Out of Hibernation

Yes, the time has come to bring this blog out of hibernation.  The Olympics are over, the trade deadline looms, and the stretch run beckons.  A good a time as any to start again!

Soooo, to begin with Flyers talk.  It was a productive weekend for the Flyers, taking 4 points from division opponents.  They are currently in second place, but it's all so tight, that doesn't mean much.  A bad week or so and they could easily fall several spots.

I don't have much new to say about the team really, but it does appear the team will go as far as Voracek, Giroux and Mason can take them.  Those are the real make-or-break players for me.

Also, this is old news, but let's take a minute to marvel at the Flyers' third period excellence.  With the win yesterday, the Flyers extended their franchise record of 12 wins in a season when trailing in the 3rd period.  Simply setting the record is impressive (it was held by the powerful 1997 Lindros Stanley Cup finals team), but more impressive is where they came from.

Last year, the Flyers were -15 in the 3rd period, 28th in the league.  When Laviolette was fired this year, they were being outscored 6-1 in the 3rd period.  Now the Flyers comeback like crazy, are 2nd in the league in 3rd period goals, and are +9 overall in the 3rd.  Where did this come from?  It's hard to say.  I'll just enjoy it for what it is.

Trade Deadline
The NHL trade deadline is Wednesday at 3pm.  I don't expect (nor do I want) the Flyers to be buyers at the deadline this year.  They are missing too many pieces to make a rental worthwhile, and lack disposable pieces to trade away.  Still, the trade deadline could be pretty interesting league-wide.

The Blues have already made a big move getting Ott and Miller from Buffalo.  They look primed right now. 

Kesler wants out in Vancouver, and reportedly Pittsburgh has already made a big offer (please Flyers stay out of this---there is no room for him on this roster).

The Islanders are almost surely trading Thomas Vanek and Andrew MacDonald.

The Rangers may trade their captain if they can't get Callahan signed, and Marty St. Louis is another captain that wants to be traded (a ridiculous story overall).

Moulson?  Ehrhoff?  Edler?

There's a lot to chew on.  Granted, trade deadlines are a lot of talk and a little action the last few years, but the cap is going up next year, and teams can trade salary so maybe we'll see some action.

Regarding the Flyers, the only trades acceptable to me are for long-term investments on defense.  I personally believe the Flyers must rebuild their defense from scratch, so any youth or quality is welcome.  By the same token, Mezo may intrigue some playoff teams looking for depth at the back end of their defensive corps, so he may be heading the other way from Philadelphia.

Never a Dull Moment

I've said it before, but being a Flyers fan is just fun sometimes.  Whenever anyone of note becomes available, the Flyers are sniffing around.  Maybe always chasing the big move, the short term fix, has hampered the Flyers ability to win a cup.

Regardless of whether this is true, the Flyers are consistently one of the best teams in the NHL, and made deep cup runs in 95, 97, 2000, 2004 and 2010.  On top of that, there's always something to talk about, and rarely a forgettable season.

Tonight's signing of Lecavalier is a show-stopper and continues the tradition.

Now first, it's important to realize Lecavalier's days as a superstar are behind him.  Since his days as the #1 pick in 98, when then-TB owner naively labelled him the Michael Jordan of hockey, there's always been a superstar aura around him.  Truthfully, he only performed at that level for a brief period of time, and TB signed him up to contract with a cap hit of $7.7m/season under that spell.  Now 33, he hasn't hit 30 goals in 5 seasons.

With all the wonderful weirdness of this offseason and the compliance buyouts, the Flyers can look at him purely as a second line center.  While adding a big name forward seemed low on the priority list for the Flyers, a big issue with last season's team that no one talks about was terrible secondary scoring (meanwhile, the goaltending that everyone talks about was actually fine).  The team put a heavy burden on Couturier and Schenn to develop quickly into scoring roles, and it didn't happen last season.  This move does NOT mean they are giving up on either of them, but it does relieve that burden.  Additionally, the Flyers wanted to get bigger up front, and Lecavalier is 6'4".

Lecavalier's contract is reported to be at $4.5x5.  This is decent cap hit.  It's not without risks, going to his 38th birthday for a player who will decline over the life of deal, but consider the comparables of contending teams' second line centers.  Boston is paying Krejci $5.25m for his 33 points last year.  LA is paying Carter $5.27m for his 33 points.  Pittsburgh is paying Crosby and Malkin each ~$9m.  Lecavalier's 32 points at $4.25m looks pretty good.

Nor does this signing put the Flyers in an onerous cap position.  With some simple moves, the Flyers current cap picture looks like this:

The Flyers could easily sign a platoon goalie and put that lineup out there.

More likely some more tweaking will be done to this lineup and a defensemen will go.  The Flyers could either move Meszaros in what will basically be a salary dump, or they could try for a significant return for Coburn (and even now have the freedom throw in Schenn or Couturier now that Lecavalier is on board and Laughton is coming up).

Presuming the simpler transaction of dumping Meszaros, and running with some rumors about potential signings, the Flyers opening day lineup could very well look like this:

That lineup is clearly better than last year's team, and quite honestly better than I thought the Flyers could put together this offseason while being comfortably under the cap (although the defense is still underwhelming).  Either way, next season would be a lot of fun.

