So with a whole lot of nothing happening, I took a few minutes and mapped out where some Flyers are playing hockey these days.
View Where are the Flyers in a larger map
Opinions on NHL topics of the moment, but mostly on the Flyers.
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Thursday, September 6, 2012
On the Lockout
Admittedly, I have been willfully ignorant of the daily "news" regarding CBA negotiations. I have little doubt there will be a lockout, and I refuse to take sides or get caught up in the little issues.
When the parties get serious, they'll find common ground. There are no absolutes or untouchable principles in these negotiations, and in the end it's just who gets how much money. That said, I've seen a lot of commentary regarding the lockout that I find curious.
One comment I've heard a few times is that the big contracts being thrown around are evidence that the "owners" are making money and are being hypocritical. That seems to me to be a completely unwarranted conclusion from a small slice of evidence. On the one hand, you can say that obviously means the owners have money to spend, but one could look at the same evidence and conclude that it proves the financials of the current CBA are broken, and requires the owners to make backbreaking deals to compete on the ice.
I think there are some realities that need to be considered here. One, GMs and owners aren't really one in the same. An owner wants the prestige and fun of owning a pro hockey team, and would prefer to make money for his trouble. He certainly doesn't want to lose his personal fortune propping the team up, however. A GM's job is purely to win under the set of rules he is given. Once the CBA is laid down, a GM's job is to manipulate and exploit the system as much as possible to give his team a leg up. His boss (the owner) can veto any deal he makes, but the GM has to try and make the deal. This means exploiting contract loopholes before they are closed in the new CBA.
I suppose an owner could take a principled stand and say "these long term deals are killing the league, so out of good faith don't sign any this offseason," but why would the owner competitively disadvantage his team going forward? Such loopholes can be dealt with far more effectively in the longterm through the new CBA. This calculation is cynical, and there will always be an element of saving the "owners" from themselves, but it's not really hypocritical.
The second thing you have to consider is that the "owners" are really a disparate group of franchises with very different financial realities. With the salary cap, it seems clear that the the rich franchises are sitting on piles of cash they are unable to spend. On the other end of the spectrum poor franchises are being forced to spend beyond their revenues to reach the salary cap floor. Unless teams are contracted (which won't happen), the "owners" collective has to act on behalf of their struggling brethren. It seems to me that the mistake here is that the salary cap range was too small, but then you get into issues of competitive balance and the like.
There are lots of way to address this practical issue, like salary range limits, revenue sharing, trading cap space, non-guaranteed years...etc, all of which would make for interesting hockey discussion. I don't know what the best answer to all of this would ultimately be, but unfortunately that's not the contentious issue out there right now. The real sticking point thus far is how much "hockey related revenue" the players are entitled to. The answer to that question is independent of any other consideration or issue and will only be settled through hard negotiation, which takes time.
A professional sporting league is by nature a contrived situation where organizations collude for mutual benefit, while still competing against one another. It is inherently contradictory. Let the boys fight over who gets the bigger piece of pie. Until then, be wary of platitudes about the millionaires or billionaires being "greedy," or a hockey fan favorite---blame it all on Bettman.
When the parties get serious, they'll find common ground. There are no absolutes or untouchable principles in these negotiations, and in the end it's just who gets how much money. That said, I've seen a lot of commentary regarding the lockout that I find curious.
One comment I've heard a few times is that the big contracts being thrown around are evidence that the "owners" are making money and are being hypocritical. That seems to me to be a completely unwarranted conclusion from a small slice of evidence. On the one hand, you can say that obviously means the owners have money to spend, but one could look at the same evidence and conclude that it proves the financials of the current CBA are broken, and requires the owners to make backbreaking deals to compete on the ice.
I think there are some realities that need to be considered here. One, GMs and owners aren't really one in the same. An owner wants the prestige and fun of owning a pro hockey team, and would prefer to make money for his trouble. He certainly doesn't want to lose his personal fortune propping the team up, however. A GM's job is purely to win under the set of rules he is given. Once the CBA is laid down, a GM's job is to manipulate and exploit the system as much as possible to give his team a leg up. His boss (the owner) can veto any deal he makes, but the GM has to try and make the deal. This means exploiting contract loopholes before they are closed in the new CBA.
I suppose an owner could take a principled stand and say "these long term deals are killing the league, so out of good faith don't sign any this offseason," but why would the owner competitively disadvantage his team going forward? Such loopholes can be dealt with far more effectively in the longterm through the new CBA. This calculation is cynical, and there will always be an element of saving the "owners" from themselves, but it's not really hypocritical.
The second thing you have to consider is that the "owners" are really a disparate group of franchises with very different financial realities. With the salary cap, it seems clear that the the rich franchises are sitting on piles of cash they are unable to spend. On the other end of the spectrum poor franchises are being forced to spend beyond their revenues to reach the salary cap floor. Unless teams are contracted (which won't happen), the "owners" collective has to act on behalf of their struggling brethren. It seems to me that the mistake here is that the salary cap range was too small, but then you get into issues of competitive balance and the like.
There are lots of way to address this practical issue, like salary range limits, revenue sharing, trading cap space, non-guaranteed years...etc, all of which would make for interesting hockey discussion. I don't know what the best answer to all of this would ultimately be, but unfortunately that's not the contentious issue out there right now. The real sticking point thus far is how much "hockey related revenue" the players are entitled to. The answer to that question is independent of any other consideration or issue and will only be settled through hard negotiation, which takes time.
A professional sporting league is by nature a contrived situation where organizations collude for mutual benefit, while still competing against one another. It is inherently contradictory. Let the boys fight over who gets the bigger piece of pie. Until then, be wary of platitudes about the millionaires or billionaires being "greedy," or a hockey fan favorite---blame it all on Bettman.
Thursday, August 23, 2012
Flyers Still Shopping for Defensemen
I thought it might be good time to re-surface for a post. I don't have much to say about the Hartnell and Simmons extensions right now, and honestly I try to avoid CBA news. Just tell me when it's done.
Assuming we do begin an NHL season before January 1, the Flyers are still looking to improve their defense. They failed on Suter (always a long shot), and didn't land Weber (an admirable effort), and have since seen Meszaros and Lilja go down with offseason injuries. Even assuming the best for Bourdon and Gustafsson, the Flyers probably want some more experienced talent back there. I think they are looking at a few options.
Trade for a Veteran
-Jay Bouwmeester - Calgary, 28yo, 2 years left at $6.6m
J-Bo's image around the league has nosedived the last few seasons, and Calgary will probably listen to offers for him. He has failed to step up into the number 1 defensemen role, neither putting up big time points or being particularly tough defensively. As it is, he looks like a bigger, faster, Matt Carle. The Flyers obviously weren't willing to pay Matt Carle $6m+, so why trade assets for a similar player? Calgary will try to get as much as they can for him, if they trade him.
-Keith Ballard - Vancouver, 29yo, 3 years left at $4.2
Another offensive defenseman who has seen his stock drop in western canada recently. I haven't heard of the Flyers being interested, but it looks as if he's probably on the outs in Vancouver. He probably could be acquired relatively easily, though he missed the end of last season with head injuries as another negative.
Sign a Veteran UFA
-Michael Roszival - UFA, 33yo, $5m last year
Rosie has been a largely reliable NHL defenseman. He might be a good option if the price is right, but doesn't have the skills to warrant too much expense. His season ended last year on an ugly knee from Dustin Brown in the playoffs, so the Flyers would need to verify his health too.
-Carlo Calaiacovo - UFA, 29yo, $2.125m last year
A decent player, but has trouble staying healthy. Injuries completed derailed his future in Toronto, and has averaged a little less than 70 games a season in St. Louis. Another "if the price is right" potential signing.
Acquire a Promising Young Defenseman
-Nick Leddy - Chicago, 21yo, 1 year left at $1.116m
I heard Leddy's name come up around the Flyers on twitter. Not sure how much there was too that, but it's plausible. Leddy as a first round pick in 2009, and he became a key defenseman for the Hawks this year in his first full NHL season. Undersized, but a good skater with lots of offensive ability. 37 points last year with lots of PP time, but a -12. Chicago may be asking for a lot for him.
-John Carlson - Washington, 22yo, RFA
Another name I've heard the Flyers may have interest in. A first round pick in 2008, he's got good size and scored 9 goals for the Caps last year. Like Leddy, also a very poor +/- rating last year. He probably has high-end potential in the NHL. Is there a way for the Flyers to wrestle him away from the Caps though?
-PK Subban - Montreal, 23yo, RFA
Yet another young puck-rushing defenseman I've heard the Flyers like. He has rubbed a lot in the league the wrong with questionable hits or generally "disrespectful" behavior, but on the ice I think he's a very exciting player. He's still trying to bang out a new contract with Montreal, and apparently isn't willing to entertain offer sheets from other teams. He might be a non-option for the Flyers.
Personally, I would not trade a for a veteran defenseman. I would sniff around those young guns, but likely settle for something like signing Rosie or Colaiacovo to a short term deal
Assuming we do begin an NHL season before January 1, the Flyers are still looking to improve their defense. They failed on Suter (always a long shot), and didn't land Weber (an admirable effort), and have since seen Meszaros and Lilja go down with offseason injuries. Even assuming the best for Bourdon and Gustafsson, the Flyers probably want some more experienced talent back there. I think they are looking at a few options.
Trade for a Veteran
-Jay Bouwmeester - Calgary, 28yo, 2 years left at $6.6m
J-Bo's image around the league has nosedived the last few seasons, and Calgary will probably listen to offers for him. He has failed to step up into the number 1 defensemen role, neither putting up big time points or being particularly tough defensively. As it is, he looks like a bigger, faster, Matt Carle. The Flyers obviously weren't willing to pay Matt Carle $6m+, so why trade assets for a similar player? Calgary will try to get as much as they can for him, if they trade him.
-Keith Ballard - Vancouver, 29yo, 3 years left at $4.2
Another offensive defenseman who has seen his stock drop in western canada recently. I haven't heard of the Flyers being interested, but it looks as if he's probably on the outs in Vancouver. He probably could be acquired relatively easily, though he missed the end of last season with head injuries as another negative.
Sign a Veteran UFA
-Michael Roszival - UFA, 33yo, $5m last year
Rosie has been a largely reliable NHL defenseman. He might be a good option if the price is right, but doesn't have the skills to warrant too much expense. His season ended last year on an ugly knee from Dustin Brown in the playoffs, so the Flyers would need to verify his health too.
-Carlo Calaiacovo - UFA, 29yo, $2.125m last year
A decent player, but has trouble staying healthy. Injuries completed derailed his future in Toronto, and has averaged a little less than 70 games a season in St. Louis. Another "if the price is right" potential signing.
Acquire a Promising Young Defenseman
-Nick Leddy - Chicago, 21yo, 1 year left at $1.116m
I heard Leddy's name come up around the Flyers on twitter. Not sure how much there was too that, but it's plausible. Leddy as a first round pick in 2009, and he became a key defenseman for the Hawks this year in his first full NHL season. Undersized, but a good skater with lots of offensive ability. 37 points last year with lots of PP time, but a -12. Chicago may be asking for a lot for him.
-John Carlson - Washington, 22yo, RFA
Another name I've heard the Flyers may have interest in. A first round pick in 2008, he's got good size and scored 9 goals for the Caps last year. Like Leddy, also a very poor +/- rating last year. He probably has high-end potential in the NHL. Is there a way for the Flyers to wrestle him away from the Caps though?
-PK Subban - Montreal, 23yo, RFA
Yet another young puck-rushing defenseman I've heard the Flyers like. He has rubbed a lot in the league the wrong with questionable hits or generally "disrespectful" behavior, but on the ice I think he's a very exciting player. He's still trying to bang out a new contract with Montreal, and apparently isn't willing to entertain offer sheets from other teams. He might be a non-option for the Flyers.
Personally, I would not trade a for a veteran defenseman. I would sniff around those young guns, but likely settle for something like signing Rosie or Colaiacovo to a short term deal
Monday, July 23, 2012
The Flyers Godfather
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| "Make them an offer they can't refuse." |
For starters, Weber visited the Flyers (and the Rangers) recently, and the Flyers entered serious trade negotiations with Nashville. Reportedly, Weber decided Philadelphia was where he wanted to be, and he and his agent made that clear to Nashville.
The entertaining part to me is Ed Snider's involvement. For one, a team can't offer a contract like the Flyers did to Weber without ownership approval or encouragement. In the case of Snider, it's probably encouragement. Two, supposedly Snider himself gave Weber private tours of the Flyers facilities, including ordering everyone to immediately vacate the premises for his private tour and private meal in a back room. This will remind Flyers fans of Snider's courtship of Bryzgalov, using Snider's private jet.
