People are pretty irate about this week's Shanabans, and I think it reflects a pretty simple disconnect in the NHL's "supplementary discipline" system.
First let me start by saying I think this year's regime is a big improvement from last season. The NHL wheel-of-justice was unpredictable and opaque last season. Under Shanahan this year, that has been greatly improved.
This year the NHL has been doling out justice under a pretty clear test. There are several factors that dictate a decision on whether a player should be suspended, and for how long:
1) Was the action per se illegal? Was it a charge, elbow, etc...
2) Does the victim of the play bear any responsibility? Did he make a last minute move that the checker did not anticipate, worsening the risk on the play?
3) Is the aggressor a repeat offender?
4) Did the victim suffer an injury?
[5) Was either player a "star"? This is more of an unspoken factor.]
Most of these factors are good. What is really riling people up is the 4th factor--resulting injury. There are A LOT of fans that think it shouldn't be a factor at all (myself included). Even worse, the NHL seems to put quite a bit of weight on this factor when determining suspension length. As a result, on plays that seemed to lack intent but result in an injury, the NHL hands down significant ban, but on plays that looked ridiculously dirty but resulted in no injury, the punishment is light or non-existent.
The best solutions are the simplest. Therefore, to improve the system, I say the NHL should merely eliminate or greatly reduce the weight placed on the 4th factor, and a new factor in the test, malicious intent.
Malicious intent is what fans are getting caught-up on in reviewing plays. The natural reaction of fans is to say "that was so dirty, just a blatant attempt to injure." It's perverse that fans should, on the one hand, feel relief that their player didn't get hurt, but must resign themselves to fact that the culprit on the other team will be getting off light for the same reason.
I suspect the NHL has resisted using intent in the past because it is inherently subjective. No player is going to admit after the fact that he was simply looking to hurt somebody. That should not prevent the NHL from judging intent. Forgive me for the lawyer-speak, but that is my trade by day, but there are several indicia of intent that the NHL can refer to to judge intent.
Indicia of intent would be things like relation to any valid hockey purpose, history between the players/teams, actions preceding the play, and time and score of game.
Take some recent examples. Hagelin gets three games because he gets his elbow up on Alfedsson in a tight game, causing injury to one Ottawa's stars. Under the above test, a 3 game suspension is not unreasonable. However, decreasing emphasis on the injury to Alfredsson and weighing Hagelin's intent, you get a different result. Hagelin appears to be making a hockey play, but he illegally got his elbows up. He has to answer for that, but malicious intent seems to be absent based on the circumstances. Now we're talking a 1-game suspension.
On the other hand, you have James Neal. After the game and series is seemingly out of reach, Neal throws a blatantly illegal check on Couturier, which is both interference for being late, and a charge for launching himself to hit Couturier high. On the ensuing shift, he stalks Giroux and hits him high as well, another illegal check. Neal was not penalized, and it appears no injuries were picked up. Neal also scored 40 goals this season and scored 2 nice goals in the same game. Under the old test, lots of factors are in Neal's favor. Weighing intent however, his hit on Couturier had no hockey purpose whatsoever, and the fact that he makes another illegal and dangerous check to Giroux just moments later is powerful evidence of intent. We're waiting for Neal's supplementary discipline ruling today, but it could be anything. Under my regime, we're talking at least 3 games for his undeniable intent to throw dirty hits.
Judging intent is difficult, but the NHL has to step up. As the NHL legislates on-the-ice justice out of the game, they are placing upon itself the responsibility to implement an effective system of justice. Based on the dirty hits thus far in the playoffs, their current system is lacking. It's okay for the NHL to go through growing pains in the process, but they have to keep moving and evolve the system. In the old days of street justice, players would make a snap judgment about intent, and immediately do something about it. There's no sense in denying or minimizing the factor of intent, and if the NHL is already implicitly weighing intent, they sure fooled me. I think you'd create a system that more effectively polices the players and leaves a lot of fans happier.
Opinions on NHL topics of the moment, but mostly on the Flyers.
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
Sunday, April 15, 2012
Penguins Game 3 Review
"[The Flyers] seem to bring out the worst in me."
