Monday, July 20, 2015

Broad Street Buzz

I will now be writing over at Broad Street Buzz.

I'll keep this blog up over here, maybe still do some posts here, but most of my writing will now be over there.

So go read my first post there!

http://broadstreetbuzz.com/2015/07/20/philadelphia-flyers-gagner-flyers-next-rehabilitation-project/

Thursday, July 16, 2015

Gagner vs. Voracek

With the news that the Flyers will be keeping Sam Gagner on the roster, I thought it would be worthwhile to try and feel out some reasonable expectations for him this season.  The easiest place to begin is to compare him to Jake Voracek.

Gagner and Voracek are the same age, and were taken #6 and #7 respectively in the 2007 NHL draft. For quite a while they were regarded about equally.  Take a look at their points/game to this point in their NHL careers.

Gagner immediately was promoted to the NHL and had a pretty good season (his second highest points/minute in career, in fact).  After that, the players tracked very closely for the next 4 years.

Things really took off for Voracek in his second full season with the Flyers, in the strike shortened year.  Still, many would probably say they were still closely comparable, as evidenced by their contracts.  In his breakout season, Voracek was in the first year of a 4 year deal that pays him $4.25m/year (this upcoming season is the last season of this contract).  After that same season, the Oilers signed Gagner to a deal that paid him $4.8m/year.  Maybe the Oilers were foolish, and Voracek would've cashed in on the big year a bit, but it still shows their general respect level around the league were similar.

Things really went off the rails for Gagner in 2013-2014, as he registered a career worst 37 points, and had the second worst plus/minus on the team.  This resulted in the Oilers casting him off, ultimately landing arriving in Arizona via Tampa Bay.  His stats didn't improve much last season in the desert, although to be fair he was the top scoring forward on a team with no talent up front.

There aren't a lot of indicators that Gagner is due for a bounce-back season this year with the Flyers.  He does however fill a need for the Flyers, as in my opinion their top off-season need was skill on the wings.  Gagner and the Flyers must hope that a permanent move to the wing and the change of scenery to Philadelphia will reinvigorate his career.  The Flyers are probably hoping for 45-50 points from him, and anything above that will be a bonus. 

Maybe the Flyers can make it three in a row on reclamation projects; Mason, Del Zotto, then Gagner.

Del Zotto Contract

 Speaking of Del Zotto, it was announced today that the Flyers re-signed Michael Del Zotto.  He was due for an arbitration hearing next week.

The details of the deal is that it's a 2 year deal, at a cap hit of $3.875/year.  I don't love the deal, but I don't hate it either.  I'm not completely sold on Del Zotto's all around game, but the guy deserves credit.  He came in on a put-up-or-shut-up one year deal, and scored 10 goals and 32 points in 64 games.  I was expecting his deal to be between $3.5 and 4 million, although I had lingering fears of a higher cap hit or a long term.  With a 2-year deal, the Flyers aren't married to him long term, which is needed flexibility with all the young defensemen the Flyers have coming up.

The Flyers now have around $300k and change of cap space, if you include Manning on the squad.  They would get back $625k if they send him down to the AHL.