Laviolette Fired, But Blame Homer for this Mess

I was prepared this morning to write a post about how the Flyers horrid start this season is not very surprising.  I was going to point out that, this season, the Flyers have been outscored 6-1 at 5-on-5 for a goal ratio of 0.17 (which is 29th, technically ahead of the Rangers, who have only played one game, which resulted in no 5-on-5 goals for a ratio of 0.00).  I was going to point out that, thus far, the Flyers have similarly been outscored 6-1 in the 3rd period, which is dead last in the league.

I was then going to say this shouldn't be altogether surprising. because last year the Flyers were 25th in 5-on-5 goal differential (0.86).  They were -15 in the 3rd period last year, which was 28th in the league.  In short, these are old problems, and the team largely looks the same as it did in the preseason anyway.

Lastly, I was also going to say why would you fire Laviolette after 3 games?  Again, I'll refer back to my post from March stating that it was time for a change.  The thing is, deciding a change is necessary is one thing, and doing it properly is another.  Whatever reason Holmgren had for sticking with Laviolette all this time, 3 regular season games couldn't possibly have changed everything (and I've stated above that haven't really changed much of anything, actually).

The proper way to do a coaching change is in the offseason.  Then, you have the most candidates available to choose from, and the new coach has the offseason and training camp to prepare for the season.  Firing a coach 3 games into the season is basically a GM admitting he bungled the situation.  Badly.

But here we are, and I suppose I can't be too upset.  The Flyers have looked like the worst team in the NHL thus far.  On paper, they should at least be a top-20 team, so what's the worst that could happen?  Nevertheless, I have to wonder how much structural change can be brought to a team with a midseason coaching change, that also promotes a guy already on the coaching staff (Berube).

I can now watch the game tomorrow with some interest.  Watching the Montreal and Carolina games were absolutely awful, and the Flyers looked like lame ducks.  At least they'll have some new urgency.  The problem is that Holmgren is 2/3 months late in acknowledging that things were broken, and I'm not sure the Flyers can change course as necessary in mid-season with an interim coach.

(CORRECTION: Berube is not getting the interim tag)

It Begins

I guess it's time to get off my ass and write something here, being that the season starts tonight.  Woohoo!

I'm still firmly in wait and see mode, but I will say that I see this year's Flyers team as a borderline playoff team.  I'd put the chances of them making the playoffs at a little below 50%.  This partly has to do with a horrific preseason, but moreso because I'm reading it together with last season.  Hardcore Mostly Flyers readers will recall this post of mine, and my opinions really haven't changed since this time.

I am very worried about the Flyers ability to score at 5-on-5.  The Flyers just don't attack with efficiency and purpose.  Whether it's coaching, motivation, or talent, the Flyers often look apathetic and aimless.

There are tangible reasons I can say to myself why it should be better this year.  Lecavalier has 61 even strength points over the last 2 years, while Briere only 42 during that time.  Hartnell is in the best shape of his life after being injured and unprepared last season.  Brayden Schenn (who shall hereafter be referred to as "Bo", mainly because I want to have the brothers Bo and Luke on the Flyers roster) and Cooter are a year older.

The defense, however, did not get much of a makeover, and is curiously still bloated with 8 defensemen on the roster.  I've been waiting for a trade on that count for months.  Something's got to give there.  Streit is a PP specialist, but he's been on the second PP unit thus far because the old first unit was so effective last year, and he may not get much more than 3rd pair even strength minutes.  This is a not a sea change for a defense that appeared ill-equipped last season.

While the goalie tandem of Mason and Emery should provide the most uncertainty (in an entertaining fashion, for better or worse), the million dollar question is Laviolette's leash.  Can he survive a slow start?  I won't beat a dead horse with my opinion on the matter, but I think Laviolette has more to prove than the players  That's never a good thing.

Okay, now I have all my fretting out of the way.  Let a fun season begin!

Fire Laviolette?

And the survey says....yes.  I didn't want to disappoint my readership and leave this questing hanging, and moreover if he's going to get fired during this season, it might happen now that the Flyers have several days off.  Yes, I know Holmgren has recently given Laviolette the dreaded vote of confidence, but I don't think that's worth much.

Things with the Flyers are disappointing enough that most fans are pointing the finger at Laviolette.  Flyers fans are not a patient lot, but I think it makes sense this time around.

-For one, it's that time.  The average NHL coach lasts less than 3 seasons.  They are hired to be fired, and everyone knows this.  Laviolette is approaching 250 games coached with the Flyers, which is about how long his predecessors in Philadelphia lasted.

More to the point though, Laviolette is a yeller, and it seems he has lost "the room."  His uptempo attacking system demands a lot of the players, and the Flyers have been unable to consistently provide that effort.  Too often, the Flyers put in a great 10 minutes and quit until Laviolette screams at them.  It's like kids who act out as soon as their parents give them any breathing room.  It's not sustaining, and that lack of sustainability may be contributing to the Flyers awful 1-6 record when tied after 2 periods.

