Any way you look at it, it's awful. The Flyers are 1-7-1 in their last 9. Only laughing stocks Buffalo, Carolina, and Edmonton, and injury-ravaged Columbus have worse records. The penalty kill is dead last. They have been dominated in their last 2 road division games against the Rangers and Islanders. The Flyers are in the bottom handful of teams in shot differential, 5v5 Corsi percentage, and team save percentage. The bottom line, is they are getting whipped.
Everyone knows the defense is not talented enough, but the problems have become much bigger. For one thing, their team defensive coverage is terrible. It seems opponents find countless passing seams to exploit and are quicker to every loose puck, and that's when someone is not completely unmarked in the slot. One could look at the Detroit loss and conclude maybe the rebounds and bounces simply didn't go in favor of the Flyers, but when it happens every night, it's not luck.
Second, the offense is completely reliant on the Giroux line. Giroux is generally doing his thing, Schenn is contributing right now, and Voracek continues to be spectacular. Every other line has disappeared. Lecavalier can't find a role. Umberger has been total deadweight. Couturier handles the puck like a hot potato and immediately looks to get rid of it. Simmonds has faded after his promising start. Then end result is that Giroux and Voracek have been on the ice for every single Flyers goal in the last 4 games.
Bad team defense and completely one dimensional scoring is a recipe for a last place team. The Flyers had a similarly bad start last year amongst the coaching change, but as I've already written, there's no excuse for such a start this year. Furthermore, there is no clear path for the Flyers to crawl out of this mess. I expect things to naturally rebound a little, but given the depth of the problems, hope for a playoff spot appears increasingly distant.
Opinions on NHL topics of the moment, but mostly on the Flyers.
Sunday, November 30, 2014
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Trade Speculation: Oilers and Flyers
The Oilers are terrible. They and Buffalo are the worst teams in the league. Most recently, the Oilers were crushed 7-1 at home by the Blackhawks and were booed and heckled off the ice. As you would expect, fans are frustrated and the team must be looking at all alternatives of management changes or making a trade.
The latest buzz is that the Oilers want a center, and are dangling David Perron. In the past, the Oilers were looking for defense, and they may or may not have been close to trading for Coburn. One version of the story is that Flyers asked for Eberle for Coburn, but then Oilers wanted to include Simmonds in the deal.
Whatever happened then, is there a deal out there now? Perron might be the kind of player Hextall is looking to add. The Flyers sorely lack skill wingers. Now 26, Perron is a skilled and energetic winger. I think there were high hopes for him in St. Louis, but his time there was derailed with concussions. He's probably not a defensive zone stalwart, and his cap hit is ~$3.8 million this year and next until he is a free agent.
Perron had a solid first season in Edmonton last year with 57 points in 78 games. This year, he has 10 in 21, with one of the worst +/- on the team, even though his Corsi rating is one of the best on the team. Advanced stats also show he hardly gets any defensive zone starts, which may contribute to that high Corsi rating and speak to their (lack of) defensive trust in him.
While some have floated that the Oilers are looking for a #1 center, there's no way Perron is going to fetch that. Would they be interested in Schenn or Couturier? I think they'd listen.
Schenn and Couturier are both a few years younger than Perron, and their career potential is still uncertain. Over the last year or so, Couturier has seemed to be more valued than Schenn. This season, Schenn is outperforming Couturier.
In my opinion, Couturier's development has been pretty disappointing, showing little offensive initiative and participating in an awful, awful penalty kill. Every time he gets the puck, he almost immediately stops skating, holds it, and looks to dish it off. Playing like that, it's no wonder he hasn't tallied a point in 15 out of 20 games this season. Then again, he was the ice time leader for the Flyers last night.
Either way, Hextall is not going to trade either young player based on how many points they have in the last month. The Flyers look like they will be in a for a battle just to reach the playoffs this year, and Hextall does not appear inclined to seek short term solutions. Perron being older and closer to UFA status probably kills a swap for a young Flyers center.
The only remaining wrinkle is if this could rekindle Coburn talks. Coburn is a defensive anchor, though he's not a game-changer. He plays a lot of minutes for the Flyers, and he could do the same in Edmonton for several more seasons. He would be a good addition for Edmonton, I think.
