A Familiar Story

Another season, a familiar pattern of events.  The Flyers lost 3-1 in their opener to the Leafs, and themes of last season begin immediately this year.

First, I'll start with the positives.  Those were good debuts from Lecavalier and Streit.  I can see Streit getting a lot of points this season, and Lecavalier created a lot of chances and the only goal.  Also, Mason looked pretty good, and could not be faulted on any goal (though I do wonder if he could've done better directing the rebounds on the initial shot before the Leafs put in the rebounds for their 1st and 3rd goals).  Overall, lots of pressure from the Flyers the first 30 minutes.

Now the bad, and unfortunately none of this is new.  For all the pressure the Flyers were sustaining, only one goal.  Now Bernier played an excellent game for the Leafs, no doubt about that, but the Flyers also didn't really break down the defense.  They just had better legs at the start against a team that played an emotional game last night.  Of course, the Flyers have never been able to sustain that type of control for 60 minutes.  Once that push faded, the Flyers chances and puck possession really dried up.  And once ahead in the 3rd, the Leafs completely smothered the Flyers with vastly superior puck support and control.  The result at the end of the day was the Flyers being outscored 2-0 at 5-on-5 (the Flyers were 25th in the league in this category last year), and the Flyers came away with 0 points in a game that was tied after 2 periods (they were also awful in this category last year).

It's just one game, and the Leafs could be one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, but it is discouraging to see last season's problems immediately rear their head.

Rumor Commentary

After what has been a pretty depressing season, about which I saw little to post, it's fun to have things to wildly speculate upon!  No team does offseason crazy like the Flyers.  Maybe it hurts them in the long run, but they always put a competitive team on the ice and the moments of madness always keep it exciting for the fans.

Anyway, there's been a bunch of rumors popping up this week, and here's just a few comments.

#1 - Bryzgalov's agent says Holmgren told him Bryz won't be bought out this offseason.  Holmgren says that's BS.

I've already written a little about a Bryzgalov buyout.  I think the question is when, not if.  I previously laid out the case for doing it next summer.  Since then, I've warmed to certain scenarios for a buyout this summer.  Either way, Holmgren told Jeff Carter's agent he wouldn't be traded, and then traded him a week later.  Assuming Holmgren even gave Bryz's agent any assurances, I wouldn't put much stock in them.  I would ignore this item and say a Bryz buyout this summer is very much on the table.

#2 - The Flyers are a front runner to trade for Jonathan Bernier; possible packages include Matt Read, or Couturier+11th pick.

Bernier is a 24 year old goalie.  He was the first goalie taken in the 2006 draft, at 11 overall.  Thus far, he's been stuck behind Quick in LA.  Relatively small for a modern NHL goalie, he's very quick.  He's excelled at the AHL level, has a .912% in 62 NHL appearances, and many scouts think he's ready to try for a #1 NHL job.

He's also a RFA this year, and the Kings are tight against the cap  As a result, they are very vulnerable to an offer sheet and settling for meek draft pick compensation for losing him.  Now the Kings are aggressively trying to trade him in the next few weeks before that happens.

In a general sense, I kind of like the idea of the Flyers going into next season with Bernier and Mason, two goalies with unquestionable talent, and letting the best man win.  Neither is a sure thing after all.  The Flyers must, however, draw the line on how much they are willing to pay for him.

First, Bernier wants a chance to start.  I don't think there's many NHL teams that will trade for him and simply give him the #1 job, so an open competition with Mason might be the best he gets.  I don't think he'd be unhappy with a trade to Philly.

Second, let's throw out the package reported by Carchidi; Cooter and the 11th pick.  That is a terrible deal.

Third, the Read deal (or something like it) is reasonable.  Read is a quality player, and can play across a team's top 9.  Most likely, he's a 2/3 line wing in the NHL.  What makes him tradeable is, that while he still seems inexperienced and up-and-coming, he is 27 years old.  He's also a UFA after this season, and will be seeking a substantial raise from his current $900k deal.  I'm not sure the Flyers can accommodate that.  The problem is, the Flyers are already weak at forward, and there is no clear substitute to take his place.

