Bobrovsky Takes the Vezina

I've already written a bit about Bob's huge season, and the hand-wringing amongst Flyers fans about where the Flyers blew it.  Now his Vezina victory is official, and I'm still serene about the whole thing.

Why am I so serene about it?  Basically because he won it on two months of hot play, and two months don't change everything.  What I wrote previously was a basically a subjective history--here are actual stats of season performances.

At the end of February this season, Bob was 3-6-3, .899%, and 0 SOs.  Nothing any Flyer fan would think twice about.  Over the next two months, Bob caught fire and would go 18-5-3, .946% and 4 SOs.  Thus he won the Vezina in a 4 month season with a cumulative stat line of 21-11-6,  .932%.  History has shown us however, that the first 4 months of the season usually go very well for Bobrovsky, and then the wheels come off.

First, you might notice a general pattern to Bobrovsky's seasons in this chart;

                                    2010 w/Flyers            2011 w/Flyers         2012 w/ Jackets

You can begin to see a pattern there of peaking around month 4 of the season, then sagging thereafter.  Moreover, in all 3 seasons, his month 4 performance is extremely similar.  That chart is still a little convoluted though.  Strip away more of the noise, and just break it up at the 4 month mark of the season.  The dichotomy becomes much more clear;

The second half of the season has been much more challenging for Bobrovsky thus far in his career, and it's probably not a coincidence that his first big season has come in a year where there was no second half.  What he did in the first 4 months of 2012 is better than his first two years with the Flyers, but not drastically so.

Is it possible that he wouldn't have had a bad second half, and he has simply developed his game?  Of course.  Is this a jaded fan rationalization?  Probably.  But I still don't have too many regrets over the situation.

Get Your Story Straight

This week, Bobrovsky was named as a finalist for the Vezina trophy.  Many believe him to be the favorite.  Why can't the Flyers get young goalies like this?

Actually, it's basically time to cue the hand-wringing of Flyers fans and writers.  The predictable reactions are "I knew we shouldn't have traded him!", or "the Flyers are a joke of an organization!"  Hand-wringing aside, what really happened?

The thing about having a blog like this is that there's no hiding your past statements.  Indeed, most of my reason for writing this blog is just to get my own story straight.  Let's recap events:

2010-11 season - The Flyers sign Bobrovsky, and by most accounts he is destined for the AHL.  Instead he impresses in the preseason and Leighton is awful, and he becomes the starter.  He has the job heading down the stretch run, but after a shocking run of results, he gets yanked for good in the playoffs.  At the time, I passionately argued that he was not ready to lead a winning team.  I do not regret a word of that.

2011 offseason - Given the absolute goaltending debacle of the playoffs (using 3 goalies, pulling your starter 5 TIMES in 11 games), the Flyers needed to make a move in net.  I argued then, and still believe now, it would've been insane to give Bobrovsky the keys the team at the time.  My personal plan was to acquire Nabokov on a short term contract, giving the team a proven #1 and allowing Bobrovsky to develop as the backup.  (Or alternatively, sniff around and try to lowball Vokoun, who in fact signed for very little with Washington).  Instead, the Flyers went big and acquired Bryzgalov.  With Bryz in the fold on a 9-year deal, I would've traded Bobrovsky right then because I didn't see a future for him here anymore.

2011-2012 season - Bryzgalov had a rough season, and Bobrovsky had a few stretches as starter.  He didn't run with it, and ended the season with a significantly worse stat line than Bryz.  Either way, Bryz wasn't going anywhere, and I again thought they should trade Bobrovsky since he had no future here.

2012 offseason -  Ultimately, the Flyers traded him for a 2nd and two 4th round picks, which was more than I thought he would fetch as his trade value declined after his mediocre sophomore year.  At the time, I remarked there was no way the Flyers would get a fairly high first round pick for him, as the Avs gave up for Varlamov in the 2011 offseason.  He reminded me of Nittymaki, who was capable of enticing play at times (MVP of 2006 Winter Olympics), but never proved he could be a long term #1 option.

2013 strike season - Well, we know what happened here.

So what's my story?  My story is that no-way no-how was Bob ready to be the #1 after the 2011 playoff debacle.  I thought the Flyers should sign a veteran goalie to be the #1 and give Bob time as backup for another year or two.  Instead, we got Bryzgalov and a 9 year deal.  After that happened, I didn't see a future as a Flyer for him.

In the last few days, Frank Seravalli has tweeted that the Avs wanted Bob MORE than they wanted Varlamov in summer 2011.  I find that a little hard to believe, but if the Avs did offer their 2012 first round pick for Bob, the Flyers were fools not to take it with Bryz already signed long term.

Either way, the Flyers traded him the following offseason for a decent but not overwhelming return.  I did not expect this season from him, and it will be interesting to see how he performs next year in a full length season as the undisputed #1.

I'm sticking to my story that once Bryz was signed, Bob's fate as a Flyers was sealed.  This very well may turn out to be a big mistake long term, but I will call bullshit on people who cry "we should've given him the job in summer 2011 and rode it out!"

Draft Weekend Recap

Indeed, the pieces on the board began to move this weekend for the Flyers.  The rumors were getting crazy on Thursday, and the Flyer were supposedly in on everyone; Nash, Parise, Ryan, Suter, Weber, and trading up in the draft.  Ultimately, the Flyers made far less daring moves.

JVR
The move that was so heavily rumored in March finally came about.  For starters, I am on board with trading JVR.  He seems like a good kid, and he has the talent, I'm just not sure I see him producing consistently.  Often the only difference between a journey-man goal scorer and a top line allstar is consistency, and I think JVR will always be a streaky player.  He's not effective playing on the outside, and he's simply not a banger at heart.  Either way, I've previously written about his development here and here.

As for the particulars on this trade, I wrote about this in March, and not much has changed since...

On paper, the trade makes a lot of sense.  It is a like-for-like trade:
-both players were very high draft picks; JVR #2 in 2007 and Schenn #5 in 2008
-both players have made some noise in the NHL, with Schenn immediately joining the big club as an 18 year old and JVR turning a lot of heads in the playoffs last year
-both players may be seen as underwhelming in their development, with Schenn's ice time down this year and JVR not building off last year's playoffs
-both players are signed to manageable long term contracts

The Flyers need defensemen, the Leafs need size up front.  The trade is merely teams trying to address an organizational need while holding their salary, youth and long term potential constant.

All that said, the devil will be in details.  Flyers fans expect Schenn and other goodies for JVR, and Leafs fan vice-versa.  A rumor I read yesterday is that it will be the Flyers who have to sweeten the pot to complete the deal, and the Leafs want Matt Read.

No thanks on that one.  If that's the case I walk away.

http://mostlyflyers.blogspot.com/2012/01/jvr-for-luke-schenn.html


The Flyers top need was a physical dman, and they now have a promising young one.  A good, simple, hockey trade without a clear "winner" in my opinion.

Bobrovsky
Like JVR, I was ready to see Bob go.  I also wrote about this the other day.  Either way, I think his most likely career path is as a backup or journeyman starter.  He will now get a chance to prove himself in Columbus that he won't get here.

The Flyers should be happy with the trade return for him.  I think his reputation around the league has sunk a little bit over the last several months, and there was no way the Flyers were going to get the kind of return the Caps got for Varlamov last year---ultimately a fairly high first round pick in a deal that shocked a lot around the league.  Still, to salvage a mid-second round pick and two 4th rounders is a good return.  The Flyers definitely benefitted from other teams snatching up backup goalie candidates in the previous week, apparently allowing the Flyers to choose between Winnpeg's offer of the #39 pick, or the #45 pick and two 4th rounders from Columbus.

Incidentally, the Flyers drafted a goalie with the #45 pick.

