Penguins Game 1 Review

The Flyers main goal this series was winning a game in Pittsburgh, and that mission is already accomplished.  Now, there is no reason they can't take two.

As mentioned yesterday, the Flyers are terrible in the first 10 minutes of games--I almost expect them to give up the first goal, and just hope they don't give up a second.  Yesterday, it was made even worse with that goal in the last minute of the first, which looked to be a real backbreaker.  The Flyers have shown an amazing ability to come back, and the Pens aren't too adept at shutting it down with a lead, but 3-0 is 3-0.

Hopefully the Flyers now have a mental edge.  The Pens dominated the first, and seemed to regain control late in the 2nd after the Flyers got one, but the Pens really wilted down the stretch.  They were frankly a mess in overtime, and I was thinking to myself they were getting very sloppy around their net and one of these loose pucks around there is going to end up in the net.  That outcome didn't take long to materialize.

Going forward, the Flyers should focus on getting the puck deep.  The Pens defense is not strong down low, and chipping it in will also limit the Pens chance to counter, which is their strength.


Other items:
-Bryzgalov played okay.  I was about ready to declare that Fleury outplayed him in game 1, then Fleury gave up a bad goal to Briere.  Either way, Bryzgalov has pretty much seen the worst possible thing happen (down 3 goals early, including an unlucky one), but finished pretty strong, moving confidently.

-Bourdon and Lilja definitely looked like a weak link out there.  Lilja is slow but battled, and Bourdon seemed a little overwhelmed at times.  Then Bourdon picked up an injury.  Maybe Kubina will go back in, though it's believed he is struggling because he is not 100% anyway.  A Kubina-Lilja pairing is kind of scary, because they will be SLOW.

-The legend of Briere rises.  A little bit of luck on each goal, though clearly Briere was piling up the bad luck all year to get some breaks in the playoffs....

-Of course the first Briere goal was offsides.  Tipping the scales on the whole, I don't think the Pens can complain about the officiating.  All 3 of their power plays were completely embellished, and they were running Flyers and got only one penalty for all their late hits.  Also, their third goal came directly after an icing call was waved off for no apparent reason.

-The Pens are definitely targeting Giroux and Timonen with late hits.  Honestly though, if I were the Pens, I would tone down the physical game.  Their physical aggressiveness didn't hurt them directly, but it feels like the Flyers are in their heads and Pens are trying to compensate by pushing them around. 

-A pretty quiet night for the "stars."  Crosby had a nice goal to get things going, but neither he nor Malkin were terribly threatening.  Giroux was even more invisible. 

-Big game from Schenn tonight though, which is great to see.  The kid is stronger on his skates than he looks.

-And I will leave you with a tweet fom Dejan Kovacevic, Penguins beat writer: "If you're looking for reaction from #Pens, forget about it. They bailed like the place was on fire or something."

Midseason Player Reviews

I don't like rating players by grades, and there's no use denying every player faces different expectations and different roles.  I'm going to simply assume some degree of subjective expectations and rate players with a stock-rating flavor.

Outperform
-Claude Giroux.  No brainer here.  Last season he looked like a promising young center, but was arguably the 4th most visible center on the team.  With Richards and Carter traded to make room for a goalie, Giroux faced a lot of pressure to be the offensive lynchpin.  He has responded with an MVP caliber season.

-Jaromir Jagr.  Sticking with Giroux's line, no one was sure how Jagr would perform after three season out of the NHL.  50 points?  60 points?  He still couldn't do a point a game, could he?  Apparently yes.  After a slow start, he found his legs and has looked fantastic, and is a key offensive player for the Flyers.  Nagging injuries are the only thing slowing him down now.

-Scott Hartnell.  And now to complete the Giroux line!  Hartnell got off to a very rocky start, missing preseason time due to medical tests, and his place in the lineup was very much at risk with 2 points in 7 games and Simmonds on the top PP unit.  Placing him with Jagr and Giroux has been magic, as every player has looked better since this trio was complete.  Hartnell has 35 points in 34 games since then.

-Matt Read.  On pace for 25+ goals, and an offensive factor every night.  What more could the Flyers want from him?

