And the survey says....yes. I didn't want to disappoint my readership and leave this questing hanging, and moreover if he's going to get fired during this season, it might happen now that the Flyers have several days off. Yes, I know Holmgren has recently given Laviolette the dreaded vote of confidence, but I don't think that's worth much.
Things with the Flyers are disappointing enough that most fans are pointing the finger at Laviolette. Flyers fans are not a patient lot, but I think it makes sense this time around.
-For one, it's that time. The average NHL coach lasts less than 3 seasons. They are hired to be fired, and everyone knows this. Laviolette is approaching 250 games coached with the Flyers, which is about how long his predecessors in Philadelphia lasted.
More to the point though, Laviolette is a yeller, and it seems he has lost "the room." His uptempo attacking system demands a lot of the players, and the Flyers have been unable to consistently provide that effort. Too often, the Flyers put in a great 10 minutes and quit until Laviolette screams at them. It's like kids who act out as soon as their parents give them any breathing room. It's not sustaining, and that lack of sustainability may be contributing to the Flyers awful 1-6 record when tied after 2 periods.
Also, consider Laviolette's previous jobs. In his first season in Long Island he led them to their first playoff appearance in several seasons, but only lasted one more year after that. In Carolina, in his first full season in charge they finished first in their division and won the cup. 2.5 mediocre years followed and he was fired. Philadelphia continues the pattern, reaching the finals after taking over midseason, and he followed that up with a first place finish the next regular season. The pattern seems clear; cracking success early, followed by diminishing returns thereafter. It probably isn't wise to expect a revival under Laviolette next year.
-Second, his system is not working with this group of players. The Flyers sorely lack puck carriers on the back end, and are not the fastest most skillful lot in general. The makeover to the defense has actually involved Carle leaving, and big slow physical players like Schenn and Grossmann arriving. Laviolette's system requires constant pressing, and these guys are not equipped to do so.
This system is not wide-open offense, but there are a few things that shouldn't happen when successfully instituted;
-A team that successfully presses shouldn't capitulate when falling down 1-0. Laviolette teams are usually top 10 in this category. The Flyers are currently 23rd.
-A team that successfully presses should get a fair amount of 5-on-5 goals. Successful Laviolette teams are often top 5 in this category. The Flyers are currently 22nd.
None of this is to say that the Flyers would be a juggernaut with a different coach. They're better than this though, and I think it's time to move on.
Opinions on NHL topics of the moment, but mostly on the Flyers.
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
Friday, March 15, 2013
State of the Flyers
As I see it, there are two burning questions for the Flyers at the moment. One, should Laviolette be fired? Two, should Couturier be traded? The question of if the Flyers should trade to bolster this year's playoff run is no longer a reasonable question; the answer is an emphatic no.
Before getting to those burning questions, let's review the state of the Flyers through a few illustrative statistics.
-The Flyers power play is 6th overall. After a terrible start to the season, the Flyers power play is now terrific, and operates near 30% at home. Count this as one problem solved.
-Similarly, the penalty kill has rebounded to 11th in the league, and is a quality unit. The problem is, the Flyers have been shorthanded 114 times, worst in the league.
-The Flyers collapse when they fall behind. When the opponent scores first, the Flyers only win 20% of the time, 25th in the league. When trailing after 2 periods, the Flyers are 1-10 (9.1%), 27th in the league. Most shockingly, the Flyers are 0-10 when trailing after the first period!
-Unfortunately, I cannot find stats for when teams are tied after 2 periods. I suspect the Flyers would be at the bottom of the league in points earned in such situations.
-The Flyers are a bad 5-on-5 team, with a goal differential of .8. That is also 25th in the league. More concerning than absolute goal difference however, is that the Flyers are 22nd in 5-on-5 goal scoring. An uptempo attacking team should be scoring goals, win or lose.
-I would not have guessed it, but the Flyers do a pretty good job when leading after 2 periods, winning 91.7% of the time. This is 6th in the league.
-The Flyers actually block a lot of shots; 4th in the league.
-The Flyers are a solid 8-4-1 at home, but are 4-11-0 on the road.