Also, consider Laviolette's previous jobs.  In his first season in Long Island he led them to their first playoff appearance in several seasons, but only lasted one more year after that.  In Carolina, in his first full season in charge they finished first in their division and won the cup.  2.5 mediocre years followed and he was fired.  Philadelphia continues the pattern, reaching the finals after taking over midseason, and he followed that up with a first place finish the next regular season.  The pattern seems clear; cracking success early, followed by diminishing returns thereafter.  It probably isn't wise to expect a revival under Laviolette next year.

-Second, his system is not working with this group of players.  The Flyers sorely lack puck carriers on the back end, and are not the fastest most skillful lot in general.  The makeover to the defense has actually involved Carle leaving, and big slow physical players like Schenn and Grossmann arriving.  Laviolette's system requires constant pressing, and these guys are not equipped to do so.

This system is not wide-open offense, but there are a few things that shouldn't happen when successfully instituted;
-A team that successfully presses shouldn't capitulate when falling down 1-0.  Laviolette teams are usually top 10 in this category.  The Flyers are currently 23rd.
-A team that successfully presses should get a fair amount of 5-on-5 goals.  Successful Laviolette teams are often top 5 in this category.  The Flyers are currently 22nd.


None of this is to say that the Flyers would be a juggernaut with a different coach.  They're better than this though, and I think it's time to move on.

State of the Flyers

As I see it, there are two burning questions for the Flyers at the moment.  One, should Laviolette be fired?  Two, should Couturier be traded?  The question of if the Flyers should trade to bolster this year's playoff run is no longer a reasonable question; the answer is an emphatic no.

Before getting to those burning questions, let's review the state of the Flyers through a few illustrative statistics.

-The Flyers power play is 6th overall.  After a terrible start to the season, the Flyers power play is now terrific, and operates near 30% at home.  Count this as one problem solved.

-Similarly, the penalty kill has rebounded to 11th in the league, and is a quality unit.  The problem is, the Flyers have been shorthanded 114 times, worst in the league.

-The Flyers collapse when they fall behind.  When the opponent scores first, the Flyers only win 20% of the time, 25th in the league.  When trailing after 2 periods, the Flyers are 1-10 (9.1%), 27th in the league.  Most shockingly, the Flyers are 0-10 when trailing after the first period!

-Unfortunately, I cannot find stats for when teams are tied after 2 periods.  I suspect the Flyers would be at the bottom of the league in points earned in such situations.

-The Flyers are a bad 5-on-5 team, with a goal differential of .8.  That is also 25th in the league. More concerning than absolute goal difference however, is that the Flyers are 22nd in 5-on-5 goal scoring.  An uptempo attacking team should be scoring goals, win or lose.

-I would not have guessed it, but the Flyers do a pretty good job when leading after 2 periods, winning 91.7% of the time.  This is 6th in the league.

-The Flyers actually block a lot of shots; 4th in the league.

-The Flyers are a solid 8-4-1 at home, but are 4-11-0 on the road.

So with that in mind, I will follow with a post on Laviolette this weekend.

Reality Setting In

So I've been saying it for over a month, but this is not a good hockey team.  Apparently it took many fans and media this long to come to this conclusion, but now panic and hand-wringing abounds.

The Flyers' "rivalry" week against top eastern teams has been a decisive failure.  The Flyers enjoyed first period leads of 2-1 and 4-1 respectively against the Rangers and Penguins, but then were outscored 7-0 in the remainders of those games.  Against the Bruins, the Flyers never got off the mark and took a meek 3-0 loss.

Many things are going wrong.  The players appear to have given up on Laviolette.  Bryzgalov has not been sharp.  Couturier's confidence is extremely low.  Overall frustration grows.  While I will look at some of these issues in more detail in upcoming posts, suffice it to say things are looking quite bleak.

If there's any question as to how this season will progress, consider these cold hard numbers.

--The last few years, it has taken approximately 1.12 points per game to earn a playoff spot in the east.  In this shortened 48 game season, that equals 53/54 points.

--The Flyers currently have 23 points in 26 games.  This equals .88 points per game, which puts the Flyers 12th out 15 teams in the East.

--To reach 53 points, the Flyers must earn 30 points in their final 22 games, or 1.36 points per game.  This is equivalent to Pittsburgh's current record, 3rd best in the East.

Does anyone think this team is capable of performing as the third best team in the east the remainder of the season?  I didn't think so.  This team is not making the playoffs.

Out of Sorts

0-3 last night, and 0-3 on the season.  Another pretty ugly loss last night.  The Flyers aren't getting killed or run out of the building in these losses, but they're sloppy and at times it feels futile.  Now some have turned and said "but the Flyers started 0-3 in the last lockout season, and ultimately went to the conference finals!"  The reality is that that Flyers team started 3-7-1, and after back to back 3-0 losses to Ottawa and Florida, two of the worst teams in the league at the time, Clarke traded Mark Recchi.  I doubt Holmgren has any similar tricks up his sleeve to acquire a #1 defensemen along with a player who would score 50 goals three years in a row.

What is the problem?  There are many;

-No chemistry amongst the forwards, and the chances they do get, there's no finish.  No one is shooting with confidence or showing any creativity, other than Giroux.

-Young players who played during the lockout look out of sorts.  Couturier has really struggled, and Read has been pretty invisible.  Schenn has some good moments, but not enough.

