Draft Weekend Recap

Indeed, the pieces on the board began to move this weekend for the Flyers.  The rumors were getting crazy on Thursday, and the Flyer were supposedly in on everyone; Nash, Parise, Ryan, Suter, Weber, and trading up in the draft.  Ultimately, the Flyers made far less daring moves.

JVR
The move that was so heavily rumored in March finally came about.  For starters, I am on board with trading JVR.  He seems like a good kid, and he has the talent, I'm just not sure I see him producing consistently.  Often the only difference between a journey-man goal scorer and a top line allstar is consistency, and I think JVR will always be a streaky player.  He's not effective playing on the outside, and he's simply not a banger at heart.  Either way, I've previously written about his development here and here.

As for the particulars on this trade, I wrote about this in March, and not much has changed since...

On paper, the trade makes a lot of sense.  It is a like-for-like trade:
-both players were very high draft picks; JVR #2 in 2007 and Schenn #5 in 2008
-both players have made some noise in the NHL, with Schenn immediately joining the big club as an 18 year old and JVR turning a lot of heads in the playoffs last year
-both players may be seen as underwhelming in their development, with Schenn's ice time down this year and JVR not building off last year's playoffs
-both players are signed to manageable long term contracts

The Flyers need defensemen, the Leafs need size up front.  The trade is merely teams trying to address an organizational need while holding their salary, youth and long term potential constant.

All that said, the devil will be in details.  Flyers fans expect Schenn and other goodies for JVR, and Leafs fan vice-versa.  A rumor I read yesterday is that it will be the Flyers who have to sweeten the pot to complete the deal, and the Leafs want Matt Read.

No thanks on that one.  If that's the case I walk away.

http://mostlyflyers.blogspot.com/2012/01/jvr-for-luke-schenn.html


The Flyers top need was a physical dman, and they now have a promising young one.  A good, simple, hockey trade without a clear "winner" in my opinion.

Bobrovsky
Like JVR, I was ready to see Bob go.  I also wrote about this the other day.  Either way, I think his most likely career path is as a backup or journeyman starter.  He will now get a chance to prove himself in Columbus that he won't get here.

The Flyers should be happy with the trade return for him.  I think his reputation around the league has sunk a little bit over the last several months, and there was no way the Flyers were going to get the kind of return the Caps got for Varlamov last year---ultimately a fairly high first round pick in a deal that shocked a lot around the league.  Still, to salvage a mid-second round pick and two 4th rounders is a good return.  The Flyers definitely benefitted from other teams snatching up backup goalie candidates in the previous week, apparently allowing the Flyers to choose between Winnpeg's offer of the #39 pick, or the #45 pick and two 4th rounders from Columbus.

Incidentally, the Flyers drafted a goalie with the #45 pick.

Draft Picks
I will not pretend to know much about who the Flyers drafted.  Regarding their first round pick, it was mildly disappointing to see them take a center without high-end potential when they have rarely picked in the first round at all the last few years and desperately need defensemen in the system.  On the other hand, this player appears very likely to actually graduate to the NHL, and the Flyers have been amazing at picking winners late in the first round (Gagne, Williams, Giroux).  Scouts say this is a very poor draft class as well.

What Next?
First, this is how I see the Flyers cap situation;

To complete this, I guessed at a value for Voracek, and plugged in a backup goalie that may not be accurate, but the salary should be.  I also plugged in Carle at $4.25, although I find it hard to believe he will sign for so little, but people keep throwing it out there.  The takeaway is that the Flyers could have about $6 million or more to throw at a top-6 forward.

I think their pursuit of Nash is now dead.  JVR and Bob were their two major trading chips to get Nash, and they have been cashed in.  Personally, I think the Columbus GM is overplaying his hand, and as teams like the Flyers move on, the offers for Nash will now begin to get worse.  I wasn't a huge fan of Nash to Philly anyway.

The two major targets the Flyers could go after is Parise or Ryan.  Again, the Flyers don't have many assets left to trade for Ryan, so I'm not seeing it.  Regarding Parise, I think the Flyers have a lot of interest and will make an offer.  I have my doubts about how they'll fare in a bidding war on the open market, however.

The conservative course is to resign Jagr and pick up a role-player for the bottom two lines for about $5 million combined.  This is probably the wisest course in my opinion.  Granted, maybe the Flyers can't resign Carle or Voracek (silence is ominous regarding his extension, I think), and then all this needs to be re-evaluated.