Either way, the Flyers should not get sucked into a bidding war for Bernier.  If the deal is there, take it and buy out Bryz.  If not, walking away is just fine.

#3 - The Flyer are talking trade for Bobby Ryan, at a cost of Coburn and 11 pick

After some thought, I don't think this is a very good deal as presented.  It's tempting for Flyers fans to part with Coburn, as he is coming off a poor season that ended in an injury, and he carries a significant cap hit of $4.5.  What we have to remember is that he plays big minutes for the Flyers, and can flourish in the right situation.

With his size and skating, it is tempting to ask Coburn to do a lot, and I think that's where it went wrong for him this season.  He's not Matt Carle, and his slapshot looks good, but is horrendously inaccurate.  I could see him playing well with Streit though, in a simplified role.  Let Streit attack and Coburn be the anchor of the pair.  We might get to see the Coburn that looked so promising playing with Timonen a few years ago.

Furthermore, this is supposed to be a very good draft.  It seems a slam dunk for the Flyers to take a good young defensemen with the 11 pick, which is unusually high for the Flyers, but Flyers fans shouldn't count on that either given their track record of taking the best player available (which they usually deem to be a forward).  Still, the reality is that with or without Ryan, the Flyers are not cup contenders next season.  Yes, they need help at forward, but this is not the way to do it.

Bryz buyout? But when?

Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie8 JunIt's not carved in stone, but in spite of what has been said in past, I expect PHI is likely to use compliance buyout on Ilya Bryzgalov. 

Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie8 JunAlso, PHI is in market for D and may be willing to move one of their young centres - B Schenn or Couturier - for the right deal.

And with that, a whole new round of discussion began.

I've already written that a Briere buyout is likely, but I have not written anything about use of the second buyout. I think most fans want to see it used on Bryzgalov, which may be a good idea.

Bryzgalov has 7 years left at $5.66 cap hit. At this point, it's not the cap hit that's the problem, it's the contract length. That is the 9th biggest cap hit among NHL goalies, and very close to the new contracts signed by Quick and Howard. Bryz hasn't been great, but he hasn't been terrible either, and paying an experienced goalie that number isn't unreasonable. If he had a year or two left at that number, you just let him play it out.

The problem is, I don't think the Flyers want to hitch their wagon to him for the next 7 years. He hasn't been a difference maker, has problems with the local media, and perhaps his teammates. Also, no one will take that contract in a trade, leaving a buyout the only option.

(For the purposes of this post, I am going to assume the Flyers have the financial means and will to pay Bryz to go away, which would be about $1.5m/year for about a dozen years)

If the Flyers decide to buy him out, they need another goalie. Handing Mason the starting job right now would be foolish.

As far UFAs go, this offseason Nik Backstrom, Evgeni Nabokov, Mike Smith, Ray Emery and Tim Thomas are available. Next offseason, potential options might be Lundqvist, Miller, Hiller, Halak, Vokoun and Crawford. Guys like Vokoun, Nabokov, Backstrom and Thomas are old and might be available at a reasonable cap hit on a short term deal. Lundqvist and Crawford could cost a mint (if even available).

The other option is a trade. There's already some talk about the Flyers' interest in Bernier in LA. My biggest concern with that route is that the Flyers don't have too many tradeable assets, and an asset used acquiring a goalie cannot be used to acquire a defensemen. Therefore I'm not crazy about the idea of trading Read to LA, as has been floated.

I think the Flyers should give Mason a full season to see how much resources they should devote in terms of cap space and trade assets to solidify the goalie situation. if he stinks, then you do what you gotta do, but if he seizes the job, problem solved. Therefore I lean towards buying out Bryzgalov next offseason, not this offseason.

The only wrinkle to that is the Flyers want to try Nabokov short term (who is is still an above average goalie), or roll the dice with Thomas or Emery. (Hey, this discussion of Emery (1, 2) and Nabokov sounds familiar...).

So my bottom line is, I'd probably buy out Bryz next summer, but not this one.

Next up, McKenzie's second tweet....