Bryz a Free Bird

So two days ago, catching many off-guard, the Flyers announced that they would buy-out Bryzgalov.  Much speculated but never certain, the Flyers decided to plow ahead.

My read was that the Flyers wanted to buy out Bryz, but would not do so this offseason until they had an alternative locked up.  Even if they want to give Mason significant playing time, they still need another goalie, and Bryz is still a decent quality goalie.

No need to beat dead horses, but Bryzgalov is coming off a decent season from a purely performance standpoint.  The problem is his contract and his attitude.  He has not been a difference maker, and no one wants to tolerate that circus for 7 more years of decent-but-not-great goaltending.

Then when you see quotes as in this piece, Bryzgalov seemed to be accelerating his own departure.  He obviously hates the media here (with some justification), and he just doesn't want to fight the fight anymore to succeed here in a system of play that does not complement his skills well.  All in all, even though I have been somewhat of a Bryz apologist, and recently wrote about the benefits of buying him out next summer, this is not a bad solution.

I also might feel slightly bad for Bryz, getting run out of town and the Flyers making the biggest buyout in NHL history to rid themselves of him, but consider he will effectively be paid $40m for 2 seasons by the Flyers.  Even if he never plays in the NHL again, worse things could happen to someone.

Another factor I did not consider previously was the effect of carrying Bryz this season on the Flyers "tagging space".  The issue there is that a team cannot exceed the present season's salary cap with contracts committed to the following year.  If Bryz was still on the team, his cap hit would be "tagged" to next season's payroll, taking up space the Flyers might otherwise wish to allocate to new deals for Giroux, Couturier and Schenn.  As it stands now, with Mesz and Timonen likely leaving, Bryz and Briere bought out, the Flyers only have $39m committed to the 2014-15 season, and thus have plenty of space to get those guys resigned during this coming season and protect themselves from RFA offer complications.

Goalie Alternatives

Now that the Flyers have a spot to fill, the fun part is evaluating replacement candidates.  The presumption I will make for this analysis is the Flyers want to bring him above simple backup quality, and who will be capable of carrying the load if Mason sputters.

Luongo - The biggest name, first it needs to be said that trading for Luongo is a terrible idea.  He has 9 seasons left at a cap hit of $5.33m.  Giving up assets for the privilege of that contract is insane.  If however the Canucks buy him out (which they clearly don't want to do, but may have no other choice), the Flyers may look into an opportunistic signing.  If you could sign him for a relatively cheap and short contract (say $8m over 2 years), that could really pay off.

Nabokov - This name always seems to come up on my blog.  It appears he will not resign with the Islanders.  Now 37, he had a pretty good season for the Isles but a disappointing playoffs.  A good option, if available for cheap.

Miller - Soon to be 33, a few seasons ago he seemed like a golden boy.  I think his play slipped last season, and he appears to have worn out his welcome speaking his mind in Buffalo.  He's got a big cap hit next season, and then will be a free agent.  If I were the Flyers, I would not trade anything of value for another outspoken goalie who will be a free agent soon.

Emery - Another name that has been on this blog several times before.  A free agent who did not play in the playoffs for the champion Hawks, a regular season line of 17-1, .922% and 3 SOs seems to confirm he is back from his injury concerns.  Again, if cheap and brief, he might be a good signing and a good partner with Mason to compete for job.

Thomas - I'm not 100% sure what his contract status his after sitting out last season, but presuming he is a free agent, and one year deal for him would certainly be interesting.  Now 39, he is only 2 years removed from a historic season, winning the Vezina, Conn Smythe and Stanley Cup.  With he and Mason, the Flyers would certainly have a lot of athleticism in the crease.

Smith - He had a phenomenal season 2 years ago, but that appears to be an anomaly.  Also, we've seen that a goalie succeeding on Phoenix may not mesh well under Laviolette's system.  Pass.

Clearly the common theme among the candidates is that Flyers should be opportunistic, and not commit too many resources to the goaltending situation this offseason.  Let Mason or someone else win the job, rather than chasing a white whale.

Bryz buyout? But when?

Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie8 JunIt's not carved in stone, but in spite of what has been said in past, I expect PHI is likely to use compliance buyout on Ilya Bryzgalov. 

Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie8 JunAlso, PHI is in market for D and may be willing to move one of their young centres - B Schenn or Couturier - for the right deal.

And with that, a whole new round of discussion began.

I've already written that a Briere buyout is likely, but I have not written anything about use of the second buyout. I think most fans want to see it used on Bryzgalov, which may be a good idea.

Bryzgalov has 7 years left at $5.66 cap hit. At this point, it's not the cap hit that's the problem, it's the contract length. That is the 9th biggest cap hit among NHL goalies, and very close to the new contracts signed by Quick and Howard. Bryz hasn't been great, but he hasn't been terrible either, and paying an experienced goalie that number isn't unreasonable. If he had a year or two left at that number, you just let him play it out.

The problem is, I don't think the Flyers want to hitch their wagon to him for the next 7 years. He hasn't been a difference maker, has problems with the local media, and perhaps his teammates. Also, no one will take that contract in a trade, leaving a buyout the only option.

(For the purposes of this post, I am going to assume the Flyers have the financial means and will to pay Bryz to go away, which would be about $1.5m/year for about a dozen years)

If the Flyers decide to buy him out, they need another goalie. Handing Mason the starting job right now would be foolish.

As far UFAs go, this offseason Nik Backstrom, Evgeni Nabokov, Mike Smith, Ray Emery and Tim Thomas are available. Next offseason, potential options might be Lundqvist, Miller, Hiller, Halak, Vokoun and Crawford. Guys like Vokoun, Nabokov, Backstrom and Thomas are old and might be available at a reasonable cap hit on a short term deal. Lundqvist and Crawford could cost a mint (if even available).

The other option is a trade. There's already some talk about the Flyers' interest in Bernier in LA. My biggest concern with that route is that the Flyers don't have too many tradeable assets, and an asset used acquiring a goalie cannot be used to acquire a defensemen. Therefore I'm not crazy about the idea of trading Read to LA, as has been floated.

I think the Flyers should give Mason a full season to see how much resources they should devote in terms of cap space and trade assets to solidify the goalie situation. if he stinks, then you do what you gotta do, but if he seizes the job, problem solved. Therefore I lean towards buying out Bryzgalov next offseason, not this offseason.

The only wrinkle to that is the Flyers want to try Nabokov short term (who is is still an above average goalie), or roll the dice with Thomas or Emery. (Hey, this discussion of Emery (1, 2) and Nabokov sounds familiar...).

So my bottom line is, I'd probably buy out Bryz next summer, but not this one.

Next up, McKenzie's second tweet....

Get Your Story Straight

This week, Bobrovsky was named as a finalist for the Vezina trophy.  Many believe him to be the favorite.  Why can't the Flyers get young goalies like this?

Actually, it's basically time to cue the hand-wringing of Flyers fans and writers.  The predictable reactions are "I knew we shouldn't have traded him!", or "the Flyers are a joke of an organization!"  Hand-wringing aside, what really happened?

The thing about having a blog like this is that there's no hiding your past statements.  Indeed, most of my reason for writing this blog is just to get my own story straight.  Let's recap events:

2010-11 season - The Flyers sign Bobrovsky, and by most accounts he is destined for the AHL.  Instead he impresses in the preseason and Leighton is awful, and he becomes the starter.  He has the job heading down the stretch run, but after a shocking run of results, he gets yanked for good in the playoffs.  At the time, I passionately argued that he was not ready to lead a winning team.  I do not regret a word of that.

2011 offseason - Given the absolute goaltending debacle of the playoffs (using 3 goalies, pulling your starter 5 TIMES in 11 games), the Flyers needed to make a move in net.  I argued then, and still believe now, it would've been insane to give Bobrovsky the keys the team at the time.  My personal plan was to acquire Nabokov on a short term contract, giving the team a proven #1 and allowing Bobrovsky to develop as the backup.  (Or alternatively, sniff around and try to lowball Vokoun, who in fact signed for very little with Washington).  Instead, the Flyers went big and acquired Bryzgalov.  With Bryz in the fold on a 9-year deal, I would've traded Bobrovsky right then because I didn't see a future for him here anymore.

