A Few Wins, and a Few Thoughts

Since my last post, the Flyers have notched two confident wins, beating the Devils and Hurricanes 4-1 and 5-1 respectively.  I take a few things from those wins.

-Secondary scoring.  It was a very Ed Snider thing to do what he did 2 weeks ago; calling out individuals for not performing in the middle of a season.  As the godfather of the Flyers, he does what he wants, even if other owners would never dare. 

Most of the credit towards the Flyers improved recent play comes down to contributions from secondary lines, and specifically Simmonds, Couturier and Read.  Is it a coincidence that those were the three guys Snider named?  Since those comments; Simmonds has 5 goals in 5 games (after a stretch of 3 goals in 20 games), Couturier is on 6 game points streak, and Read got his first goal and points in a few weeks.

I do not think comments from the owner were major catalysts for these guys, and furthermore today Berube revealed that Read has been playing through a foot injury this season.  Let's just chalk it up to Snider stating the obvious, and talented players eventually coming around.  Whatever it was, the Flyers really need the secondary scoring to continue.

-Better than the Bottom-Dwellers.  Both of the Flyers' big wins came against bottom teams in the Eastern Conference.  As I remarked in my last post, say what you will about this team, but they are better than a basement team.  The Flyers will have to start beating good teams to make the playoffs too, but I expect to see the Flyers lift themselves up and away in the standings from the truly bad NHL teams.

-Penalty Kill Still Sucks.  The good news is that the Flyers haven't allowed a 5v5 goal in 3 games.  The bad news is that the penalty kill continues to limp along, allowing 4 goals in the last 3 games.  This must change.  In my opinion, the awful PK is really the only significant difference between this year's lousy team and last year's playoff quality team, but more on that in my next post.

Is This the New Normal?

Flyers wrapped up a 4 game road trip, 1-1-2.  It is an improvement from the terrible stretch of play discussed in my last post, as they were competitive in every game.  Is this the best we can ask of this team?  To be merely be competitive?

Sequentially, the Flyers played a pretty good game in SJ but came away empty handed due to a shocking last minute goal against.  They followed that up with a fun game against Anaheim, including a clutch last second goal and the seemingly inevitable shootout loss.  The Flyers finally got a win versus LA, where they've had a lot of success the last few years, by having a good first 30 minutes, then hanging on for dear life the last 30.  The trip then ended with a bit of a thud, getting outplayed most of the game by Columbus (one of the worst teams in the East).

It's nice to see Schenn producing, and guys like Umberger are showing modest improvement, but the team feels like a mess.  There's some musical chairs happening on defense, and Lecavalier has been stuck in the press box.  It's an untenable state of affairs, and there's little reason to be expect a significant turnaround.

The Flyers are swimming with the bottom-dwellers in the standings.  If you break down their performance, they deserve to be there.

5v5: 22nd
Shot differential: 22nd
PP: 4th
PK: 29th
Save Percentage: 18th

Right now the Flyers are mediocre team with a crippling penalty kill.

I am also hearing some fans say they aren't surprised by this.  I will say that I AM, to some extent.  The bottom line is the Flyers were one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference from November 1 onwards last season (3rd overall I think, only behind Boston and Pittsburgh).  Now I certainly wouldn't have predicted them 3rd this year, especially without Timonen, but I thought they had a very good chance at a bottom half playoff spot.

That playoff spot is rapidly slipping away, leading many fans to talk of tanking to get highly anticipated prospects McDavid or Eichel.  Personally, I am not a fan of this plan, and there's not much reason to do so.  Here are the lottery odds this year.

It is true that finishing dead last would guarantee the Flyers a top 2 pick and one of McDavid or Eichel.  Beyond that, each slot on that chart only increases your chance at the #1 pick by a very small amount.  I think the bottom line is that the Flyers are a significantly better team than Edmonton, Buffalo and Carolina, and the Flyers lottery odds will be in the middle of the pack for non-playoff teams; i.e. not good.

Instead of chasing lottery balls, the Flyers can transition into making moves that won't pay off for another season or two.  Even then the Flyers don't have any obvious playoff rental material, but they can start shipping out defensemen as the defense will have to be entirely rebuilt anyway.

As sad as it is to say, it may be time for Flyers fans to switch into player development watching mode.  Giroux and Voracek are undoubtedly top notch players, but that's not enough.  Personally, I'll probably be spending much of this season focusing on the development of Schenn, Couturier and Laughton.

Flyers Searching for the Bottom

Any way you look at it, it's awful.  The Flyers are 1-7-1 in their last 9.  Only laughing stocks Buffalo, Carolina, and Edmonton, and injury-ravaged Columbus have worse records.  The penalty kill is dead last.  They have been dominated in their last 2 road division games against the Rangers and Islanders.  The Flyers are in the bottom handful of teams in shot differential, 5v5 Corsi percentage, and team save percentage.  The bottom line, is they are getting whipped.

Everyone knows the defense is not talented enough, but the problems have become much bigger.  For one thing, their team defensive coverage is terrible.  It seems opponents find countless passing seams to exploit and are quicker to every loose puck, and that's when someone is not completely unmarked in the slot.  One could look at the Detroit loss and conclude maybe the rebounds and bounces simply didn't go in favor of the Flyers, but when it happens every night, it's not luck.

Second, the offense is completely reliant on the Giroux line.  Giroux is generally doing his thing, Schenn is contributing right now, and Voracek continues to be spectacular.  Every other line has disappeared.  Lecavalier can't find a role.  Umberger has been total deadweight.  Couturier handles the puck like a hot potato and immediately looks to get rid of it.  Simmonds has faded after his promising start.  Then end result is that Giroux and Voracek have been on the ice for every single Flyers goal in the last 4 games.

Bad team defense and completely one dimensional scoring is a recipe for a last place team.  The Flyers had a similarly bad start last year amongst the coaching change, but as I've already written, there's no excuse for such a start this year.  Furthermore, there is no clear path for the Flyers to crawl out of this mess.  I expect things to naturally rebound a little, but given the depth of the problems, hope for a playoff spot appears increasingly distant.

Trade Speculation: Oilers and Flyers

The Oilers are terrible.  They and Buffalo are the worst teams in the league.  Most recently, the Oilers were crushed 7-1 at home by the Blackhawks and were booed and heckled off the ice.  As you would expect, fans are frustrated and the team must be looking at all alternatives of management changes or making a trade.

The latest buzz is that the Oilers want a center, and are dangling David Perron.  In the past, the Oilers were looking for defense, and they may or may not have been close to trading for Coburn.  One version of the story is that Flyers asked for Eberle for Coburn, but then Oilers wanted to include Simmonds in the deal.

Whatever happened then, is there a deal out there now?  Perron might be the kind of player Hextall is looking to add.  The Flyers sorely lack skill wingers.  Now 26, Perron is a skilled and energetic winger.  I think there were high hopes for him in St. Louis, but his time there was derailed with concussions.  He's probably not a defensive zone stalwart, and his cap hit is ~$3.8 million this year and next until he is a free agent.

