Showing posts with label coburn. Show all posts
Showing posts with label coburn. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Never a Dull Moment

I've said it before, but being a Flyers fan is just fun sometimes.  Whenever anyone of note becomes available, the Flyers are sniffing around.  Maybe always chasing the big move, the short term fix, has hampered the Flyers ability to win a cup.

Regardless of whether this is true, the Flyers are consistently one of the best teams in the NHL, and made deep cup runs in 95, 97, 2000, 2004 and 2010.  On top of that, there's always something to talk about, and rarely a forgettable season.

Tonight's signing of Lecavalier is a show-stopper and continues the tradition.

Now first, it's important to realize Lecavalier's days as a superstar are behind him.  Since his days as the #1 pick in 98, when then-TB owner naively labelled him the Michael Jordan of hockey, there's always been a superstar aura around him.  Truthfully, he only performed at that level for a brief period of time, and TB signed him up to contract with a cap hit of $7.7m/season under that spell.  Now 33, he hasn't hit 30 goals in 5 seasons.

With all the wonderful weirdness of this offseason and the compliance buyouts, the Flyers can look at him purely as a second line center.  While adding a big name forward seemed low on the priority list for the Flyers, a big issue with last season's team that no one talks about was terrible secondary scoring (meanwhile, the goaltending that everyone talks about was actually fine).  The team put a heavy burden on Couturier and Schenn to develop quickly into scoring roles, and it didn't happen last season.  This move does NOT mean they are giving up on either of them, but it does relieve that burden.  Additionally, the Flyers wanted to get bigger up front, and Lecavalier is 6'4".

Lecavalier's contract is reported to be at $4.5x5.  This is decent cap hit.  It's not without risks, going to his 38th birthday for a player who will decline over the life of deal, but consider the comparables of contending teams' second line centers.  Boston is paying Krejci $5.25m for his 33 points last year.  LA is paying Carter $5.27m for his 33 points.  Pittsburgh is paying Crosby and Malkin each ~$9m.  Lecavalier's 32 points at $4.25m looks pretty good.

Nor does this signing put the Flyers in an onerous cap position.  With some simple moves, the Flyers current cap picture looks like this:

The Flyers could easily sign a platoon goalie and put that lineup out there.

More likely some more tweaking will be done to this lineup and a defensemen will go.  The Flyers could either move Meszaros in what will basically be a salary dump, or they could try for a significant return for Coburn (and even now have the freedom throw in Schenn or Couturier now that Lecavalier is on board and Laughton is coming up).

Presuming the simpler transaction of dumping Meszaros, and running with some rumors about potential signings, the Flyers opening day lineup could very well look like this:

That lineup is clearly better than last year's team, and quite honestly better than I thought the Flyers could put together this offseason while being comfortably under the cap (although the defense is still underwhelming).  Either way, next season would be a lot of fun.

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Rumor Commentary

After what has been a pretty depressing season, about which I saw little to post, it's fun to have things to wildly speculate upon!  No team does offseason crazy like the Flyers.  Maybe it hurts them in the long run, but they always put a competitive team on the ice and the moments of madness always keep it exciting for the fans.

Anyway, there's been a bunch of rumors popping up this week, and here's just a few comments.

#1 - Bryzgalov's agent says Holmgren told him Bryz won't be bought out this offseason.  Holmgren says that's BS.

I've already written a little about a Bryzgalov buyout.  I think the question is when, not if.  I previously laid out the case for doing it next summer.  Since then, I've warmed to certain scenarios for a buyout this summer.  Either way, Holmgren told Jeff Carter's agent he wouldn't be traded, and then traded him a week later.  Assuming Holmgren even gave Bryz's agent any assurances, I wouldn't put much stock in them.  I would ignore this item and say a Bryz buyout this summer is very much on the table.

#2 - The Flyers are a front runner to trade for Jonathan Bernier; possible packages include Matt Read, or Couturier+11th pick.

Bernier is a 24 year old goalie.  He was the first goalie taken in the 2006 draft, at 11 overall.  Thus far, he's been stuck behind Quick in LA.  Relatively small for a modern NHL goalie, he's very quick.  He's excelled at the AHL level, has a .912% in 62 NHL appearances, and many scouts think he's ready to try for a #1 NHL job.

