I have written that this year's Flyers really aren't all that good a team, and I haven't seen anything to make me change my mind. They're not contenders, but they are finding their niche as a bubble playoff team.
After a pretty rough start, the Flyers took 7 of 8 points from a 4 game homestand. The wins were hardly commanding victories, but they scrapped out the wins against other bubble teams. They followed that up with a humbling loss in Toronto, before a gritty win in Winnipeg.
The lesson learned from this stretch is we've seen how the Flyers have to win games this year. They don't have the firepower to outscore teams like last year; 4 and 5 goal performances will be rare. Bryzgalov is playing excellent however, as he is tracking the puck very well, and really battling and recovering better. The Flyers also are doing more to collapse around the net in ways they desperately needed to last year.
The Flyers can get some wins this year in this fashion, but it's all pretty fragile. For one, this team is completely dependent on Bryzgalov (hard to believe we're saying that about Bryzgalov after last year, or the Flyers in general, well, ever). Partially because Bryzgalov has been very good, and partially because the backup goalie situation is so lousy.
It's also fragile because of the youth up front. Giroux is looking overwhelmed with Hartnell and Jagr out of the lineup. Recently, Read, Voracek and Schenn have stepped up their play, but who knows how that will keep up. It will be a struggle all season, but hopefully Hartsy and Mesz will be back relatively soon, which will help.
Speak of Jagr...
Jagr is one of many recently departed Flyers doing very well thus far. Jagr has become a key piece on offense for Dallas, and is leading the team with 11 points in 13 games. The Flyers are missing him this year more than I expected. Also;
-Matt Carle is playing big minutes in TB (which shouldn't be surprising) and already has 2 goals. The other key departure for the Flyers this year.
-JVR has 8 goals in 13 games, a pretty stark change from the 11 he scored in 43 for the Flyers last year. Many of these have been of the tap-in variety, finishing off others' plays (he only has 2 assists), but there's nothing wrong with that. He's playing well and with confidence, but there's no need for Flyers fans to panic about that trade at the moment.
-Similar to JVR, Jeff Carter has 6 goals (and only 1 assist) in 11 games for the offensively challenged Kings.
Put all this together, and you can see all the offense that has gone out the door from Philadelphia. That kind of goal-hawking from JVR and Carter is certainly a missing ingredient from this year's Flyers roster.
But Don't Panic
The Flyers have obvious needs, which my man Bill Meltzer accurately describes and prioritizes; "1) a puck-moving defenseman who can play 20+ minutes per game, 2) a scoring winger who possesses both good size and a consistent willingness to work in the "greasy" areas of the ice (though I might go a little more towards high-end skill players who snipe, in the mold of Perry or Iginla mentioned below), 3) a backup goaltending upgrade in case of a long-term injury to Ilya Bryzgalov, 4) a fourth-line center who is strong on defensive zone face-offs." http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=49290#.UR0bGqWyD9l
Despite this, it DOES NOT make sense for the Flyers to go chasing down trades. For one, they are not a contender this year, so trading more youth and picks is a bad idea. The Flyers have very few high-end prospects, and are generally depleted of prospects outside the NHL from trading away so many picks under Holmgen. Second, these are tough holes to fill, as evidenced by the Timonen contract signed last week.
Clearly the Flyers looked around and saw Timonen was their only option for a number 1 defensemen next year. He is old, and isn't the defensemen he used to be, but the Flyers renewed him at a very high cap number (shockingly high at first glance) because they had no other choice. After accepting that reality, my only regret is that they couldn't get Kimmo to resign for say $4.5m instead of 6. $1.5m in cap space will make a difference if the Flyers pursue Iginla or Perry as free agents after this season...
Opinions on NHL topics of the moment, but mostly on the Flyers.
Showing posts with label jagr. Show all posts
Showing posts with label jagr. Show all posts
Thursday, February 14, 2013
Friday, July 6, 2012
A Disappointing Week?
I've been patiently waiting for things to play out, and now most of the big questions have been answered. So...
Parise and Suter
-The Flyers reportedly made massive bids to both Parise and Suter, possibly the biggest offer of any team in terms of dollars and years (over 10 years and over $100m). Honestly, to my relief, neither bid was accepted. All-in-all, their decision to sign jointly in Minnesota is nearly ideal for the Flyers.
I really like Parise's game, and by all reports Suter is a quality top pair defensemen. Still, I don't think it made sense for the Flyers to be saddled with these deals, which would be overpayments unless these guys are MVP or Norris candidates. The Flyers getting either of these guys was always a longshot, but my more realistic concern was Parise signing with the Pens (though I have to say, I'm not sure it was even wise for the Penguins to commit $25m to three forwards for the next 10 years in Malkin, Crosby and Parise). Now the Flyers can breathe a sigh of relief, with both players going to the Western conference rather than strengthening a rival. The real losers of these shenanigans were Detroit and Nashville, who fell short in pursuing Suter and the obvious Suter-Plan-B, Matt Carle.
Carle Signs in TB
-Speaking of Carle, he got a long contract from TB. Flyers fans' initial reaction to this was that the Flyers blew it, by futilely chasing Suter and letting Carle get away. I'm not sure I quite see it that way.
For one, it's not entirely tough luck the Flyers had not already signed him. The fact is, they prioritized signing Grossmann and Coburn over signing Carle. Two, the Flyers took a very strange stance, publicly touting that they believed they could sign Carle for below market value.
For months, I have written here repeatedly that if he got to free agency, someone was going to offer Carle $5m+ a year. The signing of Wideman last week removed all doubt, and evidently caused Carle to reconsider any verbal agreement with the Flyers. My bottom line is this; you can't fight the market with UFAs. Once Carle decided to at least listen to free agent offers, the Flyers had no shot. He was going to wait for Suter to sign, then get a big offer. The Flyers pursuit of Suter made no difference, as by then Carle was in UFA mode and Carle was waiting for Suter before he would sign with anyone (including the Flyers). At that point, the Flyers were not going to come close to TB's offer of $5.5m x 6 years.
Realistically, the Flyers had two options. Sign Carle to ~$5m contract a few months ago and let either Grossmann or Coburn be exposed to UFA offers, or do what they did with Carle. They chose the latter, and I'm not sure I would've done it differently.
Jagr Goes to Dallas
-Another effect of the exploding UFA market this season was Jagr getting a $4.5m deal from Dallas. Again, there is no way the Flyers would offer that much. I would've liked to see the Flyers resign him for something at or below last year's $3.3m contract, but again, you can't fight the market.
As it was, Jagr left and there was a lovefest on twitter between Jagr and his now ex-teammates.
Jaromir Jagr @68Jagr
-Just to everybody knows:Max Talbot is the most underrated and underpaid player in NHL.Holmgren did a great job signing him last season.
-To@28CGiroux:Keep working and soon you will be the best player in NHL like I said.To@Hartsy19:work hard and you will score 40.
Matt Read @MReader24
Was a pleasure play some puck with the legend himself@68Jagr. Best of luck in Dallas Mr. Positive#beauty#alwayssmiling
Oh well, I enjoyed having him around last year.
Gervais and Fedotenko
-Without digging to deeply to analyze these signings, they seem like good ideas to me. Fedotenko's a very experienced vet who can play any forward position and have the full trust of the coach. The cap hit is low, and there's basically no risk in a 1-year contract.
Regarding Gervais, another low risk move that could blossom nicely. He's not going to play many minutes, but with a right-handed shot and his strength being puck movement, he could slot in nicely. If he does have a bounceback season, the Flyers have him under contract next year for super-cheap as well. Also, as an aside, Gervais and Talbot are apparently best buds, and Talbot will be Gervais's best man in his upcoming wedding.
The Picture
So merely assuming Voracek and Bourdon are signed, and the Flyers can use all of Pronger's LTIR allotment, this is the roster today:
That doesn't look too bad, but definitely not as strong as last year. Up front, JVR and Jagr are out, replaced by 3rd liner Fedotenko. In the back, Carle and his 20+ minutes are gone, replaced by Schenn and Gervais. Again, the Flyers are going to be relying on young players to improve and maintain a high level of play. Fortunately, the Flyers still have some flexibility here with ~$8m in cap space to use.
I like the Rick Tocchet plan, which may already be in effect; "If I were Flyers , I would have my attention on Doan and a couple of second tier d-man ...stay with the young core and grab Weber next year".
Doan and Weber would be big for this team, though whether either goes anywhere is up in the air. Nashville will desperately want to keep Weber, but in one year he can do whatever he wants. Doan wants to stay, provided ownership in Phoenix is stabilized.
Personally, I make aggressive offers to Doan for 2 or 3 years. Hopefully higher dollars can substitute for that 4th year he wants, and that other teams will give him.
Regarding Weber, best case scenario for the Flyers is that he plays one more year in Nashville, then goes UFA. The Flyers don't have much left to trade--I wouldn't trade Cooter under any circumstances, and I might've traded Schenn for someone like Weber, but that was before JVR and Jagr were gone. The forwards corps now can't afford to lose Schenn.
The wisest thing for Nashville to do is offer Weber a huge contract, and if he doesn't take it, trade him. They can't afford to lose Weber next year like they lost Suter this year. Unfortunately, this makes it pretty hard on the Flyers to acquire him, in my opinion.
Monday, June 25, 2012
Draft Weekend Recap
Indeed, the pieces on the board began to move this weekend for the Flyers. The rumors were getting crazy on Thursday, and the Flyer were supposedly in on everyone; Nash, Parise, Ryan, Suter, Weber, and trading up in the draft. Ultimately, the Flyers made far less daring moves.
JVR
The move that was so heavily rumored in March finally came about. For starters, I am on board with trading JVR. He seems like a good kid, and he has the talent, I'm just not sure I see him producing consistently. Often the only difference between a journey-man goal scorer and a top line allstar is consistency, and I think JVR will always be a streaky player. He's not effective playing on the outside, and he's simply not a banger at heart. Either way, I've previously written about his development here and here.
As for the particulars on this trade, I wrote about this in March, and not much has changed since...
The Flyers top need was a physical dman, and they now have a promising young one. A good, simple, hockey trade without a clear "winner" in my opinion.
Bobrovsky
Like JVR, I was ready to see Bob go. I also wrote about this the other day. Either way, I think his most likely career path is as a backup or journeyman starter. He will now get a chance to prove himself in Columbus that he won't get here.
The Flyers should be happy with the trade return for him. I think his reputation around the league has sunk a little bit over the last several months, and there was no way the Flyers were going to get the kind of return the Caps got for Varlamov last year---ultimately a fairly high first round pick in a deal that shocked a lot around the league. Still, to salvage a mid-second round pick and two 4th rounders is a good return. The Flyers definitely benefitted from other teams snatching up backup goalie candidates in the previous week, apparently allowing the Flyers to choose between Winnpeg's offer of the #39 pick, or the #45 pick and two 4th rounders from Columbus.