Perron had a solid first season in Edmonton last year with 57 points in 78 games.  This year, he has 10 in 21, with one of the worst +/- on the team, even though his Corsi rating is one of the best on the team.  Advanced stats also show he hardly gets any defensive zone starts, which may contribute to that high Corsi rating and speak to their (lack of) defensive trust in him.

While some have floated that the Oilers are looking for a #1 center, there's no way Perron is going to fetch that.  Would they be interested in Schenn or Couturier?  I think they'd listen.

Schenn and Couturier are both a few years younger than Perron, and their career potential is still uncertain.  Over the last year or so, Couturier has seemed to be more valued than Schenn.  This season, Schenn is outperforming Couturier. 

In my opinion, Couturier's development has been pretty disappointing, showing little offensive initiative and participating in an awful, awful penalty kill.  Every time he gets the puck, he almost immediately stops skating, holds it, and looks to dish it off.  Playing like that, it's no wonder he hasn't tallied a point in 15 out of 20 games this season.  Then again, he was the ice time leader for the Flyers last night.

Either way, Hextall is not going to trade either young player based on how many points they have in the last month.  The Flyers look like they will be in a for a battle just to reach the playoffs this year, and Hextall does not appear inclined to seek short term solutions.  Perron being older and closer to UFA status probably kills a swap for a young Flyers center.

The only remaining wrinkle is if this could rekindle Coburn talks.  Coburn is a defensive anchor, though he's not a game-changer.  He plays a lot of minutes for the Flyers, and he could do the same in Edmonton for several more seasons.  He would be a good addition for Edmonton, I think.

My thought is, that Flyers defense is lousy, and with or without Coburn it's going to remain generally mediocre this season.  Hextall's prescription for fixing the defense is to wait for young guys to develop, and by the time that happens Coburn will need a new contract.  Trading Coburn and giving Perron 1.5 seasons in Philadelphia to earn a spot on the team and a new contract might be an interesting way to develop the team with an eye to the future when it would be primed for serious playoff runs.  Young reinforcements are coming to the Flyers defense, while there are not many on the way to put on the wings.

Save the Date

Apparently June 23rd is a big day for the Flyers.  In 2011, Carter and Richards were shipped out on June 23rd.  In 2012, JVR was traded on June 23rd.  This year, the Flyers conducted some other noteworthy business.

Hartnell for Umberger
In a move basically no one saw coming, the Flyers traded Scott Hartnell for RJ Umberger and a 4th round pick.  Everyone knew Umberger wanted out from Columbus, but Hartnell leaving Philly is a surprise.  The purposes of the trade are not obvious, but there are a few things to take away.

One, this appears to be Flyers re-tailoring their rosters for Hextall-Berube hockey.  Most would say Hartnell is the better player, but Hartnell is a clumsy player.  Stylistically, Umberger is a better skater and much better in possession.  While not a young speedster, he is closer to Berube's "play faster-think faster" mantra.

Two, the Flyers only get minor, delayed cap relief.  Hextall said he just let it be known he was looking for cap relief, and this trade just kind of came up.  Truthfully, Umberger's and Hartnell's cap hits are nearly identical ($4.750m v $4.6m), although Umberger's contract has two fewer years left on it.  Hextall is looking ahead to two seasons from now when Voracek will be a UFA, and Couturier and Schenn will be RFAs.  Umberger will still have one more left on his contract at that point, however.

The last point is that Umberger's has been declining.  His first three years in Columbus were reliably productive, but his last three seasons have been poor.  He played 74 games last season, albeit through a few tough injuries that may have slowed him down.  He and Hartnell are the same age, and it will be interested to see where each of this guys are physically in 2 years.

Umberger will be a versatile forward for the Flyers who may help a bit in puck possession, but he does not improve the team in any significant way.  Hartnell's departure also opens a hole on the top PP unit.

Schenn signed
On the same day, the Flyers also did something far more predictable.  Completing Hextall's self described #1 offseason priority, he signed Brayden Schenn.

It's a relatively short, cheap, "bridge contract" than many players his age receive.  It provides the team with an affordable young talent, while leaving the player the opportunity to earn a significant raise with his next contract (ask PK Subban about that one).

With Hartnell gone, Schenn might see time on left wing of the top line.  Either way, it's time for Schenn to show everyone what's he got.  At one time he projected as a prospective number 1 NHL center, but now there is some question if he will even be a good #2.  I can't say I see visual evidence that he is on the cusp of a breakout, but the development of a young player isn't linear either.

He plays a different style than Couturier, but the players will always be compared as young centers and potential future pillars of the team, acquired at the same day (June 23!).  I think it's safe to say Schenn's stock in the organization has dropped below Couturier at this time, but now he's got two years raise his stock back up.

Couturier Back on Track

Forgive me, but I started a new job 6 weeks ago, so this blog has been down on my priority list.   Given this big group of time between posts, I will not even bother to touch on all the things that have happened with the Flyers since.

The one thing I will talk about here is Sean Couturier's improved play, and that the Cooter-Read-Downie line has been the Flyers only good line the last few weeks.

Go back to November 19, the Flyers were still in their winning streak, and Cooter got what was simply a lucky goal.  Afterwards, Berube made the requisite comment about how that goal should increase his confidence and maybe start him on a roll.  *eyeroll*

The thing is, it has done exactly that.  As the Flyers saw their winning streak end, and resumed their awful offensive form that we saw in October, the even strength offense completely vanished.  Look at the numbers from the go-to offensive guys:
-Giroux, 3 ES points, +3
-Voracek, 1 ES point, -1
-Lecavalier, 2 ES points, -1
-Hartnell, 3 ES points, +1
-Schenn, 2 ES points, -1

Now look at the Cooter line since November 19:
Couturier, 8 ES points, +10
Downie, 6 ES points, +7
Read, 7 ES points, +8

During the Flyers current cold streak, the Cooter line really has indeed been the only line performing most nights.  Having only one line playing well is bad news by itself, but it is really positive for the big picture to see this line playing so well.

For one, Couturier showing some offensive ability is massive.  I have been pretty disappointed with his development since his rookie year, and I was beginning to resign myself to adjusting my career expectations for him downwards from my previously lofty expectations.

Two, Downie has become a very productive player for this team.  Coincidentally, my last post was about how I liked the Downie trade, and while his niche has not been on the Giroux line, the trade looks very good today.  (I'm not sure why so many Flyers fans had a reflexive negative reaction about trading away a 4th liner, anyway).

It Begins

I guess it's time to get off my ass and write something here, being that the season starts tonight.  Woohoo!