-The defense looks haggard.  Grossmann is really laboring, struggling with forecheckers, the puck, and notably getting outskated.  Timonen isn't doing much.  Schenn has been average, Mesz has been pretty good, and Coburn can only do so much himself.

-General disorganization.  Failed coverage on faceoffs has led to goals.  Failed coverage down low has led to goals.  Special teams have been terrible.  The Flyers have also been burned by bad changes.  All this in 3 games.

-Bad bounces.  It's hard to say how much is teams making their own luck, but the first period against the Devils was probably their best this season, yet they trailed 2-0 after it.  Against Buffalo, there were 3 questionable calls in the crease directly leading to goals or potential goals, and all three went in Buffalo's favor.

-Bad first periods.  The first 15 minutes against the Penguins were terrible, leading to a 2-0 hole.  Another slow start in the Buffalo game creating a 1-0 deficit, and another 2-0 hole last night.  Outscored 5-0 in the first period so far this season.


I'm not sure what the remedy is here, as Laviolette did the line shuffling prior to the New Jersey game  Maybe throw in Leighton and see if the team responds?  I think the most important thing right now is to focus on special teams, where they've been outscored 7-1 in just three games.  That is inexcusable.

And We're Back...

Tomorrow, it's finally back to hockey.  It should be a pretty fun home opener against the Pens.  The Pens of course are coming off their first round loss to the Flyers last year, in which their contempt for the Flyers caused them to completely lose their nerve.  30 goals against in 6 games was the result.  Remarkably, this will be the Pens 8th straight game against the Flyers, with no other opponents in between.

But enough about the Pens.  The Flyers won't have any time to get in game shape, as its trial by fire with an incredibly busy schedule, kicking off with 5 games in 8 days.  Fortunately, there is a lot of consistency with last year's roster, and most player's on the roster have been playing in Europe or the minors.  However, with Briere out and Meszaros questionable, the exact lineup is still a work in progress.  It appears the Flyers will start the season with the following:

The big questions on my mind;

-That lineup is scary young down the middle.  At 25, Giroux is the old man.  Cooter, Laughton and Wellwood only have 136 career NHL games between the 3 of them!!  Things will look a little different once Briere comes back (with his 921 games played), but in some ways, he is the least reliable of all of them.

-Will Scott Laughton stick around?  He was hardly a prized draft pick, but he looks to be one of the few players from this year's draft to play in the NHL this year.  After he plays in 5 games, the Flyers must send him back to the juniors, or lose a year on his entry-level contract.  Due the condensed schedule, that is only 8 days.

-How much can be expected from Cooter and Schenner?  They put up solid numbers on a dreadful Phantoms team in the AHL.  That should be expected from top prospects, and basically they were the entire offense for the team.  Cooter is still only 19 however.  I think it's time for Schenn to live up to his billing from the last few years.  I recall that I thought he was the Flyers's best player in game 1 versus Pitt last year, until Asham ran him and slowed him down.

-Who will be the 6th defensemen?  Right now it's newly signed Kurtis Foster, who looked to be having a promising career until it was derailed by injuries over the last few seasons.  I wouldn't mind seeing the big man wind-up on the PP a few times though.  A total x-factor is the possibility of signing Redden.  He's been parked in the AHL the last 2 years due to his enormous contract, but the Rangers have now bought him out and he's free to sign anywhere, likely on a one year deal.  He's 35 now, and I'm not sure how much he has left, but I presume he could fit in on several teams' bottom pair.  I don't know how real the Flyers interest in him may be, but they sniff around everything and there's not much to lose with a one-year deal.  Either way we'll find out today.  If he does sign, he'll battle it out with Foster for the #6 spot, and Gervais will be the 8th defensemen.

-Can Simmonds match the pace of his career high in goals?  Can Hartnell match the pace of his career high in goals?  Can Read avoid the sophomore slump?  I'll say yes, probably slightly off, and yes.

-Is Bryzgalov focused and ready?  It's not unusual for big ticket signings to struggle in their first season in a new town.  No doubt, Bryz bungled it in many ways.  Still, I think he can turn it around and be a top goalie again.  He didn't impress as a third wheel in the KHL during the lockout, and it seems he was never really focused there honestly.  It won't all be smooth sailing, but I think he'll have a solid season.  If not, I'm not sure what the Flyers will do.  Lure Tim Thomas out of his sabbatical?

-Will Laviolette tighten things up defensively?  I wrote about this last year, and I was hardly the only one to point it out.  This year, it appears that Snider expects the team to tighten up on defense, and help Bryz more.  I don't know if they're going to do that, but I think it would be a good idea.


The Flyers are saddled in the toughest division and hockey.  The Rangers and Pens are probably the two biggest favorites in the East, and the Devils are coming off a trip to the finals.  Expectations for the Flyers won't be as high, and maybe that's a good thing.  Either way, it'll be interesting...

The Offseason Plan

THE SETUP

Here is my best guess as to what the Flyers base lineup will be.

