Playoff Picks, 2015

Finally, the suffering is over for the Flyers.  While the Flyers do have many questions to answer, particularly floating around Craig Berube, I'll look to those another day.  All that really matters for the Flyers is 6.5%; their chances of getting the top pick and Connor McDavid.  The Flyers will otherwise pick seventh, although they could get bumped down to 8th if a team below them wins the lottery (there is a cumulative 23% chance of that happening).

So, putting that dreariness aside, on to the games that matter.  As my post history below shows, I was doing a little statistics nerdery to create a playoff proficiency mathematical ranking.  Here are the results based on final regular season statistics.

There are two main takeaways for me from there.  One, Chicago has a bit of breathing room, although there is an equally clear top-5.  Second, no team earns a particularly high ranking.  Every previous season saw at least one team break 8 points on this scale.  With Patrick Kane's health still an issue in Chicago, and the general parity otherwise, things could be pretty wide open and hinge on particular matchups.  Either way, I will use those rankings as "seeds" below.

Eastern Conference

 

The Rangers will be a Cup favorite for many, and deservedly so.  They reached the finals last year, have the #1 goal difference in the NHL, and have a fast and complete lineup.  Not too long ago, the Penguins looked formidable.  They are strong across the board in pertinent categories (#2 seed in rankings!), but the wins haven't come recently.  They squeaked into the playoffs on a 1-4-1 skid, with the only win coming against the lowly Sabres.  Add to that a season ending injury to Kris Letang, and things look bleak.  Last year Rangers overcame a 3-1 series deficit to beat the Penguins in the second round.  That won't be necessary this year.  Rangers in 6.

 

The Canadiens pose the question, how much can we ask from our goalie?  Carey Price seems a lock for the Vezina, but he can't do it all.  Fortunately for them, Ottawa is not a formidable team.  The Sens have been on fire since mid-February with the best stats in the East.  The Hamburglar has created a phenomenon, and the Sens are now playing with house money in the playoffs.  Still, I'm not convinced that they will keep this going in the playoffs.  Pacioretty's injury isn't helping Montreal, but they have enough to beat an Ottawa team that is over its head.  Montreal in 7.

 

My rankings were not kind to either of these teams.  The Islanders are terrible in the key indicators of PK and save percentage, and the Caps rely on the PP, which almost never translates into playoff success.  I like the Islanders young group of forwards, but I'm really not sold on their defense and goaltending.  On the other hand, the Caps scoring is incredibly top-heavy relying on Ovechkin and Backstrom, and Barry Trotz has a terrible playoff record from his time in Nashville.  Someone has to win though.  Maybe's Washington will be the exception and win a playoff series on their PP, feasting on the horrible Islanders kill.  Washington in 7.

 

By my rankings, this is the most lopsided matchup of the first round. It's quite a contrast, with TB relying on young forwards like Johnson, Kucherov and Palat, while Detroit throws out guys in their mid-30s like Zetterberg, Datsyuk and Kronwall.  TB's defense still might not be fully healthy, but if things click, TB could make a deep run this year.  TB in 5.

 

Minnesota's season has been ridiculous.  Without going into too much detail, it's hard to get over Dubnyk's stat line of 27-9-2, .936 sv% and 1.78 GAA.  Additionally, Minnesota's goal difference since the all-star break is a phenomenal +38.  For St. Louis, they've been perennial playoff disappointments, as I know first hand from picking them many times and getting burned.  Blues fans are hopeful that the exploits of young guns Tarasenko and Schwartz given them an offensive swerve they've never had and will break that streak.  There may be some truth to that, but this match up does them no favors in changing their luck.  I like the Wild's chances of going far.  Wild in 7.

 

Honestly, you look at Anaheim's stats, and you wonder how they got anywhere near the top seed.  How a team gets 50 wins with a mere +10 goal differential boggles the mind.  They don't seem to excel at anything, thus the #14 rank.  Winnipeg isn't going to bowl over anyone, but they're #1 in Corsi Close in the NHL, which is really impressive.  I really hate their goaltending situation, but I'm going to go with Winnipeg over Anaheim's smoke and mirrors win/loss record.  Winnipeg in 7.

 

Calgary is another plucky team that has won a lot of fans this year.  They beat out the Kings for a spot, and everyone loves Johnny Hockey and Monahan.  None of that, however, changes the fact that they're not very good otherwise, and their Corsi is shockingly awful.  For the Canucks, it's been a amazingly quick turnaround, but they look pretty solid.  Vancouver in 5.

Another mismatch by my rankings, Chicago doesn't look as irresistible as past cup winning editions, but they were good enough to be #1 by my formula.  Patrick Kane is still uncertain, and their offense has really struggled since the all-star game (26th in goals scored).  I still like them much better than Nashville though, as their stats are better across the board.  Nashville has an ugly -8 goal difference since the ASG themselves.  Chicago in 6.