My thought is, that Flyers defense is lousy, and with or without Coburn it's going to remain generally mediocre this season. Hextall's prescription for fixing the defense is to wait for young guys to develop, and by the time that happens Coburn will need a new contract. Trading Coburn and giving Perron 1.5 seasons in Philadelphia to earn a spot on the team and a new contract might be an interesting way to develop the team with an eye to the future when it would be primed for serious playoff runs. Young reinforcements are coming to the Flyers defense, while there are not many on the way to put on the wings.
The latest buzz is that the Oilers want a center, and are dangling David Perron. In the past, the Oilers were looking for defense, and they may or may not have been close to trading for Coburn. One version of the story is that Flyers asked for Eberle for Coburn, but then Oilers wanted to include Simmonds in the deal.
Whatever happened then, is there a deal out there now? Perron might be the kind of player Hextall is looking to add. The Flyers sorely lack skill wingers. Now 26, Perron is a skilled and energetic winger. I think there were high hopes for him in St. Louis, but his time there was derailed with concussions. He's probably not a defensive zone stalwart, and his cap hit is ~$3.8 million this year and next until he is a free agent.
Perron had a solid first season in Edmonton last year with 57 points in 78 games. This year, he has 10 in 21, with one of the worst +/- on the team, even though his Corsi rating is one of the best on the team. Advanced stats also show he hardly gets any defensive zone starts, which may contribute to that high Corsi rating and speak to their (lack of) defensive trust in him.
While some have floated that the Oilers are looking for a #1 center, there's no way Perron is going to fetch that. Would they be interested in Schenn or Couturier? I think they'd listen.
Schenn and Couturier are both a few years younger than Perron, and their career potential is still uncertain. Over the last year or so, Couturier has seemed to be more valued than Schenn. This season, Schenn is outperforming Couturier.
In my opinion, Couturier's development has been pretty disappointing, showing little offensive initiative and participating in an awful, awful penalty kill. Every time he gets the puck, he almost immediately stops skating, holds it, and looks to dish it off. Playing like that, it's no wonder he hasn't tallied a point in 15 out of 20 games this season. Then again, he was the ice time leader for the Flyers last night.
Either way, Hextall is not going to trade either young player based on how many points they have in the last month. The Flyers look like they will be in a for a battle just to reach the playoffs this year, and Hextall does not appear inclined to seek short term solutions. Perron being older and closer to UFA status probably kills a swap for a young Flyers center.
The only remaining wrinkle is if this could rekindle Coburn talks. Coburn is a defensive anchor, though he's not a game-changer. He plays a lot of minutes for the Flyers, and he could do the same in Edmonton for several more seasons. He would be a good addition for Edmonton, I think.
My thought is, that Flyers defense is lousy, and with or without Coburn it's going to remain generally mediocre this season. Hextall's prescription for fixing the defense is to wait for young guys to develop, and by the time that happens Coburn will need a new contract. Trading Coburn and giving Perron 1.5 seasons in Philadelphia to earn a spot on the team and a new contract might be an interesting way to develop the team with an eye to the future when it would be primed for serious playoff runs. Young reinforcements are coming to the Flyers defense, while there are not many on the way to put on the wings.
Tuesday, November 18, 2014
A Week Without Points
Things were looking up for the Flyers, with 3 consecutive wins in strong performances. After an extended break, the Flyers lost all that momentum and came away empty handed against the Blue Jackets and Canadiens over the weekend.
Those two teams represented the opposite ends of the spectrum, as the Canadiens are first overall, and the Blue Jackets last. The result was the same against both however. I thought the performance against the Blue Jackets performance was sloppy, while the Canadiens game mainly got away from the Flyers despite some battling.
The real takeaway from both games is that the Flyers yielded 3 PP goals against in each. You won't win many games giving up 3 PP goals, regardless of who you're playing. The Flyers' penalty kill is now ranked 29th, and they've been shorthanded more often recently.
It's too early in the season to be scoreboard watching and checking the standings. The Flyers really should just be concerned about getting the point they can by themselves, but these penalty killing problems must be addressed ASAP or they will continue to drop points.