-Sidney Crosby, 4/2/2012
I was a little nervous going into this game, for two reasons. One, the Flyers were terrible in day games this season, with even worse first periods than usual. Second, I said after game one that the Pens were being distracted by trying to hit too much and punish the Flyers physically, and I thought being on the road they might tone it down and played more poised hockey. Neither of those occurred.
The Pens got an early gift goal from Bryzgalov, but then on a PP (for what appeared to be a phantom high sticking call), Giroux made a good play shorthanded, and Fleury put the puck in his own net trying to cover a loose puck. It was all downhill from there.
As the game wore on, the Penguins became a total embarrassment. Asham's high crosscheck to Schenn (and punch to the back of the head while Schenn is defenseless and face down on the ice) after Schenn made a perfectly legal check was a disgrace. Things got worse, as another melee was caused when Crosby was determined to cause trouble, slashing Bryzgalov after he covered the puck, prodding Voracek and hassling Timonen until Giroux finally stepped in and went with him. Letang beat up Timonen (whom I've never seen fight) then petulantly tried to shoosh the crowd.
Apparently that wasn't enough, as Neal threw 2 dirty hits in the space of a minute after the game was out of reach. He launched himself at Couturier well after the puck was gone, and quite frankly it would've been an illegal charge even if Cooter still had the puck. As it was, it was an indefensible hit. Then he stayed on the ice and hit Giroux in the head with another late hit. At the ensuing stoppage Crosby was grabbing Hartnell (apparently to keep him away from Neal), and when Hartnell engaged Crosby, Adams starting punching him in the back of the head. Once the two squared to fight and grappled, Adams starting pulling Hartnell's hair. What is this? A lunch time scrap between middle school girls? Ridiculous.
The NHL would be wise to suspend both Asham and Neal for this nonsense. For one, their actions merit suspension in any scenario. Second, the outcome of the series is all but settled, and the NHL should reel it in rather than invite more cheapshots or score-settling in an inconsequential game.
The Penguins should be embarrassed enough by allowing 20 goals in three games to their hated rival, in a series in which they were favored. I guess that wasn't enough, and they've turned themselves into a farce. This series was there for the taking for them, with 3-0 and 2-0 leads in the first two games. The Pens were unable to control their passion and quite frankly lost their cool and their minds trying to prove something, and they psyched themselves out of the series. Crosby was definitely right with the quote above.
Notes:
-I hope Couturier, Giroux and Schenn are okay after absorbing cheapshots. Giroux appeared woozy and stumbled after being hit by Neal.
-It shouldn't be lost in the shuffle that Bryzgalov let in 2 terrible goals again today. He's looking leaky and his 5-hole has been gigantic. This series is a goalie's nightmare, but this will have to tighten up against the likes of the Rangers and Bruins.
-With 20 goals, the Flyers have scored several more goals than any other series has featured COMBINED between the two teams.
Saturday, April 14, 2012
Penguins Game 2 Review
Numb.
That is pretty much I feel. I had to check the score again this morning to make sure all that stuff really happened last night. That game had so many amazing, "momentum changing" plays that it was just surreal. The Bryzgalov save on Letang followed by Flyers SHG, the Pens scoring another goal in the final minute of the first, Couturier scoring with 2.8 secs left, Bryzgalov giving up a bad goal to start the third and Cooter singlehandedly getting it right back, Jagr getting the game winner, topped off by 2 hat tricks. Ridiculous.
Nothing in this series would surprise me anymore, so I don't want to presumptuous about what's going to happen next. What is clear though, is that the Penguins are utterly incapable of holding a lead against the Flyers. This is a carry-over from the regular season. I also said the first goal wouldn't matter much in this series given the offense capabilities and defensive carelessness of both of these teams, but I sure thought multiple goal leads would matter. Not so much. It is hard for me to imagine the Penguins winning 4 of 5 games when no lead is safe.
Notes:
-Did I say something about Giroux being invisible in game 1? People probably noticed his hat trick and three assists last night. It felt like November again with Giroux doing it all.
