ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE

Huge huge huge day for the Flyers.  Actually let's make that 4 huges.

Carter?  Traded.  Richards?  Traded.  Bryzgalov? Signed.

My head is still spinning trying to make sense of it all.  There was always a decent chance Carter would be traded, and Richards was a dark horse trade candidate, but both of them traded?  Shocking.

The bottom line;
Out;
-Richards ($5.75 cap hit)
-Carter ($5.27 cap hit)

In;
-Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.6m cap hit)
-Brayden Schenn ($3.11 cap hit)
-Wayne Simmonds (RFA, $2 cap hit?)
-Jakub Voracek (RFA, $2.5 cap hit?)
-Picks: Columbus's 1st (8th overall), LA's 2nd, Columbus's 3rd

These are blockbuster moves.  Richards and Carter were supposed to be the face of the franchise and each are signed to mega-long term deals.  Schenn was ranked the best prospect in hockey by hockeysfuture.com, and Voracek was another very high pick who may be ready to take off in the NHL. Simmonds is a promising physical winger, and that collection of picks the Flyers added is nothing to scoff at.  Note that the Carter to Columbus deal is basically exactly as speculated a few days ago, with which I was pretty satisfied.

Obvious questions yet to be answered are the contracts for Simmonds and Voracek, and if Versteeg is yet to be traded.  I'd still say there's a fair chance Versteeg goes at the draft, but they no longer have to deal him.  Here's the Flyers lineup as of right now (pay no attention to the lines);

Voracek-Briere-Hartnell
Simmonds-Giroux-JVR
Versteeg-Schenn-???
Powe-Betts-Nodl
Shelley

Pronger-Carle
Coburn-Timonen
Meszaros-Gustaffson
Bartulis

Bryzgalov
Bobrovsky

The lineup above costs ~$56.5 against the cap, and does not include values for Voracek or Simmonds.  Also, if you didn't notice, Leino is not in this lineup, but Versteeg is.  That leaves $7.8m for 3 wingers.

It will be difficult to judge it all until the dust settles, but suffice to say I am excited.  Big upgrade in goal? Check?  Clear cap space? Check.  Add energy and size on the wings? Check.  Add draft picks?  Check.  It remains to be seen what lies ahead for Richards and Carter, but based on their performance last year, this overhaul is fantastic.  Of course they could just as easily have much better years in the future, so it's a risk.

So who are these guys the Flyers got?
-Bryzgalov.  I said last month he was the best goalie out there, but the Flyers likely couldn't fit him on the roster without trading Richards or Carter.  Turns out they were willing deal them both!  Allow me also to pat myself on the back for pretty much nailing his contract value.  Bryzgalov should be good, people.  There are no guarantees, but he's one of only two goalies in the league to finish top 10 in Vezina voting the past two years (Luongo being the other).  Even more impressive, he was a 3 star selection in 44% of his starts last year, and that was in what most consider to be an "off" year for him.  I am very hopeful.

-Schenn.  This guy is a very hot prospect.  The #1 prospect according to some, as mentioned above.  In January in the World Junior championships, he set the tournament record for points, was named the top forward and won the tournament MVP.   I can't say what to expect from him next year in the NHL as a 20 year old, but he projects to be an allstar NHL center for years to come.

-Simmonds.  He is still developing as a NHL player, but he's young (23 at season's start) and the Flyers will look for him to be around 20 goals/45 points.  From what I have seen, he's a physical player and his hits are heavy.

-Voracek.  The #7 pick in the 2007 draft, another winger with size still finding his role in the NHL (22).  No doubt though, he has high end potential.  His numbers at this point of his career compare favorably to Carter at the same point, and the Flyers will hope for 20+ goals and approaching 60 points.

Overall, I am excited.  The Flyers successfully addressed their biggest needs.  They added youthful, sizable physical wingers, made a huge upgrade in goal, got good draft picks, and added the best center prospect in hockey.  The price they paid was steep, but I think most Flyers fans were ready to say goodbye to Carter and Richards for better or for worse.  Exciting times indeed.  It almost feels like one of those trade frenzies you only pull off in video games.