Notes
-Brayden Schenn's stock is rising recently. He's on a 5 game point streak, scoring 7 points in those games. When he was moved to the Read-Couturier line, that line looked much more perky offensively, and when he slid in with Giroux and Voracek against Montreal he scored twice. He now has 13 points in 16 games overall.
-The Umberger-Lecavalier line has looked pretty hopeless. Clearly the Flyers worst line IMO. Umberger has remained invisible, and while Lecavalier has been getting PP time, he hasn't been very effective. Against Montreal, he was extremely trigger happy and attempted 12 shots, but only one of those even found its way to Price.
Those two teams represented the opposite ends of the spectrum, as the Canadiens are first overall, and the Blue Jackets last. The result was the same against both however. I thought the performance against the Blue Jackets performance was sloppy, while the Canadiens game mainly got away from the Flyers despite some battling.
The real takeaway from both games is that the Flyers yielded 3 PP goals against in each. You won't win many games giving up 3 PP goals, regardless of who you're playing. The Flyers' penalty kill is now ranked 29th, and they've been shorthanded more often recently.
It's too early in the season to be scoreboard watching and checking the standings. The Flyers really should just be concerned about getting the point they can by themselves, but these penalty killing problems must be addressed ASAP or they will continue to drop points.
Notes
-Brayden Schenn's stock is rising recently. He's on a 5 game point streak, scoring 7 points in those games. When he was moved to the Read-Couturier line, that line looked much more perky offensively, and when he slid in with Giroux and Voracek against Montreal he scored twice. He now has 13 points in 16 games overall.
-The Umberger-Lecavalier line has looked pretty hopeless. Clearly the Flyers worst line IMO. Umberger has remained invisible, and while Lecavalier has been getting PP time, he hasn't been very effective. Against Montreal, he was extremely trigger happy and attempted 12 shots, but only one of those even found its way to Price.
Thursday, November 6, 2014
What's Working, What Isn't
One month into the season, some truths around this year's team are settling in.
-FTW. Voracek is playing amazing. Clearly the best performer on the team right now. I attended the LA Kings game last week, and he was easily the best player on the ice for either team IMO. With 18 points in 12 games, only Crosby has more points. He's still not much of a shooter in my opinion, but he is a top-notch puck carrier and his 10-pound weight loss in the offseason has worked out really well, noticeably increasing his quickness and stamina.
-FAIL. The team has no Hartnell replacement on the top line or top PP-unit. Raffl has done pretty well playing with Voracek and Giroux, tying Simmonds for the team lead in goals largely with his skating and by popping up in good spots on both ends of the ice. Still, he's just a complementary player, and he doesn't play on the PP either. And now he's out for 6 weeks as ANOTHER Flyers gets injured after being struck with a shot in the foot. The man the Flyers received for Hartnell, R.J. Umberger, is appearing in games according to the box scores, but I cannot verify that fact after watching the games.
-FTW. PPs against are way down. The Flyers are currently in 6th in the league in times shorthanded. They were 29th last year, and dead last the two years before that.
-FAIL. The PP is down, and their failure to convert chances at key junctures in games has cost them points in the standings. Part of that is Hartnell down, and part of the is Streit replacing Timonen. Streit is a good PP player, but his style is much different. Streit loves to shoot (and has a much better shot that Timonen), whereas Timonen was a manager back there. Streit's style may lead to a little more streakiness in results if the bounces don't go your way when you fire it in there. Additionally, when Lecavalier returned from injury he was immediately put into the Hartnell high slot spot, but by the end of the game Schenn was reinserted there. I guess Schenn will get an extended opportunity on the ice with top talent there, even if he lost the chance to play LW with Giroux and Voracek at even strength. Let's see what you can do, young man.
-FTW. Michael Del Zotto's role is increasing, often leading the team in ice time. He holds onto the puck longer than any other defensemen on the roster, which was a trait this defensive group was generally lacking.
-FAIL. Ghost was gone in a flash. I don't blame the team, but I was hoping to see a few flashes from Ghost before he was sent back down. I did like what I saw from Colaiacovo in his first game, reading the game well and managing the puck. It will be interesting to see how a defense corps prominently featuring multiple guys whose NHL career was on the fringes (Colaiacovo, Del Zotto, Schultz) does over the next few weeks while MacDonald and Coburn recover.