-As good as Giroux was, Cooter was nearly as good. Matched up against the presumptive MVP of the season, Cooter smoked him. It's not hyperbole to talk about his future franchise center potential. Of all the pieces moving in the Richards and Carter deals last summer, Cooter may be the best player of them all. There is nothing missing from his game. Skating, passing, a quick accurate shot, size he knows how to use, and off-the-charts awareness.
-Stats:
-Cooter was the second teenager in NHL history to score a hat trick, with the other coming in 1945.
-Cooter and Giroux teamed up as first pair to get a hat trick in the same playoff game since 1990.
-The Flyers trailed 2-0 for the 9th time in their last 14 games.
-Not a great game from Bryz, though he did make a few big stops which is really all you ask for in a game like that. Let's just enjoy...
-On the same play, what they don't show on that NBC broadcast is one of the worst dives I have even seen a hockey player make. Kris Letang brings soccer-style "play-acting" to the NHL, as Matt Read bumps him in the arm and Letang throws his head back, screams in "pain", and goes down like a sack of bricks. Lost in the shuffle of all of last night's madness is the Penguins shameful diving. Letang and Crosby throw their head back any time anything happens (you might think guys with concussion histories would be a little more careful about the potential whiplash!), and Neal has been guilty of some serious embellishment on two calls this series too. No one even pointed it out on a broadcast last night, but in typical Penguins fashion, Kunitz breaks his stick with a slash on Coburn's ankle, and seconds later a Penguin flops at the slightest contact and draws a penalty. Disgraceful.
-27 minutes of ice time for Coburn last night, including 24 at even strength. That is 5 minutes more than anyone else on the team.
That is pretty much I feel. I had to check the score again this morning to make sure all that stuff really happened last night. That game had so many amazing, "momentum changing" plays that it was just surreal. The Bryzgalov save on Letang followed by Flyers SHG, the Pens scoring another goal in the final minute of the first, Couturier scoring with 2.8 secs left, Bryzgalov giving up a bad goal to start the third and Cooter singlehandedly getting it right back, Jagr getting the game winner, topped off by 2 hat tricks. Ridiculous.
Nothing in this series would surprise me anymore, so I don't want to presumptuous about what's going to happen next. What is clear though, is that the Penguins are utterly incapable of holding a lead against the Flyers. This is a carry-over from the regular season. I also said the first goal wouldn't matter much in this series given the offense capabilities and defensive carelessness of both of these teams, but I sure thought multiple goal leads would matter. Not so much. It is hard for me to imagine the Penguins winning 4 of 5 games when no lead is safe.
Notes:
-Did I say something about Giroux being invisible in game 1? People probably noticed his hat trick and three assists last night. It felt like November again with Giroux doing it all.
-As good as Giroux was, Cooter was nearly as good. Matched up against the presumptive MVP of the season, Cooter smoked him. It's not hyperbole to talk about his future franchise center potential. Of all the pieces moving in the Richards and Carter deals last summer, Cooter may be the best player of them all. There is nothing missing from his game. Skating, passing, a quick accurate shot, size he knows how to use, and off-the-charts awareness.
-Stats:
-Cooter was the second teenager in NHL history to score a hat trick, with the other coming in 1945.
-Cooter and Giroux teamed up as first pair to get a hat trick in the same playoff game since 1990.
-The Flyers trailed 2-0 for the 9th time in their last 14 games.
-Not a great game from Bryz, though he did make a few big stops which is really all you ask for in a game like that. Let's just enjoy...
-On the same play, what they don't show on that NBC broadcast is one of the worst dives I have even seen a hockey player make. Kris Letang brings soccer-style "play-acting" to the NHL, as Matt Read bumps him in the arm and Letang throws his head back, screams in "pain", and goes down like a sack of bricks. Lost in the shuffle of all of last night's madness is the Penguins shameful diving. Letang and Crosby throw their head back any time anything happens (you might think guys with concussion histories would be a little more careful about the potential whiplash!), and Neal has been guilty of some serious embellishment on two calls this series too. No one even pointed it out on a broadcast last night, but in typical Penguins fashion, Kunitz breaks his stick with a slash on Coburn's ankle, and seconds later a Penguin flops at the slightest contact and draws a penalty. Disgraceful.
