A Disappointing Week?

I've been patiently waiting for things to play out, and now most of the big questions have been answered.  So...

Parise and Suter
-The Flyers reportedly made massive bids to both Parise and Suter, possibly the biggest offer of any team in terms of dollars and years (over 10 years and over $100m).  Honestly, to my relief, neither bid was accepted.  All-in-all, their decision to sign jointly in Minnesota is nearly ideal for the Flyers.

I really like Parise's game, and by all reports Suter is a quality top pair defensemen.  Still, I don't think it made sense for the Flyers to be saddled with these deals, which would be overpayments unless these guys are MVP or Norris candidates.  The Flyers getting either of these guys was always a longshot, but my more realistic concern was Parise signing with the Pens (though I have to say, I'm not sure it was even wise for the Penguins to commit $25m to three forwards for the next 10 years in Malkin, Crosby and Parise).  Now the Flyers can breathe a sigh of relief, with both players going to the Western conference rather than strengthening a rival.  The real losers of these shenanigans were Detroit and Nashville, who fell short in pursuing Suter and the obvious Suter-Plan-B, Matt Carle.

Carle Signs in TB
-Speaking of Carle, he got a long contract from TB.  Flyers fans' initial reaction to this was that the Flyers blew it, by futilely chasing Suter and letting Carle get away.  I'm not sure I quite see it that way.

For one, it's not entirely tough luck the Flyers had not already signed him.  The fact is, they prioritized signing Grossmann and Coburn over signing Carle.  Two, the Flyers took a very strange stance, publicly touting that they believed they could sign Carle for below market value.

For months, I have written here repeatedly that if he got to free agency, someone was going to offer Carle $5m+ a year.  The signing of Wideman last week removed all doubt, and evidently caused Carle to reconsider any verbal agreement with the Flyers.  My bottom line is this; you can't fight the market with UFAs.  Once Carle decided to at least listen to free agent offers, the Flyers had no shot.  He was going to wait for Suter to sign, then get a big offer.  The Flyers pursuit of Suter made no difference, as by then Carle was in UFA mode and Carle was waiting for Suter before he would sign with anyone (including the Flyers).  At that point, the Flyers were not going to come close to TB's offer of $5.5m x 6 years.

Realistically, the Flyers had two options.  Sign Carle to ~$5m contract a few months ago and let either Grossmann or Coburn be exposed to UFA offers, or do what they did with Carle.   They chose the latter, and I'm not sure I would've done it differently.

Jagr Goes to Dallas
-Another effect of the exploding UFA market this season was Jagr getting a $4.5m deal from Dallas.  Again, there is no way the Flyers would offer that much.  I would've liked to see the Flyers resign him for something at or below last year's $3.3m contract, but again, you can't fight the market.

As it was, Jagr left and there was a lovefest on twitter between Jagr and his now ex-teammates.

Jaromir Jagr ‏@68Jagr

-Just to everybody knows:Max Talbot is the most underrated and underpaid player in NHL.Holmgren did a great job signing him last season.

-To@28CGiroux:Keep working and soon you will be the best player in NHL like I said.To@Hartsy19:work hard and you will score 40.

-Special thanks to my linemates Scotty and G.

-Thank you the Flyers for the opportunity you gave me.Thanks to all fans and teammates for great support! I had so much fun! Will miss you.

Matt Read ‏@MReader24

Was a pleasure play some puck with the legend himself @68Jagr. Best of luck in Dallas Mr. Positive #beauty #alwayssmiling

Oh well, I enjoyed having him around last year.

Gervais and Fedotenko

-Without digging to deeply to analyze these signings, they seem like good ideas to me.  Fedotenko's a very experienced vet who can play any forward position and have the full trust of the coach.  The cap hit is low, and there's basically no risk in a 1-year contract.

Regarding Gervais, another low risk move that could blossom nicely.  He's not going to play many minutes, but with a right-handed shot and his strength being puck movement, he could slot in nicely.  If he does have a bounceback season, the Flyers have him under contract next year for super-cheap as well.  Also, as an aside, Gervais and Talbot are apparently best buds, and Talbot will be Gervais's best man in his upcoming wedding.

The Picture
So merely assuming Voracek and Bourdon are signed, and the Flyers can use all of Pronger's LTIR allotment, this is the roster today:

That doesn't look too bad, but definitely not as strong as last year.  Up front, JVR and Jagr are out, replaced by 3rd liner Fedotenko.  In the back, Carle and his 20+ minutes are gone, replaced by Schenn and Gervais.  Again, the Flyers are going to be relying on young players to improve and maintain a high level of play.  Fortunately, the Flyers still have some flexibility here with ~$8m in cap space to use.

I like the Rick Tocchet plan, which may already be in effect; "If I were Flyers , I would have my attention on Doan and a couple of second tier d-man ...stay with the young core and grab Weber next year".

Doan and Weber would be big for this team, though whether either goes anywhere is up in the air.  Nashville will desperately want to keep Weber, but in one year he can do whatever he wants.  Doan wants to stay, provided ownership in Phoenix is stabilized.