Signing Bryzgalov

There is no progress to report on the Flyers signing Bryzgalov, and it will be no trivial task.  That said, giving the way the season ended and the trade for Bryzgalov's rights, I have to think the Flyers are going to do what it takes to get this done.  Substantive talks should take place this week, so we'll have to check on things on Friday.

So what will he sign for?  The more I think about it, I could see the Flyers going longer term to get the cap hit down.  I previously said I though he would sign for $6-6.5m.  Now I think that for every year the Flyers add beyond 4 years to the deal, the yearly cap hit will come down a little.  Maybe 6-7 years for between $5-5.7m is coming.

Assuming a deal gets done, the fun question is what will the Flyers do to create cap space?  I'm going to assume the Flyers sign Bryz for $5.7, give minimal raises to Powe and Nodl, and let Leino walk away.  That puts the Flyers payroll at $63 million with 11 forwards and 5 defensemen.  Obviously things have to go, and these are the options;
  -First thing, Carter could go.  I've previously addressed this, and I'd be very open to it because I think that represents the Flyers trading from a position of strength to get a large return and clear $5.27m.
  -Second, you've got to think very hard about trading Bobrovsky.  It doesn't make sense for the Flyers to carry the second-most expensive backup in the league, at a cap hit at $1.75m.  Also, by merit of playing 60 games this season, Bobrovsky must clear waivers before he can be sent down to the AHL, so that's no longer an option.  I have no problem with Bobrovsky learning the NHL game as a backup for a season or two, but that doesn't work if Bryzgalov is signed to 5+ years.
  -Third, Versteeg has not been worth his ~$3m cap hit.  The only drawback to trading Versteeg is that he doesn't command much trade value, and the Flyers just gave up a 1st and 3rd round pick to get him.  Oh well, that's not a reason to keep him though.
  -Fourth, some sources say the Flyers would rather trade Richards than Carter.  He would give about the same cap relief as trading Carter, though personally, I would rather trade Carter for many reasons.
  -Fifth, I am open to trading Carle, and I have previously evaluated his strengths and weaknesses.  For all his shortcomings however, he eats up a lot of 5-on-5 minutes, and the health of Pronger and Timonen is less than robust.  That should give the Flyers some pause before trading away a proven NHL defensemen.

So what should the Flyers be looking for in return?  Generally they should want high draft picks, a top defensive prospect, and/or a rugged winger.

It would be impossible to predict a particular deal, however some possibilities are emerging.
  -One possible trade partner is Florida.  Tallon is the new GM there, and he previously had Versteeg in Chicago, and may be interested in acquiring him.  They are also well under the cap-floor, so they have to add salary, and have no starting goalie under contract for next year.  Lastly, they have many pieces the Flyers may be interested in; Markstrom is a top goalie prospect, Gudbranson is a top defensive prospect who should be NHL-ready sooner rather than later, and they also have #3 pick.
  -There have already been rumors of the Blue Jackets trading the #8 pick and other pieces (Voracek?) for Carter.  I think the spine of that deal isn't too bad, with the Flyers getting a very high pick and a young physical winger.
  -Edmonton has the #1 pick, and is looking for a high-end center.
  -Colorado picks at #2 and #11, and their situation in net is unsettled.

The easiest way for the Flyers to open up some cap room is to trade Versteeg for little value, or see who may want Bobrovsky.  What actually shakes out though, is anyone's guess.

It's officially over

As expected, the Bruins series ended promptly this year.  It was a comprehensive thrashing.    There's really not much else to say about it, other than that it shouldn't be all that surprising given the way they looked at the end the season in general; disorganized defensively, tentative, physically unassertive.

I wanted to believe the Flyers would shape up and return to midseason form after some inspired play against Buffalo, but that proved to be a temporary flash against an inferior opponent.

