JVR's Development

Until the Flyers complete a trade for a defensemen, JVR's name and trade value is going to be thrown around a lot. 

JVR's reputation now in the NHL is still mostly based on his draft status and potential.  His ceiling as a player is VERY high (see playoffs last year), but simply brief flashes isn't good enough for NHL stardom.  Of course this is a common issue with young players, and moreso with "power forwards." 

I think it's fair to say, without detailed analysis, that the Flyers expected more from JVR this season than what he has shown.  I don't blame him for being injured right now, but even before injury issues he was not very impressive.  Should the Flyers be concerned?  Below is a graph of young "power forwards" in the NHL today and their development.

As you can see, JVR isn't the worst of the bunch,  but he's not very impressive.  This season or next is really the expected breakout time.  Notably Kesler and LeClair (who Flyers fans love to bring up about power forwards) were producing less at this age.  That said, it's great that LeClair exploded at age 25, but is there any Flyers fan around that wouldn't mind if JVR remained a 45-50 point player for another 2 years?  Yeah right. 

The point of the matter is that JVR's NHL point production is developing at a so-so rate.  I don't think the Flyers should "give up" on him and cheaply trade him away, but JVR's rise to top line, all star player is far from guaranteed.   Unless his progression jumps, he is in the company of Kesler, Horton, and Backes, but not with Ryan, Perry, Getzlaf and Staal.  I think the Flyers should strongly consider offers that may come in for JVR.

Monthly Update

First, the stats and how they've changed in 2 months since I last did a monthly update.

Goals - 3.31/game (2nd, -1)
Goals against - 2.86/g (22nd, -3)
Faceoffs - 47.8% (27th, +2)
Power play - 20.7% (4th, +8)
Penalty kill - 82.6% (15th, -1)
Shots For - 32.4/g (5th, +3)
Shots Against - 29.0 (8th, -1)

Notes
-The big triumph here is the power play, that has really been clicking lately..  Hartnell has been a big part of that, and the Flyers have been doing a good job with traffic in front getting deflections.

-Giroux and Jagr have slowed down.  Jagr has mainly been slowed down by injuries, and Giroux has yet to re-gain his mojo after the concussion.  I *hope* it's not because of lingering concussion issues.  Giroux is still making plays and getting assists, but his goal scoring is way down.  Since the concussion, he only has 2 goals in 17 games, and has gone goalless in 12 games.  Before the injury, he had 16 goals in 28 games.

-As far as trade options for defensemen go, I saw something online about how the Caps may be shopping Jeff Schultz.  Schultz, is 25, 6'6", in the 2nd year of a $2.75x4 contract, and is a stay at home defensemen.  He has mostly been a healthy scratch since Dale Hunter was hired, but is a former first round pick with 346 games under his belt and played ~20 minutes a night last season.  I am not aware of any indicator that the Flyers actually have interest in Schultz, but he might be the kind of big, defensive defensemen the team is looking to add.  Or maybe the Flyers won't see him as a worth upgrading to from Bourdon, who has been decent.

Back to Work

After the all-star game weekend, or as I treat it, a weekend without hockey, it's time for the Flyers to get back to work.  No real stories sizzling right now, but a few odds and ends floating around.

-The list of potential defensemen trade acquisitions seems to be shrinking, as Tim Gleason has re-signed with Carolina and will be off the market.  In addition, there are indications that Nashville will trade neither Weber nor Suter.  That puts more pressure on a potential Schenn trade for the Flyers?  That, or they start looking elsewhere.

-Speaking of the Schenn trade, that can't happen until JVR returns from a concussion.  JVR, Briere and Jagr are all close to returning from their injuries, but the exact date of return is unclear.  I wouldn't rush it.

-And of course, the goalie issue.  Apparently Bryz will start tonight after having had some time to clear his head.  Laviolette keeps trotting him out, though Bryz isn't getting any better (maybe even worse).  If the playoffs started today, I would play Bob, but there's still 2+ months for things to sort themselves out.  Laviolette will give him every chance to get right, but if he doesn't improve, it would be foolish to make him the playoff starter and expect his play to magically change when the playoffs begin.

-The Carter trade debacle has hit a new low for Columbus.  Apparently the team is actively looking to trade him, but they want a package similar to what they gave the Flyers this offseason.  That's not going to happen.  Either way, the team sucks and there won't be a happy resolution for any party soon.

Thomas Skips the White House

A surprisingly active topic of discussion has been Tim Thomas's decision to skip the Bruins' White House trip as Stanley Cup champions. 

My first thought about this was, who freaking cares?  On second thought, I think Tim Thomas is making a mistake, but not for the reasons you think.

Tim Thomas's decision to skip the White House visit is NOT racist, disrespectful to the President, unpatriotic, or the actions of an ignorant conservative.  Any accusations that he is somehow motivated out by irrational malice towards Obama are completely unfounded.  Second, if he doesn't want to go, that's his prerogative.  James Harrison has twice decided to skip White House visits (under both Bush and Obama), probably for the dumbest reason I've ever read, but it's no skin off my back.

I think Thomas's decision is a mistake simply because he is putting himself before the team.  He is choosing to politically grandstand rather than be with his teammates.  It makes no difference what viewpoint he is expressing, I just don't like players choosing make political speech over their teammates.

I think this story will blow over very quickly for the press and the Bruins, but there it is.

Sitting Ducks in Shootout

Thankfully, the Flyers have spared their fans the pain of seeing their team feebly lose shootouts much this season.  They've only had 3 this year, and predictably lost all three.  How bad are the Flyers in shootouts?  The numbers are below.  Keep in mind that, leaguewide, goalies make the save 67.4% of the time.