Incidentally, the Flyers drafted a goalie with the #45 pick.
Draft Picks
I will not pretend to know much about who the Flyers drafted. Regarding their first round pick, it was mildly disappointing to see them take a center without high-end potential when they have rarely picked in the first round at all the last few years and desperately need defensemen in the system. On the other hand, this player appears very likely to actually graduate to the NHL, and the Flyers have been amazing at picking winners late in the first round (Gagne, Williams, Giroux). Scouts say this is a very poor draft class as well.
What Next?
First, this is how I see the Flyers cap situation;
To complete this, I guessed at a value for Voracek, and plugged in a backup goalie that may not be accurate, but the salary should be. I also plugged in Carle at $4.25, although I find it hard to believe he will sign for so little, but people keep throwing it out there. The takeaway is that the Flyers could have about $6 million or more to throw at a top-6 forward.
I think their pursuit of Nash is now dead. JVR and Bob were their two major trading chips to get Nash, and they have been cashed in. Personally, I think the Columbus GM is overplaying his hand, and as teams like the Flyers move on, the offers for Nash will now begin to get worse. I wasn't a huge fan of Nash to Philly anyway.
The two major targets the Flyers could go after is Parise or Ryan. Again, the Flyers don't have many assets left to trade for Ryan, so I'm not seeing it. Regarding Parise, I think the Flyers have a lot of interest and will make an offer. I have my doubts about how they'll fare in a bidding war on the open market, however.
The conservative course is to resign Jagr and pick up a role-player for the bottom two lines for about $5 million combined. This is probably the wisest course in my opinion. Granted, maybe the Flyers can't resign Carle or Voracek (silence is ominous regarding his extension, I think), and then all this needs to be re-evaluated.
JVR
The move that was so heavily rumored in March finally came about. For starters, I am on board with trading JVR. He seems like a good kid, and he has the talent, I'm just not sure I see him producing consistently. Often the only difference between a journey-man goal scorer and a top line allstar is consistency, and I think JVR will always be a streaky player. He's not effective playing on the outside, and he's simply not a banger at heart. Either way, I've previously written about his development here and here.
As for the particulars on this trade, I wrote about this in March, and not much has changed since...
On paper, the trade makes a lot of sense. It is a like-for-like trade:http://mostlyflyers.blogspot.com/2012/01/jvr-for-luke-schenn.html
-both players were very high draft picks; JVR #2 in 2007 and Schenn #5 in 2008
-both players have made some noise in the NHL, with Schenn immediately joining the big club as an 18 year old and JVR turning a lot of heads in the playoffs last year
-both players may be seen as underwhelming in their development, with Schenn's ice time down this year and JVR not building off last year's playoffs
-both players are signed to manageable long term contracts
The Flyers need defensemen, the Leafs need size up front. The trade is merely teams trying to address an organizational need while holding their salary, youth and long term potential constant.
All that said, the devil will be in details. Flyers fans expect Schenn and other goodies for JVR, and Leafs fan vice-versa. A rumor I read yesterday is that it will be the Flyers who have to sweeten the pot to complete the deal, and the Leafs want Matt Read.
No thanks on that one. If that's the case I walk away.
The Flyers top need was a physical dman, and they now have a promising young one. A good, simple, hockey trade without a clear "winner" in my opinion.
Bobrovsky
Like JVR, I was ready to see Bob go. I also wrote about this the other day. Either way, I think his most likely career path is as a backup or journeyman starter. He will now get a chance to prove himself in Columbus that he won't get here.
The Flyers should be happy with the trade return for him. I think his reputation around the league has sunk a little bit over the last several months, and there was no way the Flyers were going to get the kind of return the Caps got for Varlamov last year---ultimately a fairly high first round pick in a deal that shocked a lot around the league. Still, to salvage a mid-second round pick and two 4th rounders is a good return. The Flyers definitely benefitted from other teams snatching up backup goalie candidates in the previous week, apparently allowing the Flyers to choose between Winnpeg's offer of the #39 pick, or the #45 pick and two 4th rounders from Columbus.
Incidentally, the Flyers drafted a goalie with the #45 pick.
Draft Picks
I will not pretend to know much about who the Flyers drafted. Regarding their first round pick, it was mildly disappointing to see them take a center without high-end potential when they have rarely picked in the first round at all the last few years and desperately need defensemen in the system. On the other hand, this player appears very likely to actually graduate to the NHL, and the Flyers have been amazing at picking winners late in the first round (Gagne, Williams, Giroux). Scouts say this is a very poor draft class as well.
What Next?
First, this is how I see the Flyers cap situation;
To complete this, I guessed at a value for Voracek, and plugged in a backup goalie that may not be accurate, but the salary should be. I also plugged in Carle at $4.25, although I find it hard to believe he will sign for so little, but people keep throwing it out there. The takeaway is that the Flyers could have about $6 million or more to throw at a top-6 forward.
I think their pursuit of Nash is now dead. JVR and Bob were their two major trading chips to get Nash, and they have been cashed in. Personally, I think the Columbus GM is overplaying his hand, and as teams like the Flyers move on, the offers for Nash will now begin to get worse. I wasn't a huge fan of Nash to Philly anyway.
The two major targets the Flyers could go after is Parise or Ryan. Again, the Flyers don't have many assets left to trade for Ryan, so I'm not seeing it. Regarding Parise, I think the Flyers have a lot of interest and will make an offer. I have my doubts about how they'll fare in a bidding war on the open market, however.
The conservative course is to resign Jagr and pick up a role-player for the bottom two lines for about $5 million combined. This is probably the wisest course in my opinion. Granted, maybe the Flyers can't resign Carle or Voracek (silence is ominous regarding his extension, I think), and then all this needs to be re-evaluated.
Monday, June 11, 2012
Offseason Preparations
I've had my little break, and the dust has settled after the playoff exit. Offseason grumblings are beginning to trickle out, so I'd like to make sense of it all.
Starting with the least speculative news, multiple reports last week indicated Jagr's first choice is to indeed resign with the Flyers, despite the indications that he was ready to move on fresh off the playoff loss. Talks with the Flyers are said to be progressing, with one rumor on twitter saying that an agreement is already reached.
Additionally, claims are that the Flyers will resign Carle too, at slightly below market rate. The twist to all this that the Flyers don't have the "tagging space" to sign them yet (basically, your payroll next year can't exceed this year's cap). As a result, the cap will rise to $70.3 million on July 1, and the Flyers will be free to sign these guys then. By that time however, Carle will officially be a free agent, and I still think someone throws $5+ million at him. Could that throw a wrench in the Flyers plans?
Either way, let's assume these signings both happen. Now I have heard NOTHING about Voracek resigning, but let's plug that in too. You get this picture.
*This is without the "bonus cushion." This means that for players like Schenn, his cap hit will be the full $3.11m until he misses a bonus benchmark. This will happen soon, but even so, this is the limit with which the Flyers must comply on opening day. If there is the "bonus cushion" this season, the Flyers can exceed the cap by such a bonus, but would be penalized if the players ultimately earned the bonus and send the Flyers over the cap.
Now ignore the lines, and I had to guess at contract values for Jagr, Voracek and Carle, but this should be more or less accurate. The main takeaway is that, making no other changes, merely resigning these guys leaves little cap space for other signings. This leaves the possibility of a plain vanilla offseason of resignings only, with no other acquisitions of note.
The Flyers rarely stand pat though, often pulling off trades at the draft. I'm not going to speculate on roster depth maneuvers, but there could be a few big pieces in play.
JVR-Nash Rumors
For one, Howard Eskin dropped this nugget yesterday; JVR is delaying having surgery, which could hold up a trade for Nash because the Flyers can't trade him if he isn't healthy. Now Eskin knows nothing about hockey in terms of analysis, but his information is good. He usually only says something about the Flyers when he gets good info.
JVR was on the Flyers post-season surgery list, and unusually (but not shockingly), he has not had the surgery yet. The Flyers have already denied the insinuation that there is any intent on the part of JVR to delay his surgery, and that does seem like a bombastic accusation.
Putting aside the question of intent by JVR, but taking the underlying issue of his health holding up a trade as true, this transaction would return to a few themes. Go back to the trade deadline, and the Flyers were players for Nash. It was left at, and I quote Darren Dreger, "Price too high for Flyers(at moment) for Nash. May re-engage later. JVR,Bobrovski, Schenn or Couturier believed to be part of asking price." Also, this would be the second time a JVR injury is seen as holding up a deal, as he was out with a concussion in February when the Luke Schenn trade rumors were everywhere.
I've already evaluated a JVR-Nash trade, but my stance remains the same---JVR will never be the player Nash is, but Nash's best days are behind him. JVR and Bob I'd be happy to trade, but I would not include Schenn or Cooter in the trade for a diminishing star with a big cap hit like Nash. We'll see if there's anything to this.
Nashville Defensemen
Putting aside Nash, the Flyers real need is top-end defensemen. The two names being thrown around are Suter and Tobias Enstrom. Enstrom is basically a younger Timonen, but he has one year left on his contract (at a low cap it), and would require a trade to acquire. Suter will be a free agent on July 1, and Nashville is trying hard to resign him.
I've seen reports that the Suter doesn't want to sign with the Flyers, but even assuming those are incorrect, I doubt we'll see this signing. For one, Nashville has the cap space and will pull out all the stops to keep him. Second, everyone knows Detroit wants him, and Detroit has just seen Lidstrom retire and is letting Stuart go. I think Suter stays in Nashville or goes to Detroit.
This situation creates a second domino--Shea Weber. He is my grand hope for the Flyers this offseason. A full-on replacement for Chris Pronger. Weber is a restricted free agent, so practically this means a trade. JVR again? (A JVR+Mesz+picks seems to be a popular rumor. I'd take that trade FWIW.) The wrinkle here is that Weber and Suter are the spine of Nashville's team, and despite their limited budget, I can't see any way they let both Weber and Suter go. Despite my fantasies, I think the most likely scenario is Suter to Detroit, Weber staying in Nashville.
Bobrovsky
Getting back to Bobrovsky, the Flyers could try to save some cap space but getting a cheaper backup. Bob's future prospects in Philadelphia are waning, though I was an advocate of trading him last offseason. I don't think Bob has nearly as much trading value as Flyers fans like to believe, but the time might be right to trade him anyway and bring in an experienced number 2.
Starting with the least speculative news, multiple reports last week indicated Jagr's first choice is to indeed resign with the Flyers, despite the indications that he was ready to move on fresh off the playoff loss. Talks with the Flyers are said to be progressing, with one rumor on twitter saying that an agreement is already reached.