I'm still firmly in wait and see mode, but I will say that I see this year's Flyers team as a borderline playoff team.  I'd put the chances of them making the playoffs at a little below 50%.  This partly has to do with a horrific preseason, but moreso because I'm reading it together with last season.  Hardcore Mostly Flyers readers will recall this post of mine, and my opinions really haven't changed since this time.

I am very worried about the Flyers ability to score at 5-on-5.  The Flyers just don't attack with efficiency and purpose.  Whether it's coaching, motivation, or talent, the Flyers often look apathetic and aimless.

There are tangible reasons I can say to myself why it should be better this year.  Lecavalier has 61 even strength points over the last 2 years, while Briere only 42 during that time.  Hartnell is in the best shape of his life after being injured and unprepared last season.  Brayden Schenn (who shall hereafter be referred to as "Bo", mainly because I want to have the brothers Bo and Luke on the Flyers roster) and Cooter are a year older.

The defense, however, did not get much of a makeover, and is curiously still bloated with 8 defensemen on the roster.  I've been waiting for a trade on that count for months.  Something's got to give there.  Streit is a PP specialist, but he's been on the second PP unit thus far because the old first unit was so effective last year, and he may not get much more than 3rd pair even strength minutes.  This is a not a sea change for a defense that appeared ill-equipped last season.

While the goalie tandem of Mason and Emery should provide the most uncertainty (in an entertaining fashion, for better or worse), the million dollar question is Laviolette's leash.  Can he survive a slow start?  I won't beat a dead horse with my opinion on the matter, but I think Laviolette has more to prove than the players  That's never a good thing.

Okay, now I have all my fretting out of the way.  Let a fun season begin!

Do the Flyers Regret Signing Streit?

The question of the day is, with Lecavalier in the fold, do the Flyers regret their early move to add Streit?

The Flyers have said they did not expect Lecavalier to be bought out, and signing him was a move of opportunity.  Surely when the Flyers made the move to acquire Streit they had an offseason plan laid out that did not include freely picking up a prominent center for $4.5m.  However, had the Flyers known they could add Lecavalier, I suspect they would not have added Streit.

Clearly, the Flyers are trying to move a defensemen now due to lack of cap space.  Coburn could fetch a decent return, but I'm not too keen on the idea of subtracting a top-4 defensemen.  Meszaros, coming off a poor injury-riddled season and a UFA to-be, has little to nil trade value.  It feels like the Flyers are scrambling a bit, basically because they are.

I believe that, with Lecavalier, the Flyers are more willing to move Schenn or Couturier.  Those two had a disappointing season last year as the Flyers second line struggled, but the Flyers had no choice but to rely on those guys on the 2nd and 3rd line and hope for improvement from them.  Therefore, the option of trading them was particularly unappealing for the Flyers.  Now the second line has received a substantial shot in the arm, so while that doesn't degrade the trade value of Schenn or Cooter, they are not as critical to the upcoming season.

Accounting for Lecavalier before making any moves on defense, the Flyers could've made a move for a younger, better all-around defensemen than Streit.  Something like Schenn+Mesz+Read/picks for Yandle?  Or even something better for Pietrangelo?  In such a case, there would be no more talk of trading Coburn, and a second pair of Yandle/Coburn looks much more formidable than a potential pair of Streit/Grossmann.

Of course the Flyers could still make such a trade, but they are awfully tight to the cap to be paying Streit $5.25m to get 3rd pair minutes.

Jumping out in front of the market for an early move is a go-to play for Holmgren (Hartnell/Timonen, Bryzgalov, even re-signing Leighton), but by not letting events unfold and fully capitalizing on opportunities as they come, the Flyers make a different kind of risk.

Never a Dull Moment

I've said it before, but being a Flyers fan is just fun sometimes.  Whenever anyone of note becomes available, the Flyers are sniffing around.  Maybe always chasing the big move, the short term fix, has hampered the Flyers ability to win a cup.

Regardless of whether this is true, the Flyers are consistently one of the best teams in the NHL, and made deep cup runs in 95, 97, 2000, 2004 and 2010.  On top of that, there's always something to talk about, and rarely a forgettable season.

Tonight's signing of Lecavalier is a show-stopper and continues the tradition.

Now first, it's important to realize Lecavalier's days as a superstar are behind him.  Since his days as the #1 pick in 98, when then-TB owner naively labelled him the Michael Jordan of hockey, there's always been a superstar aura around him.  Truthfully, he only performed at that level for a brief period of time, and TB signed him up to contract with a cap hit of $7.7m/season under that spell.  Now 33, he hasn't hit 30 goals in 5 seasons.

With all the wonderful weirdness of this offseason and the compliance buyouts, the Flyers can look at him purely as a second line center.  While adding a big name forward seemed low on the priority list for the Flyers, a big issue with last season's team that no one talks about was terrible secondary scoring (meanwhile, the goaltending that everyone talks about was actually fine).  The team put a heavy burden on Couturier and Schenn to develop quickly into scoring roles, and it didn't happen last season.  This move does NOT mean they are giving up on either of them, but it does relieve that burden.  Additionally, the Flyers wanted to get bigger up front, and Lecavalier is 6'4".

Lecavalier's contract is reported to be at $4.5x5.  This is decent cap hit.  It's not without risks, going to his 38th birthday for a player who will decline over the life of deal, but consider the comparables of contending teams' second line centers.  Boston is paying Krejci $5.25m for his 33 points last year.  LA is paying Carter $5.27m for his 33 points.  Pittsburgh is paying Crosby and Malkin each ~$9m.  Lecavalier's 32 points at $4.25m looks pretty good.

Nor does this signing put the Flyers in an onerous cap position.  With some simple moves, the Flyers current cap picture looks like this:

The Flyers could easily sign a platoon goalie and put that lineup out there.

More likely some more tweaking will be done to this lineup and a defensemen will go.  The Flyers could either move Meszaros in what will basically be a salary dump, or they could try for a significant return for Coburn (and even now have the freedom throw in Schenn or Couturier now that Lecavalier is on board and Laughton is coming up).

Presuming the simpler transaction of dumping Meszaros, and running with some rumors about potential signings, the Flyers opening day lineup could very well look like this:

That lineup is clearly better than last year's team, and quite honestly better than I thought the Flyers could put together this offseason while being comfortably under the cap (although the defense is still underwhelming).  Either way, next season would be a lot of fun.

Rumor Commentary

After what has been a pretty depressing season, about which I saw little to post, it's fun to have things to wildly speculate upon!  No team does offseason crazy like the Flyers.  Maybe it hurts them in the long run, but they always put a competitive team on the ice and the moments of madness always keep it exciting for the fans.

Anyway, there's been a bunch of rumors popping up this week, and here's just a few comments.

#1 - Bryzgalov's agent says Holmgren told him Bryz won't be bought out this offseason.  Holmgren says that's BS.

