- Editorials
- Medvedev Starting Strong
- MacDonald Waived, but Defense Still Not Settled
- B. Schenn to Blues Rumor Re-Surfaces
- Hakstol Evolution Begins
- Teams to Call about MacDonald and Schenn
- Phantoms
- Game Stat Analysis
- L v Lightning, 3-2
- L v Panthers, 7-1
- W v Panther, 1-0
- [W v Hawks, 3-0]
- L v Stars, 2-1
- W v Bruins, 5-4
- W v Rangers, 3-2
- L v Sabres, 3-2
- [L v Devils, 4-1]
- [L v Sabres, 3-1]
Opinions on NHL topics of the moment, but mostly on the Flyers.
Monday, November 2, 2015
October Post Roundup
Here are my posts for the month of October at Broadstreetbuzz.com .
Sunday, October 11, 2015
Belated Season Predictions
Yes, yes, the season has started. I suppose that makes these picks null and void to some, but I'm not sure how much the first two games of the season will tell you anyway. Mostly I just want to have these written down somewhere so I can look back at them at the end of the season and see how horribly wrong I was.
Metro Division
1. NY Rangers
2. Washington
3. Pittsburgh
4. Columbus
5. NY Islanders
6. Philadelphia
7. Carolina
8. New Jersey
Atlantic Division
1. Tampa Bay
2. Detroit
3. Montreal
4. Ottawa
5. Florida
6. Boston
7. Buffalo
8. Toronto
Central Division
1. Minnesota
2. St. Louis
3. Chicago
4. Winnipeg
5. Nashville
6. Dallas
7. Colorado
Pacific Division
1. Anaheim
2. Calgary
3. San Jose
4. Los Angeles
5. Vancouver
6. Edmonton
7. Arizona
The hard picks were Metro 3-5, and really the entire central division. I feel like 2-5 in the central is a crapshoot.
Metro Division
1. NY Rangers
2. Washington
3. Pittsburgh
4. Columbus
5. NY Islanders
6. Philadelphia
7. Carolina
8. New Jersey
Atlantic Division
1. Tampa Bay
2. Detroit
3. Montreal
4. Ottawa
5. Florida
6. Boston
7. Buffalo
8. Toronto
Central Division
1. Minnesota
2. St. Louis
3. Chicago
4. Winnipeg
5. Nashville
6. Dallas
7. Colorado
Pacific Division
1. Anaheim
2. Calgary
3. San Jose
4. Los Angeles
5. Vancouver
6. Edmonton
7. Arizona
The hard picks were Metro 3-5, and really the entire central division. I feel like 2-5 in the central is a crapshoot.
Thursday, October 1, 2015
Monthly Post Recap
In the month of September, I wrote the following pieces over at Broad Street Buzz about the Flyers.
Also, I'm still doing a Flyers flipboard magazine of news links. It's here.
- Steve Mason Can't Get No Respect
- AHL the Best Place for Ghost...For Now
- Flyers Bounce-Back Players and What to Expect
- Figuring Out the Schenn Brothers Future in Philadelphia
- 3 Gagne Playoff Highlights to Remembers as he Retires
- The Top 20 Flyers Nicknames and Slogans
Also, I'm still doing a Flyers flipboard magazine of news links. It's here.
Tuesday, September 1, 2015
Post Roundup
Here is a round-up of my posts over at Broad Street Buzz the last several weeks.
I'm also experimenting with a Flipboard Flyers magazine, posting content to it. Check it out here.
- Sam Gagner the Flyers' Next Rehab Project
- The Flyers' All-Time 10 Best Goal Scorers
- The Best Flyers Team that Didn't Win the Cup
- Big Hitters in the Lineup Now that Rinaldo is gone
- No Sign of Imminent Brayden Schenn Offensive Breakout
- Brainstorming 3v3 Combos for This Year
- 2015-16 Season Prediction
I'm also experimenting with a Flipboard Flyers magazine, posting content to it. Check it out here.
