JVR Signs Extension

It's been a while since I posted anything, as I declined to post on topics such as Bryzgalov's goalie mask (which apparently upset some people, link), or dwell on why Nik Zherdev finds himself out of the NHL again.  Anyway, JVR's new contract extension is at least worthy of acknowledgment.

With a $4.25x6 year contract, JVR is under contract with the Flyers for the next 7 seasons, until he is 29 years old.  There are a few noteworthy details to all this.

First, many Flyers fans immediately noticed that he will be getting more than Claude Giroux, who resigned last year for $3.75x3.  Undoubtedly, Giroux had accomplished more in the NHL at the time of signing, and is more important to the Flyers right now.  There are two big reasons why this is the case.  The first is that the NHL free agent market blew up this offseason.  The cost of players jumped significantly, and that's just a fact.  Second, Giroux will be getting a big raise in 2 years at the age of 26.  As a result of this mid-20s RFA contract for Giroux, Giroux will be paid more than JVR for years 4-7 of the JVR's contractual period.  By signing a 6 year deal, JVR was forsaking the possibility of getting a raise as a mid-20s RFA.

Putting the Giroux comparison aside, it is also noteworthy that the Flyers made a pretty big commitment to JVR.  Six year contracts are no small thing, and it's not exactly a bargain basement cap hit either.  All this for a player with a career high of 40 points.  Obviously this deal is all about potential, and the Flyers are making a fairly large bet that JVR will begin to look more like the player who scored 7 goals in 11 playoff games, and had one of the best single-game individual performances by a Flyer in memory in game 2 versus the Bruins.  That player is a 40 goal scorer.  It would be unfair to expect JVR to jump from 21 goals to 40 based on 2 weeks in the playoffs last year, but 30+ will be the expectation next year, and 35-45/year should be the expectation for most of this contractual period.

The last item of note is making a very early preview the Flyers cap situation in the 2012-13 season.  The long and short of that is, presuming a modest rise in the salary cap, the Flyers will have around $12m to re-sign or otherwise fill the roster slots of Carle, Coburn and Jagr.

Buffalo Series Game 7 Review

Last night showed, that when you strip away all the nonsense about Pronger injuries and shocking goaltending, the Flyers are a much better team than the Sabres.  The Flyers jumped all over the Sabres, who almost survived until Miller let in an awful goal.  I guess that would make terrible goals allowed ~9-1 this series?

Outside of Game 1, in which I thought the Sabres did very well to keep the Flyers out of dangerous scoring areas, the Sabres haven't been able to slow down the Flyers attack.  This series went seven games based another shutout win on the back of Miller, and the worst goaltending you will see this time of year.

The one other big difference last night was blocked shots.  I don't have the statistics, but through the first 25 minutes of the game the Flyers blocked a ton of shots, protecting Boucher.  That is the kind of effort they will have to replicate against stronger competition.

Observations and other deep thoughts:

-I've ragged on Coburn a bit, but when push comes to shove he's a trusted defensemen.  He covered a lot of ground in game 6, and has one of the best all-around games among the flyers defensemen.

-Good first period from Richards, driving the net.  Skated less as the game went on.  I still say something is up with him physically, but he will battle and hopefully get healthier.

-Encouraging to see Pronger play meaningful minutes, though the fact the Flyers still dressed Syrvet (only to play 19 seconds) means they're keeping an eye on his still-mending health.  And did I see a note that Pronger went up the tunnel with <1 minute left in the game, and thus missed the handshake?  Not sure on that one, but would be kind of bush league if that's what happened.

-One more goal each for JVR and Briere.  

-Zherdev is trying, but you can tell the way he kind of haphazardly throws himself he has no idea how to throw a check.  Either way, earning his keep in the lineup and at this rate he'll bag a goal or two.

-No, I did not think the Flyers were going to get their first SO last night, even when it was 4-0 in the 3rd.

-I thought the Flyers power play hit a turning point in game 5, and last night took another step, as the Flyers power play looked like a real threat.  Pronger helps, but I also like moving Richards back and JVR to the front.

-Felt like "old' times with the Leino-Briere-Hartnell line, pinning the Sabres in their own end on many shifts.