2011-2012 season - Bryzgalov had a rough season, and Bobrovsky had a few stretches as starter.  He didn't run with it, and ended the season with a significantly worse stat line than Bryz.  Either way, Bryz wasn't going anywhere, and I again thought they should trade Bobrovsky since he had no future here.

2012 offseason -  Ultimately, the Flyers traded him for a 2nd and two 4th round picks, which was more than I thought he would fetch as his trade value declined after his mediocre sophomore year.  At the time, I remarked there was no way the Flyers would get a fairly high first round pick for him, as the Avs gave up for Varlamov in the 2011 offseason.  He reminded me of Nittymaki, who was capable of enticing play at times (MVP of 2006 Winter Olympics), but never proved he could be a long term #1 option.

2013 strike season - Well, we know what happened here.

So what's my story?  My story is that no-way no-how was Bob ready to be the #1 after the 2011 playoff debacle.  I thought the Flyers should sign a veteran goalie to be the #1 and give Bob time as backup for another year or two.  Instead, we got Bryzgalov and a 9 year deal.  After that happened, I didn't see a future as a Flyer for him.

In the last few days, Frank Seravalli has tweeted that the Avs wanted Bob MORE than they wanted Varlamov in summer 2011.  I find that a little hard to believe, but if the Avs did offer their 2012 first round pick for Bob, the Flyers were fools not to take it with Bryz already signed long term.

Either way, the Flyers traded him the following offseason for a decent but not overwhelming return.  I did not expect this season from him, and it will be interesting to see how he performs next year in a full length season as the undisputed #1.

I'm sticking to my story that once Bryz was signed, Bob's fate as a Flyers was sealed.  This very well may turn out to be a big mistake long term, but I will call bullshit on people who cry "we should've given him the job in summer 2011 and rode it out!"

Dullest Deadline Day Ever

So basically nothing happened.  The Flyers didn't do anything (which makes sense), but neither did anyone else.  No trade for Nash, Brown, Bernier, Nabokov....nada.

Regarding the Flyers, there was no room on this roster.  Their major obstacle is goaltending, but they already have so much committed to goalies this season and in Bryzgalov long term, how can you make a short term fix?  There was no simple way to manage the situation.  I thought bringing in Nabokov was an option, mainly because he is having a very good season and will be a UFA, so it would be a clear upgrade with a finite end point.  As for some chatter on guys like Giguere or Theodore, why bother?

JVR also can finally exhale, at least until the offseason.  Multiple reports said the Sharks made a hard push for him this morning, but the discussions never got far.

Outside of Philadelphia, apparently trade prices were very high, scaring off most buyers.  That makes sense for teams to say deadline acquisitions are overrated and we're certainly not going to pay these prices, however I would expect the market to correct itself.  If the prevailing prices are so high, you would think that teams who were leaning against selling would jump in if their assets were fetching such high returns.  Apparently the Jets were the only team to get that memo, trading Oduya even though they are still in the playoff hunt.

Still Trading

The Flyers completed another trade yesterday, acquiring Pavel Kubina for the 2nd round pick acquired from Florida for Kris Versteeg (which is a 2012 or 2013 at Florida's discretion), a 2013 4th round pick and Jon Kalinski.  Kalinski is pretty much a throw-in--he performed adequately for the Flyers in the past, but has been surpassed by other players on the Flyers call-up depth chart.

Together the Flyers acquired Pavel Kubina and Niklas Grossman, and traded away FLA's 2012/2013 2nd round pick, LA's 2nd round pick in 2012 (acquired in Richards trade), Minnesota's 3rd round pick in 2013 (acquired in the Powe trade), and a 4th round pick in 2013.

I have previously wrote how Grossman fits the Flyers needs for a defensive defensemen with size that has been needed since Pronger went down, and also how Kubina's skill set matches the Flyers needs.  In many ways, this goes back to what I said in December--that Pronger's absence created defensive and power play holes that would likely need to be filled by multiple new defensemen.

Focusing specifically on Kubina, I like his skill set, but there is an open question if his skills are declining.  I guess we'll find out.