Monday, July 20, 2015
Broad Street Buzz
I will now be writing over at Broad Street Buzz.
I'll keep this blog up over here, maybe still do some posts here, but most of my writing will now be over there.
So go read my first post there!
http://broadstreetbuzz.com/2015/07/20/philadelphia-flyers-gagner-flyers-next-rehabilitation-project/
I'll keep this blog up over here, maybe still do some posts here, but most of my writing will now be over there.
So go read my first post there!
http://broadstreetbuzz.com/2015/07/20/philadelphia-flyers-gagner-flyers-next-rehabilitation-project/
Thursday, July 16, 2015
Gagner vs. Voracek
With the news that the Flyers will be keeping Sam Gagner on the roster, I thought it would be worthwhile to try and feel out some reasonable expectations for him this season. The easiest place to begin is to compare him to Jake Voracek.
Gagner and Voracek are the same age, and were taken #6 and #7 respectively in the 2007 NHL draft. For quite a while they were regarded about equally. Take a look at their points/game to this point in their NHL careers.
Gagner immediately was promoted to the NHL and had a pretty good season (his second highest points/minute in career, in fact). After that, the players tracked very closely for the next 4 years.
Things really took off for Voracek in his second full season with the Flyers, in the strike shortened year. Still, many would probably say they were still closely comparable, as evidenced by their contracts. In his breakout season, Voracek was in the first year of a 4 year deal that pays him $4.25m/year (this upcoming season is the last season of this contract). After that same season, the Oilers signed Gagner to a deal that paid him $4.8m/year. Maybe the Oilers were foolish, and Voracek would've cashed in on the big year a bit, but it still shows their general respect level around the league were similar.
Things really went off the rails for Gagner in 2013-2014, as he registered a career worst 37 points, and had the second worst plus/minus on the team. This resulted in the Oilers casting him off, ultimately landing arriving in Arizona via Tampa Bay. His stats didn't improve much last season in the desert, although to be fair he was the top scoring forward on a team with no talent up front.
There aren't a lot of indicators that Gagner is due for a bounce-back season this year with the Flyers. He does however fill a need for the Flyers, as in my opinion their top off-season need was skill on the wings. Gagner and the Flyers must hope that a permanent move to the wing and the change of scenery to Philadelphia will reinvigorate his career. The Flyers are probably hoping for 45-50 points from him, and anything above that will be a bonus.
Maybe the Flyers can make it three in a row on reclamation projects; Mason, Del Zotto, then Gagner.
Del Zotto Contract
Speaking of Del Zotto, it was announced today that the Flyers re-signed Michael Del Zotto. He was due for an arbitration hearing next week.
The details of the deal is that it's a 2 year deal, at a cap hit of $3.875/year. I don't love the deal, but I don't hate it either. I'm not completely sold on Del Zotto's all around game, but the guy deserves credit. He came in on a put-up-or-shut-up one year deal, and scored 10 goals and 32 points in 64 games. I was expecting his deal to be between $3.5 and 4 million, although I had lingering fears of a higher cap hit or a long term. With a 2-year deal, the Flyers aren't married to him long term, which is needed flexibility with all the young defensemen the Flyers have coming up.
The Flyers now have around $300k and change of cap space, if you include Manning on the squad. They would get back $625k if they send him down to the AHL.
Gagner and Voracek are the same age, and were taken #6 and #7 respectively in the 2007 NHL draft. For quite a while they were regarded about equally. Take a look at their points/game to this point in their NHL careers.
Things really took off for Voracek in his second full season with the Flyers, in the strike shortened year. Still, many would probably say they were still closely comparable, as evidenced by their contracts. In his breakout season, Voracek was in the first year of a 4 year deal that pays him $4.25m/year (this upcoming season is the last season of this contract). After that same season, the Oilers signed Gagner to a deal that paid him $4.8m/year. Maybe the Oilers were foolish, and Voracek would've cashed in on the big year a bit, but it still shows their general respect level around the league were similar.
