Monthly Post Recap

In the month of September, I wrote the following pieces over at Broad Street Buzz about the Flyers.

• Steve Mason Can't Get No Respect
• AHL the Best Place for Ghost...For Now
• Flyers Bounce-Back Players and What to Expect
• Figuring Out the Schenn Brothers Future in Philadelphia
• 3 Gagne Playoff Highlights to Remembers as he Retires
• The Top 20 Flyers Nicknames and Slogans

Also, I'm still doing a Flyers flipboard magazine of news links.  It's here.

Out of Hibernation

Yes, the time has come to bring this blog out of hibernation.  The Olympics are over, the trade deadline looms, and the stretch run beckons.  A good a time as any to start again!

Soooo, to begin with Flyers talk.  It was a productive weekend for the Flyers, taking 4 points from division opponents.  They are currently in second place, but it's all so tight, that doesn't mean much.  A bad week or so and they could easily fall several spots.

I don't have much new to say about the team really, but it does appear the team will go as far as Voracek, Giroux and Mason can take them.  Those are the real make-or-break players for me.

Also, this is old news, but let's take a minute to marvel at the Flyers' third period excellence.  With the win yesterday, the Flyers extended their franchise record of 12 wins in a season when trailing in the 3rd period.  Simply setting the record is impressive (it was held by the powerful 1997 Lindros Stanley Cup finals team), but more impressive is where they came from.

Last year, the Flyers were -15 in the 3rd period, 28th in the league.  When Laviolette was fired this year, they were being outscored 6-1 in the 3rd period.  Now the Flyers comeback like crazy, are 2nd in the league in 3rd period goals, and are +9 overall in the 3rd.  Where did this come from?  It's hard to say.  I'll just enjoy it for what it is.

Trade Deadline
The NHL trade deadline is Wednesday at 3pm.  I don't expect (nor do I want) the Flyers to be buyers at the deadline this year.  They are missing too many pieces to make a rental worthwhile, and lack disposable pieces to trade away.  Still, the trade deadline could be pretty interesting league-wide.

The Blues have already made a big move getting Ott and Miller from Buffalo.  They look primed right now. 

Kesler wants out in Vancouver, and reportedly Pittsburgh has already made a big offer (please Flyers stay out of this---there is no room for him on this roster).

The Islanders are almost surely trading Thomas Vanek and Andrew MacDonald.

The Rangers may trade their captain if they can't get Callahan signed, and Marty St. Louis is another captain that wants to be traded (a ridiculous story overall).

Moulson?  Ehrhoff?  Edler?

There's a lot to chew on.  Granted, trade deadlines are a lot of talk and a little action the last few years, but the cap is going up next year, and teams can trade salary so maybe we'll see some action.

Regarding the Flyers, the only trades acceptable to me are for long-term investments on defense.  I personally believe the Flyers must rebuild their defense from scratch, so any youth or quality is welcome.  By the same token, Mezo may intrigue some playoff teams looking for depth at the back end of their defensive corps, so he may be heading the other way from Philadelphia.

A Familiar Story

Another season, a familiar pattern of events.  The Flyers lost 3-1 in their opener to the Leafs, and themes of last season begin immediately this year.

First, I'll start with the positives.  Those were good debuts from Lecavalier and Streit.  I can see Streit getting a lot of points this season, and Lecavalier created a lot of chances and the only goal.  Also, Mason looked pretty good, and could not be faulted on any goal (though I do wonder if he could've done better directing the rebounds on the initial shot before the Leafs put in the rebounds for their 1st and 3rd goals).  Overall, lots of pressure from the Flyers the first 30 minutes.

Now the bad, and unfortunately none of this is new.  For all the pressure the Flyers were sustaining, only one goal.  Now Bernier played an excellent game for the Leafs, no doubt about that, but the Flyers also didn't really break down the defense.  They just had better legs at the start against a team that played an emotional game last night.  Of course, the Flyers have never been able to sustain that type of control for 60 minutes.  Once that push faded, the Flyers chances and puck possession really dried up.  And once ahead in the 3rd, the Leafs completely smothered the Flyers with vastly superior puck support and control.  The result at the end of the day was the Flyers being outscored 2-0 at 5-on-5 (the Flyers were 25th in the league in this category last year), and the Flyers came away with 0 points in a game that was tied after 2 periods (they were also awful in this category last year).

It's just one game, and the Leafs could be one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, but it is discouraging to see last season's problems immediately rear their head.

Bryz a Free Bird

So two days ago, catching many off-guard, the Flyers announced that they would buy-out Bryzgalov.  Much speculated but never certain, the Flyers decided to plow ahead.

My read was that the Flyers wanted to buy out Bryz, but would not do so this offseason until they had an alternative locked up.  Even if they want to give Mason significant playing time, they still need another goalie, and Bryz is still a decent quality goalie.

No need to beat dead horses, but Bryzgalov is coming off a decent season from a purely performance standpoint.  The problem is his contract and his attitude.  He has not been a difference maker, and no one wants to tolerate that circus for 7 more years of decent-but-not-great goaltending.

Then when you see quotes as in this piece, Bryzgalov seemed to be accelerating his own departure.  He obviously hates the media here (with some justification), and he just doesn't want to fight the fight anymore to succeed here in a system of play that does not complement his skills well.  All in all, even though I have been somewhat of a Bryz apologist, and recently wrote about the benefits of buying him out next summer, this is not a bad solution.

I also might feel slightly bad for Bryz, getting run out of town and the Flyers making the biggest buyout in NHL history to rid themselves of him, but consider he will effectively be paid $40m for 2 seasons by the Flyers.  Even if he never plays in the NHL again, worse things could happen to someone.

