Draft Weekend Recap

Indeed, the pieces on the board began to move this weekend for the Flyers.  The rumors were getting crazy on Thursday, and the Flyer were supposedly in on everyone; Nash, Parise, Ryan, Suter, Weber, and trading up in the draft.  Ultimately, the Flyers made far less daring moves.

JVR
The move that was so heavily rumored in March finally came about.  For starters, I am on board with trading JVR.  He seems like a good kid, and he has the talent, I'm just not sure I see him producing consistently.  Often the only difference between a journey-man goal scorer and a top line allstar is consistency, and I think JVR will always be a streaky player.  He's not effective playing on the outside, and he's simply not a banger at heart.  Either way, I've previously written about his development here and here.

As for the particulars on this trade, I wrote about this in March, and not much has changed since...

On paper, the trade makes a lot of sense.  It is a like-for-like trade:
-both players were very high draft picks; JVR #2 in 2007 and Schenn #5 in 2008
-both players have made some noise in the NHL, with Schenn immediately joining the big club as an 18 year old and JVR turning a lot of heads in the playoffs last year
-both players may be seen as underwhelming in their development, with Schenn's ice time down this year and JVR not building off last year's playoffs
-both players are signed to manageable long term contracts

The Flyers need defensemen, the Leafs need size up front.  The trade is merely teams trying to address an organizational need while holding their salary, youth and long term potential constant.

All that said, the devil will be in details.  Flyers fans expect Schenn and other goodies for JVR, and Leafs fan vice-versa.  A rumor I read yesterday is that it will be the Flyers who have to sweeten the pot to complete the deal, and the Leafs want Matt Read.

No thanks on that one.  If that's the case I walk away.

http://mostlyflyers.blogspot.com/2012/01/jvr-for-luke-schenn.html


The Flyers top need was a physical dman, and they now have a promising young one.  A good, simple, hockey trade without a clear "winner" in my opinion.

Bobrovsky
Like JVR, I was ready to see Bob go.  I also wrote about this the other day.  Either way, I think his most likely career path is as a backup or journeyman starter.  He will now get a chance to prove himself in Columbus that he won't get here.

The Flyers should be happy with the trade return for him.  I think his reputation around the league has sunk a little bit over the last several months, and there was no way the Flyers were going to get the kind of return the Caps got for Varlamov last year---ultimately a fairly high first round pick in a deal that shocked a lot around the league.  Still, to salvage a mid-second round pick and two 4th rounders is a good return.  The Flyers definitely benefitted from other teams snatching up backup goalie candidates in the previous week, apparently allowing the Flyers to choose between Winnpeg's offer of the #39 pick, or the #45 pick and two 4th rounders from Columbus.

Incidentally, the Flyers drafted a goalie with the #45 pick.

Draft Picks
I will not pretend to know much about who the Flyers drafted.  Regarding their first round pick, it was mildly disappointing to see them take a center without high-end potential when they have rarely picked in the first round at all the last few years and desperately need defensemen in the system.  On the other hand, this player appears very likely to actually graduate to the NHL, and the Flyers have been amazing at picking winners late in the first round (Gagne, Williams, Giroux).  Scouts say this is a very poor draft class as well.

What Next?
First, this is how I see the Flyers cap situation;

To complete this, I guessed at a value for Voracek, and plugged in a backup goalie that may not be accurate, but the salary should be.  I also plugged in Carle at $4.25, although I find it hard to believe he will sign for so little, but people keep throwing it out there.  The takeaway is that the Flyers could have about $6 million or more to throw at a top-6 forward.

I think their pursuit of Nash is now dead.  JVR and Bob were their two major trading chips to get Nash, and they have been cashed in.  Personally, I think the Columbus GM is overplaying his hand, and as teams like the Flyers move on, the offers for Nash will now begin to get worse.  I wasn't a huge fan of Nash to Philly anyway.

The two major targets the Flyers could go after is Parise or Ryan.  Again, the Flyers don't have many assets left to trade for Ryan, so I'm not seeing it.  Regarding Parise, I think the Flyers have a lot of interest and will make an offer.  I have my doubts about how they'll fare in a bidding war on the open market, however.

The conservative course is to resign Jagr and pick up a role-player for the bottom two lines for about $5 million combined.  This is probably the wisest course in my opinion.  Granted, maybe the Flyers can't resign Carle or Voracek (silence is ominous regarding his extension, I think), and then all this needs to be re-evaluated.

Offseason Preparations

I've had my little break, and the dust has settled after the playoff exit.  Offseason grumblings are beginning to trickle out, so I'd like to make sense of it all.

