-Similar to JVR, Jeff Carter has 6 goals (and only 1 assist) in 11 games for the offensively challenged Kings.
Put all this together, and you can see all the offense that has gone out the door from Philadelphia. That kind of goal-hawking from JVR and Carter is certainly a missing ingredient from this year's Flyers roster.
But Don't Panic
The Flyers have obvious needs, which my man Bill Meltzer accurately describes and prioritizes; "1) a puck-moving defenseman who can play 20+ minutes per game, 2) a scoring winger who possesses both good size and a consistent willingness to work in the "greasy" areas of the ice (though I might go a little more towards high-end skill players who snipe, in the mold of Perry or Iginla mentioned below), 3) a backup goaltending upgrade in case of a long-term injury to Ilya Bryzgalov, 4) a fourth-line center who is strong on defensive zone face-offs." http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=49290#.UR0bGqWyD9l
Despite this, it DOES NOT make sense for the Flyers to go chasing down trades. For one, they are not a contender this year, so trading more youth and picks is a bad idea. The Flyers have very few high-end prospects, and are generally depleted of prospects outside the NHL from trading away so many picks under Holmgen. Second, these are tough holes to fill, as evidenced by the Timonen contract signed last week.
Clearly the Flyers looked around and saw Timonen was their only option for a number 1 defensemen next year. He is old, and isn't the defensemen he used to be, but the Flyers renewed him at a very high cap number (shockingly high at first glance) because they had no other choice. After accepting that reality, my only regret is that they couldn't get Kimmo to resign for say $4.5m instead of 6. $1.5m in cap space will make a difference if the Flyers pursue Iginla or Perry as free agents after this season...
After a pretty rough start, the Flyers took 7 of 8 points from a 4 game homestand. The wins were hardly commanding victories, but they scrapped out the wins against other bubble teams. They followed that up with a humbling loss in Toronto, before a gritty win in Winnipeg.
The lesson learned from this stretch is we've seen how the Flyers have to win games this year. They don't have the firepower to outscore teams like last year; 4 and 5 goal performances will be rare. Bryzgalov is playing excellent however, as he is tracking the puck very well, and really battling and recovering better. The Flyers also are doing more to collapse around the net in ways they desperately needed to last year.
The Flyers can get some wins this year in this fashion, but it's all pretty fragile. For one, this team is completely dependent on Bryzgalov (hard to believe we're saying that about Bryzgalov after last year, or the Flyers in general, well, ever). Partially because Bryzgalov has been very good, and partially because the backup goalie situation is so lousy.
It's also fragile because of the youth up front. Giroux is looking overwhelmed with Hartnell and Jagr out of the lineup. Recently, Read, Voracek and Schenn have stepped up their play, but who knows how that will keep up. It will be a struggle all season, but hopefully Hartsy and Mesz will be back relatively soon, which will help.
Speak of Jagr...
Jagr is one of many recently departed Flyers doing very well thus far. Jagr has become a key piece on offense for Dallas, and is leading the team with 11 points in 13 games. The Flyers are missing him this year more than I expected. Also;
-Matt Carle is playing big minutes in TB (which shouldn't be surprising) and already has 2 goals. The other key departure for the Flyers this year.
-JVR has 8 goals in 13 games, a pretty stark change from the 11 he scored in 43 for the Flyers last year. Many of these have been of the tap-in variety, finishing off others' plays (he only has 2 assists), but there's nothing wrong with that. He's playing well and with confidence, but there's no need for Flyers fans to panic about that trade at the moment.
-Similar to JVR, Jeff Carter has 6 goals (and only 1 assist) in 11 games for the offensively challenged Kings.
Put all this together, and you can see all the offense that has gone out the door from Philadelphia. That kind of goal-hawking from JVR and Carter is certainly a missing ingredient from this year's Flyers roster.
But Don't Panic
The Flyers have obvious needs, which my man Bill Meltzer accurately describes and prioritizes; "1) a puck-moving defenseman who can play 20+ minutes per game, 2) a scoring winger who possesses both good size and a consistent willingness to work in the "greasy" areas of the ice (though I might go a little more towards high-end skill players who snipe, in the mold of Perry or Iginla mentioned below), 3) a backup goaltending upgrade in case of a long-term injury to Ilya Bryzgalov, 4) a fourth-line center who is strong on defensive zone face-offs." http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=49290#.UR0bGqWyD9l
Despite this, it DOES NOT make sense for the Flyers to go chasing down trades. For one, they are not a contender this year, so trading more youth and picks is a bad idea. The Flyers have very few high-end prospects, and are generally depleted of prospects outside the NHL from trading away so many picks under Holmgen. Second, these are tough holes to fill, as evidenced by the Timonen contract signed last week.
Clearly the Flyers looked around and saw Timonen was their only option for a number 1 defensemen next year. He is old, and isn't the defensemen he used to be, but the Flyers renewed him at a very high cap number (shockingly high at first glance) because they had no other choice. After accepting that reality, my only regret is that they couldn't get Kimmo to resign for say $4.5m instead of 6. $1.5m in cap space will make a difference if the Flyers pursue Iginla or Perry as free agents after this season...
Friday, January 18, 2013
And We're Back...
Tomorrow, it's finally back to hockey. It should be a pretty fun home opener against the Pens. The Pens of course are coming off their first round loss to the Flyers last year, in which their contempt for the Flyers caused them to completely lose their nerve. 30 goals against in 6 games was the result. Remarkably, this will be the Pens 8th straight game against the Flyers, with no other opponents in between.
But enough about the Pens. The Flyers won't have any time to get in game shape, as its trial by fire with an incredibly busy schedule, kicking off with 5 games in 8 days. Fortunately, there is a lot of consistency with last year's roster, and most player's on the roster have been playing in Europe or the minors. However, with Briere out and Meszaros questionable, the exact lineup is still a work in progress. It appears the Flyers will start the season with the following:
The big questions on my mind;
-That lineup is scary young down the middle. At 25, Giroux is the old man. Cooter, Laughton and Wellwood only have 136 career NHL games between the 3 of them!! Things will look a little different once Briere comes back (with his 921 games played), but in some ways, he is the least reliable of all of them.
-Will Scott Laughton stick around? He was hardly a prized draft pick, but he looks to be one of the few players from this year's draft to play in the NHL this year. After he plays in 5 games, the Flyers must send him back to the juniors, or lose a year on his entry-level contract. Due the condensed schedule, that is only 8 days.
-How much can be expected from Cooter and Schenner? They put up solid numbers on a dreadful Phantoms team in the AHL. That should be expected from top prospects, and basically they were the entire offense for the team. Cooter is still only 19 however. I think it's time for Schenn to live up to his billing from the last few years. I recall that I thought he was the Flyers's best player in game 1 versus Pitt last year, until Asham ran him and slowed him down.
-Who will be the 6th defensemen? Right now it's newly signed Kurtis Foster, who looked to be having a promising career until it was derailed by injuries over the last few seasons. I wouldn't mind seeing the big man wind-up on the PP a few times though. A total x-factor is the possibility of signing Redden. He's been parked in the AHL the last 2 years due to his enormous contract, but the Rangers have now bought him out and he's free to sign anywhere, likely on a one year deal. He's 35 now, and I'm not sure how much he has left, but I presume he could fit in on several teams' bottom pair. I don't know how real the Flyers interest in him may be, but they sniff around everything and there's not much to lose with a one-year deal. Either way we'll find out today. If he does sign, he'll battle it out with Foster for the #6 spot, and Gervais will be the 8th defensemen.
-Can Simmonds match the pace of his career high in goals? Can Hartnell match the pace of his career high in goals? Can Read avoid the sophomore slump? I'll say yes, probably slightly off, and yes.
-Is Bryzgalov focused and ready? It's not unusual for big ticket signings to struggle in their first season in a new town. No doubt, Bryz bungled it in many ways. Still, I think he can turn it around and be a top goalie again. He didn't impress as a third wheel in the KHL during the lockout, and it seems he was never really focused there honestly. It won't all be smooth sailing, but I think he'll have a solid season. If not, I'm not sure what the Flyers will do. Lure Tim Thomas out of his sabbatical?
-Will Laviolette tighten things up defensively? I wrote about this last year, and I was hardly the only one to point it out. This year, it appears that Snider expects the team to tighten up on defense, and help Bryz more. I don't know if they're going to do that, but I think it would be a good idea.
The Flyers are saddled in the toughest division and hockey. The Rangers and Pens are probably the two biggest favorites in the East, and the Devils are coming off a trip to the finals. Expectations for the Flyers won't be as high, and maybe that's a good thing. Either way, it'll be interesting...
But enough about the Pens. The Flyers won't have any time to get in game shape, as its trial by fire with an incredibly busy schedule, kicking off with 5 games in 8 days. Fortunately, there is a lot of consistency with last year's roster, and most player's on the roster have been playing in Europe or the minors. However, with Briere out and Meszaros questionable, the exact lineup is still a work in progress. It appears the Flyers will start the season with the following:
The big questions on my mind;
-That lineup is scary young down the middle. At 25, Giroux is the old man. Cooter, Laughton and Wellwood only have 136 career NHL games between the 3 of them!! Things will look a little different once Briere comes back (with his 921 games played), but in some ways, he is the least reliable of all of them.
