Fool Me Twice

So there were some ugly incidents this weekend in Pens-Bruins game.  I have no love lost for either team.  Boston have several guys that rub me the wrong way; Marchand is a irritating douche (pardon my language), Lucic takes liberties, and no one ever accused Chara of being an angel.  On the other side, while Matt Cooke has departed (a favorite of mine), for my money, Malkin is one of the biggest weasels in the league, and Neal seems to be willing to stoop quite low.

When 2 jerks meet, bad things happen.

Orpik started things out with a hit that seems borderline to me.

It needs to be said Orpik didn't leave his feet or commit charging, and that the hit was basically shoulder-to-shoulder.  What makes it borderline is the Eriksson never really played the puck, but Orpik had him lined up and he looked like an EASHL player who says "screw it, I've got him lined up, I'm laying him out anyway."  Immediately after, Thornton, tried to start something with Orpik, but got nowhere with that effort.

Later, Crosby tripped up Marchand, and Neal delivered a fly-by knee to the head.

The video is pretty damning, with Neal clearly leaning the shin and shoulder out when he could've easily avoided him, and then not looking back after, which is what you do after an accident.  After the game, Neal made some half-hearted denials that it wasn't intentional, and said "I guess [I need] to get my knee out of the way."

Lastly, Thornton ran down Orpik from across the ice, threw him down to ice, and got in 2 quick shots to the jaw.  The punches knocked Orpik out.  Thornton will be suspended, as there's little defense for his dogged pursuit of instigating with Orpik.  I am surprised the quick punch knocked out Orpik so completely, but the whole thing feels a little bit like Marty McSorley lite, chasing down an opposing player and dangerously trying to start a scrap.

But getting back to the Neal hit, this isn't the first time Neal has been in the same position.  Flyers fans should remember this one (specifically the Couturier part);

At the time, the NHL was "willing to accept Neal's assertion" that it was an "unintended collision" (@0:30 of the video).  It struck me as a ludicrous defense, and I wrote at the time he should've been suspended.

Now can we be clear about Neal's tricks?  Suspend this guy.

Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice...

Couturier Back on Track

Forgive me, but I started a new job 6 weeks ago, so this blog has been down on my priority list.   Given this big group of time between posts, I will not even bother to touch on all the things that have happened with the Flyers since.

The one thing I will talk about here is Sean Couturier's improved play, and that the Cooter-Read-Downie line has been the Flyers only good line the last few weeks.

Go back to November 19, the Flyers were still in their winning streak, and Cooter got what was simply a lucky goal.  Afterwards, Berube made the requisite comment about how that goal should increase his confidence and maybe start him on a roll.  *eyeroll*

The thing is, it has done exactly that.  As the Flyers saw their winning streak end, and resumed their awful offensive form that we saw in October, the even strength offense completely vanished.  Look at the numbers from the go-to offensive guys:
-Giroux, 3 ES points, +3
-Voracek, 1 ES point, -1
-Lecavalier, 2 ES points, -1
-Hartnell, 3 ES points, +1
-Schenn, 2 ES points, -1

Now look at the Cooter line since November 19:
Couturier, 8 ES points, +10
Downie, 6 ES points, +7
Read, 7 ES points, +8

During the Flyers current cold streak, the Cooter line really has indeed been the only line performing most nights.  Having only one line playing well is bad news by itself, but it is really positive for the big picture to see this line playing so well.

For one, Couturier showing some offensive ability is massive.  I have been pretty disappointed with his development since his rookie year, and I was beginning to resign myself to adjusting my career expectations for him downwards from my previously lofty expectations.

Two, Downie has become a very productive player for this team.  Coincidentally, my last post was about how I liked the Downie trade, and while his niche has not been on the Giroux line, the trade looks very good today.  (I'm not sure why so many Flyers fans had a reflexive negative reaction about trading away a 4th liner, anyway).

"We needed something to stir the pot"

"We needed something to stir the pot."  -Paul Holmgren yesterday.

That right there, is the Downie acquisition in one sentence.

I was very surprised to see the Talbot for Downie trade, although we shouldn't really be surprised when the Flyers reacquire a former player.  Upon letting the trade sink in, it's hard to see many downsides to the deal, in my opinion.

For starters, Downie is clearly much more talented offensively than Talbot.  Talbot is basically a 4th line, penalty-killing, character guy.  He's a 20-30 point player.

Downie is capable of much more.  He certainly looked like a player on the rise in his first season in Tampa, hitting 46 points as a 21 year old, while becoming the first player since Theo Fleury to score 20 goals and have 200 PIMs.  That season came after he was traded along with Steve Eminger, a surplus defensemen, for Matt Carle.  That in itself tells you something of his worth as a player.

The risks with Downie is his discipline and injuries, as well as UFA status after this season.  Regarding injuries, he missed nearly all of the shortened season last year, but thus far this season, he's been healthy and productive.  Probably more importantly, his lack of control on the ice is what got him traded from the Flyers in first place.  I haven't seen him play much the last few years, but the Flyers hope that at 26, Downie is more reliable than he was at 21.

With the Flyers, it makes sense for Downie to slide in on the wing of the Giroux-Lecavalier line.  This is clearly an upgrade from Raffl and Talbot who have been used there the last few games.  In this role, I think Downie's ceiling is ~25 goal, 60 point player.

One last point to consider is that the Avs are likely pinching pennies here.  They've been on a smaller budget since their cup years, and Talbot is only owed a total of $2.25m over the following 2 years, while Downie will be a free agent.  This is a day when it pays to be a rich team like the Flyers, snatching up a talented player.

Of course it could all go wrong, Downie may get hurt, or otherwise fail to fit in to the team, and then move on in the offseason.  But really, what's the worst case there?  The Flyers lose a 4th line player?  It's worth the risk.

The Flyers needed something to change the chemistry of their team.  More importantly, at some point the defense needs a fundamental makeover, but until then this does give the team a little shot in the arm as the Flyers grope for a new identity under Berube.

Inspirational Video

First, let me say that I do think the Flyers are slowly turning a corner towards respectability this season as Berube finally makes his mark on the team.  Regardless, I was joking around with a friend of Mostly Flyers last week, and this highly inspirational video was the result.

Missing Matt Carle

The Flyers had another sour loss the other night.  Now I will raise my hand as one of the people seeing improvement under Berube.  Their only win was not a great performance in my opinion, and while they have lost 3 in a row, they have all been credible performances with the team notably much better at 5-on-5.  Of course there are still lots to work on such as terrible special teams (compounded by taking a ton of minor penalties), 3rd period swoons...

I have faith that those things will improve, but one also has to look at the roster and identify its shortcomings. It is easy for anyone to immediately identify that the team hasn't replaced Chris Pronger, in skills or leadership, but no one mentions Matt Carle anymore.

I probably fall into the group that didn't appreciate Carle enough when he was here, and I was ready to say good riddance at his current price of $5.5m, but I have to admit his absence is really hurting.  Seeing Keith Yandle weave around the ice with the puck the other night reminded me of this, as he and Carle have very similar skill sets.  Yandle puts the puck in the net more often with a much better shot, but the puck carrying and skating is similar.

The Flyers brought in Streit, with all his offensive talents, but no expects the smaller, older Streit, to play the 23+ minutes Carle used to play.  This means the Flyers are still without a take-charge, high-minutes, puck carrying defensemen or can control the game tempo.

Holmgren is not an idiot.  He knows the Flyers defense is inadequate, and that's why he's tried to acquire Ryan Suter and Shea Weber recently.  Either way, they're not here, and something needs to be done.  There is no easy path for Holmgren that I know about, but he needs to get creative in how he can change the chemistry of the Flyers' defensive group.

ANUSTART for the Flyers

First of all, if you don't get the "a new start" joke, you should watch Arrested Development (although this joke specifically comes from Season 4, which is by far the worst season).

Anyway, I decided to get my ass to the game last night to check things out properly for the start of the Berube era.  I suppose all's well that ends well, but it was hardly an impressive performance.

Given the extremely awkward firing of Lavy, Berube tried to change things as quickly as possible.  Local media said the Flyers gameday morning skate was the longest they've ever seen, and was more like a practice with 5-on-5 scenarios, then with a team meeting after.