I've already written a little about a Bryzgalov buyout.  I think the question is when, not if.  I previously laid out the case for doing it next summer.  Since then, I've warmed to certain scenarios for a buyout this summer.  Either way, Holmgren told Jeff Carter's agent he wouldn't be traded, and then traded him a week later.  Assuming Holmgren even gave Bryz's agent any assurances, I wouldn't put much stock in them.  I would ignore this item and say a Bryz buyout this summer is very much on the table.

#2 - The Flyers are a front runner to trade for Jonathan Bernier; possible packages include Matt Read, or Couturier+11th pick.

Bernier is a 24 year old goalie.  He was the first goalie taken in the 2006 draft, at 11 overall.  Thus far, he's been stuck behind Quick in LA.  Relatively small for a modern NHL goalie, he's very quick.  He's excelled at the AHL level, has a .912% in 62 NHL appearances, and many scouts think he's ready to try for a #1 NHL job.

He's also a RFA this year, and the Kings are tight against the cap  As a result, they are very vulnerable to an offer sheet and settling for meek draft pick compensation for losing him.  Now the Kings are aggressively trying to trade him in the next few weeks before that happens.

In a general sense, I kind of like the idea of the Flyers going into next season with Bernier and Mason, two goalies with unquestionable talent, and letting the best man win.  Neither is a sure thing after all.  The Flyers must, however, draw the line on how much they are willing to pay for him.

First, Bernier wants a chance to start.  I don't think there's many NHL teams that will trade for him and simply give him the #1 job, so an open competition with Mason might be the best he gets.  I don't think he'd be unhappy with a trade to Philly.

Second, let's throw out the package reported by Carchidi; Cooter and the 11th pick.  That is a terrible deal.

Third, the Read deal (or something like it) is reasonable.  Read is a quality player, and can play across a team's top 9.  Most likely, he's a 2/3 line wing in the NHL.  What makes him tradeable is, that while he still seems inexperienced and up-and-coming, he is 27 years old.  He's also a UFA after this season, and will be seeking a substantial raise from his current $900k deal.  I'm not sure the Flyers can accommodate that.  The problem is, the Flyers are already weak at forward, and there is no clear substitute to take his place.

Either way, the Flyers should not get sucked into a bidding war for Bernier.  If the deal is there, take it and buy out Bryz.  If not, walking away is just fine.

#3 - The Flyer are talking trade for Bobby Ryan, at a cost of Coburn and 11 pick

After some thought, I don't think this is a very good deal as presented.  It's tempting for Flyers fans to part with Coburn, as he is coming off a poor season that ended in an injury, and he carries a significant cap hit of $4.5.  What we have to remember is that he plays big minutes for the Flyers, and can flourish in the right situation.

With his size and skating, it is tempting to ask Coburn to do a lot, and I think that's where it went wrong for him this season.  He's not Matt Carle, and his slapshot looks good, but is horrendously inaccurate.  I could see him playing well with Streit though, in a simplified role.  Let Streit attack and Coburn be the anchor of the pair.  We might get to see the Coburn that looked so promising playing with Timonen a few years ago.

Furthermore, this is supposed to be a very good draft.  It seems a slam dunk for the Flyers to take a good young defensemen with the 11 pick, which is unusually high for the Flyers, but Flyers fans shouldn't count on that either given their track record of taking the best player available (which they usually deem to be a forward).  Still, the reality is that with or without Ryan, the Flyers are not cup contenders next season.  Yes, they need help at forward, but this is not the way to do it.

Draft Do-Over?

Regardless of where the Flyers end up picking in this draft, there's always the question of drafting to need.  Most accepted is the theory of drafting the best player available, regardless of position.  It would be pretty stupid to draft to fill a particular need of an NHL roster, simply because most draft picks take years to mature into NHL contributors.  Who knows what your specific needs will be in 5 years?  Whether or not there may be some logic in drafting for an organizational need, however, after identifying lack of depth in a certain area, isn't necessarily so stupid.

The Flyers in fact may have been much better served doing so.

Think back 2 years ago, when the Flyers obtained the Blue Jackets' #8 overall pick, a rare high pick for the Flyers.  At the time, I wrote that the Flyers would presumably look for a defensemen there.  As the draft unfolded, the chips appeared to fall perfectly for the Flyers.  As expected, Adam Larsson was the #1 defensemen available and was quickly snatched up.  After the surprise choice of Scheifele by the Jets though, #2 defensemen Dougie Hamilton was, somewhat surprisingly, still on the board when the Flyers picked.  Easy choice, right?

Not so fast, as Sean Couturier was unexpectedly still available as well.  His draft stock had fallen somewhat, as several months prior he was considered a potential #1 overall.  I think when all is said and done, the Flyers simply thought Couturier was a better player so they drafted him, despite the organization being deep at center with no high-end defensive prospects to speak of.

Two years later, things haven't changed much.  The Flyers are still well-stocked at center for now and the future with Giroux, Briere, Schenn, Couturier, Laughton and Cousins, but they are absolutely screaming for high-end (preferably puck-moving) defensive prospects.  This is not knock on Couturier at all, as I have said repeatedly I think he is the Flyers best prospect since Lindros.  He's had some very tough stretches this season, but I think he will bounce back and likely be a second-line center than Schenn, honestly (better defensively, bigger, and similar offensive potential based on what I'm seeing).

The only thing that hurts is what they could've had in Hamilton.  Since the draft, Hamilton won Canadien Junior defensemen of the year last year, and this year has become a key member of the cup contending Bruins.  He's getting PP time, taking shifts with Chara, has 15 points in 40 games, and overall playing 16-18 minutes a night.  He's also 6'5", has a right-handed shot, and clearly projects as a top pairing guy in the long run.  In other words, EXACTLY what the Flyers organization needs.

Because of the situation described above, the Flyer may trade Couturier this offseason.  He's their most valuable asset, and it may make sense to slot Schenn in at #2 center and Laughton at #3 (assuming he keeps impressing), leaving Couturier with no clear spot.  Oh, and the Flyers now have more of a need than ever for a long term puck-moving solution on defense.  If the Flyers want to address this problem, Couturier is the best tool to do so.  Or they could've just drafted differently 2 years ago and not have to play the fickle trade market....

State of the Flyers

As I see it, there are two burning questions for the Flyers at the moment.  One, should Laviolette be fired?  Two, should Couturier be traded?  The question of if the Flyers should trade to bolster this year's playoff run is no longer a reasonable question; the answer is an emphatic no.

Before getting to those burning questions, let's review the state of the Flyers through a few illustrative statistics.

-The Flyers power play is 6th overall.  After a terrible start to the season, the Flyers power play is now terrific, and operates near 30% at home.  Count this as one problem solved.

-Similarly, the penalty kill has rebounded to 11th in the league, and is a quality unit.  The problem is, the Flyers have been shorthanded 114 times, worst in the league.