He's also a RFA this year, and the Kings are tight against the cap  As a result, they are very vulnerable to an offer sheet and settling for meek draft pick compensation for losing him.  Now the Kings are aggressively trying to trade him in the next few weeks before that happens.

In a general sense, I kind of like the idea of the Flyers going into next season with Bernier and Mason, two goalies with unquestionable talent, and letting the best man win.  Neither is a sure thing after all.  The Flyers must, however, draw the line on how much they are willing to pay for him.

First, Bernier wants a chance to start.  I don't think there's many NHL teams that will trade for him and simply give him the #1 job, so an open competition with Mason might be the best he gets.  I don't think he'd be unhappy with a trade to Philly.

Second, let's throw out the package reported by Carchidi; Cooter and the 11th pick.  That is a terrible deal.

Third, the Read deal (or something like it) is reasonable.  Read is a quality player, and can play across a team's top 9.  Most likely, he's a 2/3 line wing in the NHL.  What makes him tradeable is, that while he still seems inexperienced and up-and-coming, he is 27 years old.  He's also a UFA after this season, and will be seeking a substantial raise from his current $900k deal.  I'm not sure the Flyers can accommodate that.  The problem is, the Flyers are already weak at forward, and there is no clear substitute to take his place.

Either way, the Flyers should not get sucked into a bidding war for Bernier.  If the deal is there, take it and buy out Bryz.  If not, walking away is just fine.

#3 - The Flyer are talking trade for Bobby Ryan, at a cost of Coburn and 11 pick

After some thought, I don't think this is a very good deal as presented.  It's tempting for Flyers fans to part with Coburn, as he is coming off a poor season that ended in an injury, and he carries a significant cap hit of $4.5.  What we have to remember is that he plays big minutes for the Flyers, and can flourish in the right situation.

With his size and skating, it is tempting to ask Coburn to do a lot, and I think that's where it went wrong for him this season.  He's not Matt Carle, and his slapshot looks good, but is horrendously inaccurate.  I could see him playing well with Streit though, in a simplified role.  Let Streit attack and Coburn be the anchor of the pair.  We might get to see the Coburn that looked so promising playing with Timonen a few years ago.

Furthermore, this is supposed to be a very good draft.  It seems a slam dunk for the Flyers to take a good young defensemen with the 11 pick, which is unusually high for the Flyers, but Flyers fans shouldn't count on that either given their track record of taking the best player available (which they usually deem to be a forward).  Still, the reality is that with or without Ryan, the Flyers are not cup contenders next season.  Yes, they need help at forward, but this is not the way to do it.

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Out of Sorts

0-3 last night, and 0-3 on the season.  Another pretty ugly loss last night.  The Flyers aren't getting killed or run out of the building in these losses, but they're sloppy and at times it feels futile.  Now some have turned and said "but the Flyers started 0-3 in the last lockout season, and ultimately went to the conference finals!"  The reality is that that Flyers team started 3-7-1, and after back to back 3-0 losses to Ottawa and Florida, two of the worst teams in the league at the time, Clarke traded Mark Recchi.  I doubt Holmgren has any similar tricks up his sleeve to acquire a #1 defensemen along with a player who would score 50 goals three years in a row.

What is the problem?  There are many;

-No chemistry amongst the forwards, and the chances they do get, there's no finish.  No one is shooting with confidence or showing any creativity, other than Giroux.

-Young players who played during the lockout look out of sorts.  Couturier has really struggled, and Read has been pretty invisible.  Schenn has some good moments, but not enough.

-The defense looks haggard.  Grossmann is really laboring, struggling with forecheckers, the puck, and notably getting outskated.  Timonen isn't doing much.  Schenn has been average, Mesz has been pretty good, and Coburn can only do so much himself.

-General disorganization.  Failed coverage on faceoffs has led to goals.  Failed coverage down low has led to goals.  Special teams have been terrible.  The Flyers have also been burned by bad changes.  All this in 3 games.

-Bad bounces.  It's hard to say how much is teams making their own luck, but the first period against the Devils was probably their best this season, yet they trailed 2-0 after it.  Against Buffalo, there were 3 questionable calls in the crease directly leading to goals or potential goals, and all three went in Buffalo's favor.

