Playoff Picks

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Penguins (72) v. Islanders (55)

The Isles have some spunk, and I think they could beat most teams in the East, but they draw Pittsburgh.  Too bad for them.  Pens in 6.


Canadiens (63) v. Senators (56)

I’m just not a believer in this Canadiens team this year, and Price doesn’t look like himself.  I think Ottawa guts it out. Sens in 6.

Capitals (57) v. Rangers (56)

Have the Capitals recaptured their mojo of a few years past, when they were perennial East favorites?  I’m not sure, but they’re playing well enough to knock off the Rangers who never really got it going this season.  Caps in 7.

Bruins (62) v. Leafs (57)

 The Bruins lost in the first round last year, and are probably the coldest team entering the playoffs.  The Leafs are a surprise this year and will not be bullied by the Bruins.  Looks like a 7 game series to me.  Bruins in 7.



WESTERN CONFERENCE

Blackhawks (77) v. Wild (55)

 The Blackhawks were the best team in the regular season.  The Wild are objectively the weakest team in the playoffs.  We have a mismatch.  Hawks in 4.


Ducks (66) v. Wings (56)

 Are the Red Wings as good as they appeared at the end of the season?  Are the Ducks as good as their season-long performance suggests?  I’ll go with the sustained excellence and depth.  Ducks in 7.


Canucks (59) v. Sharks (57)

 I don’t like either of these team’s chances for a playoff run.  Sharks will dominate on faceoffs, and won’t need a lot of goals to win in what will likely be a sleepy series.  Sharks in 6.


Blues (60) v. Kings (59)

This looks like it might be the best first round series.  The Blues are still an up-and-coming team, don’t give up many shots, and have good skaters on defense.  The Kings are the defending champs and can be physically intimidating.  I’ll take the surging Blues and their mobile defense over the Kings with Quick in pedestrian form.  Blues in 7.

Draft Thoughts Follow-up

Just as a brief follow-up to my post on drafting Couturier over Hamilton in 2011, I was struck by an article on ESPN today.  Now the article is concerned with NFL drafting, so it's only loosely analogous, but there's one passage that stood out to me:

"...as a collective entity, the league does an acceptable job of putting guys in buckets.
When it comes to valuing draftees at the same position who are clumped together in a similar tier, I'm skeptical. I wonder whether the margin of error in analyzing those players is larger than any advantage a particular franchise has in scouting talent."
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9202430/bill-barnwell-inconsistency-nfl-draft

It's also worth considering that NFL drafts are for guys in their early 20s for very specialized roles.  If anything, scouting NFL draft picks should be much easier than NHL teams drafting 18-year olds.

I guess I just come back to the question of with what degree of confidence can any NHL team say two very closely ranked prospects is better than another?  Could the Flyers really conclude that Couturier is simply a better prospect, so forget about position?

I can't really slag on the Flyers too much, as they have generally done an excellent job with their first round picks, which are generally in the latter portions of the round.  But by trading away so many picks, and then inordinately drafting centers with the picks they do keep, clearly the Flyers have made their own bed with an empty cupboard of defensemen.

Draft Do-Over?

Regardless of where the Flyers end up picking in this draft, there's always the question of drafting to need.  Most accepted is the theory of drafting the best player available, regardless of position.  It would be pretty stupid to draft to fill a particular need of an NHL roster, simply because most draft picks take years to mature into NHL contributors.  Who knows what your specific needs will be in 5 years?  Whether or not there may be some logic in drafting for an organizational need, however, after identifying lack of depth in a certain area, isn't necessarily so stupid.

The Flyers in fact may have been much better served doing so.

Think back 2 years ago, when the Flyers obtained the Blue Jackets' #8 overall pick, a rare high pick for the Flyers.  At the time, I wrote that the Flyers would presumably look for a defensemen there.  As the draft unfolded, the chips appeared to fall perfectly for the Flyers.  As expected, Adam Larsson was the #1 defensemen available and was quickly snatched up.  After the surprise choice of Scheifele by the Jets though, #2 defensemen Dougie Hamilton was, somewhat surprisingly, still on the board when the Flyers picked.  Easy choice, right?

Not so fast, as Sean Couturier was unexpectedly still available as well.  His draft stock had fallen somewhat, as several months prior he was considered a potential #1 overall.  I think when all is said and done, the Flyers simply thought Couturier was a better player so they drafted him, despite the organization being deep at center with no high-end defensive prospects to speak of.

Two years later, things haven't changed much.  The Flyers are still well-stocked at center for now and the future with Giroux, Briere, Schenn, Couturier, Laughton and Cousins, but they are absolutely screaming for high-end (preferably puck-moving) defensive prospects.  This is not knock on Couturier at all, as I have said repeatedly I think he is the Flyers best prospect since Lindros.  He's had some very tough stretches this season, but I think he will bounce back and likely be a second-line center than Schenn, honestly (better defensively, bigger, and similar offensive potential based on what I'm seeing).

The only thing that hurts is what they could've had in Hamilton.  Since the draft, Hamilton won Canadien Junior defensemen of the year last year, and this year has become a key member of the cup contending Bruins.  He's getting PP time, taking shifts with Chara, has 15 points in 40 games, and overall playing 16-18 minutes a night.  He's also 6'5", has a right-handed shot, and clearly projects as a top pairing guy in the long run.  In other words, EXACTLY what the Flyers organization needs.

Because of the situation described above, the Flyer may trade Couturier this offseason.  He's their most valuable asset, and it may make sense to slot Schenn in at #2 center and Laughton at #3 (assuming he keeps impressing), leaving Couturier with no clear spot.  Oh, and the Flyers now have more of a need than ever for a long term puck-moving solution on defense.  If the Flyers want to address this problem, Couturier is the best tool to do so.  Or they could've just drafted differently 2 years ago and not have to play the fickle trade market....