Draft Picks
I will not pretend to know much about who the Flyers drafted.  Regarding their first round pick, it was mildly disappointing to see them take a center without high-end potential when they have rarely picked in the first round at all the last few years and desperately need defensemen in the system.  On the other hand, this player appears very likely to actually graduate to the NHL, and the Flyers have been amazing at picking winners late in the first round (Gagne, Williams, Giroux).  Scouts say this is a very poor draft class as well.

What Next?
First, this is how I see the Flyers cap situation;

To complete this, I guessed at a value for Voracek, and plugged in a backup goalie that may not be accurate, but the salary should be.  I also plugged in Carle at $4.25, although I find it hard to believe he will sign for so little, but people keep throwing it out there.  The takeaway is that the Flyers could have about $6 million or more to throw at a top-6 forward.

I think their pursuit of Nash is now dead.  JVR and Bob were their two major trading chips to get Nash, and they have been cashed in.  Personally, I think the Columbus GM is overplaying his hand, and as teams like the Flyers move on, the offers for Nash will now begin to get worse.  I wasn't a huge fan of Nash to Philly anyway.

The two major targets the Flyers could go after is Parise or Ryan.  Again, the Flyers don't have many assets left to trade for Ryan, so I'm not seeing it.  Regarding Parise, I think the Flyers have a lot of interest and will make an offer.  I have my doubts about how they'll fare in a bidding war on the open market, however.

The conservative course is to resign Jagr and pick up a role-player for the bottom two lines for about $5 million combined.  This is probably the wisest course in my opinion.  Granted, maybe the Flyers can't resign Carle or Voracek (silence is ominous regarding his extension, I think), and then all this needs to be re-evaluated.

Offseason Preparations

I've had my little break, and the dust has settled after the playoff exit.  Offseason grumblings are beginning to trickle out, so I'd like to make sense of it all.

Starting with the least speculative news, multiple reports last week indicated Jagr's first choice is to indeed resign with the Flyers, despite the indications that he was ready to move on fresh off the playoff loss.  Talks with the Flyers are said to be progressing, with one rumor on twitter saying that an agreement is already reached.

Additionally, claims are that the Flyers will resign Carle too, at slightly below market rate.  The twist to all this that the Flyers don't have the "tagging space" to sign them yet (basically, your payroll next year can't exceed this year's cap).  As a result, the cap will rise to $70.3 million on July 1, and the Flyers will be free to sign these guys then.  By that time however, Carle will officially be a free agent, and I still think someone throws $5+ million at him.  Could that throw a wrench in the Flyers plans?

Either way, let's assume these signings both happen.  Now I have heard NOTHING about Voracek resigning, but let's plug that in too.  You get this picture.

*This is without the "bonus cushion."  This means that for players like Schenn, his cap hit will be the full $3.11m until he misses a bonus benchmark.   This will happen soon, but even so, this is the limit with which the Flyers must comply on opening day.  If there is the "bonus cushion" this season, the Flyers can exceed the cap by such a bonus, but would be penalized if the players ultimately earned the bonus and send the Flyers over the cap.

Now ignore the lines, and I had to guess at contract values for Jagr, Voracek and Carle, but this should be more or less accurate.  The main takeaway is that, making no other changes, merely resigning these guys leaves little cap space for other signings.  This leaves the possibility of a plain vanilla offseason of resignings only, with no other acquisitions of note.

The Flyers rarely stand pat though, often pulling off trades at the draft.  I'm not going to speculate on roster depth maneuvers, but there could be a few big pieces in play.

JVR-Nash Rumors
For one, Howard Eskin dropped this nugget yesterday; JVR is delaying having surgery, which could hold up a trade for Nash because the Flyers can't trade him if he isn't healthy.  Now Eskin knows nothing about hockey in terms of analysis, but his information is good.  He usually only says something about the Flyers when he gets good info.

JVR was on the Flyers post-season surgery list, and unusually (but not shockingly), he has not had the surgery yet.  The Flyers have already denied the insinuation that there is any intent on the part of JVR to delay his surgery, and that does seem like a bombastic accusation. 

Putting aside the question of intent by JVR, but taking the underlying issue of his health holding up a trade as true, this transaction would return to a few themes.  Go back to the trade deadline, and the Flyers were players for Nash.  It was left at, and I quote Darren Dreger, "Price too high for Flyers(at moment) for Nash. May re-engage later. JVR,Bobrovski, Schenn or Couturier believed to be part of asking price."  Also, this would be the second time a JVR injury is seen as holding up a deal, as he was out with a concussion in February when the Luke Schenn trade rumors were everywhere.

I've already evaluated a JVR-Nash trade, but my stance remains the same---JVR will never be the player Nash is, but Nash's best days are behind him.  JVR and Bob I'd be happy to trade, but I would not include Schenn or Cooter in the trade for a diminishing star with a big cap hit like Nash.  We'll see if there's anything to this.

Nashville Defensemen
Putting aside Nash, the Flyers real need is top-end defensemen.  The two names being thrown around are Suter and Tobias Enstrom.  Enstrom is basically a younger Timonen, but he has one year left on his contract (at a low cap it), and would require a trade to acquire.  Suter will be a free agent on July 1, and Nashville is trying hard to resign him.

I've seen reports that the Suter doesn't want to sign with the Flyers, but even assuming those are incorrect, I doubt we'll see this signing.  For one, Nashville has the cap space and will pull out all the stops to keep him.  Second, everyone knows Detroit wants him, and Detroit has just seen Lidstrom retire and is letting Stuart go.  I think Suter stays in Nashville or goes to Detroit.

This situation creates a second domino--Shea Weber.  He is my grand hope for the Flyers this offseason.  A full-on replacement for Chris Pronger.  Weber is a restricted free agent, so practically this means a trade.  JVR again?  (A JVR+Mesz+picks seems to be a popular rumor.  I'd take that trade FWIW.)  The wrinkle here is that Weber and Suter are the spine of Nashville's team, and despite their limited budget, I can't see any way they let both Weber and Suter go.  Despite my fantasies, I think the most likely scenario is Suter to Detroit, Weber staying in Nashville.

Bobrovsky
Getting back to Bobrovsky, the Flyers could try to save some cap space but getting a cheaper backup.  Bob's future prospects in Philadelphia are waning, though I was an advocate of trading him last offseason.  I don't think Bob has nearly as much trading value as Flyers fans like to believe, but the time might be right to trade him anyway and bring in an experienced number 2.

Season Review

All playoff exits feel disappointing.  Through the ups and downs, fans always convince themselves that their team can win any series.  The Flyers flame-out was sudden, but in the long view, it makes a little more sense.

At no point this season did I think the Flyers were really primed for a serious cup run.  They were too young up front, having traded away their core forwards.  Then things started going pretty well, but Pronger went down.  Without Pronger, I thought a long playoff run was precluded.

The Flyers defensive and goaltending struggles reinforced that perception, until March shutouts made me begin to think I could be wrong.  The defense showed hope, and they could score whenever they needed to.  Eventually however, the gas tank ran dry and ingrained problems caught up to them.

It was a memorable and exciting season, and I could not label this team as underachievers.  That's pretty much all you can ask for as a fan.

PLAYER REVIEWS

Forwards:
-Giroux.  The burden fell to him to step up with Carter and Richards gone, and he responded with an MVP caliber season that Richards or Carter never produced.

-Briere.  A very poor regular season, largely saved by 8 playoff goals.  His overall game never really fired on all cylinders though, even in the playoffs.

-Voracek.  His 49 points is not all that impressive, but he was a valuable player for the Flyers, and I certainly didn't see anything like conditioning or effort issues that his old CBJ coach criticized him for on the way out.  He may never break 25 goals or 65 points, but I could see him being a winger on a quality top line.