-FTW. Voracek is playing amazing. Clearly the best performer on the team right now. I attended the LA Kings game last week, and he was easily the best player on the ice for either team IMO. With 18 points in 12 games, only Crosby has more points. He's still not much of a shooter in my opinion, but he is a top-notch puck carrier and his 10-pound weight loss in the offseason has worked out really well, noticeably increasing his quickness and stamina.
-FAIL. The team has no Hartnell replacement on the top line or top PP-unit. Raffl has done pretty well playing with Voracek and Giroux, tying Simmonds for the team lead in goals largely with his skating and by popping up in good spots on both ends of the ice. Still, he's just a complementary player, and he doesn't play on the PP either. And now he's out for 6 weeks as ANOTHER Flyers gets injured after being struck with a shot in the foot. The man the Flyers received for Hartnell, R.J. Umberger, is appearing in games according to the box scores, but I cannot verify that fact after watching the games.
-FTW. PPs against are way down. The Flyers are currently in 6th in the league in times shorthanded. They were 29th last year, and dead last the two years before that.
-FAIL. The PP is down, and their failure to convert chances at key junctures in games has cost them points in the standings. Part of that is Hartnell down, and part of the is Streit replacing Timonen. Streit is a good PP player, but his style is much different. Streit loves to shoot (and has a much better shot that Timonen), whereas Timonen was a manager back there. Streit's style may lead to a little more streakiness in results if the bounces don't go your way when you fire it in there. Additionally, when Lecavalier returned from injury he was immediately put into the Hartnell high slot spot, but by the end of the game Schenn was reinserted there. I guess Schenn will get an extended opportunity on the ice with top talent there, even if he lost the chance to play LW with Giroux and Voracek at even strength. Let's see what you can do, young man.
-FTW. Michael Del Zotto's role is increasing, often leading the team in ice time. He holds onto the puck longer than any other defensemen on the roster, which was a trait this defensive group was generally lacking.
-FAIL. Ghost was gone in a flash. I don't blame the team, but I was hoping to see a few flashes from Ghost before he was sent back down. I did like what I saw from Colaiacovo in his first game, reading the game well and managing the puck. It will be interesting to see how a defense corps prominently featuring multiple guys whose NHL career was on the fringes (Colaiacovo, Del Zotto, Schultz) does over the next few weeks while MacDonald and Coburn recover.
Sunday, October 26, 2014
Ghost Sighting
Last night the Flyers clawed their way to victory against the Wings, despite being outshot 24-8 after two periods. The turning point of the game was a nice scoring play by the Flyers go-to scoring combo of Chris VandeVelde and Nicklas Grossmann. Not exactly a well-deserved win, but I'll take it after coming up empty-handed in better performances a few weeks ago.
The real noteworthy thing about last night's game was the debut of Shayne Gostisbehere. I've seen "Ghost" play a handful of times (including the NCAA championship game last year in person), and he is a very exciting player. Fast, sleek, skilled, and aggressive on offense. He is, however, still far from being a complete NHL defensemen. He's going to have to learn to pick his spots carefully in the fast-paced NHL game, and in terms of raw physical strength it is not an exaggeration to say that he would be one of the weakest defensemen in the NHL.
Hextall has been telling everyone who will listen that he prefers to let young players develop slowly in the lower ranks. Morin and Ghost looked pretty good in the preseason; good enough that in years past Clarke or Holmgren would've have kept such young talent on the roster. It wasn't enough for Hextall, who is more concerned about where these young players will in 3 years than giving this year's NHL roster an incremental boost.
Nothing has changed from that plan, and Ghost is only here because of injuries to Coburn and MacDonald. This is by no means a permanent call-up, and I'd be very surprised if Ghost is still on the Flyers roster after MacDonald and Coburn return. Based on his ice time last night, he might not even last that long.
Ghost got almost 3 minutes of PP time on the second unit in MacDonald's spot, but played less that 10 minutes at even strength. This was several minutes less than any other Flyers defensemen. Surely part of that is easing him into his first real NHL game, but Flyers fans shouldn't be under any delusions that Ghost figures to be a key player for the Flyers anytime soon.