Notes to this chart
-Nearly all of these salary numbers are final, except for Bourdon and Voracek.  They are RFAs, and I have guessed at salaries for them
-Pronger, Kubina, Carle and Jagr are not in this lineup.
-A salary cap of $69 million, which is a number that has been thrown around.  Obviously with the CBA expiring things could get interesting regarding the cap.


THE ISSUES

-Is Jagr coming back?
That is the first question to answer.  If the season ended in January, I would say definitely.  He looked tired and beat up as the season carried on though, and his role was reduced.  Jagr loved everything about playing for the Flyers this year, and he sounds like he wants one more year in the NHL, but he won't sign here unless he feels he will get significant minutes.  He signed with the Flyers against expectations last year because he thought it was a good "hockey fit", and he will leave if that "hockey fit" no longer applies.

-The Defense
By signing Grossmann to an extension, the Flyers took care of their top offseason priority in April.  That seems like a decent contract, provided his knees hold up.  The Flyers still need help back here though, with Pronger seemingly done, and Timonen is at the end of his career, undersized, and has not survived an 82 game season without sustaining performance-inhibiting injuries the last 2 seasons.
I don't think Carle will be back, because someone will be willing to give him $5m+ a year for several years, and I don't think the Flyers should be that team.  You never know though with the way Clarke is talking. There's also a (very) small chance Timonen could retire, freeing up his $6.3m salary, and the Flyers could chase Suter for big money.
Lastly, I've seen spitballing the Flyers could trade for someone like Weber, would involve trading significant assets.  Such a move fits the Flyers MO, and while it would hurt to trade away more picks and young forwards, a defense corps with Coburn, Carle and Weber could be rock solid for several years.  So many variables to that though...

-Size up front
The Flyers score a ton of goals, but their forward corps is small and not very physical.  A big body for the 2/3rd line (who plays big) would balance the roster.

-Goaltending
Nothing to discuss here really.  Bryzgalov did not have a good year overall, but I expect improvement next year now that he knows what to expect in Philly.  His instincts with the media are wrong for the town, but he's figuring it out.
If you recall, at the end of February, Bryzgalov made comments about "finding the peace in his soul" to play in this city.  Most commented that this was a very troubling sign reflecting a discouraged player, and I said it was a good sign.  For the record, on the day of that comment, Bryzgalov's save percentage stood at .898.  After that comment, he had a spectacular month of March and had a .929 save percentage for the remainder of the season.  He will still makes gaffes, but now he knows the lay of the land in Philly and will be better for it.


THE PLAN

There are a ton of ways you could go, but this is what I would do:

-Trade JVR, preferably for an up-and-coming dman.  I'm not sure what the trade value of JVR is right now, and if it's diminished in the last few months, but surely the Flyers could make a "hockey trade" for a talented young defenseman whose career is also experiencing less than an exponential growth.  Personally, I don't see JVR as a player who will ever consistently perform at all-star level, and the team needs defense more than another skating forward.
JVR could also be the centerpiece of a larger deal for a prominent defensemen.

-Sign a rugged 2/3 line winger to fill JVR's now vacant spot in the top nine.  Unfortunately there aren't many such candidates out there on the UFA market, though Shane Doan, Ryan Smyth, Paul Gaustad, Dustin Penner, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Travis Moen and Daniel Winnik might be worth looking into.

-If you can skillfully pull these two things off, the Flyers will still have $3-7 million in cap space to play with, allowing for other signings or taking salary in a trade that could further bolster the defense.

-Make an executive order for system adjustments.  I've been beating this drum for a few months.  I was really hoping that, as a silver lining to a deep Flyers cup run, would be to buck the trend of tight defense in the NHL today.  Alas, look at the teams left in the playoffs; LA (2nd in goals against, and they eliminated VAN and STL who were 4th and 1st respectively), Phoenix (5th), NY (3rd), NJ (9th) and the Caps, who are 21st but only because they started a season with a different coach.  Clutch-and-grab is creeping back into the game.
I also believe Bryzgalov will look like a different goalie in a defense-first scheme.  This is how he did it in PHX, and his clear weaknesses are side-to-side movement and shot recovery.  Defense-first is the way the wind is blowing, and could maximize the talent the Flyers have.  Can Lavy make that adjustment?  If the team is still leaking goals and looking unspectacular in December, his seat will begin to get hot.

Devils Game 5 Review

And now it's official.  The Flyers death march concluded last night, in a game that looked pretty much like the previous 3.  I'll save my broader comments on the season for another post, but it was disappointing to see the Flyers fall so flatly this round.

I always had deep doubts about the transferability of the Penguins result.  As I have said previously, that was a series of passion and the Flyers should simply forget it ever happened.  The Penguins are a better team than the Devils, but the Penguins-Flyers series was a rivalry that created a unique series that was an exception to what was happening around the league.

While a letdown is not surprising, an effective collapse by the Flyers was.  Twice in six regular season meetings the Devils handily controlled the Flyers, but to do it 4 times in a row?  I did not imagine that could happen.

It's most disappointing to me that the Flyers completely failed to adjust to the Devils game plan.  By game 5, they clearly had no ideas, and the Devils continued to own the puck, control the center of the ice, and dominate on the boards.  At this point, I'm not sure how blame much falls on the players, and how much falls on the coaches.

