Don't do it

The consensus in the Philly media yesterday is that the Flyers have prepared a 12 year, $115 million offer to Stamkos as a RFA, and are torn about whether to formally submit it on Friday.

I really really hope the Flyers don't.

Stamkos is probably the best goalscorer in the league.  He should be scoring 40+/year for many years to come, but that contract is huge.  A $9.5+ cap hit every year for a dozen years?  That is a heavy burden no matter how good the player.

Regardless of evaluating the contract in absolute terms, it makes less sense for the Flyers at this point.  A lot can and will change, but if the Flyers don't go after Stamkos their lineup may look something like this;

JVR-Giroux-Cole
Voracek-Briere-Simmonds
Hartnell-Schenn-Versteeg
Holmstrem-Betts-Nodl
Shelley

Pronger-Carle
Timonen-Coburn
Meszaros-Gustafsson
Bartulis

Bryzgalov
Bobrovsky

With estimated values for Cole ($2.5), Voracek ($2.5) and Simmonds ($1.75), the lineup above would likely be around $63.1 million, leaving a little more than $1m in cap space.

To bring in Stamkos at near $10m the Flyers would have to cut A LOT, meaning firesale prices and/or simply cutting some combination of Versteeg, Hartnell, Shelley, Bobrovsky, Carle, and putting Schenn in the AHL next year.  A Stamkos lineup might look something like this;

JVR-Stamkos-Voracek
Briere-Giroux-Simmonds
Nodl-????-????
Holmstrem-Betts-Sestito

Pronger-Carle

Timonen-Coburn

Meszaros-Gustafsson

Bartulis

Bryzgalov

Boucher

Again using some estimates, the lineup above would cost ~$58.3 million against the cap.  That leaves ~$5m to sign 2 or 3 forwards.

Personally, I think the Stamkos lineup is probably worse than the non-Stamkos lineup due to worse 3rd and 4th lines.  Even if you consider the Stamkos lineup better, just to achieve that hypothetical you are; 1) dumping several forward contracts, which is always easier for fans to talk about than to actually accomplish, 2) giving up some package of picks/prospects to have the rights to Stamkos (4 first round picks unless the Flyers work out a deal with Tampa), and 3) hand-tying your cap space for the next several seasons.  A fourth factor is that TB has up to 7 days to match the offer, so if the Flyers submit an offer sheet they are basically frozen out of the free agency signing period to wait on Stamkos who may or may not come.

I feel pretty strongly that to invite all these negative consequences is only acceptable if you're making your team much better.  I don't think that's the case here.  The Flyers can make room for Stamkos if they are willing to simply dump big contracts, but taken as a whole I don't like that plan one bit.  

The Day After

Just a few thoughts now that the initial shock has worn off.

-Trading both Richards and Carter seems to lend credence to the idea that there were locker room issues with the young players on this team.  Going back even further, every last piece of the "Old City Crew" has been shipped out; Upshall, then Lupul, now Richards and Carter.  Seems a long time ago Stevens was coaching that big group of young forwards.

-I have to assume Pronger will be named the captain, as he kind of assumed the role of de facto captain last year anyway.

-As much as I like the deal, Simmonds, Voracek and Schenn will not be able to match the outgoing production of Richards and Carter this year.  They are still young and developing, and are where Richards and Carter were a few years ago.  Can they develop quick enough to win before Timonen and Pronger get too old?

-I really don't think I'll miss Carter too much, but the Richards trade does make me a little nervous.  Richards looked out of shape to me down the stretch this year, but he can still do a little bit of everything and never quits.  All is well if Schenn develops as most expect he will, and he's not a dissimilar player to Richards.  However if Schenn fizzles by any significant amount, the Flyers will have traded their captain in his prime and not have too much to show for it.

-Apparently the Flyers almost sent Richards to the Leafs for Kulemin and Kadri, but the Leafs couldn't make up their mind.  Also the Flyers apparently asked for Ryan Johansen, another center (and #2 on hockeysfuture.com top prospects behing Schenn) from Columbus.  Maybe if Columbus had given in on Johansen the Flyers wouldn't have traded for Schenn?  Who knows, who cares.

-There are some ridiculous rumors floating around about the Flyers chasing Brad Richards or Steven Stamkos.  I can't imagine it.  The Flyers opened up some cap space, but not that much cap space.  Future acquisitions should be to round out the chemistry of the forwards at reasonable prices, not expensive high-end players.  Cole, Gagne...etc.

-I'd also try and get Leino back because of his chemistry with Briere.  People forget how much this team relied on that line up through January, because quite frankly Richards, Carter, and Pronger were having pretty sleepy seasons.