Changes were pretty evident on the ice against the Panthers.  On paper, all the lines and defensive pairs were different.  The more meaningful changes were a little deeper, though.  Gone was the patented Laviolette stretch-pass.  The Flyers breakout was more deliberate, with the wings not nearly as far as up the ice.

Similarly, in the defensive zone, the wingers collapsed much more to protect the net instead of having one eye towards a quick breakout.  This is a more modern/common tactic in the NHL these days, although on this night it didn't result in tighter defensive coverage.  The Panthers had a lot of time and space with the puck in the offensive zone, including some sparkling chances.  Fortunately, Mason played a great game with several big stops, and good rebound control on others.

Offensively, the differences weren't as visible, although maybe it was harder to see because the Flyers didn't spend a lot of time in the offensive zone!  Early on, they did appear a little more direct in getting the puck to scoring areas.  Both goals the Flyers scored were pretty fluky, and they didn't generate a whole lot all night.

Nevertheless, with this coaching change I am getting the change I've wanted from the Flyers tactics for quite a while (see this post from February 2012).  There remains a lot of work to do to get there, however.  There is nothing to celebrate about a 2-1 win against a terrible team on the strength of fluky goals and heroic goaltending.

This required work not only applies to the coaching staff and players, but to Holmgren as well.  Let's make these long rumored trades of moving out a defensemen or two, and begin to tailor this lineup to Berube's style of play.  This doesn't need to happen or overnight, but the current mix of players is not exactly clicking.

This all leaves me with renewed enthusiasm for the season, but the first step is scoring a few goals and showing everyone that the Flyers are not a bottom-10 NHL team.

Laviolette Fired, But Blame Homer for this Mess

I was prepared this morning to write a post about how the Flyers horrid start this season is not very surprising.  I was going to point out that, this season, the Flyers have been outscored 6-1 at 5-on-5 for a goal ratio of 0.17 (which is 29th, technically ahead of the Rangers, who have only played one game, which resulted in no 5-on-5 goals for a ratio of 0.00).  I was going to point out that, thus far, the Flyers have similarly been outscored 6-1 in the 3rd period, which is dead last in the league.

I was then going to say this shouldn't be altogether surprising. because last year the Flyers were 25th in 5-on-5 goal differential (0.86).  They were -15 in the 3rd period last year, which was 28th in the league.  In short, these are old problems, and the team largely looks the same as it did in the preseason anyway.

Lastly, I was also going to say why would you fire Laviolette after 3 games?  Again, I'll refer back to my post from March stating that it was time for a change.  The thing is, deciding a change is necessary is one thing, and doing it properly is another.  Whatever reason Holmgren had for sticking with Laviolette all this time, 3 regular season games couldn't possibly have changed everything (and I've stated above that haven't really changed much of anything, actually).

The proper way to do a coaching change is in the offseason.  Then, you have the most candidates available to choose from, and the new coach has the offseason and training camp to prepare for the season.  Firing a coach 3 games into the season is basically a GM admitting he bungled the situation.  Badly.

But here we are, and I suppose I can't be too upset.  The Flyers have looked like the worst team in the NHL thus far.  On paper, they should at least be a top-20 team, so what's the worst that could happen?  Nevertheless, I have to wonder how much structural change can be brought to a team with a midseason coaching change, that also promotes a guy already on the coaching staff (Berube).

I can now watch the game tomorrow with some interest.  Watching the Montreal and Carolina games were absolutely awful, and the Flyers looked like lame ducks.  At least they'll have some new urgency.  The problem is that Holmgren is 2/3 months late in acknowledging that things were broken, and I'm not sure the Flyers can change course as necessary in mid-season with an interim coach.

(CORRECTION: Berube is not getting the interim tag)

A Familiar Story

Another season, a familiar pattern of events.  The Flyers lost 3-1 in their opener to the Leafs, and themes of last season begin immediately this year.

First, I'll start with the positives.  Those were good debuts from Lecavalier and Streit.  I can see Streit getting a lot of points this season, and Lecavalier created a lot of chances and the only goal.  Also, Mason looked pretty good, and could not be faulted on any goal (though I do wonder if he could've done better directing the rebounds on the initial shot before the Leafs put in the rebounds for their 1st and 3rd goals).  Overall, lots of pressure from the Flyers the first 30 minutes.

Now the bad, and unfortunately none of this is new.  For all the pressure the Flyers were sustaining, only one goal.  Now Bernier played an excellent game for the Leafs, no doubt about that, but the Flyers also didn't really break down the defense.  They just had better legs at the start against a team that played an emotional game last night.  Of course, the Flyers have never been able to sustain that type of control for 60 minutes.  Once that push faded, the Flyers chances and puck possession really dried up.  And once ahead in the 3rd, the Leafs completely smothered the Flyers with vastly superior puck support and control.  The result at the end of the day was the Flyers being outscored 2-0 at 5-on-5 (the Flyers were 25th in the league in this category last year), and the Flyers came away with 0 points in a game that was tied after 2 periods (they were also awful in this category last year).

It's just one game, and the Leafs could be one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, but it is discouraging to see last season's problems immediately rear their head.

It Begins

I guess it's time to get off my ass and write something here, being that the season starts tonight.  Woohoo!

I'm still firmly in wait and see mode, but I will say that I see this year's Flyers team as a borderline playoff team.  I'd put the chances of them making the playoffs at a little below 50%.  This partly has to do with a horrific preseason, but moreso because I'm reading it together with last season.  Hardcore Mostly Flyers readers will recall this post of mine, and my opinions really haven't changed since this time.

I am very worried about the Flyers ability to score at 5-on-5.  The Flyers just don't attack with efficiency and purpose.  Whether it's coaching, motivation, or talent, the Flyers often look apathetic and aimless.

There are tangible reasons I can say to myself why it should be better this year.  Lecavalier has 61 even strength points over the last 2 years, while Briere only 42 during that time.  Hartnell is in the best shape of his life after being injured and unprepared last season.  Brayden Schenn (who shall hereafter be referred to as "Bo", mainly because I want to have the brothers Bo and Luke on the Flyers roster) and Cooter are a year older.

The defense, however, did not get much of a makeover, and is curiously still bloated with 8 defensemen on the roster.  I've been waiting for a trade on that count for months.  Something's got to give there.  Streit is a PP specialist, but he's been on the second PP unit thus far because the old first unit was so effective last year, and he may not get much more than 3rd pair even strength minutes.  This is a not a sea change for a defense that appeared ill-equipped last season.

While the goalie tandem of Mason and Emery should provide the most uncertainty (in an entertaining fashion, for better or worse), the million dollar question is Laviolette's leash.  Can he survive a slow start?  I won't beat a dead horse with my opinion on the matter, but I think Laviolette has more to prove than the players  That's never a good thing.

Okay, now I have all my fretting out of the way.  Let a fun season begin!

It's That Time Again

Hooray, training camp opens today.  I honestly don't have much to say at this point, and I'll just pretend the whole weird Cleary thing never happened.

Either way, at this point all I have is questions.

-Are Emery and Mason of giving the team quality goaltending all season?

-Will Schenn and Couturier get back on track after disappointing years?

-Will Hartnell bounce back closer to his 2011 form?

-Was the Streit signing a good idea, or is the defense as bad as last year?  Is there another trade to be made there?

-Can Voracek match his breakout season last year?

There are all close to 50/50 questions for me right now.  Arguments can be made both ways.  It's watch and wait time for me.

BONUS QUESTION:  Was this the most pointless post I've ever had on here?  (the answer is yes)

Hockey Books, Part 1

With a whole lot of nothing going on Flyerdom, and across the league for that matter, this summer I have been reading some hockey books.  I have a growing list of books to read, but I've made is through a few so far.