Additionally, claims are that the Flyers will resign Carle too, at slightly below market rate. The twist to all this that the Flyers don't have the "tagging space" to sign them yet (basically, your payroll next year can't exceed this year's cap). As a result, the cap will rise to $70.3 million on July 1, and the Flyers will be free to sign these guys then. By that time however, Carle will officially be a free agent, and I still think someone throws $5+ million at him. Could that throw a wrench in the Flyers plans?
Either way, let's assume these signings both happen. Now I have heard NOTHING about Voracek resigning, but let's plug that in too. You get this picture.
*This is without the "bonus cushion." This means that for players like Schenn, his cap hit will be the full $3.11m until he misses a bonus benchmark. This will happen soon, but even so, this is the limit with which the Flyers must comply on opening day. If there is the "bonus cushion" this season, the Flyers can exceed the cap by such a bonus, but would be penalized if the players ultimately earned the bonus and send the Flyers over the cap.
Now ignore the lines, and I had to guess at contract values for Jagr, Voracek and Carle, but this should be more or less accurate. The main takeaway is that, making no other changes, merely resigning these guys leaves little cap space for other signings. This leaves the possibility of a plain vanilla offseason of resignings only, with no other acquisitions of note.
The Flyers rarely stand pat though, often pulling off trades at the draft. I'm not going to speculate on roster depth maneuvers, but there could be a few big pieces in play.
JVR-Nash Rumors
For one, Howard Eskin dropped this nugget yesterday; JVR is delaying having surgery, which could hold up a trade for Nash because the Flyers can't trade him if he isn't healthy. Now Eskin knows nothing about hockey in terms of analysis, but his information is good. He usually only says something about the Flyers when he gets good info.
JVR was on the Flyers post-season surgery list, and unusually (but not shockingly), he has not had the surgery yet. The Flyers have already denied the insinuation that there is any intent on the part of JVR to delay his surgery, and that does seem like a bombastic accusation.
Putting aside the question of intent by JVR, but taking the underlying issue of his health holding up a trade as true, this transaction would return to a few themes. Go back to the trade deadline, and the Flyers were players for Nash. It was left at, and I quote Darren Dreger, "Price too high for Flyers(at moment) for Nash. May re-engage later. JVR,Bobrovski, Schenn or Couturier believed to be part of asking price." Also, this would be the second time a JVR injury is seen as holding up a deal, as he was out with a concussion in February when the Luke Schenn trade rumors were everywhere.
I've already evaluated a JVR-Nash trade, but my stance remains the same---JVR will never be the player Nash is, but Nash's best days are behind him. JVR and Bob I'd be happy to trade, but I would not include Schenn or Cooter in the trade for a diminishing star with a big cap hit like Nash. We'll see if there's anything to this.
Nashville Defensemen
Putting aside Nash, the Flyers real need is top-end defensemen. The two names being thrown around are Suter and Tobias Enstrom. Enstrom is basically a younger Timonen, but he has one year left on his contract (at a low cap it), and would require a trade to acquire. Suter will be a free agent on July 1, and Nashville is trying hard to resign him.
I've seen reports that the Suter doesn't want to sign with the Flyers, but even assuming those are incorrect, I doubt we'll see this signing. For one, Nashville has the cap space and will pull out all the stops to keep him. Second, everyone knows Detroit wants him, and Detroit has just seen Lidstrom retire and is letting Stuart go. I think Suter stays in Nashville or goes to Detroit.
This situation creates a second domino--Shea Weber. He is my grand hope for the Flyers this offseason. A full-on replacement for Chris Pronger. Weber is a restricted free agent, so practically this means a trade. JVR again? (A JVR+Mesz+picks seems to be a popular rumor. I'd take that trade FWIW.) The wrinkle here is that Weber and Suter are the spine of Nashville's team, and despite their limited budget, I can't see any way they let both Weber and Suter go. Despite my fantasies, I think the most likely scenario is Suter to Detroit, Weber staying in Nashville.
Bobrovsky
Getting back to Bobrovsky, the Flyers could try to save some cap space but getting a cheaper backup. Bob's future prospects in Philadelphia are waning, though I was an advocate of trading him last offseason. I don't think Bob has nearly as much trading value as Flyers fans like to believe, but the time might be right to trade him anyway and bring in an experienced number 2.
Sunday, May 13, 2012
The Offseason Plan
THE SETUP
Here is my best guess as to what the Flyers base lineup will be.
Notes to this chart
-Nearly all of these salary numbers are final, except for Bourdon and Voracek. They are RFAs, and I have guessed at salaries for them
-Pronger, Kubina, Carle and Jagr are not in this lineup.
-A salary cap of $69 million, which is a number that has been thrown around. Obviously with the CBA expiring things could get interesting regarding the cap.
THE ISSUES
-Is Jagr coming back?
That is the first question to answer. If the season ended in January, I would say definitely. He looked tired and beat up as the season carried on though, and his role was reduced. Jagr loved everything about playing for the Flyers this year, and he sounds like he wants one more year in the NHL, but he won't sign here unless he feels he will get significant minutes. He signed with the Flyers against expectations last year because he thought it was a good "hockey fit", and he will leave if that "hockey fit" no longer applies.
-The Defense
By signing Grossmann to an extension, the Flyers took care of their top offseason priority in April. That seems like a decent contract, provided his knees hold up. The Flyers still need help back here though, with Pronger seemingly done, and Timonen is at the end of his career, undersized, and has not survived an 82 game season without sustaining performance-inhibiting injuries the last 2 seasons.
I don't think Carle will be back, because someone will be willing to give him $5m+ a year for several years, and I don't think the Flyers should be that team. You never know though with the way Clarke is talking. There's also a (very) small chance Timonen could retire, freeing up his $6.3m salary, and the Flyers could chase Suter for big money.
Lastly, I've seen spitballing the Flyers could trade for someone like Weber, would involve trading significant assets. Such a move fits the Flyers MO, and while it would hurt to trade away more picks and young forwards, a defense corps with Coburn, Carle and Weber could be rock solid for several years. So many variables to that though...
-Size up front
The Flyers score a ton of goals, but their forward corps is small and not very physical. A big body for the 2/3rd line (who plays big) would balance the roster.
-Goaltending
Nothing to discuss here really. Bryzgalov did not have a good year overall, but I expect improvement next year now that he knows what to expect in Philly. His instincts with the media are wrong for the town, but he's figuring it out.
If you recall, at the end of February, Bryzgalov made comments about "finding the peace in his soul" to play in this city. Most commented that this was a very troubling sign reflecting a discouraged player, and I said it was a good sign. For the record, on the day of that comment, Bryzgalov's save percentage stood at .898. After that comment, he had a spectacular month of March and had a .929 save percentage for the remainder of the season. He will still makes gaffes, but now he knows the lay of the land in Philly and will be better for it.
THE PLAN
There are a ton of ways you could go, but this is what I would do:
-Trade JVR, preferably for an up-and-coming dman. I'm not sure what the trade value of JVR is right now, and if it's diminished in the last few months, but surely the Flyers could make a "hockey trade" for a talented young defenseman whose career is also experiencing less than an exponential growth. Personally, I don't see JVR as a player who will ever consistently perform at all-star level, and the team needs defense more than another skating forward.
JVR could also be the centerpiece of a larger deal for a prominent defensemen.
-Sign a rugged 2/3 line winger to fill JVR's now vacant spot in the top nine. Unfortunately there aren't many such candidates out there on the UFA market, though Shane Doan, Ryan Smyth, Paul Gaustad, Dustin Penner, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Travis Moen and Daniel Winnik might be worth looking into.
-If you can skillfully pull these two things off, the Flyers will still have $3-7 million in cap space to play with, allowing for other signings or taking salary in a trade that could further bolster the defense.
-Make an executive order for system adjustments. I've been beating this drum for a few months. I was really hoping that, as a silver lining to a deep Flyers cup run, would be to buck the trend of tight defense in the NHL today. Alas, look at the teams left in the playoffs; LA (2nd in goals against, and they eliminated VAN and STL who were 4th and 1st respectively), Phoenix (5th), NY (3rd), NJ (9th) and the Caps, who are 21st but only because they started a season with a different coach. Clutch-and-grab is creeping back into the game.
I also believe Bryzgalov will look like a different goalie in a defense-first scheme. This is how he did it in PHX, and his clear weaknesses are side-to-side movement and shot recovery. Defense-first is the way the wind is blowing, and could maximize the talent the Flyers have. Can Lavy make that adjustment? If the team is still leaking goals and looking unspectacular in December, his seat will begin to get hot.
Here is my best guess as to what the Flyers base lineup will be.
Notes to this chart
-Nearly all of these salary numbers are final, except for Bourdon and Voracek. They are RFAs, and I have guessed at salaries for them
-Pronger, Kubina, Carle and Jagr are not in this lineup.
-A salary cap of $69 million, which is a number that has been thrown around. Obviously with the CBA expiring things could get interesting regarding the cap.
THE ISSUES
-Is Jagr coming back?
That is the first question to answer. If the season ended in January, I would say definitely. He looked tired and beat up as the season carried on though, and his role was reduced. Jagr loved everything about playing for the Flyers this year, and he sounds like he wants one more year in the NHL, but he won't sign here unless he feels he will get significant minutes. He signed with the Flyers against expectations last year because he thought it was a good "hockey fit", and he will leave if that "hockey fit" no longer applies.
-The Defense
By signing Grossmann to an extension, the Flyers took care of their top offseason priority in April. That seems like a decent contract, provided his knees hold up. The Flyers still need help back here though, with Pronger seemingly done, and Timonen is at the end of his career, undersized, and has not survived an 82 game season without sustaining performance-inhibiting injuries the last 2 seasons.
I don't think Carle will be back, because someone will be willing to give him $5m+ a year for several years, and I don't think the Flyers should be that team. You never know though with the way Clarke is talking. There's also a (very) small chance Timonen could retire, freeing up his $6.3m salary, and the Flyers could chase Suter for big money.
Lastly, I've seen spitballing the Flyers could trade for someone like Weber, would involve trading significant assets. Such a move fits the Flyers MO, and while it would hurt to trade away more picks and young forwards, a defense corps with Coburn, Carle and Weber could be rock solid for several years. So many variables to that though...
-Size up front
The Flyers score a ton of goals, but their forward corps is small and not very physical. A big body for the 2/3rd line (who plays big) would balance the roster.
-Goaltending
Nothing to discuss here really. Bryzgalov did not have a good year overall, but I expect improvement next year now that he knows what to expect in Philly. His instincts with the media are wrong for the town, but he's figuring it out.
If you recall, at the end of February, Bryzgalov made comments about "finding the peace in his soul" to play in this city. Most commented that this was a very troubling sign reflecting a discouraged player, and I said it was a good sign. For the record, on the day of that comment, Bryzgalov's save percentage stood at .898. After that comment, he had a spectacular month of March and had a .929 save percentage for the remainder of the season. He will still makes gaffes, but now he knows the lay of the land in Philly and will be better for it.