In trade talks, Nashville wanted Couturier AND Schenn, plus other parts. Obviously, the Flyers balked. Not only did the Flyers balk at that demand, they threw it back in Nashville's face with a huge offer sheet. The prevailing wisdom is that an offer sheet would be practically a favor to Nashville because then they could simply match and thus avoid the complications of negotiating with Weber themselves, but perhaps the Flyers made the financial terms of the offer so onerous ($27m due in one calendar year) that Nashville ownership won't approve of matching.
There may yet still be a trade between Nashville and the Flyers regarding Weber, but the Flyers didn't like the way talks were going, and in turn made it a more dangerous game for Nashville.
It's hard to say what happens next, but I like Bill Meltzer's take on the situation here, which forcefully advocates a trade based on Voracek, Meszaros and first round picks as I speculated the other day.
On to Doan
After the Godfather successfully wined and dined Weber, it was widely reported that Doan visited. I actually wouldn't make too much of this, because Doan is basically on a tour of NHL team, including NY and Detroit, among others. I'm not sure if the Weber signing going through increases or decreases the likelihood of Doan signing in Philly, but Doan is clearly in no hurry to sign anywhere yet.
Thursday, July 19, 2012
Flyers Offer Weber HUMONGOUS Deal
It is days like today that I treasure being a Flyers fan. There's never a boring day, and nothing is out of the question. For my money no team is more fun to follow despite no cup for 35 years, but that's probably a question for another day/blog.
As for the matter at hand, the Flyers have offered Shea Weber a 14 year, ~$110m contract. This is the biggest contract in NHL history for a defensemen, and computes to a cap hit of ~$7.8 million. Nashville will now have 7 days to match, or alternatively work out a trade with the Flyers. If Nashville matches, all is said and done and Weber is guaranteed to be in Nashville next year. If Nashville declines, Nashville will receive 4 first round picks from the Flyers.
With those hard facts out of the way, the real intrigue is how this plays out. Upon some reflection, I believe this was ultimately the strongest play the Flyers could make to land Weber.
Weber has been something of a white whale for Flyers fans this offseason---a dominating defensemen who can comfortably fill the shoes of Chris Pronger. I have previously speculated that the Flyers were not in the best position to land Weber, because Nashville will pull out all the stops to sign their franchise player, and the Flyers have already traded away two key trading chips in JVR and Bobrovsky. I have been among those believing "don't offer-sheet Weber because Nashville will match anything," but this was the best option available to the Flyers at the moment. Because of the Flyers lack of other assets, they would not fare well in open trade bidding process, in my opinion.
By signing Weber to this offer sheet, the Flyers have shut out all other teams from the Weber hunt. If Nashville matches, they can't trade him for one year, and he will likely be in Nashville for several years. The Flyers now have exclusivity in trade dialogues with Nashville regarding Weber. It also has to happen within the next 7 days, so the Flyers have accelerated the timeline.
Of course the simplest course of action is merely for Nashville to match, and then there's nothing to talk about. All things being equal, I'm sure Nashville was prepared to offer Weber a long-term deal with a cap hit of ~$8m. What gives Flyers fans hope here is their deal reportedly calls for $26m in the first year alone. Can Nashville swallow that? Mind you that Nashville's entire franchise is only worth $163m, and they only have $40m committed to the entire roster next year. Nashville is required to spend $14m on SOMEBODY this offseason to get to the cap floor at $54m, but the way this deal is structured, their actual, IRL payroll this season would be at least $72m. Whether or not they can handle $26m to Weber next season (and $56m over the next 3 years total) is basically a business decision.
To keep the conversation going, let's assume they can't, and earnestly talk trade with the Flyers. Per the RFA offer sheet rules, the trade value is pegged at 4 first round picks. This should be acceptable to the Flyers, considering they traded essentially 3 first round picks and a 3rd for Pronger a few years ago. Now Pronger is one of the best defensemen of his generation, but he was about to turn 35, and his days as a Norris candidate were clearly behind him. Weber is 26, entering his prime, and has been the Norris runner-up the last 2 seasons.
Nashville, however, will probably want something other than picks to show for the sudden departure of their franchise player. What do the Flyers have to offer? I would start with Voracek and Meszaros. Mesz can play 20+ minutes a night for Nashville, and is likely the defensemen the Flyers would soonest trade with their sudden logjam of defensemen. Voracek I like as a complimentary top 6 winger, though he's probably a 60-70 point player going forward. Also, he is still not signed anyway.
Even assuming Nashville will take those two, there needs to be more. First round picks are a good sweetener here. The Flyers recent first round selection, Scott Laughton, could also be included. The Flyers turned some heads picking this kid higher than most expected him to go, but he left a lot of observers impressed at the Flyers recently-concluded prospect camp.
Lastly, there is the possibility of trading Schenn and Couturier. I really hate to think about this. For me, Cooter is the best prospect the Flyers have had since Lindros. His game is so complete, it's amazing, and it would really pain me to trade him for anyone. Schenn is also a very promising player, who could break out big time this year. Previously I would've said 'maybe' to trading Schenn for (and only for) Weber, but now Jagr and JVR are gone, and Luke Schenn is in. This makes Schenn less likely to be traded away now.
I will stop here, rather than ramble on endlessly. Overall, I think this maneuver gave the Flyers the best chance at landing Weber, but it's far from guaranteed Nashville lets him get away. If I had to guess I feel like Nashville finds a way to keep him, but all bets are off. The takeaway, however, is that by getting this offer sheet signed, the Flyers have promoted themselves from longshots on landing Weber, to having a very good shot at him as well as blocking potential rivals (mainly the Rangers) from acquiring him.
IF the Flyers were to trade away Voracek, Mesz, and picks/prospects, this is what Flyers fans are looking at:
It's nice getting that franchise defensemen, but for all the goals the Flyers scored last year, that forward group is THIN. They really have no highly skilled winger to speak of, as Jagr, JVR and Voracek were ALL of their skill wingers last season. At least there is still enough cap space to add a decent forward or two.
As for the matter at hand, the Flyers have offered Shea Weber a 14 year, ~$110m contract. This is the biggest contract in NHL history for a defensemen, and computes to a cap hit of ~$7.8 million. Nashville will now have 7 days to match, or alternatively work out a trade with the Flyers. If Nashville matches, all is said and done and Weber is guaranteed to be in Nashville next year. If Nashville declines, Nashville will receive 4 first round picks from the Flyers.
With those hard facts out of the way, the real intrigue is how this plays out. Upon some reflection, I believe this was ultimately the strongest play the Flyers could make to land Weber.
Weber has been something of a white whale for Flyers fans this offseason---a dominating defensemen who can comfortably fill the shoes of Chris Pronger. I have previously speculated that the Flyers were not in the best position to land Weber, because Nashville will pull out all the stops to sign their franchise player, and the Flyers have already traded away two key trading chips in JVR and Bobrovsky. I have been among those believing "don't offer-sheet Weber because Nashville will match anything," but this was the best option available to the Flyers at the moment. Because of the Flyers lack of other assets, they would not fare well in open trade bidding process, in my opinion.
By signing Weber to this offer sheet, the Flyers have shut out all other teams from the Weber hunt. If Nashville matches, they can't trade him for one year, and he will likely be in Nashville for several years. The Flyers now have exclusivity in trade dialogues with Nashville regarding Weber. It also has to happen within the next 7 days, so the Flyers have accelerated the timeline.
Of course the simplest course of action is merely for Nashville to match, and then there's nothing to talk about. All things being equal, I'm sure Nashville was prepared to offer Weber a long-term deal with a cap hit of ~$8m. What gives Flyers fans hope here is their deal reportedly calls for $26m in the first year alone. Can Nashville swallow that? Mind you that Nashville's entire franchise is only worth $163m, and they only have $40m committed to the entire roster next year. Nashville is required to spend $14m on SOMEBODY this offseason to get to the cap floor at $54m, but the way this deal is structured, their actual, IRL payroll this season would be at least $72m. Whether or not they can handle $26m to Weber next season (and $56m over the next 3 years total) is basically a business decision.
To keep the conversation going, let's assume they can't, and earnestly talk trade with the Flyers. Per the RFA offer sheet rules, the trade value is pegged at 4 first round picks. This should be acceptable to the Flyers, considering they traded essentially 3 first round picks and a 3rd for Pronger a few years ago. Now Pronger is one of the best defensemen of his generation, but he was about to turn 35, and his days as a Norris candidate were clearly behind him. Weber is 26, entering his prime, and has been the Norris runner-up the last 2 seasons.
Nashville, however, will probably want something other than picks to show for the sudden departure of their franchise player. What do the Flyers have to offer? I would start with Voracek and Meszaros. Mesz can play 20+ minutes a night for Nashville, and is likely the defensemen the Flyers would soonest trade with their sudden logjam of defensemen. Voracek I like as a complimentary top 6 winger, though he's probably a 60-70 point player going forward. Also, he is still not signed anyway.
Even assuming Nashville will take those two, there needs to be more. First round picks are a good sweetener here. The Flyers recent first round selection, Scott Laughton, could also be included. The Flyers turned some heads picking this kid higher than most expected him to go, but he left a lot of observers impressed at the Flyers recently-concluded prospect camp.
Lastly, there is the possibility of trading Schenn and Couturier. I really hate to think about this. For me, Cooter is the best prospect the Flyers have had since Lindros. His game is so complete, it's amazing, and it would really pain me to trade him for anyone. Schenn is also a very promising player, who could break out big time this year. Previously I would've said 'maybe' to trading Schenn for (and only for) Weber, but now Jagr and JVR are gone, and Luke Schenn is in. This makes Schenn less likely to be traded away now.
I will stop here, rather than ramble on endlessly. Overall, I think this maneuver gave the Flyers the best chance at landing Weber, but it's far from guaranteed Nashville lets him get away. If I had to guess I feel like Nashville finds a way to keep him, but all bets are off. The takeaway, however, is that by getting this offer sheet signed, the Flyers have promoted themselves from longshots on landing Weber, to having a very good shot at him as well as blocking potential rivals (mainly the Rangers) from acquiring him.
IF the Flyers were to trade away Voracek, Mesz, and picks/prospects, this is what Flyers fans are looking at:
It's nice getting that franchise defensemen, but for all the goals the Flyers scored last year, that forward group is THIN. They really have no highly skilled winger to speak of, as Jagr, JVR and Voracek were ALL of their skill wingers last season. At least there is still enough cap space to add a decent forward or two.
Friday, July 6, 2012
A Disappointing Week?
I've been patiently waiting for things to play out, and now most of the big questions have been answered. So...
Parise and Suter
-The Flyers reportedly made massive bids to both Parise and Suter, possibly the biggest offer of any team in terms of dollars and years (over 10 years and over $100m). Honestly, to my relief, neither bid was accepted. All-in-all, their decision to sign jointly in Minnesota is nearly ideal for the Flyers.
I really like Parise's game, and by all reports Suter is a quality top pair defensemen. Still, I don't think it made sense for the Flyers to be saddled with these deals, which would be overpayments unless these guys are MVP or Norris candidates. The Flyers getting either of these guys was always a longshot, but my more realistic concern was Parise signing with the Pens (though I have to say, I'm not sure it was even wise for the Penguins to commit $25m to three forwards for the next 10 years in Malkin, Crosby and Parise). Now the Flyers can breathe a sigh of relief, with both players going to the Western conference rather than strengthening a rival. The real losers of these shenanigans were Detroit and Nashville, who fell short in pursuing Suter and the obvious Suter-Plan-B, Matt Carle.
Carle Signs in TB
-Speaking of Carle, he got a long contract from TB. Flyers fans' initial reaction to this was that the Flyers blew it, by futilely chasing Suter and letting Carle get away. I'm not sure I quite see it that way.
For one, it's not entirely tough luck the Flyers had not already signed him. The fact is, they prioritized signing Grossmann and Coburn over signing Carle. Two, the Flyers took a very strange stance, publicly touting that they believed they could sign Carle for below market value.
For months, I have written here repeatedly that if he got to free agency, someone was going to offer Carle $5m+ a year. The signing of Wideman last week removed all doubt, and evidently caused Carle to reconsider any verbal agreement with the Flyers. My bottom line is this; you can't fight the market with UFAs. Once Carle decided to at least listen to free agent offers, the Flyers had no shot. He was going to wait for Suter to sign, then get a big offer. The Flyers pursuit of Suter made no difference, as by then Carle was in UFA mode and Carle was waiting for Suter before he would sign with anyone (including the Flyers). At that point, the Flyers were not going to come close to TB's offer of $5.5m x 6 years.