The Game - Ken Dryden
Dryden is not your typical player.  I mean the guy retired at age 31 on a run of 4 straight Vezina trophies and Stanley Cups to be a lawyer.  A lawyer!!  As a fellow lawyer, this seems a remarkably bad decision.  Either way, the result is that you get a reflective book on being a pro hockey player.  I had some trouble getting into the book, as it seems to presume some level of familiarity with the 70s Canadien teams and begins by discussing some Quebecois cultural issues.  Nevertheless, Dryden pontificates on many topics of the life, such as locker room dynamics, blue collar player backgrounds, comparing his career to childhood fantasies, how money affects expectations on players, etc.  It's just a very thoughtful book, and not at all like a typical athlete book.

J.R. - Jeremy Roenick
If The Game was not a typical player book, J.R. is very much so.  Generally a recounting of Roenick's career, it's a quick read.  It took me 2 days to read this book.  Roenick is not out to air dirty laundry, but rather give his side of the story and opinions.  And honestly, Roenick is kind of a dick (more so than I expected going in).  I also didn't totally buy his alibi on the Amonte slash incident, and his mentioning of the Olympic village vandalization by Team USA was simply dismissive.  The good thing is you get an unpolished impression of a player, which is interesting.

Full Spectrum - Jay Greenberg
A third type of hockey book discussed here, this is pure history/chronology.  A detailed history of the Flyers spanning 1967-1996 (their years in the Spectrum), this book is chock full of information and an amazing resource for hardcore Flyers fans.  I'm not sure I'd recommend it to other readers however, as it's long and relatively dry (whereas I read J.R. in 2 days, it was more like 3 weeks for Full Spectrum).  I personally didn't find the backroom boardroom intrigue discussions in the book all that interesting, but reading the book as a whole you really can track the development of the team, the players, the coaches, the management...  At times I felt I should be taking notes and outlining the key points of each season.  I certainly know a lot more about that Flyers from pre-1994, before which I was too young to understand.


My to-read list has ballooned and I've read a few non-hockey books in the meantime, but soon I hope to read Journeyman by Sean Pronger, The Final Call by Kerry Fraser, Jonesy by Keith Jones, and Wayne Gretzky's Ghost by Roy MacGregor as well.  I'll post thoughts on those when I get to them.

Do the Flyers Regret Signing Streit?

The question of the day is, with Lecavalier in the fold, do the Flyers regret their early move to add Streit?

The Flyers have said they did not expect Lecavalier to be bought out, and signing him was a move of opportunity.  Surely when the Flyers made the move to acquire Streit they had an offseason plan laid out that did not include freely picking up a prominent center for $4.5m.  However, had the Flyers known they could add Lecavalier, I suspect they would not have added Streit.

Clearly, the Flyers are trying to move a defensemen now due to lack of cap space.  Coburn could fetch a decent return, but I'm not too keen on the idea of subtracting a top-4 defensemen.  Meszaros, coming off a poor injury-riddled season and a UFA to-be, has little to nil trade value.  It feels like the Flyers are scrambling a bit, basically because they are.

I believe that, with Lecavalier, the Flyers are more willing to move Schenn or Couturier.  Those two had a disappointing season last year as the Flyers second line struggled, but the Flyers had no choice but to rely on those guys on the 2nd and 3rd line and hope for improvement from them.  Therefore, the option of trading them was particularly unappealing for the Flyers.  Now the second line has received a substantial shot in the arm, so while that doesn't degrade the trade value of Schenn or Cooter, they are not as critical to the upcoming season.

Accounting for Lecavalier before making any moves on defense, the Flyers could've made a move for a younger, better all-around defensemen than Streit.  Something like Schenn+Mesz+Read/picks for Yandle?  Or even something better for Pietrangelo?  In such a case, there would be no more talk of trading Coburn, and a second pair of Yandle/Coburn looks much more formidable than a potential pair of Streit/Grossmann.

Of course the Flyers could still make such a trade, but they are awfully tight to the cap to be paying Streit $5.25m to get 3rd pair minutes.

Jumping out in front of the market for an early move is a go-to play for Holmgren (Hartnell/Timonen, Bryzgalov, even re-signing Leighton), but by not letting events unfold and fully capitalizing on opportunities as they come, the Flyers make a different kind of risk.

Never a Dull Moment

I've said it before, but being a Flyers fan is just fun sometimes.  Whenever anyone of note becomes available, the Flyers are sniffing around.  Maybe always chasing the big move, the short term fix, has hampered the Flyers ability to win a cup.

Regardless of whether this is true, the Flyers are consistently one of the best teams in the NHL, and made deep cup runs in 95, 97, 2000, 2004 and 2010.  On top of that, there's always something to talk about, and rarely a forgettable season.

Tonight's signing of Lecavalier is a show-stopper and continues the tradition.

Now first, it's important to realize Lecavalier's days as a superstar are behind him.  Since his days as the #1 pick in 98, when then-TB owner naively labelled him the Michael Jordan of hockey, there's always been a superstar aura around him.  Truthfully, he only performed at that level for a brief period of time, and TB signed him up to contract with a cap hit of $7.7m/season under that spell.  Now 33, he hasn't hit 30 goals in 5 seasons.

With all the wonderful weirdness of this offseason and the compliance buyouts, the Flyers can look at him purely as a second line center.  While adding a big name forward seemed low on the priority list for the Flyers, a big issue with last season's team that no one talks about was terrible secondary scoring (meanwhile, the goaltending that everyone talks about was actually fine).  The team put a heavy burden on Couturier and Schenn to develop quickly into scoring roles, and it didn't happen last season.  This move does NOT mean they are giving up on either of them, but it does relieve that burden.  Additionally, the Flyers wanted to get bigger up front, and Lecavalier is 6'4".

Lecavalier's contract is reported to be at $4.5x5.  This is decent cap hit.  It's not without risks, going to his 38th birthday for a player who will decline over the life of deal, but consider the comparables of contending teams' second line centers.  Boston is paying Krejci $5.25m for his 33 points last year.  LA is paying Carter $5.27m for his 33 points.  Pittsburgh is paying Crosby and Malkin each ~$9m.  Lecavalier's 32 points at $4.25m looks pretty good.

Nor does this signing put the Flyers in an onerous cap position.  With some simple moves, the Flyers current cap picture looks like this:

The Flyers could easily sign a platoon goalie and put that lineup out there.

More likely some more tweaking will be done to this lineup and a defensemen will go.  The Flyers could either move Meszaros in what will basically be a salary dump, or they could try for a significant return for Coburn (and even now have the freedom throw in Schenn or Couturier now that Lecavalier is on board and Laughton is coming up).

Presuming the simpler transaction of dumping Meszaros, and running with some rumors about potential signings, the Flyers opening day lineup could very well look like this:

That lineup is clearly better than last year's team, and quite honestly better than I thought the Flyers could put together this offseason while being comfortably under the cap (although the defense is still underwhelming).  Either way, next season would be a lot of fun.

Bryz a Free Bird

So two days ago, catching many off-guard, the Flyers announced that they would buy-out Bryzgalov.  Much speculated but never certain, the Flyers decided to plow ahead.

My read was that the Flyers wanted to buy out Bryz, but would not do so this offseason until they had an alternative locked up.  Even if they want to give Mason significant playing time, they still need another goalie, and Bryz is still a decent quality goalie.

No need to beat dead horses, but Bryzgalov is coming off a decent season from a purely performance standpoint.  The problem is his contract and his attitude.  He has not been a difference maker, and no one wants to tolerate that circus for 7 more years of decent-but-not-great goaltending.

Then when you see quotes as in this piece, Bryzgalov seemed to be accelerating his own departure.  He obviously hates the media here (with some justification), and he just doesn't want to fight the fight anymore to succeed here in a system of play that does not complement his skills well.  All in all, even though I have been somewhat of a Bryz apologist, and recently wrote about the benefits of buying him out next summer, this is not a bad solution.

I also might feel slightly bad for Bryz, getting run out of town and the Flyers making the biggest buyout in NHL history to rid themselves of him, but consider he will effectively be paid $40m for 2 seasons by the Flyers.  Even if he never plays in the NHL again, worse things could happen to someone.

Another factor I did not consider previously was the effect of carrying Bryz this season on the Flyers "tagging space".  The issue there is that a team cannot exceed the present season's salary cap with contracts committed to the following year.  If Bryz was still on the team, his cap hit would be "tagged" to next season's payroll, taking up space the Flyers might otherwise wish to allocate to new deals for Giroux, Couturier and Schenn.  As it stands now, with Mesz and Timonen likely leaving, Bryz and Briere bought out, the Flyers only have $39m committed to the 2014-15 season, and thus have plenty of space to get those guys resigned during this coming season and protect themselves from RFA offer complications.

