Monthly Post Recap

In the month of September, I wrote the following pieces over at Broad Street Buzz about the Flyers.

• Steve Mason Can't Get No Respect
• AHL the Best Place for Ghost...For Now
• Flyers Bounce-Back Players and What to Expect
• Figuring Out the Schenn Brothers Future in Philadelphia
• 3 Gagne Playoff Highlights to Remembers as he Retires
• The Top 20 Flyers Nicknames and Slogans

Also, I'm still doing a Flyers flipboard magazine of news links.  It's here.

Flyers Add Mobile Russian Dman

For the second time this week, I’ve had to do some serious googling to figure out who the Flyers just added.   While the Flyers were previously rumored to be interested in a young Russian defensemen (Nikita Zaitsev), they went ahead and signed a veteran to 1 year, $3 million deal.

Yevgeni Medvedev is 32 year old, 6’3” defensemen.  Eliteprospects.com says: "[he's] a large, yet very mobile and smooth skating defensemen...he sees the ice well and has good hockey sense...he can pass really well but also possesses a good shot...could play a more physical and aggressive game given his size."  Maybe the Flyers could use him a shootout too!

A large, yet very mobile and smooth skating defenseman. Medvedev sees the ice well and has good hockey sense. He can pass really well, but also possesses a hard shot.

Could play a more physical and aggressive game given his size. - See more at: http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=16728#sthash.doOY8WLJ.dpuf

He's been a regular at AK Bars Kazan the last 8 years.  He’s won two championships there, and has been a KHL all-star selection the last 3 years.  He’s also been a regular on the Russian national team, winning medals on their last few World Championship teams, as well as playing in Sochi.  On the Sochi squad, Medvedev was their #3 defensemen in terms of ice time, behind Andrei Markov and just barely behind Slava Voynov, but ahead of NHL regulars Fedor Tyutin and Nikita Nikitin.

It appears that he is a well-regarded, mobile defensemen.  The big question for him will be adjusting to the smaller NHL rink and the more physical game, as he spent his whole career in Russia.  If he can do that, he will likely be a top-4 defensemen next season.

This leaves the Flyers with more defensemen than they need.  Presuming they re-sign Del Zotto, they’ll have 9 defensemen.
-Del Zotto
-Streit
-MacDonald
-Schenn
-Schultz
-Grossmann
-Manning
-Medvedev
-Gudas

This list doesn’t even include all their young defensemen such as Gostisbehere, Morin, Hagg or Sanheim.  For the moment, I’d have to presume that Ghost, Morin and Hagg will all be in the AHL next season as they all have something to gain by more time there, and the Flyers have no room for them.  Sanheim had a fantastic season last year, so I’m not sure he has much to gain from another year in junior (and by rule he can’t play in the AHL), but Hextall doesn’t seem inclined to rush any 19-year-olds.

So what to do with all these defensemen?  The Flyers will almost certainly trade at least one.  That should be either Schenn or Grossmann.  The Flyers have no need for two big, slow, stay at home defensemen.  I’m just not sure which one.  Schenn is younger but less reliable, and both players will be free agents after this season.  Schenn is also one of the only right hand shots on defense.

If the Flyers send Manning back down and ship out Schenn/Grossmann, they're left with a 7-deep corps with which they can enter the season.  If however, they still are interested in Zaitsev, or want Manning to stick, they’ll be back up to an unwieldy 8.  In such case, there is no obvious answer as to what the right move would be to ship someone else out.

Still Waiting

So a new blog post from me has finally come.  A first victory for the Flyers this season, has not.

Flyers fans, ever the patient bunch, are likely tempted to jump off a bridge right now.  The start of 0-2-2 is very worrying, but I won't declare them an awful team just yet.

My main fallback on this point is that, as I ran the numbers last year, between November and March 26 the Flyers were the 5th best team in the NHL.  This team is basically the same squad, minus Timonen and Hartnell.

The Flyers took a lot of flack in the offseason as they appeared to do nothing but make themselves weaker.  They traded Hartnell, and Timonen went down with a devastating injury.  In addition, Steve Mason is still not well respected around the league as an above-average starting goalie.