-The Flyers collapse when they fall behind.  When the opponent scores first, the Flyers only win 20% of the time, 25th in the league.  When trailing after 2 periods, the Flyers are 1-10 (9.1%), 27th in the league.  Most shockingly, the Flyers are 0-10 when trailing after the first period!

-Unfortunately, I cannot find stats for when teams are tied after 2 periods.  I suspect the Flyers would be at the bottom of the league in points earned in such situations.

-The Flyers are a bad 5-on-5 team, with a goal differential of .8.  That is also 25th in the league. More concerning than absolute goal difference however, is that the Flyers are 22nd in 5-on-5 goal scoring.  An uptempo attacking team should be scoring goals, win or lose.

-I would not have guessed it, but the Flyers do a pretty good job when leading after 2 periods, winning 91.7% of the time.  This is 6th in the league.

-The Flyers actually block a lot of shots; 4th in the league.

-The Flyers are a solid 8-4-1 at home, but are 4-11-0 on the road.

So with that in mind, I will follow with a post on Laviolette this weekend.

Reality Setting In

So I've been saying it for over a month, but this is not a good hockey team.  Apparently it took many fans and media this long to come to this conclusion, but now panic and hand-wringing abounds.

The Flyers' "rivalry" week against top eastern teams has been a decisive failure.  The Flyers enjoyed first period leads of 2-1 and 4-1 respectively against the Rangers and Penguins, but then were outscored 7-0 in the remainders of those games.  Against the Bruins, the Flyers never got off the mark and took a meek 3-0 loss.

Many things are going wrong.  The players appear to have given up on Laviolette.  Bryzgalov has not been sharp.  Couturier's confidence is extremely low.  Overall frustration grows.  While I will look at some of these issues in more detail in upcoming posts, suffice it to say things are looking quite bleak.

If there's any question as to how this season will progress, consider these cold hard numbers.

--The last few years, it has taken approximately 1.12 points per game to earn a playoff spot in the east.  In this shortened 48 game season, that equals 53/54 points.

--The Flyers currently have 23 points in 26 games.  This equals .88 points per game, which puts the Flyers 12th out 15 teams in the East.

--To reach 53 points, the Flyers must earn 30 points in their final 22 games, or 1.36 points per game.  This is equivalent to Pittsburgh's current record, 3rd best in the East.

Does anyone think this team is capable of performing as the third best team in the east the remainder of the season?  I didn't think so.  This team is not making the playoffs.

Out of Sorts

0-3 last night, and 0-3 on the season.  Another pretty ugly loss last night.  The Flyers aren't getting killed or run out of the building in these losses, but they're sloppy and at times it feels futile.  Now some have turned and said "but the Flyers started 0-3 in the last lockout season, and ultimately went to the conference finals!"  The reality is that that Flyers team started 3-7-1, and after back to back 3-0 losses to Ottawa and Florida, two of the worst teams in the league at the time, Clarke traded Mark Recchi.  I doubt Holmgren has any similar tricks up his sleeve to acquire a #1 defensemen along with a player who would score 50 goals three years in a row.

What is the problem?  There are many;

-No chemistry amongst the forwards, and the chances they do get, there's no finish.  No one is shooting with confidence or showing any creativity, other than Giroux.

-Young players who played during the lockout look out of sorts.  Couturier has really struggled, and Read has been pretty invisible.  Schenn has some good moments, but not enough.

-The defense looks haggard.  Grossmann is really laboring, struggling with forecheckers, the puck, and notably getting outskated.  Timonen isn't doing much.  Schenn has been average, Mesz has been pretty good, and Coburn can only do so much himself.

-General disorganization.  Failed coverage on faceoffs has led to goals.  Failed coverage down low has led to goals.  Special teams have been terrible.  The Flyers have also been burned by bad changes.  All this in 3 games.

-Bad bounces.  It's hard to say how much is teams making their own luck, but the first period against the Devils was probably their best this season, yet they trailed 2-0 after it.  Against Buffalo, there were 3 questionable calls in the crease directly leading to goals or potential goals, and all three went in Buffalo's favor.

-Bad first periods.  The first 15 minutes against the Penguins were terrible, leading to a 2-0 hole.  Another slow start in the Buffalo game creating a 1-0 deficit, and another 2-0 hole last night.  Outscored 5-0 in the first period so far this season.


I'm not sure what the remedy is here, as Laviolette did the line shuffling prior to the New Jersey game  Maybe throw in Leighton and see if the team responds?  I think the most important thing right now is to focus on special teams, where they've been outscored 7-1 in just three games.  That is inexcusable.

Subban??

Okay, so another trade rumor post, mainly because they're fun to speculate about.  The Flyers had a lousy opening weekend, and generally look discombobulated, but I'll refrain from comment until they get another game or two in.

As for P.K. Subban, there may be an opportunity here.  Bob McKenzie reports that the sides are still nowhere close on the holdout RFA.  The Habs apparently are offering a shorter term at $2.75m.  No wonder talks are going nowhere.  Undoubtedly, Subban is looking for something in the ballpark of what other highly-rated young RFA defensemen got; Myers - 7x$5.5, Carlson - 6x$3.96, Hedman - 5x$4, Staal - 5x$3.975.  He'll demand at least 4 years and $4 million.

As for Subban's game, I think he's a very talented player.  I remember the first time I saw him play his rookie year against the Flyers, I didn't know who he was, and I thought to myself, "woah, who is that guy for Montreal!?"  Fast, aggressive, skilled, physical; a very exciting player.  He's been pretty productive in his short NHL career, but he has rubbed some the wrong way with disrespectful behavior, including a notable spat with Mike Richards.  With guys like this, you take the good with the bad.  If you believe that his attitude is an issue, that just lessens what you pay him (or for him), but shouldn't exclude him from consideration.

Even with Montreal getting nowhere on contract talks, he will be very difficult to pry away.  Quite frankly, the Flyers have very few assets to trade, and Montreal probably would insist on getting Schenn or Couturier.   The Flyers current roster needs Schenn, and I personally think Couturier is the Flyers best prospect since Lindros.  Similar to their pursuit of Weber, I'd continue to draw the line at including Schenn or Cooter in a trade.  After you remove those two guys, you're looking at an ad hoc package of high draft picks and prospects.  Would Montreal have any interest in Laughton of Gostisbehere?  They are the only 2 Flyers prospects of note, and even then they're not exactly hot properties.

The Flyers usually sniff around any time a talented player becomes available, and I would certainly see if an opportunistic deal could be made.  I think it's all a long shot, as Montreal doesn't really want to trade him and his contract demands are uncertain, but I think his abilities are exciting enough to earn a look.  He'd be a real shot in the arm to the Flyers defense corps, no doubt.

And We're Back...

Tomorrow, it's finally back to hockey.  It should be a pretty fun home opener against the Pens.  The Pens of course are coming off their first round loss to the Flyers last year, in which their contempt for the Flyers caused them to completely lose their nerve.  30 goals against in 6 games was the result.  Remarkably, this will be the Pens 8th straight game against the Flyers, with no other opponents in between.