Streit Agrees to Deal

Yesterday it was widely reported that the Flyers have a deal with Mark Streit for 4x$5.25m.  Holmgren has denied there is any deal to report, but that is presumably because until a trade or buyout occurs, the Flyers don't have the cap space.

Is this a good deal?

Well, I'll start the analysis from this point: my hope for the offseason was to somehow parlay Matt Read into Keith Yandle.  Yandle is an elite puck carrying defensemen.  Great on the PP, skates all over the place, but not necessarily a stalwart defensively.  The last two seasons, he plays about 22 minutes a night in Phoenix and has scored 21 goals and 52 assists to put him among the highest scoring defensemen in the league.  He is 26 years old and has 3 years left at $5.25m.

Streit has a very similar scouting report.  Skates well, carries the puck well, and is good on the PP.  Also a bit weak defensively.  The last 2 season he has played about 23 minutes a night for the Isles, and has scored 13 goals and 61 assists.  He is 35 years old and apparently signed to an identical cap hit.

All things being equal, Yandle would be the preferred option.  He is a little bigger and 9 years younger.  Streit contract will be an "over-35" contract, meaning even if he retires his cap hit stays on the books.  Otherwise, very similar players.

Of course all things are not equal, and Yandle has a high trade cost; Matt Read alone would not be enough to acquire him.  Acquiring Yandle would probably require sacrificing an asset the Flyers really don't want to give up.

So maybe we should feel okay that the Flyers acquired the skillset they needed with no impact to their roster.

Here's a lineup projection presuming Pronger LTIR and Briere buyout:

That lineup needs a top-9 forward, and they don't have much money left to sign one (let's not forget a lack of second line scoring was a major problem last year).  I would not be surprised if the Flyers made significant adjustments to this lineup including buying out Bryz, and trading Read and Mesz to give Gustafsson a top-6 spot.  I'll leave that question for another post though.

Out of Sorts

0-3 last night, and 0-3 on the season.  Another pretty ugly loss last night.  The Flyers aren't getting killed or run out of the building in these losses, but they're sloppy and at times it feels futile.  Now some have turned and said "but the Flyers started 0-3 in the last lockout season, and ultimately went to the conference finals!"  The reality is that that Flyers team started 3-7-1, and after back to back 3-0 losses to Ottawa and Florida, two of the worst teams in the league at the time, Clarke traded Mark Recchi.  I doubt Holmgren has any similar tricks up his sleeve to acquire a #1 defensemen along with a player who would score 50 goals three years in a row.

What is the problem?  There are many;

-No chemistry amongst the forwards, and the chances they do get, there's no finish.  No one is shooting with confidence or showing any creativity, other than Giroux.

-Young players who played during the lockout look out of sorts.  Couturier has really struggled, and Read has been pretty invisible.  Schenn has some good moments, but not enough.

-The defense looks haggard.  Grossmann is really laboring, struggling with forecheckers, the puck, and notably getting outskated.  Timonen isn't doing much.  Schenn has been average, Mesz has been pretty good, and Coburn can only do so much himself.

-General disorganization.  Failed coverage on faceoffs has led to goals.  Failed coverage down low has led to goals.  Special teams have been terrible.  The Flyers have also been burned by bad changes.  All this in 3 games.

-Bad bounces.  It's hard to say how much is teams making their own luck, but the first period against the Devils was probably their best this season, yet they trailed 2-0 after it.  Against Buffalo, there were 3 questionable calls in the crease directly leading to goals or potential goals, and all three went in Buffalo's favor.

-Bad first periods.  The first 15 minutes against the Penguins were terrible, leading to a 2-0 hole.  Another slow start in the Buffalo game creating a 1-0 deficit, and another 2-0 hole last night.  Outscored 5-0 in the first period so far this season.


I'm not sure what the remedy is here, as Laviolette did the line shuffling prior to the New Jersey game  Maybe throw in Leighton and see if the team responds?  I think the most important thing right now is to focus on special teams, where they've been outscored 7-1 in just three games.  That is inexcusable.

The Flyers Godfather

"Make them an offer they can't refuse."

As more details come about the Weber offer sheet, I think it's a fairly entertaining story.

For starters, Weber visited the Flyers (and the Rangers) recently, and the Flyers entered serious trade negotiations with Nashville.  Reportedly, Weber decided Philadelphia was where he wanted to be, and he and his agent made that clear to Nashville.

The entertaining part to me is Ed Snider's involvement.  For one, a team can't offer a contract like the Flyers did to Weber without ownership approval or encouragement.  In the case of Snider, it's probably encouragement.  Two, supposedly Snider himself gave Weber private tours of the Flyers facilities, including ordering everyone to immediately vacate the premises for his private tour and private meal in a back room.  This will remind Flyers fans of Snider's courtship of Bryzgalov, using Snider's private jet.

In trade talks, Nashville wanted Couturier AND Schenn, plus other parts.  Obviously, the Flyers balked.  Not only did the Flyers balk at that demand, they threw it back in Nashville's face with a huge offer sheet.  The prevailing wisdom is that an offer sheet would be practically a favor to Nashville because then they could simply match and thus avoid the complications of negotiating with Weber themselves, but perhaps the Flyers made the financial terms of the offer so onerous ($27m due in one calendar year) that Nashville ownership won't approve of matching.