-Jake Voracek.  His pace of ~50 points isn't going to turn many heads, and is line with his career averages, however I think he is playing better than that.  Didn't start off great, but he is up on his skates attacking the defense every night.  It's not a coincidence that the Flyers go on win streaks when he is playing his best.  Early in the season I talked about Jagr replacing Leino's offensive contribution, but it's actually been Voracek carrying the puck, making plays, contributing what the Flyers would've hoped for from Leino.

-Kimmo Timonen.  He has played big minutes and piled up the points, and looks to produce at a rate not seen since his best years in Nashville.

-Max Talbot.  Has played reliably all over the lineup, and at midseason is already near career highs in goal scoring and points.

-Sean Couturier.  I didn't listen to scouts early this year when they nearly unanimously predicted Cooter would make the big team.  I looked at the roster and though, nah.  Instead, Cooter has simply made it impossible to take him out of the lineup, playing like a veteran.

-Harry Zolneirczyk.  Despite being sent down early in the season, he has come back and looked great on the 4th line--energetic with occasional scoring.  Thumbs up, though to maintain a role like this in the NHL he will have to have an increased role on the PK.

-Zac Rinaldo.  I was pretty skeptical of this wild man coming into the season.  Although he seems targeted by officials, he has general kept it under control, potted a goal here or there, and aggressively sought contact on the ice. 

-Marc-Andre Bourdon.  His ascent to the NHL hasn't really gone like many in the organization may have hoped, but he has played within himself and looked like he belongs in the NHL.

Market Perform
-Danny Briere.  A pretty ho-hum regular season for Briere.  He's been there for some key goals, but hasn't looked consistently dangerous and is on pace for his lowest point totals for a full season as a Flyer (when healthy).  I am giving him somewhat of a pass due to raising his game in the playoffs the last two years, and the expectation that he will do it again.

-Matt Carle.  Carle continues to hum along, playing big minutes and getting decent point totals.  I still say he has the worst shot on the team though, so there's always that to infuriate Flyers fans when he gets so many chances with skating and awareness on the ice. 

-Wayne Simmonds.  Simmonds teased Flyers fans early this year and preseason with some offensive skill, however Flyer fans have seen some stone hands since then.  Simmonds is always battling out there, but his offense probably will never be more than occasional and streaky.

-Braydon Coburn.  Quiet but largely steady from Braydon.

-Sergei Bobrovsky.  Bob continues to progress nicely, and currently sports a much better stat line than Bryzgalov.  He probably deserves a chance to get some starts and be given a chance to run with it.

-Andreas Lilja.  Doing exactly what was expected; old and slow, occasionally physical defensemen.

Underperform
-Brayden Schenn.  I don't like putting him here, as when I see him play I see a skilled and intelligent player, and injuries never really gave him a chance.  Still, on January 1, there he was with 0 points and -7 in 8 games.  Hopefully, the second half will treat him better (and the signs are already good).

-James Van Riemsdyk.  Looking at a low 40s point season, and is not visible many nights.  This is even when I commented earlier this season that his points line flatters his play.  He was supposed to progress more than this by this point.

-Andrej Meszaros. The team's best defensemen last year, he struggled early.  His play has improved, but his overall body of work is not what Flyers fans were hoping for.

-Ilya Bryzgalov.  If you've read this blog, or even followed the Flyers at all, do I need to say anything?  Not playing like the top goalie the Flyers signed him to be.  He still can figure it out though.

-Jody Shelley.  Yes, he is still on this team.

No Rating
Chris Pronger, Erik Gustafsson

The Most Interesting Offseason in the World

The free agent frenzy is quieting down now, and you can take stock of most things.

The big point overall is that UFAs this year made a killing.  Players were getting 30% more than a comparable player would've gotten 2 years ago.  I think it's mostly due the to fact that it was a generally weak free agent group coming in a year where the salary cap increased more than expected.  And then you have a team like Florida spending money like a drunken sailor in a whorehouse on decent but unspectacular players simply to get to the cap floor that compounded the perverted market.

For the Flyers, the Extreme Makeover continues.  Out with the Canadian golden boys, in with puck possession eastern europeans, a Russian goalie, and a black guy.  Despite a bunch of rumors of something bigger like Brad Richards, Stamkos, or a big trade, the Flyers mostly stuck to the expected game plan. Mostly.