More broadly, the wisdom of trading a handful of draft picks for players that may only be 2 month rentals has to be questioned.  These trades definitely make the Flyers a marginally better team, but not necessarily a contender.  Too often Flyers games this season turn into anarchy on ice.  It makes them a lot of fun to watch, but defensive calamity and backbreaking goals never feel far away.  These trades cannot address deeper issues that have persisted into last season.  Holmgren, it seems, is incapable of holding onto draft picks.

More to Come?
The Flyers name is still being kicked around in rumors for Nash and Nabokov.  I'm not sure how much sense it makes to acquire either player, particularly with the Bryzgalov situation and Nabokov being another rental player for a team that may be staring at a very short playoff run. 

Also, Nash is super expensive, and may not be worth the assets and cap space.  It was widely reported yesterday that the Columbus GM was at the Flyers game yesterday and met with Holmgren for 45 minutes, but I will take Darren Dreger's word for his summary of the situation: "Price too high for Flyers(at moment) for Nash. May re-engage later. JVR,Bobrovski, Schenn or Couturier believed to be part of asking price."

A JVR+Bobrovsky deal basis isn't too bad, as I do think JVR will never be the player Nash is.  Consider this chart as evidence of that;

This consideration, however has to be weighed against the fact that it's been 3 years since Nash hit the 40 goal mark, and Nash has only hit 70 points once in his career.  I have also previously written that goal scorers tend to be their most productive in their early 20s.  Now I know the obvious counter to this line of thinking is that Nash has been playing with crap players in Columbus and his production will immediately jump elsewhere, but it is very dangerous to expect significantly different production merely by new teammates.  I'm not sure I could bring myself to part with Schenn or Cooter for Nash.

Odds and Ends

Now the the Flyers have finally had a few days off, there a few odds and ends to discuss.

Rinaldo Suspension

Zac Rinaldo was suspended for two games for his hit on Ericsson, which upon initial look I didn't even think was a penalty.

Upon further review, I think the video lays out a clear case.  What Rinaldo did WAS a charge, under the rule as it has stood as long as memory serves.  Admittedly, in the past, players have gotten away with far worse, but the undercurrent here is that league brass can't like the idea of a young 4th liner who plays a few minutes a night running guys just days after being fined for previous disciplinary issues.  This is precisely the kind of behavior, that in days of yore would've been settled on the ice.  Now that justice isn't doled out like that, other remedies are necessary.

Nash Trade
Given the current joke status of the Blue Jackets franchise, the Rick Nash trade talks have opened up.  Everybody wants a player like that, but how much do you give up for a guy who's only broke the 70 point mark once in his career?  He's signed forever at $7.8m cap hit.  I wouldn't think the Flyers would have any interest, but alas their name keeps coming up.  I feel like it's the Stamkos story all over.  Like with Stamkos, I am deeply skeptical of the wisdom of trading for Nash here.  I also haven't read anything at all about what the Flyers may be offering, but I could see JVR or Bobrovsky as players that the Flyers would be willing to trade that would interest a re-building Columbus team.

Nabokov Performing Well
I have to be honest, I felt like I was taking crazy pills this offseason when I would think of the Flyers acquiring Nabokov.  I saw a proven NHL allstar with a negligible cap hit--how could you not be interested?  Yet there was never any buzz about the Flyers going after him.  Well now Nabokov is looking pretty good with a 2.24 GAA and a 925 save percentage.  How many Flyers fans would like to go back in time and trade for one year of Nabokov rather than have to deal with Bryz's 9 year contract?

The Goalie Options

I've made clear my opinion that the Flyers must do something to stabilize their goaltending this offseason.  They have basically no cap space to work with, so sacrifices will have to be made.  Either way, here are the options (name, age, last season's numbers)

The most proven options

-Tomas Vokoun, 34, 22-28-5, 922 save percentage, $5.7m cap hit

Vokoun has consistently performed well for several season, compiling an impressive 924 save percentage over 4 years in Florida.  The thing is, he has been toiling for mediocre teams for years, so he's never seen the second round of the playoffs, so he may be an unproven commodity in the playoffs.  He likely will take a pay cut, but he will still cost you.  The Flyers would have to dump salary elsewhere to compete in the bidding for him, but it's doable without taking a hammer to the nucleus of the team.