-Will Scott Laughton stick around? He was hardly a prized draft pick, but he looks to be one of the few players from this year's draft to play in the NHL this year. After he plays in 5 games, the Flyers must send him back to the juniors, or lose a year on his entry-level contract. Due the condensed schedule, that is only 8 days.
-How much can be expected from Cooter and Schenner? They put up solid numbers on a dreadful Phantoms team in the AHL. That should be expected from top prospects, and basically they were the entire offense for the team. Cooter is still only 19 however. I think it's time for Schenn to live up to his billing from the last few years. I recall that I thought he was the Flyers's best player in game 1 versus Pitt last year, until Asham ran him and slowed him down.
-Who will be the 6th defensemen? Right now it's newly signed Kurtis Foster, who looked to be having a promising career until it was derailed by injuries over the last few seasons. I wouldn't mind seeing the big man wind-up on the PP a few times though. A total x-factor is the possibility of signing Redden. He's been parked in the AHL the last 2 years due to his enormous contract, but the Rangers have now bought him out and he's free to sign anywhere, likely on a one year deal. He's 35 now, and I'm not sure how much he has left, but I presume he could fit in on several teams' bottom pair. I don't know how real the Flyers interest in him may be, but they sniff around everything and there's not much to lose with a one-year deal. Either way we'll find out today. If he does sign, he'll battle it out with Foster for the #6 spot, and Gervais will be the 8th defensemen.
-Can Simmonds match the pace of his career high in goals? Can Hartnell match the pace of his career high in goals? Can Read avoid the sophomore slump? I'll say yes, probably slightly off, and yes.
-Is Bryzgalov focused and ready? It's not unusual for big ticket signings to struggle in their first season in a new town. No doubt, Bryz bungled it in many ways. Still, I think he can turn it around and be a top goalie again. He didn't impress as a third wheel in the KHL during the lockout, and it seems he was never really focused there honestly. It won't all be smooth sailing, but I think he'll have a solid season. If not, I'm not sure what the Flyers will do. Lure Tim Thomas out of his sabbatical?
-Will Laviolette tighten things up defensively? I wrote about this last year, and I was hardly the only one to point it out. This year, it appears that Snider expects the team to tighten up on defense, and help Bryz more. I don't know if they're going to do that, but I think it would be a good idea.
The Flyers are saddled in the toughest division and hockey. The Rangers and Pens are probably the two biggest favorites in the East, and the Devils are coming off a trip to the finals. Expectations for the Flyers won't be as high, and maybe that's a good thing. Either way, it'll be interesting...
Thursday, January 10, 2013
Luongo???
The CBA is still an unsigned "tentative" agreement, training camps haven't started, and the Flyers are already at the center of a juicy rumor and potential goalie controversy.
Yesterday, a report gained some traction that the Flyers were interested in Luongo, whose potential move to Toronto has been dragging on for 8 or 9 years (or maybe it just seems that long). Holmgren immediately shot it down, but some TSN guys, foremostly host James Duthie, insists it's true. My first reaction was, what?
First of all, the fact that Holmgren denied any interest doesn't mean much. Taking a cue from Bobby Clarke, his word on trade denials is basically worthless. Still, why would the Flyers be interested??
Luongo is 33 years old and owed ~$47 million over the next 10 years, carrying a cap hit of $5.33 million. Bryzgalov is 32 and is owed $41 million over the next 8 years at a cap hit of $5.66. These are two of the biggest goalie contracts in the league. Let's have them both?
I think Luongo is generally regarded as the better goalie, but I'm not sure how significant a difference it would be. Both goalies are coming off disappointing seasons, and their ability to carry a team to a cup is being questioned.
Their 3 year performance record isn't very different either:
Bryzgalov:
2010 - 42-20-6, 2.29 GAA, .920 sv %, 2nd in Vezina voting
2011 - 36-20-10, 2.48 GAA, .921 sv %, 6th in Vezina voting
2012 - 33-16-7, 2.48 GAA, .909 sv %, not in Vezina voting
Luongo:
2010 - 40-22-4, 2.57 GAA, .913 sv %, 10th in Vezina voting
2011 - 38-15-7, 2.11 GAA, .928 sv %, 3rd in Vezina voting
2012 - 31-14-8, 2.51 GAA, .919 sv %, not in Vezina voting
It's interesting that Luongo and Bryzgalov were the only 2 goalies in the league to be in the Vezina voting in both 2010 and 2011, and then both dropped out in 2012. To Luongo's credit, if you expand that time window a little more you'll see Luongo being the Vezina runner-up in 2007 and finishing third 2004, and receiving votes in other seasons as well.
Either way, let's take this to mean Luongo is a slight upgrade to Bryzgalov right now. Is this worth giving up assets for? Frankly I have no idea what Luongo commands in a trade these days when he clearly has one foot out the door in Vancouver, but I wouldn't give up much for him if I were the Flyers for what amounts to a small marginal benefit (if the Flyers were still rolling out Bob and Leighton, the marginal benefit would be much larger).
Second, assuming the Flyers make an opportunistic deal at a cheap price, how would it work if he got here? Between his contract and his NMC, I don't think Bryzgalov can be traded, and he cannot be bought out until after the season. So you have Bryzgalov and Luongo trading starts competing for the starting job, and then loser of that competition is paid $25 million to go away after the season? Seems kind of insane to me.
It wouldn't surprise me if the Flyers poked around Luongo's availability, but I don't see the endgame here.
Yesterday, a report gained some traction that the Flyers were interested in Luongo, whose potential move to Toronto has been dragging on for 8 or 9 years (or maybe it just seems that long). Holmgren immediately shot it down, but some TSN guys, foremostly host James Duthie, insists it's true. My first reaction was, what?
First of all, the fact that Holmgren denied any interest doesn't mean much. Taking a cue from Bobby Clarke, his word on trade denials is basically worthless. Still, why would the Flyers be interested??
Luongo is 33 years old and owed ~$47 million over the next 10 years, carrying a cap hit of $5.33 million. Bryzgalov is 32 and is owed $41 million over the next 8 years at a cap hit of $5.66. These are two of the biggest goalie contracts in the league. Let's have them both?
I think Luongo is generally regarded as the better goalie, but I'm not sure how significant a difference it would be. Both goalies are coming off disappointing seasons, and their ability to carry a team to a cup is being questioned.
Their 3 year performance record isn't very different either:
Bryzgalov:
2010 - 42-20-6, 2.29 GAA, .920 sv %, 2nd in Vezina voting
2011 - 36-20-10, 2.48 GAA, .921 sv %, 6th in Vezina voting
2012 - 33-16-7, 2.48 GAA, .909 sv %, not in Vezina voting
Luongo:
2010 - 40-22-4, 2.57 GAA, .913 sv %, 10th in Vezina voting
2011 - 38-15-7, 2.11 GAA, .928 sv %, 3rd in Vezina voting
2012 - 31-14-8, 2.51 GAA, .919 sv %, not in Vezina voting
It's interesting that Luongo and Bryzgalov were the only 2 goalies in the league to be in the Vezina voting in both 2010 and 2011, and then both dropped out in 2012. To Luongo's credit, if you expand that time window a little more you'll see Luongo being the Vezina runner-up in 2007 and finishing third 2004, and receiving votes in other seasons as well.
Either way, let's take this to mean Luongo is a slight upgrade to Bryzgalov right now. Is this worth giving up assets for? Frankly I have no idea what Luongo commands in a trade these days when he clearly has one foot out the door in Vancouver, but I wouldn't give up much for him if I were the Flyers for what amounts to a small marginal benefit (if the Flyers were still rolling out Bob and Leighton, the marginal benefit would be much larger).
Second, assuming the Flyers make an opportunistic deal at a cheap price, how would it work if he got here? Between his contract and his NMC, I don't think Bryzgalov can be traded, and he cannot be bought out until after the season. So you have Bryzgalov and Luongo trading starts competing for the starting job, and then loser of that competition is paid $25 million to go away after the season? Seems kind of insane to me.
It wouldn't surprise me if the Flyers poked around Luongo's availability, but I don't see the endgame here.
Sunday, May 13, 2012
The Offseason Plan
THE SETUP
Here is my best guess as to what the Flyers base lineup will be.
Notes to this chart
-Nearly all of these salary numbers are final, except for Bourdon and Voracek. They are RFAs, and I have guessed at salaries for them
-Pronger, Kubina, Carle and Jagr are not in this lineup.
-A salary cap of $69 million, which is a number that has been thrown around. Obviously with the CBA expiring things could get interesting regarding the cap.
THE ISSUES
-Is Jagr coming back?
That is the first question to answer. If the season ended in January, I would say definitely. He looked tired and beat up as the season carried on though, and his role was reduced. Jagr loved everything about playing for the Flyers this year, and he sounds like he wants one more year in the NHL, but he won't sign here unless he feels he will get significant minutes. He signed with the Flyers against expectations last year because he thought it was a good "hockey fit", and he will leave if that "hockey fit" no longer applies.
-The Defense
By signing Grossmann to an extension, the Flyers took care of their top offseason priority in April. That seems like a decent contract, provided his knees hold up. The Flyers still need help back here though, with Pronger seemingly done, and Timonen is at the end of his career, undersized, and has not survived an 82 game season without sustaining performance-inhibiting injuries the last 2 seasons.