-Bad first periods.  The first 15 minutes against the Penguins were terrible, leading to a 2-0 hole.  Another slow start in the Buffalo game creating a 1-0 deficit, and another 2-0 hole last night.  Outscored 5-0 in the first period so far this season.


I'm not sure what the remedy is here, as Laviolette did the line shuffling prior to the New Jersey game  Maybe throw in Leighton and see if the team responds?  I think the most important thing right now is to focus on special teams, where they've been outscored 7-1 in just three games.  That is inexcusable.

Friday, May 11, 2012

Season Review

All playoff exits feel disappointing.  Through the ups and downs, fans always convince themselves that their team can win any series.  The Flyers flame-out was sudden, but in the long view, it makes a little more sense.

At no point this season did I think the Flyers were really primed for a serious cup run.  They were too young up front, having traded away their core forwards.  Then things started going pretty well, but Pronger went down.  Without Pronger, I thought a long playoff run was precluded.

The Flyers defensive and goaltending struggles reinforced that perception, until March shutouts made me begin to think I could be wrong.  The defense showed hope, and they could score whenever they needed to.  Eventually however, the gas tank ran dry and ingrained problems caught up to them.

It was a memorable and exciting season, and I could not label this team as underachievers.  That's pretty much all you can ask for as a fan.

PLAYER REVIEWS

Forwards:
-Giroux.  The burden fell to him to step up with Carter and Richards gone, and he responded with an MVP caliber season that Richards or Carter never produced.

-Briere.  A very poor regular season, largely saved by 8 playoff goals.  His overall game never really fired on all cylinders though, even in the playoffs.

-Voracek.  His 49 points is not all that impressive, but he was a valuable player for the Flyers, and I certainly didn't see anything like conditioning or effort issues that his old CBJ coach criticized him for on the way out.  He may never break 25 goals or 65 points, but I could see him being a winger on a quality top line.

-Hartnell.  A quiet playoffs shouldn't dilute a career year, and I think he was playing hurt anyway.  Consistently energetic, physical, and showed a finishing touch I didn't think he had.  All this after a pre-season lost to health concerns and a terrible start.

-Jagr.  54 points in 73 games, veteran leadership, and the self-proclaimed "most enjoyable year" of his career.  That qualifies as a success.  Jagr did have some nagging groin issues, and his energy level fluctuated throughout the year, so it remains to be seen if he will be back.

-Schenn.  18 points in 54 games is an unimpressive line, but he improved as the season wore on, and I'd go so far as to say he was the Flyers' best player in game 1 of the Pittsburgh series.  I expect  him to take the next step in his career next year.

-Read.  He turned out to be one of the best rookies in the league.  24 goals, played everywhere on the front line, and in all situations.  Pretty much ideal.

-Simmonds.  Almost doubled his career high in goals, largely due to 11 PP goals.  He looks to be a streaky scorer going forward, as he battles and puts himself in good positions but doesn't have very soft hands, his physical initiative will make him a fan favorite.

-Talbot.  Gave the Flyers everything they could hope for.  A lunchpail player and team guy, he went from 8 goals last season with Pittsburgh to 19 this year, and he and Giroux were lethal shorthanded in the playoffs.

-Couturier.  Surpassed all expectations this season, with 13 goals and logged big minutes in the playoffs.  Remarkable for an 18 year old, I could not identify any clear deficiencies in his game.  What a draft day steal, he could be a key player for the Flyers for a long time.

-Wellwood.  Nothing spectacular, but a young, speedy player that should be an asset for bottom lines and depth next year.

-Rinaldo.  Did all that could be asked of him.  Not a high skill guy, he successfully brought a lot of energy and spark to the Flyers.  He will have to continue to work on his discipline, though in his defense, he is clearly targeted by the officials and is on the short end of a lot of marginal calls.

-JVR.  I think JVR had a very disappointing season.  Yes, he had injuries, and his point production was decent before all the injuries.  Still, I wrote that his early stat line flattered his play even before all the injuries, and there's no escaping the reality of the 11g, 13a, 43gp for a player who was supposed to score 30+ goals this year.  He was very good in game 1 against NJ, but did little else in that series.

-Shelley.  Yes, he is still on this team.