-27 minutes of ice time for Coburn last night, including 24 at even strength. That is 5 minutes more than anyone else on the team.
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Penguins Game 1 Review
The Flyers main goal this series was winning a game in Pittsburgh, and that mission is already accomplished. Now, there is no reason they can't take two.
As mentioned yesterday, the Flyers are terrible in the first 10 minutes of games--I almost expect them to give up the first goal, and just hope they don't give up a second. Yesterday, it was made even worse with that goal in the last minute of the first, which looked to be a real backbreaker. The Flyers have shown an amazing ability to come back, and the Pens aren't too adept at shutting it down with a lead, but 3-0 is 3-0.
Hopefully the Flyers now have a mental edge. The Pens dominated the first, and seemed to regain control late in the 2nd after the Flyers got one, but the Pens really wilted down the stretch. They were frankly a mess in overtime, and I was thinking to myself they were getting very sloppy around their net and one of these loose pucks around there is going to end up in the net. That outcome didn't take long to materialize.
Going forward, the Flyers should focus on getting the puck deep. The Pens defense is not strong down low, and chipping it in will also limit the Pens chance to counter, which is their strength.
Other items:
-Bryzgalov played okay. I was about ready to declare that Fleury outplayed him in game 1, then Fleury gave up a bad goal to Briere. Either way, Bryzgalov has pretty much seen the worst possible thing happen (down 3 goals early, including an unlucky one), but finished pretty strong, moving confidently.
-Bourdon and Lilja definitely looked like a weak link out there. Lilja is slow but battled, and Bourdon seemed a little overwhelmed at times. Then Bourdon picked up an injury. Maybe Kubina will go back in, though it's believed he is struggling because he is not 100% anyway. A Kubina-Lilja pairing is kind of scary, because they will be SLOW.
-The legend of Briere rises. A little bit of luck on each goal, though clearly Briere was piling up the bad luck all year to get some breaks in the playoffs....
-Of course the first Briere goal was offsides. Tipping the scales on the whole, I don't think the Pens can complain about the officiating. All 3 of their power plays were completely embellished, and they were running Flyers and got only one penalty for all their late hits. Also, their third goal came directly after an icing call was waved off for no apparent reason.
-The Pens are definitely targeting Giroux and Timonen with late hits. Honestly though, if I were the Pens, I would tone down the physical game. Their physical aggressiveness didn't hurt them directly, but it feels like the Flyers are in their heads and Pens are trying to compensate by pushing them around.
-A pretty quiet night for the "stars." Crosby had a nice goal to get things going, but neither he nor Malkin were terribly threatening. Giroux was even more invisible.
-Big game from Schenn tonight though, which is great to see. The kid is stronger on his skates than he looks.
-And I will leave you with a tweet fom Dejan Kovacevic, Penguins beat writer: "If you're looking for reaction from#Pens, forget about it. They bailed like the place was on fire or something."
As mentioned yesterday, the Flyers are terrible in the first 10 minutes of games--I almost expect them to give up the first goal, and just hope they don't give up a second. Yesterday, it was made even worse with that goal in the last minute of the first, which looked to be a real backbreaker. The Flyers have shown an amazing ability to come back, and the Pens aren't too adept at shutting it down with a lead, but 3-0 is 3-0.
Hopefully the Flyers now have a mental edge. The Pens dominated the first, and seemed to regain control late in the 2nd after the Flyers got one, but the Pens really wilted down the stretch. They were frankly a mess in overtime, and I was thinking to myself they were getting very sloppy around their net and one of these loose pucks around there is going to end up in the net. That outcome didn't take long to materialize.
Going forward, the Flyers should focus on getting the puck deep. The Pens defense is not strong down low, and chipping it in will also limit the Pens chance to counter, which is their strength.
Other items:
-Bryzgalov played okay. I was about ready to declare that Fleury outplayed him in game 1, then Fleury gave up a bad goal to Briere. Either way, Bryzgalov has pretty much seen the worst possible thing happen (down 3 goals early, including an unlucky one), but finished pretty strong, moving confidently.