There may yet still be a trade between Nashville and the Flyers regarding Weber, but the Flyers didn't like the way talks were going, and in turn made it a more dangerous game for Nashville.

It's hard to say what happens next, but I like Bill Meltzer's take on the situation here, which forcefully advocates a trade based on Voracek, Meszaros and first round picks as I speculated the other day.

On to Doan
After the Godfather successfully wined and dined Weber, it was widely reported that Doan visited.  I actually wouldn't make too much of this, because Doan is basically on a tour of NHL team, including NY and Detroit, among others.  I'm not sure if the Weber signing going through increases or decreases the likelihood of Doan signing in Philly, but Doan is clearly in no hurry to sign anywhere yet.

Flyers Offer Weber HUMONGOUS Deal

It is days like today that I treasure being a Flyers fan.  There's never a boring day, and nothing is out of the question.  For my money no team is more fun to follow despite no cup for 35 years, but that's probably a question for another day/blog.

As for the matter at hand, the Flyers have offered Shea Weber a 14 year, ~$110m contract.  This is the biggest contract in NHL history for a defensemen, and computes to a cap hit of ~$7.8 million.  Nashville will now have 7 days to match, or alternatively work out a trade with the Flyers.  If Nashville matches, all is said and done and Weber is guaranteed to be in Nashville next year.  If Nashville declines, Nashville will receive 4 first round picks from the Flyers.

With those hard facts out of the way, the real intrigue is how this plays out.  Upon some reflection, I believe this was ultimately the strongest play the Flyers could make to land Weber.

Weber has been something of a white whale for Flyers fans this offseason---a dominating defensemen who can comfortably fill the shoes of Chris Pronger.  I have previously speculated that the Flyers were not in the best position to land Weber, because Nashville will pull out all the stops to sign their franchise player, and the  Flyers have already traded away two key trading chips in JVR and Bobrovsky.  I have been among those believing "don't offer-sheet Weber because Nashville will match anything," but this was the best option available to the Flyers at the moment.  Because of the Flyers lack of other assets, they would not fare well in open trade bidding process, in my opinion.

By signing Weber to this offer sheet, the Flyers have shut out all other teams from the Weber hunt.  If Nashville matches, they can't trade him for one year, and he will likely be in Nashville for several years.  The Flyers now have exclusivity in trade dialogues with Nashville regarding Weber.  It also has to happen within the next 7 days, so the Flyers have accelerated the timeline.

Of course the simplest course of action is merely for Nashville to match, and then there's nothing to talk about.  All things being equal, I'm sure Nashville was prepared to offer Weber a long-term deal with a cap hit of ~$8m.  What gives Flyers fans hope here is their deal reportedly calls for $26m in the first year alone.  Can Nashville swallow that?  Mind you that Nashville's entire franchise is only worth $163m, and they only have $40m committed to the entire roster next year.  Nashville is required to spend $14m on SOMEBODY this offseason to get to the cap floor at $54m, but the way this deal is structured, their actual, IRL payroll this season would be at least $72m.  Whether or not they can handle $26m to Weber next season (and $56m over the next 3 years total) is basically a business decision.

To keep the conversation going, let's assume they can't, and earnestly talk trade with the Flyers.  Per the RFA offer sheet rules, the trade value is pegged at 4 first round picks.  This should be acceptable to the Flyers, considering they traded essentially 3 first round picks and a 3rd for Pronger a few years ago.  Now Pronger is one of the best defensemen of his generation, but he was about to turn 35, and his days as a Norris candidate were clearly behind him.  Weber is 26, entering his prime, and has been the Norris runner-up the last 2 seasons.

Nashville, however, will probably want something other than picks to show for the sudden departure of their franchise player.  What do the Flyers have to offer?  I would start with Voracek and Meszaros.  Mesz can play 20+ minutes a night for Nashville, and is likely the defensemen the Flyers would soonest trade with their sudden logjam of defensemen.  Voracek I like as a complimentary top 6 winger, though he's probably a 60-70 point player going forward.  Also, he is still not signed anyway.

Even assuming Nashville will take those two, there needs to be more.  First round picks are a good sweetener here.  The Flyers recent first round selection, Scott Laughton, could also be included.  The Flyers turned some heads picking this kid higher than most expected him to go, but he left a lot of observers impressed at the Flyers recently-concluded prospect camp.

Lastly, there is the possibility of trading Schenn and Couturier.  I really hate to think about this.  For me, Cooter is the best prospect the Flyers have had since Lindros.  His game is so complete, it's amazing, and it would really pain me to trade him for anyone.  Schenn is also a very promising player, who could break out big time this year.  Previously I would've said 'maybe' to trading Schenn for (and only for) Weber, but now Jagr and JVR are gone, and Luke Schenn is in.  This makes Schenn less likely to be traded away now.

I will stop here, rather than ramble on endlessly.  Overall, I think this maneuver gave the Flyers the best chance at landing Weber, but it's far from guaranteed Nashville lets him get away.  If I had to guess I feel like Nashville finds a way to keep him, but all bets are off.  The takeaway, however, is that by getting this offer sheet signed, the Flyers have promoted themselves from longshots on landing Weber, to having a very good shot at him as well as blocking potential rivals (mainly the Rangers) from acquiring him.

