Sunday, May 8, 2011

The Goalie Options

I've made clear my opinion that the Flyers must do something to stabilize their goaltending this offseason.  They have basically no cap space to work with, so sacrifices will have to be made.  Either way, here are the options (name, age, last season's numbers)

The most proven options
-Tomas Vokoun, 34, 22-28-5, 922 save percentage, $5.7m cap hit
Vokoun has consistently performed well for several season, compiling an impressive 924 save percentage over 4 years in Florida.  The thing is, he has been toiling for mediocre teams for years, so he's never seen the second round of the playoffs, so he may be an unproven commodity in the playoffs.  He likely will take a pay cut, but he will still cost you.  The Flyers would have to dump salary elsewhere to compete in the bidding for him, but it's doable without taking a hammer to the nucleus of the team.

Ilya Bryzgalov, 30, 36-20-10, 921 save percentage, $4.25m cap hit
-Bryzgalov is, in my opinion, the only real number one goalie available in the sense that he will command a long term, high salary contract, and should be entering the prime of his career.  Unless the Flyers move a Richards or Carter, they can't compete with those offers.  If there was no salary cap he is the guy I would target (I'm not troubled by his poor postseason this year), but that's not the world we live in.

Wild cards
-Dwayne Roloson, 41, 24-25-5, 913 save percentage, $2.5m cap hit
Roloson is old, and he looked like a career backup when he was 30.  He blossomed in Minnesota, and he keeps defying expectations, particularly this season with the Lightning.  He's got to retire sometime, but I suspect he'll keep playing as a long as teams will give him one year offers.  His price should be reasonable, and offering him a short term contract would work well for the Flyers if they want to leave the door open for Bobrovsky to seize the job in the next year or two.  This is assuming of course that the Lightning don't resign him, who may be eager to reward one of the catalysts for their season.

-Evgeni Nabokov, 35, 2010 numbers-44-16-10, 922 save percentage, $5.375/570k
Nabokov is a very interesting option.  One of the top goalies in the league for years, he recorded three straight 40 win seasons (only the 2nd time in NHL history someone has done that), then left for Russia last season.  He came back at a cut price with Detroit, but the Islanders claimed him and he didn't report.  There is some question about his contract status, but it appears the Isles will have him at their disposal this season at an appallingly low price of $570k, who presumably will be fielding offers from teams exactly like the Flyers.  Unless you think his skills fell apart by one year off, or that he is lazy and worthless, there is no doubt that he is a premium NHL performer.  The Flyers also reportedly made their best effort to sign him at the last draft, but Nabokov decided to go back to Russia, as presumably the Flyers didn't have the cap space to meet his demands.  All in all, I think the Flyers would be crazy not to take a stab at a goalie with his track record and at a price that would make him one of (if not the absolute) lowest paid goalies in the entire league.  There's also the Russian factor, being an experienced Russian-speaking NHL player for Bobrovsky to lean on.

Ray Emery, 28, 7-2, 926 save percentage, $500k
-Three years ago it was his attitude, and last year it was a career threatening hip injury (think Bo Jackson).  No one really doubts his ability, but there's always been something holding Emery back.  His comeback was impressive this season for the Ducks, though such a limited audition will mean he likely won't be able to command big dollars or a long contract.  This puts him in within the reach of the Flyers.  Are the Flyers up for another ride with Ray?  They were reportedly one of 3 teams Emery was negotiating with this spring, as discussed here.

Fading stars
-J.S. Giguere, 33, 11-11-4, 900 save percentage, $6m cap hit
Seems like a long time ago Giguere was a playoff hero for the Ducks (leading to that huge contract, which is finally expiring).  He's not that old, but hasn't performed at that high level in a few seasons.  I don't think he'll regain that form (which hasn't been seen for 3 years), and I think he should be no better than plan E or F for the Flyers.

-Marty Turco, 35, 11-11-3, 897 save percentage, $1.3m cap hit
Had several good season in Dallas, but a spotty playoff record there and is coming off a very disappointing year for Chicago.  He was supposed to be a bargain at that price--instead he lost the job to a rookie (who admittedly turned a lot of heads in the playoffs).  I see him in a similar light to the prospect of signing Giguere.

-Jose Theodore, 34, 15-11-3, 916 save percentage, $1.1m cap hit
Coming off a strong season, but nowhere near the goalie that won the Vezina in 2002 with a gaudy 931 save percentage, as that season has proved to be an anomaly.  Personally, I don't think very highly off him and feel comfortable just saying "no thanks."

-Pascal Leclaire, 28, 4-7, 908 save percentage, $3.8m cap hit
He was supposed to be a star for Columbus, being the #8 pick in 2001.  For a while he seemed on that track, but he lost his job to rookie phenom Steve Mason (who has himself faded).  He was shipped off to Ottawa with hopes of claiming the #1 job there long term, but disappointed.  The mediocrity of his last few seasons are probably enough to keep the Flyers away, though I wouldn't be shocked if he has a career revival.  I'm not really interested in the Flyers having another "hope-and-pray" goalie though.


Conclusion
I don't really like any of the fading star options, and I think the first options for the Flyers should be Roloson and Nabokov.  Both are proven winners (though aging), and both are affordable and will be on short term contracts that fit in with the Flyers hopes for Bobrovsky to be the long term solution.  Nabokov even has the Russian intangible in his favor.

If I were the Flyers, I'd be pushing hard for a trade with the Isles.  The Flyers don't have many prospects to deal to a young Isles team, but Matt Carle would be a start in trade discussions.

If the Flyers can't trade for Nabokov or the Lightning re-sign Roloson before he hits the market, I would sniff around Vokoun or consider Emery round 2.  Obviously the Flyers still like him somewhat based on their interest in February.

Lastly, the Flyers could trade from someone like Cory Schneider in Vancouver who looks very good but is likely stuck behind a big star for playing time, but that opens a can of worms of candidates and the trade assets required to complete a trade, so I won't go into that.

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