-Bourdon and Lilja definitely looked like a weak link out there. Lilja is slow but battled, and Bourdon seemed a little overwhelmed at times. Then Bourdon picked up an injury. Maybe Kubina will go back in, though it's believed he is struggling because he is not 100% anyway. A Kubina-Lilja pairing is kind of scary, because they will be SLOW.
-The legend of Briere rises. A little bit of luck on each goal, though clearly Briere was piling up the bad luck all year to get some breaks in the playoffs....
-Of course the first Briere goal was offsides. Tipping the scales on the whole, I don't think the Pens can complain about the officiating. All 3 of their power plays were completely embellished, and they were running Flyers and got only one penalty for all their late hits. Also, their third goal came directly after an icing call was waved off for no apparent reason.
-The Pens are definitely targeting Giroux and Timonen with late hits. Honestly though, if I were the Pens, I would tone down the physical game. Their physical aggressiveness didn't hurt them directly, but it feels like the Flyers are in their heads and Pens are trying to compensate by pushing them around.
-A pretty quiet night for the "stars." Crosby had a nice goal to get things going, but neither he nor Malkin were terribly threatening. Giroux was even more invisible.
-Big game from Schenn tonight though, which is great to see. The kid is stronger on his skates than he looks.
-And I will leave you with a tweet fom Dejan Kovacevic, Penguins beat writer: "If you're looking for reaction from
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Pens and Flyers go to War
The day is upon us. Clearly the series to watch across the league, this series has everything going for it to make it a fun watch; geographical rivals, short term and long term bad blood, coaches yelling on the benches, players sparring in the press, recent playoff history, the two highest scoring offenses in the league....
The Pens are no doubt the favorite for this series, and I'm sure many will be picking them to win the East based on their accomplishments this season, largely without Crosby in the lineup. Still, there is no way I could pick the Penguins in the series. I have to say the Flyers in 7, but really this series should be very close.
Things to watch:
-The Flyers' horrendous starts. The Flyers have been tied or trailing at the 10 minute mark in 51 out of the last 55 games. It's a stat that sounds like it can't possibly be right. Simply going back to March 1, a stretch that includes Bryzgalov's shutout streak, and the Flyers have been outscored 10-2 in the opening 10 minutes of games. Fortunately for them, no one has been able to hold their offense down.
Getting more specific, let's assume the Flyers have bad starts--the Flyers have .357 winning percentage when trailing after 1, 7th in the league. The Penguins have a .706 winning percentage when leading after 1 period, 19th in the league. Ironically, it is the Penguins who have the best winning percentage in the league when trailing after the first and/or second period.
Okay, too many numbers in the previous paragraph. The long story short, scoring first won't matter much this series. The Pens and Flyers are #1 and #2 respectively in the league in winning percentage when conceding the first goal of the game. (They are 9th and 7th respectively in winning percentage when scoring first)
-The Flyers' terrible day game record. I don't have the numbers, but the Flyers were atrocious in afternoon games this season, as their slow starts were even worse in these games. Game 3 will be a day game, and game 6 may also be a day game. The Flyers don't want to lose 2 in Pittsburgh then face a must win game 3 on Sunday afternoon.
-Bryzgalov's health. Is he 100%? Even if he is, can he get his March mojo back, when he was the best goalie in the league? Fleury should be largely reliable for the Pens, but Bryzgalov is tougher to predict. For now, I will just assume near-March form for Bryzgalov.
-Protecting the crease. When the Flyers are struggling, you see them conceding a lot of tap in goals on cross-crease passes and the like. They're not all-of-a-sudden going to protect the crease like the Rangers, against whom you can't score a goal without navigating a maze of collapsing defenders, but the Flyers can't get over-anxious on offense and leave lanes wide open around their own net.
-Cooter vs Malkin. Flyers fans have to hope the 19-year old is up to the task of playing against the presumptive MVP this season. Malkin will get his points, especially on the PP, but limiting his chances even strength and on the rush will be key. Grossmann's health will also be a big factor here. Watch for the Malkin cheapshots (slashing, sucker punches, elbows, slewfoots) as soon as he is challenged physically.