-Hartnell.  A quiet playoffs shouldn't dilute a career year, and I think he was playing hurt anyway.  Consistently energetic, physical, and showed a finishing touch I didn't think he had.  All this after a pre-season lost to health concerns and a terrible start.

-Jagr.  54 points in 73 games, veteran leadership, and the self-proclaimed "most enjoyable year" of his career.  That qualifies as a success.  Jagr did have some nagging groin issues, and his energy level fluctuated throughout the year, so it remains to be seen if he will be back.

-Schenn.  18 points in 54 games is an unimpressive line, but he improved as the season wore on, and I'd go so far as to say he was the Flyers' best player in game 1 of the Pittsburgh series.  I expect  him to take the next step in his career next year.

-Read.  He turned out to be one of the best rookies in the league.  24 goals, played everywhere on the front line, and in all situations.  Pretty much ideal.

-Simmonds.  Almost doubled his career high in goals, largely due to 11 PP goals.  He looks to be a streaky scorer going forward, as he battles and puts himself in good positions but doesn't have very soft hands, his physical initiative will make him a fan favorite.

-Talbot.  Gave the Flyers everything they could hope for.  A lunchpail player and team guy, he went from 8 goals last season with Pittsburgh to 19 this year, and he and Giroux were lethal shorthanded in the playoffs.

-Couturier.  Surpassed all expectations this season, with 13 goals and logged big minutes in the playoffs.  Remarkable for an 18 year old, I could not identify any clear deficiencies in his game.  What a draft day steal, he could be a key player for the Flyers for a long time.

-Wellwood.  Nothing spectacular, but a young, speedy player that should be an asset for bottom lines and depth next year.

-Rinaldo.  Did all that could be asked of him.  Not a high skill guy, he successfully brought a lot of energy and spark to the Flyers.  He will have to continue to work on his discipline, though in his defense, he is clearly targeted by the officials and is on the short end of a lot of marginal calls.

-JVR.  I think JVR had a very disappointing season.  Yes, he had injuries, and his point production was decent before all the injuries.  Still, I wrote that his early stat line flattered his play even before all the injuries, and there's no escaping the reality of the 11g, 13a, 43gp for a player who was supposed to score 30+ goals this year.  He was very good in game 1 against NJ, but did little else in that series.

-Shelley.  Yes, he is still on this team.

Defense:
-Timonen.  Another year of wear and tear on Timonen's body, he still was able to be the Flyers top defensemen this year.  Injuries severely limited him in the playoffs.

-Meszaros.  Was inconsistent all year, never finding the form he had most of last season.  Then his season was cut short by an injury.  Maybe next year will be a bounce back season.

-Coburn.  Unremarkable regular season, but logged huge minutes in the playoffs.

-Grossmann.  The strong, defense-first, shot-blocking defenseman the team needed.  He has bad knees though, so let's hope they hold up.

-Carle.  The team's de facto number 1 defensemen this year, covering a lot of territory and eating minutes.  A very good chance that his time as a Flyers is over, however.

-Kubina.  He could not provide the reliable veteran presence the team was looking for---too old and slow, and picked up some injuries too.  Little chance of him returning.

-Pronger.  His season never really started, and his career may be over.  It's a shame his time with the Flyers was so short-lived.

-Gustafsson.  He really made some nice strides this season, though he could struggle at times.  Skilled and smart, but undersized.  It will be interesting to see what he can do next year in extended time.

-Bourdon.  Another pleasant surprise, as his career seemed to have stalled in the minors.  Looks like he might have an NHL future yet.

-Lilja.  Seldom used in the regular season, played decently in the playoffs.  Too old and slow to play a significant role.

Goalies:
-Bryzgalov.  Things did not go as planned, though he was amazing in March.  Too inconsistent and gaffe prone, but on and off the ice.  Seemingly has some growing up to do, though a full season in Philly under his belt will help.  Expectations will remain high with his 9 year contract.  I am optimistic.

-Bobrovsky.   Started the season strong, but on the whole did not take the next step in his career this year.  Now heading into the last year of his contract with the Flyers.

Finally, an Opponent

After dispatching the Flyer's archrival of the moment, the Flyers will now face their chief rival from about 1995-2005, the New Jersey Devils.

This year's Devils aren't the most formidable team, but they are capable of playing some good hockey.  Brodeur is also a legend, but at 39 he is much more vulnerable than he used to be.

The Flyers are capable of winning this series convincingly, but a victory lap would be premature.  The Flyers's bad starts and lack of 60 minute efforts could make this a long series if the Devils stay the course.

The Flyers largely need to forget the last series.  It was a wide-open series of passion.  This series will not be.  The Devils this year allowed the second fewest shots against in the NHL, and were 4th from the bottom in generating their own shots, so prepare for much tighter hockey.  Fortunately for the Flyers, the Devils weren't suffocating when protecting leads either.


Notes:
-The Flyers will not be repeating their 50+% power play percentage.  Better, more reliable 5-on-5 play will be required.  Despite a poor first round performance, the Devils PK was #1 in the league this year in the regular season (the Penguins were #3, FWIW).

-Health will be a major issue.  Grossmann appears ready to go, but Briere, Jagr and Timonen are all in various states of disrepair.  Bryzgalov appears to be healthy, but you also can't forget his injury status.  Lastly, Meszaros is increasing participation in practices, but all estimates peg him joining the series very late, if at all.

-The Flyers played the Devils 6 times this season
  -10/8 - Bryzgalov gets a 20 save shutout in the 2nd game of the season.  3-0 Flyers.
  -11/3 - The Flyers blow a 2-0 lead, losing 4-3 in a shootout.  The Devils outshoot the Flyers 39-23
  -1/21 - The Flyers again take a 2-0 lead, and a couple of PP goals by Hartnell ends in a 4-1 Flyers victory
  -2/4 - The Devils get 3 PP goals and 1 SHG, and chase Bobrovsky from the game leading 6-0.  The Flyers score 4 goals in the third period to make it respectable.  6-4 Devils.
  -3/11 - A 1-1 game early in the 3rd period, the Devils score 3 unanswered goals, outshooting the Flyers 31-19 overall.  4-1 Devils.
  -3/13 - In the back-end of the home-and-home series, the Flyers shut down NJ and Bryzgalov gets a 17 save shutout, 3-0 Flyers.

-FWIW, Bryzgalov's numbers against NJ this year were 3-0, 0.29 GAA, .987 save percentage, 2 shutouts.  All losses fell on Bobrovsky, though Bobrovsky admittedly saw a lot more shots than Bryzgalov in those games.

-I will be interested to see how JVR performs this series, as hopefully his health will have improved significantly in the last week.

Back to Work

After the all-star game weekend, or as I treat it, a weekend without hockey, it's time for the Flyers to get back to work.  No real stories sizzling right now, but a few odds and ends floating around.

-The list of potential defensemen trade acquisitions seems to be shrinking, as Tim Gleason has re-signed with Carolina and will be off the market.  In addition, there are indications that Nashville will trade neither Weber nor Suter.  That puts more pressure on a potential Schenn trade for the Flyers?  That, or they start looking elsewhere.

-Speaking of the Schenn trade, that can't happen until JVR returns from a concussion.  JVR, Briere and Jagr are all close to returning from their injuries, but the exact date of return is unclear.  I wouldn't rush it.

-And of course, the goalie issue.  Apparently Bryz will start tonight after having had some time to clear his head.  Laviolette keeps trotting him out, though Bryz isn't getting any better (maybe even worse).  If the playoffs started today, I would play Bob, but there's still 2+ months for things to sort themselves out.  Laviolette will give him every chance to get right, but if he doesn't improve, it would be foolish to make him the playoff starter and expect his play to magically change when the playoffs begin.