But enough about the Pens.  The Flyers won't have any time to get in game shape, as its trial by fire with an incredibly busy schedule, kicking off with 5 games in 8 days.  Fortunately, there is a lot of consistency with last year's roster, and most player's on the roster have been playing in Europe or the minors.  However, with Briere out and Meszaros questionable, the exact lineup is still a work in progress.  It appears the Flyers will start the season with the following:

The big questions on my mind;

-That lineup is scary young down the middle.  At 25, Giroux is the old man.  Cooter, Laughton and Wellwood only have 136 career NHL games between the 3 of them!!  Things will look a little different once Briere comes back (with his 921 games played), but in some ways, he is the least reliable of all of them.

-Will Scott Laughton stick around?  He was hardly a prized draft pick, but he looks to be one of the few players from this year's draft to play in the NHL this year.  After he plays in 5 games, the Flyers must send him back to the juniors, or lose a year on his entry-level contract.  Due the condensed schedule, that is only 8 days.

-How much can be expected from Cooter and Schenner?  They put up solid numbers on a dreadful Phantoms team in the AHL.  That should be expected from top prospects, and basically they were the entire offense for the team.  Cooter is still only 19 however.  I think it's time for Schenn to live up to his billing from the last few years.  I recall that I thought he was the Flyers's best player in game 1 versus Pitt last year, until Asham ran him and slowed him down.

-Who will be the 6th defensemen?  Right now it's newly signed Kurtis Foster, who looked to be having a promising career until it was derailed by injuries over the last few seasons.  I wouldn't mind seeing the big man wind-up on the PP a few times though.  A total x-factor is the possibility of signing Redden.  He's been parked in the AHL the last 2 years due to his enormous contract, but the Rangers have now bought him out and he's free to sign anywhere, likely on a one year deal.  He's 35 now, and I'm not sure how much he has left, but I presume he could fit in on several teams' bottom pair.  I don't know how real the Flyers interest in him may be, but they sniff around everything and there's not much to lose with a one-year deal.  Either way we'll find out today.  If he does sign, he'll battle it out with Foster for the #6 spot, and Gervais will be the 8th defensemen.

-Can Simmonds match the pace of his career high in goals?  Can Hartnell match the pace of his career high in goals?  Can Read avoid the sophomore slump?  I'll say yes, probably slightly off, and yes.

-Is Bryzgalov focused and ready?  It's not unusual for big ticket signings to struggle in their first season in a new town.  No doubt, Bryz bungled it in many ways.  Still, I think he can turn it around and be a top goalie again.  He didn't impress as a third wheel in the KHL during the lockout, and it seems he was never really focused there honestly.  It won't all be smooth sailing, but I think he'll have a solid season.  If not, I'm not sure what the Flyers will do.  Lure Tim Thomas out of his sabbatical?

-Will Laviolette tighten things up defensively?  I wrote about this last year, and I was hardly the only one to point it out.  This year, it appears that Snider expects the team to tighten up on defense, and help Bryz more.  I don't know if they're going to do that, but I think it would be a good idea.


The Flyers are saddled in the toughest division and hockey.  The Rangers and Pens are probably the two biggest favorites in the East, and the Devils are coming off a trip to the finals.  Expectations for the Flyers won't be as high, and maybe that's a good thing.  Either way, it'll be interesting...

Flyers Offer Weber HUMONGOUS Deal

It is days like today that I treasure being a Flyers fan.  There's never a boring day, and nothing is out of the question.  For my money no team is more fun to follow despite no cup for 35 years, but that's probably a question for another day/blog.

As for the matter at hand, the Flyers have offered Shea Weber a 14 year, ~$110m contract.  This is the biggest contract in NHL history for a defensemen, and computes to a cap hit of ~$7.8 million.  Nashville will now have 7 days to match, or alternatively work out a trade with the Flyers.  If Nashville matches, all is said and done and Weber is guaranteed to be in Nashville next year.  If Nashville declines, Nashville will receive 4 first round picks from the Flyers.

With those hard facts out of the way, the real intrigue is how this plays out.  Upon some reflection, I believe this was ultimately the strongest play the Flyers could make to land Weber.

Weber has been something of a white whale for Flyers fans this offseason---a dominating defensemen who can comfortably fill the shoes of Chris Pronger.  I have previously speculated that the Flyers were not in the best position to land Weber, because Nashville will pull out all the stops to sign their franchise player, and the  Flyers have already traded away two key trading chips in JVR and Bobrovsky.  I have been among those believing "don't offer-sheet Weber because Nashville will match anything," but this was the best option available to the Flyers at the moment.  Because of the Flyers lack of other assets, they would not fare well in open trade bidding process, in my opinion.

By signing Weber to this offer sheet, the Flyers have shut out all other teams from the Weber hunt.  If Nashville matches, they can't trade him for one year, and he will likely be in Nashville for several years.  The Flyers now have exclusivity in trade dialogues with Nashville regarding Weber.  It also has to happen within the next 7 days, so the Flyers have accelerated the timeline.

Of course the simplest course of action is merely for Nashville to match, and then there's nothing to talk about.  All things being equal, I'm sure Nashville was prepared to offer Weber a long-term deal with a cap hit of ~$8m.  What gives Flyers fans hope here is their deal reportedly calls for $26m in the first year alone.  Can Nashville swallow that?  Mind you that Nashville's entire franchise is only worth $163m, and they only have $40m committed to the entire roster next year.  Nashville is required to spend $14m on SOMEBODY this offseason to get to the cap floor at $54m, but the way this deal is structured, their actual, IRL payroll this season would be at least $72m.  Whether or not they can handle $26m to Weber next season (and $56m over the next 3 years total) is basically a business decision.

To keep the conversation going, let's assume they can't, and earnestly talk trade with the Flyers.  Per the RFA offer sheet rules, the trade value is pegged at 4 first round picks.  This should be acceptable to the Flyers, considering they traded essentially 3 first round picks and a 3rd for Pronger a few years ago.  Now Pronger is one of the best defensemen of his generation, but he was about to turn 35, and his days as a Norris candidate were clearly behind him.  Weber is 26, entering his prime, and has been the Norris runner-up the last 2 seasons.

Nashville, however, will probably want something other than picks to show for the sudden departure of their franchise player.  What do the Flyers have to offer?  I would start with Voracek and Meszaros.  Mesz can play 20+ minutes a night for Nashville, and is likely the defensemen the Flyers would soonest trade with their sudden logjam of defensemen.  Voracek I like as a complimentary top 6 winger, though he's probably a 60-70 point player going forward.  Also, he is still not signed anyway.