Four games into the season, the critics were right.  With #HartnellDown the team has no quality LW, Mason looked shaky, and the defense was inept.  Last year a slow start was forgivable due to Giroux's injury and the coaching change.  This was why I was willing to look at the standings from November 1 on and wipe away October.  The Flyers do not deserve that leniency this year.

An alternative view of things is that the Flyers can only win if Giroux is playing at an MVP level and the power play is pouring in goals.  Last year, the Flyers had the worst 5v5 goal differential of all playoff teams.  This year the power play is looking solid, although they still haven't really found a replacement for Hartnell's high slot role on the number one unit.  That is a long term worry, but the big thing is the 5v5 play has gone from average to awful.  They'll never be a juggernaut there with this roster, but they have to get back to average, and that fact may hinge upon Giroux finding superlative form.


Miscellaneous Notes:
-Simmonds is currently playing at a level that I never saw him reaching.  5 goals in 4 games, and showing an offensive poise I didn't expect.  He's always been a streaky scorer, but I daresay this is more than a hot streak with a few consecutive bang-in goals.

-The Schenn brothers have been very disappointing.  Luke Schenn is staring at a league worst -6 rating, and Brayden has not made an offensive impression.  Personally, I think Luke's +/- reflects a lot of goals that I wouldn't blame him for, and that Luke could be a serviceable player with the right partner in the right role.  As for Brayden, I am running out of patience for him to emerge as an impact offensive player.  That he lasted less than 2 games on the wing with Giroux and Voracek is his failure.

-Bellemare has looked pretty good to me.  He skates smoothly and thinks fast, which will get him far.  Like Raffl, he needs a few dozen games on the 4th line to fully adapt to the NHL.

-Lecavalier has also looked impressive to me.  I also thought he looked pretty good at the beginning of last season and showed some chemistry with B. Schenn before injuries really ruined his season.  It's bad timing for him to get injured now, although taking a shot off the foot shouldn't create the same kind of lingering injury that the bad back did to him last year.

Out of Sorts

0-3 last night, and 0-3 on the season.  Another pretty ugly loss last night.  The Flyers aren't getting killed or run out of the building in these losses, but they're sloppy and at times it feels futile.  Now some have turned and said "but the Flyers started 0-3 in the last lockout season, and ultimately went to the conference finals!"  The reality is that that Flyers team started 3-7-1, and after back to back 3-0 losses to Ottawa and Florida, two of the worst teams in the league at the time, Clarke traded Mark Recchi.  I doubt Holmgren has any similar tricks up his sleeve to acquire a #1 defensemen along with a player who would score 50 goals three years in a row.

What is the problem?  There are many;

-No chemistry amongst the forwards, and the chances they do get, there's no finish.  No one is shooting with confidence or showing any creativity, other than Giroux.

-Young players who played during the lockout look out of sorts.  Couturier has really struggled, and Read has been pretty invisible.  Schenn has some good moments, but not enough.

-The defense looks haggard.  Grossmann is really laboring, struggling with forecheckers, the puck, and notably getting outskated.  Timonen isn't doing much.  Schenn has been average, Mesz has been pretty good, and Coburn can only do so much himself.

-General disorganization.  Failed coverage on faceoffs has led to goals.  Failed coverage down low has led to goals.  Special teams have been terrible.  The Flyers have also been burned by bad changes.  All this in 3 games.

-Bad bounces.  It's hard to say how much is teams making their own luck, but the first period against the Devils was probably their best this season, yet they trailed 2-0 after it.  Against Buffalo, there were 3 questionable calls in the crease directly leading to goals or potential goals, and all three went in Buffalo's favor.

-Bad first periods.  The first 15 minutes against the Penguins were terrible, leading to a 2-0 hole.  Another slow start in the Buffalo game creating a 1-0 deficit, and another 2-0 hole last night.  Outscored 5-0 in the first period so far this season.


I'm not sure what the remedy is here, as Laviolette did the line shuffling prior to the New Jersey game  Maybe throw in Leighton and see if the team responds?  I think the most important thing right now is to focus on special teams, where they've been outscored 7-1 in just three games.  That is inexcusable.

Draft Weekend Recap

Indeed, the pieces on the board began to move this weekend for the Flyers.  The rumors were getting crazy on Thursday, and the Flyer were supposedly in on everyone; Nash, Parise, Ryan, Suter, Weber, and trading up in the draft.  Ultimately, the Flyers made far less daring moves.