Defense:
-Timonen.  Another year of wear and tear on Timonen's body, he still was able to be the Flyers top defensemen this year.  Injuries severely limited him in the playoffs.

-Meszaros.  Was inconsistent all year, never finding the form he had most of last season.  Then his season was cut short by an injury.  Maybe next year will be a bounce back season.

-Coburn.  Unremarkable regular season, but logged huge minutes in the playoffs.

-Grossmann.  The strong, defense-first, shot-blocking defenseman the team needed.  He has bad knees though, so let's hope they hold up.

-Carle.  The team's de facto number 1 defensemen this year, covering a lot of territory and eating minutes.  A very good chance that his time as a Flyers is over, however.

-Kubina.  He could not provide the reliable veteran presence the team was looking for---too old and slow, and picked up some injuries too.  Little chance of him returning.

-Pronger.  His season never really started, and his career may be over.  It's a shame his time with the Flyers was so short-lived.

-Gustafsson.  He really made some nice strides this season, though he could struggle at times.  Skilled and smart, but undersized.  It will be interesting to see what he can do next year in extended time.

-Bourdon.  Another pleasant surprise, as his career seemed to have stalled in the minors.  Looks like he might have an NHL future yet.

-Lilja.  Seldom used in the regular season, played decently in the playoffs.  Too old and slow to play a significant role.

Goalies:
-Bryzgalov.  Things did not go as planned, though he was amazing in March.  Too inconsistent and gaffe prone, but on and off the ice.  Seemingly has some growing up to do, though a full season in Philly under his belt will help.  Expectations will remain high with his 9 year contract.  I am optimistic.

-Bobrovsky.   Started the season strong, but on the whole did not take the next step in his career this year.  Now heading into the last year of his contract with the Flyers.

Friday, March 2, 2012

Defensemen Statistical Performance

Hockey is hard sport to capture in numbers, and defensemen is probably the position that is the most difficult.  People tend to caught up in points, which makes sense, but there are other numbers out there that may be informative.  Below is a table of Flyers defensemen performance this season.
I visually separated Kubina and Grossman because those stat lines largely reflect their time on another team, so it's not apples to apples comparisons.  I also focus on the rates these players accrue stats per minute played.

Some things are obvious--Meszaros shoots a lot, Timonen limits turnovers, Grossman never shoots...etc  There are some interesting tidbits in there though.

-Coburn excels at the giveaway/takeaway balance, but he blocks very few shots and misses the net constantly on his shots.

-Of the Flyers' regulars, Carle has the highest percentage of shots on net, and blocks the most shots.  That is unexpected.

-Kubina and Grossman block more shots than any Flyers defensemen.  That may be inflated by their time away from the Flyers, but it is noteworthy.

-Meszaros and Coburn have the most takeaways, but those two also are the worst shot blockers.  This makes sense with Meszaros' active game, but is surprising with Coburn who plays more passively and does not produce offense.

Sunday, November 13, 2011

The Numbers on Coburn Extension

Last week Coburn signed a $4.5x4 contract with the Flyers.  He was due to be an unrestricted free agent this offseason.  Good deal?  Let's see.

Coburn is currently 26 years old, and skates very well for a man his size, 6'5".  However he doesn't play as big as his size might suggest.  His production has declined steadily the last few seasons, down to 2g, 16a last season.  He plays about 21 minutes a night.

What are comparable free agent defensemen contracts signed in the last two years?

Offseason 2010:
Zbynek Michalek - 27, $4x5, ~20 point, ~22 minutes/game
Sergei Gonchar - 36, $5.5x3, high scoring, ~23 minutes/game
Paul Martin - 29, $5x5, ~30 points, 23/24 minutes/game
Derek Morris - 31, $2.75x4, mid 20s points, ~21 minutes/game
Toni Lydman - 32, $3x3, low 20s points, 19-22 minutes/game

Offseason 2011:
Jonathan Ericsson - 26, $3.25x3, high teens points, high teens minutes
Roman Hamrlik - 36, $3.5x3, low 30s points, ~22 minutes

Really the closest comparison to Coburn are the contracts of Michalek and Martin, and Coburn's contract splits the difference between the two.  The Flyers basically paid prevailing market prices, no more, no less.  Fans tend to hear a number, and subjectively judge whether Player A is "__ million dollar defensemen."  That's not really connected to reality.  Coburn has his limitations, but he can play significant minutes and be comfortable on the second pair, and $4-5 million is the price for that right now.