THE PLAN
There are a ton of ways you could go, but this is what I would do:
-Trade JVR, preferably for an up-and-coming dman. I'm not sure what the trade value of JVR is right now, and if it's diminished in the last few months, but surely the Flyers could make a "hockey trade" for a talented young defenseman whose career is also experiencing less than an exponential growth. Personally, I don't see JVR as a player who will ever consistently perform at all-star level, and the team needs defense more than another skating forward.
JVR could also be the centerpiece of a larger deal for a prominent defensemen.
-Sign a rugged 2/3 line winger to fill JVR's now vacant spot in the top nine. Unfortunately there aren't many such candidates out there on the UFA market, though Shane Doan, Ryan Smyth, Paul Gaustad, Dustin Penner, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Travis Moen and Daniel Winnik might be worth looking into.
-If you can skillfully pull these two things off, the Flyers will still have $3-7 million in cap space to play with, allowing for other signings or taking salary in a trade that could further bolster the defense.
-Make an executive order for system adjustments. I've been beating this drum for a few months. I was really hoping that, as a silver lining to a deep Flyers cup run, would be to buck the trend of tight defense in the NHL today. Alas, look at the teams left in the playoffs; LA (2nd in goals against, and they eliminated VAN and STL who were 4th and 1st respectively), Phoenix (5th), NY (3rd), NJ (9th) and the Caps, who are 21st but only because they started a season with a different coach. Clutch-and-grab is creeping back into the game.
I also believe Bryzgalov will look like a different goalie in a defense-first scheme. This is how he did it in PHX, and his clear weaknesses are side-to-side movement and shot recovery. Defense-first is the way the wind is blowing, and could maximize the talent the Flyers have. Can Lavy make that adjustment? If the team is still leaking goals and looking unspectacular in December, his seat will begin to get hot.
Friday, May 11, 2012
Season Review
All playoff exits feel disappointing. Through the ups and downs, fans always convince themselves that their team can win any series. The Flyers flame-out was sudden, but in the long view, it makes a little more sense.
At no point this season did I think the Flyers were really primed for a serious cup run. They were too young up front, having traded away their core forwards. Then things started going pretty well, but Pronger went down. Without Pronger, I thought a long playoff run was precluded.
The Flyers defensive and goaltending struggles reinforced that perception, until March shutouts made me begin to think I could be wrong. The defense showed hope, and they could score whenever they needed to. Eventually however, the gas tank ran dry and ingrained problems caught up to them.
It was a memorable and exciting season, and I could not label this team as underachievers. That's pretty much all you can ask for as a fan.
PLAYER REVIEWS
Forwards:
-Giroux. The burden fell to him to step up with Carter and Richards gone, and he responded with an MVP caliber season that Richards or Carter never produced.
-Briere. A very poor regular season, largely saved by 8 playoff goals. His overall game never really fired on all cylinders though, even in the playoffs.
-Voracek. His 49 points is not all that impressive, but he was a valuable player for the Flyers, and I certainly didn't see anything like conditioning or effort issues that his old CBJ coach criticized him for on the way out. He may never break 25 goals or 65 points, but I could see him being a winger on a quality top line.
-Hartnell. A quiet playoffs shouldn't dilute a career year, and I think he was playing hurt anyway. Consistently energetic, physical, and showed a finishing touch I didn't think he had. All this after a pre-season lost to health concerns and a terrible start.
-Jagr. 54 points in 73 games, veteran leadership, and the self-proclaimed "most enjoyable year" of his career. That qualifies as a success. Jagr did have some nagging groin issues, and his energy level fluctuated throughout the year, so it remains to be seen if he will be back.
-Schenn. 18 points in 54 games is an unimpressive line, but he improved as the season wore on, and I'd go so far as to say he was the Flyers' best player in game 1 of the Pittsburgh series. I expect him to take the next step in his career next year.
-Read. He turned out to be one of the best rookies in the league. 24 goals, played everywhere on the front line, and in all situations. Pretty much ideal.
-Simmonds. Almost doubled his career high in goals, largely due to 11 PP goals. He looks to be a streaky scorer going forward, as he battles and puts himself in good positions but doesn't have very soft hands, his physical initiative will make him a fan favorite.
-Talbot. Gave the Flyers everything they could hope for. A lunchpail player and team guy, he went from 8 goals last season with Pittsburgh to 19 this year, and he and Giroux were lethal shorthanded in the playoffs.
-Couturier. Surpassed all expectations this season, with 13 goals and logged big minutes in the playoffs. Remarkable for an 18 year old, I could not identify any clear deficiencies in his game. What a draft day steal, he could be a key player for the Flyers for a long time.
-Wellwood. Nothing spectacular, but a young, speedy player that should be an asset for bottom lines and depth next year.
-Rinaldo. Did all that could be asked of him. Not a high skill guy, he successfully brought a lot of energy and spark to the Flyers. He will have to continue to work on his discipline, though in his defense, he is clearly targeted by the officials and is on the short end of a lot of marginal calls.
-JVR. I think JVR had a very disappointing season. Yes, he had injuries, and his point production was decent before all the injuries. Still, I wrote that his early stat line flattered his play even before all the injuries, and there's no escaping the reality of the 11g, 13a, 43gp for a player who was supposed to score 30+ goals this year. He was very good in game 1 against NJ, but did little else in that series.
-Shelley. Yes, he is still on this team.
Defense:
-Timonen. Another year of wear and tear on Timonen's body, he still was able to be the Flyers top defensemen this year. Injuries severely limited him in the playoffs.
-Meszaros. Was inconsistent all year, never finding the form he had most of last season. Then his season was cut short by an injury. Maybe next year will be a bounce back season.
-Coburn. Unremarkable regular season, but logged huge minutes in the playoffs.
-Grossmann. The strong, defense-first, shot-blocking defenseman the team needed. He has bad knees though, so let's hope they hold up.
-Carle. The team's de facto number 1 defensemen this year, covering a lot of territory and eating minutes. A very good chance that his time as a Flyers is over, however.
-Kubina. He could not provide the reliable veteran presence the team was looking for---too old and slow, and picked up some injuries too. Little chance of him returning.
-Pronger. His season never really started, and his career may be over. It's a shame his time with the Flyers was so short-lived.
-Gustafsson. He really made some nice strides this season, though he could struggle at times. Skilled and smart, but undersized. It will be interesting to see what he can do next year in extended time.
-Bourdon. Another pleasant surprise, as his career seemed to have stalled in the minors. Looks like he might have an NHL future yet.
-Lilja. Seldom used in the regular season, played decently in the playoffs. Too old and slow to play a significant role.
Goalies:
-Bryzgalov. Things did not go as planned, though he was amazing in March. Too inconsistent and gaffe prone, but on and off the ice. Seemingly has some growing up to do, though a full season in Philly under his belt will help. Expectations will remain high with his 9 year contract. I am optimistic.
-Bobrovsky. Started the season strong, but on the whole did not take the next step in his career this year. Now heading into the last year of his contract with the Flyers.
At no point this season did I think the Flyers were really primed for a serious cup run. They were too young up front, having traded away their core forwards. Then things started going pretty well, but Pronger went down. Without Pronger, I thought a long playoff run was precluded.
The Flyers defensive and goaltending struggles reinforced that perception, until March shutouts made me begin to think I could be wrong. The defense showed hope, and they could score whenever they needed to. Eventually however, the gas tank ran dry and ingrained problems caught up to them.
It was a memorable and exciting season, and I could not label this team as underachievers. That's pretty much all you can ask for as a fan.
PLAYER REVIEWS
Forwards:
-Giroux. The burden fell to him to step up with Carter and Richards gone, and he responded with an MVP caliber season that Richards or Carter never produced.
-Briere. A very poor regular season, largely saved by 8 playoff goals. His overall game never really fired on all cylinders though, even in the playoffs.
-Voracek. His 49 points is not all that impressive, but he was a valuable player for the Flyers, and I certainly didn't see anything like conditioning or effort issues that his old CBJ coach criticized him for on the way out. He may never break 25 goals or 65 points, but I could see him being a winger on a quality top line.
-Hartnell. A quiet playoffs shouldn't dilute a career year, and I think he was playing hurt anyway. Consistently energetic, physical, and showed a finishing touch I didn't think he had. All this after a pre-season lost to health concerns and a terrible start.
-Jagr. 54 points in 73 games, veteran leadership, and the self-proclaimed "most enjoyable year" of his career. That qualifies as a success. Jagr did have some nagging groin issues, and his energy level fluctuated throughout the year, so it remains to be seen if he will be back.
-Schenn. 18 points in 54 games is an unimpressive line, but he improved as the season wore on, and I'd go so far as to say he was the Flyers' best player in game 1 of the Pittsburgh series. I expect him to take the next step in his career next year.
-Read. He turned out to be one of the best rookies in the league. 24 goals, played everywhere on the front line, and in all situations. Pretty much ideal.
-Simmonds. Almost doubled his career high in goals, largely due to 11 PP goals. He looks to be a streaky scorer going forward, as he battles and puts himself in good positions but doesn't have very soft hands, his physical initiative will make him a fan favorite.
-Talbot. Gave the Flyers everything they could hope for. A lunchpail player and team guy, he went from 8 goals last season with Pittsburgh to 19 this year, and he and Giroux were lethal shorthanded in the playoffs.
-Couturier. Surpassed all expectations this season, with 13 goals and logged big minutes in the playoffs. Remarkable for an 18 year old, I could not identify any clear deficiencies in his game. What a draft day steal, he could be a key player for the Flyers for a long time.
-Wellwood. Nothing spectacular, but a young, speedy player that should be an asset for bottom lines and depth next year.
-Rinaldo. Did all that could be asked of him. Not a high skill guy, he successfully brought a lot of energy and spark to the Flyers. He will have to continue to work on his discipline, though in his defense, he is clearly targeted by the officials and is on the short end of a lot of marginal calls.
-JVR. I think JVR had a very disappointing season. Yes, he had injuries, and his point production was decent before all the injuries. Still, I wrote that his early stat line flattered his play even before all the injuries, and there's no escaping the reality of the 11g, 13a, 43gp for a player who was supposed to score 30+ goals this year. He was very good in game 1 against NJ, but did little else in that series.
-Shelley. Yes, he is still on this team.
Defense:
-Timonen. Another year of wear and tear on Timonen's body, he still was able to be the Flyers top defensemen this year. Injuries severely limited him in the playoffs.
-Meszaros. Was inconsistent all year, never finding the form he had most of last season. Then his season was cut short by an injury. Maybe next year will be a bounce back season.
-Coburn. Unremarkable regular season, but logged huge minutes in the playoffs.