JVR
The move that was so heavily rumored in March finally came about.  For starters, I am on board with trading JVR.  He seems like a good kid, and he has the talent, I'm just not sure I see him producing consistently.  Often the only difference between a journey-man goal scorer and a top line allstar is consistency, and I think JVR will always be a streaky player.  He's not effective playing on the outside, and he's simply not a banger at heart.  Either way, I've previously written about his development here and here.

As for the particulars on this trade, I wrote about this in March, and not much has changed since...

On paper, the trade makes a lot of sense.  It is a like-for-like trade:
-both players were very high draft picks; JVR #2 in 2007 and Schenn #5 in 2008
-both players have made some noise in the NHL, with Schenn immediately joining the big club as an 18 year old and JVR turning a lot of heads in the playoffs last year
-both players may be seen as underwhelming in their development, with Schenn's ice time down this year and JVR not building off last year's playoffs
-both players are signed to manageable long term contracts

The Flyers need defensemen, the Leafs need size up front.  The trade is merely teams trying to address an organizational need while holding their salary, youth and long term potential constant.

All that said, the devil will be in details.  Flyers fans expect Schenn and other goodies for JVR, and Leafs fan vice-versa.  A rumor I read yesterday is that it will be the Flyers who have to sweeten the pot to complete the deal, and the Leafs want Matt Read.

No thanks on that one.  If that's the case I walk away.

http://mostlyflyers.blogspot.com/2012/01/jvr-for-luke-schenn.html


The Flyers top need was a physical dman, and they now have a promising young one.  A good, simple, hockey trade without a clear "winner" in my opinion.

Bobrovsky
Like JVR, I was ready to see Bob go.  I also wrote about this the other day.  Either way, I think his most likely career path is as a backup or journeyman starter.  He will now get a chance to prove himself in Columbus that he won't get here.

The Flyers should be happy with the trade return for him.  I think his reputation around the league has sunk a little bit over the last several months, and there was no way the Flyers were going to get the kind of return the Caps got for Varlamov last year---ultimately a fairly high first round pick in a deal that shocked a lot around the league.  Still, to salvage a mid-second round pick and two 4th rounders is a good return.  The Flyers definitely benefitted from other teams snatching up backup goalie candidates in the previous week, apparently allowing the Flyers to choose between Winnpeg's offer of the #39 pick, or the #45 pick and two 4th rounders from Columbus.

Incidentally, the Flyers drafted a goalie with the #45 pick.

Draft Picks
I will not pretend to know much about who the Flyers drafted.  Regarding their first round pick, it was mildly disappointing to see them take a center without high-end potential when they have rarely picked in the first round at all the last few years and desperately need defensemen in the system.  On the other hand, this player appears very likely to actually graduate to the NHL, and the Flyers have been amazing at picking winners late in the first round (Gagne, Williams, Giroux).  Scouts say this is a very poor draft class as well.

What Next?
First, this is how I see the Flyers cap situation;

To complete this, I guessed at a value for Voracek, and plugged in a backup goalie that may not be accurate, but the salary should be.  I also plugged in Carle at $4.25, although I find it hard to believe he will sign for so little, but people keep throwing it out there.  The takeaway is that the Flyers could have about $6 million or more to throw at a top-6 forward.

I think their pursuit of Nash is now dead.  JVR and Bob were their two major trading chips to get Nash, and they have been cashed in.  Personally, I think the Columbus GM is overplaying his hand, and as teams like the Flyers move on, the offers for Nash will now begin to get worse.  I wasn't a huge fan of Nash to Philly anyway.

The two major targets the Flyers could go after is Parise or Ryan.  Again, the Flyers don't have many assets left to trade for Ryan, so I'm not seeing it.  Regarding Parise, I think the Flyers have a lot of interest and will make an offer.  I have my doubts about how they'll fare in a bidding war on the open market, however.

The conservative course is to resign Jagr and pick up a role-player for the bottom two lines for about $5 million combined.  This is probably the wisest course in my opinion.  Granted, maybe the Flyers can't resign Carle or Voracek (silence is ominous regarding his extension, I think), and then all this needs to be re-evaluated.