Ilya Bryzgalov, 30, 36-20-10, 921 save percentage, $4.25m cap hit

-Bryzgalov is, in my opinion, the only real number one goalie available in the sense that he will command a long term, high salary contract, and should be entering the prime of his career.  Unless the Flyers move a Richards or Carter, they can't compete with those offers.  If there was no salary cap he is the guy I would target (I'm not troubled by his poor postseason this year), but that's not the world we live in.

Wild cards

-Dwayne Roloson, 41, 24-25-5, 913 save percentage, $2.5m cap hit

Roloson is old, and he looked like a career backup when he was 30.  He blossomed in Minnesota, and he keeps defying expectations, particularly this season with the Lightning.  He's got to retire sometime, but I suspect he'll keep playing as a long as teams will give him one year offers.  His price should be reasonable, and offering him a short term contract would work well for the Flyers if they want to leave the door open for Bobrovsky to seize the job in the next year or two.  This is assuming of course that the Lightning don't resign him, who may be eager to reward one of the catalysts for their season.

-Evgeni Nabokov, 35, 2010 numbers-44-16-10, 922 save percentage, $5.375/570k

Nabokov is a very interesting option.  One of the top goalies in the league for years, he recorded three straight 40 win seasons (only the 2nd time in NHL history someone has done that), then left for Russia last season.  He came back at a cut price with Detroit, but the Islanders claimed him and he didn't report.  There is some question about his contract status, but it appears the Isles will have him at their disposal this season at an appallingly low price of $570k, who presumably will be fielding offers from teams exactly like the Flyers.  Unless you think his skills fell apart by one year off, or that he is lazy and worthless, there is no doubt that he is a premium NHL performer.  The Flyers also reportedly made their best effort to sign him at the last draft, but Nabokov decided to go back to Russia, as presumably the Flyers didn't have the cap space to meet his demands.  All in all, I think the Flyers would be crazy not to take a stab at a goalie with his track record and at a price that would make him one of (if not the absolute) lowest paid goalies in the entire league.  There's also the Russian factor, being an experienced Russian-speaking NHL player for Bobrovsky to lean on.

Ray Emery, 28, 7-2, 926 save percentage, $500k

-Three years ago it was his attitude, and last year it was a career threatening hip injury (think Bo Jackson).  No one really doubts his ability, but there's always been something holding Emery back.  His comeback was impressive this season for the Ducks, though such a limited audition will mean he likely won't be able to command big dollars or a long contract.  This puts him in within the reach of the Flyers.  Are the Flyers up for another ride with Ray?  They were reportedly one of 3 teams Emery was negotiating with this spring, as discussed here.

Fading stars

-J.S. Giguere, 33, 11-11-4, 900 save percentage, $6m cap hit

Seems like a long time ago Giguere was a playoff hero for the Ducks (leading to that huge contract, which is finally expiring).  He's not that old, but hasn't performed at that high level in a few seasons.  I don't think he'll regain that form (which hasn't been seen for 3 years), and I think he should be no better than plan E or F for the Flyers.

-Marty Turco, 35, 11-11-3, 897 save percentage, $1.3m cap hit

Had several good season in Dallas, but a spotty playoff record there and is coming off a very disappointing year for Chicago.  He was supposed to be a bargain at that price--instead he lost the job to a rookie (who admittedly turned a lot of heads in the playoffs).  I see him in a similar light to the prospect of signing Giguere.

-Jose Theodore, 34, 15-11-3, 916 save percentage, $1.1m cap hit

Coming off a strong season, but nowhere near the goalie that won the Vezina in 2002 with a gaudy 931 save percentage, as that season has proved to be an anomaly.  Personally, I don't think very highly off him and feel comfortable just saying "no thanks."

-Pascal Leclaire, 28, 4-7, 908 save percentage, $3.8m cap hit

He was supposed to be a star for Columbus, being the #8 pick in 2001.  For a while he seemed on that track, but he lost his job to rookie phenom Steve Mason (who has himself faded).  He was shipped off to Ottawa with hopes of claiming the #1 job there long term, but disappointed.  The mediocrity of his last few seasons are probably enough to keep the Flyers away, though I wouldn't be shocked if he has a career revival.  I'm not really interested in the Flyers having another "hope-and-pray" goalie though.