Goalie Alternatives

Now that the Flyers have a spot to fill, the fun part is evaluating replacement candidates.  The presumption I will make for this analysis is the Flyers want to bring him above simple backup quality, and who will be capable of carrying the load if Mason sputters.

Luongo - The biggest name, first it needs to be said that trading for Luongo is a terrible idea.  He has 9 seasons left at a cap hit of $5.33m.  Giving up assets for the privilege of that contract is insane.  If however the Canucks buy him out (which they clearly don't want to do, but may have no other choice), the Flyers may look into an opportunistic signing.  If you could sign him for a relatively cheap and short contract (say $8m over 2 years), that could really pay off.

Nabokov - This name always seems to come up on my blog.  It appears he will not resign with the Islanders.  Now 37, he had a pretty good season for the Isles but a disappointing playoffs.  A good option, if available for cheap.

Miller - Soon to be 33, a few seasons ago he seemed like a golden boy.  I think his play slipped last season, and he appears to have worn out his welcome speaking his mind in Buffalo.  He's got a big cap hit next season, and then will be a free agent.  If I were the Flyers, I would not trade anything of value for another outspoken goalie who will be a free agent soon.

Emery - Another name that has been on this blog several times before.  A free agent who did not play in the playoffs for the champion Hawks, a regular season line of 17-1, .922% and 3 SOs seems to confirm he is back from his injury concerns.  Again, if cheap and brief, he might be a good signing and a good partner with Mason to compete for job.

Thomas - I'm not 100% sure what his contract status his after sitting out last season, but presuming he is a free agent, and one year deal for him would certainly be interesting.  Now 39, he is only 2 years removed from a historic season, winning the Vezina, Conn Smythe and Stanley Cup.  With he and Mason, the Flyers would certainly have a lot of athleticism in the crease.

Smith - He had a phenomenal season 2 years ago, but that appears to be an anomaly.  Also, we've seen that a goalie succeeding on Phoenix may not mesh well under Laviolette's system.  Pass.

Clearly the common theme among the candidates is that Flyers should be opportunistic, and not commit too many resources to the goaltending situation this offseason.  Let Mason or someone else win the job, rather than chasing a white whale.

Rumor Commentary

After what has been a pretty depressing season, about which I saw little to post, it's fun to have things to wildly speculate upon!  No team does offseason crazy like the Flyers.  Maybe it hurts them in the long run, but they always put a competitive team on the ice and the moments of madness always keep it exciting for the fans.

Anyway, there's been a bunch of rumors popping up this week, and here's just a few comments.

#1 - Bryzgalov's agent says Holmgren told him Bryz won't be bought out this offseason.  Holmgren says that's BS.

I've already written a little about a Bryzgalov buyout.  I think the question is when, not if.  I previously laid out the case for doing it next summer.  Since then, I've warmed to certain scenarios for a buyout this summer.  Either way, Holmgren told Jeff Carter's agent he wouldn't be traded, and then traded him a week later.  Assuming Holmgren even gave Bryz's agent any assurances, I wouldn't put much stock in them.  I would ignore this item and say a Bryz buyout this summer is very much on the table.

#2 - The Flyers are a front runner to trade for Jonathan Bernier; possible packages include Matt Read, or Couturier+11th pick.

Bernier is a 24 year old goalie.  He was the first goalie taken in the 2006 draft, at 11 overall.  Thus far, he's been stuck behind Quick in LA.  Relatively small for a modern NHL goalie, he's very quick.  He's excelled at the AHL level, has a .912% in 62 NHL appearances, and many scouts think he's ready to try for a #1 NHL job.

He's also a RFA this year, and the Kings are tight against the cap  As a result, they are very vulnerable to an offer sheet and settling for meek draft pick compensation for losing him.  Now the Kings are aggressively trying to trade him in the next few weeks before that happens.

In a general sense, I kind of like the idea of the Flyers going into next season with Bernier and Mason, two goalies with unquestionable talent, and letting the best man win.  Neither is a sure thing after all.  The Flyers must, however, draw the line on how much they are willing to pay for him.

First, Bernier wants a chance to start.  I don't think there's many NHL teams that will trade for him and simply give him the #1 job, so an open competition with Mason might be the best he gets.  I don't think he'd be unhappy with a trade to Philly.

Second, let's throw out the package reported by Carchidi; Cooter and the 11th pick.  That is a terrible deal.

Third, the Read deal (or something like it) is reasonable.  Read is a quality player, and can play across a team's top 9.  Most likely, he's a 2/3 line wing in the NHL.  What makes him tradeable is, that while he still seems inexperienced and up-and-coming, he is 27 years old.  He's also a UFA after this season, and will be seeking a substantial raise from his current $900k deal.  I'm not sure the Flyers can accommodate that.  The problem is, the Flyers are already weak at forward, and there is no clear substitute to take his place.

Either way, the Flyers should not get sucked into a bidding war for Bernier.  If the deal is there, take it and buy out Bryz.  If not, walking away is just fine.

#3 - The Flyer are talking trade for Bobby Ryan, at a cost of Coburn and 11 pick

After some thought, I don't think this is a very good deal as presented.  It's tempting for Flyers fans to part with Coburn, as he is coming off a poor season that ended in an injury, and he carries a significant cap hit of $4.5.  What we have to remember is that he plays big minutes for the Flyers, and can flourish in the right situation.

With his size and skating, it is tempting to ask Coburn to do a lot, and I think that's where it went wrong for him this season.  He's not Matt Carle, and his slapshot looks good, but is horrendously inaccurate.  I could see him playing well with Streit though, in a simplified role.  Let Streit attack and Coburn be the anchor of the pair.  We might get to see the Coburn that looked so promising playing with Timonen a few years ago.

Furthermore, this is supposed to be a very good draft.  It seems a slam dunk for the Flyers to take a good young defensemen with the 11 pick, which is unusually high for the Flyers, but Flyers fans shouldn't count on that either given their track record of taking the best player available (which they usually deem to be a forward).  Still, the reality is that with or without Ryan, the Flyers are not cup contenders next season.  Yes, they need help at forward, but this is not the way to do it.

Streit Agrees to Deal

Yesterday it was widely reported that the Flyers have a deal with Mark Streit for 4x$5.25m.  Holmgren has denied there is any deal to report, but that is presumably because until a trade or buyout occurs, the Flyers don't have the cap space.

Is this a good deal?

Well, I'll start the analysis from this point: my hope for the offseason was to somehow parlay Matt Read into Keith Yandle.  Yandle is an elite puck carrying defensemen.  Great on the PP, skates all over the place, but not necessarily a stalwart defensively.  The last two seasons, he plays about 22 minutes a night in Phoenix and has scored 21 goals and 52 assists to put him among the highest scoring defensemen in the league.  He is 26 years old and has 3 years left at $5.25m.

Streit has a very similar scouting report.  Skates well, carries the puck well, and is good on the PP.  Also a bit weak defensively.  The last 2 season he has played about 23 minutes a night for the Isles, and has scored 13 goals and 61 assists.  He is 35 years old and apparently signed to an identical cap hit.

All things being equal, Yandle would be the preferred option.  He is a little bigger and 9 years younger.  Streit contract will be an "over-35" contract, meaning even if he retires his cap hit stays on the books.  Otherwise, very similar players.

Of course all things are not equal, and Yandle has a high trade cost; Matt Read alone would not be enough to acquire him.  Acquiring Yandle would probably require sacrificing an asset the Flyers really don't want to give up.

So maybe we should feel okay that the Flyers acquired the skillset they needed with no impact to their roster.

Here's a lineup projection presuming Pronger LTIR and Briere buyout:

That lineup needs a top-9 forward, and they don't have much money left to sign one (let's not forget a lack of second line scoring was a major problem last year).  I would not be surprised if the Flyers made significant adjustments to this lineup including buying out Bryz, and trading Read and Mesz to give Gustafsson a top-6 spot.  I'll leave that question for another post though.