I don't think Carle will be back, because someone will be willing to give him $5m+ a year for several years, and I don't think the Flyers should be that team. You never know though with the way Clarke is talking. There's also a (very) small chance Timonen could retire, freeing up his $6.3m salary, and the Flyers could chase Suter for big money.
Lastly, I've seen spitballing the Flyers could trade for someone like Weber, would involve trading significant assets. Such a move fits the Flyers MO, and while it would hurt to trade away more picks and young forwards, a defense corps with Coburn, Carle and Weber could be rock solid for several years. So many variables to that though...
-Size up front
The Flyers score a ton of goals, but their forward corps is small and not very physical. A big body for the 2/3rd line (who plays big) would balance the roster.
-Goaltending
Nothing to discuss here really. Bryzgalov did not have a good year overall, but I expect improvement next year now that he knows what to expect in Philly. His instincts with the media are wrong for the town, but he's figuring it out.
If you recall, at the end of February, Bryzgalov made comments about "finding the peace in his soul" to play in this city. Most commented that this was a very troubling sign reflecting a discouraged player, and I said it was a good sign. For the record, on the day of that comment, Bryzgalov's save percentage stood at .898. After that comment, he had a spectacular month of March and had a .929 save percentage for the remainder of the season. He will still makes gaffes, but now he knows the lay of the land in Philly and will be better for it.
THE PLAN
There are a ton of ways you could go, but this is what I would do:
-Trade JVR, preferably for an up-and-coming dman. I'm not sure what the trade value of JVR is right now, and if it's diminished in the last few months, but surely the Flyers could make a "hockey trade" for a talented young defenseman whose career is also experiencing less than an exponential growth. Personally, I don't see JVR as a player who will ever consistently perform at all-star level, and the team needs defense more than another skating forward.
JVR could also be the centerpiece of a larger deal for a prominent defensemen.
-Sign a rugged 2/3 line winger to fill JVR's now vacant spot in the top nine. Unfortunately there aren't many such candidates out there on the UFA market, though Shane Doan, Ryan Smyth, Paul Gaustad, Dustin Penner, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Travis Moen and Daniel Winnik might be worth looking into.
-If you can skillfully pull these two things off, the Flyers will still have $3-7 million in cap space to play with, allowing for other signings or taking salary in a trade that could further bolster the defense.
-Make an executive order for system adjustments. I've been beating this drum for a few months. I was really hoping that, as a silver lining to a deep Flyers cup run, would be to buck the trend of tight defense in the NHL today. Alas, look at the teams left in the playoffs; LA (2nd in goals against, and they eliminated VAN and STL who were 4th and 1st respectively), Phoenix (5th), NY (3rd), NJ (9th) and the Caps, who are 21st but only because they started a season with a different coach. Clutch-and-grab is creeping back into the game.
I also believe Bryzgalov will look like a different goalie in a defense-first scheme. This is how he did it in PHX, and his clear weaknesses are side-to-side movement and shot recovery. Defense-first is the way the wind is blowing, and could maximize the talent the Flyers have. Can Lavy make that adjustment? If the team is still leaking goals and looking unspectacular in December, his seat will begin to get hot.
Here is my best guess as to what the Flyers base lineup will be.
Notes to this chart
-Nearly all of these salary numbers are final, except for Bourdon and Voracek. They are RFAs, and I have guessed at salaries for them
-Pronger, Kubina, Carle and Jagr are not in this lineup.
-A salary cap of $69 million, which is a number that has been thrown around. Obviously with the CBA expiring things could get interesting regarding the cap.
THE ISSUES
-Is Jagr coming back?
That is the first question to answer. If the season ended in January, I would say definitely. He looked tired and beat up as the season carried on though, and his role was reduced. Jagr loved everything about playing for the Flyers this year, and he sounds like he wants one more year in the NHL, but he won't sign here unless he feels he will get significant minutes. He signed with the Flyers against expectations last year because he thought it was a good "hockey fit", and he will leave if that "hockey fit" no longer applies.
-The Defense
By signing Grossmann to an extension, the Flyers took care of their top offseason priority in April. That seems like a decent contract, provided his knees hold up. The Flyers still need help back here though, with Pronger seemingly done, and Timonen is at the end of his career, undersized, and has not survived an 82 game season without sustaining performance-inhibiting injuries the last 2 seasons.
I don't think Carle will be back, because someone will be willing to give him $5m+ a year for several years, and I don't think the Flyers should be that team. You never know though with the way Clarke is talking. There's also a (very) small chance Timonen could retire, freeing up his $6.3m salary, and the Flyers could chase Suter for big money.
Lastly, I've seen spitballing the Flyers could trade for someone like Weber, would involve trading significant assets. Such a move fits the Flyers MO, and while it would hurt to trade away more picks and young forwards, a defense corps with Coburn, Carle and Weber could be rock solid for several years. So many variables to that though...
-Size up front
The Flyers score a ton of goals, but their forward corps is small and not very physical. A big body for the 2/3rd line (who plays big) would balance the roster.
-Goaltending
Nothing to discuss here really. Bryzgalov did not have a good year overall, but I expect improvement next year now that he knows what to expect in Philly. His instincts with the media are wrong for the town, but he's figuring it out.
If you recall, at the end of February, Bryzgalov made comments about "finding the peace in his soul" to play in this city. Most commented that this was a very troubling sign reflecting a discouraged player, and I said it was a good sign. For the record, on the day of that comment, Bryzgalov's save percentage stood at .898. After that comment, he had a spectacular month of March and had a .929 save percentage for the remainder of the season. He will still makes gaffes, but now he knows the lay of the land in Philly and will be better for it.
THE PLAN
There are a ton of ways you could go, but this is what I would do:
-Trade JVR, preferably for an up-and-coming dman. I'm not sure what the trade value of JVR is right now, and if it's diminished in the last few months, but surely the Flyers could make a "hockey trade" for a talented young defenseman whose career is also experiencing less than an exponential growth. Personally, I don't see JVR as a player who will ever consistently perform at all-star level, and the team needs defense more than another skating forward.
JVR could also be the centerpiece of a larger deal for a prominent defensemen.
-Sign a rugged 2/3 line winger to fill JVR's now vacant spot in the top nine. Unfortunately there aren't many such candidates out there on the UFA market, though Shane Doan, Ryan Smyth, Paul Gaustad, Dustin Penner, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Travis Moen and Daniel Winnik might be worth looking into.
-If you can skillfully pull these two things off, the Flyers will still have $3-7 million in cap space to play with, allowing for other signings or taking salary in a trade that could further bolster the defense.
-Make an executive order for system adjustments. I've been beating this drum for a few months. I was really hoping that, as a silver lining to a deep Flyers cup run, would be to buck the trend of tight defense in the NHL today. Alas, look at the teams left in the playoffs; LA (2nd in goals against, and they eliminated VAN and STL who were 4th and 1st respectively), Phoenix (5th), NY (3rd), NJ (9th) and the Caps, who are 21st but only because they started a season with a different coach. Clutch-and-grab is creeping back into the game.
I also believe Bryzgalov will look like a different goalie in a defense-first scheme. This is how he did it in PHX, and his clear weaknesses are side-to-side movement and shot recovery. Defense-first is the way the wind is blowing, and could maximize the talent the Flyers have. Can Lavy make that adjustment? If the team is still leaking goals and looking unspectacular in December, his seat will begin to get hot.
Friday, May 11, 2012
Season Review
All playoff exits feel disappointing. Through the ups and downs, fans always convince themselves that their team can win any series. The Flyers flame-out was sudden, but in the long view, it makes a little more sense.
At no point this season did I think the Flyers were really primed for a serious cup run. They were too young up front, having traded away their core forwards. Then things started going pretty well, but Pronger went down. Without Pronger, I thought a long playoff run was precluded.
The Flyers defensive and goaltending struggles reinforced that perception, until March shutouts made me begin to think I could be wrong. The defense showed hope, and they could score whenever they needed to. Eventually however, the gas tank ran dry and ingrained problems caught up to them.
It was a memorable and exciting season, and I could not label this team as underachievers. That's pretty much all you can ask for as a fan.
PLAYER REVIEWS
Forwards:
-Giroux. The burden fell to him to step up with Carter and Richards gone, and he responded with an MVP caliber season that Richards or Carter never produced.
-Briere. A very poor regular season, largely saved by 8 playoff goals. His overall game never really fired on all cylinders though, even in the playoffs.
-Voracek. His 49 points is not all that impressive, but he was a valuable player for the Flyers, and I certainly didn't see anything like conditioning or effort issues that his old CBJ coach criticized him for on the way out. He may never break 25 goals or 65 points, but I could see him being a winger on a quality top line.
-Hartnell. A quiet playoffs shouldn't dilute a career year, and I think he was playing hurt anyway. Consistently energetic, physical, and showed a finishing touch I didn't think he had. All this after a pre-season lost to health concerns and a terrible start.
-Jagr. 54 points in 73 games, veteran leadership, and the self-proclaimed "most enjoyable year" of his career. That qualifies as a success. Jagr did have some nagging groin issues, and his energy level fluctuated throughout the year, so it remains to be seen if he will be back.
-Schenn. 18 points in 54 games is an unimpressive line, but he improved as the season wore on, and I'd go so far as to say he was the Flyers' best player in game 1 of the Pittsburgh series. I expect him to take the next step in his career next year.
-Read. He turned out to be one of the best rookies in the league. 24 goals, played everywhere on the front line, and in all situations. Pretty much ideal.
