GO TIME

The time has come. Will the Flyers "wake up" or "flip the switch"?

I have my doubts. It's not just a matte of desire. Your powerplay doesn't get more organized overnight. Bobrovsky's not going to make strides in his overall game this week that he hasn't been able to make in the last 7 months.

On paper, there is no doubt in my mind the Flyers are clearly superior. But Pronger looks to miss at least one game, Richards is sick, and who knows what else is going on. I think for me it's going to come down to 2 things; 1) the Flyers goaltending, 2) and the Flyers skating.

The Flyers quality of play is no longer superior enough such that they can withstand a bad goal or two and win. There won't be much margin of error for Bobrovsky, and I suspect if Bob struggles, by the time Laviolette gives up on him and brings in Boucher or Leighton it will be too late.

As for skaters, I want to see the Flyers drive their legs with the puck. The Flyers have become masters of the pull-up and stop play, looking for the pass. It's one thing for a guy like Leino who's game is based on that, but most players on the Flyers roster are far more effective when the legs are churning and they're going to the net. Hesitation and coasting will kill the Flyers in this series.

This could go either way, but right now I have to say the Sabres in 7.

Let's go Flyers, prove me wrong!!

East Playoff Picks

I'm not going to venture guesses as to the West, but here's the East. Book it.

First, a look at adjusted standings. These standings are re-done to simply call it a tie and award one point after the end of regulation, the logic being that aptitude to win 4v4 OTs or SOs is of no value in the playoffs. Here's the results;

Bruins - 100 points

Flyers - 100 points

Caps - 93 points

Penguins - 91 points

Lightning - 89 points

Habs - 88 points

Rangers - 81 points

Sabres - 81 points

Big hits for the Caps, Pens and Sabres, who are masters of the bonus points.

Caps v NY - The Caps are tough to nail down this year--down year for them and Ovechkin, or adjusting their style? I think in the end the Caps will prove too much for Rangers, and Ovechkin will turn it up. I also like what I see from Neuvirth. Caps in 6.

Flyers v Sabres - Tomorrow. ;)

Bruins v Habs - I see the Bruins sticking it to Habs physically. Tim Thomas has been unreal this year, and the Bruins attack style is unspectacular but consistent. Bruins in 5.

Pens v Lightning - The Lightning are a bit of wild card in my opinion, but I think in the end they have enough to overcome the Penguins. Without Malkin and Crosby, the Pens offense is very weak, and they went into the playoffs winning a bunch of low scoring games, often in extra time. I don't think that's a formula for success when the stakes are raised.

Not Good News on Pronger

There have been some rumors floating around about Pronger not being ready for the start of the playoffs, but I wasn't sure what to make of them and chose to be optimistic.

Given that Pronger is not practicing today, and that the Flyers put Matt Walker on re-entry waivers today, maybe the word that game 5 or game 6 is a "optimistic" return date is accurate.

Let's recap this mess;

-March 10, Pronger misses game with "upper body injury"

-March 12, Pronger gets wrist brace, then cast. Sits in press box with Homer for first time ever (according to Panaccio). Homer says he is day-to-day.

-March 14, Pronger doesn't shoot in practice.

-March 15, surgery, goes well, out 3-4 weeks.

-March 17, Pronger says he feels better, wants to get in a few games before playoffs (which start April 14)

-March 21, Pronger practices, no passing or shooting.

-March 23, Pronger in yellow caution jersey at practice

-March 24, Pronger "taking hard shots", 9 days after surgery.

-March 25, Pronger admits "overdoing with shots this week," has some pain.

-March 31, "setback", doubtful for regular season games.

-April 7, teammates says they expect him to be ready for playoffs.

It's hard to know what happened between March 25 and March 31, but taking slapshots on a broken hand less than 1.5 weeks into a 3-4 week recovery period was incredibly stupid. Is there anything more stressful on a broken hand than slapshots? If he misses playoff time (which is looking likely), the Flyers only have themselves to blame for being stupid.

Division Clinched

It was by the skin of their teeth, but the Flyers clinched the division for the first time in 6 years last night.