Until the inevitable recall to the AHL happens, I'll just enjoy seeing a glimpse of the Flyers future. Even if it's just a few games, I expect Ghost to make a few tantalizing plays. You could say this Ghost sighting will be like so many other ghost sightings; ephemeral, but intriguing.
The real noteworthy thing about last night's game was the debut of Shayne Gostisbehere. I've seen "Ghost" play a handful of times (including the NCAA championship game last year in person), and he is a very exciting player. Fast, sleek, skilled, and aggressive on offense. He is, however, still far from being a complete NHL defensemen. He's going to have to learn to pick his spots carefully in the fast-paced NHL game, and in terms of raw physical strength it is not an exaggeration to say that he would be one of the weakest defensemen in the NHL.
Hextall has been telling everyone who will listen that he prefers to let young players develop slowly in the lower ranks. Morin and Ghost looked pretty good in the preseason; good enough that in years past Clarke or Holmgren would've have kept such young talent on the roster. It wasn't enough for Hextall, who is more concerned about where these young players will in 3 years than giving this year's NHL roster an incremental boost.
Nothing has changed from that plan, and Ghost is only here because of injuries to Coburn and MacDonald. This is by no means a permanent call-up, and I'd be very surprised if Ghost is still on the Flyers roster after MacDonald and Coburn return. Based on his ice time last night, he might not even last that long.
Ghost got almost 3 minutes of PP time on the second unit in MacDonald's spot, but played less that 10 minutes at even strength. This was several minutes less than any other Flyers defensemen. Surely part of that is easing him into his first real NHL game, but Flyers fans shouldn't be under any delusions that Ghost figures to be a key player for the Flyers anytime soon.
Until the inevitable recall to the AHL happens, I'll just enjoy seeing a glimpse of the Flyers future. Even if it's just a few games, I expect Ghost to make a few tantalizing plays. You could say this Ghost sighting will be like so many other ghost sightings; ephemeral, but intriguing.
Friday, October 24, 2014
Positive Steps
After an 0-2-2 start, just about anything would be an improvement. A 2-1-0 road trip against quality teams however is a success under any circumstance.
I already wrote about all the good to take from the Dallas game. Since then, the Flyers were thoroughly worked over by Chicago, and had a nice win over Pittsburgh.
My first takeaway is that there is still a considerable chasm in quality between the Flyers and a true cup contender like Chicago. The Flyers simply couldn't keep up.
The second takeaway is that the East is generally well behind the West. The Penguins may ultimately be one of the better teams in the East, and the Flyers simply beat 'em. The Flyers have a great record in Pittsburgh, and sometimes rivalry games have a life of their own outside general team trends, but the conclusion I lean towards is that the Flyers can make noise in a mediocre Eastern Conference.
Already with the Trade Rumors:
There is already some fleeting trade talk around the Flyers, principally around Brayden Schenn. While there are no specifics to consider at this point, I can make some general comments about Schenn.
I haven't been impressed with the way he is developing the last few years, and it appears the Flyers aren't either. When they acquired what many seemed to rank as one of the best prospects in hockey, I think the Flyers expected to get a high quality second-line center, if not a guy who could be the #1 for many teams.
Right now, I think there is some question is if Schenn can even be a second line center. He gets some chances, he pops up in good places in the offensive zone, but he rarely makes a significant contribution scoring or creating for others.
While Schenn is off to a bad start this season, underwhelming on Giroux's wing and on the top PP unit, it's too early to cash him out. It's not impossible that he find his niche as a second line player, and it's still early days of the season. What should make Schenn sweat long term is if Couturier shows offensive ability this season, and Laughton keeps killing it in the AHL. At that point there is no need for under-performing young center on the club.
I already wrote about all the good to take from the Dallas game. Since then, the Flyers were thoroughly worked over by Chicago, and had a nice win over Pittsburgh.
My first takeaway is that there is still a considerable chasm in quality between the Flyers and a true cup contender like Chicago. The Flyers simply couldn't keep up.