Quick season review:
What went right?
-Giroux emerged as the best player on the team.

-JVR took a big step forward, and should be a key player next year.

-The Meszaros transaction worked out great, being the team's best defense from start to finish this year.  He is signed for 3 more years at $4m per and looks to be the heir apparent to leading the defense as Pronger's and Timonen's ice time declines due to age.

-Bobrovsky showed a lot of promise, with his best hockey coming in November.  That said, I strongly believe his NHL game is not a finished product, and there's no way I'd enter next season with him as the undisputed number 1.

-Nodl's first half.

-The defense was much stronger 1-6, at least when the roster was healthy.

What went wrong?
-Pronger had a mediocre regular season, had injury problems, and essentially missed the end of the season and playoffs.  Honestly I didn't care too much about his regular season because he's a playoff player, but that didn't really work out this year, did it.

-Timonen had his worst season as a Flyer, particularly in the playoffs.  Along with Pronger, questions have to be asked how much their skills will diminish in the next season or two and if they are breaking down.  Timonen is 36 years old and said it himself that he only has so many season in his "stumpy legs."  Maybe he was just playing injured in the playoffs...we'll have to see.

-Richards had an uninspiring regular season, and a particularly disappointing playoffs.  I still say he was injured/out-of-shape.  I hope for his sake it was injured and not the latter.  There's also a lot of chatter about his lack of leadership, but I know nothing about what is really happening in "the room", so I can't speak to that.

-The Versteeg trade is looking like a real dud.  He played a little better in the playoffs, but never contributing in any significant way.  He will have to do better next year to earn the $3m cap hit, or the Flyers should start looking to remedy the mistake of acquiring him in the first place.

-Nodl's second half, the return of Andreas No-Goal.

-Goaltending was not good enough.  It was rendered irrelevant in the Boston series, but the Flyers eeked by a much inferior Buffalo team after what was, taken collectively, probably the worst goaltending performance in a playoff series I've ever seen.

-The power play was really bad, somewhat inexplicably so.

-The Hartnell-Briere-Leino line lost its mojo in the second half of the season.  For last year's playoffs and the first half this year, they were pretty easily the Flyers best 5v5 line, manufacturing scoring chances and pinning in the other team.  Just as an example, Leino's 6 points in 11 playoff games this year is a far cry from his 21 in 19 games last year.

-100 straight games without a shutout.  It's hard to pin down the exact reasons for this, but I say roughly 2/3rds goaltending and 1/3 poor defensive zone coverage and lapses.  Much of a shutout is solid defense combined with a flawless performance by a goalie.



There is really no clear path forward for the Flyers.  That's not to say they're all of a sudden a bad team, I just mean that management could go in several completely different directions.  The only move I think they HAVE to make is a meaningful solution in goal.  What they should do with the skaters however (and if they should shake up the lineup) is very subjective, but almost nothing is off the table.

Game 2 Review

A wild game yesterday, with the Flyers coming out on the right side in the end. Hard to read too much into a game like yesterday with the first period being all over the place, and the rest of the game being a never ending stream of powerplays. Still, I thought it was a better effort from the Flyers. In my opinion, Miller did not play appreciably worse than game 1, where so many wanted to say he stole the game with 35 saves, yet the Flyers hit 5 goals and it wasn't just a lucky afternoon.

Comments;

Goaltending

The obvious question, though I don't think it's really a question anymore; Bobrovsky cannot start game 3.

Okay, I admit I'm a little biased. About a month ago I decided I would go with Boucher for the playoffs. Recent events have made Boucher the obvious choice for game 3, and I just can't see how starting Bobrovsky for game 3 is a defensible position.