-The team is placing the offense into Claude Giroux's hands.  He is the new franchise center, a role he seemingly was eager to accept this season anyway.  With any luck, Schenn will be there supporting him sooner rather than later.

-The only thing the Flyers didn't address yesterday was young defensemen.  Presumably the Flyers will take a defensemen with the #8 pick, though personally I would even look for a deal to trade Versteeg+#8 pick for a top notch defensive prospect who is close to NHL ready.

ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE

Huge huge huge day for the Flyers.  Actually let's make that 4 huges.

Carter?  Traded.  Richards?  Traded.  Bryzgalov? Signed.

My head is still spinning trying to make sense of it all.  There was always a decent chance Carter would be traded, and Richards was a dark horse trade candidate, but both of them traded?  Shocking.

The bottom line;
Out;
-Richards ($5.75 cap hit)
-Carter ($5.27 cap hit)

In;
-Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.6m cap hit)
-Brayden Schenn ($3.11 cap hit)
-Wayne Simmonds (RFA, $2 cap hit?)
-Jakub Voracek (RFA, $2.5 cap hit?)
-Picks: Columbus's 1st (8th overall), LA's 2nd, Columbus's 3rd

These are blockbuster moves.  Richards and Carter were supposed to be the face of the franchise and each are signed to mega-long term deals.  Schenn was ranked the best prospect in hockey by hockeysfuture.com, and Voracek was another very high pick who may be ready to take off in the NHL. Simmonds is a promising physical winger, and that collection of picks the Flyers added is nothing to scoff at.  Note that the Carter to Columbus deal is basically exactly as speculated a few days ago, with which I was pretty satisfied.

Obvious questions yet to be answered are the contracts for Simmonds and Voracek, and if Versteeg is yet to be traded.  I'd still say there's a fair chance Versteeg goes at the draft, but they no longer have to deal him.  Here's the Flyers lineup as of right now (pay no attention to the lines);

Voracek-Briere-Hartnell
Simmonds-Giroux-JVR
Versteeg-Schenn-???
Powe-Betts-Nodl
Shelley

Pronger-Carle
Coburn-Timonen
Meszaros-Gustaffson
Bartulis

Bryzgalov
Bobrovsky

The lineup above costs ~$56.5 against the cap, and does not include values for Voracek or Simmonds.  Also, if you didn't notice, Leino is not in this lineup, but Versteeg is.  That leaves $7.8m for 3 wingers.

It will be difficult to judge it all until the dust settles, but suffice to say I am excited.  Big upgrade in goal? Check?  Clear cap space? Check.  Add energy and size on the wings? Check.  Add draft picks?  Check.  It remains to be seen what lies ahead for Richards and Carter, but based on their performance last year, this overhaul is fantastic.  Of course they could just as easily have much better years in the future, so it's a risk.

So who are these guys the Flyers got?
-Bryzgalov.  I said last month he was the best goalie out there, but the Flyers likely couldn't fit him on the roster without trading Richards or Carter.  Turns out they were willing deal them both!  Allow me also to pat myself on the back for pretty much nailing his contract value.  Bryzgalov should be good, people.  There are no guarantees, but he's one of only two goalies in the league to finish top 10 in Vezina voting the past two years (Luongo being the other).  Even more impressive, he was a 3 star selection in 44% of his starts last year, and that was in what most consider to be an "off" year for him.  I am very hopeful.

-Schenn.  This guy is a very hot prospect.  The #1 prospect according to some, as mentioned above.  In January in the World Junior championships, he set the tournament record for points, was named the top forward and won the tournament MVP.   I can't say what to expect from him next year in the NHL as a 20 year old, but he projects to be an allstar NHL center for years to come.

-Simmonds.  He is still developing as a NHL player, but he's young (23 at season's start) and the Flyers will look for him to be around 20 goals/45 points.  From what I have seen, he's a physical player and his hits are heavy.

-Voracek.  The #7 pick in the 2007 draft, another winger with size still finding his role in the NHL (22).  No doubt though, he has high end potential.  His numbers at this point of his career compare favorably to Carter at the same point, and the Flyers will hope for 20+ goals and approaching 60 points.

Overall, I am excited.  The Flyers successfully addressed their biggest needs.  They added youthful, sizable physical wingers, made a huge upgrade in goal, got good draft picks, and added the best center prospect in hockey.  The price they paid was steep, but I think most Flyers fans were ready to say goodbye to Carter and Richards for better or for worse.  Exciting times indeed.  It almost feels like one of those trade frenzies you only pull off in video games.

Signing Bryzgalov

There is no progress to report on the Flyers signing Bryzgalov, and it will be no trivial task.  That said, giving the way the season ended and the trade for Bryzgalov's rights, I have to think the Flyers are going to do what it takes to get this done.  Substantive talks should take place this week, so we'll have to check on things on Friday.