-The Carter trade debacle has hit a new low for Columbus.  Apparently the team is actively looking to trade him, but they want a package similar to what they gave the Flyers this offseason.  That's not going to happen.  Either way, the team sucks and there won't be a happy resolution for any party soon.

Sitting Ducks in Shootout

Thankfully, the Flyers have spared their fans the pain of seeing their team feebly lose shootouts much this season.  They've only had 3 this year, and predictably lost all three.  How bad are the Flyers in shootouts?  The numbers are below.  Keep in mind that, leaguewide, goalies make the save 67.4% of the time.

-This year, Bryzgalov is 0/5 in shootouts (dead last in NHL by percentage).  Bobrovsky is 1/3 (51st out of 54 in the NHL, by percentage).

-All time, the Flyers are dead last in shootout wins, with 19 (in 56 games).

-All time, Flyers shooters score 28.7% of the time (25th).  Flyers goalies make the save 56.9% of the time (dead last).

Looking at Bryzgalov's futility this season, it made me wonder if wearing a Flyers uniform somehow makes goalies do terribly.

-Bryzgalov; as a Flyer 0% (0/5), as a non-Flyer 66.0% (103/156)

-Bobrovsky; only as a Flyer 45.0% (9/20) -- this is the worst of any individual goalie in the NHL with a minimum of 10 attempts

-Boucher; as a Flyer 55.5% (15/27), as a non-Flyer 53.8%(7/13)

-Biron; as a Flyer 51.4% (19/37), as a non-Flyer 60% (18/30)  -- at 55.2% all time, Biron is second worst of any individual goalie in the NHL with a minimum of 50 attempts

-Emery; as a Flyer 77.8% (7/9), as a non-Flyer 55.8% (24/43)

-Nittymaki; as a Flyer 67.6% (46/68), 81.5% as a non-Flyer (22/27)

Those individual numbers show that, for the most part, the Flyers simply employ goalies who are awful at shootouts.  Bryzgalov's awful numbers this year are just another indication of how terrible a year he is having.  Say what you will about being victimized by deflections this year, or adjusting to a new defensive system--the shootout eliminates all of those variables.  He is simply playing very poorly right now.

And I'll say it again---it is simply a miracle the Flyers won a playoff spot 2 years ago by winning a shootout against the Rangers on the last day of the season.  For point of comparison, Henrik Lundqvist, is the all time leader in shootout wins with 39, and has a 76.4% save percentage.

Midseason Player Reviews

I don't like rating players by grades, and there's no use denying every player faces different expectations and different roles.  I'm going to simply assume some degree of subjective expectations and rate players with a stock-rating flavor.

Outperform
-Claude Giroux.  No brainer here.  Last season he looked like a promising young center, but was arguably the 4th most visible center on the team.  With Richards and Carter traded to make room for a goalie, Giroux faced a lot of pressure to be the offensive lynchpin.  He has responded with an MVP caliber season.

-Jaromir Jagr.  Sticking with Giroux's line, no one was sure how Jagr would perform after three season out of the NHL.  50 points?  60 points?  He still couldn't do a point a game, could he?  Apparently yes.  After a slow start, he found his legs and has looked fantastic, and is a key offensive player for the Flyers.  Nagging injuries are the only thing slowing him down now.

-Scott Hartnell.  And now to complete the Giroux line!  Hartnell got off to a very rocky start, missing preseason time due to medical tests, and his place in the lineup was very much at risk with 2 points in 7 games and Simmonds on the top PP unit.  Placing him with Jagr and Giroux has been magic, as every player has looked better since this trio was complete.  Hartnell has 35 points in 34 games since then.

-Matt Read.  On pace for 25+ goals, and an offensive factor every night.  What more could the Flyers want from him?

-Jake Voracek.  His pace of ~50 points isn't going to turn many heads, and is line with his career averages, however I think he is playing better than that.  Didn't start off great, but he is up on his skates attacking the defense every night.  It's not a coincidence that the Flyers go on win streaks when he is playing his best.  Early in the season I talked about Jagr replacing Leino's offensive contribution, but it's actually been Voracek carrying the puck, making plays, contributing what the Flyers would've hoped for from Leino.

-Kimmo Timonen.  He has played big minutes and piled up the points, and looks to produce at a rate not seen since his best years in Nashville.

-Max Talbot.  Has played reliably all over the lineup, and at midseason is already near career highs in goal scoring and points.

-Sean Couturier.  I didn't listen to scouts early this year when they nearly unanimously predicted Cooter would make the big team.  I looked at the roster and though, nah.  Instead, Cooter has simply made it impossible to take him out of the lineup, playing like a veteran.

-Harry Zolneirczyk.  Despite being sent down early in the season, he has come back and looked great on the 4th line--energetic with occasional scoring.  Thumbs up, though to maintain a role like this in the NHL he will have to have an increased role on the PK.

-Zac Rinaldo.  I was pretty skeptical of this wild man coming into the season.  Although he seems targeted by officials, he has general kept it under control, potted a goal here or there, and aggressively sought contact on the ice. 

-Marc-Andre Bourdon.  His ascent to the NHL hasn't really gone like many in the organization may have hoped, but he has played within himself and looked like he belongs in the NHL.

Market Perform
-Danny Briere.  A pretty ho-hum regular season for Briere.  He's been there for some key goals, but hasn't looked consistently dangerous and is on pace for his lowest point totals for a full season as a Flyer (when healthy).  I am giving him somewhat of a pass due to raising his game in the playoffs the last two years, and the expectation that he will do it again.

-Matt Carle.  Carle continues to hum along, playing big minutes and getting decent point totals.  I still say he has the worst shot on the team though, so there's always that to infuriate Flyers fans when he gets so many chances with skating and awareness on the ice. 

-Wayne Simmonds.  Simmonds teased Flyers fans early this year and preseason with some offensive skill, however Flyer fans have seen some stone hands since then.  Simmonds is always battling out there, but his offense probably will never be more than occasional and streaky.

-Braydon Coburn.  Quiet but largely steady from Braydon.

-Sergei Bobrovsky.  Bob continues to progress nicely, and currently sports a much better stat line than Bryzgalov.  He probably deserves a chance to get some starts and be given a chance to run with it.

-Andreas Lilja.  Doing exactly what was expected; old and slow, occasionally physical defensemen.

Underperform
-Brayden Schenn.  I don't like putting him here, as when I see him play I see a skilled and intelligent player, and injuries never really gave him a chance.  Still, on January 1, there he was with 0 points and -7 in 8 games.  Hopefully, the second half will treat him better (and the signs are already good).

-James Van Riemsdyk.  Looking at a low 40s point season, and is not visible many nights.  This is even when I commented earlier this season that his points line flatters his play.  He was supposed to progress more than this by this point.

-Andrej Meszaros. The team's best defensemen last year, he struggled early.  His play has improved, but his overall body of work is not what Flyers fans were hoping for.

-Ilya Bryzgalov.  If you've read this blog, or even followed the Flyers at all, do I need to say anything?  Not playing like the top goalie the Flyers signed him to be.  He still can figure it out though.

-Jody Shelley.  Yes, he is still on this team.

No Rating
Chris Pronger, Erik Gustafsson

Bryzgalov Cracking

I have no issue with Bryzgalov having some bad games.  It happens to everyone, especially when adjusting to a new team, city, and system.  For the same reasons, I don't blame a guy for perhaps taking a few wrong steps with the media.  I also can't blame a guy for a weird personality.

Yesterday, however, with Bryzgalov announcing that he is not starting and is happy to be sipping tea on the bench, crosses the line.  It is childish and disrespectful.