Subjectively, Bobrovsky still has some obvious flaws in his game that he hasn't been able to meaningfully address this season. Foremost among them is discomfort with the puck around the net and goalline, and getting small on long shots (I've been beating these horses for a while). Those traits were on full display on the goals 2 and 3 yesterday respectively. Goal 2 in particular was badly misplayed by Bobrovsky, flailing in the crease instead of simply holding the post. Now the Flyers weren't exactly on lockdown for any of the three goals, but Bobrovsky looked completely out of sorts on all of them, and flopping around like a fish on the first goal which is something new for him. Right now, Bobrovsky has lost his way.

Objectively, the numbers are stunning. Bobrovsky has started 7 consecutive games, and has won zero with a .889 save percentage. Let me say that again--DURING THE MOST IMPORTANT STRETCH OF THE SEASON, BOBROVSKY HAS STARTED 7 CONSECUTIVE GAMES AND WON NONE. Even more distressing, in each of the two virtual must-win games for the Flyers (finale versus Islanders and game 2 against Sabres) Bobrovsky was pulled 12 minutes into the game after giving up 3 goals and looking lost. It is somewhat miraculous that Boucher has come into both of those and gotten the win.

I can't blame Laviolette for picking his guy and giving him the keys to the team. However Bobrovsky is not winning and is losing his way. In picking the Sabres to win the series in 7, I stated that I did not think Bob was capable of carrying the load, and worried that by the time Laviolette was ready to take him out, it would be too late.

Well, here is the moment of truth. Bobrovsky may have proven to be level-headed and resilient this season, but this is not just a matter of Bobrovsky bouncing back after a bad game. Bobrovsky is struggling badly and has been disastrous in 2 of his last 3 outings, yet the series is still 1-1. What will Laviolette do? For me the choice is easy. Granted, other writers are making the argument he should stay in, so who knows what will happen. I do have to say though, I find many those arguments completely misguided and unconvincing.

Richards

I'm beginning to think Richards is either sick, injured, or out-of-shape. He can't keep up with the pace of his teammates right now, and is constantly a step slow. He's not been much of a factor thus far.

Carter

Not much better than Richards, though showing less obvious signs of ailing. Just been a nonfactor, plain and simple.

JVR

Arguably the Flyers best forward thus far. He's made real nice strides this season, though maybe not the giant leap Giroux made last year in the playoffs.

Giroux

Speaking of Giroux, he has undoubtedly established himself as the offensive leader of this team. He even had the two biggest hits of the game for the Flyers last night. During the broadcast, the announcers said that, when asked who was the most competitive guy on the team, Briere answered Giroux. It's showing.

Versteeg

I haven't been impressed with Versteeg overall, but he was better last night.

Power play

Still awful. Thankfully the Flyers got one powerplay goal, but they were still 1-10 overall, including two embarrassing lengthy 5-on-3s. I think if the Flyers blew all those second period PPs and didn't score on any of them, they probably would've lost the game yesterday. Maybe getting Pronger back would help?

Pronger

Looks like Pronger won't be back for game 3, and who knows beyond? Even when he does come back, will he be as dangerous on the PP with his bad hand affecting his shot? Tomorrow will be 2.5 weeks since his "setback". Was his setbreak re-breaking his hand? Considering that he's still not shooting on it, yet was shooting on it 9 days after surgery last month, I think that's a real possibility.

Game 1 Review

I didn't have a good feeling about this series, and the Flyers did nothing for me tonight to change any of those worries.

Yes, the Flyers held a clear territorial edge in the play, had 35 shots, and probably outchanced Buffalo about 2-1. Much of the post-game talk was Miller, and Richards said if they continue to play like that, they'll have success.

I disagree. How many times did the Flyers get a great look where you get on the edge of your seat? Damn few. The only decent chances they had were jam plays where you hope somebody pokes the puck in the net when the goalie is down. Miller was solid but didn't do much of note.