Bobrovsky Takes the Vezina

I've already written a bit about Bob's huge season, and the hand-wringing amongst Flyers fans about where the Flyers blew it.  Now his Vezina victory is official, and I'm still serene about the whole thing.

Why am I so serene about it?  Basically because he won it on two months of hot play, and two months don't change everything.  What I wrote previously was a basically a subjective history--here are actual stats of season performances.

At the end of February this season, Bob was 3-6-3, .899%, and 0 SOs.  Nothing any Flyer fan would think twice about.  Over the next two months, Bob caught fire and would go 18-5-3, .946% and 4 SOs.  Thus he won the Vezina in a 4 month season with a cumulative stat line of 21-11-6,  .932%.  History has shown us however, that the first 4 months of the season usually go very well for Bobrovsky, and then the wheels come off.

First, you might notice a general pattern to Bobrovsky's seasons in this chart;

                                    2010 w/Flyers            2011 w/Flyers         2012 w/ Jackets

You can begin to see a pattern there of peaking around month 4 of the season, then sagging thereafter.  Moreover, in all 3 seasons, his month 4 performance is extremely similar.  That chart is still a little convoluted though.  Strip away more of the noise, and just break it up at the 4 month mark of the season.  The dichotomy becomes much more clear;

The second half of the season has been much more challenging for Bobrovsky thus far in his career, and it's probably not a coincidence that his first big season has come in a year where there was no second half.  What he did in the first 4 months of 2012 is better than his first two years with the Flyers, but not drastically so.

Is it possible that he wouldn't have had a bad second half, and he has simply developed his game?  Of course.  Is this a jaded fan rationalization?  Probably.  But I still don't have too many regrets over the situation.

Bryz buyout? But when?

Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie8 JunIt's not carved in stone, but in spite of what has been said in past, I expect PHI is likely to use compliance buyout on Ilya Bryzgalov. 

Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie8 JunAlso, PHI is in market for D and may be willing to move one of their young centres - B Schenn or Couturier - for the right deal.

And with that, a whole new round of discussion began.

I've already written that a Briere buyout is likely, but I have not written anything about use of the second buyout. I think most fans want to see it used on Bryzgalov, which may be a good idea.

Bryzgalov has 7 years left at $5.66 cap hit. At this point, it's not the cap hit that's the problem, it's the contract length. That is the 9th biggest cap hit among NHL goalies, and very close to the new contracts signed by Quick and Howard. Bryz hasn't been great, but he hasn't been terrible either, and paying an experienced goalie that number isn't unreasonable. If he had a year or two left at that number, you just let him play it out.

The problem is, I don't think the Flyers want to hitch their wagon to him for the next 7 years. He hasn't been a difference maker, has problems with the local media, and perhaps his teammates. Also, no one will take that contract in a trade, leaving a buyout the only option.

(For the purposes of this post, I am going to assume the Flyers have the financial means and will to pay Bryz to go away, which would be about $1.5m/year for about a dozen years)

If the Flyers decide to buy him out, they need another goalie. Handing Mason the starting job right now would be foolish.

As far UFAs go, this offseason Nik Backstrom, Evgeni Nabokov, Mike Smith, Ray Emery and Tim Thomas are available. Next offseason, potential options might be Lundqvist, Miller, Hiller, Halak, Vokoun and Crawford. Guys like Vokoun, Nabokov, Backstrom and Thomas are old and might be available at a reasonable cap hit on a short term deal. Lundqvist and Crawford could cost a mint (if even available).

The other option is a trade. There's already some talk about the Flyers' interest in Bernier in LA. My biggest concern with that route is that the Flyers don't have too many tradeable assets, and an asset used acquiring a goalie cannot be used to acquire a defensemen. Therefore I'm not crazy about the idea of trading Read to LA, as has been floated.

I think the Flyers should give Mason a full season to see how much resources they should devote in terms of cap space and trade assets to solidify the goalie situation. if he stinks, then you do what you gotta do, but if he seizes the job, problem solved. Therefore I lean towards buying out Bryzgalov next offseason, not this offseason.

The only wrinkle to that is the Flyers want to try Nabokov short term (who is is still an above average goalie), or roll the dice with Thomas or Emery. (Hey, this discussion of Emery (1, 2) and Nabokov sounds familiar...).

So my bottom line is, I'd probably buy out Bryz next summer, but not this one.

Next up, McKenzie's second tweet....

Briere and the Likely Buyout

There is lots of talk about Danny Briere being bought out.  Unfortunately, much of it is wasted breath because people don't really understand the finer points of the rules.  The bottom line;

-Every NHL team is allowed two "compliance" buyouts to save cap room.  These buyouts may be made this offseason or next.

-If bought out, the player will receive 2/3rds of the remaining contract value paid out over twice the life of the contract.

-Regarding Briere specifically, he is owed $3m this year and $2m next.  Thus if he is bought out, the Flyers would be paying him ~$3.3m total, or ~$825k/year for the next 4 years (which would not count against the cap).

-If the Flyers don't buy out Briere, he will count as $6.5m against the cap.

-If the Flyers buy out Briere, he will become a free agent, and the Flyers will be ineligible to sign him.

-Briere has a no-movement clause, and thus could veto any trade.

Briere has been very clear; he expects to be bought out, but would prefer to stay.  Hockey-wise, Briere has been amazing in the playoffs, but poor in the regular season the last two seasons.  Undersized and 35 years old, that's probably not going to improve.  That is not worth ~10% of the team's cap space, and the Flyers could easily eat $3 million on their budget.

It also seems a longshot that Briere would accept a trade.  For one, purely monetarily, as long as Briere could find a contract for more than $1.675m/year for 2 years he comes out ahead when you combine the new contract value with the buyout payments he is due.  Second, Briere is a single dad with a few sons and probably would want to stay local.  He won't want to get shipped across the country, for instance.

The only scenario I see other than a buyout is trade to the Islanders.  The Islanders are just up the road from south Jersey, and given their puny payroll and the cap floor they must reach (or pay a penalty), they'd prefer to have Briere at a $6.5m cap hit rather than a $1.675m cap hit.  Are they actually interested in Briere?  I have no idea.

Long story short, expect a buyout, though a trade is a slim possibility.


**I have also heard some possible shenanigans involving trading players, and then having another team perform the buyout.  By doing so, a team would effectively get more than 2 buyouts, or be eligible to sign the bought out player.  I'm assuming no such tomfoolery will be had.

Get Your Story Straight

This week, Bobrovsky was named as a finalist for the Vezina trophy.  Many believe him to be the favorite.  Why can't the Flyers get young goalies like this?

Actually, it's basically time to cue the hand-wringing of Flyers fans and writers.  The predictable reactions are "I knew we shouldn't have traded him!", or "the Flyers are a joke of an organization!"  Hand-wringing aside, what really happened?

The thing about having a blog like this is that there's no hiding your past statements.  Indeed, most of my reason for writing this blog is just to get my own story straight.  Let's recap events:

2010-11 season - The Flyers sign Bobrovsky, and by most accounts he is destined for the AHL.  Instead he impresses in the preseason and Leighton is awful, and he becomes the starter.  He has the job heading down the stretch run, but after a shocking run of results, he gets yanked for good in the playoffs.  At the time, I passionately argued that he was not ready to lead a winning team.  I do not regret a word of that.

2011 offseason - Given the absolute goaltending debacle of the playoffs (using 3 goalies, pulling your starter 5 TIMES in 11 games), the Flyers needed to make a move in net.  I argued then, and still believe now, it would've been insane to give Bobrovsky the keys the team at the time.  My personal plan was to acquire Nabokov on a short term contract, giving the team a proven #1 and allowing Bobrovsky to develop as the backup.  (Or alternatively, sniff around and try to lowball Vokoun, who in fact signed for very little with Washington).  Instead, the Flyers went big and acquired Bryzgalov.  With Bryz in the fold on a 9-year deal, I would've traded Bobrovsky right then because I didn't see a future for him here anymore.