Things really went off the rails for Gagner in 2013-2014, as he registered a career worst 37 points, and had the second worst plus/minus on the team. This resulted in the Oilers casting him off, ultimately landing arriving in Arizona via Tampa Bay. His stats didn't improve much last season in the desert, although to be fair he was the top scoring forward on a team with no talent up front.
There aren't a lot of indicators that Gagner is due for a bounce-back season this year with the Flyers. He does however fill a need for the Flyers, as in my opinion their top off-season need was skill on the wings. Gagner and the Flyers must hope that a permanent move to the wing and the change of scenery to Philadelphia will reinvigorate his career. The Flyers are probably hoping for 45-50 points from him, and anything above that will be a bonus.
Maybe the Flyers can make it three in a row on reclamation projects; Mason, Del Zotto, then Gagner.
Del Zotto Contract
Speaking of Del Zotto, it was announced today that the Flyers re-signed Michael Del Zotto. He was due for an arbitration hearing next week.
The details of the deal is that it's a 2 year deal, at a cap hit of $3.875/year. I don't love the deal, but I don't hate it either. I'm not completely sold on Del Zotto's all around game, but the guy deserves credit. He came in on a put-up-or-shut-up one year deal, and scored 10 goals and 32 points in 64 games. I was expecting his deal to be between $3.5 and 4 million, although I had lingering fears of a higher cap hit or a long term. With a 2-year deal, the Flyers aren't married to him long term, which is needed flexibility with all the young defensemen the Flyers have coming up.
The Flyers now have around $300k and change of cap space, if you include Manning on the squad. They would get back $625k if they send him down to the AHL.
Sunday, June 28, 2015
A Productive Weekend
I have to think the Flyers will be pretty pleased the way this draft weekend turned out. Predicting the draft is usually a fool's errand, as teams' true preferences are never known and one trade can have large domino effects. All indications, however, is that the Flyers got their man.
Ivan Provorov
Last week, I tweeted an article about how the Flyers really wanted Provorov. It also looked like the Flyers were interested in trading up to assure they secured Provorov. After a few edgy moments where the Devils could've once again been the thorn in the Flyers side, the Devils took Zacha with the #6 pick, leaving Provorov available for the Flyers at #7.
With Provorov now in the fold, the Flyers have a second defensemen in the system who projects as a top pair NHLer. The Flyers have had Morin, Ghost and Hagg in the system (along with lesser prospects like Manning, Alt, etc...), but none of those guys really project as defensive corps cornerstones. The ceiling is much higher for Sanheim and Provorov, and Provorov is probably now the best prospect in the system.
The scouting reports on Provorov say he could be a little taller (he's only 6'1"), and that he doesn't have great top end speed. Aside from that, he can pretty do much the rest. He's a good skater who has a knack for controlling the game. He is a threat to score on the PP, will kill penalties, and can answer the bell physically when appropriate. He says his best asset is his hockey sense, likening himself to Lidstrom. I've seen him compared to Mark Giordano as well. Here's his best goal, and some scouting reports (1, 2, 3).
I'm going to presume he won't be on the Flyers this coming season until I hear something else, so until he arrives I need to get used to saying pro-VOR-ov, not PROV-or-ov.
Travis Konecny
One also has to think the Flyers will be pretty pleased with their second first round selection, Travis Konecny. They liked him enough to trade up a few spots seeing that he was still available late in the first round.
Before the season, he was often seen as a top-10 pick, but his draft status fell a bit after a poor first half of the junior season playing through a concussion, and a very deep draft class. As it was, he entered the draft ranked #14 by central scouting.
I suppose it could be said he slipped a little bit in this draft, but in the Flyers favor. His size works against him (he's 5'9" or 5'10"), and TSN says his skating needs to improve. That is odd, because other scouting reports praise his skating, and an OHL coaches poll rated him the best skater in the eastern conference of the OHL.