This team is still afflicted with stop-and-pass syndrome. I lost count of all the times where the Flyers had odd-man numbers on a rush or around the goal and the puck carrier just stops skating, drifts and throws a hopeful pass into the slot which bounces away harmlessly. It's like the Flyers are afraid to carry the puck to the net or shoot from anywhere but the slot (a play which Buffalo took away). Briere and Meszaros are the only guys willing to shoot. This is the way they've been playing the last month, and it's doubtful it will change now. Carry the puck towards the net aggressively and force the issue!! Coasting and passing to the slot every time is predictable and easy to defend. I don't expect the Flyers to score many goals this series.

Other individual thoughts:

The good

-Real good game for JVR. Probably the Flyers best forward tonight.

-Good first period from Leino, and he created several chances overall.

-Can't fault Briere for anything tonight. He probably had the most hits of any Flyer.

-Bobrovsky gets a pass tonight. Was pretty good in the limited chances he faced, though he gave up a poor rebound that led to the only goal.

The not-so good

-Versteeg is really doing absolutely nothing for me (which has been the case since he arrived)

-Carter did nothing with the puck. He had a few scoring chances, but those came from hanging out away from the puck where Giroux and JVR set him up with their hard work.

-Good to see Richards come out with fire, but he did nothing this game and spent more time yelling at the refs than anything else. Same anonymous play as stretches of the regular season for him this year.

-The PP looked totally hopeless, not that there could've been any reasonable expectation of flipping the switch on that.

-Giroux is trying, but is out of sorts right now. Stickhandling 1-on-4 during the last PP?

My standing prediction was Buffalo in 7. 6 games is looking more likely.

Crunch Time

The playoff nominally start in approximately 7 days, but the Flyers may as well already be in the playoffs with their slim 1 point lead on the Pens. Time to get stuff in order, period.

First, after Leighton cleared waivers yesterday, Laviolette took the unusual step (for him) to announce Bobrovsky was starting tonight and will start in the playoffs. Not surprising that Bob is the guy, but Holmgren said he wanted Leighton to play Friday or Saturday, which may not happen now. As I said yesterday, it seems odd to me that the Flyers would expose Leighton to waivers now for him to be an undressed 3rd goalie. Or maybe they had to do it now? Goaltending hasn't really been the problem, but I wouldn't rule out doing something drastic to shake things up if the Flyers continue to slowly sink.

Second, Holmgren apparently laid down law on the team in a private meeting. Per Tim Panaccio:

tpanotch Tim Panaccio

Hartnell: “Paul Holmgren can be a scary guy,” said Scott Hartnell. “Especially, when he gives you that look.”

tpanotch Tim Panaccio

Peter Laviolette thought Holmgren's message/address to the team was constructive and well-received

tpanotch Tim Panaccio

Flyers say GM HOLMGREN address to them yesterday was a bit scary. Intimidating ...some said

LOL. It's not as simple as yelling and deciding to play harder all of a sudden, but I don't think it could hurt.

Third, there are the injuries. Briere partially practiced yesterday, though his status for tonight is unclear. No signs of Pronger, but you have to think he'll be ready for actual playoff games. Betts is also out.

The time for excuses is over. Time for Richards to get in playoff form. Carter needs to prove he can score in the playoffs. Versteeg needs to find his niche on this team. Can JVR be more of a factor this year?

Doom and Gloom Day

Time to get out all the doom and gloom.

-The Flyers lost 4 games in a row in regulation for the first time all season.

-The Flyers had one of their worst losses in years yesterday.

-The questionable goaltending is cracking.

-The entire Hartnell-Briere-Leino line doesn't look the same.

-Pronger's getting old.

-Versteeg isn't showing too much.

-O'Donnell is making more mistakes.

-The struggling PP is getting worse.

-The Flyers can't match their opponents' intensity, and when they should be raising their game for the playoffs, they are slumping.

Am I forgetting anything?

After Versteeg, what now?

Versteeg has yet to actually play for the Flyers, but that won't prevent a "day after" post.

First, I am pretty confident that the Flyers won't be able to sign Leino now that they've committed $3 million more to another player next season.