Personally, I make aggressive offers to Doan for 2 or 3 years.  Hopefully higher dollars can substitute for that 4th year he wants, and that other teams will give him.

Regarding Weber, best case scenario for the Flyers is that he plays one more year in Nashville, then goes UFA.  The Flyers don't have much left to trade--I wouldn't trade Cooter under any circumstances, and I might've traded Schenn for someone like Weber, but that was before JVR and Jagr were gone.  The forwards corps now can't afford to lose Schenn.

The wisest thing for Nashville to do is offer Weber a huge contract, and if he doesn't take it, trade him.  They can't afford to lose Weber next year like they lost Suter this year.  Unfortunately, this makes it pretty hard on the Flyers to acquire him, in my opinion.

Draft Weekend Recap

Indeed, the pieces on the board began to move this weekend for the Flyers.  The rumors were getting crazy on Thursday, and the Flyer were supposedly in on everyone; Nash, Parise, Ryan, Suter, Weber, and trading up in the draft.  Ultimately, the Flyers made far less daring moves.

JVR
The move that was so heavily rumored in March finally came about.  For starters, I am on board with trading JVR.  He seems like a good kid, and he has the talent, I'm just not sure I see him producing consistently.  Often the only difference between a journey-man goal scorer and a top line allstar is consistency, and I think JVR will always be a streaky player.  He's not effective playing on the outside, and he's simply not a banger at heart.  Either way, I've previously written about his development here and here.

As for the particulars on this trade, I wrote about this in March, and not much has changed since...

On paper, the trade makes a lot of sense.  It is a like-for-like trade:
-both players were very high draft picks; JVR #2 in 2007 and Schenn #5 in 2008
-both players have made some noise in the NHL, with Schenn immediately joining the big club as an 18 year old and JVR turning a lot of heads in the playoffs last year
-both players may be seen as underwhelming in their development, with Schenn's ice time down this year and JVR not building off last year's playoffs
-both players are signed to manageable long term contracts

The Flyers need defensemen, the Leafs need size up front.  The trade is merely teams trying to address an organizational need while holding their salary, youth and long term potential constant.

All that said, the devil will be in details.  Flyers fans expect Schenn and other goodies for JVR, and Leafs fan vice-versa.  A rumor I read yesterday is that it will be the Flyers who have to sweeten the pot to complete the deal, and the Leafs want Matt Read.

No thanks on that one.  If that's the case I walk away.

http://mostlyflyers.blogspot.com/2012/01/jvr-for-luke-schenn.html


The Flyers top need was a physical dman, and they now have a promising young one.  A good, simple, hockey trade without a clear "winner" in my opinion.

Bobrovsky
Like JVR, I was ready to see Bob go.  I also wrote about this the other day.  Either way, I think his most likely career path is as a backup or journeyman starter.  He will now get a chance to prove himself in Columbus that he won't get here.

The Flyers should be happy with the trade return for him.  I think his reputation around the league has sunk a little bit over the last several months, and there was no way the Flyers were going to get the kind of return the Caps got for Varlamov last year---ultimately a fairly high first round pick in a deal that shocked a lot around the league.  Still, to salvage a mid-second round pick and two 4th rounders is a good return.  The Flyers definitely benefitted from other teams snatching up backup goalie candidates in the previous week, apparently allowing the Flyers to choose between Winnpeg's offer of the #39 pick, or the #45 pick and two 4th rounders from Columbus.

Incidentally, the Flyers drafted a goalie with the #45 pick.

Draft Picks
I will not pretend to know much about who the Flyers drafted.  Regarding their first round pick, it was mildly disappointing to see them take a center without high-end potential when they have rarely picked in the first round at all the last few years and desperately need defensemen in the system.  On the other hand, this player appears very likely to actually graduate to the NHL, and the Flyers have been amazing at picking winners late in the first round (Gagne, Williams, Giroux).  Scouts say this is a very poor draft class as well.

What Next?
First, this is how I see the Flyers cap situation;

To complete this, I guessed at a value for Voracek, and plugged in a backup goalie that may not be accurate, but the salary should be.  I also plugged in Carle at $4.25, although I find it hard to believe he will sign for so little, but people keep throwing it out there.  The takeaway is that the Flyers could have about $6 million or more to throw at a top-6 forward.

I think their pursuit of Nash is now dead.  JVR and Bob were their two major trading chips to get Nash, and they have been cashed in.  Personally, I think the Columbus GM is overplaying his hand, and as teams like the Flyers move on, the offers for Nash will now begin to get worse.  I wasn't a huge fan of Nash to Philly anyway.

The two major targets the Flyers could go after is Parise or Ryan.  Again, the Flyers don't have many assets left to trade for Ryan, so I'm not seeing it.  Regarding Parise, I think the Flyers have a lot of interest and will make an offer.  I have my doubts about how they'll fare in a bidding war on the open market, however.

The conservative course is to resign Jagr and pick up a role-player for the bottom two lines for about $5 million combined.  This is probably the wisest course in my opinion.  Granted, maybe the Flyers can't resign Carle or Voracek (silence is ominous regarding his extension, I think), and then all this needs to be re-evaluated.