Rumor Roundup

Things are about to get interesting this offseason.  The draft is Friday, and free agency starts July 1.  The draft is the most likely time for offseason trades to occur (and the Flyers have a well-established history of doing so), so the pieces on the table could start moving then.  Also, Holmgren has not gone to much trouble denying that he will be looking to improve the team this offseason.  With that in mind, here are some of the items to track regarding the Flyers.

Jagr - The on-again, off-again re-signing took another turn this week, as Darren Dreger reported that Jagr will test free agency.  Some have said the only reason the Flyers haven't signed him already is tagging space, but once July 1 hits and the offers roll in, all bets are off.  I read a post on a message board yesterday (I know, I know....) but it sounded completely reasonable---that the Flyers have a deal on the table that Jagr will sign, but he wants to wait and see if a contender will give him better playing time guarantees.  Such a contingency is completely consistent with this saga.  In the end, I don't think there are many NHL teams out there willing to give Jagr that assurance, but all it takes is one...

Carle - Carle is in a similar boat to Jagr---Holmgren keeps saying he is confident the team can sign him, and "at below market rate" no less.  Carle has said he prefers to stay in Philadelphia, but how much of a discount will he accept to stay?  The above quote is as close to an NHL team will come to admitting they are lowballing a player, and I have maintained all season that someone will throw $5+ million at Carle.  Elliote Friedman also said that Carle may prefer to go west, and be closer to his home state of Alaska.

Bobrovsky - This is more of an under-the-radar piece, but there is some writing on the wall that Bobrovsky's time in Philly is up.  He doesn't seem well suited to back up Bryz, he will be a UFA after this season, and a team with needs in goal might be willing to give him some playing time.  With Vokoun signing in Pittsburgh, TB trading for Lindback, and Harding re-signing in Minny, the options for a secondary goalie are diminishing.  This could cause a few teams to turn to Bob.  Alone, I don't think he will command much in return, but he could be part of a bigger deal.

Draft - It is being widely reported that the Flyers are looking to move up in the draft, probably into the top 10.  I am ignorant of the prospects this year, though word is that it's generally not a very good draft class this year.  The only thing I'll say here, is that an asset traded to move up in the draft is an asset that cannot be used in a trade to strengthen the roster this year.

Suter - I think the Flyers would still love to have Suter, and they will make him an offer, but all the signs and buzz point to him going elsewhere.  I still say Detroit.

Weber - I'm still holding out hope that the Flyers could land Weber this offseason.  There are trade packages the Flyers can create out that Nashville should be receptive to, but if Suter walks away, they will pull out all the stops to get Weber signed long term.  Really the only hope is here that Weber simply refuses to sign long term despite Nashville throwing big dollars at him, and Nashville decides to get what it can for him before he becomes a UFA next offseason.

Nash - The reports of the Flyers interest in Nash simply won't die, which speaks volumes.  There's not much more to say here, other than DON'T TRADE COOTER, period.  The smart money says the Rangers, who have the best assets for Columbus and the will to get it done.

Parise - If the Flyers don't end up with Nash, reports have floated around of the Flyers have big time interest in Parise, who will be a UFA.  I thought Parise looked excellent in the playoffs this year, and there will be a bidding war for him this offseason.  He has stated his preference for staying in NJ, but the Devils are in dire financial straits and may not be able to keep close to market rates.  Parise has also stated he would never sign with the Rangers out of respect for the Devils, and that may preclude other Atlantic division teams like the Flyers.  Either way, he's a great player, but I'm not sure if the Flyers need another small forward..

Ryan - Rounding out the big name wings, Bobby Ryan is back on the trade market.  A top-notch young power winger, Anaheim will be asking for A LOT.  I am doubtful the Flyers can, or should, meet Anaheim's asking price, despite Ryan being a local kid with longtime ties to the Flyers organization.

Briere - Another under-the-radar item, Briere is a longshot for a trade, and the Flyers may have already received offers for him.  Briere is 34 and has 3 years left at a cap hit of $6.5 million, however he is only actually due to be paid $12 (7, 3, 2) million over that span.  Therefore, smaller market teams who have plenty of cap space see a $4m actual commitment to Briere, not a $6.5m cap commitment.  Briere's regular seasons with the Flyers have been hit-and-miss, but he's been a huge playoff performer.  He also has a NMC clause.  In my opinion, the Flyers can only even consider this if they think Schenn and Cooter are both ready for prime time.

Rob Zombie - Rob Zombie reportedly wants to write and direct a movie about the 1974 Flyers.  Wow.

Offseason Preparations

I've had my little break, and the dust has settled after the playoff exit.  Offseason grumblings are beginning to trickle out, so I'd like to make sense of it all.