-Grossmann. The strong, defense-first, shot-blocking defenseman the team needed. He has bad knees though, so let's hope they hold up.
-Carle. The team's de facto number 1 defensemen this year, covering a lot of territory and eating minutes. A very good chance that his time as a Flyers is over, however.
-Kubina. He could not provide the reliable veteran presence the team was looking for---too old and slow, and picked up some injuries too. Little chance of him returning.
-Pronger. His season never really started, and his career may be over. It's a shame his time with the Flyers was so short-lived.
-Gustafsson. He really made some nice strides this season, though he could struggle at times. Skilled and smart, but undersized. It will be interesting to see what he can do next year in extended time.
-Bourdon. Another pleasant surprise, as his career seemed to have stalled in the minors. Looks like he might have an NHL future yet.
-Lilja. Seldom used in the regular season, played decently in the playoffs. Too old and slow to play a significant role.
Goalies:
-Bryzgalov. Things did not go as planned, though he was amazing in March. Too inconsistent and gaffe prone, but on and off the ice. Seemingly has some growing up to do, though a full season in Philly under his belt will help. Expectations will remain high with his 9 year contract. I am optimistic.
-Bobrovsky. Started the season strong, but on the whole did not take the next step in his career this year. Now heading into the last year of his contract with the Flyers.
Monday, May 7, 2012
Devils Game 4 Review
Well, it was fun while it lasted. The Flyers may not be officially eliminated, but it would take a miracle. 3-1 comebacks are quite rare, and the Devils dominated game 2 and 4. It's very hard to envision the Flyers mounting any comeback of consequence. Maybe I'll give them a 1-in-3 chance of winning game 5, mainly because I have tickets to the game and I don't want to feel like I wasted my money.
The Devils have completely swarmed the Flyers. Game 1 started off this way, but everyone wrote it off due the Devils being sharp and the Flyers waking up from the week-long layoff. Instead, that trend has accelerated.
I feel like there's a "chicken and the egg" scenario at play. The Devils forecheck has overwhelmed the Flyers, and now they look confused and are being completely outskated. Which came first? The overwhelming forecheck making the Flyers look slow, or the Flyers simply didn't have jump which allowed the Devils to forecheck so effectively?
I think it's probably the tactics. The Flyers forwards try to leave the zone so quickly, as they have all year, but the Devils have successfully pressured the Flyers defensemen. Without the time or ability to find the forwards, the defensemen keep playing the puck to empty space, and the Devils get there first.
At the same time, I don't discount the Flyers mental let-down from beating Pittsburgh. They put so much energy and passion into this series, it was like they couldn't get up for this series mentally. The situation was ripe for a letdown, and the Flyers fan base was certainly lulled into a false sense of security--"we killed the mighty Pens, so we'll crush the Devils easily." Admittedly, I didn't think a letdown would become a total disintegration like we are seeing though.
The Flyers look confused and tentative, and Laviolette probably does not have some magic elixir up his sleeve. The Devils might put them out of their misery pretty quick.
Notes:
-An up and down night for Giroux. He scored a nice shorthanded goal, allaying my fears that the rumors of his bad groin would prevent him from bursts of speed. After scoring however, he was more interested in barking at the ref than anything else. It was a bad sign, indicating his emotions were getting away from him.
Later, after the officials blew a call on Brodeur for playing the puck outside the trapezoid, Giroux again assailed the officials, then took out his frustration with a dirty check to Zubrus's head. This was pretty much the type of headshot for which I roasted Malkin and Neal. Late, opportunistic headhunting. If it was my NHL, Giroux would be suspended. As it is, given that Giroux didn't make an egregiously illegal hit by leaving his feet or throwing an elbow, has no prior history, and Zubrus wasn't hurt, I suspect all we'll see is a fine.
-Speaking of Brodeur, his special treatment from the refs continues. The interference call on Hartnell was blatantly wrong, as Hartnell was clearly checked into him, and at mild contact Brodeur wildly kicked his legs and threw his arms around. He also dodged a penalty for handling the puck. That's 3 games in a row where Brodeur has drawn a penalty on the Flyers when there simply wasn't much (or anything at all) there. [JVR called for slashing in Game 2 when going for a loose puck, Schenn makes slight skate-to-skate contact and Broduer flops in game 3].
-The Flyers' lines are all mixed up. Couturier played, but barely. This broke up his checking line with Wellwood and Talbot, so Wellwood also barely played. I do support Laviolette's decision to break up the Jagr-Giroux-Hartnell. Whether it's injuries or whatever, their not playing well individually or collectively.
-Regarding Bryzgalov, anyone who tries to pin this debacle on the goaltending is an idiot. The Flyers were dominated in games 2 and 4, but the game was close to the end because of Bryzgalov. I don't like how he threw up his hands after the Devils' 3rd goal last night though, even if it was shockingly bad coverage. For once the Flyers can reflect on their playoff run and don't need to ask themselves how they were sabotaged by goaltending.
The Devils have completely swarmed the Flyers. Game 1 started off this way, but everyone wrote it off due the Devils being sharp and the Flyers waking up from the week-long layoff. Instead, that trend has accelerated.
I feel like there's a "chicken and the egg" scenario at play. The Devils forecheck has overwhelmed the Flyers, and now they look confused and are being completely outskated. Which came first? The overwhelming forecheck making the Flyers look slow, or the Flyers simply didn't have jump which allowed the Devils to forecheck so effectively?
I think it's probably the tactics. The Flyers forwards try to leave the zone so quickly, as they have all year, but the Devils have successfully pressured the Flyers defensemen. Without the time or ability to find the forwards, the defensemen keep playing the puck to empty space, and the Devils get there first.
At the same time, I don't discount the Flyers mental let-down from beating Pittsburgh. They put so much energy and passion into this series, it was like they couldn't get up for this series mentally. The situation was ripe for a letdown, and the Flyers fan base was certainly lulled into a false sense of security--"we killed the mighty Pens, so we'll crush the Devils easily." Admittedly, I didn't think a letdown would become a total disintegration like we are seeing though.
The Flyers look confused and tentative, and Laviolette probably does not have some magic elixir up his sleeve. The Devils might put them out of their misery pretty quick.
Notes:
-An up and down night for Giroux. He scored a nice shorthanded goal, allaying my fears that the rumors of his bad groin would prevent him from bursts of speed. After scoring however, he was more interested in barking at the ref than anything else. It was a bad sign, indicating his emotions were getting away from him.
Later, after the officials blew a call on Brodeur for playing the puck outside the trapezoid, Giroux again assailed the officials, then took out his frustration with a dirty check to Zubrus's head. This was pretty much the type of headshot for which I roasted Malkin and Neal. Late, opportunistic headhunting. If it was my NHL, Giroux would be suspended. As it is, given that Giroux didn't make an egregiously illegal hit by leaving his feet or throwing an elbow, has no prior history, and Zubrus wasn't hurt, I suspect all we'll see is a fine.
-Speaking of Brodeur, his special treatment from the refs continues. The interference call on Hartnell was blatantly wrong, as Hartnell was clearly checked into him, and at mild contact Brodeur wildly kicked his legs and threw his arms around. He also dodged a penalty for handling the puck. That's 3 games in a row where Brodeur has drawn a penalty on the Flyers when there simply wasn't much (or anything at all) there. [JVR called for slashing in Game 2 when going for a loose puck, Schenn makes slight skate-to-skate contact and Broduer flops in game 3].
-The Flyers' lines are all mixed up. Couturier played, but barely. This broke up his checking line with Wellwood and Talbot, so Wellwood also barely played. I do support Laviolette's decision to break up the Jagr-Giroux-Hartnell. Whether it's injuries or whatever, their not playing well individually or collectively.
-Regarding Bryzgalov, anyone who tries to pin this debacle on the goaltending is an idiot. The Flyers were dominated in games 2 and 4, but the game was close to the end because of Bryzgalov. I don't like how he threw up his hands after the Devils' 3rd goal last night though, even if it was shockingly bad coverage. For once the Flyers can reflect on their playoff run and don't need to ask themselves how they were sabotaged by goaltending.
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Monthly Update
First, the stats and how they've changed in 2 months since I last did a monthly update.
Goals - 3.31/game (2nd, -1)
Goals against - 2.86/g (22nd, -3)
Faceoffs - 47.8% (27th, +2)
Power play - 20.7% (4th, +8)
Penalty kill - 82.6% (15th, -1)
Shots For - 32.4/g (5th, +3)
Shots Against - 29.0 (8th, -1)
Notes
-The big triumph here is the power play, that has really been clicking lately.. Hartnell has been a big part of that, and the Flyers have been doing a good job with traffic in front getting deflections.
-Giroux and Jagr have slowed down. Jagr has mainly been slowed down by injuries, and Giroux has yet to re-gain his mojo after the concussion. I *hope* it's not because of lingering concussion issues. Giroux is still making plays and getting assists, but his goal scoring is way down. Since the concussion, he only has 2 goals in 17 games, and has gone goalless in 12 games. Before the injury, he had 16 goals in 28 games.
-As far as trade options for defensemen go, I saw something online about how the Caps may be shopping Jeff Schultz. Schultz, is 25, 6'6", in the 2nd year of a $2.75x4 contract, and is a stay at home defensemen. He has mostly been a healthy scratch since Dale Hunter was hired, but is a former first round pick with 346 games under his belt and played ~20 minutes a night last season. I am not aware of any indicator that the Flyers actually have interest in Schultz, but he might be the kind of big, defensive defensemen the team is looking to add. Or maybe the Flyers won't see him as a worth upgrading to from Bourdon, who has been decent.
Goals - 3.31/game (2nd, -1)
Goals against - 2.86/g (22nd, -3)
Faceoffs - 47.8% (27th, +2)
Power play - 20.7% (4th, +8)
Penalty kill - 82.6% (15th, -1)
Shots For - 32.4/g (5th, +3)
Shots Against - 29.0 (8th, -1)
Notes
-The big triumph here is the power play, that has really been clicking lately.. Hartnell has been a big part of that, and the Flyers have been doing a good job with traffic in front getting deflections.
-Giroux and Jagr have slowed down. Jagr has mainly been slowed down by injuries, and Giroux has yet to re-gain his mojo after the concussion. I *hope* it's not because of lingering concussion issues. Giroux is still making plays and getting assists, but his goal scoring is way down. Since the concussion, he only has 2 goals in 17 games, and has gone goalless in 12 games. Before the injury, he had 16 goals in 28 games.