The Devils forecheck continued to bedevil the Flyers (har har har), but the domination went beyond that.  For instance, the Flyers PP, which utterly demolished the Penguins, was 3/19 against the Devils.  That has nothing to do with the Devils even strength forecheck.  Furthermore, in this series with a 3rd period lead, the Devils would change their forecheck and play more of a trap.  The Flyers could not beat that either, as evidenced by their feeble 3rd period effort last night with their season on the line and nothing to lose.

At least with the Flyers out, I am free to cancel cable for the summer...

Notes:
-Spare me the finger pointing at Bryzgalov.  There is no defending the game winning goal last night, but on the whole, he was the Flyers best player this series by a large margin.  He didn't singlehandedly win a game, but the Devils were the far superior team in games 2 and 4 and Bryz played excellent games to keep the result in doubt until the 3rd period.
I'm pretty sure all hockey writers have a pre-written template for an article "Goaltending Fails the Flyers Again" with blank spaces for the name of the goalie.  Those articles will pop up again.  Ignore them.  And before you say good goalies simply don't do what Bryz did last night, consider that Brodeur directly caused a goal in game 1 by passing the puck right up the center of the ice where Schenn intercepted it, and again turned over the puck to Schenn last night while still behind the goal, but Briere hit the post on a wide open net.  The only difference between Bryzgalov's turnover and Brodeur's last night was luck.

-Rinaldo instantly made his presence felt this game, sparking the Flyers physical game early with a devastating hit on Volchenkov.  As the game carried on, Rinaldo became irrelevant however, and he took a bad penalty.

-Another disappointing night for JVR, topped off with a particularly bad sequence. He had the puck with time and space behind the Devils net, but was stripped of the puck, and took a terrible offensive zone penalty while trying to backcheck.  Kovalchuck would ice the series 4 seconds into that PP.

-Good for Talbot last night, as he was one of the few flyers that was johnny-on-the-spot on the puck, and his forechecking in the corner started a sequence of events that he would also finish to score the game's first goal.

-The team that scored first was 0-5 this series.  The team that scored first was 1-5 last series.  Hard to believe...

-Brief playoff performance recaps;

     -Thumbs up: Briere (8 goals and 13 points), Giroux (17 points), Voracek (10 points), Schenn (9 points), Talbot (6 points, best +/- on team), Couturier, Coburn (played huge minutes), Grossmann (until getting injured), Gustafsson

     -Thumbs down:  Carle, Simmonds, Read (didn't get much ice time), JVR, Kubina (injured? either way wasn't there for the team)

     -Meh: Hartnell (injured?), Jagr (injured?), Timonen (injured?), Bryzgalov, Lilja, Wellwood, Rinaldo

A Structural Problem

The Flyers season is currently in a valley after a tough weekend.  Two troubling losses to division opponents, marked by suspect defense and goaltending.

The instant takeaway for most fans is the gulf in goaltending between the Rangers and Flyers.  Though I never thought we'd get a goalie as good as Lundqvuist, Bryzgalov was brought in to largely eliminate a large disparity in goaltending quality.  Suffice to say, that hasn't worked out.

Goaltending is only part of the story though.  Last year, the Flyers were the only team not to earn a single shutout.  This year, they are 29th with one shutout, which is now a distant memory from the second game of the season.  Despite a new high priced goalie and a roster with a ton of changes, the same problems remain.  You can look at the Flyers lineup and say they need a physical defensemen, and you'd probably be right.  They can make themselves marginally better by acquiring one in a trade, but there are underlying issues here.

Laviolette has his team playing a style where the wingers usually stay pretty high in the defensive zone.  You rarely see all 5 Flyers collapse to protect their own net as many NHL teams do.  Additionally, the Flyers often try to start the rush quickly and in their own end.  Many NHL teams put much more priority on simply clearing the defensive zone, and worrying about offense after that.  Instead, the Flyers release quickly and often try to beat an opposing defender or two in their own end. 

Last year, this structural problem often manifested itself as blue line turnovers, as you often heard frustrations about the Flyers inability to clear the puck.  That hasn't specifically been as big an issue this year, but the underlying causes are still there and manifesting itself in different ways.  In many games this year in which the Flyers bleed goals, their separation between the forwards and defensemen in transition is way too big, leading to a lack of puck support.

The Flyers aren't going to solve their longstanding defensive shortcomings with a simple trade, and Bryzgalov isn't going to flip the switch and look like a different goalie.  If the Flyers are going to make a run this season and stop bleeding goals, they need to buckle down as a unit.  That means tighter spacing between players, deeper defensive collapsing, and a simplified low-risk transition game.  This is on both the coaches and the players to fix.

Buffalo Series Game 5

Okay, I think I am sufficiently recovered to talk about the traumatic game last night.

My initial thought is that the Flyers spotted them two goals, and then Buffalo nicked a third after some questionable calls and a 4-on-3 (I thought we were done with the Flyers getting coincidental penalties when a Sabre punches them in the face and they literally turn around and don't even try to defend themselves--apparently not).  In my opinion, Buffalo did very little to earn that lead.   There's dirty goals, and there's lucky goals.  Scoring from the corner and behind the net when there's no traffic or other threat for the goalie to worry about is simply luck.