A playoff atmosphere at the arena last night and a perfect start before the Flyers found themselves down 4-3. I guess the Flyers should just take the win and move on. Very fitting however, that the line of Leino-Briere-Hartnell plus 4 points from Andrei Meszaros carried the day. Those are the guys that have been there doing it all regular season, and it wasn't Richards or Carter or came through with the big plays when the team needed them today.

So now that the Flyers are in the playoffs, the Flyers have about 4 days to answer some questions.

The issues;

-Zherdev. This one's pretty easy--he stays in the lineup. As long as he's not hurting the team with turnovers or bad penalties or the like, the team could use his stick skills and shooting.

-Briere. Seems to be healthy. Thank god.

-Richards & Carter. No injuries this year, time for Carter to be a go-to scorer in the playoffs. It hasn't been a terribly impressive regular season for Richards, but he should turn it up in the playoffs.

-Pronger. No way to really know what's going on with his injury, but I'd very surprised if he doesn't play in game 1 of the playoffs (with significant minutes).

-Power play. Still looking pretty scattershot.

-Goalies. Alas, the million dollar question, as it has been all season.

So, Goalies

All the indications the past few weeks were that Bobrovsky was Laviolette's guy, and he confirmed as much this week. A while back I decided that my preference was Boucher.

I see Bobrovsky and I see a goalie who hasn't figured it out yet. Regardless of what he is capable of long term, right now I see 3 major holes; 1) gets small and scrunchy on long shots, 2) has developed a disturbing tendency to have a gaping five hole when moving laterally on breakaways, and most importantly, 3) still loses track of the puck often and is caught unaware with traffic and when the puck is jammed in around the crease. The way he was pulled yesterday was very ugly for a goalie who is supposed to carry the load in the playoffs. Honestly, it reminds me of 1997, when in the final game of the season, Hextall was pulled after giving up 4 goals, and the team rallied behind Snow paving the way for Snow in the playoffs.

Given my lack of faith in Bobrovsky, is Boucher any better? Maybe, maybe not. I think if Boucher can stay 'quiet' in the crease, he's the better option. He's not really much more than a mediocre NHL goalie, but he should be mostly reliable.

Honestly I kind of wish Leighton had gotten a game, but I suppose Laviolette was trying to give the keys to his guy, and the Flyers had no breathing room to give Leighton a trial game anyway. Truthfully Leighton is just another not-quite-good-enough goalie on the Flyers payroll, but I do think his play the last few months of last season was better than what Boucher and Bobrovsky are providing right now.

Also, for anyone keeping score, Ray Emery was called up by the Ducks last month and finished the season 7-2 with a 926 save percentage. So much for the Emery as a low-risk high-reward signing, but it's hard to blame the Flyers for not carrying 4 NHL goalies in their ranks.

No matter who's in net, the Flyers inability to lock it down (read, the only NHL team without a shutout this year), is likely going to be their doom this year.

Crunch Time

The playoff nominally start in approximately 7 days, but the Flyers may as well already be in the playoffs with their slim 1 point lead on the Pens. Time to get stuff in order, period.

First, after Leighton cleared waivers yesterday, Laviolette took the unusual step (for him) to announce Bobrovsky was starting tonight and will start in the playoffs. Not surprising that Bob is the guy, but Holmgren said he wanted Leighton to play Friday or Saturday, which may not happen now. As I said yesterday, it seems odd to me that the Flyers would expose Leighton to waivers now for him to be an undressed 3rd goalie. Or maybe they had to do it now? Goaltending hasn't really been the problem, but I wouldn't rule out doing something drastic to shake things up if the Flyers continue to slowly sink.

Second, Holmgren apparently laid down law on the team in a private meeting. Per Tim Panaccio:

tpanotch Tim Panaccio

Hartnell: “Paul Holmgren can be a scary guy,” said Scott Hartnell. “Especially, when he gives you that look.”

tpanotch Tim Panaccio

Peter Laviolette thought Holmgren's message/address to the team was constructive and well-received

tpanotch Tim Panaccio

Flyers say GM HOLMGREN address to them yesterday was a bit scary. Intimidating ...some said

LOL. It's not as simple as yelling and deciding to play harder all of a sudden, but I don't think it could hurt.