Realistically, the Flyers had two options. Sign Carle to ~$5m contract a few months ago and let either Grossmann or Coburn be exposed to UFA offers, or do what they did with Carle. They chose the latter, and I'm not sure I would've done it differently.
Jagr Goes to Dallas
-Another effect of the exploding UFA market this season was Jagr getting a $4.5m deal from Dallas. Again, there is no way the Flyers would offer that much. I would've liked to see the Flyers resign him for something at or below last year's $3.3m contract, but again, you can't fight the market.
As it was, Jagr left and there was a lovefest on twitter between Jagr and his now ex-teammates.
Jaromir Jagr @68Jagr
-Just to everybody knows:Max Talbot is the most underrated and underpaid player in NHL.Holmgren did a great job signing him last season.
-To@28CGiroux:Keep working and soon you will be the best player in NHL like I said.To@Hartsy19:work hard and you will score 40.
Matt Read @MReader24
Was a pleasure play some puck with the legend himself@68Jagr. Best of luck in Dallas Mr. Positive#beauty#alwayssmiling
Oh well, I enjoyed having him around last year.
Gervais and Fedotenko
-Without digging to deeply to analyze these signings, they seem like good ideas to me. Fedotenko's a very experienced vet who can play any forward position and have the full trust of the coach. The cap hit is low, and there's basically no risk in a 1-year contract.
Regarding Gervais, another low risk move that could blossom nicely. He's not going to play many minutes, but with a right-handed shot and his strength being puck movement, he could slot in nicely. If he does have a bounceback season, the Flyers have him under contract next year for super-cheap as well. Also, as an aside, Gervais and Talbot are apparently best buds, and Talbot will be Gervais's best man in his upcoming wedding.
The Picture
So merely assuming Voracek and Bourdon are signed, and the Flyers can use all of Pronger's LTIR allotment, this is the roster today:
That doesn't look too bad, but definitely not as strong as last year. Up front, JVR and Jagr are out, replaced by 3rd liner Fedotenko. In the back, Carle and his 20+ minutes are gone, replaced by Schenn and Gervais. Again, the Flyers are going to be relying on young players to improve and maintain a high level of play. Fortunately, the Flyers still have some flexibility here with ~$8m in cap space to use.
I like the Rick Tocchet plan, which may already be in effect; "If I were Flyers , I would have my attention on Doan and a couple of second tier d-man ...stay with the young core and grab Weber next year".
Doan and Weber would be big for this team, though whether either goes anywhere is up in the air. Nashville will desperately want to keep Weber, but in one year he can do whatever he wants. Doan wants to stay, provided ownership in Phoenix is stabilized.
Personally, I make aggressive offers to Doan for 2 or 3 years. Hopefully higher dollars can substitute for that 4th year he wants, and that other teams will give him.
Regarding Weber, best case scenario for the Flyers is that he plays one more year in Nashville, then goes UFA. The Flyers don't have much left to trade--I wouldn't trade Cooter under any circumstances, and I might've traded Schenn for someone like Weber, but that was before JVR and Jagr were gone. The forwards corps now can't afford to lose Schenn.
The wisest thing for Nashville to do is offer Weber a huge contract, and if he doesn't take it, trade him. They can't afford to lose Weber next year like they lost Suter this year. Unfortunately, this makes it pretty hard on the Flyers to acquire him, in my opinion.
Monday, June 25, 2012
Draft Weekend Recap
Indeed, the pieces on the board began to move this weekend for the Flyers. The rumors were getting crazy on Thursday, and the Flyer were supposedly in on everyone; Nash, Parise, Ryan, Suter, Weber, and trading up in the draft. Ultimately, the Flyers made far less daring moves.
JVR
The move that was so heavily rumored in March finally came about. For starters, I am on board with trading JVR. He seems like a good kid, and he has the talent, I'm just not sure I see him producing consistently. Often the only difference between a journey-man goal scorer and a top line allstar is consistency, and I think JVR will always be a streaky player. He's not effective playing on the outside, and he's simply not a banger at heart. Either way, I've previously written about his development here and here.
As for the particulars on this trade, I wrote about this in March, and not much has changed since...
The Flyers top need was a physical dman, and they now have a promising young one. A good, simple, hockey trade without a clear "winner" in my opinion.
Bobrovsky
Like JVR, I was ready to see Bob go. I also wrote about this the other day. Either way, I think his most likely career path is as a backup or journeyman starter. He will now get a chance to prove himself in Columbus that he won't get here.
The Flyers should be happy with the trade return for him. I think his reputation around the league has sunk a little bit over the last several months, and there was no way the Flyers were going to get the kind of return the Caps got for Varlamov last year---ultimately a fairly high first round pick in a deal that shocked a lot around the league. Still, to salvage a mid-second round pick and two 4th rounders is a good return. The Flyers definitely benefitted from other teams snatching up backup goalie candidates in the previous week, apparently allowing the Flyers to choose between Winnpeg's offer of the #39 pick, or the #45 pick and two 4th rounders from Columbus.
Incidentally, the Flyers drafted a goalie with the #45 pick.
Draft Picks
I will not pretend to know much about who the Flyers drafted. Regarding their first round pick, it was mildly disappointing to see them take a center without high-end potential when they have rarely picked in the first round at all the last few years and desperately need defensemen in the system. On the other hand, this player appears very likely to actually graduate to the NHL, and the Flyers have been amazing at picking winners late in the first round (Gagne, Williams, Giroux). Scouts say this is a very poor draft class as well.
What Next?
First, this is how I see the Flyers cap situation;
To complete this, I guessed at a value for Voracek, and plugged in a backup goalie that may not be accurate, but the salary should be. I also plugged in Carle at $4.25, although I find it hard to believe he will sign for so little, but people keep throwing it out there. The takeaway is that the Flyers could have about $6 million or more to throw at a top-6 forward.
I think their pursuit of Nash is now dead. JVR and Bob were their two major trading chips to get Nash, and they have been cashed in. Personally, I think the Columbus GM is overplaying his hand, and as teams like the Flyers move on, the offers for Nash will now begin to get worse. I wasn't a huge fan of Nash to Philly anyway.
The two major targets the Flyers could go after is Parise or Ryan. Again, the Flyers don't have many assets left to trade for Ryan, so I'm not seeing it. Regarding Parise, I think the Flyers have a lot of interest and will make an offer. I have my doubts about how they'll fare in a bidding war on the open market, however.
The conservative course is to resign Jagr and pick up a role-player for the bottom two lines for about $5 million combined. This is probably the wisest course in my opinion. Granted, maybe the Flyers can't resign Carle or Voracek (silence is ominous regarding his extension, I think), and then all this needs to be re-evaluated.
JVR
The move that was so heavily rumored in March finally came about. For starters, I am on board with trading JVR. He seems like a good kid, and he has the talent, I'm just not sure I see him producing consistently. Often the only difference between a journey-man goal scorer and a top line allstar is consistency, and I think JVR will always be a streaky player. He's not effective playing on the outside, and he's simply not a banger at heart. Either way, I've previously written about his development here and here.
As for the particulars on this trade, I wrote about this in March, and not much has changed since...
On paper, the trade makes a lot of sense. It is a like-for-like trade:http://mostlyflyers.blogspot.com/2012/01/jvr-for-luke-schenn.html
-both players were very high draft picks; JVR #2 in 2007 and Schenn #5 in 2008
-both players have made some noise in the NHL, with Schenn immediately joining the big club as an 18 year old and JVR turning a lot of heads in the playoffs last year
-both players may be seen as underwhelming in their development, with Schenn's ice time down this year and JVR not building off last year's playoffs
-both players are signed to manageable long term contracts
The Flyers need defensemen, the Leafs need size up front. The trade is merely teams trying to address an organizational need while holding their salary, youth and long term potential constant.
All that said, the devil will be in details. Flyers fans expect Schenn and other goodies for JVR, and Leafs fan vice-versa. A rumor I read yesterday is that it will be the Flyers who have to sweeten the pot to complete the deal, and the Leafs want Matt Read.
No thanks on that one. If that's the case I walk away.
The Flyers top need was a physical dman, and they now have a promising young one. A good, simple, hockey trade without a clear "winner" in my opinion.
Bobrovsky
Like JVR, I was ready to see Bob go. I also wrote about this the other day. Either way, I think his most likely career path is as a backup or journeyman starter. He will now get a chance to prove himself in Columbus that he won't get here.
The Flyers should be happy with the trade return for him. I think his reputation around the league has sunk a little bit over the last several months, and there was no way the Flyers were going to get the kind of return the Caps got for Varlamov last year---ultimately a fairly high first round pick in a deal that shocked a lot around the league. Still, to salvage a mid-second round pick and two 4th rounders is a good return. The Flyers definitely benefitted from other teams snatching up backup goalie candidates in the previous week, apparently allowing the Flyers to choose between Winnpeg's offer of the #39 pick, or the #45 pick and two 4th rounders from Columbus.
Incidentally, the Flyers drafted a goalie with the #45 pick.
Draft Picks
I will not pretend to know much about who the Flyers drafted. Regarding their first round pick, it was mildly disappointing to see them take a center without high-end potential when they have rarely picked in the first round at all the last few years and desperately need defensemen in the system. On the other hand, this player appears very likely to actually graduate to the NHL, and the Flyers have been amazing at picking winners late in the first round (Gagne, Williams, Giroux). Scouts say this is a very poor draft class as well.
What Next?
First, this is how I see the Flyers cap situation;
To complete this, I guessed at a value for Voracek, and plugged in a backup goalie that may not be accurate, but the salary should be. I also plugged in Carle at $4.25, although I find it hard to believe he will sign for so little, but people keep throwing it out there. The takeaway is that the Flyers could have about $6 million or more to throw at a top-6 forward.
I think their pursuit of Nash is now dead. JVR and Bob were their two major trading chips to get Nash, and they have been cashed in. Personally, I think the Columbus GM is overplaying his hand, and as teams like the Flyers move on, the offers for Nash will now begin to get worse. I wasn't a huge fan of Nash to Philly anyway.
The two major targets the Flyers could go after is Parise or Ryan. Again, the Flyers don't have many assets left to trade for Ryan, so I'm not seeing it. Regarding Parise, I think the Flyers have a lot of interest and will make an offer. I have my doubts about how they'll fare in a bidding war on the open market, however.
The conservative course is to resign Jagr and pick up a role-player for the bottom two lines for about $5 million combined. This is probably the wisest course in my opinion. Granted, maybe the Flyers can't resign Carle or Voracek (silence is ominous regarding his extension, I think), and then all this needs to be re-evaluated.
Wednesday, June 20, 2012
Rumor Roundup
Things are about to get interesting this offseason. The draft is Friday, and free agency starts July 1. The draft is the most likely time for offseason trades to occur (and the Flyers have a well-established history of doing so), so the pieces on the table could start moving then. Also, Holmgren has not gone to much trouble denying that he will be looking to improve the team this offseason. With that in mind, here are some of the items to track regarding the Flyers.
Jagr - The on-again, off-again re-signing took another turn this week, as Darren Dreger reported that Jagr will test free agency. Some have said the only reason the Flyers haven't signed him already is tagging space, but once July 1 hits and the offers roll in, all bets are off. I read a post on a message board yesterday (I know, I know....) but it sounded completely reasonable---that the Flyers have a deal on the table that Jagr will sign, but he wants to wait and see if a contender will give him better playing time guarantees. Such a contingency is completely consistent with this saga. In the end, I don't think there are many NHL teams out there willing to give Jagr that assurance, but all it takes is one...
Carle - Carle is in a similar boat to Jagr---Holmgren keeps saying he is confident the team can sign him, and "at below market rate" no less. Carle has said he prefers to stay in Philadelphia, but how much of a discount will he accept to stay? The above quote is as close to an NHL team will come to admitting they are lowballing a player, and I have maintained all season that someone will throw $5+ million at Carle. Elliote Friedman also said that Carle may prefer to go west, and be closer to his home state of Alaska.
Bobrovsky - This is more of an under-the-radar piece, but there is some writing on the wall that Bobrovsky's time in Philly is up. He doesn't seem well suited to back up Bryz, he will be a UFA after this season, and a team with needs in goal might be willing to give him some playing time. With Vokoun signing in Pittsburgh, TB trading for Lindback, and Harding re-signing in Minny, the options for a secondary goalie are diminishing. This could cause a few teams to turn to Bob. Alone, I don't think he will command much in return, but he could be part of a bigger deal.
Draft - It is being widely reported that the Flyers are looking to move up in the draft, probably into the top 10. I am ignorant of the prospects this year, though word is that it's generally not a very good draft class this year. The only thing I'll say here, is that an asset traded to move up in the draft is an asset that cannot be used in a trade to strengthen the roster this year.