Bryzgalov's mega-signing this offseason isn't working out too well at this point.  His stats are not good, and he is dealing with the media pressure of Philadelphia poorly.  In evaluating the situation as a whole, a few things have to be separated out.

Statement 1: It's a bad and significant sign that Bobrovsky was chosen to start the Winter Classic.
WRONG.  The media was implying that the starting goalie for the winter classic was some momentous decision, as if it were the super bowl and you need your starting QB, or a big baseball playoff match and you need your ace on the hill.  For all the media hype, the game was still just a midseason regular season match, and there was no indication Laviolette and Tortorella were treating it as any more than that.  Last post, I said Bob needed a run out of starts.  This is precisely that.

Statement 2:  The Flyers should've named Bob the number one goalie in the offseason and signed a cheap backup.
WRONG.  This is a ridiculous claim in my opinion.  The Flyers needed to do something in the offseason to try and make a more permanent solution in goal.  How can people forget last year's playoffs so quickly, in which it was an utter embarrassment with the Flyers going through 3 goalies in one round, and had to repeatedly pull their starting goalie in the first period.
By any objective measure, the Flyers would've been crazy to anoint Bob their undisputed number this season.  This is not a knock on Bob, who has a promising, if uncertain, NHL future.  The fact is this; he was slated to spend last season in the AHL, but was given a chance due to injuries early in the season and seized the moment.  He played his best hockey in November, but faded.  Laviolette gave him the keys to the team, and nearly every start down the stretch, however Bob finished the season winless in 7 starts, getting pulled in the first period of two must win games.  Bob entered this offseason, as a 23 year old goalie with obvious flaws still in his game (going down too early), with ONE season of experience on a north american rink, who faded in crunch time, and was winless in 6 playoff appearances.  This is the guy to be named the #1 for a team expecting to make a playoff run?  That's ridiculous.


Statement 3: The Bryzgalov contract was a huge mistake.
????  This one is too early to tell.  While the Flyers had to do something in net, they had options other than signing the most expensive goalie out there to a 9 year deal.  Also, the fact that they chose to sign a player to 9-year contract appears to indicate the organization judged and concluded that Bobrovsky was not the long term solution. So far, it has not worked out as the Flyers hoped.  It's way too early to give up on Bryzgalov, and the Flyers have already hitched their wagon to him without any clear way out from the arrangement they've created.  There is years worth of evidence that Bryzgalov is a capable goalie, but his current schtick is getting tired and the team is still looking for an arrangement that works for all parties.

Lost in Space

Earlier this year, Bryz commented that he was "lost in the woods."  In light of his recent musings on 24/7, clearly he is more like a lost space cadet.

Another frustrating loss with some questionable goals, and Flyers fans are freaking out.  Clearly the franchise is ruined by Bryzgalov's eternal contract.

Kidding aside, there is no getting around the fact that Bryzgalov is not playing well.  He put together a long win streak, but has looked very shoddy in the last few losses.  He continues to be plagued by deflections, but at some point he (and the team) has to adjust and not just lament bad luck.

The numbers don't lie.  With 14 wins, Bryzgalov is 15th in the NHL, but of those goalies, only Craig Anderson on a terrible Ottawa team is even close to his GAA (3.01) and save percentage (.890).  The Flyers signed Bryzgalov to be a Vezina candidate, and at worst, a top 10 goalie in the league.  He's nowhere close right now.  I previously noted how Bryzgalov was a 3 star selection in 44% of his starts last year in Phoenix.  This year?  16% (4/25).  He can play much better, and he knows it.

He still needs to figure out how to excel on this team.  Maybe you can understand why the Flyers tried to muzzle him early this year, as it looks like he might need to refocus.  He's obviously a strange cat, but regardless of anyone's personality, you can succeed.  He has to start showing some serious competitiveness to get through this though.

It's too early to jump off the bridge on Bryzgalov, his contract, and incite a good old Flyers goalie controversy, but I do think it's time to give Bob a run of starts.

A Breath of Fresh Air

The new season is days away, and the feeling around the team is palpably different.  The team hierarchy is  clear cut.  After a few seasons of Mike Richards being the face of the team (aka Captain Mumbles), the leadership burden falls on players who are very comfortable in their own skin; Pronger, Bryzgalov, Timonen and Jagr.  All of these players deal with the media and pressure effortlessly, and Pronger and Bryzgalov will be competing for the better quotes all season long.

I think it's hard for Flyers fans not to be excited with how this preseason went.  First of all, Jagr and Bobrovsky turned a lot of heads.  Apparently Jagr is training fanatically, returning to the rink for late nights skates in a weighted jacket, and his preseason performance is raising expectations.  I said previously that I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him hit 60 points, but many are now speculating him to hum along at a point/game pace alongside Giroux.

Also, Wayne Simmonds scoring 4 goals in the preseason has been a nice surprise.  I think he has been an under-appreciated acquisition this summer, and that he has the potential to be a fan favorite with his physical initiative.  Still, he only scored 30 points last year, so it was unclear how many points the Flyers could expect from him this year, but early indications point him to getting PP time.

The flip side of the coin is that Schenn and Voracek have had anonymous preseasons.  For Schenn, that could mean a start in the AHL.  While disappointing, this is not the end of the world.  Giroux and Spezza, for example, did the same, and things worked out pretty well for them.  Starting Schenn in the AHL would save the Flyers a lot of cap space too.  Voracek's ice time is assured, but he will drift into Laviolette's doghouse if he doesn't get going.  Fingers crossed there.

Overall it's an exciting time for Flyers fans.  I think this year's team ceiling is a little lower than last year's squad, which was kicking butt in January, however the chances of a crisis of confidence that afflicted last year's team are also lower.  Better goaltending, steadier leadership....etc.  I think the biggest problem facing the Flyers is that most of their players are still pretty young (JVR, Giroux, Simmonds, Voracek) or at the end of their careers and are at a great injury risk (Pronger, Timonen, Jagr).  A few key injuries could be devastating.

The final roster will be announced tomorrow, so I'm just going to wait and see on that one rather than prognosticate.  Maybe I'm getting lazy....

Simmonds and Things

It's been a very tough week for Wayne Simmonds.  First the now infamous banana incident, and then he finds himself on the other end of a bad situation with Avery/homophobe incident.  You couldn't blame Simmonds for simply wanting to move on from the banana incident, though it's a little harder to ask everyone to simply forget a similar incident in which you are the perpetrator.

There is no excusing Simmonds alleged (likely) use of homophobic slurs.  It's not right and no provocation justifies it.  The whole thing is just unfortunate for a lot of reasons.

Truthfully the situation fits Avery's modus operandi perfectly.  Agitate, physically and verbally, then when a response finally comes, cry to the referees instead of finishing what you started.  This pattern was on full display in the game a few days, as microphones clearly caught Avery repeatedly yelling "he was going ****ing kill Giroux," and cheapshotting Simmonds with a punch in the face at the bottom of the pile when Simmonds is defenseless.  Later Simmonds challenges Avery to a toe-to-toe fight, and Avery turtles drawing a penalty.  As I said, his typical bag of tricks.

Where things change here is that, where Avery usually agitates then cries to the referees for a penalty, here he agitates then rats out a player to the media.  This is against all acknowledged NHL players codes, that what happens on the ice stays on the ice.

Avery is no angel.  He has previously been accused of using racial slurs against black players, was suspended by the league for commenting to the media that other players were having his sloppy seconds by dating his ex-girlfriend, and has at various other times been accused of crossing the line with his trash talk, delving into player's personal lives and wives.  Additionally, it has been reported that unnamed officials say they hear language like Simmonds is accused of 10 times a game.  Clearly, all of this generally vile behavior underlines that trash talk that is not fit for public consumption is an everyday part of life in the NHL.