-Simmonds. Almost doubled his career high in goals, largely due to 11 PP goals. He looks to be a streaky scorer going forward, as he battles and puts himself in good positions but doesn't have very soft hands, his physical initiative will make him a fan favorite.
-Talbot. Gave the Flyers everything they could hope for. A lunchpail player and team guy, he went from 8 goals last season with Pittsburgh to 19 this year, and he and Giroux were lethal shorthanded in the playoffs.
-Couturier. Surpassed all expectations this season, with 13 goals and logged big minutes in the playoffs. Remarkable for an 18 year old, I could not identify any clear deficiencies in his game. What a draft day steal, he could be a key player for the Flyers for a long time.
-Wellwood. Nothing spectacular, but a young, speedy player that should be an asset for bottom lines and depth next year.
-Rinaldo. Did all that could be asked of him. Not a high skill guy, he successfully brought a lot of energy and spark to the Flyers. He will have to continue to work on his discipline, though in his defense, he is clearly targeted by the officials and is on the short end of a lot of marginal calls.
-JVR. I think JVR had a very disappointing season. Yes, he had injuries, and his point production was decent before all the injuries. Still, I wrote that his early stat line flattered his play even before all the injuries, and there's no escaping the reality of the 11g, 13a, 43gp for a player who was supposed to score 30+ goals this year. He was very good in game 1 against NJ, but did little else in that series.
-Shelley. Yes, he is still on this team.
Defense:
-Timonen. Another year of wear and tear on Timonen's body, he still was able to be the Flyers top defensemen this year. Injuries severely limited him in the playoffs.
-Meszaros. Was inconsistent all year, never finding the form he had most of last season. Then his season was cut short by an injury. Maybe next year will be a bounce back season.
-Coburn. Unremarkable regular season, but logged huge minutes in the playoffs.
-Grossmann. The strong, defense-first, shot-blocking defenseman the team needed. He has bad knees though, so let's hope they hold up.
-Carle. The team's de facto number 1 defensemen this year, covering a lot of territory and eating minutes. A very good chance that his time as a Flyers is over, however.
-Kubina. He could not provide the reliable veteran presence the team was looking for---too old and slow, and picked up some injuries too. Little chance of him returning.
-Pronger. His season never really started, and his career may be over. It's a shame his time with the Flyers was so short-lived.
-Gustafsson. He really made some nice strides this season, though he could struggle at times. Skilled and smart, but undersized. It will be interesting to see what he can do next year in extended time.
-Bourdon. Another pleasant surprise, as his career seemed to have stalled in the minors. Looks like he might have an NHL future yet.
-Lilja. Seldom used in the regular season, played decently in the playoffs. Too old and slow to play a significant role.
Goalies:
-Bryzgalov. Things did not go as planned, though he was amazing in March. Too inconsistent and gaffe prone, but on and off the ice. Seemingly has some growing up to do, though a full season in Philly under his belt will help. Expectations will remain high with his 9 year contract. I am optimistic.
-Bobrovsky. Started the season strong, but on the whole did not take the next step in his career this year. Now heading into the last year of his contract with the Flyers.
At no point this season did I think the Flyers were really primed for a serious cup run. They were too young up front, having traded away their core forwards. Then things started going pretty well, but Pronger went down. Without Pronger, I thought a long playoff run was precluded.
The Flyers defensive and goaltending struggles reinforced that perception, until March shutouts made me begin to think I could be wrong. The defense showed hope, and they could score whenever they needed to. Eventually however, the gas tank ran dry and ingrained problems caught up to them.
It was a memorable and exciting season, and I could not label this team as underachievers. That's pretty much all you can ask for as a fan.
PLAYER REVIEWS
Forwards:
-Giroux. The burden fell to him to step up with Carter and Richards gone, and he responded with an MVP caliber season that Richards or Carter never produced.
-Briere. A very poor regular season, largely saved by 8 playoff goals. His overall game never really fired on all cylinders though, even in the playoffs.
-Voracek. His 49 points is not all that impressive, but he was a valuable player for the Flyers, and I certainly didn't see anything like conditioning or effort issues that his old CBJ coach criticized him for on the way out. He may never break 25 goals or 65 points, but I could see him being a winger on a quality top line.
-Hartnell. A quiet playoffs shouldn't dilute a career year, and I think he was playing hurt anyway. Consistently energetic, physical, and showed a finishing touch I didn't think he had. All this after a pre-season lost to health concerns and a terrible start.
-Jagr. 54 points in 73 games, veteran leadership, and the self-proclaimed "most enjoyable year" of his career. That qualifies as a success. Jagr did have some nagging groin issues, and his energy level fluctuated throughout the year, so it remains to be seen if he will be back.
-Schenn. 18 points in 54 games is an unimpressive line, but he improved as the season wore on, and I'd go so far as to say he was the Flyers' best player in game 1 of the Pittsburgh series. I expect him to take the next step in his career next year.
-Read. He turned out to be one of the best rookies in the league. 24 goals, played everywhere on the front line, and in all situations. Pretty much ideal.
-Simmonds. Almost doubled his career high in goals, largely due to 11 PP goals. He looks to be a streaky scorer going forward, as he battles and puts himself in good positions but doesn't have very soft hands, his physical initiative will make him a fan favorite.
-Talbot. Gave the Flyers everything they could hope for. A lunchpail player and team guy, he went from 8 goals last season with Pittsburgh to 19 this year, and he and Giroux were lethal shorthanded in the playoffs.
-Couturier. Surpassed all expectations this season, with 13 goals and logged big minutes in the playoffs. Remarkable for an 18 year old, I could not identify any clear deficiencies in his game. What a draft day steal, he could be a key player for the Flyers for a long time.
-Wellwood. Nothing spectacular, but a young, speedy player that should be an asset for bottom lines and depth next year.
-Rinaldo. Did all that could be asked of him. Not a high skill guy, he successfully brought a lot of energy and spark to the Flyers. He will have to continue to work on his discipline, though in his defense, he is clearly targeted by the officials and is on the short end of a lot of marginal calls.
-JVR. I think JVR had a very disappointing season. Yes, he had injuries, and his point production was decent before all the injuries. Still, I wrote that his early stat line flattered his play even before all the injuries, and there's no escaping the reality of the 11g, 13a, 43gp for a player who was supposed to score 30+ goals this year. He was very good in game 1 against NJ, but did little else in that series.
-Shelley. Yes, he is still on this team.
Defense:
-Timonen. Another year of wear and tear on Timonen's body, he still was able to be the Flyers top defensemen this year. Injuries severely limited him in the playoffs.
-Meszaros. Was inconsistent all year, never finding the form he had most of last season. Then his season was cut short by an injury. Maybe next year will be a bounce back season.
-Coburn. Unremarkable regular season, but logged huge minutes in the playoffs.
-Grossmann. The strong, defense-first, shot-blocking defenseman the team needed. He has bad knees though, so let's hope they hold up.
-Carle. The team's de facto number 1 defensemen this year, covering a lot of territory and eating minutes. A very good chance that his time as a Flyers is over, however.
-Kubina. He could not provide the reliable veteran presence the team was looking for---too old and slow, and picked up some injuries too. Little chance of him returning.
-Pronger. His season never really started, and his career may be over. It's a shame his time with the Flyers was so short-lived.
-Gustafsson. He really made some nice strides this season, though he could struggle at times. Skilled and smart, but undersized. It will be interesting to see what he can do next year in extended time.
-Bourdon. Another pleasant surprise, as his career seemed to have stalled in the minors. Looks like he might have an NHL future yet.
-Lilja. Seldom used in the regular season, played decently in the playoffs. Too old and slow to play a significant role.
Goalies:
-Bryzgalov. Things did not go as planned, though he was amazing in March. Too inconsistent and gaffe prone, but on and off the ice. Seemingly has some growing up to do, though a full season in Philly under his belt will help. Expectations will remain high with his 9 year contract. I am optimistic.
-Bobrovsky. Started the season strong, but on the whole did not take the next step in his career this year. Now heading into the last year of his contract with the Flyers.
Wednesday, May 9, 2012
Devils Game 5 Review
And now it's official. The Flyers death march concluded last night, in a game that looked pretty much like the previous 3. I'll save my broader comments on the season for another post, but it was disappointing to see the Flyers fall so flatly this round.
I always had deep doubts about the transferability of the Penguins result. As I have said previously, that was a series of passion and the Flyers should simply forget it ever happened. The Penguins are a better team than the Devils, but the Penguins-Flyers series was a rivalry that created a unique series that was an exception to what was happening around the league.
While a letdown is not surprising, an effective collapse by the Flyers was. Twice in six regular season meetings the Devils handily controlled the Flyers, but to do it 4 times in a row? I did not imagine that could happen.
It's most disappointing to me that the Flyers completely failed to adjust to the Devils game plan. By game 5, they clearly had no ideas, and the Devils continued to own the puck, control the center of the ice, and dominate on the boards. At this point, I'm not sure how blame much falls on the players, and how much falls on the coaches.
The Devils forecheck continued to bedevil the Flyers (har har har), but the domination went beyond that. For instance, the Flyers PP, which utterly demolished the Penguins, was 3/19 against the Devils. That has nothing to do with the Devils even strength forecheck. Furthermore, in this series with a 3rd period lead, the Devils would change their forecheck and play more of a trap. The Flyers could not beat that either, as evidenced by their feeble 3rd period effort last night with their season on the line and nothing to lose.