Suter - I think the Flyers would still love to have Suter, and they will make him an offer, but all the signs and buzz point to him going elsewhere. I still say Detroit.
Weber - I'm still holding out hope that the Flyers could land Weber this offseason. There are trade packages the Flyers can create out that Nashville should be receptive to, but if Suter walks away, they will pull out all the stops to get Weber signed long term. Really the only hope is here that Weber simply refuses to sign long term despite Nashville throwing big dollars at him, and Nashville decides to get what it can for him before he becomes a UFA next offseason.
Nash - The reports of the Flyers interest in Nash simply won't die, which speaks volumes. There's not much more to say here, other than DON'T TRADE COOTER, period. The smart money says the Rangers, who have the best assets for Columbus and the will to get it done.
Parise - If the Flyers don't end up with Nash, reports have floated around of the Flyers have big time interest in Parise, who will be a UFA. I thought Parise looked excellent in the playoffs this year, and there will be a bidding war for him this offseason. He has stated his preference for staying in NJ, but the Devils are in dire financial straits and may not be able to keep close to market rates. Parise has also stated he would never sign with the Rangers out of respect for the Devils, and that may preclude other Atlantic division teams like the Flyers. Either way, he's a great player, but I'm not sure if the Flyers need another small forward..
Ryan - Rounding out the big name wings, Bobby Ryan is back on the trade market. A top-notch young power winger, Anaheim will be asking for A LOT. I am doubtful the Flyers can, or should, meet Anaheim's asking price, despite Ryan being a local kid with longtime ties to the Flyers organization.
Briere - Another under-the-radar item, Briere is a longshot for a trade, and the Flyers may have already received offers for him. Briere is 34 and has 3 years left at a cap hit of $6.5 million, however he is only actually due to be paid $12 (7, 3, 2) million over that span. Therefore, smaller market teams who have plenty of cap space see a $4m actual commitment to Briere, not a $6.5m cap commitment. Briere's regular seasons with the Flyers have been hit-and-miss, but he's been a huge playoff performer. He also has a NMC clause. In my opinion, the Flyers can only even consider this if they think Schenn and Cooter are both ready for prime time.
Rob Zombie - Rob Zombie reportedly wants to write and direct a movie about the 1974 Flyers. Wow.
Jagr - The on-again, off-again re-signing took another turn this week, as Darren Dreger reported that Jagr will test free agency. Some have said the only reason the Flyers haven't signed him already is tagging space, but once July 1 hits and the offers roll in, all bets are off. I read a post on a message board yesterday (I know, I know....) but it sounded completely reasonable---that the Flyers have a deal on the table that Jagr will sign, but he wants to wait and see if a contender will give him better playing time guarantees. Such a contingency is completely consistent with this saga. In the end, I don't think there are many NHL teams out there willing to give Jagr that assurance, but all it takes is one...
Carle - Carle is in a similar boat to Jagr---Holmgren keeps saying he is confident the team can sign him, and "at below market rate" no less. Carle has said he prefers to stay in Philadelphia, but how much of a discount will he accept to stay? The above quote is as close to an NHL team will come to admitting they are lowballing a player, and I have maintained all season that someone will throw $5+ million at Carle. Elliote Friedman also said that Carle may prefer to go west, and be closer to his home state of Alaska.
Bobrovsky - This is more of an under-the-radar piece, but there is some writing on the wall that Bobrovsky's time in Philly is up. He doesn't seem well suited to back up Bryz, he will be a UFA after this season, and a team with needs in goal might be willing to give him some playing time. With Vokoun signing in Pittsburgh, TB trading for Lindback, and Harding re-signing in Minny, the options for a secondary goalie are diminishing. This could cause a few teams to turn to Bob. Alone, I don't think he will command much in return, but he could be part of a bigger deal.
Draft - It is being widely reported that the Flyers are looking to move up in the draft, probably into the top 10. I am ignorant of the prospects this year, though word is that it's generally not a very good draft class this year. The only thing I'll say here, is that an asset traded to move up in the draft is an asset that cannot be used in a trade to strengthen the roster this year.
Suter - I think the Flyers would still love to have Suter, and they will make him an offer, but all the signs and buzz point to him going elsewhere. I still say Detroit.
Weber - I'm still holding out hope that the Flyers could land Weber this offseason. There are trade packages the Flyers can create out that Nashville should be receptive to, but if Suter walks away, they will pull out all the stops to get Weber signed long term. Really the only hope is here that Weber simply refuses to sign long term despite Nashville throwing big dollars at him, and Nashville decides to get what it can for him before he becomes a UFA next offseason.
Nash - The reports of the Flyers interest in Nash simply won't die, which speaks volumes. There's not much more to say here, other than DON'T TRADE COOTER, period. The smart money says the Rangers, who have the best assets for Columbus and the will to get it done.
Parise - If the Flyers don't end up with Nash, reports have floated around of the Flyers have big time interest in Parise, who will be a UFA. I thought Parise looked excellent in the playoffs this year, and there will be a bidding war for him this offseason. He has stated his preference for staying in NJ, but the Devils are in dire financial straits and may not be able to keep close to market rates. Parise has also stated he would never sign with the Rangers out of respect for the Devils, and that may preclude other Atlantic division teams like the Flyers. Either way, he's a great player, but I'm not sure if the Flyers need another small forward..
Ryan - Rounding out the big name wings, Bobby Ryan is back on the trade market. A top-notch young power winger, Anaheim will be asking for A LOT. I am doubtful the Flyers can, or should, meet Anaheim's asking price, despite Ryan being a local kid with longtime ties to the Flyers organization.
Briere - Another under-the-radar item, Briere is a longshot for a trade, and the Flyers may have already received offers for him. Briere is 34 and has 3 years left at a cap hit of $6.5 million, however he is only actually due to be paid $12 (7, 3, 2) million over that span. Therefore, smaller market teams who have plenty of cap space see a $4m actual commitment to Briere, not a $6.5m cap commitment. Briere's regular seasons with the Flyers have been hit-and-miss, but he's been a huge playoff performer. He also has a NMC clause. In my opinion, the Flyers can only even consider this if they think Schenn and Cooter are both ready for prime time.
Rob Zombie - Rob Zombie reportedly wants to write and direct a movie about the 1974 Flyers. Wow.
Monday, June 11, 2012
Offseason Preparations
I've had my little break, and the dust has settled after the playoff exit. Offseason grumblings are beginning to trickle out, so I'd like to make sense of it all.
Starting with the least speculative news, multiple reports last week indicated Jagr's first choice is to indeed resign with the Flyers, despite the indications that he was ready to move on fresh off the playoff loss. Talks with the Flyers are said to be progressing, with one rumor on twitter saying that an agreement is already reached.
Additionally, claims are that the Flyers will resign Carle too, at slightly below market rate. The twist to all this that the Flyers don't have the "tagging space" to sign them yet (basically, your payroll next year can't exceed this year's cap). As a result, the cap will rise to $70.3 million on July 1, and the Flyers will be free to sign these guys then. By that time however, Carle will officially be a free agent, and I still think someone throws $5+ million at him. Could that throw a wrench in the Flyers plans?
Either way, let's assume these signings both happen. Now I have heard NOTHING about Voracek resigning, but let's plug that in too. You get this picture.
*This is without the "bonus cushion." This means that for players like Schenn, his cap hit will be the full $3.11m until he misses a bonus benchmark. This will happen soon, but even so, this is the limit with which the Flyers must comply on opening day. If there is the "bonus cushion" this season, the Flyers can exceed the cap by such a bonus, but would be penalized if the players ultimately earned the bonus and send the Flyers over the cap.
Now ignore the lines, and I had to guess at contract values for Jagr, Voracek and Carle, but this should be more or less accurate. The main takeaway is that, making no other changes, merely resigning these guys leaves little cap space for other signings. This leaves the possibility of a plain vanilla offseason of resignings only, with no other acquisitions of note.
The Flyers rarely stand pat though, often pulling off trades at the draft. I'm not going to speculate on roster depth maneuvers, but there could be a few big pieces in play.
JVR-Nash Rumors
For one, Howard Eskin dropped this nugget yesterday; JVR is delaying having surgery, which could hold up a trade for Nash because the Flyers can't trade him if he isn't healthy. Now Eskin knows nothing about hockey in terms of analysis, but his information is good. He usually only says something about the Flyers when he gets good info.
JVR was on the Flyers post-season surgery list, and unusually (but not shockingly), he has not had the surgery yet. The Flyers have already denied the insinuation that there is any intent on the part of JVR to delay his surgery, and that does seem like a bombastic accusation.
Putting aside the question of intent by JVR, but taking the underlying issue of his health holding up a trade as true, this transaction would return to a few themes. Go back to the trade deadline, and the Flyers were players for Nash. It was left at, and I quote Darren Dreger, "Price too high for Flyers(at moment) for Nash. May re-engage later. JVR,Bobrovski, Schenn or Couturier believed to be part of asking price." Also, this would be the second time a JVR injury is seen as holding up a deal, as he was out with a concussion in February when the Luke Schenn trade rumors were everywhere.
I've already evaluated a JVR-Nash trade, but my stance remains the same---JVR will never be the player Nash is, but Nash's best days are behind him. JVR and Bob I'd be happy to trade, but I would not include Schenn or Cooter in the trade for a diminishing star with a big cap hit like Nash. We'll see if there's anything to this.
Nashville Defensemen
Putting aside Nash, the Flyers real need is top-end defensemen. The two names being thrown around are Suter and Tobias Enstrom. Enstrom is basically a younger Timonen, but he has one year left on his contract (at a low cap it), and would require a trade to acquire. Suter will be a free agent on July 1, and Nashville is trying hard to resign him.
I've seen reports that the Suter doesn't want to sign with the Flyers, but even assuming those are incorrect, I doubt we'll see this signing. For one, Nashville has the cap space and will pull out all the stops to keep him. Second, everyone knows Detroit wants him, and Detroit has just seen Lidstrom retire and is letting Stuart go. I think Suter stays in Nashville or goes to Detroit.
This situation creates a second domino--Shea Weber. He is my grand hope for the Flyers this offseason. A full-on replacement for Chris Pronger. Weber is a restricted free agent, so practically this means a trade. JVR again? (A JVR+Mesz+picks seems to be a popular rumor. I'd take that trade FWIW.) The wrinkle here is that Weber and Suter are the spine of Nashville's team, and despite their limited budget, I can't see any way they let both Weber and Suter go. Despite my fantasies, I think the most likely scenario is Suter to Detroit, Weber staying in Nashville.
Bobrovsky
Getting back to Bobrovsky, the Flyers could try to save some cap space but getting a cheaper backup. Bob's future prospects in Philadelphia are waning, though I was an advocate of trading him last offseason. I don't think Bob has nearly as much trading value as Flyers fans like to believe, but the time might be right to trade him anyway and bring in an experienced number 2.
Starting with the least speculative news, multiple reports last week indicated Jagr's first choice is to indeed resign with the Flyers, despite the indications that he was ready to move on fresh off the playoff loss. Talks with the Flyers are said to be progressing, with one rumor on twitter saying that an agreement is already reached.
Additionally, claims are that the Flyers will resign Carle too, at slightly below market rate. The twist to all this that the Flyers don't have the "tagging space" to sign them yet (basically, your payroll next year can't exceed this year's cap). As a result, the cap will rise to $70.3 million on July 1, and the Flyers will be free to sign these guys then. By that time however, Carle will officially be a free agent, and I still think someone throws $5+ million at him. Could that throw a wrench in the Flyers plans?
Either way, let's assume these signings both happen. Now I have heard NOTHING about Voracek resigning, but let's plug that in too. You get this picture.
*This is without the "bonus cushion." This means that for players like Schenn, his cap hit will be the full $3.11m until he misses a bonus benchmark. This will happen soon, but even so, this is the limit with which the Flyers must comply on opening day. If there is the "bonus cushion" this season, the Flyers can exceed the cap by such a bonus, but would be penalized if the players ultimately earned the bonus and send the Flyers over the cap.
Now ignore the lines, and I had to guess at contract values for Jagr, Voracek and Carle, but this should be more or less accurate. The main takeaway is that, making no other changes, merely resigning these guys leaves little cap space for other signings. This leaves the possibility of a plain vanilla offseason of resignings only, with no other acquisitions of note.
The Flyers rarely stand pat though, often pulling off trades at the draft. I'm not going to speculate on roster depth maneuvers, but there could be a few big pieces in play.
JVR-Nash Rumors
For one, Howard Eskin dropped this nugget yesterday; JVR is delaying having surgery, which could hold up a trade for Nash because the Flyers can't trade him if he isn't healthy. Now Eskin knows nothing about hockey in terms of analysis, but his information is good. He usually only says something about the Flyers when he gets good info.