It was big gut check from the Flyers though, coming out in the 2nd and scoring 2 goals while outshooting Buffalo 11-0.  Nobody question the Flyers are capable of that kind of performance, but they regularly find ways to make that irrelevant.

The Flyers will have a tough game 6 in Buffalo, but I think they are likely to win.  Buffalo hasn't exactly staked a very strong claim to this series, winning 2 1-0 games and barely eeking out a win yesterday despite essentially being gifted a 2 goal lead.  The series is there for the taking, but the margin of error for the Flyers to leak backbreaking goals is officially zero now.  These untimely goal against have been a repeated theme for them this year, whether it be goaltending or something else, but hopefully they can go 2 straight games without one.

Comments and other deep thoughts:
-Another big effort from JVR.  I don't think there's any question that he and Giroux have been the Flyers' best forwards this series.  Really encouraging stuff for JVR for this year and beyond.

-I still think Coburn is playing lousy.  Only noticeable for a few terrible turnovers a game, not doing much else.

-That was the best the Flyers PP has played in a while.  No goals, but it actually looked like a power play.  I also liked getting JVR down low on it towards the end of the game.  Putting him at the point just because he won the hardest shot contest was kind of insane, and he's ready to compete physically in there with the big boys.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see Pronger on the PP Sunday, bad hand and all.

-I'll call it Zherdev's best game as a Flyer overall, and unquestionably his best defensive effort.  If he played like that every night he'd be $4 million/year guy in the NHL, not an unclaimed waivers player.  I thought he was gonna score in OT honestly.

-Might be time to give up on Richards looking like the Richards of past years this season.  I don't know what the problem is, but he's not skating, mucking and hitting the way he has done in past playoffs, and the odds of it materializing in game 6 are slim to none.

-And of course, goaltending.  I have been harping (obsessing?) about this topic all year, but at least now I know I wasn't crazy and wasting my breath.  It would've been somewhat crazy to think that after 82 games of groping for a goalie the Flyers would sort it out in a few playoff games.

Simply put, the Flyers goalies are not giving them a chance to win.  It's fine to say you don't need a standout goalie to win in the playoffs, but you're not winning jack with Bob's game 2 performance and Boosh's last night.

Boosh had to be pulled last night, but Leighton was not confidence inspiring in relief.  I don't know who starts in game 6, but does it really matter?  None of the Flyers' goalies are good enough, though I think Leighton is the best fit stylistically for this team (mainly just being a big body in there who can block the puck).  Laviolette can play pretty much whoever he feels like in game 6 because no goalie has made a case that he deserves the start.

Game 2 Review

A wild game yesterday, with the Flyers coming out on the right side in the end. Hard to read too much into a game like yesterday with the first period being all over the place, and the rest of the game being a never ending stream of powerplays. Still, I thought it was a better effort from the Flyers. In my opinion, Miller did not play appreciably worse than game 1, where so many wanted to say he stole the game with 35 saves, yet the Flyers hit 5 goals and it wasn't just a lucky afternoon.

Comments;

Goaltending

The obvious question, though I don't think it's really a question anymore; Bobrovsky cannot start game 3.

Okay, I admit I'm a little biased. About a month ago I decided I would go with Boucher for the playoffs. Recent events have made Boucher the obvious choice for game 3, and I just can't see how starting Bobrovsky for game 3 is a defensible position.

Subjectively, Bobrovsky still has some obvious flaws in his game that he hasn't been able to meaningfully address this season. Foremost among them is discomfort with the puck around the net and goalline, and getting small on long shots (I've been beating these horses for a while). Those traits were on full display on the goals 2 and 3 yesterday respectively. Goal 2 in particular was badly misplayed by Bobrovsky, flailing in the crease instead of simply holding the post. Now the Flyers weren't exactly on lockdown for any of the three goals, but Bobrovsky looked completely out of sorts on all of them, and flopping around like a fish on the first goal which is something new for him. Right now, Bobrovsky has lost his way.

Objectively, the numbers are stunning. Bobrovsky has started 7 consecutive games, and has won zero with a .889 save percentage. Let me say that again--DURING THE MOST IMPORTANT STRETCH OF THE SEASON, BOBROVSKY HAS STARTED 7 CONSECUTIVE GAMES AND WON NONE. Even more distressing, in each of the two virtual must-win games for the Flyers (finale versus Islanders and game 2 against Sabres) Bobrovsky was pulled 12 minutes into the game after giving up 3 goals and looking lost. It is somewhat miraculous that Boucher has come into both of those and gotten the win.

I can't blame Laviolette for picking his guy and giving him the keys to the team. However Bobrovsky is not winning and is losing his way. In picking the Sabres to win the series in 7, I stated that I did not think Bob was capable of carrying the load, and worried that by the time Laviolette was ready to take him out, it would be too late.