IF the Flyers were to trade away Voracek, Mesz, and picks/prospects, this is what Flyers fans are looking at:

It's nice getting that franchise defensemen, but for all the goals the Flyers scored last year, that forward group is THIN.  They really have no highly skilled winger to speak of, as Jagr, JVR and Voracek were ALL of their skill wingers last season.  At least there is still enough cap space to add a decent forward or two.

Season Review

All playoff exits feel disappointing.  Through the ups and downs, fans always convince themselves that their team can win any series.  The Flyers flame-out was sudden, but in the long view, it makes a little more sense.

At no point this season did I think the Flyers were really primed for a serious cup run.  They were too young up front, having traded away their core forwards.  Then things started going pretty well, but Pronger went down.  Without Pronger, I thought a long playoff run was precluded.

The Flyers defensive and goaltending struggles reinforced that perception, until March shutouts made me begin to think I could be wrong.  The defense showed hope, and they could score whenever they needed to.  Eventually however, the gas tank ran dry and ingrained problems caught up to them.

It was a memorable and exciting season, and I could not label this team as underachievers.  That's pretty much all you can ask for as a fan.

PLAYER REVIEWS

Forwards:
-Giroux.  The burden fell to him to step up with Carter and Richards gone, and he responded with an MVP caliber season that Richards or Carter never produced.

-Briere.  A very poor regular season, largely saved by 8 playoff goals.  His overall game never really fired on all cylinders though, even in the playoffs.

-Voracek.  His 49 points is not all that impressive, but he was a valuable player for the Flyers, and I certainly didn't see anything like conditioning or effort issues that his old CBJ coach criticized him for on the way out.  He may never break 25 goals or 65 points, but I could see him being a winger on a quality top line.

-Hartnell.  A quiet playoffs shouldn't dilute a career year, and I think he was playing hurt anyway.  Consistently energetic, physical, and showed a finishing touch I didn't think he had.  All this after a pre-season lost to health concerns and a terrible start.

-Jagr.  54 points in 73 games, veteran leadership, and the self-proclaimed "most enjoyable year" of his career.  That qualifies as a success.  Jagr did have some nagging groin issues, and his energy level fluctuated throughout the year, so it remains to be seen if he will be back.

-Schenn.  18 points in 54 games is an unimpressive line, but he improved as the season wore on, and I'd go so far as to say he was the Flyers' best player in game 1 of the Pittsburgh series.  I expect  him to take the next step in his career next year.

-Read.  He turned out to be one of the best rookies in the league.  24 goals, played everywhere on the front line, and in all situations.  Pretty much ideal.

-Simmonds.  Almost doubled his career high in goals, largely due to 11 PP goals.  He looks to be a streaky scorer going forward, as he battles and puts himself in good positions but doesn't have very soft hands, his physical initiative will make him a fan favorite.

-Talbot.  Gave the Flyers everything they could hope for.  A lunchpail player and team guy, he went from 8 goals last season with Pittsburgh to 19 this year, and he and Giroux were lethal shorthanded in the playoffs.

-Couturier.  Surpassed all expectations this season, with 13 goals and logged big minutes in the playoffs.  Remarkable for an 18 year old, I could not identify any clear deficiencies in his game.  What a draft day steal, he could be a key player for the Flyers for a long time.

-Wellwood.  Nothing spectacular, but a young, speedy player that should be an asset for bottom lines and depth next year.

-Rinaldo.  Did all that could be asked of him.  Not a high skill guy, he successfully brought a lot of energy and spark to the Flyers.  He will have to continue to work on his discipline, though in his defense, he is clearly targeted by the officials and is on the short end of a lot of marginal calls.

-JVR.  I think JVR had a very disappointing season.  Yes, he had injuries, and his point production was decent before all the injuries.  Still, I wrote that his early stat line flattered his play even before all the injuries, and there's no escaping the reality of the 11g, 13a, 43gp for a player who was supposed to score 30+ goals this year.  He was very good in game 1 against NJ, but did little else in that series.

-Shelley.  Yes, he is still on this team.

Defense:
-Timonen.  Another year of wear and tear on Timonen's body, he still was able to be the Flyers top defensemen this year.  Injuries severely limited him in the playoffs.

-Meszaros.  Was inconsistent all year, never finding the form he had most of last season.  Then his season was cut short by an injury.  Maybe next year will be a bounce back season.

-Coburn.  Unremarkable regular season, but logged huge minutes in the playoffs.

-Grossmann.  The strong, defense-first, shot-blocking defenseman the team needed.  He has bad knees though, so let's hope they hold up.

-Carle.  The team's de facto number 1 defensemen this year, covering a lot of territory and eating minutes.  A very good chance that his time as a Flyers is over, however.

-Kubina.  He could not provide the reliable veteran presence the team was looking for---too old and slow, and picked up some injuries too.  Little chance of him returning.

-Pronger.  His season never really started, and his career may be over.  It's a shame his time with the Flyers was so short-lived.

-Gustafsson.  He really made some nice strides this season, though he could struggle at times.  Skilled and smart, but undersized.  It will be interesting to see what he can do next year in extended time.

-Bourdon.  Another pleasant surprise, as his career seemed to have stalled in the minors.  Looks like he might have an NHL future yet.

-Lilja.  Seldom used in the regular season, played decently in the playoffs.  Too old and slow to play a significant role.