Either way, he's a skilled and spirited forward. He's generally a team leader wherever he plays (captain of OHL team and Canada's U-18 squard, McGuire award for player who 'best exemplifies the commitment to excellence through strength of character, competitiveness and athleticism'), and won MVP of the OHL top prospects game. He finished the season strong (.87/ppg in 1st half of season, 1.4/ppg in 2nd half), including 10 points in 5 playoff games. Check out this goal, and this assist.
Rest of Draft
I'd be talking out of my ass to say anything qualitative about the Flyers remaining 8 picks. All I can really say is that the Flyers used them to stock the cupboard in areas of need, forward and goal.
Grossmann Trade
As soon as the draft was over, the Flyers traded Nick Grossmann in a salary cap move. Trading Grossmann should not be a surprise. They also sent Chris Pronger's contract over, in return for Sam Gagner. On the surface, the Flyers send over $8.421m in cap dollars, and take back $3.2m. It's not quite that simple though, because the Flyers will retain $500k of Grossman's cap hit, and the Pronger's cap hit was always subject to long term injured reserve exceptions. If you simply assumed the Flyers could claim an exception for the full amount of Pronger's contract (a dubious assumption), this trade actually HURTS the Flyers cap situation (Grossmann $3.5 < Grossmann $0.5 + Gagner $3.2). As it is, this trade will save the Flyers the LTIR gymnastics, which aren't always so simple.
Now the Flyers have about $64m and change committed to next season's roster (out of $71.4m salary ceiling), although they still need a backup goalie, a contract for Del Zotto, and another forward or two. It is also not a sure thing Gagner sticks around.
Gagner is a player of some talent, as he was drafted sixth in 2007 (one pick before Jake Voracek). His career looked to be building, as he recorded an 8 point game in 2012, and scored 38 points in 48 games in 2012-2013. The last two seasons have been a disappointment. He is now nominally on his 4th team in 15 months, and it will be 5 if the Flyers send him on. He is on the verge of becoming tainted goods in the NHL.
The Flyers could buy him out, or trade him. The Coyotes GM has recently stated that he doesn't think Gagner has what it takes to be an NHL center, so his NHL career may hinge on his ability to transition to the wing. That should be okay with the Flyers, as they have centers to spare. Gagner was not on he waiver wire today in preparation for a buyout, so we'll have to wait and see how this story ends.
Other Moves Around the League
-The Flames picked up Dougie Hamilton for barely more picks than they would have received anyway had he simply walked. It looks like a steal to me, and a tough one to figure out for Boston, particularly after seeing how they used those picks.
-The Kings are in the process of buying out Richards at a costly cap hit that will last for 10 years. LA GM Lombardi has called his decision to give Richards a second chance, instead of buying him out with no cap penalty last summer, the worst decision of his career. Anybody still have doubts about that Richards trade a few years ago?
-The Rangers traded Cam Talbot for 2nd, 3rd, and 7th picks. Earlier, it had been reported that the Rangers had turned down offers of a 1st round pick, or 2 2nd round picks. Sounds like the Rangers mishandled that one a bit.
Ivan Provorov
Last week, I tweeted an article about how the Flyers really wanted Provorov. It also looked like the Flyers were interested in trading up to assure they secured Provorov. After a few edgy moments where the Devils could've once again been the thorn in the Flyers side, the Devils took Zacha with the #6 pick, leaving Provorov available for the Flyers at #7.
With Provorov now in the fold, the Flyers have a second defensemen in the system who projects as a top pair NHLer. The Flyers have had Morin, Ghost and Hagg in the system (along with lesser prospects like Manning, Alt, etc...), but none of those guys really project as defensive corps cornerstones. The ceiling is much higher for Sanheim and Provorov, and Provorov is probably now the best prospect in the system.
The scouting reports on Provorov say he could be a little taller (he's only 6'1"), and that he doesn't have great top end speed. Aside from that, he can pretty do much the rest. He's a good skater who has a knack for controlling the game. He is a threat to score on the PP, will kill penalties, and can answer the bell physically when appropriate. He says his best asset is his hockey sense, likening himself to Lidstrom. I've seen him compared to Mark Giordano as well. Here's his best goal, and some scouting reports (1, 2, 3).
