A Disappointing Week?

I've been patiently waiting for things to play out, and now most of the big questions have been answered.  So...

Parise and Suter
-The Flyers reportedly made massive bids to both Parise and Suter, possibly the biggest offer of any team in terms of dollars and years (over 10 years and over $100m).  Honestly, to my relief, neither bid was accepted.  All-in-all, their decision to sign jointly in Minnesota is nearly ideal for the Flyers.

I really like Parise's game, and by all reports Suter is a quality top pair defensemen.  Still, I don't think it made sense for the Flyers to be saddled with these deals, which would be overpayments unless these guys are MVP or Norris candidates.  The Flyers getting either of these guys was always a longshot, but my more realistic concern was Parise signing with the Pens (though I have to say, I'm not sure it was even wise for the Penguins to commit $25m to three forwards for the next 10 years in Malkin, Crosby and Parise).  Now the Flyers can breathe a sigh of relief, with both players going to the Western conference rather than strengthening a rival.  The real losers of these shenanigans were Detroit and Nashville, who fell short in pursuing Suter and the obvious Suter-Plan-B, Matt Carle.

Carle Signs in TB
-Speaking of Carle, he got a long contract from TB.  Flyers fans' initial reaction to this was that the Flyers blew it, by futilely chasing Suter and letting Carle get away.  I'm not sure I quite see it that way.

For one, it's not entirely tough luck the Flyers had not already signed him.  The fact is, they prioritized signing Grossmann and Coburn over signing Carle.  Two, the Flyers took a very strange stance, publicly touting that they believed they could sign Carle for below market value.

For months, I have written here repeatedly that if he got to free agency, someone was going to offer Carle $5m+ a year.  The signing of Wideman last week removed all doubt, and evidently caused Carle to reconsider any verbal agreement with the Flyers.  My bottom line is this; you can't fight the market with UFAs.  Once Carle decided to at least listen to free agent offers, the Flyers had no shot.  He was going to wait for Suter to sign, then get a big offer.  The Flyers pursuit of Suter made no difference, as by then Carle was in UFA mode and Carle was waiting for Suter before he would sign with anyone (including the Flyers).  At that point, the Flyers were not going to come close to TB's offer of $5.5m x 6 years.

Realistically, the Flyers had two options.  Sign Carle to ~$5m contract a few months ago and let either Grossmann or Coburn be exposed to UFA offers, or do what they did with Carle.   They chose the latter, and I'm not sure I would've done it differently.

Jagr Goes to Dallas
-Another effect of the exploding UFA market this season was Jagr getting a $4.5m deal from Dallas.  Again, there is no way the Flyers would offer that much.  I would've liked to see the Flyers resign him for something at or below last year's $3.3m contract, but again, you can't fight the market.

As it was, Jagr left and there was a lovefest on twitter between Jagr and his now ex-teammates.

Jaromir Jagr ‏@68Jagr

-Just to everybody knows:Max Talbot is the most underrated and underpaid player in NHL.Holmgren did a great job signing him last season.

-To@28CGiroux:Keep working and soon you will be the best player in NHL like I said.To@Hartsy19:work hard and you will score 40.

-Special thanks to my linemates Scotty and G.

-Thank you the Flyers for the opportunity you gave me.Thanks to all fans and teammates for great support! I had so much fun! Will miss you.

Matt Read ‏@MReader24

Was a pleasure play some puck with the legend himself @68Jagr. Best of luck in Dallas Mr. Positive #beauty #alwayssmiling

Oh well, I enjoyed having him around last year.

Gervais and Fedotenko

-Without digging to deeply to analyze these signings, they seem like good ideas to me.  Fedotenko's a very experienced vet who can play any forward position and have the full trust of the coach.  The cap hit is low, and there's basically no risk in a 1-year contract.

Regarding Gervais, another low risk move that could blossom nicely.  He's not going to play many minutes, but with a right-handed shot and his strength being puck movement, he could slot in nicely.  If he does have a bounceback season, the Flyers have him under contract next year for super-cheap as well.  Also, as an aside, Gervais and Talbot are apparently best buds, and Talbot will be Gervais's best man in his upcoming wedding.

The Picture
So merely assuming Voracek and Bourdon are signed, and the Flyers can use all of Pronger's LTIR allotment, this is the roster today:

That doesn't look too bad, but definitely not as strong as last year.  Up front, JVR and Jagr are out, replaced by 3rd liner Fedotenko.  In the back, Carle and his 20+ minutes are gone, replaced by Schenn and Gervais.  Again, the Flyers are going to be relying on young players to improve and maintain a high level of play.  Fortunately, the Flyers still have some flexibility here with ~$8m in cap space to use.

I like the Rick Tocchet plan, which may already be in effect; "If I were Flyers , I would have my attention on Doan and a couple of second tier d-man ...stay with the young core and grab Weber next year".

Doan and Weber would be big for this team, though whether either goes anywhere is up in the air.  Nashville will desperately want to keep Weber, but in one year he can do whatever he wants.  Doan wants to stay, provided ownership in Phoenix is stabilized.

Personally, I make aggressive offers to Doan for 2 or 3 years.  Hopefully higher dollars can substitute for that 4th year he wants, and that other teams will give him.