Well, here is the moment of truth. Bobrovsky may have proven to be level-headed and resilient this season, but this is not just a matter of Bobrovsky bouncing back after a bad game. Bobrovsky is struggling badly and has been disastrous in 2 of his last 3 outings, yet the series is still 1-1. What will Laviolette do? For me the choice is easy. Granted, other writers are making the argument he should stay in, so who knows what will happen. I do have to say though, I find many those arguments completely misguided and unconvincing.

Richards

I'm beginning to think Richards is either sick, injured, or out-of-shape. He can't keep up with the pace of his teammates right now, and is constantly a step slow. He's not been much of a factor thus far.

Carter

Not much better than Richards, though showing less obvious signs of ailing. Just been a nonfactor, plain and simple.

JVR

Arguably the Flyers best forward thus far. He's made real nice strides this season, though maybe not the giant leap Giroux made last year in the playoffs.

Giroux

Speaking of Giroux, he has undoubtedly established himself as the offensive leader of this team. He even had the two biggest hits of the game for the Flyers last night. During the broadcast, the announcers said that, when asked who was the most competitive guy on the team, Briere answered Giroux. It's showing.

Versteeg

I haven't been impressed with Versteeg overall, but he was better last night.

Power play

Still awful. Thankfully the Flyers got one powerplay goal, but they were still 1-10 overall, including two embarrassing lengthy 5-on-3s. I think if the Flyers blew all those second period PPs and didn't score on any of them, they probably would've lost the game yesterday. Maybe getting Pronger back would help?

Pronger

Looks like Pronger won't be back for game 3, and who knows beyond? Even when he does come back, will he be as dangerous on the PP with his bad hand affecting his shot? Tomorrow will be 2.5 weeks since his "setback". Was his setbreak re-breaking his hand? Considering that he's still not shooting on it, yet was shooting on it 9 days after surgery last month, I think that's a real possibility.

GO TIME

The time has come. Will the Flyers "wake up" or "flip the switch"?

I have my doubts. It's not just a matte of desire. Your powerplay doesn't get more organized overnight. Bobrovsky's not going to make strides in his overall game this week that he hasn't been able to make in the last 7 months.

On paper, there is no doubt in my mind the Flyers are clearly superior. But Pronger looks to miss at least one game, Richards is sick, and who knows what else is going on. I think for me it's going to come down to 2 things; 1) the Flyers goaltending, 2) and the Flyers skating.

The Flyers quality of play is no longer superior enough such that they can withstand a bad goal or two and win. There won't be much margin of error for Bobrovsky, and I suspect if Bob struggles, by the time Laviolette gives up on him and brings in Boucher or Leighton it will be too late.

As for skaters, I want to see the Flyers drive their legs with the puck. The Flyers have become masters of the pull-up and stop play, looking for the pass. It's one thing for a guy like Leino who's game is based on that, but most players on the Flyers roster are far more effective when the legs are churning and they're going to the net. Hesitation and coasting will kill the Flyers in this series.

This could go either way, but right now I have to say the Sabres in 7.

Let's go Flyers, prove me wrong!!

Crunch Time

The playoff nominally start in approximately 7 days, but the Flyers may as well already be in the playoffs with their slim 1 point lead on the Pens. Time to get stuff in order, period.

First, after Leighton cleared waivers yesterday, Laviolette took the unusual step (for him) to announce Bobrovsky was starting tonight and will start in the playoffs. Not surprising that Bob is the guy, but Holmgren said he wanted Leighton to play Friday or Saturday, which may not happen now. As I said yesterday, it seems odd to me that the Flyers would expose Leighton to waivers now for him to be an undressed 3rd goalie. Or maybe they had to do it now? Goaltending hasn't really been the problem, but I wouldn't rule out doing something drastic to shake things up if the Flyers continue to slowly sink.

Second, Holmgren apparently laid down law on the team in a private meeting. Per Tim Panaccio:

tpanotch Tim Panaccio

Hartnell: “Paul Holmgren can be a scary guy,” said Scott Hartnell. “Especially, when he gives you that look.”

tpanotch Tim Panaccio

Peter Laviolette thought Holmgren's message/address to the team was constructive and well-received

tpanotch Tim Panaccio

Flyers say GM HOLMGREN address to them yesterday was a bit scary. Intimidating ...some said

LOL. It's not as simple as yelling and deciding to play harder all of a sudden, but I don't think it could hurt.

Third, there are the injuries. Briere partially practiced yesterday, though his status for tonight is unclear. No signs of Pronger, but you have to think he'll be ready for actual playoff games. Betts is also out.

The time for excuses is over. Time for Richards to get in playoff form. Carter needs to prove he can score in the playoffs. Versteeg needs to find his niche on this team. Can JVR be more of a factor this year?

GMs Lay Down the Law

Right on the heels of Bettman's 5 points, the NHL GMs remind everyone of who are the real gatekeepers for change in the league. Bettman is no Woodrow Wilson I suppose.

The three main points are 1) there will be no ban on all contact to the head, 2) stricter enforcement will be applied to charging and boarding, and 3) longer suspensions for headshots, with much longer suspensions for repeat offenders.

I think as a whole this shows the GMs clinging to an old school attitude of "keep your head up" and that the puck carrier still carries a lot of responsibility if he gets clobbered. Particularly if you look at point 3--it's almost as if the NHL is saying headshots are still hockey plays for which we can only half-heartedly go after offenders, and it's only when someone does it over and over that we are going to take a stand.