I'm going to presume he won't be on the Flyers this coming season until I hear something else, so until he arrives I need to get used to saying pro-VOR-ov, not PROV-or-ov.
Travis Konecny
One also has to think the Flyers will be pretty pleased with their second first round selection, Travis Konecny. They liked him enough to trade up a few spots seeing that he was still available late in the first round.
Before the season, he was often seen as a top-10 pick, but his draft status fell a bit after a poor first half of the junior season playing through a concussion, and a very deep draft class. As it was, he entered the draft ranked #14 by central scouting.
I suppose it could be said he slipped a little bit in this draft, but in the Flyers favor. His size works against him (he's 5'9" or 5'10"), and TSN says his skating needs to improve. That is odd, because other scouting reports praise his skating, and an OHL coaches poll rated him the best skater in the eastern conference of the OHL.
Either way, he's a skilled and spirited forward. He's generally a team leader wherever he plays (captain of OHL team and Canada's U-18 squard, McGuire award for player who 'best exemplifies the commitment to excellence through strength of character, competitiveness and athleticism'), and won MVP of the OHL top prospects game. He finished the season strong (.87/ppg in 1st half of season, 1.4/ppg in 2nd half), including 10 points in 5 playoff games. Check out this goal, and this assist.
Rest of Draft
I'd be talking out of my ass to say anything qualitative about the Flyers remaining 8 picks. All I can really say is that the Flyers used them to stock the cupboard in areas of need, forward and goal.
Grossmann Trade
As soon as the draft was over, the Flyers traded Nick Grossmann in a salary cap move. Trading Grossmann should not be a surprise. They also sent Chris Pronger's contract over, in return for Sam Gagner. On the surface, the Flyers send over $8.421m in cap dollars, and take back $3.2m. It's not quite that simple though, because the Flyers will retain $500k of Grossman's cap hit, and the Pronger's cap hit was always subject to long term injured reserve exceptions. If you simply assumed the Flyers could claim an exception for the full amount of Pronger's contract (a dubious assumption), this trade actually HURTS the Flyers cap situation (Grossmann $3.5 < Grossmann $0.5 + Gagner $3.2). As it is, this trade will save the Flyers the LTIR gymnastics, which aren't always so simple.
Now the Flyers have about $64m and change committed to next season's roster (out of $71.4m salary ceiling), although they still need a backup goalie, a contract for Del Zotto, and another forward or two. It is also not a sure thing Gagner sticks around.
Gagner is a player of some talent, as he was drafted sixth in 2007 (one pick before Jake Voracek). His career looked to be building, as he recorded an 8 point game in 2012, and scored 38 points in 48 games in 2012-2013. The last two seasons have been a disappointment. He is now nominally on his 4th team in 15 months, and it will be 5 if the Flyers send him on. He is on the verge of becoming tainted goods in the NHL.
The Flyers could buy him out, or trade him. The Coyotes GM has recently stated that he doesn't think Gagner has what it takes to be an NHL center, so his NHL career may hinge on his ability to transition to the wing. That should be okay with the Flyers, as they have centers to spare. Gagner was not on he waiver wire today in preparation for a buyout, so we'll have to wait and see how this story ends.
Other Moves Around the League
-The Flames picked up Dougie Hamilton for barely more picks than they would have received anyway had he simply walked. It looks like a steal to me, and a tough one to figure out for Boston, particularly after seeing how they used those picks.
-The Kings are in the process of buying out Richards at a costly cap hit that will last for 10 years. LA GM Lombardi has called his decision to give Richards a second chance, instead of buying him out with no cap penalty last summer, the worst decision of his career. Anybody still have doubts about that Richards trade a few years ago?
-The Rangers traded Cam Talbot for 2nd, 3rd, and 7th picks. Earlier, it had been reported that the Rangers had turned down offers of a 1st round pick, or 2 2nd round picks. Sounds like the Rangers mishandled that one a bit.
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