-Leighton has fallen off the face of the earth apparently, and there was even a rumor (which Holmgren denied--big surprise) that Leighton had gone AWOL from the team after being pulled from game 6.  Not much makes sense to me.  Leighton has been a good a soldier, so I don't see why he would bolt after being rightfully pulled from game 6.  On the other hand, the Flyers handling on Leighton has been strange, sending to the minors for all those months, recalling him but not playing him in the regular season, then giving him a playoff start, then being the number 4 goalie the next day?  It's all hard to make sense of.  Either way, his chances of returning to the net these playoffs are basically zero, and we'll leave it at that.

Buffalo Series Game 5

Okay, I think I am sufficiently recovered to talk about the traumatic game last night.

My initial thought is that the Flyers spotted them two goals, and then Buffalo nicked a third after some questionable calls and a 4-on-3 (I thought we were done with the Flyers getting coincidental penalties when a Sabre punches them in the face and they literally turn around and don't even try to defend themselves--apparently not).  In my opinion, Buffalo did very little to earn that lead.   There's dirty goals, and there's lucky goals.  Scoring from the corner and behind the net when there's no traffic or other threat for the goalie to worry about is simply luck.

It was big gut check from the Flyers though, coming out in the 2nd and scoring 2 goals while outshooting Buffalo 11-0.  Nobody question the Flyers are capable of that kind of performance, but they regularly find ways to make that irrelevant.

The Flyers will have a tough game 6 in Buffalo, but I think they are likely to win.  Buffalo hasn't exactly staked a very strong claim to this series, winning 2 1-0 games and barely eeking out a win yesterday despite essentially being gifted a 2 goal lead.  The series is there for the taking, but the margin of error for the Flyers to leak backbreaking goals is officially zero now.  These untimely goal against have been a repeated theme for them this year, whether it be goaltending or something else, but hopefully they can go 2 straight games without one.

Comments and other deep thoughts:
-Another big effort from JVR.  I don't think there's any question that he and Giroux have been the Flyers' best forwards this series.  Really encouraging stuff for JVR for this year and beyond.

-I still think Coburn is playing lousy.  Only noticeable for a few terrible turnovers a game, not doing much else.

-That was the best the Flyers PP has played in a while.  No goals, but it actually looked like a power play.  I also liked getting JVR down low on it towards the end of the game.  Putting him at the point just because he won the hardest shot contest was kind of insane, and he's ready to compete physically in there with the big boys.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see Pronger on the PP Sunday, bad hand and all.

-I'll call it Zherdev's best game as a Flyer overall, and unquestionably his best defensive effort.  If he played like that every night he'd be $4 million/year guy in the NHL, not an unclaimed waivers player.  I thought he was gonna score in OT honestly.

-Might be time to give up on Richards looking like the Richards of past years this season.  I don't know what the problem is, but he's not skating, mucking and hitting the way he has done in past playoffs, and the odds of it materializing in game 6 are slim to none.

-And of course, goaltending.  I have been harping (obsessing?) about this topic all year, but at least now I know I wasn't crazy and wasting my breath.  It would've been somewhat crazy to think that after 82 games of groping for a goalie the Flyers would sort it out in a few playoff games.

Simply put, the Flyers goalies are not giving them a chance to win.  It's fine to say you don't need a standout goalie to win in the playoffs, but you're not winning jack with Bob's game 2 performance and Boosh's last night.

Boosh had to be pulled last night, but Leighton was not confidence inspiring in relief.  I don't know who starts in game 6, but does it really matter?  None of the Flyers' goalies are good enough, though I think Leighton is the best fit stylistically for this team (mainly just being a big body in there who can block the puck).  Laviolette can play pretty much whoever he feels like in game 6 because no goalie has made a case that he deserves the start.

Game 3 Review

Good win for the Flyers, which gives them (a little) breathing room in the series.  Last night was unquestionably the Sabres strongest challenge to the Flyers thus far, but Boosh was there when the team needed him and the team finished the game confidently in the 3rd period.

Comments and Observations:
-Better stuff from Richards and Carter, though I would stop short of saying breakout performances.  Carter got a lucky bounce leading the first goal, but it was nice to see him rifle a shot into the corner.  He was also around the puck a lot more.  As for Richards, a less dramatic improvement.  I previously said he's not getting around the ice very well and looks to have slow feet, and I don't think it's a coincidence that on his nice assist last night he never had to move his feet.  His mobility/endurance is still something I will be keeping an eye on.