-The Flyers' 3rd defensive pair. It looks like the Flyers may be throwing out Bourdon and Lilja as the thrid pair in game 1. That makes me nervous, but with Meszaros out and Kubina struggling, the Flyers will be relying on the rookie and the slow veteran. Neither play is terribly fleet afoot, and a Timonen injury (thus raising these guys' minutes) would be disastrous for the Flyers.
-Briere's playoff form. It sounds like Briere is healthy, but he had a poor regular season. He has been a playoff hero though, especially last year. It might be too much to ask though for him to suddenly turn it on this year.
-The Penguins' diving. Crosby and Letang will be selling penalties, flopping and throwing their head around. Will they get the calls? Will this frustrate the Flyers?
The Pens are no doubt the favorite for this series, and I'm sure many will be picking them to win the East based on their accomplishments this season, largely without Crosby in the lineup. Still, there is no way I could pick the Penguins in the series. I have to say the Flyers in 7, but really this series should be very close.
Things to watch:
-The Flyers' horrendous starts. The Flyers have been tied or trailing at the 10 minute mark in 51 out of the last 55 games. It's a stat that sounds like it can't possibly be right. Simply going back to March 1, a stretch that includes Bryzgalov's shutout streak, and the Flyers have been outscored 10-2 in the opening 10 minutes of games. Fortunately for them, no one has been able to hold their offense down.
Getting more specific, let's assume the Flyers have bad starts--the Flyers have .357 winning percentage when trailing after 1, 7th in the league. The Penguins have a .706 winning percentage when leading after 1 period, 19th in the league. Ironically, it is the Penguins who have the best winning percentage in the league when trailing after the first and/or second period.
Okay, too many numbers in the previous paragraph. The long story short, scoring first won't matter much this series. The Pens and Flyers are #1 and #2 respectively in the league in winning percentage when conceding the first goal of the game. (They are 9th and 7th respectively in winning percentage when scoring first)
-The Flyers' terrible day game record. I don't have the numbers, but the Flyers were atrocious in afternoon games this season, as their slow starts were even worse in these games. Game 3 will be a day game, and game 6 may also be a day game. The Flyers don't want to lose 2 in Pittsburgh then face a must win game 3 on Sunday afternoon.
-Bryzgalov's health. Is he 100%? Even if he is, can he get his March mojo back, when he was the best goalie in the league? Fleury should be largely reliable for the Pens, but Bryzgalov is tougher to predict. For now, I will just assume near-March form for Bryzgalov.
-Protecting the crease. When the Flyers are struggling, you see them conceding a lot of tap in goals on cross-crease passes and the like. They're not all-of-a-sudden going to protect the crease like the Rangers, against whom you can't score a goal without navigating a maze of collapsing defenders, but the Flyers can't get over-anxious on offense and leave lanes wide open around their own net.
-Cooter vs Malkin. Flyers fans have to hope the 19-year old is up to the task of playing against the presumptive MVP this season. Malkin will get his points, especially on the PP, but limiting his chances even strength and on the rush will be key. Grossmann's health will also be a big factor here. Watch for the Malkin cheapshots (slashing, sucker punches, elbows, slewfoots) as soon as he is challenged physically.
-The Flyers' 3rd defensive pair. It looks like the Flyers may be throwing out Bourdon and Lilja as the thrid pair in game 1. That makes me nervous, but with Meszaros out and Kubina struggling, the Flyers will be relying on the rookie and the slow veteran. Neither play is terribly fleet afoot, and a Timonen injury (thus raising these guys' minutes) would be disastrous for the Flyers.
-Briere's playoff form. It sounds like Briere is healthy, but he had a poor regular season. He has been a playoff hero though, especially last year. It might be too much to ask though for him to suddenly turn it on this year.
-The Penguins' diving. Crosby and Letang will be selling penalties, flopping and throwing their head around. Will they get the calls? Will this frustrate the Flyers?
Monday, April 9, 2012
Playoff Picks
It's the most wonderful time of the year, and I am obligated to make picks.