Third, there are the injuries. Briere partially practiced yesterday, though his status for tonight is unclear. No signs of Pronger, but you have to think he'll be ready for actual playoff games. Betts is also out.

The time for excuses is over. Time for Richards to get in playoff form. Carter needs to prove he can score in the playoffs. Versteeg needs to find his niche on this team. Can JVR be more of a factor this year?

Leighton!!

Actual news! The Flyers called up Michael Leighton today.

Leighton will have to clear re-entry waivers to re-join the team. The basic facts regarding the Leighton situation:

-He is due to earn $1.6 million next year, and under the terms of re-entry waivers, any team that claims him is only on the hook for half his salary ($800k).

-Any team that claims Leighton cannot play him this season or playoffs however.

-If Leighton is claimed, the Flyers will carry half of his salary on their cap next year ($800k).

So will he be claimed? Leighton cleared waivers a few months ago to get down to the minors, but things have changed since then;

-Leighton's health was still a little unclear at the time

-Any team claiming Leighton would have been claiming him at a salary of $1.6 million, not $800k.

-Leighton has been playing pretty well in the AHL (2 straight shutouts, 8-2 in last 10 games for a terrible team).

-Teams have no need to add a third goalie midseason, but might be looking for a bargain backup for next season.

So what's the end result? Darren Dreger says:

The Flyers have lived without Leighton all season, at half price, based on feedback around the NHL, he's likely getting claimed on re-entry.

I'll just say it's a 50/50 shot he gets claimed. If he is not claimed, Holmgren says he will play this weekend.

The last question is, why now? One game from Leighton is not going to change Bobrovsky's hold on the starting job for the playoffs. Maybe if they had called up Leighton 6 weeks ago he could've stolen the job, but Bobrovsky has been pretty good recently. I guess if I were Brian Boucher I would not be feeling the love right now--it doesn't make sense for the Flyers to expose Leighton to waivers and an empty cap-hit for next season for him to be a third goalie who doesn't dress for games.

Of course the other issue is that the Flyers are in freefall, so it may not matter who's in net. Last night's 5-2 loss to one of the worst teams in the league with crucial points on the line was pathetic. The Flyers look like they've forgotten how to play hockey. I wouldn't simply say it's just plain lack of effort, but they seem to lack purpose and clarity in their play.

It's always been the case with guys like Richards and Pronger that their season is basically going to be judged on their playoff performance, but it's looking like it will be too much to ask to expect a meaningful sudden turnaround for this team before the playoffs start next week.

Be Afraid

I've been pretty busy recently, and there's no reason to beat a dead horse. This team is stumbling badly and are in imminent danger of dropping several spots for playoff standings.

A bad finish is by no means a guarantee of playoff failure (and vice versa), but the Flyers' play recently is very worrying. A month ago the Flyers looked like the class of the east, with the only real concerns for the playoffs being a disappointing power play and question marks in net.

Now the power play is downright awful and the team can't get a result, even when the goalies play well. Briere also has a sore groin, and those types of problems tend to linger for a while. This team is ripe for a first round exit at this rate.

Shootouts

The Flyers have also played a bunch of shootouts recently, losing all but one. Every Flyers fan knows they are bad at these, but just how bad?

3/17 v Atlanta - Boucher, 1-3

3/19 v Dallas - Bobrovsky, 5-6

3/22 v Washington - Boucher, 0-3 (perhaps the worst SO performance I've ever seen)

3/24 v Pittsburgh - Bobrovsky, 2-4

4/3 v New York - Bobrovsky, 0-2

That's a cumulative save percentage of 44.4% (8-18). Take away the Dallas game, and that percentage drops to 25%. Bear in mind that, since the shootout started, goalies make the save 67.5% of the time league-wide. The fact that the Flyers entered the playoffs last season by winning a shootout with Boucher over Henrik Lundquist is simply miraculous.