JVR was on the Flyers post-season surgery list, and unusually (but not shockingly), he has not had the surgery yet. The Flyers have already denied the insinuation that there is any intent on the part of JVR to delay his surgery, and that does seem like a bombastic accusation.
Putting aside the question of intent by JVR, but taking the underlying issue of his health holding up a trade as true, this transaction would return to a few themes. Go back to the trade deadline, and the Flyers were players for Nash. It was left at, and I quote Darren Dreger, "Price too high for Flyers(at moment) for Nash. May re-engage later. JVR,Bobrovski, Schenn or Couturier believed to be part of asking price." Also, this would be the second time a JVR injury is seen as holding up a deal, as he was out with a concussion in February when the Luke Schenn trade rumors were everywhere.
I've already evaluated a JVR-Nash trade, but my stance remains the same---JVR will never be the player Nash is, but Nash's best days are behind him. JVR and Bob I'd be happy to trade, but I would not include Schenn or Cooter in the trade for a diminishing star with a big cap hit like Nash. We'll see if there's anything to this.
Nashville Defensemen
Putting aside Nash, the Flyers real need is top-end defensemen. The two names being thrown around are Suter and Tobias Enstrom. Enstrom is basically a younger Timonen, but he has one year left on his contract (at a low cap it), and would require a trade to acquire. Suter will be a free agent on July 1, and Nashville is trying hard to resign him.
I've seen reports that the Suter doesn't want to sign with the Flyers, but even assuming those are incorrect, I doubt we'll see this signing. For one, Nashville has the cap space and will pull out all the stops to keep him. Second, everyone knows Detroit wants him, and Detroit has just seen Lidstrom retire and is letting Stuart go. I think Suter stays in Nashville or goes to Detroit.
This situation creates a second domino--Shea Weber. He is my grand hope for the Flyers this offseason. A full-on replacement for Chris Pronger. Weber is a restricted free agent, so practically this means a trade. JVR again? (A JVR+Mesz+picks seems to be a popular rumor. I'd take that trade FWIW.) The wrinkle here is that Weber and Suter are the spine of Nashville's team, and despite their limited budget, I can't see any way they let both Weber and Suter go. Despite my fantasies, I think the most likely scenario is Suter to Detroit, Weber staying in Nashville.
Bobrovsky
Getting back to Bobrovsky, the Flyers could try to save some cap space but getting a cheaper backup. Bob's future prospects in Philadelphia are waning, though I was an advocate of trading him last offseason. I don't think Bob has nearly as much trading value as Flyers fans like to believe, but the time might be right to trade him anyway and bring in an experienced number 2.
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Carter and Richards Play for the Cup
It is a perfect nightmare for many Flyers fans to see players that the Flyers happily casted off have a chance to win the cup elsewhere just one year later. Rationally, the fact that Richards and Carter ended up in the same place and now may win the cup before the Flyers says absolutely nothing at all about the wisdom of the big trades last summer, however.
I think some Flyers fans are getting carried away in criticizing Richards and Carter, acting as if they were a cancer on the team. That is gossip, conjecture, and revisionist history run amok. It seems to me that the Carter trade was a simple hockey trade, and a very good one at that. The Richards trade was a little less straightforward, but seemed to be a personality makeover to team leadership. That trade's success remains less clear.
Before saying anything else, you need to take a step back and look at how Carter and Richards actually performed this season.
Carter: 55gp (for CLB and LA), 21 goals, 13 assists, -13.
Richards: 74 gp, 18 goals, 26 assists, +3
34 and 44 points? Flyers fans would be going batshit crazy if those players stayed on the Flyers squad this year and produced those numbers.
So what about the playoffs?
Carter: 14gp, 4 goals, 5 assists, +2
Richards: 14gp, 4 goals, 7 assists, +3
I think the Kings are pretty satisfied with what they are getting from Richards these playoffs. He's playing in a mostly defensive role, and chipping in some points along the way. This is more or less what he did with the Flyers, and his points/game is nearly identical as his time in Philly (with Flyers 50/63=0.794, with Kings 11/14=0.786).
Regarding Carter, a big knock on him in Philly were his playoff disappearances (21/47=0.447 points/game). His 9 points in the 14 games seem to imply a different level in performance, though that number is inflated by a relatively unimpressive hat track. Take away that one game, and he has a line of 1 goal, 5 assists in the 13 games (0.462 points/game). He has actually gone pointless in 9 of 14 playoff games. Again, this is pretty much a repeat of his playoff MO in Philly for which he was heavily criticized.
I think the takeaway here is that there's no reason to get bent out of shape that the Richards and Carter have a chance to win it all elsewhere so soon after the trade. They didn't destroy the franchise here, and they haven't magically become brave playoff heroes elsewhere.
Flyers fans are free to root for or against them in the finals, but bitterness towards the pair on the grounds that they sabotaged the Flyers and ran off to play better in another city, isn't really justified. I'm still happy with the trades, as I was last summer.
I think some Flyers fans are getting carried away in criticizing Richards and Carter, acting as if they were a cancer on the team. That is gossip, conjecture, and revisionist history run amok. It seems to me that the Carter trade was a simple hockey trade, and a very good one at that. The Richards trade was a little less straightforward, but seemed to be a personality makeover to team leadership. That trade's success remains less clear.
Before saying anything else, you need to take a step back and look at how Carter and Richards actually performed this season.
Carter: 55gp (for CLB and LA), 21 goals, 13 assists, -13.
Richards: 74 gp, 18 goals, 26 assists, +3
34 and 44 points? Flyers fans would be going batshit crazy if those players stayed on the Flyers squad this year and produced those numbers.
So what about the playoffs?
Carter: 14gp, 4 goals, 5 assists, +2
Richards: 14gp, 4 goals, 7 assists, +3
I think the Kings are pretty satisfied with what they are getting from Richards these playoffs. He's playing in a mostly defensive role, and chipping in some points along the way. This is more or less what he did with the Flyers, and his points/game is nearly identical as his time in Philly (with Flyers 50/63=0.794, with Kings 11/14=0.786).
Regarding Carter, a big knock on him in Philly were his playoff disappearances (21/47=0.447 points/game). His 9 points in the 14 games seem to imply a different level in performance, though that number is inflated by a relatively unimpressive hat track. Take away that one game, and he has a line of 1 goal, 5 assists in the 13 games (0.462 points/game). He has actually gone pointless in 9 of 14 playoff games. Again, this is pretty much a repeat of his playoff MO in Philly for which he was heavily criticized.
I think the takeaway here is that there's no reason to get bent out of shape that the Richards and Carter have a chance to win it all elsewhere so soon after the trade. They didn't destroy the franchise here, and they haven't magically become brave playoff heroes elsewhere.
Flyers fans are free to root for or against them in the finals, but bitterness towards the pair on the grounds that they sabotaged the Flyers and ran off to play better in another city, isn't really justified. I'm still happy with the trades, as I was last summer.
Sunday, May 13, 2012
The Offseason Plan
THE SETUP
Here is my best guess as to what the Flyers base lineup will be.
Notes to this chart
-Nearly all of these salary numbers are final, except for Bourdon and Voracek. They are RFAs, and I have guessed at salaries for them
-Pronger, Kubina, Carle and Jagr are not in this lineup.
-A salary cap of $69 million, which is a number that has been thrown around. Obviously with the CBA expiring things could get interesting regarding the cap.
THE ISSUES
-Is Jagr coming back?
That is the first question to answer. If the season ended in January, I would say definitely. He looked tired and beat up as the season carried on though, and his role was reduced. Jagr loved everything about playing for the Flyers this year, and he sounds like he wants one more year in the NHL, but he won't sign here unless he feels he will get significant minutes. He signed with the Flyers against expectations last year because he thought it was a good "hockey fit", and he will leave if that "hockey fit" no longer applies.
-The Defense
By signing Grossmann to an extension, the Flyers took care of their top offseason priority in April. That seems like a decent contract, provided his knees hold up. The Flyers still need help back here though, with Pronger seemingly done, and Timonen is at the end of his career, undersized, and has not survived an 82 game season without sustaining performance-inhibiting injuries the last 2 seasons.
I don't think Carle will be back, because someone will be willing to give him $5m+ a year for several years, and I don't think the Flyers should be that team. You never know though with the way Clarke is talking. There's also a (very) small chance Timonen could retire, freeing up his $6.3m salary, and the Flyers could chase Suter for big money.
Lastly, I've seen spitballing the Flyers could trade for someone like Weber, would involve trading significant assets. Such a move fits the Flyers MO, and while it would hurt to trade away more picks and young forwards, a defense corps with Coburn, Carle and Weber could be rock solid for several years. So many variables to that though...
-Size up front
The Flyers score a ton of goals, but their forward corps is small and not very physical. A big body for the 2/3rd line (who plays big) would balance the roster.
-Goaltending
Nothing to discuss here really. Bryzgalov did not have a good year overall, but I expect improvement next year now that he knows what to expect in Philly. His instincts with the media are wrong for the town, but he's figuring it out.
If you recall, at the end of February, Bryzgalov made comments about "finding the peace in his soul" to play in this city. Most commented that this was a very troubling sign reflecting a discouraged player, and I said it was a good sign. For the record, on the day of that comment, Bryzgalov's save percentage stood at .898. After that comment, he had a spectacular month of March and had a .929 save percentage for the remainder of the season. He will still makes gaffes, but now he knows the lay of the land in Philly and will be better for it.
THE PLAN
There are a ton of ways you could go, but this is what I would do:
-Trade JVR, preferably for an up-and-coming dman. I'm not sure what the trade value of JVR is right now, and if it's diminished in the last few months, but surely the Flyers could make a "hockey trade" for a talented young defenseman whose career is also experiencing less than an exponential growth. Personally, I don't see JVR as a player who will ever consistently perform at all-star level, and the team needs defense more than another skating forward.
JVR could also be the centerpiece of a larger deal for a prominent defensemen.
-Sign a rugged 2/3 line winger to fill JVR's now vacant spot in the top nine. Unfortunately there aren't many such candidates out there on the UFA market, though Shane Doan, Ryan Smyth, Paul Gaustad, Dustin Penner, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Travis Moen and Daniel Winnik might be worth looking into.
-If you can skillfully pull these two things off, the Flyers will still have $3-7 million in cap space to play with, allowing for other signings or taking salary in a trade that could further bolster the defense.
-Make an executive order for system adjustments. I've been beating this drum for a few months. I was really hoping that, as a silver lining to a deep Flyers cup run, would be to buck the trend of tight defense in the NHL today. Alas, look at the teams left in the playoffs; LA (2nd in goals against, and they eliminated VAN and STL who were 4th and 1st respectively), Phoenix (5th), NY (3rd), NJ (9th) and the Caps, who are 21st but only because they started a season with a different coach. Clutch-and-grab is creeping back into the game.
I also believe Bryzgalov will look like a different goalie in a defense-first scheme. This is how he did it in PHX, and his clear weaknesses are side-to-side movement and shot recovery. Defense-first is the way the wind is blowing, and could maximize the talent the Flyers have. Can Lavy make that adjustment? If the team is still leaking goals and looking unspectacular in December, his seat will begin to get hot.
Here is my best guess as to what the Flyers base lineup will be.
Notes to this chart
-Nearly all of these salary numbers are final, except for Bourdon and Voracek. They are RFAs, and I have guessed at salaries for them
-Pronger, Kubina, Carle and Jagr are not in this lineup.
-A salary cap of $69 million, which is a number that has been thrown around. Obviously with the CBA expiring things could get interesting regarding the cap.
THE ISSUES
-Is Jagr coming back?
That is the first question to answer. If the season ended in January, I would say definitely. He looked tired and beat up as the season carried on though, and his role was reduced. Jagr loved everything about playing for the Flyers this year, and he sounds like he wants one more year in the NHL, but he won't sign here unless he feels he will get significant minutes. He signed with the Flyers against expectations last year because he thought it was a good "hockey fit", and he will leave if that "hockey fit" no longer applies.
-The Defense
By signing Grossmann to an extension, the Flyers took care of their top offseason priority in April. That seems like a decent contract, provided his knees hold up. The Flyers still need help back here though, with Pronger seemingly done, and Timonen is at the end of his career, undersized, and has not survived an 82 game season without sustaining performance-inhibiting injuries the last 2 seasons.
I don't think Carle will be back, because someone will be willing to give him $5m+ a year for several years, and I don't think the Flyers should be that team. You never know though with the way Clarke is talking. There's also a (very) small chance Timonen could retire, freeing up his $6.3m salary, and the Flyers could chase Suter for big money.
