And We're Back...

Tomorrow, it's finally back to hockey.  It should be a pretty fun home opener against the Pens.  The Pens of course are coming off their first round loss to the Flyers last year, in which their contempt for the Flyers caused them to completely lose their nerve.  30 goals against in 6 games was the result.  Remarkably, this will be the Pens 8th straight game against the Flyers, with no other opponents in between.

But enough about the Pens.  The Flyers won't have any time to get in game shape, as its trial by fire with an incredibly busy schedule, kicking off with 5 games in 8 days.  Fortunately, there is a lot of consistency with last year's roster, and most player's on the roster have been playing in Europe or the minors.  However, with Briere out and Meszaros questionable, the exact lineup is still a work in progress.  It appears the Flyers will start the season with the following:

The big questions on my mind;

-That lineup is scary young down the middle.  At 25, Giroux is the old man.  Cooter, Laughton and Wellwood only have 136 career NHL games between the 3 of them!!  Things will look a little different once Briere comes back (with his 921 games played), but in some ways, he is the least reliable of all of them.

-Will Scott Laughton stick around?  He was hardly a prized draft pick, but he looks to be one of the few players from this year's draft to play in the NHL this year.  After he plays in 5 games, the Flyers must send him back to the juniors, or lose a year on his entry-level contract.  Due the condensed schedule, that is only 8 days.

-How much can be expected from Cooter and Schenner?  They put up solid numbers on a dreadful Phantoms team in the AHL.  That should be expected from top prospects, and basically they were the entire offense for the team.  Cooter is still only 19 however.  I think it's time for Schenn to live up to his billing from the last few years.  I recall that I thought he was the Flyers's best player in game 1 versus Pitt last year, until Asham ran him and slowed him down.

-Who will be the 6th defensemen?  Right now it's newly signed Kurtis Foster, who looked to be having a promising career until it was derailed by injuries over the last few seasons.  I wouldn't mind seeing the big man wind-up on the PP a few times though.  A total x-factor is the possibility of signing Redden.  He's been parked in the AHL the last 2 years due to his enormous contract, but the Rangers have now bought him out and he's free to sign anywhere, likely on a one year deal.  He's 35 now, and I'm not sure how much he has left, but I presume he could fit in on several teams' bottom pair.  I don't know how real the Flyers interest in him may be, but they sniff around everything and there's not much to lose with a one-year deal.  Either way we'll find out today.  If he does sign, he'll battle it out with Foster for the #6 spot, and Gervais will be the 8th defensemen.

-Can Simmonds match the pace of his career high in goals?  Can Hartnell match the pace of his career high in goals?  Can Read avoid the sophomore slump?  I'll say yes, probably slightly off, and yes.

-Is Bryzgalov focused and ready?  It's not unusual for big ticket signings to struggle in their first season in a new town.  No doubt, Bryz bungled it in many ways.  Still, I think he can turn it around and be a top goalie again.  He didn't impress as a third wheel in the KHL during the lockout, and it seems he was never really focused there honestly.  It won't all be smooth sailing, but I think he'll have a solid season.  If not, I'm not sure what the Flyers will do.  Lure Tim Thomas out of his sabbatical?

-Will Laviolette tighten things up defensively?  I wrote about this last year, and I was hardly the only one to point it out.  This year, it appears that Snider expects the team to tighten up on defense, and help Bryz more.  I don't know if they're going to do that, but I think it would be a good idea.


The Flyers are saddled in the toughest division and hockey.  The Rangers and Pens are probably the two biggest favorites in the East, and the Devils are coming off a trip to the finals.  Expectations for the Flyers won't be as high, and maybe that's a good thing.  Either way, it'll be interesting...

A Disappointing Week?

I've been patiently waiting for things to play out, and now most of the big questions have been answered.  So...

Parise and Suter
-The Flyers reportedly made massive bids to both Parise and Suter, possibly the biggest offer of any team in terms of dollars and years (over 10 years and over $100m).  Honestly, to my relief, neither bid was accepted.  All-in-all, their decision to sign jointly in Minnesota is nearly ideal for the Flyers.

I really like Parise's game, and by all reports Suter is a quality top pair defensemen.  Still, I don't think it made sense for the Flyers to be saddled with these deals, which would be overpayments unless these guys are MVP or Norris candidates.  The Flyers getting either of these guys was always a longshot, but my more realistic concern was Parise signing with the Pens (though I have to say, I'm not sure it was even wise for the Penguins to commit $25m to three forwards for the next 10 years in Malkin, Crosby and Parise).  Now the Flyers can breathe a sigh of relief, with both players going to the Western conference rather than strengthening a rival.  The real losers of these shenanigans were Detroit and Nashville, who fell short in pursuing Suter and the obvious Suter-Plan-B, Matt Carle.