At least with the Flyers out, I am free to cancel cable for the summer...
Notes:
-Spare me the finger pointing at Bryzgalov. There is no defending the game winning goal last night, but on the whole, he was the Flyers best player this series by a large margin. He didn't singlehandedly win a game, but the Devils were the far superior team in games 2 and 4 and Bryz played excellent games to keep the result in doubt until the 3rd period.
I'm pretty sure all hockey writers have a pre-written template for an article "Goaltending Fails the Flyers Again" with blank spaces for the name of the goalie. Those articles will pop up again. Ignore them. And before you say good goalies simply don't do what Bryz did last night, consider that Brodeur directly caused a goal in game 1 by passing the puck right up the center of the ice where Schenn intercepted it, and again turned over the puck to Schenn last night while still behind the goal, but Briere hit the post on a wide open net. The only difference between Bryzgalov's turnover and Brodeur's last night was luck.
-Rinaldo instantly made his presence felt this game, sparking the Flyers physical game early with a devastating hit on Volchenkov. As the game carried on, Rinaldo became irrelevant however, and he took a bad penalty.
-Another disappointing night for JVR, topped off with a particularly bad sequence. He had the puck with time and space behind the Devils net, but was stripped of the puck, and took a terrible offensive zone penalty while trying to backcheck. Kovalchuck would ice the series 4 seconds into that PP.
-Good for Talbot last night, as he was one of the few flyers that was johnny-on-the-spot on the puck, and his forechecking in the corner started a sequence of events that he would also finish to score the game's first goal.
-The team that scored first was 0-5 this series. The team that scored first was 1-5 last series. Hard to believe...
-Brief playoff performance recaps;
-Thumbs up: Briere (8 goals and 13 points), Giroux (17 points), Voracek (10 points), Schenn (9 points), Talbot (6 points, best +/- on team), Couturier, Coburn (played huge minutes), Grossmann (until getting injured), Gustafsson
-Thumbs down: Carle, Simmonds, Read (didn't get much ice time), JVR, Kubina (injured? either way wasn't there for the team)
-Meh: Hartnell (injured?), Jagr (injured?), Timonen (injured?), Bryzgalov, Lilja, Wellwood, Rinaldo
I always had deep doubts about the transferability of the Penguins result. As I have said previously, that was a series of passion and the Flyers should simply forget it ever happened. The Penguins are a better team than the Devils, but the Penguins-Flyers series was a rivalry that created a unique series that was an exception to what was happening around the league.
While a letdown is not surprising, an effective collapse by the Flyers was. Twice in six regular season meetings the Devils handily controlled the Flyers, but to do it 4 times in a row? I did not imagine that could happen.
It's most disappointing to me that the Flyers completely failed to adjust to the Devils game plan. By game 5, they clearly had no ideas, and the Devils continued to own the puck, control the center of the ice, and dominate on the boards. At this point, I'm not sure how blame much falls on the players, and how much falls on the coaches.
The Devils forecheck continued to bedevil the Flyers (har har har), but the domination went beyond that. For instance, the Flyers PP, which utterly demolished the Penguins, was 3/19 against the Devils. That has nothing to do with the Devils even strength forecheck. Furthermore, in this series with a 3rd period lead, the Devils would change their forecheck and play more of a trap. The Flyers could not beat that either, as evidenced by their feeble 3rd period effort last night with their season on the line and nothing to lose.
At least with the Flyers out, I am free to cancel cable for the summer...
Notes:
-Spare me the finger pointing at Bryzgalov. There is no defending the game winning goal last night, but on the whole, he was the Flyers best player this series by a large margin. He didn't singlehandedly win a game, but the Devils were the far superior team in games 2 and 4 and Bryz played excellent games to keep the result in doubt until the 3rd period.
I'm pretty sure all hockey writers have a pre-written template for an article "Goaltending Fails the Flyers Again" with blank spaces for the name of the goalie. Those articles will pop up again. Ignore them. And before you say good goalies simply don't do what Bryz did last night, consider that Brodeur directly caused a goal in game 1 by passing the puck right up the center of the ice where Schenn intercepted it, and again turned over the puck to Schenn last night while still behind the goal, but Briere hit the post on a wide open net. The only difference between Bryzgalov's turnover and Brodeur's last night was luck.
-Rinaldo instantly made his presence felt this game, sparking the Flyers physical game early with a devastating hit on Volchenkov. As the game carried on, Rinaldo became irrelevant however, and he took a bad penalty.
-Another disappointing night for JVR, topped off with a particularly bad sequence. He had the puck with time and space behind the Devils net, but was stripped of the puck, and took a terrible offensive zone penalty while trying to backcheck. Kovalchuck would ice the series 4 seconds into that PP.
-Good for Talbot last night, as he was one of the few flyers that was johnny-on-the-spot on the puck, and his forechecking in the corner started a sequence of events that he would also finish to score the game's first goal.
-The team that scored first was 0-5 this series. The team that scored first was 1-5 last series. Hard to believe...
-Brief playoff performance recaps;
-Thumbs up: Briere (8 goals and 13 points), Giroux (17 points), Voracek (10 points), Schenn (9 points), Talbot (6 points, best +/- on team), Couturier, Coburn (played huge minutes), Grossmann (until getting injured), Gustafsson
-Thumbs down: Carle, Simmonds, Read (didn't get much ice time), JVR, Kubina (injured? either way wasn't there for the team)
-Meh: Hartnell (injured?), Jagr (injured?), Timonen (injured?), Bryzgalov, Lilja, Wellwood, Rinaldo
Monday, May 7, 2012
Devils Game 4 Review
Well, it was fun while it lasted. The Flyers may not be officially eliminated, but it would take a miracle. 3-1 comebacks are quite rare, and the Devils dominated game 2 and 4. It's very hard to envision the Flyers mounting any comeback of consequence. Maybe I'll give them a 1-in-3 chance of winning game 5, mainly because I have tickets to the game and I don't want to feel like I wasted my money.
The Devils have completely swarmed the Flyers. Game 1 started off this way, but everyone wrote it off due the Devils being sharp and the Flyers waking up from the week-long layoff. Instead, that trend has accelerated.
I feel like there's a "chicken and the egg" scenario at play. The Devils forecheck has overwhelmed the Flyers, and now they look confused and are being completely outskated. Which came first? The overwhelming forecheck making the Flyers look slow, or the Flyers simply didn't have jump which allowed the Devils to forecheck so effectively?
I think it's probably the tactics. The Flyers forwards try to leave the zone so quickly, as they have all year, but the Devils have successfully pressured the Flyers defensemen. Without the time or ability to find the forwards, the defensemen keep playing the puck to empty space, and the Devils get there first.
At the same time, I don't discount the Flyers mental let-down from beating Pittsburgh. They put so much energy and passion into this series, it was like they couldn't get up for this series mentally. The situation was ripe for a letdown, and the Flyers fan base was certainly lulled into a false sense of security--"we killed the mighty Pens, so we'll crush the Devils easily." Admittedly, I didn't think a letdown would become a total disintegration like we are seeing though.
The Flyers look confused and tentative, and Laviolette probably does not have some magic elixir up his sleeve. The Devils might put them out of their misery pretty quick.
Notes:
-An up and down night for Giroux. He scored a nice shorthanded goal, allaying my fears that the rumors of his bad groin would prevent him from bursts of speed. After scoring however, he was more interested in barking at the ref than anything else. It was a bad sign, indicating his emotions were getting away from him.
Later, after the officials blew a call on Brodeur for playing the puck outside the trapezoid, Giroux again assailed the officials, then took out his frustration with a dirty check to Zubrus's head. This was pretty much the type of headshot for which I roasted Malkin and Neal. Late, opportunistic headhunting. If it was my NHL, Giroux would be suspended. As it is, given that Giroux didn't make an egregiously illegal hit by leaving his feet or throwing an elbow, has no prior history, and Zubrus wasn't hurt, I suspect all we'll see is a fine.
-Speaking of Brodeur, his special treatment from the refs continues. The interference call on Hartnell was blatantly wrong, as Hartnell was clearly checked into him, and at mild contact Brodeur wildly kicked his legs and threw his arms around. He also dodged a penalty for handling the puck. That's 3 games in a row where Brodeur has drawn a penalty on the Flyers when there simply wasn't much (or anything at all) there. [JVR called for slashing in Game 2 when going for a loose puck, Schenn makes slight skate-to-skate contact and Broduer flops in game 3].
-The Flyers' lines are all mixed up. Couturier played, but barely. This broke up his checking line with Wellwood and Talbot, so Wellwood also barely played. I do support Laviolette's decision to break up the Jagr-Giroux-Hartnell. Whether it's injuries or whatever, their not playing well individually or collectively.
-Regarding Bryzgalov, anyone who tries to pin this debacle on the goaltending is an idiot. The Flyers were dominated in games 2 and 4, but the game was close to the end because of Bryzgalov. I don't like how he threw up his hands after the Devils' 3rd goal last night though, even if it was shockingly bad coverage. For once the Flyers can reflect on their playoff run and don't need to ask themselves how they were sabotaged by goaltending.
The Devils have completely swarmed the Flyers. Game 1 started off this way, but everyone wrote it off due the Devils being sharp and the Flyers waking up from the week-long layoff. Instead, that trend has accelerated.