Lastly, I've seen spitballing the Flyers could trade for someone like Weber, would involve trading significant assets. Such a move fits the Flyers MO, and while it would hurt to trade away more picks and young forwards, a defense corps with Coburn, Carle and Weber could be rock solid for several years. So many variables to that though...
-Size up front
The Flyers score a ton of goals, but their forward corps is small and not very physical. A big body for the 2/3rd line (who plays big) would balance the roster.
-Goaltending
Nothing to discuss here really. Bryzgalov did not have a good year overall, but I expect improvement next year now that he knows what to expect in Philly. His instincts with the media are wrong for the town, but he's figuring it out.
If you recall, at the end of February, Bryzgalov made comments about "finding the peace in his soul" to play in this city. Most commented that this was a very troubling sign reflecting a discouraged player, and I said it was a good sign. For the record, on the day of that comment, Bryzgalov's save percentage stood at .898. After that comment, he had a spectacular month of March and had a .929 save percentage for the remainder of the season. He will still makes gaffes, but now he knows the lay of the land in Philly and will be better for it.
THE PLAN
There are a ton of ways you could go, but this is what I would do:
-Trade JVR, preferably for an up-and-coming dman. I'm not sure what the trade value of JVR is right now, and if it's diminished in the last few months, but surely the Flyers could make a "hockey trade" for a talented young defenseman whose career is also experiencing less than an exponential growth. Personally, I don't see JVR as a player who will ever consistently perform at all-star level, and the team needs defense more than another skating forward.
JVR could also be the centerpiece of a larger deal for a prominent defensemen.
-Sign a rugged 2/3 line winger to fill JVR's now vacant spot in the top nine. Unfortunately there aren't many such candidates out there on the UFA market, though Shane Doan, Ryan Smyth, Paul Gaustad, Dustin Penner, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Travis Moen and Daniel Winnik might be worth looking into.
-If you can skillfully pull these two things off, the Flyers will still have $3-7 million in cap space to play with, allowing for other signings or taking salary in a trade that could further bolster the defense.
-Make an executive order for system adjustments. I've been beating this drum for a few months. I was really hoping that, as a silver lining to a deep Flyers cup run, would be to buck the trend of tight defense in the NHL today. Alas, look at the teams left in the playoffs; LA (2nd in goals against, and they eliminated VAN and STL who were 4th and 1st respectively), Phoenix (5th), NY (3rd), NJ (9th) and the Caps, who are 21st but only because they started a season with a different coach. Clutch-and-grab is creeping back into the game.
I also believe Bryzgalov will look like a different goalie in a defense-first scheme. This is how he did it in PHX, and his clear weaknesses are side-to-side movement and shot recovery. Defense-first is the way the wind is blowing, and could maximize the talent the Flyers have. Can Lavy make that adjustment? If the team is still leaking goals and looking unspectacular in December, his seat will begin to get hot.
Friday, May 11, 2012
Season Review
All playoff exits feel disappointing. Through the ups and downs, fans always convince themselves that their team can win any series. The Flyers flame-out was sudden, but in the long view, it makes a little more sense.
At no point this season did I think the Flyers were really primed for a serious cup run. They were too young up front, having traded away their core forwards. Then things started going pretty well, but Pronger went down. Without Pronger, I thought a long playoff run was precluded.
The Flyers defensive and goaltending struggles reinforced that perception, until March shutouts made me begin to think I could be wrong. The defense showed hope, and they could score whenever they needed to. Eventually however, the gas tank ran dry and ingrained problems caught up to them.
It was a memorable and exciting season, and I could not label this team as underachievers. That's pretty much all you can ask for as a fan.
PLAYER REVIEWS
Forwards:
-Giroux. The burden fell to him to step up with Carter and Richards gone, and he responded with an MVP caliber season that Richards or Carter never produced.
-Briere. A very poor regular season, largely saved by 8 playoff goals. His overall game never really fired on all cylinders though, even in the playoffs.
-Voracek. His 49 points is not all that impressive, but he was a valuable player for the Flyers, and I certainly didn't see anything like conditioning or effort issues that his old CBJ coach criticized him for on the way out. He may never break 25 goals or 65 points, but I could see him being a winger on a quality top line.
-Hartnell. A quiet playoffs shouldn't dilute a career year, and I think he was playing hurt anyway. Consistently energetic, physical, and showed a finishing touch I didn't think he had. All this after a pre-season lost to health concerns and a terrible start.
-Jagr. 54 points in 73 games, veteran leadership, and the self-proclaimed "most enjoyable year" of his career. That qualifies as a success. Jagr did have some nagging groin issues, and his energy level fluctuated throughout the year, so it remains to be seen if he will be back.
-Schenn. 18 points in 54 games is an unimpressive line, but he improved as the season wore on, and I'd go so far as to say he was the Flyers' best player in game 1 of the Pittsburgh series. I expect him to take the next step in his career next year.
-Read. He turned out to be one of the best rookies in the league. 24 goals, played everywhere on the front line, and in all situations. Pretty much ideal.
-Simmonds. Almost doubled his career high in goals, largely due to 11 PP goals. He looks to be a streaky scorer going forward, as he battles and puts himself in good positions but doesn't have very soft hands, his physical initiative will make him a fan favorite.
-Talbot. Gave the Flyers everything they could hope for. A lunchpail player and team guy, he went from 8 goals last season with Pittsburgh to 19 this year, and he and Giroux were lethal shorthanded in the playoffs.
-Couturier. Surpassed all expectations this season, with 13 goals and logged big minutes in the playoffs. Remarkable for an 18 year old, I could not identify any clear deficiencies in his game. What a draft day steal, he could be a key player for the Flyers for a long time.
-Wellwood. Nothing spectacular, but a young, speedy player that should be an asset for bottom lines and depth next year.
-Rinaldo. Did all that could be asked of him. Not a high skill guy, he successfully brought a lot of energy and spark to the Flyers. He will have to continue to work on his discipline, though in his defense, he is clearly targeted by the officials and is on the short end of a lot of marginal calls.
-JVR. I think JVR had a very disappointing season. Yes, he had injuries, and his point production was decent before all the injuries. Still, I wrote that his early stat line flattered his play even before all the injuries, and there's no escaping the reality of the 11g, 13a, 43gp for a player who was supposed to score 30+ goals this year. He was very good in game 1 against NJ, but did little else in that series.
-Shelley. Yes, he is still on this team.
Defense:
-Timonen. Another year of wear and tear on Timonen's body, he still was able to be the Flyers top defensemen this year. Injuries severely limited him in the playoffs.
-Meszaros. Was inconsistent all year, never finding the form he had most of last season. Then his season was cut short by an injury. Maybe next year will be a bounce back season.
-Coburn. Unremarkable regular season, but logged huge minutes in the playoffs.
-Grossmann. The strong, defense-first, shot-blocking defenseman the team needed. He has bad knees though, so let's hope they hold up.
-Carle. The team's de facto number 1 defensemen this year, covering a lot of territory and eating minutes. A very good chance that his time as a Flyers is over, however.
-Kubina. He could not provide the reliable veteran presence the team was looking for---too old and slow, and picked up some injuries too. Little chance of him returning.
-Pronger. His season never really started, and his career may be over. It's a shame his time with the Flyers was so short-lived.
-Gustafsson. He really made some nice strides this season, though he could struggle at times. Skilled and smart, but undersized. It will be interesting to see what he can do next year in extended time.
-Bourdon. Another pleasant surprise, as his career seemed to have stalled in the minors. Looks like he might have an NHL future yet.
-Lilja. Seldom used in the regular season, played decently in the playoffs. Too old and slow to play a significant role.
Goalies:
-Bryzgalov. Things did not go as planned, though he was amazing in March. Too inconsistent and gaffe prone, but on and off the ice. Seemingly has some growing up to do, though a full season in Philly under his belt will help. Expectations will remain high with his 9 year contract. I am optimistic.
-Bobrovsky. Started the season strong, but on the whole did not take the next step in his career this year. Now heading into the last year of his contract with the Flyers.
At no point this season did I think the Flyers were really primed for a serious cup run. They were too young up front, having traded away their core forwards. Then things started going pretty well, but Pronger went down. Without Pronger, I thought a long playoff run was precluded.
The Flyers defensive and goaltending struggles reinforced that perception, until March shutouts made me begin to think I could be wrong. The defense showed hope, and they could score whenever they needed to. Eventually however, the gas tank ran dry and ingrained problems caught up to them.
It was a memorable and exciting season, and I could not label this team as underachievers. That's pretty much all you can ask for as a fan.
PLAYER REVIEWS
Forwards:
-Giroux. The burden fell to him to step up with Carter and Richards gone, and he responded with an MVP caliber season that Richards or Carter never produced.
-Briere. A very poor regular season, largely saved by 8 playoff goals. His overall game never really fired on all cylinders though, even in the playoffs.
-Voracek. His 49 points is not all that impressive, but he was a valuable player for the Flyers, and I certainly didn't see anything like conditioning or effort issues that his old CBJ coach criticized him for on the way out. He may never break 25 goals or 65 points, but I could see him being a winger on a quality top line.
-Hartnell. A quiet playoffs shouldn't dilute a career year, and I think he was playing hurt anyway. Consistently energetic, physical, and showed a finishing touch I didn't think he had. All this after a pre-season lost to health concerns and a terrible start.
-Jagr. 54 points in 73 games, veteran leadership, and the self-proclaimed "most enjoyable year" of his career. That qualifies as a success. Jagr did have some nagging groin issues, and his energy level fluctuated throughout the year, so it remains to be seen if he will be back.
-Schenn. 18 points in 54 games is an unimpressive line, but he improved as the season wore on, and I'd go so far as to say he was the Flyers' best player in game 1 of the Pittsburgh series. I expect him to take the next step in his career next year.
-Read. He turned out to be one of the best rookies in the league. 24 goals, played everywhere on the front line, and in all situations. Pretty much ideal.
-Simmonds. Almost doubled his career high in goals, largely due to 11 PP goals. He looks to be a streaky scorer going forward, as he battles and puts himself in good positions but doesn't have very soft hands, his physical initiative will make him a fan favorite.
-Talbot. Gave the Flyers everything they could hope for. A lunchpail player and team guy, he went from 8 goals last season with Pittsburgh to 19 this year, and he and Giroux were lethal shorthanded in the playoffs.
-Couturier. Surpassed all expectations this season, with 13 goals and logged big minutes in the playoffs. Remarkable for an 18 year old, I could not identify any clear deficiencies in his game. What a draft day steal, he could be a key player for the Flyers for a long time.
-Wellwood. Nothing spectacular, but a young, speedy player that should be an asset for bottom lines and depth next year.
-Rinaldo. Did all that could be asked of him. Not a high skill guy, he successfully brought a lot of energy and spark to the Flyers. He will have to continue to work on his discipline, though in his defense, he is clearly targeted by the officials and is on the short end of a lot of marginal calls.
-JVR. I think JVR had a very disappointing season. Yes, he had injuries, and his point production was decent before all the injuries. Still, I wrote that his early stat line flattered his play even before all the injuries, and there's no escaping the reality of the 11g, 13a, 43gp for a player who was supposed to score 30+ goals this year. He was very good in game 1 against NJ, but did little else in that series.
-Shelley. Yes, he is still on this team.
Defense:
-Timonen. Another year of wear and tear on Timonen's body, he still was able to be the Flyers top defensemen this year. Injuries severely limited him in the playoffs.
-Meszaros. Was inconsistent all year, never finding the form he had most of last season. Then his season was cut short by an injury. Maybe next year will be a bounce back season.
-Coburn. Unremarkable regular season, but logged huge minutes in the playoffs.
-Grossmann. The strong, defense-first, shot-blocking defenseman the team needed. He has bad knees though, so let's hope they hold up.
-Carle. The team's de facto number 1 defensemen this year, covering a lot of territory and eating minutes. A very good chance that his time as a Flyers is over, however.
-Kubina. He could not provide the reliable veteran presence the team was looking for---too old and slow, and picked up some injuries too. Little chance of him returning.
-Pronger. His season never really started, and his career may be over. It's a shame his time with the Flyers was so short-lived.
-Gustafsson. He really made some nice strides this season, though he could struggle at times. Skilled and smart, but undersized. It will be interesting to see what he can do next year in extended time.
-Bourdon. Another pleasant surprise, as his career seemed to have stalled in the minors. Looks like he might have an NHL future yet.
-Lilja. Seldom used in the regular season, played decently in the playoffs. Too old and slow to play a significant role.
Goalies:
-Bryzgalov. Things did not go as planned, though he was amazing in March. Too inconsistent and gaffe prone, but on and off the ice. Seemingly has some growing up to do, though a full season in Philly under his belt will help. Expectations will remain high with his 9 year contract. I am optimistic.