Again, this doesn't excuse Simmonds behavior, but the prevailing culture cannot be ignored.  It is not practical or even fair to come crashing down on Simmonds at this time.  This is an uncomfortable subject that will come up again around the league, but for now the NHL is content to let it blow over and merely put everyone on notice.

General Preseason Notes
-The consensus is that Matt Read has won himself a spot of the roster, quite likely in the top 9 forwards.  He's shown a ton of jump, and is playing smart in all situations.  This would be great news for the Flyers if he can stick as a reliable, productive player.

-Schenn has underwhelmed a bit this preseason, and is now hurt.  The widespread expectation was that he would make the team, but the way things are going I wouldn't be shocked if he starts the season down in the AHL.  He is exempt from waivers so the Flyers can send him up and down as they please.  Also, the Flyers cap situation is very tight, and his $3m+ contract is not a trivial number.

-Couturier has shown very well, but it was always going to be an uphill climb for him to make the squad at 18.  I'd be very surprised if he sticks past the 10 game mark, when players his age must be sent back to juniors or else the Flyers will lose a year to his free agency status.

-The 7th defensemen spot battle still seems pretty wide open.  Matt Walker has the most NHL bona fides, but also a much bigger contract than Gustafsson and Bartulis, so he will have to be that much better than them to make the team.

-Good stuff from Bobrovsky thus far.  I previously said the Flyers would've been crazy to give the keys to the team this season, which I still definitely believe, but a year as a backup could be great for him.  Especially if he plays like this for an extended period.

The Most Interesting Offseason in the World

The free agent frenzy is quieting down now, and you can take stock of most things.

The big point overall is that UFAs this year made a killing.  Players were getting 30% more than a comparable player would've gotten 2 years ago.  I think it's mostly due the to fact that it was a generally weak free agent group coming in a year where the salary cap increased more than expected.  And then you have a team like Florida spending money like a drunken sailor in a whorehouse on decent but unspectacular players simply to get to the cap floor that compounded the perverted market.

For the Flyers, the Extreme Makeover continues.  Out with the Canadian golden boys, in with puck possession eastern europeans, a Russian goalie, and a black guy.  Despite a bunch of rumors of something bigger like Brad Richards, Stamkos, or a big trade, the Flyers mostly stuck to the expected game plan. Mostly.

The most "predictable" move was adding a 3rd/4th line character guy.  The Flyers needed some experience in that area, and the team has commented that they need a "new Laperriere" to provide leadership and character in that role.  Max Talbot seems to fit that bill, the only surprise being that he comes from the Penguins.

Speaking of the Penguins, there was that signing of Jagr the other day.  Now nearly everyone expected the Flyers to be looking at wingers, maybe Erik Cole or Michael Ryder, but no one was taking about Jagr to the Flyers until the day before free agency.  Apparently the Flyers pursuit of him didn't even start until then until Holmgren speculatively sent a text to former flyer Petr Svoboda, who is the agent for Jagr and Voracek.

Jagr will be a very interesting case.  He'll turn 40 in midseason and will not be the dominant player of old, but he's remained productive in Russia and is coming off a very strong World Championships performance.  It's easy to question whether an aging temperamental Euro star is a right fit on the Flyers, but Jagr seems more dedicated to training and staying in shape than ever before.  Also he apparently did his homework and chose the Flyers (which were not the richest offer) after talking to the coaches and players.  There's lots of reasons to be hopeful that Jagr will have a productive season, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him hit 60 points this season.

Lastly, there is the signing of Andreas Lilja.  A cheap, depth defensemen for the 6/7 role.


Other Signings:
-Handzus to SJ for $2.5x2 years.  Early in the day it was reported that the Flyers had signed Handzus, to which I was receptive.  He would be a big centermen to play on the third line and would be a decent fit at the right price.  Seems to me SJ got a good deal here for an aging though still valuable centermen.

-Upshall to Florida for $3.5x4.  Wow, the first of many big overpayments on the day.  This signing was the perfect marriage of a player who's not quite as good as he thinks he is (career highs; 22 goals and 34 points) with a team looking to overpay to get to the cap floor.

-Leino to Buffalo for $4.5x6.  This is an outright shocker.  I don't blame the Flyers for holding steady at a $3m deal, though I suspected someone else would come along and offer more.  Just not that much more.  Calendar year 2010 Leino, who scored 21 points in 19 playoff games and had a very strong first half of the ensuing regular season, was a player worthy of a deal approaching $4m a season.  Calendar year 2011 Leino, not so much.  While Leino is younger and better defensively than Jagr (though he's still not great defensively himself), what are the odds the Flyers get more points and goals from Jagr at $3.3m this year than Buffalo gets from Leino at $4.5?

-Cole to Montreal for $4.5x4.  This is the guy who I wanted on the Flyers, and while that's not an outrageous price, it was still too high for the Flyers to entertain.

-Connolly to Leafs for $4.75x2.  Connolly is a talented player who plays at near a point/game pace when healthy, but when is he ever healthy?  He's only played 70 games once since the lockout, and here are his point totals the last 5 seasons; 1, 40, 47, 65, 42.  This is a $5 million player now?  At least it's only a 2 year deal.

-Vokoun to the Caps for $1.5x1.  An outright steal for the Caps, as he fell into their laps when he didn't find a big money deal on July 1 and looked for a contender to join.  Of course the Flyers could not have entered free agency and expected to get Vokoun for anywhere near this amount, but it still hurts to watch a competitor get such a quality goalie for so little salary, even if it was just luck.


Up Next for the Flyers:
-The Flyers don't have much cap space left.  They likely have $3m or so in cap space left after signing Simmonds and making expected cuts, but they still need to carry a 19th or 20th skater and leave a little cap buffer.

-There are rumors the Flyers are sniffing around Jason Arnott.  He would be of similar interest to the Flyers for the same reason as Handzus; a big third line center at this point of his career.  He might want too much money though.

-The Stamkos rumors never go away with the Flyers.  The latest is Schenn, Bobrovsky and 1st rounder for Stamkos.  If there was no salary cap and this was purely about hockey, I definitely do this deal.  Given the cap restraints however, the Flyers will likely have to dump more salary to fit Stamkos in (Hartnell or Carle maybe), and would not be in great shape next offseason allocating raises to JVR and Coburn, so it's ultimately a tough call.  This is assuming of course the rumors are accurate and Stamkos doesn't simply resign with the Lightning.

Signing Bryzgalov

There is no progress to report on the Flyers signing Bryzgalov, and it will be no trivial task.  That said, giving the way the season ended and the trade for Bryzgalov's rights, I have to think the Flyers are going to do what it takes to get this done.  Substantive talks should take place this week, so we'll have to check on things on Friday.

So what will he sign for?  The more I think about it, I could see the Flyers going longer term to get the cap hit down.  I previously said I though he would sign for $6-6.5m.  Now I think that for every year the Flyers add beyond 4 years to the deal, the yearly cap hit will come down a little.  Maybe 6-7 years for between $5-5.7m is coming.