Starting with the least speculative news, multiple reports last week indicated Jagr's first choice is to indeed resign with the Flyers, despite the indications that he was ready to move on fresh off the playoff loss.  Talks with the Flyers are said to be progressing, with one rumor on twitter saying that an agreement is already reached.

Additionally, claims are that the Flyers will resign Carle too, at slightly below market rate.  The twist to all this that the Flyers don't have the "tagging space" to sign them yet (basically, your payroll next year can't exceed this year's cap).  As a result, the cap will rise to $70.3 million on July 1, and the Flyers will be free to sign these guys then.  By that time however, Carle will officially be a free agent, and I still think someone throws $5+ million at him.  Could that throw a wrench in the Flyers plans?

Either way, let's assume these signings both happen.  Now I have heard NOTHING about Voracek resigning, but let's plug that in too.  You get this picture.

*This is without the "bonus cushion."  This means that for players like Schenn, his cap hit will be the full $3.11m until he misses a bonus benchmark.   This will happen soon, but even so, this is the limit with which the Flyers must comply on opening day.  If there is the "bonus cushion" this season, the Flyers can exceed the cap by such a bonus, but would be penalized if the players ultimately earned the bonus and send the Flyers over the cap.

Now ignore the lines, and I had to guess at contract values for Jagr, Voracek and Carle, but this should be more or less accurate.  The main takeaway is that, making no other changes, merely resigning these guys leaves little cap space for other signings.  This leaves the possibility of a plain vanilla offseason of resignings only, with no other acquisitions of note.

The Flyers rarely stand pat though, often pulling off trades at the draft.  I'm not going to speculate on roster depth maneuvers, but there could be a few big pieces in play.

JVR-Nash Rumors
For one, Howard Eskin dropped this nugget yesterday; JVR is delaying having surgery, which could hold up a trade for Nash because the Flyers can't trade him if he isn't healthy.  Now Eskin knows nothing about hockey in terms of analysis, but his information is good.  He usually only says something about the Flyers when he gets good info.

JVR was on the Flyers post-season surgery list, and unusually (but not shockingly), he has not had the surgery yet.  The Flyers have already denied the insinuation that there is any intent on the part of JVR to delay his surgery, and that does seem like a bombastic accusation. 

Putting aside the question of intent by JVR, but taking the underlying issue of his health holding up a trade as true, this transaction would return to a few themes.  Go back to the trade deadline, and the Flyers were players for Nash.  It was left at, and I quote Darren Dreger, "Price too high for Flyers(at moment) for Nash. May re-engage later. JVR,Bobrovski, Schenn or Couturier believed to be part of asking price."  Also, this would be the second time a JVR injury is seen as holding up a deal, as he was out with a concussion in February when the Luke Schenn trade rumors were everywhere.

I've already evaluated a JVR-Nash trade, but my stance remains the same---JVR will never be the player Nash is, but Nash's best days are behind him.  JVR and Bob I'd be happy to trade, but I would not include Schenn or Cooter in the trade for a diminishing star with a big cap hit like Nash.  We'll see if there's anything to this.

Nashville Defensemen
Putting aside Nash, the Flyers real need is top-end defensemen.  The two names being thrown around are Suter and Tobias Enstrom.  Enstrom is basically a younger Timonen, but he has one year left on his contract (at a low cap it), and would require a trade to acquire.  Suter will be a free agent on July 1, and Nashville is trying hard to resign him.

I've seen reports that the Suter doesn't want to sign with the Flyers, but even assuming those are incorrect, I doubt we'll see this signing.  For one, Nashville has the cap space and will pull out all the stops to keep him.  Second, everyone knows Detroit wants him, and Detroit has just seen Lidstrom retire and is letting Stuart go.  I think Suter stays in Nashville or goes to Detroit.

This situation creates a second domino--Shea Weber.  He is my grand hope for the Flyers this offseason.  A full-on replacement for Chris Pronger.  Weber is a restricted free agent, so practically this means a trade.  JVR again?  (A JVR+Mesz+picks seems to be a popular rumor.  I'd take that trade FWIW.)  The wrinkle here is that Weber and Suter are the spine of Nashville's team, and despite their limited budget, I can't see any way they let both Weber and Suter go.  Despite my fantasies, I think the most likely scenario is Suter to Detroit, Weber staying in Nashville.

Bobrovsky
Getting back to Bobrovsky, the Flyers could try to save some cap space but getting a cheaper backup.  Bob's future prospects in Philadelphia are waning, though I was an advocate of trading him last offseason.  I don't think Bob has nearly as much trading value as Flyers fans like to believe, but the time might be right to trade him anyway and bring in an experienced number 2.