-Bobrovsky. Started the season strong, but on the whole did not take the next step in his career this year. Now heading into the last year of his contract with the Flyers.
Wednesday, May 9, 2012
Devils Game 5 Review
And now it's official. The Flyers death march concluded last night, in a game that looked pretty much like the previous 3. I'll save my broader comments on the season for another post, but it was disappointing to see the Flyers fall so flatly this round.
I always had deep doubts about the transferability of the Penguins result. As I have said previously, that was a series of passion and the Flyers should simply forget it ever happened. The Penguins are a better team than the Devils, but the Penguins-Flyers series was a rivalry that created a unique series that was an exception to what was happening around the league.
While a letdown is not surprising, an effective collapse by the Flyers was. Twice in six regular season meetings the Devils handily controlled the Flyers, but to do it 4 times in a row? I did not imagine that could happen.
It's most disappointing to me that the Flyers completely failed to adjust to the Devils game plan. By game 5, they clearly had no ideas, and the Devils continued to own the puck, control the center of the ice, and dominate on the boards. At this point, I'm not sure how blame much falls on the players, and how much falls on the coaches.
The Devils forecheck continued to bedevil the Flyers (har har har), but the domination went beyond that. For instance, the Flyers PP, which utterly demolished the Penguins, was 3/19 against the Devils. That has nothing to do with the Devils even strength forecheck. Furthermore, in this series with a 3rd period lead, the Devils would change their forecheck and play more of a trap. The Flyers could not beat that either, as evidenced by their feeble 3rd period effort last night with their season on the line and nothing to lose.
At least with the Flyers out, I am free to cancel cable for the summer...
Notes:
-Spare me the finger pointing at Bryzgalov. There is no defending the game winning goal last night, but on the whole, he was the Flyers best player this series by a large margin. He didn't singlehandedly win a game, but the Devils were the far superior team in games 2 and 4 and Bryz played excellent games to keep the result in doubt until the 3rd period.
I'm pretty sure all hockey writers have a pre-written template for an article "Goaltending Fails the Flyers Again" with blank spaces for the name of the goalie. Those articles will pop up again. Ignore them. And before you say good goalies simply don't do what Bryz did last night, consider that Brodeur directly caused a goal in game 1 by passing the puck right up the center of the ice where Schenn intercepted it, and again turned over the puck to Schenn last night while still behind the goal, but Briere hit the post on a wide open net. The only difference between Bryzgalov's turnover and Brodeur's last night was luck.
-Rinaldo instantly made his presence felt this game, sparking the Flyers physical game early with a devastating hit on Volchenkov. As the game carried on, Rinaldo became irrelevant however, and he took a bad penalty.
-Another disappointing night for JVR, topped off with a particularly bad sequence. He had the puck with time and space behind the Devils net, but was stripped of the puck, and took a terrible offensive zone penalty while trying to backcheck. Kovalchuck would ice the series 4 seconds into that PP.
-Good for Talbot last night, as he was one of the few flyers that was johnny-on-the-spot on the puck, and his forechecking in the corner started a sequence of events that he would also finish to score the game's first goal.
-The team that scored first was 0-5 this series. The team that scored first was 1-5 last series. Hard to believe...
-Brief playoff performance recaps;
-Thumbs up: Briere (8 goals and 13 points), Giroux (17 points), Voracek (10 points), Schenn (9 points), Talbot (6 points, best +/- on team), Couturier, Coburn (played huge minutes), Grossmann (until getting injured), Gustafsson
-Thumbs down: Carle, Simmonds, Read (didn't get much ice time), JVR, Kubina (injured? either way wasn't there for the team)
-Meh: Hartnell (injured?), Jagr (injured?), Timonen (injured?), Bryzgalov, Lilja, Wellwood, Rinaldo
I always had deep doubts about the transferability of the Penguins result. As I have said previously, that was a series of passion and the Flyers should simply forget it ever happened. The Penguins are a better team than the Devils, but the Penguins-Flyers series was a rivalry that created a unique series that was an exception to what was happening around the league.
While a letdown is not surprising, an effective collapse by the Flyers was. Twice in six regular season meetings the Devils handily controlled the Flyers, but to do it 4 times in a row? I did not imagine that could happen.
It's most disappointing to me that the Flyers completely failed to adjust to the Devils game plan. By game 5, they clearly had no ideas, and the Devils continued to own the puck, control the center of the ice, and dominate on the boards. At this point, I'm not sure how blame much falls on the players, and how much falls on the coaches.
The Devils forecheck continued to bedevil the Flyers (har har har), but the domination went beyond that. For instance, the Flyers PP, which utterly demolished the Penguins, was 3/19 against the Devils. That has nothing to do with the Devils even strength forecheck. Furthermore, in this series with a 3rd period lead, the Devils would change their forecheck and play more of a trap. The Flyers could not beat that either, as evidenced by their feeble 3rd period effort last night with their season on the line and nothing to lose.
At least with the Flyers out, I am free to cancel cable for the summer...
Notes:
-Spare me the finger pointing at Bryzgalov. There is no defending the game winning goal last night, but on the whole, he was the Flyers best player this series by a large margin. He didn't singlehandedly win a game, but the Devils were the far superior team in games 2 and 4 and Bryz played excellent games to keep the result in doubt until the 3rd period.
I'm pretty sure all hockey writers have a pre-written template for an article "Goaltending Fails the Flyers Again" with blank spaces for the name of the goalie. Those articles will pop up again. Ignore them. And before you say good goalies simply don't do what Bryz did last night, consider that Brodeur directly caused a goal in game 1 by passing the puck right up the center of the ice where Schenn intercepted it, and again turned over the puck to Schenn last night while still behind the goal, but Briere hit the post on a wide open net. The only difference between Bryzgalov's turnover and Brodeur's last night was luck.
-Rinaldo instantly made his presence felt this game, sparking the Flyers physical game early with a devastating hit on Volchenkov. As the game carried on, Rinaldo became irrelevant however, and he took a bad penalty.
-Another disappointing night for JVR, topped off with a particularly bad sequence. He had the puck with time and space behind the Devils net, but was stripped of the puck, and took a terrible offensive zone penalty while trying to backcheck. Kovalchuck would ice the series 4 seconds into that PP.
-Good for Talbot last night, as he was one of the few flyers that was johnny-on-the-spot on the puck, and his forechecking in the corner started a sequence of events that he would also finish to score the game's first goal.
-The team that scored first was 0-5 this series. The team that scored first was 1-5 last series. Hard to believe...
-Brief playoff performance recaps;
-Thumbs up: Briere (8 goals and 13 points), Giroux (17 points), Voracek (10 points), Schenn (9 points), Talbot (6 points, best +/- on team), Couturier, Coburn (played huge minutes), Grossmann (until getting injured), Gustafsson
-Thumbs down: Carle, Simmonds, Read (didn't get much ice time), JVR, Kubina (injured? either way wasn't there for the team)
-Meh: Hartnell (injured?), Jagr (injured?), Timonen (injured?), Bryzgalov, Lilja, Wellwood, Rinaldo
Monday, May 7, 2012
Devils Game 4 Review
Well, it was fun while it lasted. The Flyers may not be officially eliminated, but it would take a miracle. 3-1 comebacks are quite rare, and the Devils dominated game 2 and 4. It's very hard to envision the Flyers mounting any comeback of consequence. Maybe I'll give them a 1-in-3 chance of winning game 5, mainly because I have tickets to the game and I don't want to feel like I wasted my money.
The Devils have completely swarmed the Flyers. Game 1 started off this way, but everyone wrote it off due the Devils being sharp and the Flyers waking up from the week-long layoff. Instead, that trend has accelerated.
I feel like there's a "chicken and the egg" scenario at play. The Devils forecheck has overwhelmed the Flyers, and now they look confused and are being completely outskated. Which came first? The overwhelming forecheck making the Flyers look slow, or the Flyers simply didn't have jump which allowed the Devils to forecheck so effectively?
I think it's probably the tactics. The Flyers forwards try to leave the zone so quickly, as they have all year, but the Devils have successfully pressured the Flyers defensemen. Without the time or ability to find the forwards, the defensemen keep playing the puck to empty space, and the Devils get there first.
At the same time, I don't discount the Flyers mental let-down from beating Pittsburgh. They put so much energy and passion into this series, it was like they couldn't get up for this series mentally. The situation was ripe for a letdown, and the Flyers fan base was certainly lulled into a false sense of security--"we killed the mighty Pens, so we'll crush the Devils easily." Admittedly, I didn't think a letdown would become a total disintegration like we are seeing though.
The Flyers look confused and tentative, and Laviolette probably does not have some magic elixir up his sleeve. The Devils might put them out of their misery pretty quick.
Notes:
-An up and down night for Giroux. He scored a nice shorthanded goal, allaying my fears that the rumors of his bad groin would prevent him from bursts of speed. After scoring however, he was more interested in barking at the ref than anything else. It was a bad sign, indicating his emotions were getting away from him.
Later, after the officials blew a call on Brodeur for playing the puck outside the trapezoid, Giroux again assailed the officials, then took out his frustration with a dirty check to Zubrus's head. This was pretty much the type of headshot for which I roasted Malkin and Neal. Late, opportunistic headhunting. If it was my NHL, Giroux would be suspended. As it is, given that Giroux didn't make an egregiously illegal hit by leaving his feet or throwing an elbow, has no prior history, and Zubrus wasn't hurt, I suspect all we'll see is a fine.
-Speaking of Brodeur, his special treatment from the refs continues. The interference call on Hartnell was blatantly wrong, as Hartnell was clearly checked into him, and at mild contact Brodeur wildly kicked his legs and threw his arms around. He also dodged a penalty for handling the puck. That's 3 games in a row where Brodeur has drawn a penalty on the Flyers when there simply wasn't much (or anything at all) there. [JVR called for slashing in Game 2 when going for a loose puck, Schenn makes slight skate-to-skate contact and Broduer flops in game 3].
-The Flyers' lines are all mixed up. Couturier played, but barely. This broke up his checking line with Wellwood and Talbot, so Wellwood also barely played. I do support Laviolette's decision to break up the Jagr-Giroux-Hartnell. Whether it's injuries or whatever, their not playing well individually or collectively.
-Regarding Bryzgalov, anyone who tries to pin this debacle on the goaltending is an idiot. The Flyers were dominated in games 2 and 4, but the game was close to the end because of Bryzgalov. I don't like how he threw up his hands after the Devils' 3rd goal last night though, even if it was shockingly bad coverage. For once the Flyers can reflect on their playoff run and don't need to ask themselves how they were sabotaged by goaltending.
The Devils have completely swarmed the Flyers. Game 1 started off this way, but everyone wrote it off due the Devils being sharp and the Flyers waking up from the week-long layoff. Instead, that trend has accelerated.
I feel like there's a "chicken and the egg" scenario at play. The Devils forecheck has overwhelmed the Flyers, and now they look confused and are being completely outskated. Which came first? The overwhelming forecheck making the Flyers look slow, or the Flyers simply didn't have jump which allowed the Devils to forecheck so effectively?
I think it's probably the tactics. The Flyers forwards try to leave the zone so quickly, as they have all year, but the Devils have successfully pressured the Flyers defensemen. Without the time or ability to find the forwards, the defensemen keep playing the puck to empty space, and the Devils get there first.
At the same time, I don't discount the Flyers mental let-down from beating Pittsburgh. They put so much energy and passion into this series, it was like they couldn't get up for this series mentally. The situation was ripe for a letdown, and the Flyers fan base was certainly lulled into a false sense of security--"we killed the mighty Pens, so we'll crush the Devils easily." Admittedly, I didn't think a letdown would become a total disintegration like we are seeing though.
The Flyers look confused and tentative, and Laviolette probably does not have some magic elixir up his sleeve. The Devils might put them out of their misery pretty quick.
Notes:
-An up and down night for Giroux. He scored a nice shorthanded goal, allaying my fears that the rumors of his bad groin would prevent him from bursts of speed. After scoring however, he was more interested in barking at the ref than anything else. It was a bad sign, indicating his emotions were getting away from him.
Later, after the officials blew a call on Brodeur for playing the puck outside the trapezoid, Giroux again assailed the officials, then took out his frustration with a dirty check to Zubrus's head. This was pretty much the type of headshot for which I roasted Malkin and Neal. Late, opportunistic headhunting. If it was my NHL, Giroux would be suspended. As it is, given that Giroux didn't make an egregiously illegal hit by leaving his feet or throwing an elbow, has no prior history, and Zubrus wasn't hurt, I suspect all we'll see is a fine.