-As far as trade options for defensemen go, I saw something online about how the Caps may be shopping Jeff Schultz. Schultz, is 25, 6'6", in the 2nd year of a $2.75x4 contract, and is a stay at home defensemen. He has mostly been a healthy scratch since Dale Hunter was hired, but is a former first round pick with 346 games under his belt and played ~20 minutes a night last season. I am not aware of any indicator that the Flyers actually have interest in Schultz, but he might be the kind of big, defensive defensemen the team is looking to add. Or maybe the Flyers won't see him as a worth upgrading to from Bourdon, who has been decent.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Midseason Player Reviews
I don't like rating players by grades, and there's no use denying every player faces different expectations and different roles. I'm going to simply assume some degree of subjective expectations and rate players with a stock-rating flavor.
Outperform
-Claude Giroux. No brainer here. Last season he looked like a promising young center, but was arguably the 4th most visible center on the team. With Richards and Carter traded to make room for a goalie, Giroux faced a lot of pressure to be the offensive lynchpin. He has responded with an MVP caliber season.
-Jaromir Jagr. Sticking with Giroux's line, no one was sure how Jagr would perform after three season out of the NHL. 50 points? 60 points? He still couldn't do a point a game, could he? Apparently yes. After a slow start, he found his legs and has looked fantastic, and is a key offensive player for the Flyers. Nagging injuries are the only thing slowing him down now.
-Scott Hartnell. And now to complete the Giroux line! Hartnell got off to a very rocky start, missing preseason time due to medical tests, and his place in the lineup was very much at risk with 2 points in 7 games and Simmonds on the top PP unit. Placing him with Jagr and Giroux has been magic, as every player has looked better since this trio was complete. Hartnell has 35 points in 34 games since then.
-Matt Read. On pace for 25+ goals, and an offensive factor every night. What more could the Flyers want from him?
-Jake Voracek. His pace of ~50 points isn't going to turn many heads, and is line with his career averages, however I think he is playing better than that. Didn't start off great, but he is up on his skates attacking the defense every night. It's not a coincidence that the Flyers go on win streaks when he is playing his best. Early in the season I talked about Jagr replacing Leino's offensive contribution, but it's actually been Voracek carrying the puck, making plays, contributing what the Flyers would've hoped for from Leino.
-Kimmo Timonen. He has played big minutes and piled up the points, and looks to produce at a rate not seen since his best years in Nashville.
-Max Talbot. Has played reliably all over the lineup, and at midseason is already near career highs in goal scoring and points.
-Sean Couturier. I didn't listen to scouts early this year when they nearly unanimously predicted Cooter would make the big team. I looked at the roster and though, nah. Instead, Cooter has simply made it impossible to take him out of the lineup, playing like a veteran.
-Harry Zolneirczyk. Despite being sent down early in the season, he has come back and looked great on the 4th line--energetic with occasional scoring. Thumbs up, though to maintain a role like this in the NHL he will have to have an increased role on the PK.
-Zac Rinaldo. I was pretty skeptical of this wild man coming into the season. Although he seems targeted by officials, he has general kept it under control, potted a goal here or there, and aggressively sought contact on the ice.
-Marc-Andre Bourdon. His ascent to the NHL hasn't really gone like many in the organization may have hoped, but he has played within himself and looked like he belongs in the NHL.
Market Perform
-Danny Briere. A pretty ho-hum regular season for Briere. He's been there for some key goals, but hasn't looked consistently dangerous and is on pace for his lowest point totals for a full season as a Flyer (when healthy). I am giving him somewhat of a pass due to raising his game in the playoffs the last two years, and the expectation that he will do it again.
-Matt Carle. Carle continues to hum along, playing big minutes and getting decent point totals. I still say he has the worst shot on the team though, so there's always that to infuriate Flyers fans when he gets so many chances with skating and awareness on the ice.
-Wayne Simmonds. Simmonds teased Flyers fans early this year and preseason with some offensive skill, however Flyer fans have seen some stone hands since then. Simmonds is always battling out there, but his offense probably will never be more than occasional and streaky.
-Braydon Coburn. Quiet but largely steady from Braydon.
-Sergei Bobrovsky. Bob continues to progress nicely, and currently sports a much better stat line than Bryzgalov. He probably deserves a chance to get some starts and be given a chance to run with it.
-Andreas Lilja. Doing exactly what was expected; old and slow, occasionally physical defensemen.
Underperform
-Brayden Schenn. I don't like putting him here, as when I see him play I see a skilled and intelligent player, and injuries never really gave him a chance. Still, on January 1, there he was with 0 points and -7 in 8 games. Hopefully, the second half will treat him better (and the signs are already good).
-James Van Riemsdyk. Looking at a low 40s point season, and is not visible many nights. This is even when I commented earlier this season that his points line flatters his play. He was supposed to progress more than this by this point.
-Andrej Meszaros. The team's best defensemen last year, he struggled early. His play has improved, but his overall body of work is not what Flyers fans were hoping for.
-Ilya Bryzgalov. If you've read this blog, or even followed the Flyers at all, do I need to say anything? Not playing like the top goalie the Flyers signed him to be. He still can figure it out though.
-Jody Shelley. Yes, he is still on this team.
No Rating
Chris Pronger, Erik Gustafsson
Outperform
-Claude Giroux. No brainer here. Last season he looked like a promising young center, but was arguably the 4th most visible center on the team. With Richards and Carter traded to make room for a goalie, Giroux faced a lot of pressure to be the offensive lynchpin. He has responded with an MVP caliber season.
-Jaromir Jagr. Sticking with Giroux's line, no one was sure how Jagr would perform after three season out of the NHL. 50 points? 60 points? He still couldn't do a point a game, could he? Apparently yes. After a slow start, he found his legs and has looked fantastic, and is a key offensive player for the Flyers. Nagging injuries are the only thing slowing him down now.
-Scott Hartnell. And now to complete the Giroux line! Hartnell got off to a very rocky start, missing preseason time due to medical tests, and his place in the lineup was very much at risk with 2 points in 7 games and Simmonds on the top PP unit. Placing him with Jagr and Giroux has been magic, as every player has looked better since this trio was complete. Hartnell has 35 points in 34 games since then.
-Matt Read. On pace for 25+ goals, and an offensive factor every night. What more could the Flyers want from him?
-Jake Voracek. His pace of ~50 points isn't going to turn many heads, and is line with his career averages, however I think he is playing better than that. Didn't start off great, but he is up on his skates attacking the defense every night. It's not a coincidence that the Flyers go on win streaks when he is playing his best. Early in the season I talked about Jagr replacing Leino's offensive contribution, but it's actually been Voracek carrying the puck, making plays, contributing what the Flyers would've hoped for from Leino.
-Kimmo Timonen. He has played big minutes and piled up the points, and looks to produce at a rate not seen since his best years in Nashville.
-Max Talbot. Has played reliably all over the lineup, and at midseason is already near career highs in goal scoring and points.
-Sean Couturier. I didn't listen to scouts early this year when they nearly unanimously predicted Cooter would make the big team. I looked at the roster and though, nah. Instead, Cooter has simply made it impossible to take him out of the lineup, playing like a veteran.
-Harry Zolneirczyk. Despite being sent down early in the season, he has come back and looked great on the 4th line--energetic with occasional scoring. Thumbs up, though to maintain a role like this in the NHL he will have to have an increased role on the PK.
-Zac Rinaldo. I was pretty skeptical of this wild man coming into the season. Although he seems targeted by officials, he has general kept it under control, potted a goal here or there, and aggressively sought contact on the ice.
-Marc-Andre Bourdon. His ascent to the NHL hasn't really gone like many in the organization may have hoped, but he has played within himself and looked like he belongs in the NHL.
Market Perform
-Danny Briere. A pretty ho-hum regular season for Briere. He's been there for some key goals, but hasn't looked consistently dangerous and is on pace for his lowest point totals for a full season as a Flyer (when healthy). I am giving him somewhat of a pass due to raising his game in the playoffs the last two years, and the expectation that he will do it again.
-Matt Carle. Carle continues to hum along, playing big minutes and getting decent point totals. I still say he has the worst shot on the team though, so there's always that to infuriate Flyers fans when he gets so many chances with skating and awareness on the ice.
-Wayne Simmonds. Simmonds teased Flyers fans early this year and preseason with some offensive skill, however Flyer fans have seen some stone hands since then. Simmonds is always battling out there, but his offense probably will never be more than occasional and streaky.
-Braydon Coburn. Quiet but largely steady from Braydon.
-Sergei Bobrovsky. Bob continues to progress nicely, and currently sports a much better stat line than Bryzgalov. He probably deserves a chance to get some starts and be given a chance to run with it.
-Andreas Lilja. Doing exactly what was expected; old and slow, occasionally physical defensemen.
Underperform
-Brayden Schenn. I don't like putting him here, as when I see him play I see a skilled and intelligent player, and injuries never really gave him a chance. Still, on January 1, there he was with 0 points and -7 in 8 games. Hopefully, the second half will treat him better (and the signs are already good).
-James Van Riemsdyk. Looking at a low 40s point season, and is not visible many nights. This is even when I commented earlier this season that his points line flatters his play. He was supposed to progress more than this by this point.
-Andrej Meszaros. The team's best defensemen last year, he struggled early. His play has improved, but his overall body of work is not what Flyers fans were hoping for.
-Ilya Bryzgalov. If you've read this blog, or even followed the Flyers at all, do I need to say anything? Not playing like the top goalie the Flyers signed him to be. He still can figure it out though.
-Jody Shelley. Yes, he is still on this team.
No Rating
Chris Pronger, Erik Gustafsson
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
One Month Down
October is over, and the Flyers' season is approximately 4 weeks old. Or, as Sean Avery might measure it, one menstrual cycle is complete. Either way, a good time to stop and see where the Flyers are.
Among the themes to which I've already commented;
-The Flyers sit at 6-4-1, and hopefully have righted the ship with a solid win over Carolina. Again, this is a decent enough start for a team with so many new faces.
-Since my post saying don't worry about Bryzgalov, he hit rock bottom against Winnipeg, but played a solid game against Carolina. I think he'll be fine, and that he's a quality goaltender--one month in Philly won't kill him. My own evaluation of him was that he was becoming too passive and slow, even if it's his game to be a passive shot blocker. He needed to be a little more active, particularly on recovering from shots. Goalie coach Reese also said he thought Bryz was distracted, and in terrible news for the local sports media, the Flyers are muzzling his pre-game interactions with the press. All of this will sort itself out, and falls under the general settling in process.
-Since my post saying be worried about Hartnell, Laviolette "promoted" him to the top line with Giroux and Jagr, and it has worked unbelievably. Not just for Hartnell, but for the whole line. Laviolette took some heat for disrupting winning chemistry when Schenn was called, though in my opinion none of the Flyers lines were exactly clicking 5-on-5. Even with Giroux racking up goals, 5-on-5 production from he and Jagr (which is how you should judge how well a line is playing) was very poor. A clear illustration;
-Schenn is injured again. Bummer.