Goalies:
-Bryzgalov.  Things did not go as planned, though he was amazing in March.  Too inconsistent and gaffe prone, but on and off the ice.  Seemingly has some growing up to do, though a full season in Philly under his belt will help.  Expectations will remain high with his 9 year contract.  I am optimistic.

-Bobrovsky.   Started the season strong, but on the whole did not take the next step in his career this year.  Now heading into the last year of his contract with the Flyers.

Defensemen Statistical Performance

Hockey is hard sport to capture in numbers, and defensemen is probably the position that is the most difficult.  People tend to caught up in points, which makes sense, but there are other numbers out there that may be informative.  Below is a table of Flyers defensemen performance this season.

I visually separated Kubina and Grossman because those stat lines largely reflect their time on another team, so it's not apples to apples comparisons.  I also focus on the rates these players accrue stats per minute played.

Some things are obvious--Meszaros shoots a lot, Timonen limits turnovers, Grossman never shoots...etc  There are some interesting tidbits in there though.

-Coburn excels at the giveaway/takeaway balance, but he blocks very few shots and misses the net constantly on his shots.

-Of the Flyers' regulars, Carle has the highest percentage of shots on net, and blocks the most shots.  That is unexpected.

-Kubina and Grossman block more shots than any Flyers defensemen.  That may be inflated by their time away from the Flyers, but it is noteworthy.

-Meszaros and Coburn have the most takeaways, but those two also are the worst shot blockers.  This makes sense with Meszaros' active game, but is surprising with Coburn who plays more passively and does not produce offense.

Midseason Player Reviews

I don't like rating players by grades, and there's no use denying every player faces different expectations and different roles.  I'm going to simply assume some degree of subjective expectations and rate players with a stock-rating flavor.

Outperform
-Claude Giroux.  No brainer here.  Last season he looked like a promising young center, but was arguably the 4th most visible center on the team.  With Richards and Carter traded to make room for a goalie, Giroux faced a lot of pressure to be the offensive lynchpin.  He has responded with an MVP caliber season.

-Jaromir Jagr.  Sticking with Giroux's line, no one was sure how Jagr would perform after three season out of the NHL.  50 points?  60 points?  He still couldn't do a point a game, could he?  Apparently yes.  After a slow start, he found his legs and has looked fantastic, and is a key offensive player for the Flyers.  Nagging injuries are the only thing slowing him down now.

-Scott Hartnell.  And now to complete the Giroux line!  Hartnell got off to a very rocky start, missing preseason time due to medical tests, and his place in the lineup was very much at risk with 2 points in 7 games and Simmonds on the top PP unit.  Placing him with Jagr and Giroux has been magic, as every player has looked better since this trio was complete.  Hartnell has 35 points in 34 games since then.

-Matt Read.  On pace for 25+ goals, and an offensive factor every night.  What more could the Flyers want from him?

-Jake Voracek.  His pace of ~50 points isn't going to turn many heads, and is line with his career averages, however I think he is playing better than that.  Didn't start off great, but he is up on his skates attacking the defense every night.  It's not a coincidence that the Flyers go on win streaks when he is playing his best.  Early in the season I talked about Jagr replacing Leino's offensive contribution, but it's actually been Voracek carrying the puck, making plays, contributing what the Flyers would've hoped for from Leino.

-Kimmo Timonen.  He has played big minutes and piled up the points, and looks to produce at a rate not seen since his best years in Nashville.

-Max Talbot.  Has played reliably all over the lineup, and at midseason is already near career highs in goal scoring and points.

-Sean Couturier.  I didn't listen to scouts early this year when they nearly unanimously predicted Cooter would make the big team.  I looked at the roster and though, nah.  Instead, Cooter has simply made it impossible to take him out of the lineup, playing like a veteran.

-Harry Zolneirczyk.  Despite being sent down early in the season, he has come back and looked great on the 4th line--energetic with occasional scoring.  Thumbs up, though to maintain a role like this in the NHL he will have to have an increased role on the PK.

-Zac Rinaldo.  I was pretty skeptical of this wild man coming into the season.  Although he seems targeted by officials, he has general kept it under control, potted a goal here or there, and aggressively sought contact on the ice. 

-Marc-Andre Bourdon.  His ascent to the NHL hasn't really gone like many in the organization may have hoped, but he has played within himself and looked like he belongs in the NHL.

Market Perform
-Danny Briere.  A pretty ho-hum regular season for Briere.  He's been there for some key goals, but hasn't looked consistently dangerous and is on pace for his lowest point totals for a full season as a Flyer (when healthy).  I am giving him somewhat of a pass due to raising his game in the playoffs the last two years, and the expectation that he will do it again.

-Matt Carle.  Carle continues to hum along, playing big minutes and getting decent point totals.  I still say he has the worst shot on the team though, so there's always that to infuriate Flyers fans when he gets so many chances with skating and awareness on the ice. 

-Wayne Simmonds.  Simmonds teased Flyers fans early this year and preseason with some offensive skill, however Flyer fans have seen some stone hands since then.  Simmonds is always battling out there, but his offense probably will never be more than occasional and streaky.

-Braydon Coburn.  Quiet but largely steady from Braydon.

-Sergei Bobrovsky.  Bob continues to progress nicely, and currently sports a much better stat line than Bryzgalov.  He probably deserves a chance to get some starts and be given a chance to run with it.