So what will he sign for?  The more I think about it, I could see the Flyers going longer term to get the cap hit down.  I previously said I though he would sign for $6-6.5m.  Now I think that for every year the Flyers add beyond 4 years to the deal, the yearly cap hit will come down a little.  Maybe 6-7 years for between $5-5.7m is coming.

Assuming a deal gets done, the fun question is what will the Flyers do to create cap space?  I'm going to assume the Flyers sign Bryz for $5.7, give minimal raises to Powe and Nodl, and let Leino walk away.  That puts the Flyers payroll at $63 million with 11 forwards and 5 defensemen.  Obviously things have to go, and these are the options;
  -First thing, Carter could go.  I've previously addressed this, and I'd be very open to it because I think that represents the Flyers trading from a position of strength to get a large return and clear $5.27m.
  -Second, you've got to think very hard about trading Bobrovsky.  It doesn't make sense for the Flyers to carry the second-most expensive backup in the league, at a cap hit at $1.75m.  Also, by merit of playing 60 games this season, Bobrovsky must clear waivers before he can be sent down to the AHL, so that's no longer an option.  I have no problem with Bobrovsky learning the NHL game as a backup for a season or two, but that doesn't work if Bryzgalov is signed to 5+ years.
  -Third, Versteeg has not been worth his ~$3m cap hit.  The only drawback to trading Versteeg is that he doesn't command much trade value, and the Flyers just gave up a 1st and 3rd round pick to get him.  Oh well, that's not a reason to keep him though.
  -Fourth, some sources say the Flyers would rather trade Richards than Carter.  He would give about the same cap relief as trading Carter, though personally, I would rather trade Carter for many reasons.
  -Fifth, I am open to trading Carle, and I have previously evaluated his strengths and weaknesses.  For all his shortcomings however, he eats up a lot of 5-on-5 minutes, and the health of Pronger and Timonen is less than robust.  That should give the Flyers some pause before trading away a proven NHL defensemen.

So what should the Flyers be looking for in return?  Generally they should want high draft picks, a top defensive prospect, and/or a rugged winger.

It would be impossible to predict a particular deal, however some possibilities are emerging.
  -One possible trade partner is Florida.  Tallon is the new GM there, and he previously had Versteeg in Chicago, and may be interested in acquiring him.  They are also well under the cap-floor, so they have to add salary, and have no starting goalie under contract for next year.  Lastly, they have many pieces the Flyers may be interested in; Markstrom is a top goalie prospect, Gudbranson is a top defensive prospect who should be NHL-ready sooner rather than later, and they also have #3 pick.
  -There have already been rumors of the Blue Jackets trading the #8 pick and other pieces (Voracek?) for Carter.  I think the spine of that deal isn't too bad, with the Flyers getting a very high pick and a young physical winger.
  -Edmonton has the #1 pick, and is looking for a high-end center.
  -Colorado picks at #2 and #11, and their situation in net is unsettled.

The easiest way for the Flyers to open up some cap room is to trade Versteeg for little value, or see who may want Bobrovsky.  What actually shakes out though, is anyone's guess.

Flyers trade for Bryzgalov's rights

The Flyers have acquired Ilya Bryzgalov (due to become a free agent on July 1) for Matt Clackson, a 3rd round pick next year, and a conditional pick.

No one will notice Clackson being gone, but the Flyers give up another (possibly 2) decent picks.

As for Bryzgalov, as I already stated, I think he is the best goalie out there, having high-end ability and entering the prime of his career.  I wasn't sure if he made sense for the Flyers because he is going to want a long-term, high salary deal.  Some inside sources regarding Bryzgalov's negotiations with Phoenix before they traded him;

Real_ESPNLeBrun Pierre LeBrun 

Am told by source that Bryzgalov contract demands with Coyotes were off the charts

DarrenDreger Darren Dreger 

Bryzgalov wants to be paid as a top player...not just a top goalie. Demands too rich for Yotes.

One can only hope he didn't really want to sign with Phoenix, and his demands with the Flyers will be reasonable.  I will be stunned if he signs here for less than 4 years at $5m/year.  I would actually predict he will sign at 4 or 5 years, approximately $6/year (if not a little more).

This raises a few questions;
1) Who else are the Flyers going to trade now?  Even if you assume the Flyers will not carry Zherdev, Carcillo, Nodl, Powe, Laperriere, Walker, O'Donnell and Leighton on the books, the Flyers already still have over $56m committed to players next season.  Simply signing Bryzgalov will eat up all of their currently available cap space (once the cap for next season is announced at between $62 and $63 million--the Flyers can't sign Bryzgalov until that announcement is made because he will put them over the current cap of $59.4m).  At that point, the Flyers will only have 9 forwards (no Leino) and 6 defensemen, so they will need to dump at least $5m in cap space just to fill out the roster.