Regarding Weber, best case scenario for the Flyers is that he plays one more year in Nashville, then goes UFA.  The Flyers don't have much left to trade--I wouldn't trade Cooter under any circumstances, and I might've traded Schenn for someone like Weber, but that was before JVR and Jagr were gone.  The forwards corps now can't afford to lose Schenn.

The wisest thing for Nashville to do is offer Weber a huge contract, and if he doesn't take it, trade him.  They can't afford to lose Weber next year like they lost Suter this year.  Unfortunately, this makes it pretty hard on the Flyers to acquire him, in my opinion.

Offseason Preparations

I've had my little break, and the dust has settled after the playoff exit.  Offseason grumblings are beginning to trickle out, so I'd like to make sense of it all.

Starting with the least speculative news, multiple reports last week indicated Jagr's first choice is to indeed resign with the Flyers, despite the indications that he was ready to move on fresh off the playoff loss.  Talks with the Flyers are said to be progressing, with one rumor on twitter saying that an agreement is already reached.

Additionally, claims are that the Flyers will resign Carle too, at slightly below market rate.  The twist to all this that the Flyers don't have the "tagging space" to sign them yet (basically, your payroll next year can't exceed this year's cap).  As a result, the cap will rise to $70.3 million on July 1, and the Flyers will be free to sign these guys then.  By that time however, Carle will officially be a free agent, and I still think someone throws $5+ million at him.  Could that throw a wrench in the Flyers plans?

Either way, let's assume these signings both happen.  Now I have heard NOTHING about Voracek resigning, but let's plug that in too.  You get this picture.

*This is without the "bonus cushion."  This means that for players like Schenn, his cap hit will be the full $3.11m until he misses a bonus benchmark.   This will happen soon, but even so, this is the limit with which the Flyers must comply on opening day.  If there is the "bonus cushion" this season, the Flyers can exceed the cap by such a bonus, but would be penalized if the players ultimately earned the bonus and send the Flyers over the cap.

Now ignore the lines, and I had to guess at contract values for Jagr, Voracek and Carle, but this should be more or less accurate.  The main takeaway is that, making no other changes, merely resigning these guys leaves little cap space for other signings.  This leaves the possibility of a plain vanilla offseason of resignings only, with no other acquisitions of note.

The Flyers rarely stand pat though, often pulling off trades at the draft.  I'm not going to speculate on roster depth maneuvers, but there could be a few big pieces in play.

JVR-Nash Rumors
For one, Howard Eskin dropped this nugget yesterday; JVR is delaying having surgery, which could hold up a trade for Nash because the Flyers can't trade him if he isn't healthy.  Now Eskin knows nothing about hockey in terms of analysis, but his information is good.  He usually only says something about the Flyers when he gets good info.

JVR was on the Flyers post-season surgery list, and unusually (but not shockingly), he has not had the surgery yet.  The Flyers have already denied the insinuation that there is any intent on the part of JVR to delay his surgery, and that does seem like a bombastic accusation. 

Putting aside the question of intent by JVR, but taking the underlying issue of his health holding up a trade as true, this transaction would return to a few themes.  Go back to the trade deadline, and the Flyers were players for Nash.  It was left at, and I quote Darren Dreger, "Price too high for Flyers(at moment) for Nash. May re-engage later. JVR,Bobrovski, Schenn or Couturier believed to be part of asking price."  Also, this would be the second time a JVR injury is seen as holding up a deal, as he was out with a concussion in February when the Luke Schenn trade rumors were everywhere.

I've already evaluated a JVR-Nash trade, but my stance remains the same---JVR will never be the player Nash is, but Nash's best days are behind him.  JVR and Bob I'd be happy to trade, but I would not include Schenn or Cooter in the trade for a diminishing star with a big cap hit like Nash.  We'll see if there's anything to this.

Nashville Defensemen
Putting aside Nash, the Flyers real need is top-end defensemen.  The two names being thrown around are Suter and Tobias Enstrom.  Enstrom is basically a younger Timonen, but he has one year left on his contract (at a low cap it), and would require a trade to acquire.  Suter will be a free agent on July 1, and Nashville is trying hard to resign him.

I've seen reports that the Suter doesn't want to sign with the Flyers, but even assuming those are incorrect, I doubt we'll see this signing.  For one, Nashville has the cap space and will pull out all the stops to keep him.  Second, everyone knows Detroit wants him, and Detroit has just seen Lidstrom retire and is letting Stuart go.  I think Suter stays in Nashville or goes to Detroit.

This situation creates a second domino--Shea Weber.  He is my grand hope for the Flyers this offseason.  A full-on replacement for Chris Pronger.  Weber is a restricted free agent, so practically this means a trade.  JVR again?  (A JVR+Mesz+picks seems to be a popular rumor.  I'd take that trade FWIW.)  The wrinkle here is that Weber and Suter are the spine of Nashville's team, and despite their limited budget, I can't see any way they let both Weber and Suter go.  Despite my fantasies, I think the most likely scenario is Suter to Detroit, Weber staying in Nashville.

Bobrovsky
Getting back to Bobrovsky, the Flyers could try to save some cap space but getting a cheaper backup.  Bob's future prospects in Philadelphia are waning, though I was an advocate of trading him last offseason.  I don't think Bob has nearly as much trading value as Flyers fans like to believe, but the time might be right to trade him anyway and bring in an experienced number 2.