Who is JVR?

A lot of Flyers have stepped up this season.  Jagr has turned back the clock, Read and Couturier have turned a lot heads, and Giroux has raised his game to be among the league's best.  A player who has not grabbed many people's attention is Van Riemsdyk.

Fair or not, Flyers fans have always saddled JVR with high hopes.  This originally sprang from nothing more than his draft position.  He has the unfortunate distinction of being the only very high pick the Flyers were awarded based on a bad season in a long time, and through cruel luck, the Flyers picked second despite having the worst record in the league. In the eyes of many fans he is always going to be judged against subjective judgments on what a #2 pick is "supposed to" be.  Admittedly, he comes in the midst of a string of fantastic players that have emerged from that draft slot.
2000 - Dany Heatley
2001 - Jason Spezza
2002 - Kari Lehtonen
2003 - Eric Staal
2004 - Evgeni Malkin
2005 - Bobby Ryan
2006 - Jordan Staal
2007 - James Van Riemsdyk
2008 - Drew Doughty
2009 - Victor Hedman
Of course the 1990s draft gave us gems such as Pat Falloon, Andrei Zyuzin and David Legwand from the two slot.  It's also entirely irrelevant.  The Flyers could only draft players who were available in that particular draft, and it's not JVR's fault that there was no else better that year.

The full 2007 draft top-10;
1 - Patrick Kane
2 - JVR
3 - Kyle Turris
4 - Thomas Hickey
5 - Karl Alzner
6 - Sam Gagner
7 - Jakub Voracek
8 - Zach Hamill
9 - Logan Couture
10 - Keaton Ellerby
A few quality players in there, but it's not like there was a big star that is looming over JVR that the Flyers could've taken.  It simple wasn't a good draft, which was just plain old bad luck for the Flyers.


Now he's got his shiny new $4.25x6 contract (that kicks in after this season), which means he will soon be paid like the go-to goal scorer he appeared to be in the playoffs.  The Flyers took a chance with that contract based on very limited periods of dominant play, so has he played that way this season?  8g and 8a in 19 games is not bad at all.  That pace equals about 34g and 34a for the season--a line people should be satisfied with from a guy whose career highs are 21g 19a.

The thing is, that current stat line flatters in his current play in my opinion.  Many nights he is not very noticeable, and has been a complementary player to linemates that are making more happen.  Also, he did not look good with Jagr and Giroux.  Fans do not want to give Hartnell any credit and insist he's just an overpaid warm body for Giroux and Jagr, but the fact is Hartnell has been a very effective nuisance on that line.  JVR really did very little on that line.  This is also ironic because Hartnell's "overpriced" contract that is winding down is nearly identical to JVR's new contract (Hartnell-$4.2x6, JVR-$4.25x6).

Perhaps Laviolette can deploy him better.  I, for one, don't like JVR at the point on the power play at all.  He looks like an elite player when he is carrying the puck to the net, using his skating, stickhandling and big body in a combination that few NHL players have.  He isn't going to excel dishing or slapping it from the perimeter.

On the bright side, last night was maybe his best game of the season.  He used his size to protect the puck while skating around the outside.  This was his key to success last year, particularly in the playoffs.  If JVR hits 30 goals this year I will declare it a successful season for him and on track to earn his new contract, but the challenge for him will be consistency.  He's been prone to lulls, though this is not uncommon for young players.  If he keeps his play simple and focuses on what he does best, I think it will work out for him.

Coyotes Rip Bryz

I was a little taken aback by these comments made on the radio by two of Bryzgalov's former teammates before last night's game.