One has to think the Flyers already have another trade lined up to clear salary, or else they wouldn't have pulled the trigger on this Bryzgalov trade yet.  Carter is the guy everyone is talking about, which makes sense.  I would throw Carle into the fray too, but I don't hear his name come up in rumors very often.

2) Does this say anything about Bobrovsky?  His path to the number 1 job will be blocked for several seasons.  Have the Flyers soured on him?  I guess they could send him to the AHL for a season, though that's probably unlikely.  Most likely is that the team simply decided "screw this, we need a goalie" and they'll worry about Bob later.

3) Should the Flyers be worried about mediocre postseason performances by Bryzgalov in Phoenix?  I don't think so.  He played just fine in the postseason for the Ducks, and his career postseason save percentage in the playoffs is higher than his regular season number.  The Coyotes were hardly a team primed for postseason runs, and he was one of the biggest reasons they got there in the first place.



Long story short, this is very exciting news for the Flyers.  They've got a very good goalie within their grasp, but this trade cannot be judged until Bryzgalov actually signs a contract with the Flyers and we also see what the Flyers send out the door in a subsequent trade.  Also, it's very difficult to see Leino resigning now, unless the Flyers dump Carter AND another significant contract.

Are the Flyers terrible at drafting goalies?

Just a pet project here.  Flyers fans love to complain about how the Flyers are terrible at drafting and developing goalies.  Well here's how everyone has done, by the numbers, in drafting goalies since 1995 (just to choose a round number).

Team - # of goalies selected - best picks
Anaheim - 12 - Byrzgalov (2nd), Gerber
Atlanta - 10 (since 2000) - Lehtonen (#2 ), Nurminen, Pavelec (2nd)
Boston - 12 - Raycroft
Buffalo - 13 - Biron (#16), Noronen (#21), Miller, Enroth (2nd)
Calgary - 11 - Sabourin, McElhinney
Carolina - 14 - Giguere (#13), Ward (#25)
Chicago - 15 - Leighton, Anderson (3rd), Crawford (2nd)
Colorado - 19 - Denis (#25), Aebischer, Budaj (2nd), B. Johnson
Columbus - 8 (since 2000) - Leclaire (#8), S. Mason (3rd)
Dallas - 10 - Dan Ellis (2nd), M. Smith
Detroit - 12 - Howard (2nd)
Edmonton - 15 - Markkanen, Deslauriers
Florida - 16 - Auld (2nd)
LA - 19 - Huet, Quick (3rd), Bernier (#11)
Minnesota - 9 (since 2002) - Harding (2nd)
Montreal - 10 - Garon (2nd), Halak, Price (#5)
Nashville - 15 (since 1999) - Rinne, Lindback
NJ - 11 - C. Mason
New York Isles - 17 - Luongo (#4), DiPietro (#1)
New York Rangers - 13 - LaBarbera (3rd), Holmquist, Lundquist
Ottawa - 9 - Emery (4th), Elliot
Philadelphia - 22 - Boucher (#22), Nittymaki, Cechmanek
Phoenix - 15 - Esche
Pittsburgh - 18 - Aubin (3rd), Caron (3rd), Fleury (#1)
San Jose - 16 - Toskala (4th), Kiprusoff
St. Louis - 12 - None
Tampa Bay - 17 - Norrena
Toronto - 12 - Tellqvist (3rd), Rask (#21), Riemer (4th)
Washington - 16 - Varlamov (#23), Neuvirth (2nd), Holtby (4th)
Vancouver - 14 - Schneider (#26)

Also, turns out a number of goalies of note were taken in 1994 (Storr-LA, Cloutier-NYR, Theodore-MTL, Turco-DAL, Thomas-QUE/COL, Hedberg-PHI, Nabokov-SJ, Vokoun-MTL, Grahame-BOS).  Remarkably, Thomas, Hedberg, Nabokov, Vokoun and Grahame were all taken within 10 picks of one another in the 9th round in 1994, but I digress.

Anyway, the moral of the story is that drafting a goalie is hard.  No one team has shown that they've really figured it out more than anyone else, though teams like Buffalo and Nashville have found some winners.  I've bolded a few teams, notable for their success or failure.  The Flyers have been trying their darndest to get a winner spending more picks on goalies than anyone else, and had some success but no franchise goalie.

The above chart, however, shows that getting a franchise goalie is either luck or a matter of using a top-5 pick on a can't-miss prospect.  Other #1 goalies like Niemi, Backstrom and Hiller, were undrafted.

Now if you want to fault the Flyers for not prioritizing on acquiring an established goalie, that may be another matter....