Second, will the Flyers move anybody else? I think that's what a lot of people are waiting for. They have more forwards than they need, and Carcillo and Zherdev aren't going to have very prominent roles sans injuries. On the other hand, I think each player has little trade value and the Flyers don't need to dump salary if they don't want to.

Eklund at hockeybuzz says Zherdev might go on waivers soon. As an Eklund rumor, it is slightly more believable than a story my 4-year old niece might make up.

Personally, I think Zherdev is a mentally lazy player. When he gets room on the rush, his stickhandling and shooting is unmatched on the Flyers roster. The rest of the time, he's slow to react and has lapses in concentration at both ends of the ice. Because he can score, he'd be an attractive waiver wire option to teams, but I can't see many teams giving up an asset of any value to acquire him. I'd love to be wrong, however. For that reason, I'd hang on to Zherdev, because I think he has value as a wildcard that can keep opposing teams off balance over the course of a long series.

Maybe the Flyers are looking a few other options, but I doubt there will be much of consequence coming back to the Flyers. There's just no room among the skaters, and what goalie options are there? If they really wanted to do something big, they could trade JVR, who the Leafs reportedly wanted. I'm glad they didn't, and I expect they're not pursuing options down that road.

UPDATE: Maybe the Flyers will trade Zherdev for another defensemen? Zherdev for a team's bottom pair guy (who would be a #7 on the Flyers) is plausible. From the reliable Dreger Report:

Kris Versteeg gives the Philadelphia Flyers another top nine offensive weapon and sends a direct message to all of Philadelphia's rivals - the Flyers believe this is the year.

Paul Holmgren is still looking for a defenceman to round out his roster, but landing Versteeg was a priority for the Flyers GM.

Brian Burke was keenly interested in forward James Van Riemsdyk, but Holmgren made it clear that JVR was not going to be part of this deal.

Philadelphia is stronger today and because of that, Boston, Tampa Bay and all teams who consider themselves contenders may now be eagerly trying to measure up.

Another team source involved in trade discussions says as soon as the Versteeg trade to Philly was announced, his phone started ringing.

Flyers trade for Kris Versteeg

I am caught a little off-guard by this one. I have heard some rumors about the Flyers talking to the Leafs for a trade, maybe for Giguere, maybe for Versteeg, but there never seemed to be enough momentum to any deal to think anything was imminent, and thus worthy of being passed on to the loyal Mostly Flyers readership.

I just didn't see the Flyers and Leafs interests aligning, and I'm still not sure I do. The Leafs are clearly in rebuild mode, looking for youngsters and picks. The Flyers have few of both, but they decided to part some of the few picks they have.

Versteeg is a quality young player. He can play anywhere in the lineup, in all situations, and was a valuable member of the Hawks during their cup run. But did the Flyers need another forward? They seem to have enough trouble spreading around the ice time for the forwards they already have.

I presume Versteeg will be playing with Richards, and Nodl or JVR will be bumped off their spot there. Or I guess they could use him to stabilize the Carter-Giroux line that has seen Zherdev pass through. Either way, Nodl or JVR will be fighting for their ice time, and Zherdev and Carcillo are one step further out to the fringe of the squad.

The good news is that the Flyers didn't lose anything off their roster for this season. It appears they're going all-in for this season, and this may have been the best acquisition available to them to improve this year's squad (even if Versteeg is something of a luxury for a team that is already deep at forward). Goalie is their obvious achilles heel, but there may not have been any good options out there. I would've liked to see Erik Cole too, but I have to think acquiring Versteeg is the end of that.

Lastly, Versteeg is signed for next season at approximately $3 million. Hmm, exactly the same amount the Flyers have reportedly offered to Ville Leino... And then there's this report from over the weekend;

Meanwhile, contract talks with left wing Ville Leino appear to have stalled. The Flyers are believed to have offered Leino three- and four-year contract extensions worth $3 million a season. Leino, who is making $800,000 and is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1, apparently believes he is worth more on the open market.

The writing is on the wall for Leino's future with the Flyers I think.