-This year, Bryzgalov is 0/5 in shootouts (dead last in NHL by percentage).  Bobrovsky is 1/3 (51st out of 54 in the NHL, by percentage).

-All time, the Flyers are dead last in shootout wins, with 19 (in 56 games).

-All time, Flyers shooters score 28.7% of the time (25th).  Flyers goalies make the save 56.9% of the time (dead last).

Looking at Bryzgalov's futility this season, it made me wonder if wearing a Flyers uniform somehow makes goalies do terribly.

-Bryzgalov; as a Flyer 0% (0/5), as a non-Flyer 66.0% (103/156)

-Bobrovsky; only as a Flyer 45.0% (9/20) -- this is the worst of any individual goalie in the NHL with a minimum of 10 attempts

-Boucher; as a Flyer 55.5% (15/27), as a non-Flyer 53.8%(7/13)

-Biron; as a Flyer 51.4% (19/37), as a non-Flyer 60% (18/30)  -- at 55.2% all time, Biron is second worst of any individual goalie in the NHL with a minimum of 50 attempts

-Emery; as a Flyer 77.8% (7/9), as a non-Flyer 55.8% (24/43)

-Nittymaki; as a Flyer 67.6% (46/68), 81.5% as a non-Flyer (22/27)

Those individual numbers show that, for the most part, the Flyers simply employ goalies who are awful at shootouts.  Bryzgalov's awful numbers this year are just another indication of how terrible a year he is having.  Say what you will about being victimized by deflections this year, or adjusting to a new defensive system--the shootout eliminates all of those variables.  He is simply playing very poorly right now.

And I'll say it again---it is simply a miracle the Flyers won a playoff spot 2 years ago by winning a shootout against the Rangers on the last day of the season.  For point of comparison, Henrik Lundqvist, is the all time leader in shootout wins with 39, and has a 76.4% save percentage.

JVR for Luke Schenn?

The rumors of a trade based on JVR for Luke Schenn got pretty hot and heavy last week, and then JVR was injured.  You can't trade an injured player, so the trade was at least temporarily delayed.  That talk seems to be starting to heat up again.

On paper, the trade makes a lot of sense.  It is a like-for-like trade:
-both players were very high draft picks; JVR #2 in 2007 and Schenn #5 in 2008
-both players have made some noise in the NHL, with Schenn immediately joining the big club as an 18 year old and JVR turning a lot of heads in the playoffs last year
-both players may be seen as underwhelming in their development, with Schenn's ice time down this year and JVR not building off last year's playoffs
-both players are signed to manageable long term contracts

The Flyers need defensemen, the Leafs need size up front.  The trade is merely teams trying to address an organizational need while holding their salary, youth and long term potential constant.

All that said, the devil will be in details.  Flyers fans expect Schenn and other goodies for JVR, and Leafs fan vice-versa.  A rumor I read yesterday is that it will be the Flyers who have to sweeten the pot to complete the deal, and the Leafs want Matt Read.

No thanks on that one.  If that's the case I walk away.

Overall I am pretty open to trading JVR if the price is right however.  For all his high-end potential, he still isn't a consistent factor in games.  Top line talent doesn't have to score every night, but they have to be at least visible and dangerous.  Will JVR ever be consistent threat?

I really can't personally evaluate Schenn's development to compare, but the optimistic projections say he is a future top pair stay-at-home defensemen.

Neither team will die trying to make this trade .  Burke likes to wheel and deal, and it's been widely reported that the Flyers have lined up Tim Gleason as a back up plan.  This scenario probably has 2 or 3 weeks to play out, and then the teams will move on.

Cooter Goes Streaking

The Carter trade, which looked good on trade day, is looking like an epic win today.  This is mostly due to Sean Couturier.  When getting the #8 pick, you expect to get a good player, but Couturier is exceeding what can be reasonably expected of a #8 pick jumping straight to the NHL.

It was surprising that he fell that far in the draft, as back at the beginning of last season, many scouts projected him to the #1 overall pick.  However, if Flyers fans feel cheated by missing out on Patrick Kane due to bad luck and being stuck with #2 pick in a year when there were few can't miss players available after Kane, they've fallen into good fortune with Cooter.

This is no doubt rigging the stats by running the numbers when Cooter's are inflated by his current goal streak, but the numbers are pretty shocking.

Jeff Carter, 30gp, 10g, 7a, 59:53/goal, 85:33/assist
Sean Couturier, 40gp, 10g, 7a, 49:57/goal, 71:22/assist

Also keep in mind that Carter's ice time generally breaks down as 80% even strength (on a mediocre team with top linemates), 17% power play, 3% shorthanded.  Cooter's is more like 80% even strength (4th line with 2 other rookies), 2% power play, 18% shorthanded.

I don't mean to say Cooter is a better player than Carter right now, but for their production to be even close right now is shocking.  Cooter being more productive with his shorthanded minutes and 4th line teammates than Carter has been with Rick Nash is scandalous.

And why not throw in Voracek's stats too?
44gp, 7g, 20a, 102:51/goal, 36:00/assist

And oh yeah, the Flyers got a 3rd round pick as well for Carter.

Now just sit back and enjoy seeing Cooter playing with more and more assertiveness on offense.  He still doesn't like to carry the puck, but his smarts, passing and shooting are doing just fine right now.

Best trade for the Flyers since Recchi for Desjardins and LeClair?  Still a long ways to go, but the early returns are very good.