-Another great game from JVR.  Looks so much more confident and stronger on the puck.

-Pretty good effort from Zherdev.  His goal was a tap-in, but he played a good game.

-Power play still has some work to do.  1-3 looks all well-and-good, but the one goal came on a lucky bounce, not exactly reproduce-able power play execution.  So far the Flyers have been the better 5-on-5 club, with the Sabres owning special teams.  Last night the Flyers killed a big 5-on-3, and breaking even on special teams was good enough to win the game for the Flyers.

-Very good game from Boucher.  He was 'quiet' in the crease, which is a key for him in my opinion.  He misplayed the Sabres second goal, but was strong overall in a game where the Sabres actually generated some consistent pressure for the first time this series.  Also, throwing off his loose mask on the 5-on-3 was a sneaky play.

-Coburn is making some bad turnovers in his own end.  He can play better.

Division Clinched

It was by the skin of their teeth, but the Flyers clinched the division for the first time in 6 years last night.

A playoff atmosphere at the arena last night and a perfect start before the Flyers found themselves down 4-3. I guess the Flyers should just take the win and move on. Very fitting however, that the line of Leino-Briere-Hartnell plus 4 points from Andrei Meszaros carried the day. Those are the guys that have been there doing it all regular season, and it wasn't Richards or Carter or came through with the big plays when the team needed them today.

So now that the Flyers are in the playoffs, the Flyers have about 4 days to answer some questions.

The issues;

-Zherdev. This one's pretty easy--he stays in the lineup. As long as he's not hurting the team with turnovers or bad penalties or the like, the team could use his stick skills and shooting.

-Briere. Seems to be healthy. Thank god.

-Richards & Carter. No injuries this year, time for Carter to be a go-to scorer in the playoffs. It hasn't been a terribly impressive regular season for Richards, but he should turn it up in the playoffs.

-Pronger. No way to really know what's going on with his injury, but I'd very surprised if he doesn't play in game 1 of the playoffs (with significant minutes).

-Power play. Still looking pretty scattershot.

-Goalies. Alas, the million dollar question, as it has been all season.

So, Goalies

All the indications the past few weeks were that Bobrovsky was Laviolette's guy, and he confirmed as much this week. A while back I decided that my preference was Boucher.

I see Bobrovsky and I see a goalie who hasn't figured it out yet. Regardless of what he is capable of long term, right now I see 3 major holes; 1) gets small and scrunchy on long shots, 2) has developed a disturbing tendency to have a gaping five hole when moving laterally on breakaways, and most importantly, 3) still loses track of the puck often and is caught unaware with traffic and when the puck is jammed in around the crease. The way he was pulled yesterday was very ugly for a goalie who is supposed to carry the load in the playoffs. Honestly, it reminds me of 1997, when in the final game of the season, Hextall was pulled after giving up 4 goals, and the team rallied behind Snow paving the way for Snow in the playoffs.

Given my lack of faith in Bobrovsky, is Boucher any better? Maybe, maybe not. I think if Boucher can stay 'quiet' in the crease, he's the better option. He's not really much more than a mediocre NHL goalie, but he should be mostly reliable.

Honestly I kind of wish Leighton had gotten a game, but I suppose Laviolette was trying to give the keys to his guy, and the Flyers had no breathing room to give Leighton a trial game anyway. Truthfully Leighton is just another not-quite-good-enough goalie on the Flyers payroll, but I do think his play the last few months of last season was better than what Boucher and Bobrovsky are providing right now.

Also, for anyone keeping score, Ray Emery was called up by the Ducks last month and finished the season 7-2 with a 926 save percentage. So much for the Emery as a low-risk high-reward signing, but it's hard to blame the Flyers for not carrying 4 NHL goalies in their ranks.

No matter who's in net, the Flyers inability to lock it down (read, the only NHL team without a shutout this year), is likely going to be their doom this year.

Baby Steps

Put the Chara hit aside for a moment, which has everyone hyperventilating, and last night was a good step in the right direction for the Flyers last night. Second win in a row, after a fairly sleepy win over the atrocious Oilers.