Another factor I did not consider previously was the effect of carrying Bryz this season on the Flyers "tagging space".  The issue there is that a team cannot exceed the present season's salary cap with contracts committed to the following year.  If Bryz was still on the team, his cap hit would be "tagged" to next season's payroll, taking up space the Flyers might otherwise wish to allocate to new deals for Giroux, Couturier and Schenn.  As it stands now, with Mesz and Timonen likely leaving, Bryz and Briere bought out, the Flyers only have $39m committed to the 2014-15 season, and thus have plenty of space to get those guys resigned during this coming season and protect themselves from RFA offer complications.

Goalie Alternatives

Now that the Flyers have a spot to fill, the fun part is evaluating replacement candidates.  The presumption I will make for this analysis is the Flyers want to bring him above simple backup quality, and who will be capable of carrying the load if Mason sputters.

Luongo - The biggest name, first it needs to be said that trading for Luongo is a terrible idea.  He has 9 seasons left at a cap hit of $5.33m.  Giving up assets for the privilege of that contract is insane.  If however the Canucks buy him out (which they clearly don't want to do, but may have no other choice), the Flyers may look into an opportunistic signing.  If you could sign him for a relatively cheap and short contract (say $8m over 2 years), that could really pay off.

Nabokov - This name always seems to come up on my blog.  It appears he will not resign with the Islanders.  Now 37, he had a pretty good season for the Isles but a disappointing playoffs.  A good option, if available for cheap.

Miller - Soon to be 33, a few seasons ago he seemed like a golden boy.  I think his play slipped last season, and he appears to have worn out his welcome speaking his mind in Buffalo.  He's got a big cap hit next season, and then will be a free agent.  If I were the Flyers, I would not trade anything of value for another outspoken goalie who will be a free agent soon.

Emery - Another name that has been on this blog several times before.  A free agent who did not play in the playoffs for the champion Hawks, a regular season line of 17-1, .922% and 3 SOs seems to confirm he is back from his injury concerns.  Again, if cheap and brief, he might be a good signing and a good partner with Mason to compete for job.

Thomas - I'm not 100% sure what his contract status his after sitting out last season, but presuming he is a free agent, and one year deal for him would certainly be interesting.  Now 39, he is only 2 years removed from a historic season, winning the Vezina, Conn Smythe and Stanley Cup.  With he and Mason, the Flyers would certainly have a lot of athleticism in the crease.

Smith - He had a phenomenal season 2 years ago, but that appears to be an anomaly.  Also, we've seen that a goalie succeeding on Phoenix may not mesh well under Laviolette's system.  Pass.

Clearly the common theme among the candidates is that Flyers should be opportunistic, and not commit too many resources to the goaltending situation this offseason.  Let Mason or someone else win the job, rather than chasing a white whale.

Bryz buyout? But when?

Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie8 JunIt's not carved in stone, but in spite of what has been said in past, I expect PHI is likely to use compliance buyout on Ilya Bryzgalov. 

Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie8 JunAlso, PHI is in market for D and may be willing to move one of their young centres - B Schenn or Couturier - for the right deal.

And with that, a whole new round of discussion began.

I've already written that a Briere buyout is likely, but I have not written anything about use of the second buyout. I think most fans want to see it used on Bryzgalov, which may be a good idea.

Bryzgalov has 7 years left at $5.66 cap hit. At this point, it's not the cap hit that's the problem, it's the contract length. That is the 9th biggest cap hit among NHL goalies, and very close to the new contracts signed by Quick and Howard. Bryz hasn't been great, but he hasn't been terrible either, and paying an experienced goalie that number isn't unreasonable. If he had a year or two left at that number, you just let him play it out.

The problem is, I don't think the Flyers want to hitch their wagon to him for the next 7 years. He hasn't been a difference maker, has problems with the local media, and perhaps his teammates. Also, no one will take that contract in a trade, leaving a buyout the only option.

(For the purposes of this post, I am going to assume the Flyers have the financial means and will to pay Bryz to go away, which would be about $1.5m/year for about a dozen years)

If the Flyers decide to buy him out, they need another goalie. Handing Mason the starting job right now would be foolish.

As far UFAs go, this offseason Nik Backstrom, Evgeni Nabokov, Mike Smith, Ray Emery and Tim Thomas are available. Next offseason, potential options might be Lundqvist, Miller, Hiller, Halak, Vokoun and Crawford. Guys like Vokoun, Nabokov, Backstrom and Thomas are old and might be available at a reasonable cap hit on a short term deal. Lundqvist and Crawford could cost a mint (if even available).

The other option is a trade. There's already some talk about the Flyers' interest in Bernier in LA. My biggest concern with that route is that the Flyers don't have too many tradeable assets, and an asset used acquiring a goalie cannot be used to acquire a defensemen. Therefore I'm not crazy about the idea of trading Read to LA, as has been floated.

I think the Flyers should give Mason a full season to see how much resources they should devote in terms of cap space and trade assets to solidify the goalie situation. if he stinks, then you do what you gotta do, but if he seizes the job, problem solved. Therefore I lean towards buying out Bryzgalov next offseason, not this offseason.

The only wrinkle to that is the Flyers want to try Nabokov short term (who is is still an above average goalie), or roll the dice with Thomas or Emery. (Hey, this discussion of Emery (1, 2) and Nabokov sounds familiar...).

So my bottom line is, I'd probably buy out Bryz next summer, but not this one.

Next up, McKenzie's second tweet....