-Andreas Lilja.  Doing exactly what was expected; old and slow, occasionally physical defensemen.

Underperform
-Brayden Schenn.  I don't like putting him here, as when I see him play I see a skilled and intelligent player, and injuries never really gave him a chance.  Still, on January 1, there he was with 0 points and -7 in 8 games.  Hopefully, the second half will treat him better (and the signs are already good).

-James Van Riemsdyk.  Looking at a low 40s point season, and is not visible many nights.  This is even when I commented earlier this season that his points line flatters his play.  He was supposed to progress more than this by this point.

-Andrej Meszaros. The team's best defensemen last year, he struggled early.  His play has improved, but his overall body of work is not what Flyers fans were hoping for.

-Ilya Bryzgalov.  If you've read this blog, or even followed the Flyers at all, do I need to say anything?  Not playing like the top goalie the Flyers signed him to be.  He still can figure it out though.

-Jody Shelley.  Yes, he is still on this team.

No Rating
Chris Pronger, Erik Gustafsson

It's officially over

As expected, the Bruins series ended promptly this year.  It was a comprehensive thrashing.    There's really not much else to say about it, other than that it shouldn't be all that surprising given the way they looked at the end the season in general; disorganized defensively, tentative, physically unassertive.

I wanted to believe the Flyers would shape up and return to midseason form after some inspired play against Buffalo, but that proved to be a temporary flash against an inferior opponent.

Quick season review:
What went right?
-Giroux emerged as the best player on the team.

-JVR took a big step forward, and should be a key player next year.

-The Meszaros transaction worked out great, being the team's best defense from start to finish this year.  He is signed for 3 more years at $4m per and looks to be the heir apparent to leading the defense as Pronger's and Timonen's ice time declines due to age.

-Bobrovsky showed a lot of promise, with his best hockey coming in November.  That said, I strongly believe his NHL game is not a finished product, and there's no way I'd enter next season with him as the undisputed number 1.

-Nodl's first half.

-The defense was much stronger 1-6, at least when the roster was healthy.

What went wrong?
-Pronger had a mediocre regular season, had injury problems, and essentially missed the end of the season and playoffs.  Honestly I didn't care too much about his regular season because he's a playoff player, but that didn't really work out this year, did it.

-Timonen had his worst season as a Flyer, particularly in the playoffs.  Along with Pronger, questions have to be asked how much their skills will diminish in the next season or two and if they are breaking down.  Timonen is 36 years old and said it himself that he only has so many season in his "stumpy legs."  Maybe he was just playing injured in the playoffs...we'll have to see.

-Richards had an uninspiring regular season, and a particularly disappointing playoffs.  I still say he was injured/out-of-shape.  I hope for his sake it was injured and not the latter.  There's also a lot of chatter about his lack of leadership, but I know nothing about what is really happening in "the room", so I can't speak to that.

-The Versteeg trade is looking like a real dud.  He played a little better in the playoffs, but never contributing in any significant way.  He will have to do better next year to earn the $3m cap hit, or the Flyers should start looking to remedy the mistake of acquiring him in the first place.

-Nodl's second half, the return of Andreas No-Goal.

-Goaltending was not good enough.  It was rendered irrelevant in the Boston series, but the Flyers eeked by a much inferior Buffalo team after what was, taken collectively, probably the worst goaltending performance in a playoff series I've ever seen.

-The power play was really bad, somewhat inexplicably so.

-The Hartnell-Briere-Leino line lost its mojo in the second half of the season.  For last year's playoffs and the first half this year, they were pretty easily the Flyers best 5v5 line, manufacturing scoring chances and pinning in the other team.  Just as an example, Leino's 6 points in 11 playoff games this year is a far cry from his 21 in 19 games last year.

-100 straight games without a shutout.  It's hard to pin down the exact reasons for this, but I say roughly 2/3rds goaltending and 1/3 poor defensive zone coverage and lapses.  Much of a shutout is solid defense combined with a flawless performance by a goalie.



There is really no clear path forward for the Flyers.  That's not to say they're all of a sudden a bad team, I just mean that management could go in several completely different directions.  The only move I think they HAVE to make is a meaningful solution in goal.  What they should do with the skaters however (and if they should shake up the lineup) is very subjective, but almost nothing is off the table.

Game 1 Review

I didn't have a good feeling about this series, and the Flyers did nothing for me tonight to change any of those worries.

Yes, the Flyers held a clear territorial edge in the play, had 35 shots, and probably outchanced Buffalo about 2-1. Much of the post-game talk was Miller, and Richards said if they continue to play like that, they'll have success.

I disagree. How many times did the Flyers get a great look where you get on the edge of your seat? Damn few. The only decent chances they had were jam plays where you hope somebody pokes the puck in the net when the goalie is down. Miller was solid but didn't do much of note.

This team is still afflicted with stop-and-pass syndrome. I lost count of all the times where the Flyers had odd-man numbers on a rush or around the goal and the puck carrier just stops skating, drifts and throws a hopeful pass into the slot which bounces away harmlessly. It's like the Flyers are afraid to carry the puck to the net or shoot from anywhere but the slot (a play which Buffalo took away). Briere and Meszaros are the only guys willing to shoot. This is the way they've been playing the last month, and it's doubtful it will change now. Carry the puck towards the net aggressively and force the issue!! Coasting and passing to the slot every time is predictable and easy to defend. I don't expect the Flyers to score many goals this series.