2011-2012 season - Bryzgalov had a rough season, and Bobrovsky had a few stretches as starter.  He didn't run with it, and ended the season with a significantly worse stat line than Bryz.  Either way, Bryz wasn't going anywhere, and I again thought they should trade Bobrovsky since he had no future here.

2012 offseason -  Ultimately, the Flyers traded him for a 2nd and two 4th round picks, which was more than I thought he would fetch as his trade value declined after his mediocre sophomore year.  At the time, I remarked there was no way the Flyers would get a fairly high first round pick for him, as the Avs gave up for Varlamov in the 2011 offseason.  He reminded me of Nittymaki, who was capable of enticing play at times (MVP of 2006 Winter Olympics), but never proved he could be a long term #1 option.

2013 strike season - Well, we know what happened here.

So what's my story?  My story is that no-way no-how was Bob ready to be the #1 after the 2011 playoff debacle.  I thought the Flyers should sign a veteran goalie to be the #1 and give Bob time as backup for another year or two.  Instead, we got Bryzgalov and a 9 year deal.  After that happened, I didn't see a future as a Flyer for him.

In the last few days, Frank Seravalli has tweeted that the Avs wanted Bob MORE than they wanted Varlamov in summer 2011.  I find that a little hard to believe, but if the Avs did offer their 2012 first round pick for Bob, the Flyers were fools not to take it with Bryz already signed long term.

Either way, the Flyers traded him the following offseason for a decent but not overwhelming return.  I did not expect this season from him, and it will be interesting to see how he performs next year in a full length season as the undisputed #1.

I'm sticking to my story that once Bryz was signed, Bob's fate as a Flyers was sealed.  This very well may turn out to be a big mistake long term, but I will call bullshit on people who cry "we should've given him the job in summer 2011 and rode it out!"

Playoff Picks

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Penguins (72) v. Islanders (55)

The Isles have some spunk, and I think they could beat most teams in the East, but they draw Pittsburgh.  Too bad for them.  Pens in 6.


Canadiens (63) v. Senators (56)

I’m just not a believer in this Canadiens team this year, and Price doesn’t look like himself.  I think Ottawa guts it out. Sens in 6.

Capitals (57) v. Rangers (56)

Have the Capitals recaptured their mojo of a few years past, when they were perennial East favorites?  I’m not sure, but they’re playing well enough to knock off the Rangers who never really got it going this season.  Caps in 7.

Bruins (62) v. Leafs (57)

 The Bruins lost in the first round last year, and are probably the coldest team entering the playoffs.  The Leafs are a surprise this year and will not be bullied by the Bruins.  Looks like a 7 game series to me.  Bruins in 7.



WESTERN CONFERENCE

Blackhawks (77) v. Wild (55)

 The Blackhawks were the best team in the regular season.  The Wild are objectively the weakest team in the playoffs.  We have a mismatch.  Hawks in 4.


Ducks (66) v. Wings (56)

 Are the Red Wings as good as they appeared at the end of the season?  Are the Ducks as good as their season-long performance suggests?  I’ll go with the sustained excellence and depth.  Ducks in 7.


Canucks (59) v. Sharks (57)

 I don’t like either of these team’s chances for a playoff run.  Sharks will dominate on faceoffs, and won’t need a lot of goals to win in what will likely be a sleepy series.  Sharks in 6.


Blues (60) v. Kings (59)

This looks like it might be the best first round series.  The Blues are still an up-and-coming team, don’t give up many shots, and have good skaters on defense.  The Kings are the defending champs and can be physically intimidating.  I’ll take the surging Blues and their mobile defense over the Kings with Quick in pedestrian form.  Blues in 7.

Draft Thoughts Follow-up

Just as a brief follow-up to my post on drafting Couturier over Hamilton in 2011, I was struck by an article on ESPN today.  Now the article is concerned with NFL drafting, so it's only loosely analogous, but there's one passage that stood out to me:

"...as a collective entity, the league does an acceptable job of putting guys in buckets.
When it comes to valuing draftees at the same position who are clumped together in a similar tier, I'm skeptical. I wonder whether the margin of error in analyzing those players is larger than any advantage a particular franchise has in scouting talent."
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9202430/bill-barnwell-inconsistency-nfl-draft

It's also worth considering that NFL drafts are for guys in their early 20s for very specialized roles.  If anything, scouting NFL draft picks should be much easier than NHL teams drafting 18-year olds.

I guess I just come back to the question of with what degree of confidence can any NHL team say two very closely ranked prospects is better than another?  Could the Flyers really conclude that Couturier is simply a better prospect, so forget about position?

I can't really slag on the Flyers too much, as they have generally done an excellent job with their first round picks, which are generally in the latter portions of the round.  But by trading away so many picks, and then inordinately drafting centers with the picks they do keep, clearly the Flyers have made their own bed with an empty cupboard of defensemen.

Draft Do-Over?

Regardless of where the Flyers end up picking in this draft, there's always the question of drafting to need.  Most accepted is the theory of drafting the best player available, regardless of position.  It would be pretty stupid to draft to fill a particular need of an NHL roster, simply because most draft picks take years to mature into NHL contributors.  Who knows what your specific needs will be in 5 years?  Whether or not there may be some logic in drafting for an organizational need, however, after identifying lack of depth in a certain area, isn't necessarily so stupid.

The Flyers in fact may have been much better served doing so.

Think back 2 years ago, when the Flyers obtained the Blue Jackets' #8 overall pick, a rare high pick for the Flyers.  At the time, I wrote that the Flyers would presumably look for a defensemen there.  As the draft unfolded, the chips appeared to fall perfectly for the Flyers.  As expected, Adam Larsson was the #1 defensemen available and was quickly snatched up.  After the surprise choice of Scheifele by the Jets though, #2 defensemen Dougie Hamilton was, somewhat surprisingly, still on the board when the Flyers picked.  Easy choice, right?

Not so fast, as Sean Couturier was unexpectedly still available as well.  His draft stock had fallen somewhat, as several months prior he was considered a potential #1 overall.  I think when all is said and done, the Flyers simply thought Couturier was a better player so they drafted him, despite the organization being deep at center with no high-end defensive prospects to speak of.

Two years later, things haven't changed much.  The Flyers are still well-stocked at center for now and the future with Giroux, Briere, Schenn, Couturier, Laughton and Cousins, but they are absolutely screaming for high-end (preferably puck-moving) defensive prospects.  This is not knock on Couturier at all, as I have said repeatedly I think he is the Flyers best prospect since Lindros.  He's had some very tough stretches this season, but I think he will bounce back and likely be a second-line center than Schenn, honestly (better defensively, bigger, and similar offensive potential based on what I'm seeing).

The only thing that hurts is what they could've had in Hamilton.  Since the draft, Hamilton won Canadien Junior defensemen of the year last year, and this year has become a key member of the cup contending Bruins.  He's getting PP time, taking shifts with Chara, has 15 points in 40 games, and overall playing 16-18 minutes a night.  He's also 6'5", has a right-handed shot, and clearly projects as a top pairing guy in the long run.  In other words, EXACTLY what the Flyers organization needs.

Because of the situation described above, the Flyer may trade Couturier this offseason.  He's their most valuable asset, and it may make sense to slot Schenn in at #2 center and Laughton at #3 (assuming he keeps impressing), leaving Couturier with no clear spot.  Oh, and the Flyers now have more of a need than ever for a long term puck-moving solution on defense.  If the Flyers want to address this problem, Couturier is the best tool to do so.  Or they could've just drafted differently 2 years ago and not have to play the fickle trade market....

Fire Laviolette?

And the survey says....yes.  I didn't want to disappoint my readership and leave this questing hanging, and moreover if he's going to get fired during this season, it might happen now that the Flyers have several days off.  Yes, I know Holmgren has recently given Laviolette the dreaded vote of confidence, but I don't think that's worth much.

Things with the Flyers are disappointing enough that most fans are pointing the finger at Laviolette.  Flyers fans are not a patient lot, but I think it makes sense this time around.

-For one, it's that time.  The average NHL coach lasts less than 3 seasons.  They are hired to be fired, and everyone knows this.  Laviolette is approaching 250 games coached with the Flyers, which is about how long his predecessors in Philadelphia lasted.