Assuming a deal gets done, the fun question is what will the Flyers do to create cap space?  I'm going to assume the Flyers sign Bryz for $5.7, give minimal raises to Powe and Nodl, and let Leino walk away.  That puts the Flyers payroll at $63 million with 11 forwards and 5 defensemen.  Obviously things have to go, and these are the options;
  -First thing, Carter could go.  I've previously addressed this, and I'd be very open to it because I think that represents the Flyers trading from a position of strength to get a large return and clear $5.27m.
  -Second, you've got to think very hard about trading Bobrovsky.  It doesn't make sense for the Flyers to carry the second-most expensive backup in the league, at a cap hit at $1.75m.  Also, by merit of playing 60 games this season, Bobrovsky must clear waivers before he can be sent down to the AHL, so that's no longer an option.  I have no problem with Bobrovsky learning the NHL game as a backup for a season or two, but that doesn't work if Bryzgalov is signed to 5+ years.
  -Third, Versteeg has not been worth his ~$3m cap hit.  The only drawback to trading Versteeg is that he doesn't command much trade value, and the Flyers just gave up a 1st and 3rd round pick to get him.  Oh well, that's not a reason to keep him though.
  -Fourth, some sources say the Flyers would rather trade Richards than Carter.  He would give about the same cap relief as trading Carter, though personally, I would rather trade Carter for many reasons.
  -Fifth, I am open to trading Carle, and I have previously evaluated his strengths and weaknesses.  For all his shortcomings however, he eats up a lot of 5-on-5 minutes, and the health of Pronger and Timonen is less than robust.  That should give the Flyers some pause before trading away a proven NHL defensemen.

So what should the Flyers be looking for in return?  Generally they should want high draft picks, a top defensive prospect, and/or a rugged winger.

It would be impossible to predict a particular deal, however some possibilities are emerging.
  -One possible trade partner is Florida.  Tallon is the new GM there, and he previously had Versteeg in Chicago, and may be interested in acquiring him.  They are also well under the cap-floor, so they have to add salary, and have no starting goalie under contract for next year.  Lastly, they have many pieces the Flyers may be interested in; Markstrom is a top goalie prospect, Gudbranson is a top defensive prospect who should be NHL-ready sooner rather than later, and they also have #3 pick.
  -There have already been rumors of the Blue Jackets trading the #8 pick and other pieces (Voracek?) for Carter.  I think the spine of that deal isn't too bad, with the Flyers getting a very high pick and a young physical winger.
  -Edmonton has the #1 pick, and is looking for a high-end center.
  -Colorado picks at #2 and #11, and their situation in net is unsettled.

The easiest way for the Flyers to open up some cap room is to trade Versteeg for little value, or see who may want Bobrovsky.  What actually shakes out though, is anyone's guess.

Flyers trade for Bryzgalov's rights

The Flyers have acquired Ilya Bryzgalov (due to become a free agent on July 1) for Matt Clackson, a 3rd round pick next year, and a conditional pick.

No one will notice Clackson being gone, but the Flyers give up another (possibly 2) decent picks.

As for Bryzgalov, as I already stated, I think he is the best goalie out there, having high-end ability and entering the prime of his career.  I wasn't sure if he made sense for the Flyers because he is going to want a long-term, high salary deal.  Some inside sources regarding Bryzgalov's negotiations with Phoenix before they traded him;

Real_ESPNLeBrun Pierre LeBrun 

Am told by source that Bryzgalov contract demands with Coyotes were off the charts

DarrenDreger Darren Dreger 

Bryzgalov wants to be paid as a top player...not just a top goalie. Demands too rich for Yotes.

One can only hope he didn't really want to sign with Phoenix, and his demands with the Flyers will be reasonable.  I will be stunned if he signs here for less than 4 years at $5m/year.  I would actually predict he will sign at 4 or 5 years, approximately $6/year (if not a little more).

This raises a few questions;
1) Who else are the Flyers going to trade now?  Even if you assume the Flyers will not carry Zherdev, Carcillo, Nodl, Powe, Laperriere, Walker, O'Donnell and Leighton on the books, the Flyers already still have over $56m committed to players next season.  Simply signing Bryzgalov will eat up all of their currently available cap space (once the cap for next season is announced at between $62 and $63 million--the Flyers can't sign Bryzgalov until that announcement is made because he will put them over the current cap of $59.4m).  At that point, the Flyers will only have 9 forwards (no Leino) and 6 defensemen, so they will need to dump at least $5m in cap space just to fill out the roster.

One has to think the Flyers already have another trade lined up to clear salary, or else they wouldn't have pulled the trigger on this Bryzgalov trade yet.  Carter is the guy everyone is talking about, which makes sense.  I would throw Carle into the fray too, but I don't hear his name come up in rumors very often.

2) Does this say anything about Bobrovsky?  His path to the number 1 job will be blocked for several seasons.  Have the Flyers soured on him?  I guess they could send him to the AHL for a season, though that's probably unlikely.  Most likely is that the team simply decided "screw this, we need a goalie" and they'll worry about Bob later.

3) Should the Flyers be worried about mediocre postseason performances by Bryzgalov in Phoenix?  I don't think so.  He played just fine in the postseason for the Ducks, and his career postseason save percentage in the playoffs is higher than his regular season number.  The Coyotes were hardly a team primed for postseason runs, and he was one of the biggest reasons they got there in the first place.



Long story short, this is very exciting news for the Flyers.  They've got a very good goalie within their grasp, but this trade cannot be judged until Bryzgalov actually signs a contract with the Flyers and we also see what the Flyers send out the door in a subsequent trade.  Also, it's very difficult to see Leino resigning now, unless the Flyers dump Carter AND another significant contract.

It's officially over

As expected, the Bruins series ended promptly this year.  It was a comprehensive thrashing.    There's really not much else to say about it, other than that it shouldn't be all that surprising given the way they looked at the end the season in general; disorganized defensively, tentative, physically unassertive.

I wanted to believe the Flyers would shape up and return to midseason form after some inspired play against Buffalo, but that proved to be a temporary flash against an inferior opponent.

Quick season review:
What went right?
-Giroux emerged as the best player on the team.

-JVR took a big step forward, and should be a key player next year.

-The Meszaros transaction worked out great, being the team's best defense from start to finish this year.  He is signed for 3 more years at $4m per and looks to be the heir apparent to leading the defense as Pronger's and Timonen's ice time declines due to age.

-Bobrovsky showed a lot of promise, with his best hockey coming in November.  That said, I strongly believe his NHL game is not a finished product, and there's no way I'd enter next season with him as the undisputed number 1.

-Nodl's first half.

-The defense was much stronger 1-6, at least when the roster was healthy.

What went wrong?
-Pronger had a mediocre regular season, had injury problems, and essentially missed the end of the season and playoffs.  Honestly I didn't care too much about his regular season because he's a playoff player, but that didn't really work out this year, did it.

-Timonen had his worst season as a Flyer, particularly in the playoffs.  Along with Pronger, questions have to be asked how much their skills will diminish in the next season or two and if they are breaking down.  Timonen is 36 years old and said it himself that he only has so many season in his "stumpy legs."  Maybe he was just playing injured in the playoffs...we'll have to see.

-Richards had an uninspiring regular season, and a particularly disappointing playoffs.  I still say he was injured/out-of-shape.  I hope for his sake it was injured and not the latter.  There's also a lot of chatter about his lack of leadership, but I know nothing about what is really happening in "the room", so I can't speak to that.

-The Versteeg trade is looking like a real dud.  He played a little better in the playoffs, but never contributing in any significant way.  He will have to do better next year to earn the $3m cap hit, or the Flyers should start looking to remedy the mistake of acquiring him in the first place.

-Nodl's second half, the return of Andreas No-Goal.

-Goaltending was not good enough.  It was rendered irrelevant in the Boston series, but the Flyers eeked by a much inferior Buffalo team after what was, taken collectively, probably the worst goaltending performance in a playoff series I've ever seen.

-The power play was really bad, somewhat inexplicably so.

-The Hartnell-Briere-Leino line lost its mojo in the second half of the season.  For last year's playoffs and the first half this year, they were pretty easily the Flyers best 5v5 line, manufacturing scoring chances and pinning in the other team.  Just as an example, Leino's 6 points in 11 playoff games this year is a far cry from his 21 in 19 games last year.