More importantly, the Flyers were skating harder for the entire game. It was still a close game where the Flyers benefited from a garbage goal, but the Flyers generated more chances, hit a few posts, and looked a little more purposeful on the power play.

Individual player thoughts;

-Really could stuff from Carter, using his speed and size, and evidently filling a need the Flyers have really missed recently.

-Carcillo has likely earned his spot in the lineup for the time being, as there's no reason to take him out for Nodl or Zherdev.

-I'm not really pleased with Richards offensive zone play. Overhandling the puck, and constantly trying very low percentage diagonal passes, especially on the PP.

-No Pronger, and apparently he let loose after the Oilers win, not being satisfied. Apparently Giroux was one of his targets? Not sure. I wouldn't say Giroux was bad against the Oilers, though he did pass up many good shooting opportunities for bad passing decisions.

Chara

The Chara controversy is still boiling. Probably influenced by the fact that it happened in Montreal to a hometown player, the PM of Canada is commenting, Air Canada is making threats about abandoning the league, and there is an open police investigation.

People need to simmer down. My opinion of the hit hasn't changed since my last post, where I said Chara bears some responsibility for not better recognizing his surroundings and letting up, but there just isn't much evidence of intent on a freak occurrence. In particular, a criminal investigation where the police would have to show Chara did something well beyond the type of contact a hockey player accepts the risk for AND that Chara intended to injure, seems like a complete waste of time. Still, the NHL doesn't look good by giving him no suspension whatsoever, and Bettman makes d-bag comments responding to Air Canada.

As lawyers say, bad facts make bad law, ie if we attempt to tailor rules to a freak or unusual circumstance, the rule ultimately doesn't work very well when applied elsewhere down the road. The NHL has to take a hard look at many things revolving around league discipline, head injuries, and IMO Bettman's leadership for on-ice issues, but this is not a good hit to make a rallying cry around league actions for head injuries. That said, no one is happy with league discipline actions, and it should be addressed in a meaningful way in the offseason (IMO house cleaning of leadership positions, but that's a topic for another day).

Zherdev Clears

I said yesterday I thought Zherdev would probably be claimed, but if he wasn't, it would absolve the Flyers from criticism on their handling of Zherdev. Looks like the latter turned out.

Kind of funny how it all turned out, with some philly sportswriters let it rip on Zherdev.

Tim Panaccio;

Zherdev declines to talk. Gets in Lincoln town car and off he goes. He was smiling. Hollmgren says agent wanted Z waived

never saw a guy so happy to get waived.

My favorite Zherdev moment: He tells Holmgren he wont talk to me because "that guy is Russian mob." Homer tells him, "he's Italian."

Grinning ear-to-ear for the first time in weeks, Zherdev left the building saying “No” to interviews, hopped in a black Lincoln Town Car, and rode off into the sunset

....

For more than a month, Holmgren had tried to trade Zherdev, but was unsuccessful.
“His agent and Nik obviously they’re not very happy with the situation and asked us to look around for options; nothing really came of that through trade,” Holmgren said. “We’ll see what happens with this.”

...

He was a healthy scratch for six consecutive games under coach Peter Laviolette, who makes just one demand of his players: Make a consistent effort

....

“It was a little bit of an experiment,” Holmgren said. “Seeing what he can do. For a period of time it was good.
“Obviously, he has 15 goals and limited power play time, limited minutes, but over the course of time here, things have eroded and Nik’s work ethic has dropped off. Right now, he’s just not fitting in.”

...

Holmgren also said Zherdev didn’t “respond the right way” to being a healthy scratch.
There was no way Laviolette was going to play Zherdev again as a Flyer.

...

Incidentally, though Zherdev had a driver’s license, he used a limo service to and from practices and games the entire time he was here because he did not have a car.

Frank Seravalli;

Never really seen anything like it. Zherdev bolted out the side door to avoid media and hopped in a limo and left with a smile on his face.

After clearing, it appears Zherdev will stay with the Flyers. Who knows when he will play again.

Zherdev out

So it finally happened. The Flyers waived Nik Zherdev today.

He has 15 goals and obvious talent, but was unreliable and never was more than fringe player on the squad.