Still Trading

The Flyers completed another trade yesterday, acquiring Pavel Kubina for the 2nd round pick acquired from Florida for Kris Versteeg (which is a 2012 or 2013 at Florida's discretion), a 2013 4th round pick and Jon Kalinski.  Kalinski is pretty much a throw-in--he performed adequately for the Flyers in the past, but has been surpassed by other players on the Flyers call-up depth chart.

Together the Flyers acquired Pavel Kubina and Niklas Grossman, and traded away FLA's 2012/2013 2nd round pick, LA's 2nd round pick in 2012 (acquired in Richards trade), Minnesota's 3rd round pick in 2013 (acquired in the Powe trade), and a 4th round pick in 2013.

I have previously wrote how Grossman fits the Flyers needs for a defensive defensemen with size that has been needed since Pronger went down, and also how Kubina's skill set matches the Flyers needs.  In many ways, this goes back to what I said in December--that Pronger's absence created defensive and power play holes that would likely need to be filled by multiple new defensemen.

Focusing specifically on Kubina, I like his skill set, but there is an open question if his skills are declining.  I guess we'll find out.

More broadly, the wisdom of trading a handful of draft picks for players that may only be 2 month rentals has to be questioned.  These trades definitely make the Flyers a marginally better team, but not necessarily a contender.  Too often Flyers games this season turn into anarchy on ice.  It makes them a lot of fun to watch, but defensive calamity and backbreaking goals never feel far away.  These trades cannot address deeper issues that have persisted into last season.  Holmgren, it seems, is incapable of holding onto draft picks.

More to Come?
The Flyers name is still being kicked around in rumors for Nash and Nabokov.  I'm not sure how much sense it makes to acquire either player, particularly with the Bryzgalov situation and Nabokov being another rental player for a team that may be staring at a very short playoff run. 

Also, Nash is super expensive, and may not be worth the assets and cap space.  It was widely reported yesterday that the Columbus GM was at the Flyers game yesterday and met with Holmgren for 45 minutes, but I will take Darren Dreger's word for his summary of the situation: "Price too high for Flyers(at moment) for Nash. May re-engage later. JVR,Bobrovski, Schenn or Couturier believed to be part of asking price."

A JVR+Bobrovsky deal basis isn't too bad, as I do think JVR will never be the player Nash is.  Consider this chart as evidence of that;

This consideration, however has to be weighed against the fact that it's been 3 years since Nash hit the 40 goal mark, and Nash has only hit 70 points once in his career.  I have also previously written that goal scorers tend to be their most productive in their early 20s.  Now I know the obvious counter to this line of thinking is that Nash has been playing with crap players in Columbus and his production will immediately jump elsewhere, but it is very dangerous to expect significantly different production merely by new teammates.  I'm not sure I could bring myself to part with Schenn or Cooter for Nash.

Odds and Ends

Now the the Flyers have finally had a few days off, there a few odds and ends to discuss.

Rinaldo Suspension

Zac Rinaldo was suspended for two games for his hit on Ericsson, which upon initial look I didn't even think was a penalty.

Upon further review, I think the video lays out a clear case.  What Rinaldo did WAS a charge, under the rule as it has stood as long as memory serves.  Admittedly, in the past, players have gotten away with far worse, but the undercurrent here is that league brass can't like the idea of a young 4th liner who plays a few minutes a night running guys just days after being fined for previous disciplinary issues.  This is precisely the kind of behavior, that in days of yore would've been settled on the ice.  Now that justice isn't doled out like that, other remedies are necessary.

Nash Trade
Given the current joke status of the Blue Jackets franchise, the Rick Nash trade talks have opened up.  Everybody wants a player like that, but how much do you give up for a guy who's only broke the 70 point mark once in his career?  He's signed forever at $7.8m cap hit.  I wouldn't think the Flyers would have any interest, but alas their name keeps coming up.  I feel like it's the Stamkos story all over.  Like with Stamkos, I am deeply skeptical of the wisdom of trading for Nash here.  I also haven't read anything at all about what the Flyers may be offering, but I could see JVR or Bobrovsky as players that the Flyers would be willing to trade that would interest a re-building Columbus team.

Nabokov Performing Well
I have to be honest, I felt like I was taking crazy pills this offseason when I would think of the Flyers acquiring Nabokov.  I saw a proven NHL allstar with a negligible cap hit--how could you not be interested?  Yet there was never any buzz about the Flyers going after him.  Well now Nabokov is looking pretty good with a 2.24 GAA and a 925 save percentage.  How many Flyers fans would like to go back in time and trade for one year of Nabokov rather than have to deal with Bryz's 9 year contract?