Derek Morris:

Q: What is this team's collective mindset as you take on your former goaltender?First of all we have to throw a lot of pucks at Bryz. He's known for letting in bad goals, you know, so I think our mindset is going to be get the puck down behind the net and hopefully he comes out and plays a few because he doesn't like to do that.
We have to put some pressure on Bryz. We've gotta make it a tough night, we gotta have guys in front, we've gotta be banging away at rebounds. He gets frustrated that way.
Q: I'm sure there will be some chirping involved, right?That's expected in every game. But it might go to the extreme today.
Q: There is a mental strength that is missing there, right?We're actually glad -- first of all, I'm glad he's gone because the guy we brought in has done a great job and fitted in real well, made our team even closer. There was some animosity there with Bryz sometimes. We don't have that with [Mike Smith] so we have a good group and we're winning games because of it.
Q: On using this game as motivation:It's gonna be great. You know Bryz will be just as prepared. Bryz is one of the best goalies in the game and when he wants to play, one of the best goalies you can have out there. We have a good goalie and a good system and we're going to do what we can to get pucks to the net. I think it's going to be an ugly goal from the side that'll go in on Bryz.

Glad's he gone?  Animosity?  Wow.

Adrian Aucoin:

Q: I actually used a quote of yours you gave to NHL.com about Mr. Bryzgalov -- it was more about Mike Smith, though, where you said he's more approachable. He's here everyday and I can get to know him as a teammate. Can you take that a little further? What did you mean specifically?We don't always try to win for the right reasons, but anybody who is a professional wants to win no matter what the situation is, who your teammates are, coaches are, how many fans you have there, anything. But it adds to your motivation when you have a good guy back there who you always want to do well for.
Q: Derek Morris just described the relationship between the room and Ilya last year as one with animosity. Is he right?Absolutely. I honestly haven't met almost any hockey player that's a bad person. I think he was different as a player -- obviously he was a great player -- more as a person. Sometimes he just did things that weren't very typical of hockey players or teammates but he's a good goalie.
Q: Is he misunderstood? Sometimes you look at a guy who's speaking a second language and go wait a minute. My take on it is that's an excuse, so I'm gonna say no, but I'm not his teammate. I was just watching.No, he's a pretty smart guy. He knew what he was saying.

A second voice adding the animosity claim.  Also, he implies that the players didn't want to play for Bryzgalov.  Comments like this usually don't get thrown around even in the most acrimonious of breakups in the NHL, so it's very surprising here.

It doesn't take long to see that Bryzgalov is somewhat of a kooky character, although that's not unusual for goalies in the NHL.  It's another thing, however, to say that Bryzgalov's attitude was detrimental to the team and you're glad to see him go.  Even then, it's not like Eddie Belfour and Patrick Roy departed on good terms before winning cups elsewhere, and Hasek was criticized as too flaky to be trusted for a playoff team.

Honestly I did see a few inklings of Bryzgalov getting frustrated with his teammates after all those deflected goals, staring or visibly sighing at teammates who inadvertently deflected the puck past him.  That's not a good habit.  Still I think NHL players are willing to tolerate this in small amounts, and if Bryzgalov's play keeps up, no one will mind.

The only bummer is that Bryzgalov DID allow a stuffer/bad-angle goal, tarnishing what was otherwise maybe his sharpest game of the season.

Carter
Speaking of players, who in the words of Bryzgalov may be "lost in the woods", RDS reported that Carter wants out of Columbus.  It was no secret how devastated Carter was to be traded last offseason, holing up in his Jersey Shore house until Columbus sent a delegation to talk to him.  Columbus's embarrassing start to the season certainly wasn't going to help anything.  But Carter has only played 8 games for Columbus!  Eight!

Now the denials have already come out, notably from his agent.  The sum of the evidence points the fact that Carter has not formally requested a trade, but the notion he wants out has not been disputed by any party, which is pretty embarrassing.  Surely there is more to come on this story as the season progresses...

The Numbers on Coburn Extension

Last week Coburn signed a $4.5x4 contract with the Flyers.  He was due to be an unrestricted free agent this offseason.  Good deal?  Let's see.

Coburn is currently 26 years old, and skates very well for a man his size, 6'5".  However he doesn't play as big as his size might suggest.  His production has declined steadily the last few seasons, down to 2g, 16a last season.  He plays about 21 minutes a night.