Conclusion

I don't really like any of the fading star options, and I think the first options for the Flyers should be Roloson and Nabokov.  Both are proven winners (though aging), and both are affordable and will be on short term contracts that fit in with the Flyers hopes for Bobrovsky to be the long term solution.  Nabokov even has the Russian intangible in his favor.

If I were the Flyers, I'd be pushing hard for a trade with the Isles.  The Flyers don't have many prospects to deal to a young Isles team, but Matt Carle would be a start in trade discussions.

If the Flyers can't trade for Nabokov or the Lightning re-sign Roloson before he hits the market, I would sniff around Vokoun or consider Emery round 2.  Obviously the Flyers still like him somewhat based on their interest in February.

Lastly, the Flyers could trade from someone like Cory Schneider in Vancouver who looks very good but is likely stuck behind a big star for playing time, but that opens a can of worms of candidates and the trade assets required to complete a trade, so I won't go into that.

Nabokov Claimed by Isles

"I was surprised they picked me up. I was like, 'Wow, what's the point?'''

That pretty much sums it up. Not surprisingly, Nabokov is telling the Isles to piss off, and is refusing to report.

Why would the Isles, a team going absolutely nowhere this season, claim a player who clearly only wants to come back to the NHL to play for a contender?

"I dont see why somebody who has this opportunity would not want to play and fulfill his contract," Wang said. "It's nuts, right? I don't understand any of it."

It would explain much of it, if this was an executive decision by clueless/mysterious/insane meddling owner Wang.

I can't see any scenario under which Nabokov plays out the season for the Isles. He was willing to walk away from bigger contract offers in the offseason, so presumably he won't hesitate to walk away from a small contract with an irrelevant NHL team.

It will be a matter of how long the Isles will push, or if some kind of arrangement can be reached. By his own admittance Nabokov is not ready to jump straight into action, so maybe he could spend a few weeks with the Isles, getting himself together and help them get through an injury crisis, then they'll put him back on waivers.

Hard to predict anything the Isles will do though.

Nabokov?

Reports tonight are that Nabokov has signed with Detroit for $570,000.

Wow. Nabokov is getting old, but by any account, he still would be an above average goalie.

The real interesting part is that as a mid-season signing from abroad, Nabokov has to clear waivers. Will no one put a claim on a goalie of his caliber for such a small price tag? I find that hard to believe.

Two things to consider-- 1) if a team like the Isles take him, he can say 'forget this' and refuse to report, and 2) a team can't claim him and trade him (he would have to clear waivers again before a trade could go through).

13.23 In the event a professional or former professional Player plays in a league outside North America after the start of the NHL Regular Season, other than on Loan from his Club, he may thereafter play in the NHL during that Playing Season (including Playoffs) only if he has first either cleared or been obtained via Waivers. For the balance of the Playing Season, any such Player who has been obtained via Waivers may be Traded or Loaned only after again clearing Waivers or through Waiver claim.

So, that means only teams who are looking for a number one goalie and are competitive should put in a claim. I know one team that fits that description....

Unfortunately I believe the Flyers would be dead last in waiver claim priority as they currently have the best record in the NHL. But as I said above, Nabokov might walk away if a crap team takes him, so all the teams with high waiver priority might not bother. Other playoff bound teams like Vancouver, New York, Pittsburgh, Boston, Dallas, Anaheim, Montreal, Phoenix...etc, are set in net.

I was planning on a future post on the Flyers' goalie options later, but suffice it to say for now that Bobby-Boucher in net is the obvious achilles heel of this otherwise outstanding team. And if I recall correctly, there were a lot of reports in the offseason that Nabokov was the Flyers number one choice in net but they couldn't reach an agreement on salary in the Flyers tight cap situation...

If it were me, I'd put in a claim for Nabokov, and if the Flyers got him, send Bobs to the AHL for the rest of the year. They could swallow Nabokov's dirt cheap salary no problem. Maybe the Flyers felt okay with Bobby-Boucher for the moment, but I just couldn't pass up on goalie like Nabokov with 300 career NHL wins who could fall right into their lap at a super cheap price.