More to the point though, Laviolette is a yeller, and it seems he has lost "the room."  His uptempo attacking system demands a lot of the players, and the Flyers have been unable to consistently provide that effort.  Too often, the Flyers put in a great 10 minutes and quit until Laviolette screams at them.  It's like kids who act out as soon as their parents give them any breathing room.  It's not sustaining, and that lack of sustainability may be contributing to the Flyers awful 1-6 record when tied after 2 periods.

Also, consider Laviolette's previous jobs.  In his first season in Long Island he led them to their first playoff appearance in several seasons, but only lasted one more year after that.  In Carolina, in his first full season in charge they finished first in their division and won the cup.  2.5 mediocre years followed and he was fired.  Philadelphia continues the pattern, reaching the finals after taking over midseason, and he followed that up with a first place finish the next regular season.  The pattern seems clear; cracking success early, followed by diminishing returns thereafter.  It probably isn't wise to expect a revival under Laviolette next year.

-Second, his system is not working with this group of players.  The Flyers sorely lack puck carriers on the back end, and are not the fastest most skillful lot in general.  The makeover to the defense has actually involved Carle leaving, and big slow physical players like Schenn and Grossmann arriving.  Laviolette's system requires constant pressing, and these guys are not equipped to do so.

This system is not wide-open offense, but there are a few things that shouldn't happen when successfully instituted;
-A team that successfully presses shouldn't capitulate when falling down 1-0.  Laviolette teams are usually top 10 in this category.  The Flyers are currently 23rd.
-A team that successfully presses should get a fair amount of 5-on-5 goals.  Successful Laviolette teams are often top 5 in this category.  The Flyers are currently 22nd.


None of this is to say that the Flyers would be a juggernaut with a different coach.  They're better than this though, and I think it's time to move on.

State of the Flyers

As I see it, there are two burning questions for the Flyers at the moment.  One, should Laviolette be fired?  Two, should Couturier be traded?  The question of if the Flyers should trade to bolster this year's playoff run is no longer a reasonable question; the answer is an emphatic no.

Before getting to those burning questions, let's review the state of the Flyers through a few illustrative statistics.

-The Flyers power play is 6th overall.  After a terrible start to the season, the Flyers power play is now terrific, and operates near 30% at home.  Count this as one problem solved.

-Similarly, the penalty kill has rebounded to 11th in the league, and is a quality unit.  The problem is, the Flyers have been shorthanded 114 times, worst in the league.

-The Flyers collapse when they fall behind.  When the opponent scores first, the Flyers only win 20% of the time, 25th in the league.  When trailing after 2 periods, the Flyers are 1-10 (9.1%), 27th in the league.  Most shockingly, the Flyers are 0-10 when trailing after the first period!

-Unfortunately, I cannot find stats for when teams are tied after 2 periods.  I suspect the Flyers would be at the bottom of the league in points earned in such situations.

-The Flyers are a bad 5-on-5 team, with a goal differential of .8.  That is also 25th in the league. More concerning than absolute goal difference however, is that the Flyers are 22nd in 5-on-5 goal scoring.  An uptempo attacking team should be scoring goals, win or lose.

-I would not have guessed it, but the Flyers do a pretty good job when leading after 2 periods, winning 91.7% of the time.  This is 6th in the league.

-The Flyers actually block a lot of shots; 4th in the league.

-The Flyers are a solid 8-4-1 at home, but are 4-11-0 on the road.

So with that in mind, I will follow with a post on Laviolette this weekend.

Reality Setting In

So I've been saying it for over a month, but this is not a good hockey team.  Apparently it took many fans and media this long to come to this conclusion, but now panic and hand-wringing abounds.

The Flyers' "rivalry" week against top eastern teams has been a decisive failure.  The Flyers enjoyed first period leads of 2-1 and 4-1 respectively against the Rangers and Penguins, but then were outscored 7-0 in the remainders of those games.  Against the Bruins, the Flyers never got off the mark and took a meek 3-0 loss.

Many things are going wrong.  The players appear to have given up on Laviolette.  Bryzgalov has not been sharp.  Couturier's confidence is extremely low.  Overall frustration grows.  While I will look at some of these issues in more detail in upcoming posts, suffice it to say things are looking quite bleak.

If there's any question as to how this season will progress, consider these cold hard numbers.

--The last few years, it has taken approximately 1.12 points per game to earn a playoff spot in the east.  In this shortened 48 game season, that equals 53/54 points.

--The Flyers currently have 23 points in 26 games.  This equals .88 points per game, which puts the Flyers 12th out 15 teams in the East.

--To reach 53 points, the Flyers must earn 30 points in their final 22 games, or 1.36 points per game.  This is equivalent to Pittsburgh's current record, 3rd best in the East.

Does anyone think this team is capable of performing as the third best team in the east the remainder of the season?  I didn't think so.  This team is not making the playoffs.

What's Hot, What's Not

Today I'm going to pretend I'm a 90s supermarket tabloid, and quickly cover many subjects in a peurile hot list.

What's Hot:  Jake Voracek.  Everyone has taken note of his recent points explosion and NHL player of the week award, though he's been the Flyers best player for a few weeks now.  His season reminds me of Hartnell last year; started out pretty rough (0 goals and 2 assists in his first 7 games) and fans called him out before having a torrid stretch for a few games.  Hartnell played that out into a full season of excellence scoring at the rate of a goal every other game the rest of the season.  Similarly, Voracek showed up for the season overweight, and started out with only 3 points in 8 games, but has 18 points in 13 games since.  Voracek has always been a hardworker on the ice during games, but I think there was some perception in Columbus that his off-ice habits weren't the best.  Either way, hopefully this is a true career turning point and Voracek becomes a point a game player, which I wasn't sure would ever happen.

What's Not:  Ilya Bryzgalov.  He started out great, but has been slowly but steadily slipping.  He's played an absurd amount of games, and his game is showing cracks.  He's fighting in there, but he's increasingly sloppy in angles and is leaking stoppable goals.  Too bad the Flyers back-ups don't offer much relief.

What's Hot:  The Flyers first PP unit.  This unit is moving the puck with confidence and scoring goals.  When the Flyers win, it's usually because this unit has come up with key goals.

What's Not:  The Flyers second PP unit.  These guys are still pretty hopeless.

What's Hot:  Brayden Schenn.  I won't say he's been tearing it up with irresistible play, but his 15 points in 14 February games almost matches his 18 for the entirety of last season.  That's progress.

What's Not:  Trading for veterans or rentals.  I've said it before and I'll say it again, the Flyers this year are not a great team, and they are not a player away from being a cup contender.  This doesn't rule out all trades, but trading youth and picks for veteran rentals is not wise.  Holmgren, apparently, can't help himself from trading away draft picks, and he re-acquired Simon Gagne yesterday for a 4th round pick (a 3rd rounder if Flyers make the playoffs, which I'm sure Holmgren is planning to do).  Mind you, Gagne is a pretty old and fragile 33, only playing 34 games for the Kings last year and has been a healthy scratch their last 4 games.  He's still got speed and smarts, but he doesn't go to scoring areas anymore.  I suspect the Flyers will put him on the 2nd PP unit mentioned above and let him try to snipe a few though.


The trade winds are blowing around the Flyers for sure.  I just hope Homer doesn't lose his head and trade for a rental.  If it's a restructuring trade for a young defensemen, I would give up some quality as it suits both long and short term needs.  If it's trading for an aging UFA to-be to squeeze a little more out of this year's squad, that is misguided.  Briere rumors have started, and that could make sense as he's not been a big regular season performer for the Flyers, but he has been absolutely money in the playoffs, and he's only owed $5 million in real dollars over the next two seasons.  That should interest other teams.  Trading Couturier on the hand (who I'm sure other teams will ask for) will give me shit-fits, although I'll allow an exception if it's for a young defensemen who projects as a top pair guy.

Until then, look for the Flyers to scrape out wins on the backs of Voracek, their PP and Bryzgalov.  If any one of those factors takes the night off, it's probably not going to be a good night for the Flyers.

Flyers Finding Their Niche

I have written that this year's Flyers really aren't all that good a team, and I haven't seen anything to make me change my mind.  They're not contenders, but they are finding their niche as a bubble playoff team.