Team Stats
-Voracek is improving, but still not terribly effective. At least he's up on his skates and is getting chances.
-JVR is also improving, but is not looking anything like the player on a tear last spring. His play will have to improve from its current form for him to hit the 30+ goals target I was hoping for.
-I'm eager to see what Gustafsson can do in an extended audition.
-Timonen is looking healthier and stronger than last spring.
-After his brush with a very serious injury, Chris Pronger is still a wiseass.
-Couturier looks to be staying for the duration, though honestly I'm a little concerned about him being parked on the 4th line, getting very few even strength minutes. His long term outlook remains very strong though.
-Rinaldo has made a strong case to hold a roster spot. He won't play many minutes, but the guy is instant energy that appears to spark his teammates.
-Simmonds has some stone hands going, but he is always battling and some goals could come very soon on the PP.
-If Matt Read can keep playing with jump he will be a valuable winger for this team.
Among the themes to which I've already commented;
-The Flyers sit at 6-4-1, and hopefully have righted the ship with a solid win over Carolina. Again, this is a decent enough start for a team with so many new faces.
-Since my post saying don't worry about Bryzgalov, he hit rock bottom against Winnipeg, but played a solid game against Carolina. I think he'll be fine, and that he's a quality goaltender--one month in Philly won't kill him. My own evaluation of him was that he was becoming too passive and slow, even if it's his game to be a passive shot blocker. He needed to be a little more active, particularly on recovering from shots. Goalie coach Reese also said he thought Bryz was distracted, and in terrible news for the local sports media, the Flyers are muzzling his pre-game interactions with the press. All of this will sort itself out, and falls under the general settling in process.
-Since my post saying be worried about Hartnell, Laviolette "promoted" him to the top line with Giroux and Jagr, and it has worked unbelievably. Not just for Hartnell, but for the whole line. Laviolette took some heat for disrupting winning chemistry when Schenn was called, though in my opinion none of the Flyers lines were exactly clicking 5-on-5. Even with Giroux racking up goals, 5-on-5 production from he and Jagr (which is how you should judge how well a line is playing) was very poor. A clear illustration;
5-on-5 stats in 6 games of JVR-Giroux-JagrCompare that to the numbers since Laviolette juggled the lines;
JVR - 1g, 1a, -1
Giroux - 2g, 1a, -1
Jagr - 0g, 0a, even
5-on-5 stats in 5 games of Hartnell-Giroux-JagrNight and day. Either way, Hartnell has reclaimed his role on this team and will stick with Giroux and Jagr for the foreseeable future. Also, so much for Jagr's lack of goals that some people were whispering about....
Hartnell - 3g, 7a, +4
Giroux - 1g, 4a, +2
Jagr - 4g, 2a, +3
-Schenn is injured again. Bummer.
Team Stats
Goals - 3.73/game (2nd in NHL)Other player evaluations;
Goals against - 3.27/g (28th)
Faceoffs - 46.4% (29th)
Power play - 22.2 % (6th)
Penalty kill - 81.5% (18th) (the Flyers have also been shorthanded 34 times, the 2nd most of any team in the league)
Shots For - 32.8/g (6th)
Shots Against - 26.3 (2nd)
-Voracek is improving, but still not terribly effective. At least he's up on his skates and is getting chances.
-JVR is also improving, but is not looking anything like the player on a tear last spring. His play will have to improve from its current form for him to hit the 30+ goals target I was hoping for.
-I'm eager to see what Gustafsson can do in an extended audition.
-Timonen is looking healthier and stronger than last spring.
-After his brush with a very serious injury, Chris Pronger is still a wiseass.
-Couturier looks to be staying for the duration, though honestly I'm a little concerned about him being parked on the 4th line, getting very few even strength minutes. His long term outlook remains very strong though.
-Rinaldo has made a strong case to hold a roster spot. He won't play many minutes, but the guy is instant energy that appears to spark his teammates.
-Simmonds has some stone hands going, but he is always battling and some goals could come very soon on the PP.
-If Matt Read can keep playing with jump he will be a valuable winger for this team.
Friday, October 21, 2011
Despair!
It was going to happen sooner or later. An ugly loss that will allow some Flyers fans to do what they do best; carry on about how the team is a wreck.
In a nutshell, last night the Caps came out with more jump than the Flyers. The Flyers were able to scramble on defense enough to keep the Caps off the board and took the lead. Things looked good as the first period was wrapping up, until Hartnell had a terrible unforced giveaway, and the ensuing shot deflected off Coburn's stick and in. Even worse, with 11 seconds left in the period, Giroux got beat behind the net and Backstrom carried it out unchallenged, getting it over to Ovechkin for a slam dunk.
The Flyers played well in the second period, but couldn't score. The game could've then gone either way in the 3rd, but the Caps scored a fluke goal as a harmless shot again deflected off a defensemen's stick. The Flyers immediately took a lazy penalty, Ovechkin scored on a one-timer (which deflected again), and it was pretty much over.
Things to be worried about after a loss like this:
-The Flyers tendency to give up quick, back-to-back goals, which plagued them last season. The Caps did all of their scoring last night in 70 second and 2.5 minute stretches respectively.
-Unnecessary penalties. High sticks, offensive zone penalties, leaving the Flyers shorthanded for no good reason, and all too often.
-Hartnell on the outs? Hartnell's ice time is way down this year, and he had a rough game last night. With Schenn getting called up, one of Schenn, Hartnell, or Couturier will be playing on the 4th line. I'm okay with "Cooter" down there because he gets so much PK time, but I'd be nervous if I were Hartnell.
-Briere's line not doing anything. There is a noticeable lack of chances being created by Briere's line this year, though last night Read took Voracek's place there and played pretty well on an individual level. No chemistry happening with Briere and his linemates though.
Things not to be worried about;
-Bryzgalov. 5 goals looks ugly, and his stats are declining, but he's given up an inordinate number of deflected goals this year, and I'd be hard pressed to come up with examples of soft goals he's given up. His rebound control has also been very good.
-Schenn's -3 debut. Schenn happened to be on the ice for Hartnell's giveaway, and the backbreaking third goal which was the flukiest one. Schenn looks pretty smooth with the puck, and threw a few nice checks last game.
-Jagr still scoreless. Jagr does look a little fatigued, but he's still playing well along the boards and has 4 points in 6 games.
In a nutshell, last night the Caps came out with more jump than the Flyers. The Flyers were able to scramble on defense enough to keep the Caps off the board and took the lead. Things looked good as the first period was wrapping up, until Hartnell had a terrible unforced giveaway, and the ensuing shot deflected off Coburn's stick and in. Even worse, with 11 seconds left in the period, Giroux got beat behind the net and Backstrom carried it out unchallenged, getting it over to Ovechkin for a slam dunk.
The Flyers played well in the second period, but couldn't score. The game could've then gone either way in the 3rd, but the Caps scored a fluke goal as a harmless shot again deflected off a defensemen's stick. The Flyers immediately took a lazy penalty, Ovechkin scored on a one-timer (which deflected again), and it was pretty much over.
Things to be worried about after a loss like this:
-The Flyers tendency to give up quick, back-to-back goals, which plagued them last season. The Caps did all of their scoring last night in 70 second and 2.5 minute stretches respectively.
-Unnecessary penalties. High sticks, offensive zone penalties, leaving the Flyers shorthanded for no good reason, and all too often.
-Hartnell on the outs? Hartnell's ice time is way down this year, and he had a rough game last night. With Schenn getting called up, one of Schenn, Hartnell, or Couturier will be playing on the 4th line. I'm okay with "Cooter" down there because he gets so much PK time, but I'd be nervous if I were Hartnell.
-Briere's line not doing anything. There is a noticeable lack of chances being created by Briere's line this year, though last night Read took Voracek's place there and played pretty well on an individual level. No chemistry happening with Briere and his linemates though.
Things not to be worried about;
-Bryzgalov. 5 goals looks ugly, and his stats are declining, but he's given up an inordinate number of deflected goals this year, and I'd be hard pressed to come up with examples of soft goals he's given up. His rebound control has also been very good.
-Schenn's -3 debut. Schenn happened to be on the ice for Hartnell's giveaway, and the backbreaking third goal which was the flukiest one. Schenn looks pretty smooth with the puck, and threw a few nice checks last game.
-Jagr still scoreless. Jagr does look a little fatigued, but he's still playing well along the boards and has 4 points in 6 games.
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
A Breath of Fresh Air
The new season is days away, and the feeling around the team is palpably different. The team hierarchy is clear cut. After a few seasons of Mike Richards being the face of the team (aka Captain Mumbles), the leadership burden falls on players who are very comfortable in their own skin; Pronger, Bryzgalov, Timonen and Jagr. All of these players deal with the media and pressure effortlessly, and Pronger and Bryzgalov will be competing for the better quotes all season long.
I think it's hard for Flyers fans not to be excited with how this preseason went. First of all, Jagr and Bobrovsky turned a lot of heads. Apparently Jagr is training fanatically, returning to the rink for late nights skates in a weighted jacket, and his preseason performance is raising expectations. I said previously that I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him hit 60 points, but many are now speculating him to hum along at a point/game pace alongside Giroux.
Also, Wayne Simmonds scoring 4 goals in the preseason has been a nice surprise. I think he has been an under-appreciated acquisition this summer, and that he has the potential to be a fan favorite with his physical initiative. Still, he only scored 30 points last year, so it was unclear how many points the Flyers could expect from him this year, but early indications point him to getting PP time.
The flip side of the coin is that Schenn and Voracek have had anonymous preseasons. For Schenn, that could mean a start in the AHL. While disappointing, this is not the end of the world. Giroux and Spezza, for example, did the same, and things worked out pretty well for them. Starting Schenn in the AHL would save the Flyers a lot of cap space too. Voracek's ice time is assured, but he will drift into Laviolette's doghouse if he doesn't get going. Fingers crossed there.
Overall it's an exciting time for Flyers fans. I think this year's team ceiling is a little lower than last year's squad, which was kicking butt in January, however the chances of a crisis of confidence that afflicted last year's team are also lower. Better goaltending, steadier leadership....etc. I think the biggest problem facing the Flyers is that most of their players are still pretty young (JVR, Giroux, Simmonds, Voracek) or at the end of their careers and are at a great injury risk (Pronger, Timonen, Jagr). A few key injuries could be devastating.
The final roster will be announced tomorrow, so I'm just going to wait and see on that one rather than prognosticate. Maybe I'm getting lazy....
I think it's hard for Flyers fans not to be excited with how this preseason went. First of all, Jagr and Bobrovsky turned a lot of heads. Apparently Jagr is training fanatically, returning to the rink for late nights skates in a weighted jacket, and his preseason performance is raising expectations. I said previously that I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him hit 60 points, but many are now speculating him to hum along at a point/game pace alongside Giroux.