Even assuming Nashville will take those two, there needs to be more.  First round picks are a good sweetener here.  The Flyers recent first round selection, Scott Laughton, could also be included.  The Flyers turned some heads picking this kid higher than most expected him to go, but he left a lot of observers impressed at the Flyers recently-concluded prospect camp.

Lastly, there is the possibility of trading Schenn and Couturier.  I really hate to think about this.  For me, Cooter is the best prospect the Flyers have had since Lindros.  His game is so complete, it's amazing, and it would really pain me to trade him for anyone.  Schenn is also a very promising player, who could break out big time this year.  Previously I would've said 'maybe' to trading Schenn for (and only for) Weber, but now Jagr and JVR are gone, and Luke Schenn is in.  This makes Schenn less likely to be traded away now.

I will stop here, rather than ramble on endlessly.  Overall, I think this maneuver gave the Flyers the best chance at landing Weber, but it's far from guaranteed Nashville lets him get away.  If I had to guess I feel like Nashville finds a way to keep him, but all bets are off.  The takeaway, however, is that by getting this offer sheet signed, the Flyers have promoted themselves from longshots on landing Weber, to having a very good shot at him as well as blocking potential rivals (mainly the Rangers) from acquiring him.

IF the Flyers were to trade away Voracek, Mesz, and picks/prospects, this is what Flyers fans are looking at:

It's nice getting that franchise defensemen, but for all the goals the Flyers scored last year, that forward group is THIN.  They really have no highly skilled winger to speak of, as Jagr, JVR and Voracek were ALL of their skill wingers last season.  At least there is still enough cap space to add a decent forward or two.

Season Review

All playoff exits feel disappointing.  Through the ups and downs, fans always convince themselves that their team can win any series.  The Flyers flame-out was sudden, but in the long view, it makes a little more sense.

At no point this season did I think the Flyers were really primed for a serious cup run.  They were too young up front, having traded away their core forwards.  Then things started going pretty well, but Pronger went down.  Without Pronger, I thought a long playoff run was precluded.

The Flyers defensive and goaltending struggles reinforced that perception, until March shutouts made me begin to think I could be wrong.  The defense showed hope, and they could score whenever they needed to.  Eventually however, the gas tank ran dry and ingrained problems caught up to them.

It was a memorable and exciting season, and I could not label this team as underachievers.  That's pretty much all you can ask for as a fan.

PLAYER REVIEWS

Forwards:
-Giroux.  The burden fell to him to step up with Carter and Richards gone, and he responded with an MVP caliber season that Richards or Carter never produced.

-Briere.  A very poor regular season, largely saved by 8 playoff goals.  His overall game never really fired on all cylinders though, even in the playoffs.

-Voracek.  His 49 points is not all that impressive, but he was a valuable player for the Flyers, and I certainly didn't see anything like conditioning or effort issues that his old CBJ coach criticized him for on the way out.  He may never break 25 goals or 65 points, but I could see him being a winger on a quality top line.

-Hartnell.  A quiet playoffs shouldn't dilute a career year, and I think he was playing hurt anyway.  Consistently energetic, physical, and showed a finishing touch I didn't think he had.  All this after a pre-season lost to health concerns and a terrible start.

-Jagr.  54 points in 73 games, veteran leadership, and the self-proclaimed "most enjoyable year" of his career.  That qualifies as a success.  Jagr did have some nagging groin issues, and his energy level fluctuated throughout the year, so it remains to be seen if he will be back.

-Schenn.  18 points in 54 games is an unimpressive line, but he improved as the season wore on, and I'd go so far as to say he was the Flyers' best player in game 1 of the Pittsburgh series.  I expect  him to take the next step in his career next year.

-Read.  He turned out to be one of the best rookies in the league.  24 goals, played everywhere on the front line, and in all situations.  Pretty much ideal.

-Simmonds.  Almost doubled his career high in goals, largely due to 11 PP goals.  He looks to be a streaky scorer going forward, as he battles and puts himself in good positions but doesn't have very soft hands, his physical initiative will make him a fan favorite.

-Talbot.  Gave the Flyers everything they could hope for.  A lunchpail player and team guy, he went from 8 goals last season with Pittsburgh to 19 this year, and he and Giroux were lethal shorthanded in the playoffs.

-Couturier.  Surpassed all expectations this season, with 13 goals and logged big minutes in the playoffs.  Remarkable for an 18 year old, I could not identify any clear deficiencies in his game.  What a draft day steal, he could be a key player for the Flyers for a long time.

-Wellwood.  Nothing spectacular, but a young, speedy player that should be an asset for bottom lines and depth next year.

-Rinaldo.  Did all that could be asked of him.  Not a high skill guy, he successfully brought a lot of energy and spark to the Flyers.  He will have to continue to work on his discipline, though in his defense, he is clearly targeted by the officials and is on the short end of a lot of marginal calls.

-JVR.  I think JVR had a very disappointing season.  Yes, he had injuries, and his point production was decent before all the injuries.  Still, I wrote that his early stat line flattered his play even before all the injuries, and there's no escaping the reality of the 11g, 13a, 43gp for a player who was supposed to score 30+ goals this year.  He was very good in game 1 against NJ, but did little else in that series.

-Shelley.  Yes, he is still on this team.

Defense:
-Timonen.  Another year of wear and tear on Timonen's body, he still was able to be the Flyers top defensemen this year.  Injuries severely limited him in the playoffs.

-Meszaros.  Was inconsistent all year, never finding the form he had most of last season.  Then his season was cut short by an injury.  Maybe next year will be a bounce back season.

-Coburn.  Unremarkable regular season, but logged huge minutes in the playoffs.

-Grossmann.  The strong, defense-first, shot-blocking defenseman the team needed.  He has bad knees though, so let's hope they hold up.

-Carle.  The team's de facto number 1 defensemen this year, covering a lot of territory and eating minutes.  A very good chance that his time as a Flyers is over, however.

-Kubina.  He could not provide the reliable veteran presence the team was looking for---too old and slow, and picked up some injuries too.  Little chance of him returning.

-Pronger.  His season never really started, and his career may be over.  It's a shame his time with the Flyers was so short-lived.

-Gustafsson.  He really made some nice strides this season, though he could struggle at times.  Skilled and smart, but undersized.  It will be interesting to see what he can do next year in extended time.

-Bourdon.  Another pleasant surprise, as his career seemed to have stalled in the minors.  Looks like he might have an NHL future yet.

-Lilja.  Seldom used in the regular season, played decently in the playoffs.  Too old and slow to play a significant role.

Goalies:
-Bryzgalov.  Things did not go as planned, though he was amazing in March.  Too inconsistent and gaffe prone, but on and off the ice.  Seemingly has some growing up to do, though a full season in Philly under his belt will help.  Expectations will remain high with his 9 year contract.  I am optimistic.

-Bobrovsky.   Started the season strong, but on the whole did not take the next step in his career this year.  Now heading into the last year of his contract with the Flyers.