I feel like there's a "chicken and the egg" scenario at play. The Devils forecheck has overwhelmed the Flyers, and now they look confused and are being completely outskated. Which came first? The overwhelming forecheck making the Flyers look slow, or the Flyers simply didn't have jump which allowed the Devils to forecheck so effectively?
I think it's probably the tactics. The Flyers forwards try to leave the zone so quickly, as they have all year, but the Devils have successfully pressured the Flyers defensemen. Without the time or ability to find the forwards, the defensemen keep playing the puck to empty space, and the Devils get there first.
At the same time, I don't discount the Flyers mental let-down from beating Pittsburgh. They put so much energy and passion into this series, it was like they couldn't get up for this series mentally. The situation was ripe for a letdown, and the Flyers fan base was certainly lulled into a false sense of security--"we killed the mighty Pens, so we'll crush the Devils easily." Admittedly, I didn't think a letdown would become a total disintegration like we are seeing though.
The Flyers look confused and tentative, and Laviolette probably does not have some magic elixir up his sleeve. The Devils might put them out of their misery pretty quick.
Notes:
-An up and down night for Giroux. He scored a nice shorthanded goal, allaying my fears that the rumors of his bad groin would prevent him from bursts of speed. After scoring however, he was more interested in barking at the ref than anything else. It was a bad sign, indicating his emotions were getting away from him.
Later, after the officials blew a call on Brodeur for playing the puck outside the trapezoid, Giroux again assailed the officials, then took out his frustration with a dirty check to Zubrus's head. This was pretty much the type of headshot for which I roasted Malkin and Neal. Late, opportunistic headhunting. If it was my NHL, Giroux would be suspended. As it is, given that Giroux didn't make an egregiously illegal hit by leaving his feet or throwing an elbow, has no prior history, and Zubrus wasn't hurt, I suspect all we'll see is a fine.
-Speaking of Brodeur, his special treatment from the refs continues. The interference call on Hartnell was blatantly wrong, as Hartnell was clearly checked into him, and at mild contact Brodeur wildly kicked his legs and threw his arms around. He also dodged a penalty for handling the puck. That's 3 games in a row where Brodeur has drawn a penalty on the Flyers when there simply wasn't much (or anything at all) there. [JVR called for slashing in Game 2 when going for a loose puck, Schenn makes slight skate-to-skate contact and Broduer flops in game 3].
-The Flyers' lines are all mixed up. Couturier played, but barely. This broke up his checking line with Wellwood and Talbot, so Wellwood also barely played. I do support Laviolette's decision to break up the Jagr-Giroux-Hartnell. Whether it's injuries or whatever, their not playing well individually or collectively.
-Regarding Bryzgalov, anyone who tries to pin this debacle on the goaltending is an idiot. The Flyers were dominated in games 2 and 4, but the game was close to the end because of Bryzgalov. I don't like how he threw up his hands after the Devils' 3rd goal last night though, even if it was shockingly bad coverage. For once the Flyers can reflect on their playoff run and don't need to ask themselves how they were sabotaged by goaltending.
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
Devils Game 2 Review
Hoepfully, last night was just a wake-up call.
Aside from Bryzgalov, there is very little to say about the Flyers performance last night. The Devils had the better of the first few shifts, but then the Flyers nicked a goal on their first shot. In the next few minutes the Flyers looked like they might get a few more goals and run away with it, but some Devils power plays broke their momentum. They would never get it back.
Towards the end of the first period, Pierre McGuire remarked how the Devils would need to come up with a better push because the Flyers were comfortable playing with the lead and trading some scoring chances. The Devils found a huge push, and it lasted the rest of the game.
Getting outshot 12-2 in a period and looking so lifeless in a playoff game is embarrassing. The Flyers never played with any intensity, as the Devils skated circles around the stationary Flyers, even on the Flyers' power plays.
This game was not unlike the regular season meetings in early November (when the Flyers were outshot 39-23) and early February (where the Devils led 6-0). Those were the Devils two best performances against the Flyers this year, and both meetings took place in Philadelphia.
The Flyers are still a much more potent team than the Devils, but this game is a reminder to them of the carelessness which occasionally plagued their regular season. No need to panic, but the Flyers need to get back on the horse quickly.
Notes:
-None
Aside from Bryzgalov, there is very little to say about the Flyers performance last night. The Devils had the better of the first few shifts, but then the Flyers nicked a goal on their first shot. In the next few minutes the Flyers looked like they might get a few more goals and run away with it, but some Devils power plays broke their momentum. They would never get it back.
Towards the end of the first period, Pierre McGuire remarked how the Devils would need to come up with a better push because the Flyers were comfortable playing with the lead and trading some scoring chances. The Devils found a huge push, and it lasted the rest of the game.
Getting outshot 12-2 in a period and looking so lifeless in a playoff game is embarrassing. The Flyers never played with any intensity, as the Devils skated circles around the stationary Flyers, even on the Flyers' power plays.
This game was not unlike the regular season meetings in early November (when the Flyers were outshot 39-23) and early February (where the Devils led 6-0). Those were the Devils two best performances against the Flyers this year, and both meetings took place in Philadelphia.
The Flyers are still a much more potent team than the Devils, but this game is a reminder to them of the carelessness which occasionally plagued their regular season. No need to panic, but the Flyers need to get back on the horse quickly.
Notes:
-None
Sunday, April 29, 2012
Devils Game 1 Review
It all seemed too predictable.
Predictably, the long layoff exacerbated the Flyers' slow starts, and the Devils had the game's first 10 shots and its first goal.
Predictably, the Flyers slowly took over the game against a fatigued Devils team.
Predictably, Brodeur had some real strong stretches, but doesn't dominate entire games anymore.
Predictably, it was Danny Briere popping up to score two key goals.
Overall, I think we saw a preview of what this series will look like. The Devils contained the Flyers at times, denying the Flyers space and stopping attacks before they started. In time, however, the Flyers asserted their superiority.
Notes:
-Briere simply turns it up in the playoffs. He had a terrible regular season, making the success of his season entirely hinge on his playoff performance. Well now he has 7 goals in 7 playoff games. As good as he was in the playoffs last year, it took him 8 games to get 7 goals then. This is all the more impressive considering he finished the season with only 3 goals in his last 34 regular season games.
-Playoff JVR is back. He revved it up and drove the net a few times. He didn't finish any of those plays, though he did roof a loose puck with style for one goal. Laviolette put JVR up with Briere and Voracek, reducing the ice time of Schenn in the process, but it looks like that may be the right call.
-The Flyers were able to spread out their defensemen's ice time much more tonight than at any point of the Pittsburgh series. The health of Grossman, increased faith in Lilja and Gustafsson, and quite frankly less threatening forward talent on the Devils made this possible. This may not be a good sign because of what it implies about his health, but Timonen actually had the fewest even strength minutes of any defensemen.
-The Devils had success taking away the Flyers passing outlets and forcing the Flyers defensemen to carry the puck further than they normally would up the ice. The Devils got their 3rd goal on a chain of events that started this way.
-Wellwood played a very good game, and looked like one of the few Flyers ready to go from the start. As a member of the checking line with Talbot and Cooter, Wellwood will continue to see more ice time than Schenn, Read or Simmonds.
-My review of Bryzgalov today was a pretty strong start, but could've been better later. In particular, he was a little slow moving around and reacting, leaving his five-hole open. Bryzgalov didn't have much to do in the 3rd period, but he should've done better on the Sykora goal and made a momentum preserving stop.
Predictably, the long layoff exacerbated the Flyers' slow starts, and the Devils had the game's first 10 shots and its first goal.
Predictably, the Flyers slowly took over the game against a fatigued Devils team.
Predictably, Brodeur had some real strong stretches, but doesn't dominate entire games anymore.
Predictably, it was Danny Briere popping up to score two key goals.
Overall, I think we saw a preview of what this series will look like. The Devils contained the Flyers at times, denying the Flyers space and stopping attacks before they started. In time, however, the Flyers asserted their superiority.
Notes:
-Briere simply turns it up in the playoffs. He had a terrible regular season, making the success of his season entirely hinge on his playoff performance. Well now he has 7 goals in 7 playoff games. As good as he was in the playoffs last year, it took him 8 games to get 7 goals then. This is all the more impressive considering he finished the season with only 3 goals in his last 34 regular season games.
-Playoff JVR is back. He revved it up and drove the net a few times. He didn't finish any of those plays, though he did roof a loose puck with style for one goal. Laviolette put JVR up with Briere and Voracek, reducing the ice time of Schenn in the process, but it looks like that may be the right call.
-The Flyers were able to spread out their defensemen's ice time much more tonight than at any point of the Pittsburgh series. The health of Grossman, increased faith in Lilja and Gustafsson, and quite frankly less threatening forward talent on the Devils made this possible. This may not be a good sign because of what it implies about his health, but Timonen actually had the fewest even strength minutes of any defensemen.
-The Devils had success taking away the Flyers passing outlets and forcing the Flyers defensemen to carry the puck further than they normally would up the ice. The Devils got their 3rd goal on a chain of events that started this way.
-Wellwood played a very good game, and looked like one of the few Flyers ready to go from the start. As a member of the checking line with Talbot and Cooter, Wellwood will continue to see more ice time than Schenn, Read or Simmonds.