Apparently, boarding penalties are up this year statistically. I couldn't pinpoint why that is happening, and I hope this increased vigilance on boarding is more in response to that statistic rather than appeasement to the furor over the Chara hit. I say that because I think it would be very narrow-minded to focus rule changes on a rare circumstance because of public outcry in Montreal, while ignoring the all-too common plays that repeatedly cause injury. Total cop-out.

The only thing that could prove to be interesting from this is the expanded use of a charging penalty. The existing rule;

42.1 Charging - A minor or major penalty shall be imposed on a player who skates or jumps into, or charges an opponent in any manner. Charging shall mean the actions of a player who, as a result of distance traveled, shall violently check an opponent in any manner. A 'charge' may be the result of a check into the boards, into the goal frame or in open ice.

Could expanded use of the charging penalty ultimately include unnecessarily predatory hits to the head? There's probably too much grey area there in the end, though Bettman's blue-ribbon committee is supposed to look into it and maybe they'll come up with something worthwhile.

It is somewhat curious to me however that the GMs are relatively open to cracking down on boardings because of the threat to injury and vulnerability of the puck carrier even when a lot of boards are a "hockey play" gone wrong at the last moment, yet the GMs staunchly defend a shoulder to the head as a valid "hockey play". I'm sure they would say a shove from behind to the boards was always dishonorable, while a open-ice hit is just hard play, and if it results in a headshot so be it. I'm not convinced.

We won't get a substantial change on this issue until a strong leader emerges on the issue, and it's certainly won't be Bettman. FWIW, Jim Rutherford, Hurricanes GM, on a ban on all headshots; "We may get to that point, but I'm satisfied with what we've done here this week."

Also of note, the GMs voted 24-6 that the Chara hit on Pacioretty didn't call for supplementary discipline.

Back to the Flyers

A win is a win yesterday for the Flyers. Not the prettiest performance but the Flyers yielded very few scoring chances against, which will get you points more often that not. Probably not a bad idea for Laviolette to shake up the lines too.

Other thoughts;

-I'm really leaning towards Boucher for the playoffs at this point. He has been pretty good, and more in control than he was last year. Also, with Bob I feel there will inevitably be one 10 minute stretch where he lets in some bad goals.

-There was some talk after the game about Pronger's absence meaning the dressing room will be much quieter. Maybe that's not a bad thing right now. Laviolette has definitely been quieter too recently too after losses. Honestly Pronger hasn't been very good this year. If his name wasn't Pronger and he didn't have such a history of playoff success, a lot more questions would be asked of him. As it is, just wait until the playoffs to see what he does then.

-The Flyers have 7 out of a possible 8 points in their last 4 games. Would be nice to blowing out bad teams, but dominance over bad teams in the regular season isn't too great an indicator of success against good teams and in the playoffs (ask the Caps).

Ruh Roh

The news of the day is that Pronger will miss 4-6 weeks. Pronger has been at his best yet this season, but he's a valuable physical presence, pretty impeccable defensively, and a big asset on the Flyers struggling PP. One or two weeks wouldn't hurt too much, but 4-6 is gonna be tough. Will be interesting to see how Laviolette changes up the D pairings. Will he split up Timonen-Coburn, or Meszaros-O'Donnell. I wouldn't mind seeing Meszaros get more ice time myself.

Other thangs:

-I'm wondering when Bobrovsky will get his first shutout. In my opinion, SOs are a good indicator of truly outstanding goaltending. Wins and GAA are heavily dependent on the team in front of you, and save percentage is better, but has some of the same problems. Shutouts are tough to come by no matter what team you are on, and if a goalie's putting those up, you know he's really on top of his game and shutting the door. I think the fact that Bobrovsky's doesn't have one yet shows his inexperience. I'll be looking for a few shutouts from him before playoff time as a sign of progress for him.

-Dissecting Jeff Carter's game is probably a subject for a post on its own, but it would be a huge help if he centers a line that consistently creates chances. Right now, arguably the three streakiest Flyers are on the same line, Zherdev, Carter and JVR. All big and skate well, but are predictable in their play and tend to carry the puck in straight lines too much (JVR and Carter at least). Maybe they'll work well together as a direct attacking unit?

Give Bob a Break

I don't know if Bobrovsky is playing tonight, but the guy needs some games off.

Coming into the season people weren't sure how much he'd play (or even if he'd make the team) because of his unfamiliarity in the North American game. Simply put, he's not used to the shots coming so quickly from everywhere. That's not something that can be fixed in a few starts---it's a process to adjust to that.

As a result, Bob needs to be completely mentally focused because he's out of his element.

Starting 13 straight regular season games is tough for anyone, let alone the new guy dealing with these issues. Starting 3 games in 4 nights is even worse. Unfortunately he's showing the classic signs of mental fatigue, with things like the Plekanec goal sneaking in from a bad spot. Then of course there's the goalie bloodbath of the 8-7 TB game.

C'mon Laviolette, is Boucher in net for a game or two that scary?