Carle Signs in TB
-Speaking of Carle, he got a long contract from TB.  Flyers fans' initial reaction to this was that the Flyers blew it, by futilely chasing Suter and letting Carle get away.  I'm not sure I quite see it that way.

For one, it's not entirely tough luck the Flyers had not already signed him.  The fact is, they prioritized signing Grossmann and Coburn over signing Carle.  Two, the Flyers took a very strange stance, publicly touting that they believed they could sign Carle for below market value.

For months, I have written here repeatedly that if he got to free agency, someone was going to offer Carle $5m+ a year.  The signing of Wideman last week removed all doubt, and evidently caused Carle to reconsider any verbal agreement with the Flyers.  My bottom line is this; you can't fight the market with UFAs.  Once Carle decided to at least listen to free agent offers, the Flyers had no shot.  He was going to wait for Suter to sign, then get a big offer.  The Flyers pursuit of Suter made no difference, as by then Carle was in UFA mode and Carle was waiting for Suter before he would sign with anyone (including the Flyers).  At that point, the Flyers were not going to come close to TB's offer of $5.5m x 6 years.

Realistically, the Flyers had two options.  Sign Carle to ~$5m contract a few months ago and let either Grossmann or Coburn be exposed to UFA offers, or do what they did with Carle.   They chose the latter, and I'm not sure I would've done it differently.

Jagr Goes to Dallas
-Another effect of the exploding UFA market this season was Jagr getting a $4.5m deal from Dallas.  Again, there is no way the Flyers would offer that much.  I would've liked to see the Flyers resign him for something at or below last year's $3.3m contract, but again, you can't fight the market.

As it was, Jagr left and there was a lovefest on twitter between Jagr and his now ex-teammates.

Jaromir Jagr ‏@68Jagr

-Just to everybody knows:Max Talbot is the most underrated and underpaid player in NHL.Holmgren did a great job signing him last season.

-To@28CGiroux:Keep working and soon you will be the best player in NHL like I said.To@Hartsy19:work hard and you will score 40.

-Special thanks to my linemates Scotty and G.

-Thank you the Flyers for the opportunity you gave me.Thanks to all fans and teammates for great support! I had so much fun! Will miss you.

Matt Read ‏@MReader24

Was a pleasure play some puck with the legend himself @68Jagr. Best of luck in Dallas Mr. Positive #beauty #alwayssmiling

Oh well, I enjoyed having him around last year.

Gervais and Fedotenko

-Without digging to deeply to analyze these signings, they seem like good ideas to me.  Fedotenko's a very experienced vet who can play any forward position and have the full trust of the coach.  The cap hit is low, and there's basically no risk in a 1-year contract.

Regarding Gervais, another low risk move that could blossom nicely.  He's not going to play many minutes, but with a right-handed shot and his strength being puck movement, he could slot in nicely.  If he does have a bounceback season, the Flyers have him under contract next year for super-cheap as well.  Also, as an aside, Gervais and Talbot are apparently best buds, and Talbot will be Gervais's best man in his upcoming wedding.

The Picture
So merely assuming Voracek and Bourdon are signed, and the Flyers can use all of Pronger's LTIR allotment, this is the roster today:

That doesn't look too bad, but definitely not as strong as last year.  Up front, JVR and Jagr are out, replaced by 3rd liner Fedotenko.  In the back, Carle and his 20+ minutes are gone, replaced by Schenn and Gervais.  Again, the Flyers are going to be relying on young players to improve and maintain a high level of play.  Fortunately, the Flyers still have some flexibility here with ~$8m in cap space to use.

I like the Rick Tocchet plan, which may already be in effect; "If I were Flyers , I would have my attention on Doan and a couple of second tier d-man ...stay with the young core and grab Weber next year".

Doan and Weber would be big for this team, though whether either goes anywhere is up in the air.  Nashville will desperately want to keep Weber, but in one year he can do whatever he wants.  Doan wants to stay, provided ownership in Phoenix is stabilized.

Personally, I make aggressive offers to Doan for 2 or 3 years.  Hopefully higher dollars can substitute for that 4th year he wants, and that other teams will give him.

Regarding Weber, best case scenario for the Flyers is that he plays one more year in Nashville, then goes UFA.  The Flyers don't have much left to trade--I wouldn't trade Cooter under any circumstances, and I might've traded Schenn for someone like Weber, but that was before JVR and Jagr were gone.  The forwards corps now can't afford to lose Schenn.

The wisest thing for Nashville to do is offer Weber a huge contract, and if he doesn't take it, trade him.  They can't afford to lose Weber next year like they lost Suter this year.  Unfortunately, this makes it pretty hard on the Flyers to acquire him, in my opinion.