What are comparable free agent defensemen contracts signed in the last two years?

Offseason 2010:
Zbynek Michalek - 27, $4x5, ~20 point, ~22 minutes/game
Sergei Gonchar - 36, $5.5x3, high scoring, ~23 minutes/game
Paul Martin - 29, $5x5, ~30 points, 23/24 minutes/game
Derek Morris - 31, $2.75x4, mid 20s points, ~21 minutes/game
Toni Lydman - 32, $3x3, low 20s points, 19-22 minutes/game

Offseason 2011:
Jonathan Ericsson - 26, $3.25x3, high teens points, high teens minutes
Roman Hamrlik - 36, $3.5x3, low 30s points, ~22 minutes

Really the closest comparison to Coburn are the contracts of Michalek and Martin, and Coburn's contract splits the difference between the two.  The Flyers basically paid prevailing market prices, no more, no less.  Fans tend to hear a number, and subjectively judge whether Player A is "__ million dollar defensemen."  That's not really connected to reality.  Coburn has his limitations, but he can play significant minutes and be comfortable on the second pair, and $4-5 million is the price for that right now.

Stalling Out

The Flyers-Tampa Bay game the other night is the talk of the league right now.  Briefly, Tampa Bay plays a unique and very conservative 1-3-1 neutral zone trap.  The Flyers didn't want to skate into it, so they just stood there with the puck in the their own end.  Literally.  Repeatedly.

It made for a dreadful first period.  There were a lot of penalties in then 2nd period, and things got more heated in the 3rd, but the ugly sight of the first period is sticking in people's minds.  What to do about it?

First thing, what the NHL does NOT want to do is make a rash, midseason rule change for what is still an isolated incident.  Let's see how much of a problem this is before directly addressing it.

If you do identify it as an ongoing concern, then you need to decide upon whom to place the burden.  Bob McKenzie polled the GMs on who was in the wrong here, and of the 18 GMs that responded, 13 said TB. 

Often people's first inclination to remedy the problem is a shot clock like solution which requires a team to carry the puck out of their own zone.  The way I see it, the behavior the NHL wants to root out is the trap.  Why reinforce the notion that trapping is a dominant strategy?  If the NHL is going to choose to force someone to change their ways, it should penalize trapping.

Any solution should be simple.  Simple to comply with, simple to judge, and hopefully with few unintended consequences.  It would be very easy to place a burden on a team to force them to carry the puck into a trap--just pass a rule like basketball where a ball possessor has 5 seconds to advance the puck in a count carried out by the officials (no actual clock).

Placing a burden on the trapping team is a little more difficult, but doesn't have to be an obtuse rule.  You could have illegal defense rules like the NBA, you could ban forwards from skating backwards in the neutral zone, or you could put a 5 second rule on them for someone to pursue the puck.  I think the latter is the best idea.  No convoluted rules, clocks, it just means that when a defensemen has a puck in his own end, you have to challenge him after a few seconds of standing around.  Simple.

I suspect we're not going to see many more incidents like that this year, but if we do it should be addressed in the offseason to place a burden on the trapping team.  No one likes the trap anyway.

Winter Classic Jerseys

Thus far, every participant in the Winter Classic has worn a special jersey just for the occassion.  This year, the Flyers have yet to announce the new look, and I don't know what the timeline is.  Several mockups have hit the internet.

The earliest I can recall hearing news on the jersey was last May, when Tim Panaccio tweeted; "saw #flyers Winter Classic jerseys. awful. looks like Cincy Bengals. since when is this the NFL?"

Later in the summer, these jerseys started popping up on the internet.

I have been to several Flyers games this year, and I am stunned at how many fans already have this jersey.  Still, word on the street is that this is not the jersey.  Not even close.

Shortly after the season started, this image made the rounds on the internet.

I liked that one much better myself, and I have just recently begun seeing it for sale on the internet.