So with that in mind, I will follow with a post on Laviolette this weekend.
Before getting to those burning questions, let's review the state of the Flyers through a few illustrative statistics.
-The Flyers power play is 6th overall. After a terrible start to the season, the Flyers power play is now terrific, and operates near 30% at home. Count this as one problem solved.
-Similarly, the penalty kill has rebounded to 11th in the league, and is a quality unit. The problem is, the Flyers have been shorthanded 114 times, worst in the league.
-The Flyers collapse when they fall behind. When the opponent scores first, the Flyers only win 20% of the time, 25th in the league. When trailing after 2 periods, the Flyers are 1-10 (9.1%), 27th in the league. Most shockingly, the Flyers are 0-10 when trailing after the first period!
-Unfortunately, I cannot find stats for when teams are tied after 2 periods. I suspect the Flyers would be at the bottom of the league in points earned in such situations.
-The Flyers are a bad 5-on-5 team, with a goal differential of .8. That is also 25th in the league. More concerning than absolute goal difference however, is that the Flyers are 22nd in 5-on-5 goal scoring. An uptempo attacking team should be scoring goals, win or lose.
-I would not have guessed it, but the Flyers do a pretty good job when leading after 2 periods, winning 91.7% of the time. This is 6th in the league.
-The Flyers actually block a lot of shots; 4th in the league.
-The Flyers are a solid 8-4-1 at home, but are 4-11-0 on the road.
So with that in mind, I will follow with a post on Laviolette this weekend.
Sunday, March 10, 2013
Reality Setting In
So I've been saying it for over a month, but this is not a good hockey team. Apparently it took many fans and media this long to come to this conclusion, but now panic and hand-wringing abounds.
The Flyers' "rivalry" week against top eastern teams has been a decisive failure. The Flyers enjoyed first period leads of 2-1 and 4-1 respectively against the Rangers and Penguins, but then were outscored 7-0 in the remainders of those games. Against the Bruins, the Flyers never got off the mark and took a meek 3-0 loss.
Many things are going wrong. The players appear to have given up on Laviolette. Bryzgalov has not been sharp. Couturier's confidence is extremely low. Overall frustration grows. While I will look at some of these issues in more detail in upcoming posts, suffice it to say things are looking quite bleak.
If there's any question as to how this season will progress, consider these cold hard numbers.
--The last few years, it has taken approximately 1.12 points per game to earn a playoff spot in the east. In this shortened 48 game season, that equals 53/54 points.
--The Flyers currently have 23 points in 26 games. This equals .88 points per game, which puts the Flyers 12th out 15 teams in the East.
--To reach 53 points, the Flyers must earn 30 points in their final 22 games, or 1.36 points per game. This is equivalent to Pittsburgh's current record, 3rd best in the East.
Does anyone think this team is capable of performing as the third best team in the east the remainder of the season? I didn't think so. This team is not making the playoffs.
The Flyers' "rivalry" week against top eastern teams has been a decisive failure. The Flyers enjoyed first period leads of 2-1 and 4-1 respectively against the Rangers and Penguins, but then were outscored 7-0 in the remainders of those games. Against the Bruins, the Flyers never got off the mark and took a meek 3-0 loss.
Many things are going wrong. The players appear to have given up on Laviolette. Bryzgalov has not been sharp. Couturier's confidence is extremely low. Overall frustration grows. While I will look at some of these issues in more detail in upcoming posts, suffice it to say things are looking quite bleak.
If there's any question as to how this season will progress, consider these cold hard numbers.
--The last few years, it has taken approximately 1.12 points per game to earn a playoff spot in the east. In this shortened 48 game season, that equals 53/54 points.
--The Flyers currently have 23 points in 26 games. This equals .88 points per game, which puts the Flyers 12th out 15 teams in the East.
--To reach 53 points, the Flyers must earn 30 points in their final 22 games, or 1.36 points per game. This is equivalent to Pittsburgh's current record, 3rd best in the East.
Does anyone think this team is capable of performing as the third best team in the east the remainder of the season? I didn't think so. This team is not making the playoffs.
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