The first thing to do is throw out the official NHL seedings. Not only do they jack up division winners, but a team's prowess in 4v4 OTs and shootouts is worthless. With that in mind, I adjust the standings so that all games are simply declared ties if tied at the end of regulation. This produces the following adjusted standings.
With that in mind....
Eastern Conference:
-Rangers (#2) vs Sens (#8), Rangers in 5
The Rangers have been rock solid all year. I can't see them slipping up against an overachieving Sens team.
-Bruins (#4) vs Caps (#7), Bruins in 5
The Bruins have lost their form that saw them brutalizing opponents last year in the playoffs and at the beginning of this season. Still, I see the Caps as a broken team this year. Career lows for Ovechkin, Backstrom not 100%, Vokoun out and Neuvirth questionable. The Caps are not going anywhere.
-Panthers (#5) vs Devils (#6), Devils in 7
In the NHL, every team with a positive goal differential made the playoffs. The only two teams to make the playoffs with a negative goal differential were the Caps and the Panthers--the Panthers had a whopping -24 goal differential One year removed from a last place finish, are they the worst team in the playoffs? Probably. The Devils aren't a juggernaut either though. Things could be interesting.
-Pens (#1) vs Flyers (#3)
Stay tuned...
Western Conference:
-Canucks (#3) vs Kings (#7), Canucks in 7
I'm really not sure what to make of the Canucks this year, after their huge season last year. Kesler and the twins' production is way off, and Daniel may be out with a concussion anyway. The Kings had a very tough time scoring goals this year--29th in the NHL. They won't find many holes on Vancouver, the #1 defense in the NHL. This series will be a real slog. Looks like a long series to me.
-Blues (#1) vs Sharks (#8), Blues in 6
For a long time this season it looked like the Sharks were going to miss the playoffs. Long time regular season standout/playoff disappointment trying to flip the script? Probably not. I suspect the Blues will not be making a long run this post-season, but they should have enough to top a team heading in the wrong direction.
-Coyotes (#6) vs Hawks (#5), Hawks in 7
The Coyotes are the classic overachieving team this year, and Mike Smith had an amazing season in net. A high team save percentage usually bodes well for the playoffs. The Hawks on the other hand are always so dangerous, though nowhere near as complete a team as the Cup champs two years ago. A lot could be riding on Jonathan Toews's health. Both teams finished the season very strongly.
-Predators (#2) vs Wings (#4), Preds in 6
Like the Flyers/Pens in the East, this is the blockbuster matchup in the West. The Wings finished the season ice cold on offense. There's really no clear way to pick between these two, so I'm going with Nashville.
The first thing to do is throw out the official NHL seedings. Not only do they jack up division winners, but a team's prowess in 4v4 OTs and shootouts is worthless. With that in mind, I adjust the standings so that all games are simply declared ties if tied at the end of regulation. This produces the following adjusted standings.
With that in mind....
Eastern Conference:
-Rangers (#2) vs Sens (#8), Rangers in 5
The Rangers have been rock solid all year. I can't see them slipping up against an overachieving Sens team.
-Bruins (#4) vs Caps (#7), Bruins in 5
The Bruins have lost their form that saw them brutalizing opponents last year in the playoffs and at the beginning of this season. Still, I see the Caps as a broken team this year. Career lows for Ovechkin, Backstrom not 100%, Vokoun out and Neuvirth questionable. The Caps are not going anywhere.
-Panthers (#5) vs Devils (#6), Devils in 7
In the NHL, every team with a positive goal differential made the playoffs. The only two teams to make the playoffs with a negative goal differential were the Caps and the Panthers--the Panthers had a whopping -24 goal differential One year removed from a last place finish, are they the worst team in the playoffs? Probably. The Devils aren't a juggernaut either though. Things could be interesting.
-Pens (#1) vs Flyers (#3)
Stay tuned...
Western Conference:
-Canucks (#3) vs Kings (#7), Canucks in 7
I'm really not sure what to make of the Canucks this year, after their huge season last year. Kesler and the twins' production is way off, and Daniel may be out with a concussion anyway. The Kings had a very tough time scoring goals this year--29th in the NHL. They won't find many holes on Vancouver, the #1 defense in the NHL. This series will be a real slog. Looks like a long series to me.