Also, Wayne Simmonds scoring 4 goals in the preseason has been a nice surprise. I think he has been an under-appreciated acquisition this summer, and that he has the potential to be a fan favorite with his physical initiative. Still, he only scored 30 points last year, so it was unclear how many points the Flyers could expect from him this year, but early indications point him to getting PP time.
The flip side of the coin is that Schenn and Voracek have had anonymous preseasons. For Schenn, that could mean a start in the AHL. While disappointing, this is not the end of the world. Giroux and Spezza, for example, did the same, and things worked out pretty well for them. Starting Schenn in the AHL would save the Flyers a lot of cap space too. Voracek's ice time is assured, but he will drift into Laviolette's doghouse if he doesn't get going. Fingers crossed there.
Overall it's an exciting time for Flyers fans. I think this year's team ceiling is a little lower than last year's squad, which was kicking butt in January, however the chances of a crisis of confidence that afflicted last year's team are also lower. Better goaltending, steadier leadership....etc. I think the biggest problem facing the Flyers is that most of their players are still pretty young (JVR, Giroux, Simmonds, Voracek) or at the end of their careers and are at a great injury risk (Pronger, Timonen, Jagr). A few key injuries could be devastating.
The final roster will be announced tomorrow, so I'm just going to wait and see on that one rather than prognosticate. Maybe I'm getting lazy....
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
The Most Interesting Offseason in the World
The free agent frenzy is quieting down now, and you can take stock of most things.
The big point overall is that UFAs this year made a killing. Players were getting 30% more than a comparable player would've gotten 2 years ago. I think it's mostly due the to fact that it was a generally weak free agent group coming in a year where the salary cap increased more than expected. And then you have a team like Florida spending money like a drunken sailor in a whorehouse on decent but unspectacular players simply to get to the cap floor that compounded the perverted market.
For the Flyers, the Extreme Makeover continues. Out with the Canadian golden boys, in with puck possession eastern europeans, a Russian goalie, and a black guy. Despite a bunch of rumors of something bigger like Brad Richards, Stamkos, or a big trade, the Flyers mostly stuck to the expected game plan. Mostly.
The most "predictable" move was adding a 3rd/4th line character guy. The Flyers needed some experience in that area, and the team has commented that they need a "new Laperriere" to provide leadership and character in that role. Max Talbot seems to fit that bill, the only surprise being that he comes from the Penguins.
Speaking of the Penguins, there was that signing of Jagr the other day. Now nearly everyone expected the Flyers to be looking at wingers, maybe Erik Cole or Michael Ryder, but no one was taking about Jagr to the Flyers until the day before free agency. Apparently the Flyers pursuit of him didn't even start until then until Holmgren speculatively sent a text to former flyer Petr Svoboda, who is the agent for Jagr and Voracek.
Jagr will be a very interesting case. He'll turn 40 in midseason and will not be the dominant player of old, but he's remained productive in Russia and is coming off a very strong World Championships performance. It's easy to question whether an aging temperamental Euro star is a right fit on the Flyers, but Jagr seems more dedicated to training and staying in shape than ever before. Also he apparently did his homework and chose the Flyers (which were not the richest offer) after talking to the coaches and players. There's lots of reasons to be hopeful that Jagr will have a productive season, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him hit 60 points this season.
Lastly, there is the signing of Andreas Lilja. A cheap, depth defensemen for the 6/7 role.
Other Signings:
-Handzus to SJ for $2.5x2 years. Early in the day it was reported that the Flyers had signed Handzus, to which I was receptive. He would be a big centermen to play on the third line and would be a decent fit at the right price. Seems to me SJ got a good deal here for an aging though still valuable centermen.
-Upshall to Florida for $3.5x4. Wow, the first of many big overpayments on the day. This signing was the perfect marriage of a player who's not quite as good as he thinks he is (career highs; 22 goals and 34 points) with a team looking to overpay to get to the cap floor.
-Leino to Buffalo for $4.5x6. This is an outright shocker. I don't blame the Flyers for holding steady at a $3m deal, though I suspected someone else would come along and offer more. Just not that much more. Calendar year 2010 Leino, who scored 21 points in 19 playoff games and had a very strong first half of the ensuing regular season, was a player worthy of a deal approaching $4m a season. Calendar year 2011 Leino, not so much. While Leino is younger and better defensively than Jagr (though he's still not great defensively himself), what are the odds the Flyers get more points and goals from Jagr at $3.3m this year than Buffalo gets from Leino at $4.5?
-Cole to Montreal for $4.5x4. This is the guy who I wanted on the Flyers, and while that's not an outrageous price, it was still too high for the Flyers to entertain.
-Connolly to Leafs for $4.75x2. Connolly is a talented player who plays at near a point/game pace when healthy, but when is he ever healthy? He's only played 70 games once since the lockout, and here are his point totals the last 5 seasons; 1, 40, 47, 65, 42. This is a $5 million player now? At least it's only a 2 year deal.
-Vokoun to the Caps for $1.5x1. An outright steal for the Caps, as he fell into their laps when he didn't find a big money deal on July 1 and looked for a contender to join. Of course the Flyers could not have entered free agency and expected to get Vokoun for anywhere near this amount, but it still hurts to watch a competitor get such a quality goalie for so little salary, even if it was just luck.
Up Next for the Flyers:
-The Flyers don't have much cap space left. They likely have $3m or so in cap space left after signing Simmonds and making expected cuts, but they still need to carry a 19th or 20th skater and leave a little cap buffer.
-There are rumors the Flyers are sniffing around Jason Arnott. He would be of similar interest to the Flyers for the same reason as Handzus; a big third line center at this point of his career. He might want too much money though.
-The Stamkos rumors never go away with the Flyers. The latest is Schenn, Bobrovsky and 1st rounder for Stamkos. If there was no salary cap and this was purely about hockey, I definitely do this deal. Given the cap restraints however, the Flyers will likely have to dump more salary to fit Stamkos in (Hartnell or Carle maybe), and would not be in great shape next offseason allocating raises to JVR and Coburn, so it's ultimately a tough call. This is assuming of course the rumors are accurate and Stamkos doesn't simply resign with the Lightning.
The big point overall is that UFAs this year made a killing. Players were getting 30% more than a comparable player would've gotten 2 years ago. I think it's mostly due the to fact that it was a generally weak free agent group coming in a year where the salary cap increased more than expected. And then you have a team like Florida spending money like a drunken sailor in a whorehouse on decent but unspectacular players simply to get to the cap floor that compounded the perverted market.
For the Flyers, the Extreme Makeover continues. Out with the Canadian golden boys, in with puck possession eastern europeans, a Russian goalie, and a black guy. Despite a bunch of rumors of something bigger like Brad Richards, Stamkos, or a big trade, the Flyers mostly stuck to the expected game plan. Mostly.
The most "predictable" move was adding a 3rd/4th line character guy. The Flyers needed some experience in that area, and the team has commented that they need a "new Laperriere" to provide leadership and character in that role. Max Talbot seems to fit that bill, the only surprise being that he comes from the Penguins.
Speaking of the Penguins, there was that signing of Jagr the other day. Now nearly everyone expected the Flyers to be looking at wingers, maybe Erik Cole or Michael Ryder, but no one was taking about Jagr to the Flyers until the day before free agency. Apparently the Flyers pursuit of him didn't even start until then until Holmgren speculatively sent a text to former flyer Petr Svoboda, who is the agent for Jagr and Voracek.
Jagr will be a very interesting case. He'll turn 40 in midseason and will not be the dominant player of old, but he's remained productive in Russia and is coming off a very strong World Championships performance. It's easy to question whether an aging temperamental Euro star is a right fit on the Flyers, but Jagr seems more dedicated to training and staying in shape than ever before. Also he apparently did his homework and chose the Flyers (which were not the richest offer) after talking to the coaches and players. There's lots of reasons to be hopeful that Jagr will have a productive season, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him hit 60 points this season.
Lastly, there is the signing of Andreas Lilja. A cheap, depth defensemen for the 6/7 role.
Other Signings:
-Handzus to SJ for $2.5x2 years. Early in the day it was reported that the Flyers had signed Handzus, to which I was receptive. He would be a big centermen to play on the third line and would be a decent fit at the right price. Seems to me SJ got a good deal here for an aging though still valuable centermen.
-Upshall to Florida for $3.5x4. Wow, the first of many big overpayments on the day. This signing was the perfect marriage of a player who's not quite as good as he thinks he is (career highs; 22 goals and 34 points) with a team looking to overpay to get to the cap floor.
-Leino to Buffalo for $4.5x6. This is an outright shocker. I don't blame the Flyers for holding steady at a $3m deal, though I suspected someone else would come along and offer more. Just not that much more. Calendar year 2010 Leino, who scored 21 points in 19 playoff games and had a very strong first half of the ensuing regular season, was a player worthy of a deal approaching $4m a season. Calendar year 2011 Leino, not so much. While Leino is younger and better defensively than Jagr (though he's still not great defensively himself), what are the odds the Flyers get more points and goals from Jagr at $3.3m this year than Buffalo gets from Leino at $4.5?
-Cole to Montreal for $4.5x4. This is the guy who I wanted on the Flyers, and while that's not an outrageous price, it was still too high for the Flyers to entertain.
-Connolly to Leafs for $4.75x2. Connolly is a talented player who plays at near a point/game pace when healthy, but when is he ever healthy? He's only played 70 games once since the lockout, and here are his point totals the last 5 seasons; 1, 40, 47, 65, 42. This is a $5 million player now? At least it's only a 2 year deal.
-Vokoun to the Caps for $1.5x1. An outright steal for the Caps, as he fell into their laps when he didn't find a big money deal on July 1 and looked for a contender to join. Of course the Flyers could not have entered free agency and expected to get Vokoun for anywhere near this amount, but it still hurts to watch a competitor get such a quality goalie for so little salary, even if it was just luck.
Up Next for the Flyers:
-The Flyers don't have much cap space left. They likely have $3m or so in cap space left after signing Simmonds and making expected cuts, but they still need to carry a 19th or 20th skater and leave a little cap buffer.
-There are rumors the Flyers are sniffing around Jason Arnott. He would be of similar interest to the Flyers for the same reason as Handzus; a big third line center at this point of his career. He might want too much money though.
-The Stamkos rumors never go away with the Flyers. The latest is Schenn, Bobrovsky and 1st rounder for Stamkos. If there was no salary cap and this was purely about hockey, I definitely do this deal. Given the cap restraints however, the Flyers will likely have to dump more salary to fit Stamkos in (Hartnell or Carle maybe), and would not be in great shape next offseason allocating raises to JVR and Coburn, so it's ultimately a tough call. This is assuming of course the rumors are accurate and Stamkos doesn't simply resign with the Lightning.
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