I previously wrote that I thought he had little trade value, but could be a wildcard off the bench in a playoff series or could be traded for a depth defensemen. Perhaps the Flyers had enough of his attitude issues and gave up on pursuing a trade.

Of course the reaction of many fans will be 'OMG, he has 15 goals, so much better than Nodl or Powe!"

I do think it's likely the he gets claimed off waivers. Surely some team out there is looking for a rental to boost their secondary scoring with a highly skilled player like Zherdev. If he isn't claimed, I guess that absolves the Flyers from most criticism they could receive for getting nothing in return for Zherdev.

The only question on my mind is, was his attitude that disruptive? For now I will presume the Flyers have other plans for his newly available cap space, rather than simply dumping a skilled depth player.

QUICK UPDATE:

Tim Panaccio on Twitter: "Flyers brass met all morning; Zherdev waived. Will Walker try to come back? Flyers needs 7th def"

I don't know Walker's status right now, but waiving Zherdev and calling up Walker is kind of like trading Zherdev for a depth defensemen, as was speculated. *shrugs*

Trade Deadline Looming

There has been far more trade activity in the weeks leading up the trade deadline than is traditional in the NHL. The Flyers have already made their big move by getting Versteeg, but look for them to try and add a depth defensemen at low cost. Perhaps for Zherdev?

After watching Jody Shelley dress over healthy scratch Nik Zherdev - and his 15 goals - twice in the last week, many were left wondering whether we have seen the last of Zherdev in a Flyers uniform.

Some rumors had the Flyers waiving Zherdev and his $2 million salary to create room under the salary cap. Another rumor, from Russian reporter Dmitry Chesnokov, said yesterday that six NHL teams have contacted the Flyers about obtaining Zherdev's services before next Monday's trading deadline.

"I must have missed those calls," Paul Holmgren deadpanned.

Despite missing 12 games this season as a healthy scratch, Zherdev would still lead the Ottawa Senators in scoring. That's an insurance policy Holmgren won't exactly give away, in case of injury.

"Yeah, I would be [reluctant]," Holmgren said. "A little bit. Because he's a highly skilled player. And, in case something happens, it'd be difficult from an insurance standpoint."

Zherdev has clearly fallen out of favor with coach Peter Laviolette - and the Flyers couldn't even find Zherdev in Raleigh, N.C., on Friday night when Mike Richards came down with a stomach illness after warmups.

"We were scrambling around, about 8 minutes before the game and the only guy they could find was Jody," Holmgren said. "I think Nikolay has struggled with being in and out of the lineup. Perhaps his work ethic has dropped in practice as a result. But he needs to tough it out here and work hard if he wants to get back in the lineup."

Read more: http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/flyers/20110222_Leino_sets_aside_salary_talks_so_Flyers_can_add_Versteeg.html#ixzz1Ei4Hwnob
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As I said before, Zherdev for a low-level defensemen makes sense to me.

Will also be interesting to see how Bartulis plays the next two weeks with O'Donnell injured. I've never been a big fan of Bartulis, and was surprised when the Flyers signed him to a multi-year contract after playing in just a few NHL games. I guess we'll see if he's trustworthy for spot duty in the playoffs.

And then there's Leino (my current obsession on this blog).

Not wanting to ruffle the feathers of Leino, his biggest playoff hero last year (seven goals, 14 assists), Holmgren asked Leino how he would feel about the team pulling the trigger on a deal. Now, Versteeg is here - and Leino is stuck until the offseason. Even so, it was a no-brainer for Leino, who makes more than only Darroll Powe, Oskars Bartulis and Blair Betts.

"He's got to sit tight now," Holmgren said. "We have about $2 million in tagging space, so that's probably not enough to get it done right now.

"I think there's an open dialogue. I think my conversations with Ville and his agent, he wants to be here. He knows we want him here. That's a topic for another day."

Read more: http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/flyers/20110222_Leino_sets_aside_salary_talks_so_Flyers_can_add_Versteeg.html#ixzz1Ei4Hwnob
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And;

Holmgren reiterated that there is not enough room to sign Leino until after the season. He does not expect any problems resigning the winger.