-Blues (#1) vs Sharks (#8), Blues in 6
For a long time this season it looked like the Sharks were going to miss the playoffs. Long time regular season standout/playoff disappointment trying to flip the script? Probably not. I suspect the Blues will not be making a long run this post-season, but they should have enough to top a team heading in the wrong direction.
-Coyotes (#6) vs Hawks (#5), Hawks in 7
The Coyotes are the classic overachieving team this year, and Mike Smith had an amazing season in net. A high team save percentage usually bodes well for the playoffs. The Hawks on the other hand are always so dangerous, though nowhere near as complete a team as the Cup champs two years ago. A lot could be riding on Jonathan Toews's health. Both teams finished the season very strongly.
-Predators (#2) vs Wings (#4), Preds in 6
Like the Flyers/Pens in the East, this is the blockbuster matchup in the West. The Wings finished the season ice cold on offense. There's really no clear way to pick between these two, so I'm going with Nashville.
Sunday, April 8, 2012
The Grudge Match
What's been all-but-inevitable has now become official. The Flyers will play the hated Pens in the first round.
It will be a nasty series. I have to say it was very gratifying to hear some piling on the Pens in the last week. First, Berube said Malkin and Crosby were the dirtiest players on their team. Then Milbury called out Crosby (for which the league and network leaned on him to apologize), and Tortorella said they were the most arrogant team in the league for their hypocrisy in whining about cheap shots. Lastly, Cherry called out Crosby for slashing and giving it out to guys.
Personally, I have been harping on these guys for years, mostly Malkin, for being total weasels. When Crosby came into the league, he dove and cried all the time. He mostly cleaned that up. Malkin has flown totally under most people's radar, and I think he's a total punk. Play him physically, and he will respond with sucker punches, slashes and elbows. He will not square up physically--he only takes shots on unsuspecting players. He's been doing this for years.
I also don't really care for Crosby complaining after the Flyers game last weekend about the Schenn cross-check (even though seconds before he hit Schenn late, high, and with more force), basically called out the Flyers for whining about the Briere hit ("maybe [Laviolette] shouldn't have put him out here"), and only then later admitting he was slashing the Flyers like crazy that game.
I don't like the Pens one bit, and this series could be a real slugfest, especially early on when each team is trying to set the tone and has some breathing room. And all this is without even mentioning the Pens usual parade of players known to throw more than their share of cheapshots over the last few years---Kunitz, Ruutu, Cooke. Whatever happens in this series physically, the Pens deserve it and I'm sick of their holier-than-thou attitude.
It will be a nasty series. I have to say it was very gratifying to hear some piling on the Pens in the last week. First, Berube said Malkin and Crosby were the dirtiest players on their team. Then Milbury called out Crosby (for which the league and network leaned on him to apologize), and Tortorella said they were the most arrogant team in the league for their hypocrisy in whining about cheap shots. Lastly, Cherry called out Crosby for slashing and giving it out to guys.
Personally, I have been harping on these guys for years, mostly Malkin, for being total weasels. When Crosby came into the league, he dove and cried all the time. He mostly cleaned that up. Malkin has flown totally under most people's radar, and I think he's a total punk. Play him physically, and he will respond with sucker punches, slashes and elbows. He will not square up physically--he only takes shots on unsuspecting players. He's been doing this for years.
I also don't really care for Crosby complaining after the Flyers game last weekend about the Schenn cross-check (even though seconds before he hit Schenn late, high, and with more force), basically called out the Flyers for whining about the Briere hit ("maybe [Laviolette] shouldn't have put him out here"), and only then later admitting he was slashing the Flyers like crazy that game.
I don't like the Pens one bit, and this series could be a real slugfest, especially early on when each team is trying to set the tone and has some breathing room. And all this is without even mentioning the Pens usual parade of players known to throw more than their share of cheapshots over the last few years---Kunitz, Ruutu, Cooke. Whatever happens in this series physically, the Pens deserve it and I'm sick of their holier-than-thou attitude.
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