Just this week, a slightly different take was floated.

I think this was as much conceptual as someone actually claiming to have the real design.  It wouldn't be too bad in my opinion though.

Now just today, new images have surfaced.

I couldn't say if this is real or not, but if it's a knockoff, it's a pretty well made knockoff.  It's also similar to the mockup from October, with more white worked in.

I like it.  Either way, it shouldn't be long before the real jersey is revealed.  The game is less than 2 months away, and they've got to maximize those sales!

One Month Down

October is over, and the Flyers' season is approximately 4 weeks old.  Or, as Sean Avery might measure it, one menstrual cycle is complete.  Either way, a good time to stop and see where the Flyers are.

Among the themes to which I've already commented;
-The Flyers sit at 6-4-1, and hopefully have righted the ship with a solid win over Carolina.  Again, this is a decent enough start for a team with so many new faces.

-Since my post saying don't worry about Bryzgalov, he hit rock bottom against Winnipeg, but played a solid game against Carolina.  I think he'll be fine, and that he's a quality goaltender--one month in Philly won't kill him.  My own evaluation of him was that he was becoming too passive and slow, even if it's his game to be a passive shot blocker.  He needed to be a little more active, particularly on recovering from shots.  Goalie coach Reese also said he thought Bryz was distracted, and in terrible news for the local sports media, the Flyers are muzzling his pre-game interactions with the press.  All of this will sort itself out, and falls under the general settling in process.

-Since my post saying be worried about Hartnell, Laviolette "promoted" him to the top line with Giroux and Jagr, and it has worked unbelievably.  Not just for Hartnell, but for the whole line.  Laviolette took some heat for disrupting winning chemistry when Schenn was called, though in my opinion none of the Flyers lines were exactly clicking 5-on-5.  Even with Giroux racking up goals, 5-on-5 production from he and Jagr (which is how you should judge how well a line is playing) was very poor.  A clear illustration;

5-on-5 stats in 6 games of JVR-Giroux-Jagr
JVR - 1g, 1a, -1
Giroux - 2g, 1a, -1
Jagr - 0g, 0a, even

Compare that to the numbers since Laviolette juggled the lines;

5-on-5 stats in 5 games of Hartnell-Giroux-Jagr
Hartnell - 3g, 7a, +4
Giroux - 1g, 4a, +2
Jagr - 4g, 2a, +3 

Night and day.  Either way, Hartnell has reclaimed his role on this team and will stick with Giroux and Jagr for the foreseeable future.  Also, so much for Jagr's lack of goals that some people were whispering about....

-Schenn is injured again.  Bummer.

Team Stats

Goals - 3.73/game (2nd in NHL)
Goals against - 3.27/g (28th)
Faceoffs - 46.4% (29th)
Power play - 22.2 % (6th)
Penalty kill - 81.5% (18th)  (the Flyers have also been shorthanded 34 times, the 2nd most of any team in the league)
Shots For - 32.8/g (6th)
Shots Against - 26.3 (2nd)

Other player evaluations;
-Voracek is improving, but still not terribly effective.  At least he's up on his skates and is getting chances.

-JVR is also improving, but is not looking anything like the player on a tear last spring.  His play will have to improve from its current form for him to hit the 30+ goals target I was hoping for.

-I'm eager to see what Gustafsson can do in an extended audition.

-Timonen is looking healthier and stronger than last spring.

-After his brush with a very serious injury, Chris Pronger is still a wiseass.

-Couturier looks to be staying for the duration, though honestly I'm a little concerned about him being parked on the 4th line, getting very few even strength minutes.  His long term outlook remains very strong though.

-Rinaldo has made a strong case to hold a roster spot.  He won't play many minutes, but the guy is instant energy that appears to spark his teammates.

-Simmonds has some stone hands going, but he is always battling and some goals could come very soon on the PP.

-If Matt Read can keep playing with jump he will be a valuable winger for this team.