-My review of Bryzgalov today was a pretty strong start, but could've been better later. In particular, he was a little slow moving around and reacting, leaving his five-hole open. Bryzgalov didn't have much to do in the 3rd period, but he should've done better on the Sykora goal and made a momentum preserving stop.
Friday, April 27, 2012
Finally, an Opponent
After dispatching the Flyer's archrival of the moment, the Flyers will now face their chief rival from about 1995-2005, the New Jersey Devils.
This year's Devils aren't the most formidable team, but they are capable of playing some good hockey. Brodeur is also a legend, but at 39 he is much more vulnerable than he used to be.
The Flyers are capable of winning this series convincingly, but a victory lap would be premature. The Flyers's bad starts and lack of 60 minute efforts could make this a long series if the Devils stay the course.
The Flyers largely need to forget the last series. It was a wide-open series of passion. This series will not be. The Devils this year allowed the second fewest shots against in the NHL, and were 4th from the bottom in generating their own shots, so prepare for much tighter hockey. Fortunately for the Flyers, the Devils weren't suffocating when protecting leads either.
Notes:
-The Flyers will not be repeating their 50+% power play percentage. Better, more reliable 5-on-5 play will be required. Despite a poor first round performance, the Devils PK was #1 in the league this year in the regular season (the Penguins were #3, FWIW).
-Health will be a major issue. Grossmann appears ready to go, but Briere, Jagr and Timonen are all in various states of disrepair. Bryzgalov appears to be healthy, but you also can't forget his injury status. Lastly, Meszaros is increasing participation in practices, but all estimates peg him joining the series very late, if at all.
-The Flyers played the Devils 6 times this season
-10/8 - Bryzgalov gets a 20 save shutout in the 2nd game of the season. 3-0 Flyers.
-11/3 - The Flyers blow a 2-0 lead, losing 4-3 in a shootout. The Devils outshoot the Flyers 39-23
-1/21 - The Flyers again take a 2-0 lead, and a couple of PP goals by Hartnell ends in a 4-1 Flyers victory
-2/4 - The Devils get 3 PP goals and 1 SHG, and chase Bobrovsky from the game leading 6-0. The Flyers score 4 goals in the third period to make it respectable. 6-4 Devils.
-3/11 - A 1-1 game early in the 3rd period, the Devils score 3 unanswered goals, outshooting the Flyers 31-19 overall. 4-1 Devils.
-3/13 - In the back-end of the home-and-home series, the Flyers shut down NJ and Bryzgalov gets a 17 save shutout, 3-0 Flyers.
-FWIW, Bryzgalov's numbers against NJ this year were 3-0, 0.29 GAA, .987 save percentage, 2 shutouts. All losses fell on Bobrovsky, though Bobrovsky admittedly saw a lot more shots than Bryzgalov in those games.
-I will be interested to see how JVR performs this series, as hopefully his health will have improved significantly in the last week.
This year's Devils aren't the most formidable team, but they are capable of playing some good hockey. Brodeur is also a legend, but at 39 he is much more vulnerable than he used to be.
The Flyers are capable of winning this series convincingly, but a victory lap would be premature. The Flyers's bad starts and lack of 60 minute efforts could make this a long series if the Devils stay the course.
The Flyers largely need to forget the last series. It was a wide-open series of passion. This series will not be. The Devils this year allowed the second fewest shots against in the NHL, and were 4th from the bottom in generating their own shots, so prepare for much tighter hockey. Fortunately for the Flyers, the Devils weren't suffocating when protecting leads either.
Notes:
-The Flyers will not be repeating their 50+% power play percentage. Better, more reliable 5-on-5 play will be required. Despite a poor first round performance, the Devils PK was #1 in the league this year in the regular season (the Penguins were #3, FWIW).
-Health will be a major issue. Grossmann appears ready to go, but Briere, Jagr and Timonen are all in various states of disrepair. Bryzgalov appears to be healthy, but you also can't forget his injury status. Lastly, Meszaros is increasing participation in practices, but all estimates peg him joining the series very late, if at all.
-The Flyers played the Devils 6 times this season
-10/8 - Bryzgalov gets a 20 save shutout in the 2nd game of the season. 3-0 Flyers.
-11/3 - The Flyers blow a 2-0 lead, losing 4-3 in a shootout. The Devils outshoot the Flyers 39-23
-1/21 - The Flyers again take a 2-0 lead, and a couple of PP goals by Hartnell ends in a 4-1 Flyers victory
-2/4 - The Devils get 3 PP goals and 1 SHG, and chase Bobrovsky from the game leading 6-0. The Flyers score 4 goals in the third period to make it respectable. 6-4 Devils.
-3/11 - A 1-1 game early in the 3rd period, the Devils score 3 unanswered goals, outshooting the Flyers 31-19 overall. 4-1 Devils.
-3/13 - In the back-end of the home-and-home series, the Flyers shut down NJ and Bryzgalov gets a 17 save shutout, 3-0 Flyers.
-FWIW, Bryzgalov's numbers against NJ this year were 3-0, 0.29 GAA, .987 save percentage, 2 shutouts. All losses fell on Bobrovsky, though Bobrovsky admittedly saw a lot more shots than Bryzgalov in those games.
-I will be interested to see how JVR performs this series, as hopefully his health will have improved significantly in the last week.
Sunday, April 22, 2012
Penguins Game 6 Review
Flyers nation can now exhale.
Anxiety was rising, but instead the Flyers turned out their best 60 minutes of the series. Giroux provided the early boost, and the Flyers circled the wagons and survived the Penguins furious counter-punch. That would prove to be Penguins' best shot.
I was oddly confident this morning. Rationally, I should've been very concerned about the Flyers shorthanded defense, and Bryz looking physically hampered, but instead I just thought to myself that there was no way the Flyers would let this series get away from them. They were going to win this game. This team has been way too resilient this year, never giving up. Yes, the Penguins were a more focused team than earlier in the series, but this Flyers team always answers the bell.
I'm already looking forward to the next round, and pulling hard for both Washington and Ottawa to complete their upsets and leave a clear path to the finals for the Flyers. Either way, it will be great not to have to think about punks like Malkin, Neal and Letang for 6 months.
Notes:
-The Flyers really tightened up defensively. Bryzgalov faced hardly any clean looks, and didn't have to move laterally nearly as much. As a result, he looked more comfortable and made all the expected saves. Also, the Flyers blocked 40 shots today, more than the previous two games combined (and double the 20 they blocked in game 3, their previous series high).
-Gustafsson came in and played like a champ. His ice time rose from ~12 minutes in game 5 to ~22 in game 6, nearly all at even strength. That was more than Timonen and Carle at even strength this game. Timonen actually played less than 7.5 minutes at even strength, and 15 overall.
-After going for 1/3 on the power play today, the Flyers percentage dropped to 57% (12/23) for the series. The Pens themselves went 31% (9/29), a damn good number in any other reality, but also gave up 3 shorthanded goals. Mind you, the Pens were one of the best penalty killing teams in the league this year and set a franchise record for PK percentage.
-Crosby was nearly invisible today, and I suspect he is not 100% after getting nailed on the chin by Malkin last game. Malkin was very good, scoring one, hitting a post, and generally wreaking havoc in the Flyers zone around the net.
Anxiety was rising, but instead the Flyers turned out their best 60 minutes of the series. Giroux provided the early boost, and the Flyers circled the wagons and survived the Penguins furious counter-punch. That would prove to be Penguins' best shot.
I was oddly confident this morning. Rationally, I should've been very concerned about the Flyers shorthanded defense, and Bryz looking physically hampered, but instead I just thought to myself that there was no way the Flyers would let this series get away from them. They were going to win this game. This team has been way too resilient this year, never giving up. Yes, the Penguins were a more focused team than earlier in the series, but this Flyers team always answers the bell.
I'm already looking forward to the next round, and pulling hard for both Washington and Ottawa to complete their upsets and leave a clear path to the finals for the Flyers. Either way, it will be great not to have to think about punks like Malkin, Neal and Letang for 6 months.
Notes:
-The Flyers really tightened up defensively. Bryzgalov faced hardly any clean looks, and didn't have to move laterally nearly as much. As a result, he looked more comfortable and made all the expected saves. Also, the Flyers blocked 40 shots today, more than the previous two games combined (and double the 20 they blocked in game 3, their previous series high).
-Gustafsson came in and played like a champ. His ice time rose from ~12 minutes in game 5 to ~22 in game 6, nearly all at even strength. That was more than Timonen and Carle at even strength this game. Timonen actually played less than 7.5 minutes at even strength, and 15 overall.
-After going for 1/3 on the power play today, the Flyers percentage dropped to 57% (12/23) for the series. The Pens themselves went 31% (9/29), a damn good number in any other reality, but also gave up 3 shorthanded goals. Mind you, the Pens were one of the best penalty killing teams in the league this year and set a franchise record for PK percentage.
-Crosby was nearly invisible today, and I suspect he is not 100% after getting nailed on the chin by Malkin last game. Malkin was very good, scoring one, hitting a post, and generally wreaking havoc in the Flyers zone around the net.
Penguins Game 5 Review
Okay, so I'm a little late on this one.
Anyway, we actually had a real hockey game this time. The nonsense finally stopped, and the teams simply played hockey. The Flyers started out pretty well, but fell behind in the second period and couldn't squeak out one more goal to come back, though they came pretty close.