Other individual thoughts:

The good

-Real good game for JVR. Probably the Flyers best forward tonight.

-Good first period from Leino, and he created several chances overall.

-Can't fault Briere for anything tonight. He probably had the most hits of any Flyer.

-Bobrovsky gets a pass tonight. Was pretty good in the limited chances he faced, though he gave up a poor rebound that led to the only goal.

The not-so good

-Versteeg is really doing absolutely nothing for me (which has been the case since he arrived)

-Carter did nothing with the puck. He had a few scoring chances, but those came from hanging out away from the puck where Giroux and JVR set him up with their hard work.

-Good to see Richards come out with fire, but he did nothing this game and spent more time yelling at the refs than anything else. Same anonymous play as stretches of the regular season for him this year.

-The PP looked totally hopeless, not that there could've been any reasonable expectation of flipping the switch on that.

-Giroux is trying, but is out of sorts right now. Stickhandling 1-on-4 during the last PP?

My standing prediction was Buffalo in 7. 6 games is looking more likely.

Division Clinched

It was by the skin of their teeth, but the Flyers clinched the division for the first time in 6 years last night.

A playoff atmosphere at the arena last night and a perfect start before the Flyers found themselves down 4-3. I guess the Flyers should just take the win and move on. Very fitting however, that the line of Leino-Briere-Hartnell plus 4 points from Andrei Meszaros carried the day. Those are the guys that have been there doing it all regular season, and it wasn't Richards or Carter or came through with the big plays when the team needed them today.

So now that the Flyers are in the playoffs, the Flyers have about 4 days to answer some questions.

The issues;

-Zherdev. This one's pretty easy--he stays in the lineup. As long as he's not hurting the team with turnovers or bad penalties or the like, the team could use his stick skills and shooting.

-Briere. Seems to be healthy. Thank god.

-Richards & Carter. No injuries this year, time for Carter to be a go-to scorer in the playoffs. It hasn't been a terribly impressive regular season for Richards, but he should turn it up in the playoffs.

-Pronger. No way to really know what's going on with his injury, but I'd very surprised if he doesn't play in game 1 of the playoffs (with significant minutes).

-Power play. Still looking pretty scattershot.

-Goalies. Alas, the million dollar question, as it has been all season.

So, Goalies

All the indications the past few weeks were that Bobrovsky was Laviolette's guy, and he confirmed as much this week. A while back I decided that my preference was Boucher.

I see Bobrovsky and I see a goalie who hasn't figured it out yet. Regardless of what he is capable of long term, right now I see 3 major holes; 1) gets small and scrunchy on long shots, 2) has developed a disturbing tendency to have a gaping five hole when moving laterally on breakaways, and most importantly, 3) still loses track of the puck often and is caught unaware with traffic and when the puck is jammed in around the crease. The way he was pulled yesterday was very ugly for a goalie who is supposed to carry the load in the playoffs. Honestly, it reminds me of 1997, when in the final game of the season, Hextall was pulled after giving up 4 goals, and the team rallied behind Snow paving the way for Snow in the playoffs.

Given my lack of faith in Bobrovsky, is Boucher any better? Maybe, maybe not. I think if Boucher can stay 'quiet' in the crease, he's the better option. He's not really much more than a mediocre NHL goalie, but he should be mostly reliable.

Honestly I kind of wish Leighton had gotten a game, but I suppose Laviolette was trying to give the keys to his guy, and the Flyers had no breathing room to give Leighton a trial game anyway. Truthfully Leighton is just another not-quite-good-enough goalie on the Flyers payroll, but I do think his play the last few months of last season was better than what Boucher and Bobrovsky are providing right now.

Also, for anyone keeping score, Ray Emery was called up by the Ducks last month and finished the season 7-2 with a 926 save percentage. So much for the Emery as a low-risk high-reward signing, but it's hard to blame the Flyers for not carrying 4 NHL goalies in their ranks.

No matter who's in net, the Flyers inability to lock it down (read, the only NHL team without a shutout this year), is likely going to be their doom this year.

Plus/Minus Check-in

Always interesting to see how players are performing in the plus/minus category. All the usual caveats apply (ice time, matchups, roles...blah blah blah).

Current leaders:

Meszaros, +29 (#1 in NHL)

Leino, +23 (#3 overall, #1 forward)

Carle, +20 (#7)

Briere, +17 (#15)

Hartnell, +17 (#15)

In the basement:

Carcillo, -7 (26gp)

Bartulis, -4 (12gp)

Powe, -1

First of all, when you're the number 1 team in the NHL, everybody has a pretty good plus/minus rating.

Two things jump out from the leaders; 1) Meszaros is playing really outstanding. Part of that is helped by playing on the third pair before Pronger got hurt, and thus being matched up against the opposition's third line. Still, his numbers have gone up since seeing increased ice time with Pronger out, and #1 in the NHL is #1 in the NHL, period.

The second thing that jumps out is all the members of the Briere line, with Leino leading the way. Anyone who's been paying attention knows the Briere line has been the best and most consistent line for the Flyers this year. Leino being several points ahead than his linemates also underlines his excellent play this year, and that he's also the best defensive forward on that line.