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

The Most Interesting Offseason in the World

The free agent frenzy is quieting down now, and you can take stock of most things.

The big point overall is that UFAs this year made a killing.  Players were getting 30% more than a comparable player would've gotten 2 years ago.  I think it's mostly due the to fact that it was a generally weak free agent group coming in a year where the salary cap increased more than expected.  And then you have a team like Florida spending money like a drunken sailor in a whorehouse on decent but unspectacular players simply to get to the cap floor that compounded the perverted market.

For the Flyers, the Extreme Makeover continues.  Out with the Canadian golden boys, in with puck possession eastern europeans, a Russian goalie, and a black guy.  Despite a bunch of rumors of something bigger like Brad Richards, Stamkos, or a big trade, the Flyers mostly stuck to the expected game plan. Mostly.

The most "predictable" move was adding a 3rd/4th line character guy.  The Flyers needed some experience in that area, and the team has commented that they need a "new Laperriere" to provide leadership and character in that role.  Max Talbot seems to fit that bill, the only surprise being that he comes from the Penguins.

Speaking of the Penguins, there was that signing of Jagr the other day.  Now nearly everyone expected the Flyers to be looking at wingers, maybe Erik Cole or Michael Ryder, but no one was taking about Jagr to the Flyers until the day before free agency.  Apparently the Flyers pursuit of him didn't even start until then until Holmgren speculatively sent a text to former flyer Petr Svoboda, who is the agent for Jagr and Voracek.

Jagr will be a very interesting case.  He'll turn 40 in midseason and will not be the dominant player of old, but he's remained productive in Russia and is coming off a very strong World Championships performance.  It's easy to question whether an aging temperamental Euro star is a right fit on the Flyers, but Jagr seems more dedicated to training and staying in shape than ever before.  Also he apparently did his homework and chose the Flyers (which were not the richest offer) after talking to the coaches and players.  There's lots of reasons to be hopeful that Jagr will have a productive season, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him hit 60 points this season.

Lastly, there is the signing of Andreas Lilja.  A cheap, depth defensemen for the 6/7 role.


Other Signings:
-Handzus to SJ for $2.5x2 years.  Early in the day it was reported that the Flyers had signed Handzus, to which I was receptive.  He would be a big centermen to play on the third line and would be a decent fit at the right price.  Seems to me SJ got a good deal here for an aging though still valuable centermen.

-Upshall to Florida for $3.5x4.  Wow, the first of many big overpayments on the day.  This signing was the perfect marriage of a player who's not quite as good as he thinks he is (career highs; 22 goals and 34 points) with a team looking to overpay to get to the cap floor.

-Leino to Buffalo for $4.5x6.  This is an outright shocker.  I don't blame the Flyers for holding steady at a $3m deal, though I suspected someone else would come along and offer more.  Just not that much more.  Calendar year 2010 Leino, who scored 21 points in 19 playoff games and had a very strong first half of the ensuing regular season, was a player worthy of a deal approaching $4m a season.  Calendar year 2011 Leino, not so much.  While Leino is younger and better defensively than Jagr (though he's still not great defensively himself), what are the odds the Flyers get more points and goals from Jagr at $3.3m this year than Buffalo gets from Leino at $4.5?

-Cole to Montreal for $4.5x4.  This is the guy who I wanted on the Flyers, and while that's not an outrageous price, it was still too high for the Flyers to entertain.

-Connolly to Leafs for $4.75x2.  Connolly is a talented player who plays at near a point/game pace when healthy, but when is he ever healthy?  He's only played 70 games once since the lockout, and here are his point totals the last 5 seasons; 1, 40, 47, 65, 42.  This is a $5 million player now?  At least it's only a 2 year deal.

-Vokoun to the Caps for $1.5x1.  An outright steal for the Caps, as he fell into their laps when he didn't find a big money deal on July 1 and looked for a contender to join.  Of course the Flyers could not have entered free agency and expected to get Vokoun for anywhere near this amount, but it still hurts to watch a competitor get such a quality goalie for so little salary, even if it was just luck.