I like the Flyers odds in game 6, but this is a real series again.
Notes:
-Goaltending. Before you say anything about either team getting a goaltending advantage, consider the stats thus far; Bryzgalov, 4.54 GAA, .848%, Fleury, 4.70 GAA, .837%. Equally awful.
Now that doesn't mean it will necessarily continue that way, and it certainly looks to me like Bryzgalov is being affected by injury. His chip fracture in his foot may not be fully healed, and there are rumors his hip is also bad. Either way, he cannot move laterally to the right. On several plays the last two games when the puck goes that way quickly, he doesn't even try to move that way, and just falls on his back and flails his goal stick futilely. This is a major concern for the Flyers.
On the other hand, it would be unwarranted to conclude Fleury has turned the corner and will be better the remainder of the series. A few posts, a few slower whistles, or Danny Briere roofing a rebound as is his specialty, and Fleury gives up 4+ goals that game.
-The Flyers PP is absolutely killing it right now, but no even strength goals since game 3.
-The team scoring first is now 0-5 in this series.
-I despise Malkin. He is such a puke, and a weasel. He was pretty quiet on all fronts through the first 3 games, but once he got his first goal of the series, it seemed to get his blood pumping. Since then, he has headhunted Grossmann with a blind-side headshot, tried to castrate Couturier with his stick, and also blindsided Couturier up high away from the puck. This has been Malkin's MO for years, and you'll notice he only strikes other players when they are not looking. Slash, trip, punch, high-hits, and only to players who are distracted and looking the other way.
-Speaking of Grossman, he skated yesterday. I suppose there's a small chance he could play, though that would be awfully quick after an unofficial concussion. The Flyers could definitely use his size and shot blocking.
-JVR returned the lineup, but only played 7:31, the least of any forward. Hopefully he's well enough to play more minutes and carry the puck. Lilja and Kubina actually played fewer minutes, as obviously Laviolette doesn't trust them right now.
Anyway, we actually had a real hockey game this time. The nonsense finally stopped, and the teams simply played hockey. The Flyers started out pretty well, but fell behind in the second period and couldn't squeak out one more goal to come back, though they came pretty close.
I like the Flyers odds in game 6, but this is a real series again.
Notes:
-Goaltending. Before you say anything about either team getting a goaltending advantage, consider the stats thus far; Bryzgalov, 4.54 GAA, .848%, Fleury, 4.70 GAA, .837%. Equally awful.
Now that doesn't mean it will necessarily continue that way, and it certainly looks to me like Bryzgalov is being affected by injury. His chip fracture in his foot may not be fully healed, and there are rumors his hip is also bad. Either way, he cannot move laterally to the right. On several plays the last two games when the puck goes that way quickly, he doesn't even try to move that way, and just falls on his back and flails his goal stick futilely. This is a major concern for the Flyers.
On the other hand, it would be unwarranted to conclude Fleury has turned the corner and will be better the remainder of the series. A few posts, a few slower whistles, or Danny Briere roofing a rebound as is his specialty, and Fleury gives up 4+ goals that game.
-The Flyers PP is absolutely killing it right now, but no even strength goals since game 3.
-The team scoring first is now 0-5 in this series.
-I despise Malkin. He is such a puke, and a weasel. He was pretty quiet on all fronts through the first 3 games, but once he got his first goal of the series, it seemed to get his blood pumping. Since then, he has headhunted Grossmann with a blind-side headshot, tried to castrate Couturier with his stick, and also blindsided Couturier up high away from the puck. This has been Malkin's MO for years, and you'll notice he only strikes other players when they are not looking. Slash, trip, punch, high-hits, and only to players who are distracted and looking the other way.
-Speaking of Grossman, he skated yesterday. I suppose there's a small chance he could play, though that would be awfully quick after an unofficial concussion. The Flyers could definitely use his size and shot blocking.
-JVR returned the lineup, but only played 7:31, the least of any forward. Hopefully he's well enough to play more minutes and carry the puck. Lilja and Kubina actually played fewer minutes, as obviously Laviolette doesn't trust them right now.
Thursday, April 19, 2012
Penguins Game 4 Review
Well that didn't go as planned.
I suppose it was the Flyers turn to wilt as the game went on. The Flyers took the early lead due on early PPs due to some very tight officiating, and then the Penguins took the game away, capitalizing on an endless stream of penalties.
Aside from that, the Flyers took their foot of the gas pedal tonight, and the Penguins simply played focused hockey. The question will be, did the Penguins regain control of themselves in time? Probably not. If they don't win game 5, what happened tonight is merely an inconsequential blip on the radar.
It will be interesting to see what happens with the Penguins back on home ice. Nothing surprises me in this series anymore. The Flyers would do well to simply forget the whole game, and dig in for a trip into enemy territory.
Notes:
-A major issue is the health of Grossmann. He took 2 illegal headshots, and left the game early with an "upper body injury." This is the first;
My mortal enemy, Malkin has finally emerged this series. Gets his first goal, and on his next shift throws his first dirty check of the series. This is a blatant attempt to blindside a player in the head, and is clearly illegal under Rule 48.1, illegal check to the head. Malkin threw out his shoulder in a completely gratuitous fashion, and there is no excuse. So intent is Malkin on headhunting, that his lunge to do so caused him to fall down after the hit.
Grossmann may have survived this hit, but then he took another one.
This hit by Kennedy is not as gratuitous, but it also walks the line of illegal high hit to the head. The NHL puts quite a bit of emphasis on injury sustained, so any claims the Flyers may have for supplementary discipline may be mooted by the fact that neither hit was individually responsible for the injury.
If Grossman flops, or if he is hit by someone other than Malkin, a suspension is likely for a clearly predatory and intentional hit to the head. As it is, the Flyers may be without their best shutdown defenseman while Malkin skates away without even a minor penalty to his name. Clearly the officials are still clueless on detecting headshots, as how can you miss a blatant headshot call in a game when you are calling every little ticky-tack penalty otherwise (20 minor penalty calls!)?
-Giroux did not play in the third period last night either. Hopefully just a precaution in a game that was out of reach.
-Bryzgalov was really fighting the puck last night. Moving slowly, to have no idea where the puck was after stopping a shot. If momentum means anything, Fleury got a hold of himself last night, while Bryzgalov got pulled. Nothing in this series is that tidy however.
-Before the series, I said scoring the first goal, crucial in today's NHL wouldn't matter much. I was a little off on that one, as scoring the first goal this series has been crucial--the team scoring first is 0-4 in this series.
-How crazy is this series? The next highest scoring playoff series this year is Detroit v. Nashville, who have combined for 19 goals in 4 games. The Flyers and Pens have combined for 20 goals in the first period, and 45 overall. I haven't even looked at the math for penalty minutes either, which is also off the charts.
I suppose it was the Flyers turn to wilt as the game went on. The Flyers took the early lead due on early PPs due to some very tight officiating, and then the Penguins took the game away, capitalizing on an endless stream of penalties.
Aside from that, the Flyers took their foot of the gas pedal tonight, and the Penguins simply played focused hockey. The question will be, did the Penguins regain control of themselves in time? Probably not. If they don't win game 5, what happened tonight is merely an inconsequential blip on the radar.
It will be interesting to see what happens with the Penguins back on home ice. Nothing surprises me in this series anymore. The Flyers would do well to simply forget the whole game, and dig in for a trip into enemy territory.
Notes:
-A major issue is the health of Grossmann. He took 2 illegal headshots, and left the game early with an "upper body injury." This is the first;
My mortal enemy, Malkin has finally emerged this series. Gets his first goal, and on his next shift throws his first dirty check of the series. This is a blatant attempt to blindside a player in the head, and is clearly illegal under Rule 48.1, illegal check to the head. Malkin threw out his shoulder in a completely gratuitous fashion, and there is no excuse. So intent is Malkin on headhunting, that his lunge to do so caused him to fall down after the hit.
Grossmann may have survived this hit, but then he took another one.
This hit by Kennedy is not as gratuitous, but it also walks the line of illegal high hit to the head. The NHL puts quite a bit of emphasis on injury sustained, so any claims the Flyers may have for supplementary discipline may be mooted by the fact that neither hit was individually responsible for the injury.
If Grossman flops, or if he is hit by someone other than Malkin, a suspension is likely for a clearly predatory and intentional hit to the head. As it is, the Flyers may be without their best shutdown defenseman while Malkin skates away without even a minor penalty to his name. Clearly the officials are still clueless on detecting headshots, as how can you miss a blatant headshot call in a game when you are calling every little ticky-tack penalty otherwise (20 minor penalty calls!)?
-Giroux did not play in the third period last night either. Hopefully just a precaution in a game that was out of reach.
-Bryzgalov was really fighting the puck last night. Moving slowly, to have no idea where the puck was after stopping a shot. If momentum means anything, Fleury got a hold of himself last night, while Bryzgalov got pulled. Nothing in this series is that tidy however.
-Before the series, I said scoring the first goal, crucial in today's NHL wouldn't matter much. I was a little off on that one, as scoring the first goal this series has been crucial--the team scoring first is 0-4 in this series.
-How crazy is this series? The next highest scoring playoff series this year is Detroit v. Nashville, who have combined for 19 goals in 4 games. The Flyers and Pens have combined for 20 goals in the first period, and 45 overall. I haven't even looked at the math for penalty minutes either, which is also off the charts.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)