Carle's performance also demands praise. That plus/minus is way up there, and notably higher than his partner's (Pronger at +7).

At the other end, Carcillo and Bartulis stand out. I would be worried if Bartulis sees much playing time come the playoffs, and Carcillo is not doing anything to help his slim chances of resigning. I wouldn't worry too much about Powe, because the whole 4th line has pretty low numbers, and he's just a bit behind them.

Report Card Day

Little did I realize, but the Flyers play their 42nd game tonight. Therefore it is very important to give out midseason grades immediately, lest they lose their eminence.

As a team, things have gone pretty much as well as anyone could've expected. ESPN seems to think highly of them.

Summary: The Flyers are without question the cream of the crop in the Eastern Conference. Even without veteran defenseman Chris Pronger, who should return from injury in the near future, the Flyers haven't missed a beat. They have great balance up front and steady netminding from Renaissance man Brian Boucher. Fewest road losses in the NHL also illustrate the team's maturity. Grade: A-plus. Trending: Up.

So there's that, and not much else to say.

As for players, without doing the tiresome grade for each one;

Thumbs Up

-Leino, killing it

-JVR, coming on and the team will be thrilled if he keeps it up

-Boucher, (see JVR)

-Briere, looking like the player everybody hoped for when signing the big contract

-Hartnell, doing his job well

-Giroux, breakthrough first third, needs to rev it back up.

-Meszaros, outperforming Carle and Coburn

-Nodl, ~20 goal pace for no-goal Nodl!

-Bobs, great start, will need to re-find that form to help Boucher

Holding steady, check back at playoff time

Pronger, Timonen, Richards, Carter, Carle, Coburn, O'Donnell, Betts

*shrugs*

Shelley, Carcillo, Bartulis, Zherdev

Random thought:

The Flyers will have a two-headed monster in net for the foreseeable future, would it be incredibly corny to nickname said beast Bobby Boucher/Waterboy?

Leighton Waived

This caught me by surprise. The breaking news of the day is that Michael Leighton has been waived.

I thought the Flyers would roll with 3 goalies for another week or two, but not so fast.

Leighton got the win in his first game back, though he was not good. Of course letting in a no-angle shot 2.5 minutes in didn't ease Flyers fans' memories of the Stanley Cup winning goal.

It is tempting to see this and have an initial reaction that the Flyers are dumping him and going with Boucher and Bobrovsky. After taking a deep breath, the following is more likely;

1) Leighton will be unclaimed and try to find his stride in the AHL as part of the Flyers organization.

2) The Flyers are going to ride Boucher (aka Mr. Streaky) as long as he's playing well. Personally I don't think that's going to be much longer, but you never know.

3) The Flyers don't want to send Bobrovsky down.

The Flyers overall goalie situation is not much clearer now. Don't be surprised to see Leighton called back up if Boucher and Bobrovsky struggle and Leighton plays well down on the farm. This definitely isn't good news for Mr. Leighton, but I don't think his days with the Flyers are over just yet.

As another aside, let me also say that I don't see Boucher or Leighton having any trade value at any point this season. If the Flyers don't want three goalies, it means someone is going to the minors and nothing is coming back to the Flyers.

Other searing insights:

-JVR is getting scoring chances more consistently, and is scoring some garbage goals. I didn't necessarily see him as that type of player giving his skating and stickhandling, but maybe that's where his NHL future lies? His career could still go either way, but I couldn't help but notice he was on the ice in the final minute as the Flyers clung to their one goal lead against the Wings. That may be a better sign than the goals (and all the posts he's been hitting).

-The lines are back to status quo. I wouldn't have minded seeing them mixed up a little longer, but the Hartnell-Briere-Leino line is maximizing the output of each of those three. Not sure what is best for Richards, Giroux and Carter though.

-Meszaros trade sure is looking good right now. I've said it before, but Carle's days as a Flyer may be numbered (beyond this season that is).

Ruh Roh

The news of the day is that Pronger will miss 4-6 weeks. Pronger has been at his best yet this season, but he's a valuable physical presence, pretty impeccable defensively, and a big asset on the Flyers struggling PP. One or two weeks wouldn't hurt too much, but 4-6 is gonna be tough. Will be interesting to see how Laviolette changes up the D pairings. Will he split up Timonen-Coburn, or Meszaros-O'Donnell. I wouldn't mind seeing Meszaros get more ice time myself.

Other thangs:

-I'm wondering when Bobrovsky will get his first shutout. In my opinion, SOs are a good indicator of truly outstanding goaltending. Wins and GAA are heavily dependent on the team in front of you, and save percentage is better, but has some of the same problems. Shutouts are tough to come by no matter what team you are on, and if a goalie's putting those up, you know he's really on top of his game and shutting the door. I think the fact that Bobrovsky's doesn't have one yet shows his inexperience. I'll be looking for a few shutouts from him before playoff time as a sign of progress for him.

-Dissecting Jeff Carter's game is probably a subject for a post on its own, but it would be a huge help if he centers a line that consistently creates chances. Right now, arguably the three streakiest Flyers are on the same line, Zherdev, Carter and JVR. All big and skate well, but are predictable in their play and tend to carry the puck in straight lines too much (JVR and Carter at least). Maybe they'll work well together as a direct attacking unit?