Up Next for the Flyers:
-The Flyers don't have much cap space left.  They likely have $3m or so in cap space left after signing Simmonds and making expected cuts, but they still need to carry a 19th or 20th skater and leave a little cap buffer.

-There are rumors the Flyers are sniffing around Jason Arnott.  He would be of similar interest to the Flyers for the same reason as Handzus; a big third line center at this point of his career.  He might want too much money though.

-The Stamkos rumors never go away with the Flyers.  The latest is Schenn, Bobrovsky and 1st rounder for Stamkos.  If there was no salary cap and this was purely about hockey, I definitely do this deal.  Given the cap restraints however, the Flyers will likely have to dump more salary to fit Stamkos in (Hartnell or Carle maybe), and would not be in great shape next offseason allocating raises to JVR and Coburn, so it's ultimately a tough call.  This is assuming of course the rumors are accurate and Stamkos doesn't simply resign with the Lightning.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Buffalo Series Game 7 Review


Last night showed, that when you strip away all the nonsense about Pronger injuries and shocking goaltending, the Flyers are a much better team than the Sabres.  The Flyers jumped all over the Sabres, who almost survived until Miller let in an awful goal.  I guess that would make terrible goals allowed ~9-1 this series?

Outside of Game 1, in which I thought the Sabres did very well to keep the Flyers out of dangerous scoring areas, the Sabres haven't been able to slow down the Flyers attack.  This series went seven games based another shutout win on the back of Miller, and the worst goaltending you will see this time of year.

The one other big difference last night was blocked shots.  I don't have the statistics, but through the first 25 minutes of the game the Flyers blocked a ton of shots, protecting Boucher.  That is the kind of effort they will have to replicate against stronger competition.

Observations and other deep thoughts:
-I've ragged on Coburn a bit, but when push comes to shove he's a trusted defensemen.  He covered a lot of ground in game 6, and has one of the best all-around games among the flyers defensemen.

-Good first period from Richards, driving the net.  Skated less as the game went on.  I still say something is up with him physically, but he will battle and hopefully get healthier.

-Encouraging to see Pronger play meaningful minutes, though the fact the Flyers still dressed Syrvet (only to play 19 seconds) means they're keeping an eye on his still-mending health.  And did I see a note that Pronger went up the tunnel with <1 minute left in the game, and thus missed the handshake?  Not sure on that one, but would be kind of bush league if that's what happened.

-One more goal each for JVR and Briere.  

-Zherdev is trying, but you can tell the way he kind of haphazardly throws himself he has no idea how to throw a check.  Either way, earning his keep in the lineup and at this rate he'll bag a goal or two.

-No, I did not think the Flyers were going to get their first SO last night, even when it was 4-0 in the 3rd.

-I thought the Flyers power play hit a turning point in game 5, and last night took another step, as the Flyers power play looked like a real threat.  Pronger helps, but I also like moving Richards back and JVR to the front.

-Felt like "old' times with the Leino-Briere-Hartnell line, pinning the Sabres in their own end on many shifts.

-Leighton has fallen off the face of the earth apparently, and there was even a rumor (which Holmgren denied--big surprise) that Leighton had gone AWOL from the team after being pulled from game 6.  Not much makes sense to me.  Leighton has been a good a soldier, so I don't see why he would bolt after being rightfully pulled from game 6.  On the other hand, the Flyers handling on Leighton has been strange, sending to the minors for all those months, recalling him but not playing him in the regular season, then giving him a playoff start, then being the number 4 goalie the next day?  It's all hard to make sense of.  Either way, his chances of returning to the net these playoffs are basically zero, and we'll leave it at that.

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Buffalo Series Game 5

Okay, I think I am sufficiently recovered to talk about the traumatic game last night.

My initial thought is that the Flyers spotted them two goals, and then Buffalo nicked a third after some questionable calls and a 4-on-3 (I thought we were done with the Flyers getting coincidental penalties when a Sabre punches them in the face and they literally turn around and don't even try to defend themselves--apparently not).  In my opinion, Buffalo did very little to earn that lead.   There's dirty goals, and there's lucky goals.  Scoring from the corner and behind the net when there's no traffic or other threat for the goalie to worry about is simply luck.