Read more: http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/flyers/20110222_Flyers_Notes___Flyers__O_Donnell_to_be_out_up_to_two_weeks.html#ixzz1Ei4NhQbC
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Interesting. Not to beat a dead horse, but there is no cap room to sign Leino without moving a significant piece off the current roster. It is also possible the Flyers are resorting to new tactics to convince Leino to resign;

After Versteeg, what now?

Versteeg has yet to actually play for the Flyers, but that won't prevent a "day after" post.

First, I am pretty confident that the Flyers won't be able to sign Leino now that they've committed $3 million more to another player next season.

Second, will the Flyers move anybody else? I think that's what a lot of people are waiting for. They have more forwards than they need, and Carcillo and Zherdev aren't going to have very prominent roles sans injuries. On the other hand, I think each player has little trade value and the Flyers don't need to dump salary if they don't want to.

Eklund at hockeybuzz says Zherdev might go on waivers soon. As an Eklund rumor, it is slightly more believable than a story my 4-year old niece might make up.

Personally, I think Zherdev is a mentally lazy player. When he gets room on the rush, his stickhandling and shooting is unmatched on the Flyers roster. The rest of the time, he's slow to react and has lapses in concentration at both ends of the ice. Because he can score, he'd be an attractive waiver wire option to teams, but I can't see many teams giving up an asset of any value to acquire him. I'd love to be wrong, however. For that reason, I'd hang on to Zherdev, because I think he has value as a wildcard that can keep opposing teams off balance over the course of a long series.

Maybe the Flyers are looking a few other options, but I doubt there will be much of consequence coming back to the Flyers. There's just no room among the skaters, and what goalie options are there? If they really wanted to do something big, they could trade JVR, who the Leafs reportedly wanted. I'm glad they didn't, and I expect they're not pursuing options down that road.

UPDATE: Maybe the Flyers will trade Zherdev for another defensemen? Zherdev for a team's bottom pair guy (who would be a #7 on the Flyers) is plausible. From the reliable Dreger Report:

Kris Versteeg gives the Philadelphia Flyers another top nine offensive weapon and sends a direct message to all of Philadelphia's rivals - the Flyers believe this is the year.

Paul Holmgren is still looking for a defenceman to round out his roster, but landing Versteeg was a priority for the Flyers GM.

Brian Burke was keenly interested in forward James Van Riemsdyk, but Holmgren made it clear that JVR was not going to be part of this deal.

Philadelphia is stronger today and because of that, Boston, Tampa Bay and all teams who consider themselves contenders may now be eagerly trying to measure up.

Another team source involved in trade discussions says as soon as the Versteeg trade to Philly was announced, his phone started ringing.

Flyers do some tweaking

The Flyers have waived Matt Walker, removing his $1.7 million salary from their cap hit.

Panaccio also tweets;

As I speculated weeks ago, sources say the Flyers would make a play for Erik Cole at deadline. Walker move may be start

CAR would not deal Cole if Rutherford feels he has a chance. Month away from deadline but #Flyers are interested in him

Erik Cole is 32 years old, pending UFA with a $2.9 million cap hit. He's not a high end scorer, but he complements high end players well, and can be a physical and productive player in that role. His best years came when playing with Eric Staal in Carolina, under then Carolina coach Peter Laviolette.

I have no reason to doubt what Panaccio reports. The trickier part is where the teams can meet on a deal. As with the Langenbrunner trade interest, the Flyers forward situation remains crowded, and they don't have much trade bait. What Carolina wants back in a trade could vary widely by how close they are to a playoff spot.

Aside from the Flyers probably throwing some picks to Carolina, the most easily identifiable trade candidates on the Flyers are Carcillo, Zherdev and Nodl. Personally, I wouldn't trade Nodl. He's young, cheap, is one of the best skaters on the team, strong on the puck, and is smart and very good defensively. Second, I really can't see the Canes having much interest in Carcillo, though I could be wrong there.

That leaves Zherdev. The chances of him resigning with the Flyers are very low I think. He's scored some pretty goals this year, but hasn't yet staked out a clear role on this team. Might Zherdev's high-end offensive ability tempt the Canes? Possible.

Zherdev and a mid-round pick for Cole seems the most plausible possibility to me. Either way, no trade will be imminent, and both the Flyers and Canes will see how things play out the next few weeks and reassess their needs and options.