-100 straight games without a shutout.  It's hard to pin down the exact reasons for this, but I say roughly 2/3rds goaltending and 1/3 poor defensive zone coverage and lapses.  Much of a shutout is solid defense combined with a flawless performance by a goalie.



There is really no clear path forward for the Flyers.  That's not to say they're all of a sudden a bad team, I just mean that management could go in several completely different directions.  The only move I think they HAVE to make is a meaningful solution in goal.  What they should do with the skaters however (and if they should shake up the lineup) is very subjective, but almost nothing is off the table.

Trainwrecked

I didn't need to see last night's game to know the Flyers got bulldozed.  All of their flaws were on full display; terrible defensive zone coverage, soft goaltending, lack of hitting, not generating shots from the slot...  The Bruins have comprehensively demolished the Flyers this series.  Of all those factors though the defensive zone coverage and constantly yielding the slot and crease to attackers is the most disappointing to me because you'd think that would be easy to identify and fix.

Ending this series is just a formality at this point.

Other notes:
-Carter played a lot more minutes than expected.

-Goalie pulled for the 6th time in 11 games.  Amazing--not that last night was about goalies anyway.  I think every Flyers fan wanted so badly to see Boucher succeed, but he's just not that good of a goalie.  Does Bob start game 4, just to get the experience?

It's hard to make heads or tails of this Flyers team.  Are they the team that barely qualified for the playoffs last and got bulldozed by the Bruins, or are they the team of last year's cup run and phenomenal first half of this season?  There's many directions Holmgren could go in the offseason, but I guess I'll wait until their season is at least officially over before laying out options.

Game 2 Review

A wild game yesterday, with the Flyers coming out on the right side in the end. Hard to read too much into a game like yesterday with the first period being all over the place, and the rest of the game being a never ending stream of powerplays. Still, I thought it was a better effort from the Flyers. In my opinion, Miller did not play appreciably worse than game 1, where so many wanted to say he stole the game with 35 saves, yet the Flyers hit 5 goals and it wasn't just a lucky afternoon.

Comments;

Goaltending

The obvious question, though I don't think it's really a question anymore; Bobrovsky cannot start game 3.

Okay, I admit I'm a little biased. About a month ago I decided I would go with Boucher for the playoffs. Recent events have made Boucher the obvious choice for game 3, and I just can't see how starting Bobrovsky for game 3 is a defensible position.

Subjectively, Bobrovsky still has some obvious flaws in his game that he hasn't been able to meaningfully address this season. Foremost among them is discomfort with the puck around the net and goalline, and getting small on long shots (I've been beating these horses for a while). Those traits were on full display on the goals 2 and 3 yesterday respectively. Goal 2 in particular was badly misplayed by Bobrovsky, flailing in the crease instead of simply holding the post. Now the Flyers weren't exactly on lockdown for any of the three goals, but Bobrovsky looked completely out of sorts on all of them, and flopping around like a fish on the first goal which is something new for him. Right now, Bobrovsky has lost his way.

Objectively, the numbers are stunning. Bobrovsky has started 7 consecutive games, and has won zero with a .889 save percentage. Let me say that again--DURING THE MOST IMPORTANT STRETCH OF THE SEASON, BOBROVSKY HAS STARTED 7 CONSECUTIVE GAMES AND WON NONE. Even more distressing, in each of the two virtual must-win games for the Flyers (finale versus Islanders and game 2 against Sabres) Bobrovsky was pulled 12 minutes into the game after giving up 3 goals and looking lost. It is somewhat miraculous that Boucher has come into both of those and gotten the win.

I can't blame Laviolette for picking his guy and giving him the keys to the team. However Bobrovsky is not winning and is losing his way. In picking the Sabres to win the series in 7, I stated that I did not think Bob was capable of carrying the load, and worried that by the time Laviolette was ready to take him out, it would be too late.

Well, here is the moment of truth. Bobrovsky may have proven to be level-headed and resilient this season, but this is not just a matter of Bobrovsky bouncing back after a bad game. Bobrovsky is struggling badly and has been disastrous in 2 of his last 3 outings, yet the series is still 1-1. What will Laviolette do? For me the choice is easy. Granted, other writers are making the argument he should stay in, so who knows what will happen. I do have to say though, I find many those arguments completely misguided and unconvincing.

Richards

I'm beginning to think Richards is either sick, injured, or out-of-shape. He can't keep up with the pace of his teammates right now, and is constantly a step slow. He's not been much of a factor thus far.

Carter

Not much better than Richards, though showing less obvious signs of ailing. Just been a nonfactor, plain and simple.

JVR

Arguably the Flyers best forward thus far. He's made real nice strides this season, though maybe not the giant leap Giroux made last year in the playoffs.

Giroux

Speaking of Giroux, he has undoubtedly established himself as the offensive leader of this team. He even had the two biggest hits of the game for the Flyers last night. During the broadcast, the announcers said that, when asked who was the most competitive guy on the team, Briere answered Giroux. It's showing.

Versteeg

I haven't been impressed with Versteeg overall, but he was better last night.

Power play

Still awful. Thankfully the Flyers got one powerplay goal, but they were still 1-10 overall, including two embarrassing lengthy 5-on-3s. I think if the Flyers blew all those second period PPs and didn't score on any of them, they probably would've lost the game yesterday. Maybe getting Pronger back would help?

Pronger

Looks like Pronger won't be back for game 3, and who knows beyond? Even when he does come back, will he be as dangerous on the PP with his bad hand affecting his shot? Tomorrow will be 2.5 weeks since his "setback". Was his setbreak re-breaking his hand? Considering that he's still not shooting on it, yet was shooting on it 9 days after surgery last month, I think that's a real possibility.

Game 1 Review

I didn't have a good feeling about this series, and the Flyers did nothing for me tonight to change any of those worries.

Yes, the Flyers held a clear territorial edge in the play, had 35 shots, and probably outchanced Buffalo about 2-1. Much of the post-game talk was Miller, and Richards said if they continue to play like that, they'll have success.

I disagree. How many times did the Flyers get a great look where you get on the edge of your seat? Damn few. The only decent chances they had were jam plays where you hope somebody pokes the puck in the net when the goalie is down. Miller was solid but didn't do much of note.

This team is still afflicted with stop-and-pass syndrome. I lost count of all the times where the Flyers had odd-man numbers on a rush or around the goal and the puck carrier just stops skating, drifts and throws a hopeful pass into the slot which bounces away harmlessly. It's like the Flyers are afraid to carry the puck to the net or shoot from anywhere but the slot (a play which Buffalo took away). Briere and Meszaros are the only guys willing to shoot. This is the way they've been playing the last month, and it's doubtful it will change now. Carry the puck towards the net aggressively and force the issue!! Coasting and passing to the slot every time is predictable and easy to defend. I don't expect the Flyers to score many goals this series.

Other individual thoughts:

The good

-Real good game for JVR. Probably the Flyers best forward tonight.

-Good first period from Leino, and he created several chances overall.

-Can't fault Briere for anything tonight. He probably had the most hits of any Flyer.

-Bobrovsky gets a pass tonight. Was pretty good in the limited chances he faced, though he gave up a poor rebound that led to the only goal.

The not-so good

-Versteeg is really doing absolutely nothing for me (which has been the case since he arrived)

-Carter did nothing with the puck. He had a few scoring chances, but those came from hanging out away from the puck where Giroux and JVR set him up with their hard work.

-Good to see Richards come out with fire, but he did nothing this game and spent more time yelling at the refs than anything else. Same anonymous play as stretches of the regular season for him this year.

-The PP looked totally hopeless, not that there could've been any reasonable expectation of flipping the switch on that.

-Giroux is trying, but is out of sorts right now. Stickhandling 1-on-4 during the last PP?

My standing prediction was Buffalo in 7. 6 games is looking more likely.