After a pretty rough start, the Flyers took 7 of 8 points from a 4 game homestand.  The wins were hardly commanding victories, but they scrapped out the wins against other bubble teams.  They followed that up with a humbling loss in Toronto, before a gritty win in Winnipeg.

The lesson learned from this stretch is we've seen how the Flyers have to win games this year.  They don't have the firepower to outscore teams like last year; 4 and 5 goal performances will be rare.  Bryzgalov is playing excellent however, as he is tracking the puck very well, and really battling and recovering better.  The Flyers also are doing more to collapse around the net in ways they desperately needed to last year.

The Flyers can get some wins this year in this fashion, but it's all pretty fragile.  For one, this team is completely dependent on Bryzgalov (hard to believe we're saying that about Bryzgalov after last year, or the Flyers in general, well, ever).  Partially because Bryzgalov has been very good, and partially because the backup goalie situation is so lousy.

It's also fragile because of the youth up front.  Giroux is looking overwhelmed with Hartnell and Jagr out of the lineup.  Recently, Read, Voracek and Schenn have stepped up their play, but who knows how that will keep up.  It will be a struggle all season, but hopefully Hartsy and Mesz will be back relatively soon, which will help.

Speak of Jagr...

Jagr is one of many recently departed Flyers doing very well thus far.  Jagr has become a key piece on offense for Dallas, and is leading the team with 11 points in 13 games.  The Flyers are missing him this year more than I expected.  Also;

-Matt Carle is playing big minutes in TB (which shouldn't be surprising) and already has 2 goals.  The other key departure for the Flyers this year.

-JVR has 8 goals in 13 games, a pretty stark change from the 11 he scored in 43 for the Flyers last year.  Many of these have been of the tap-in variety, finishing off others' plays (he only has 2 assists), but there's nothing wrong with that.  He's playing well and with confidence, but there's no need for Flyers fans to panic about that trade at the moment.

-Similar to JVR, Jeff Carter has 6 goals (and only 1 assist) in 11 games for the offensively challenged Kings.

Put all this together, and you can see all the offense that has gone out the door from Philadelphia.  That kind of goal-hawking from JVR and Carter is certainly a missing ingredient from this year's Flyers roster.

But Don't Panic

The Flyers have obvious needs, which my man Bill Meltzer accurately describes and prioritizes; "1) a puck-moving defenseman who can play 20+ minutes per game, 2) a scoring winger who possesses both good size and a consistent willingness to work in the "greasy" areas of the ice (though I might go a little more towards high-end skill players who snipe, in the mold of Perry or Iginla mentioned below), 3) a backup goaltending upgrade in case of a long-term injury to Ilya Bryzgalov, 4) a fourth-line center who is strong on defensive zone face-offs." http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=49290#.UR0bGqWyD9l

Despite this, it DOES NOT make sense for the Flyers to go chasing down trades.  For one, they are not a contender this year, so trading more youth and picks is a bad idea.  The Flyers have very few high-end prospects, and are generally depleted of prospects outside the NHL from trading away so many picks under Holmgen.  Second, these are tough holes to fill, as evidenced by the Timonen contract signed last week.

Clearly the Flyers looked around and saw Timonen was their only option for a number 1 defensemen next year.  He is old, and isn't the defensemen he used to be, but the Flyers renewed him at a very high cap number (shockingly high at first glance) because they had no other choice.  After accepting that reality, my only regret is that they couldn't get Kimmo to resign for say $4.5m instead of 6.  $1.5m in cap space will make a difference if the Flyers pursue Iginla or Perry as free agents after this season...

The Flyers Are not a Good Team

Let's just get that out of the way.  The 2013 Flyers are not a good team.  They are ill equipped and disorganized, and those things don't spontaneously turn around or respond to a band-aid fix.  The question is, are they a mediocre team or a terrible team?

The Flyers split their games over the weekend, but neither game was all that pretty.  The Flyers loss to the Caps should be sobering--the Caps were 1-5-1 and generally a lifeless team, playing in the second night of back to back games, while the Flyers were coming off a 2 day break.  Somehow the Flyers got outplayed.  A win against Carolina followed, where a 5 goal outburst and 39 saves from Bryzgalov camouflaged a very sloppy performance.

In preparation for these games, Laviolette basically did what I called for in a post last week; he put together a line of Briere-Giroux-Simmonds, and spent their entire practice on Thursday on the power play.  These changes yielded rewards, as Giroux and Briere combined for 5 points this weekend, mostly on a drastically improved PP.  

Even taking these gains into account, I see scant hopes for long term success.  Why?

-The Flyers have no threat on the back-end.  With Carle departed, Meszaros out, and Timonen about to turn 78 38 years old, there is no take-charge puck carrier on the blue line.

-The forward corp is short on skill players or snipers.  Even worse, with Simmonds and Hartnell both injured, they've also lost their 2 best goal scoring power forwards.  Many dreary offensive performances lie ahead.

-B. Schenn and Cooter are not ready.  This team is scary young down the middle, relying on a 21 year old and a 20 year old as their second and third line centers.  There is no margin of error for these guys this season, and they don't appear ready for that burden.  Shades of the disastrous 2006-07 season when 22 year old Carter and Richards weren't ready for similar roles and clocked in with <40 point seasons?

-General disorganization.  The Flyers look disorganized.  They still have coverage breakdowns, and their passing is slow and hesitant.  You almost never see them snap the puck around between players.


The Flyers currently sit 14th out of 15 in the East.  It's not an insurmountable hole for a good team, but the Flyers are not a good team this year.

Raise the Red Flag

I think it's going to be a looooong season for Flyers fans.  The Flyers simply don't look like a very good team, and there is no cavalry on the way.  They have few assets to trade, and Hartnell and Meszaros will not be back any time soon.  Overall, I think Flyers fans need to buckle down for lots of joyless 2-1 hockey games this season, and making the playoffs will be a struggle.

Facts:
-The Flyers have outscored opponents 7-6 in 5-on-5 play this season.  This puts them among the stingiest 5-on-5 teams in the league, but at least it's a positive differential.

-The Flyers have been shorthanded 31 times this season.  That is the second most of anybody in the league.

-The Flyers penalty kill is operating at a pitiful 66.7%.  That is 29th out of 30 teams.

-The Flyers power play is at 13.5%.  That is 24th.

-The Flyers are being outscored 9-4 in the first period.  Three of those goals came against Florida, meaning they've been outscored 9-1 in the first period of all their other games.

Problems:
-Teams are focusing all their attention on Giroux, and he is really struggling because of it.  No one else on the Flyers strikes fear into opponents or creates mismatches.

-No spark from the wings.  Save for Matt Read's outburst against Florida, the Flyers wings have done little to create offense.  They try to score all their goals from the doorstep, as that is the skill set for guys like Knuble and Simmonds.  Still, this is too predictable and easy to defend if no one is stretching the defense.

-The power play is awful.  Just awful.  Confusion, hesitation.  Often times they can't even enter the zone.

Solutions:
-Fix the power play.  Okay, so that is easier said than done, but this should be the predominant project for the coaches.  Spend an unbalance amount of time on it.  Get those zone entries straightened out, which currently look haphazard.  Get Voracek off the point.  If this team is looking for dirty goals from Knuble and Simmonds, get a shooter back there.

-Shoot!  The Flyers pass up countless shooting opportunities for one more pass into the slot.  This relates to the power play and lack of wing play, but when struggling on offense, get the puck to the net!  Even if they don't have natural snipers in the lineup, you've got to try, and stop making it so easy for the defense to collapse in the slot.

-Load up the first line.  The Flyers are going for the balanced approach, but the result is a bunch of mediocre lines and an overwhelmed Giroux.  Take some pressure of Giroux, and put him and Briere on the same line.  Round out the line with Simmonds or Knuble.  I noticed Giroux and Briere were together late in the 3rd last night, but with all the PPs I couldn't tell if that was a one time thing, or if was simply a temporary change while trailing late.

-Stay out of the box.  If your penalty kill sucks, being among the league leaders in times shorthanded is unforgivable.