Starting with the least speculative news, multiple reports last week indicated Jagr's first choice is to indeed resign with the Flyers, despite the indications that he was ready to move on fresh off the playoff loss.  Talks with the Flyers are said to be progressing, with one rumor on twitter saying that an agreement is already reached.

Additionally, claims are that the Flyers will resign Carle too, at slightly below market rate.  The twist to all this that the Flyers don't have the "tagging space" to sign them yet (basically, your payroll next year can't exceed this year's cap).  As a result, the cap will rise to $70.3 million on July 1, and the Flyers will be free to sign these guys then.  By that time however, Carle will officially be a free agent, and I still think someone throws $5+ million at him.  Could that throw a wrench in the Flyers plans?

Either way, let's assume these signings both happen.  Now I have heard NOTHING about Voracek resigning, but let's plug that in too.  You get this picture.

*This is without the "bonus cushion."  This means that for players like Schenn, his cap hit will be the full $3.11m until he misses a bonus benchmark.   This will happen soon, but even so, this is the limit with which the Flyers must comply on opening day.  If there is the "bonus cushion" this season, the Flyers can exceed the cap by such a bonus, but would be penalized if the players ultimately earned the bonus and send the Flyers over the cap.

Now ignore the lines, and I had to guess at contract values for Jagr, Voracek and Carle, but this should be more or less accurate.  The main takeaway is that, making no other changes, merely resigning these guys leaves little cap space for other signings.  This leaves the possibility of a plain vanilla offseason of resignings only, with no other acquisitions of note.

The Flyers rarely stand pat though, often pulling off trades at the draft.  I'm not going to speculate on roster depth maneuvers, but there could be a few big pieces in play.

JVR-Nash Rumors
For one, Howard Eskin dropped this nugget yesterday; JVR is delaying having surgery, which could hold up a trade for Nash because the Flyers can't trade him if he isn't healthy.  Now Eskin knows nothing about hockey in terms of analysis, but his information is good.  He usually only says something about the Flyers when he gets good info.

JVR was on the Flyers post-season surgery list, and unusually (but not shockingly), he has not had the surgery yet.  The Flyers have already denied the insinuation that there is any intent on the part of JVR to delay his surgery, and that does seem like a bombastic accusation. 

Putting aside the question of intent by JVR, but taking the underlying issue of his health holding up a trade as true, this transaction would return to a few themes.  Go back to the trade deadline, and the Flyers were players for Nash.  It was left at, and I quote Darren Dreger, "Price too high for Flyers(at moment) for Nash. May re-engage later. JVR,Bobrovski, Schenn or Couturier believed to be part of asking price."  Also, this would be the second time a JVR injury is seen as holding up a deal, as he was out with a concussion in February when the Luke Schenn trade rumors were everywhere.

I've already evaluated a JVR-Nash trade, but my stance remains the same---JVR will never be the player Nash is, but Nash's best days are behind him.  JVR and Bob I'd be happy to trade, but I would not include Schenn or Cooter in the trade for a diminishing star with a big cap hit like Nash.  We'll see if there's anything to this.

Nashville Defensemen
Putting aside Nash, the Flyers real need is top-end defensemen.  The two names being thrown around are Suter and Tobias Enstrom.  Enstrom is basically a younger Timonen, but he has one year left on his contract (at a low cap it), and would require a trade to acquire.  Suter will be a free agent on July 1, and Nashville is trying hard to resign him.

I've seen reports that the Suter doesn't want to sign with the Flyers, but even assuming those are incorrect, I doubt we'll see this signing.  For one, Nashville has the cap space and will pull out all the stops to keep him.  Second, everyone knows Detroit wants him, and Detroit has just seen Lidstrom retire and is letting Stuart go.  I think Suter stays in Nashville or goes to Detroit.

This situation creates a second domino--Shea Weber.  He is my grand hope for the Flyers this offseason.  A full-on replacement for Chris Pronger.  Weber is a restricted free agent, so practically this means a trade.  JVR again?  (A JVR+Mesz+picks seems to be a popular rumor.  I'd take that trade FWIW.)  The wrinkle here is that Weber and Suter are the spine of Nashville's team, and despite their limited budget, I can't see any way they let both Weber and Suter go.  Despite my fantasies, I think the most likely scenario is Suter to Detroit, Weber staying in Nashville.

Bobrovsky
Getting back to Bobrovsky, the Flyers could try to save some cap space but getting a cheaper backup.  Bob's future prospects in Philadelphia are waning, though I was an advocate of trading him last offseason.  I don't think Bob has nearly as much trading value as Flyers fans like to believe, but the time might be right to trade him anyway and bring in an experienced number 2.