It was big gut check from the Flyers though, coming out in the 2nd and scoring 2 goals while outshooting Buffalo 11-0.  Nobody question the Flyers are capable of that kind of performance, but they regularly find ways to make that irrelevant.

The Flyers will have a tough game 6 in Buffalo, but I think they are likely to win.  Buffalo hasn't exactly staked a very strong claim to this series, winning 2 1-0 games and barely eeking out a win yesterday despite essentially being gifted a 2 goal lead.  The series is there for the taking, but the margin of error for the Flyers to leak backbreaking goals is officially zero now.  These untimely goal against have been a repeated theme for them this year, whether it be goaltending or something else, but hopefully they can go 2 straight games without one.

Comments and other deep thoughts:
-Another big effort from JVR.  I don't think there's any question that he and Giroux have been the Flyers' best forwards this series.  Really encouraging stuff for JVR for this year and beyond.

-I still think Coburn is playing lousy.  Only noticeable for a few terrible turnovers a game, not doing much else.

-That was the best the Flyers PP has played in a while.  No goals, but it actually looked like a power play.  I also liked getting JVR down low on it towards the end of the game.  Putting him at the point just because he won the hardest shot contest was kind of insane, and he's ready to compete physically in there with the big boys.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see Pronger on the PP Sunday, bad hand and all.

-I'll call it Zherdev's best game as a Flyer overall, and unquestionably his best defensive effort.  If he played like that every night he'd be $4 million/year guy in the NHL, not an unclaimed waivers player.  I thought he was gonna score in OT honestly.

-Might be time to give up on Richards looking like the Richards of past years this season.  I don't know what the problem is, but he's not skating, mucking and hitting the way he has done in past playoffs, and the odds of it materializing in game 6 are slim to none.

-And of course, goaltending.  I have been harping (obsessing?) about this topic all year, but at least now I know I wasn't crazy and wasting my breath.  It would've been somewhat crazy to think that after 82 games of groping for a goalie the Flyers would sort it out in a few playoff games.

Simply put, the Flyers goalies are not giving them a chance to win.  It's fine to say you don't need a standout goalie to win in the playoffs, but you're not winning jack with Bob's game 2 performance and Boosh's last night.

Boosh had to be pulled last night, but Leighton was not confidence inspiring in relief.  I don't know who starts in game 6, but does it really matter?  None of the Flyers' goalies are good enough, though I think Leighton is the best fit stylistically for this team (mainly just being a big body in there who can block the puck).  Laviolette can play pretty much whoever he feels like in game 6 because no goalie has made a case that he deserves the start.

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Game 3 Review

Good win for the Flyers, which gives them (a little) breathing room in the series.  Last night was unquestionably the Sabres strongest challenge to the Flyers thus far, but Boosh was there when the team needed him and the team finished the game confidently in the 3rd period.

Comments and Observations:
-Better stuff from Richards and Carter, though I would stop short of saying breakout performances.  Carter got a lucky bounce leading the first goal, but it was nice to see him rifle a shot into the corner.  He was also around the puck a lot more.  As for Richards, a less dramatic improvement.  I previously said he's not getting around the ice very well and looks to have slow feet, and I don't think it's a coincidence that on his nice assist last night he never had to move his feet.  His mobility/endurance is still something I will be keeping an eye on.

-Another great game from JVR.  Looks so much more confident and stronger on the puck.

-Pretty good effort from Zherdev.  His goal was a tap-in, but he played a good game.

-Power play still has some work to do.  1-3 looks all well-and-good, but the one goal came on a lucky bounce, not exactly reproduce-able power play execution.  So far the Flyers have been the better 5-on-5 club, with the Sabres owning special teams.  Last night the Flyers killed a big 5-on-3, and breaking even on special teams was good enough to win the game for the Flyers.

-Very good game from Boucher.  He was 'quiet' in the crease, which is a key for him in my opinion.  He misplayed the Sabres second goal, but was strong overall in a game where the Sabres actually generated some consistent pressure for the first time this series.  Also, throwing off his loose mask on the 5-on-3 was a sneaky play.

-Coburn is making some bad turnovers in his own end.  He can play better.