Devils Game 4 Review

Well, it was fun while it lasted.  The Flyers may not be officially eliminated, but it would take a miracle.  3-1 comebacks are quite rare, and the Devils dominated game 2 and 4.  It's very hard to envision the Flyers mounting any comeback of consequence.  Maybe I'll give them a 1-in-3 chance of winning game 5, mainly because I have tickets to the game and I don't want to feel like I wasted my money.

The Devils have completely swarmed the Flyers.  Game 1 started off this way, but everyone wrote it off due the Devils being sharp and the Flyers waking up from the week-long layoff.  Instead, that trend has accelerated.

I feel like there's a "chicken and the egg" scenario at play.  The Devils forecheck has overwhelmed the Flyers, and now they look confused and are being completely outskated.  Which came first?  The overwhelming forecheck making the Flyers look slow, or the Flyers simply didn't have jump which allowed the Devils to forecheck so effectively?

I think it's probably the tactics.  The Flyers forwards try to leave the zone so quickly, as they have all year, but the Devils have successfully pressured the Flyers defensemen.  Without the time or ability to find the forwards, the defensemen keep playing the puck to empty space, and the Devils get there first.

At the same time, I don't discount the Flyers mental let-down from beating Pittsburgh.  They put so much energy and passion into this series, it was like they couldn't get up for this series mentally.  The situation was ripe for a letdown, and the Flyers fan base was certainly lulled into a false sense of security--"we killed the mighty Pens, so we'll crush the Devils easily."  Admittedly, I didn't think a letdown would become a total disintegration like we are seeing though.

The Flyers look confused and tentative, and Laviolette probably does not have some magic elixir up his sleeve.  The Devils might put them out of their misery pretty quick.


Notes:
-An up and down night for Giroux. He scored a nice shorthanded goal, allaying my fears that the rumors of his bad groin would prevent him from bursts of speed.  After scoring however, he was more interested in barking at the ref than anything else.  It was a bad sign, indicating his emotions were getting away from him.

Later, after the officials blew a call on Brodeur for playing the puck outside the trapezoid, Giroux again assailed the officials, then took out his frustration with a dirty check to Zubrus's head.  This was pretty much the type of headshot for which I roasted Malkin and Neal.  Late, opportunistic headhunting.  If it was my NHL, Giroux would be suspended.  As it is, given that Giroux didn't make an egregiously illegal hit by leaving his feet or throwing an elbow, has no prior history, and Zubrus wasn't hurt, I suspect all we'll see is a fine.

-Speaking of Brodeur, his special treatment from the refs continues.  The interference call on Hartnell was blatantly wrong, as Hartnell was clearly checked into him, and at mild contact Brodeur wildly kicked his legs and threw his arms around.  He also dodged a penalty for handling the puck.  That's 3 games in a row where Brodeur has drawn a penalty on the Flyers when there simply wasn't much (or anything at all) there.  [JVR called for slashing in Game 2 when going for a loose puck, Schenn makes slight skate-to-skate contact and Broduer flops in game 3].

-The Flyers' lines are all mixed up.  Couturier played, but barely.  This broke up his checking line with Wellwood and Talbot, so Wellwood also barely played.  I do support Laviolette's decision to break up the Jagr-Giroux-Hartnell.  Whether it's injuries or whatever, their not playing well individually or collectively.

-Regarding Bryzgalov, anyone who tries to pin this debacle on the goaltending is an idiot.  The Flyers were dominated in games 2 and 4, but the game was close to the end because of Bryzgalov.  I don't like how he threw up his hands after the Devils' 3rd goal last night though, even if it was shockingly bad coverage.  For once the Flyers can reflect on their playoff run and don't need to ask themselves how they were sabotaged by goaltending.

Penguins Game 3 Review

"[The Flyers] seem to bring out the worst in me."  

   -Sidney Crosby, 4/2/2012

Turns out that was a bit of an understatement.  Another game, another early Penguins lead, and another collapse by the Penguins.  With each game, the Penguins mental capitulation gets more severe, and today they completely lost their sh*t.

I was a little nervous going into this game, for two reasons.  One, the Flyers were terrible in day games this season, with even worse first periods than usual.  Second, I said after game one that the Pens were being distracted by trying to hit too much and punish the Flyers physically, and I thought being on the road they might tone it down and played more poised hockey.  Neither of those occurred.

The Pens got an early gift goal from Bryzgalov, but then on a PP (for what appeared to be a phantom high sticking call), Giroux made a good play shorthanded, and Fleury put the puck in his own net trying to cover a loose puck.  It was all downhill from there.

As the game wore on, the Penguins became a total embarrassment.  Asham's high crosscheck to Schenn (and punch to the back of the head while Schenn is defenseless and face down on the ice) after Schenn made a perfectly legal check was a disgrace.  Things got worse, as another melee was caused when Crosby was determined to cause trouble, slashing Bryzgalov after he covered the puck, prodding Voracek and hassling Timonen until Giroux finally stepped in and went with him.  Letang beat up Timonen (whom I've never seen fight) then petulantly tried to shoosh the crowd.

Apparently that wasn't enough, as Neal threw 2 dirty hits in the space of a minute after the game was out of reach.  He launched himself at Couturier well after the puck was gone, and quite frankly it would've been an illegal charge even if Cooter still had the puck.  As it was, it was an indefensible hit.  Then he stayed on the ice and hit Giroux in the head with another late hit.  At the ensuing stoppage Crosby was grabbing Hartnell (apparently to keep him away from Neal), and when Hartnell engaged Crosby, Adams starting punching him in the back of the head.  Once the two squared to fight and grappled, Adams starting pulling Hartnell's hair.  What is this?  A lunch time scrap between middle school girls?  Ridiculous.

The NHL would be wise to suspend both Asham and Neal for this nonsense.  For one, their actions merit suspension in any scenario.  Second, the outcome of the series is all but settled, and the NHL should reel it in rather than invite more cheapshots or score-settling in an inconsequential game.

The Penguins should be embarrassed enough by allowing 20 goals in three games to their hated rival, in a series in which they were favored.  I guess that wasn't enough, and they've turned themselves into a farce.  This series was there for the taking for them, with 3-0 and 2-0 leads in the first two games.  The Pens were unable to control their passion and quite frankly lost their cool and their minds trying to prove something, and they psyched themselves out of the series.  Crosby was definitely right with the quote above.

Notes:
-I hope Couturier, Giroux and Schenn are okay after absorbing cheapshots.  Giroux appeared woozy and stumbled after being hit by Neal.

-It shouldn't be lost in the shuffle that Bryzgalov let in 2 terrible goals again today.  He's looking leaky and his 5-hole has been gigantic.  This series is a goalie's nightmare, but this will have to tighten up against the likes of the Rangers and Bruins.

-With 20 goals, the Flyers have scored several more goals than any other series has featured COMBINED between the two teams.