The most "predictable" move was adding a 3rd/4th line character guy.  The Flyers needed some experience in that area, and the team has commented that they need a "new Laperriere" to provide leadership and character in that role.  Max Talbot seems to fit that bill, the only surprise being that he comes from the Penguins.

Speaking of the Penguins, there was that signing of Jagr the other day.  Now nearly everyone expected the Flyers to be looking at wingers, maybe Erik Cole or Michael Ryder, but no one was taking about Jagr to the Flyers until the day before free agency.  Apparently the Flyers pursuit of him didn't even start until then until Holmgren speculatively sent a text to former flyer Petr Svoboda, who is the agent for Jagr and Voracek.

Jagr will be a very interesting case.  He'll turn 40 in midseason and will not be the dominant player of old, but he's remained productive in Russia and is coming off a very strong World Championships performance.  It's easy to question whether an aging temperamental Euro star is a right fit on the Flyers, but Jagr seems more dedicated to training and staying in shape than ever before.  Also he apparently did his homework and chose the Flyers (which were not the richest offer) after talking to the coaches and players.  There's lots of reasons to be hopeful that Jagr will have a productive season, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him hit 60 points this season.

Lastly, there is the signing of Andreas Lilja.  A cheap, depth defensemen for the 6/7 role.


Other Signings:
-Handzus to SJ for $2.5x2 years.  Early in the day it was reported that the Flyers had signed Handzus, to which I was receptive.  He would be a big centermen to play on the third line and would be a decent fit at the right price.  Seems to me SJ got a good deal here for an aging though still valuable centermen.

-Upshall to Florida for $3.5x4.  Wow, the first of many big overpayments on the day.  This signing was the perfect marriage of a player who's not quite as good as he thinks he is (career highs; 22 goals and 34 points) with a team looking to overpay to get to the cap floor.

-Leino to Buffalo for $4.5x6.  This is an outright shocker.  I don't blame the Flyers for holding steady at a $3m deal, though I suspected someone else would come along and offer more.  Just not that much more.  Calendar year 2010 Leino, who scored 21 points in 19 playoff games and had a very strong first half of the ensuing regular season, was a player worthy of a deal approaching $4m a season.  Calendar year 2011 Leino, not so much.  While Leino is younger and better defensively than Jagr (though he's still not great defensively himself), what are the odds the Flyers get more points and goals from Jagr at $3.3m this year than Buffalo gets from Leino at $4.5?

-Cole to Montreal for $4.5x4.  This is the guy who I wanted on the Flyers, and while that's not an outrageous price, it was still too high for the Flyers to entertain.

-Connolly to Leafs for $4.75x2.  Connolly is a talented player who plays at near a point/game pace when healthy, but when is he ever healthy?  He's only played 70 games once since the lockout, and here are his point totals the last 5 seasons; 1, 40, 47, 65, 42.  This is a $5 million player now?  At least it's only a 2 year deal.

-Vokoun to the Caps for $1.5x1.  An outright steal for the Caps, as he fell into their laps when he didn't find a big money deal on July 1 and looked for a contender to join.  Of course the Flyers could not have entered free agency and expected to get Vokoun for anywhere near this amount, but it still hurts to watch a competitor get such a quality goalie for so little salary, even if it was just luck.


Up Next for the Flyers:
-The Flyers don't have much cap space left.  They likely have $3m or so in cap space left after signing Simmonds and making expected cuts, but they still need to carry a 19th or 20th skater and leave a little cap buffer.

-There are rumors the Flyers are sniffing around Jason Arnott.  He would be of similar interest to the Flyers for the same reason as Handzus; a big third line center at this point of his career.  He might want too much money though.

-The Stamkos rumors never go away with the Flyers.  The latest is Schenn, Bobrovsky and 1st rounder for Stamkos.  If there was no salary cap and this was purely about hockey, I definitely do this deal.  Given the cap restraints however, the Flyers will likely have to dump more salary to fit Stamkos in (Hartnell or Carle maybe), and would not be in great shape next offseason allocating raises to JVR and Coburn, so it's ultimately a tough call.  This is assuming of course the rumors are accurate and Stamkos doesn't simply resign with the Lightning.