The second takeaway is that the East is generally well behind the West. The Penguins may ultimately be one of the better teams in the East, and the Flyers simply beat 'em. The Flyers have a great record in Pittsburgh, and sometimes rivalry games have a life of their own outside general team trends, but the conclusion I lean towards is that the Flyers can make noise in a mediocre Eastern Conference.
Already with the Trade Rumors:
There is already some fleeting trade talk around the Flyers, principally around Brayden Schenn. While there are no specifics to consider at this point, I can make some general comments about Schenn.
I haven't been impressed with the way he is developing the last few years, and it appears the Flyers aren't either. When they acquired what many seemed to rank as one of the best prospects in hockey, I think the Flyers expected to get a high quality second-line center, if not a guy who could be the #1 for many teams.
Right now, I think there is some question is if Schenn can even be a second line center. He gets some chances, he pops up in good places in the offensive zone, but he rarely makes a significant contribution scoring or creating for others.
While Schenn is off to a bad start this season, underwhelming on Giroux's wing and on the top PP unit, it's too early to cash him out. It's not impossible that he find his niche as a second line player, and it's still early days of the season. What should make Schenn sweat long term is if Couturier shows offensive ability this season, and Laughton keeps killing it in the AHL. At that point there is no need for under-performing young center on the club.
Sunday, October 19, 2014
A Win!!
Last year the Flyers' start was so bad they fired the coach and began a mid-season philosophy change. Now that Berube's been here for a year and had the whole offseason and preseason, that wasn't supposed to happen again this year. Still, watching last night's win over Dallas, I felt like I was watching a different team than the first four games of this season.
In the first period Berube could be seen chiding Simmonds on the bench after a turnover high in the offensive zone, attempting a criss-crossing drop-pass play. That set the tone for the rest of the game, as the Flyers worked nearly exclusively along the wall in the offensive zone, and quickly turning the puck towards the net after a successful cycle. It was a significant change from the first few games which saw a lot of attempted finesse plays, and centering/square passes to no one in particular.
Although conceding 5 goals is no one's idea of an ideal performance, I think last night demonstrated the foundation of how this year's squad is to win hockey games; simple, low risk cycles in the offensive zone; defensemen getting the puck on the net; momentum changing power play performances; and the top line answering the bell in clutch time.
It's not exactly razzle-dazzle stuff, or the possession hockey that you would see from the Sedin twins or Pavel Datsyuk, but it may be the most effective formula for the talent the Flyers possess. They don't have the horses to play fast, possession hockey, but you need to work with the team you have even if it's not the one you may want.
The Bruins win playing the same type of game. Their puck support is always solid, and many of their goals stem from simple point shots with traffic in front of the net, creating deflection and rebound opportunities. Additionally, it's hockey longtime Flyers fans will know well, and it produced the Flyers most exciting game of the young season.
The tough road trip is just beginning. There are still many injury and performance issues to straighten out, but I think their first win last night provided a real building block going forward.
In the first period Berube could be seen chiding Simmonds on the bench after a turnover high in the offensive zone, attempting a criss-crossing drop-pass play. That set the tone for the rest of the game, as the Flyers worked nearly exclusively along the wall in the offensive zone, and quickly turning the puck towards the net after a successful cycle. It was a significant change from the first few games which saw a lot of attempted finesse plays, and centering/square passes to no one in particular.
Although conceding 5 goals is no one's idea of an ideal performance, I think last night demonstrated the foundation of how this year's squad is to win hockey games; simple, low risk cycles in the offensive zone; defensemen getting the puck on the net; momentum changing power play performances; and the top line answering the bell in clutch time.
It's not exactly razzle-dazzle stuff, or the possession hockey that you would see from the Sedin twins or Pavel Datsyuk, but it may be the most effective formula for the talent the Flyers possess. They don't have the horses to play fast, possession hockey, but you need to work with the team you have even if it's not the one you may want.
The Bruins win playing the same type of game. Their puck support is always solid, and many of their goals stem from simple point shots with traffic in front of the net, creating deflection and rebound opportunities. Additionally, it's hockey longtime Flyers fans will know well, and it produced the Flyers most exciting game of the young season.
The tough road trip is just beginning. There are still many injury and performance issues to straighten out, but I think their first win last night provided a real building block going forward.
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