-Speaking of Brodeur, his special treatment from the refs continues. The interference call on Hartnell was blatantly wrong, as Hartnell was clearly checked into him, and at mild contact Brodeur wildly kicked his legs and threw his arms around. He also dodged a penalty for handling the puck. That's 3 games in a row where Brodeur has drawn a penalty on the Flyers when there simply wasn't much (or anything at all) there. [JVR called for slashing in Game 2 when going for a loose puck, Schenn makes slight skate-to-skate contact and Broduer flops in game 3].
-The Flyers' lines are all mixed up. Couturier played, but barely. This broke up his checking line with Wellwood and Talbot, so Wellwood also barely played. I do support Laviolette's decision to break up the Jagr-Giroux-Hartnell. Whether it's injuries or whatever, their not playing well individually or collectively.
-Regarding Bryzgalov, anyone who tries to pin this debacle on the goaltending is an idiot. The Flyers were dominated in games 2 and 4, but the game was close to the end because of Bryzgalov. I don't like how he threw up his hands after the Devils' 3rd goal last night though, even if it was shockingly bad coverage. For once the Flyers can reflect on their playoff run and don't need to ask themselves how they were sabotaged by goaltending.
Friday, May 4, 2012
Devils Game 3 Review
The margin of error is now officially gone for the Flyers, and they face a virtual must-win on Sunday.
It was the most evenly played game of the series, and the result was in a precarious balance throughout. The Devils appeared to be playing with more desire and purpose, and were deserved winners.
This year's Flyers squad has experienced more than their share of ups and downs. They seem unstoppable one game, and completely incompetent the next. I think many fooled themselves that, after beating the mighty Pens, the Flyers had turned a corner and become a different, more powerful team. Truthfully, the Flyers were still the same team---often irresistible on offense but terribly inconsistent and inattentive.
The Devils were a much trickier match-up than people wanted to acknowledge. Now the Flyers have to start skating and banging again, as the Devils are simply playing with much more jump.
The time for jumping off a bridge has not yet come. This is a remarkably resilient team, so let's see how they do in Game 4. Nothing is too big for this team to accomplish.
Notes:
-It's time for Claude Giroux to re-assert himself. He's allowed to have bad games, but he and his line have not mounted consistent threats. The Flyers need him again. It may also be time to completely change his linemates.
-Brodeur has the officials eating out of his hand. His complaints about the game 1 winner being goaltender interference, a claim completely without merit, has led to a very quick whistle or penalties every time the Flyers get near him. The Schenn interference penalty was completely overblown contact, though I won't complain too much because the Flyers were only on a powerplay due to an erroneous call on Kovalchuk for shooting the puck out of play. Conversely, Kovalchuk rung a potential game winner off the post on a play where a Devil lost his edge and interfered with Bryzgalov. Clearly there are different standards for each goalie.
-The Devils continue to outskate the Flyers, and Parise in a particular had a rocket up his ass last night. If the Flyers don't match the Devils jump, they will not win.
-The Flyers power play is playing incredibly loose and careless. Most of their problem against the Devils is in gaining the zone, something they accomplished easily against the Pens. Still, clarity of purpose has been lacking in all aspects of their game, and nowhere is this more clear than on the PP. Additionally, these hopeless Flyers power plays are having the negative effect of sparking the Devils in the moments thereafter.
It was the most evenly played game of the series, and the result was in a precarious balance throughout. The Devils appeared to be playing with more desire and purpose, and were deserved winners.
This year's Flyers squad has experienced more than their share of ups and downs. They seem unstoppable one game, and completely incompetent the next. I think many fooled themselves that, after beating the mighty Pens, the Flyers had turned a corner and become a different, more powerful team. Truthfully, the Flyers were still the same team---often irresistible on offense but terribly inconsistent and inattentive.
The Devils were a much trickier match-up than people wanted to acknowledge. Now the Flyers have to start skating and banging again, as the Devils are simply playing with much more jump.
The time for jumping off a bridge has not yet come. This is a remarkably resilient team, so let's see how they do in Game 4. Nothing is too big for this team to accomplish.
Notes:
-It's time for Claude Giroux to re-assert himself. He's allowed to have bad games, but he and his line have not mounted consistent threats. The Flyers need him again. It may also be time to completely change his linemates.
-Brodeur has the officials eating out of his hand. His complaints about the game 1 winner being goaltender interference, a claim completely without merit, has led to a very quick whistle or penalties every time the Flyers get near him. The Schenn interference penalty was completely overblown contact, though I won't complain too much because the Flyers were only on a powerplay due to an erroneous call on Kovalchuk for shooting the puck out of play. Conversely, Kovalchuk rung a potential game winner off the post on a play where a Devil lost his edge and interfered with Bryzgalov. Clearly there are different standards for each goalie.
-The Devils continue to outskate the Flyers, and Parise in a particular had a rocket up his ass last night. If the Flyers don't match the Devils jump, they will not win.
-The Flyers power play is playing incredibly loose and careless. Most of their problem against the Devils is in gaining the zone, something they accomplished easily against the Pens. Still, clarity of purpose has been lacking in all aspects of their game, and nowhere is this more clear than on the PP. Additionally, these hopeless Flyers power plays are having the negative effect of sparking the Devils in the moments thereafter.
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
Devils Game 2 Review
Hoepfully, last night was just a wake-up call.
Aside from Bryzgalov, there is very little to say about the Flyers performance last night. The Devils had the better of the first few shifts, but then the Flyers nicked a goal on their first shot. In the next few minutes the Flyers looked like they might get a few more goals and run away with it, but some Devils power plays broke their momentum. They would never get it back.
Towards the end of the first period, Pierre McGuire remarked how the Devils would need to come up with a better push because the Flyers were comfortable playing with the lead and trading some scoring chances. The Devils found a huge push, and it lasted the rest of the game.
Getting outshot 12-2 in a period and looking so lifeless in a playoff game is embarrassing. The Flyers never played with any intensity, as the Devils skated circles around the stationary Flyers, even on the Flyers' power plays.
This game was not unlike the regular season meetings in early November (when the Flyers were outshot 39-23) and early February (where the Devils led 6-0). Those were the Devils two best performances against the Flyers this year, and both meetings took place in Philadelphia.
The Flyers are still a much more potent team than the Devils, but this game is a reminder to them of the carelessness which occasionally plagued their regular season. No need to panic, but the Flyers need to get back on the horse quickly.
Notes:
-None
Aside from Bryzgalov, there is very little to say about the Flyers performance last night. The Devils had the better of the first few shifts, but then the Flyers nicked a goal on their first shot. In the next few minutes the Flyers looked like they might get a few more goals and run away with it, but some Devils power plays broke their momentum. They would never get it back.
Towards the end of the first period, Pierre McGuire remarked how the Devils would need to come up with a better push because the Flyers were comfortable playing with the lead and trading some scoring chances. The Devils found a huge push, and it lasted the rest of the game.
Getting outshot 12-2 in a period and looking so lifeless in a playoff game is embarrassing. The Flyers never played with any intensity, as the Devils skated circles around the stationary Flyers, even on the Flyers' power plays.
This game was not unlike the regular season meetings in early November (when the Flyers were outshot 39-23) and early February (where the Devils led 6-0). Those were the Devils two best performances against the Flyers this year, and both meetings took place in Philadelphia.
The Flyers are still a much more potent team than the Devils, but this game is a reminder to them of the carelessness which occasionally plagued their regular season. No need to panic, but the Flyers need to get back on the horse quickly.
Notes:
-None
Sunday, April 29, 2012
Devils Game 1 Review
It all seemed too predictable.
Predictably, the long layoff exacerbated the Flyers' slow starts, and the Devils had the game's first 10 shots and its first goal.
Predictably, the Flyers slowly took over the game against a fatigued Devils team.
Predictably, Brodeur had some real strong stretches, but doesn't dominate entire games anymore.
Predictably, it was Danny Briere popping up to score two key goals.
Overall, I think we saw a preview of what this series will look like. The Devils contained the Flyers at times, denying the Flyers space and stopping attacks before they started. In time, however, the Flyers asserted their superiority.
Notes:
-Briere simply turns it up in the playoffs. He had a terrible regular season, making the success of his season entirely hinge on his playoff performance. Well now he has 7 goals in 7 playoff games. As good as he was in the playoffs last year, it took him 8 games to get 7 goals then. This is all the more impressive considering he finished the season with only 3 goals in his last 34 regular season games.
-Playoff JVR is back. He revved it up and drove the net a few times. He didn't finish any of those plays, though he did roof a loose puck with style for one goal. Laviolette put JVR up with Briere and Voracek, reducing the ice time of Schenn in the process, but it looks like that may be the right call.
-The Flyers were able to spread out their defensemen's ice time much more tonight than at any point of the Pittsburgh series. The health of Grossman, increased faith in Lilja and Gustafsson, and quite frankly less threatening forward talent on the Devils made this possible. This may not be a good sign because of what it implies about his health, but Timonen actually had the fewest even strength minutes of any defensemen.
-The Devils had success taking away the Flyers passing outlets and forcing the Flyers defensemen to carry the puck further than they normally would up the ice. The Devils got their 3rd goal on a chain of events that started this way.
-Wellwood played a very good game, and looked like one of the few Flyers ready to go from the start. As a member of the checking line with Talbot and Cooter, Wellwood will continue to see more ice time than Schenn, Read or Simmonds.
-My review of Bryzgalov today was a pretty strong start, but could've been better later. In particular, he was a little slow moving around and reacting, leaving his five-hole open. Bryzgalov didn't have much to do in the 3rd period, but he should've done better on the Sykora goal and made a momentum preserving stop.
Predictably, the long layoff exacerbated the Flyers' slow starts, and the Devils had the game's first 10 shots and its first goal.
Predictably, the Flyers slowly took over the game against a fatigued Devils team.
Predictably, Brodeur had some real strong stretches, but doesn't dominate entire games anymore.
Predictably, it was Danny Briere popping up to score two key goals.
Overall, I think we saw a preview of what this series will look like. The Devils contained the Flyers at times, denying the Flyers space and stopping attacks before they started. In time, however, the Flyers asserted their superiority.
Notes:
-Briere simply turns it up in the playoffs. He had a terrible regular season, making the success of his season entirely hinge on his playoff performance. Well now he has 7 goals in 7 playoff games. As good as he was in the playoffs last year, it took him 8 games to get 7 goals then. This is all the more impressive considering he finished the season with only 3 goals in his last 34 regular season games.
-Playoff JVR is back. He revved it up and drove the net a few times. He didn't finish any of those plays, though he did roof a loose puck with style for one goal. Laviolette put JVR up with Briere and Voracek, reducing the ice time of Schenn in the process, but it looks like that may be the right call.
-The Flyers were able to spread out their defensemen's ice time much more tonight than at any point of the Pittsburgh series. The health of Grossman, increased faith in Lilja and Gustafsson, and quite frankly less threatening forward talent on the Devils made this possible. This may not be a good sign because of what it implies about his health, but Timonen actually had the fewest even strength minutes of any defensemen.
-The Devils had success taking away the Flyers passing outlets and forcing the Flyers defensemen to carry the puck further than they normally would up the ice. The Devils got their 3rd goal on a chain of events that started this way.
-Wellwood played a very good game, and looked like one of the few Flyers ready to go from the start. As a member of the checking line with Talbot and Cooter, Wellwood will continue to see more ice time than Schenn, Read or Simmonds.
-My review of Bryzgalov today was a pretty strong start, but could've been better later. In particular, he was a little slow moving around and reacting, leaving his five-hole open. Bryzgalov didn't have much to do in the 3rd period, but he should've done better on the Sykora goal and made a momentum preserving stop.
Friday, April 27, 2012
Finally, an Opponent
After dispatching the Flyer's archrival of the moment, the Flyers will now face their chief rival from about 1995-2005, the New Jersey Devils.
This year's Devils aren't the most formidable team, but they are capable of playing some good hockey. Brodeur is also a legend, but at 39 he is much more vulnerable than he used to be.
The Flyers are capable of winning this series convincingly, but a victory lap would be premature. The Flyers's bad starts and lack of 60 minute efforts could make this a long series if the Devils stay the course.
The Flyers largely need to forget the last series. It was a wide-open series of passion. This series will not be. The Devils this year allowed the second fewest shots against in the NHL, and were 4th from the bottom in generating their own shots, so prepare for much tighter hockey. Fortunately for the Flyers, the Devils weren't suffocating when protecting leads either.
Notes:
-The Flyers will not be repeating their 50+% power play percentage. Better, more reliable 5-on-5 play will be required. Despite a poor first round performance, the Devils PK was #1 in the league this year in the regular season (the Penguins were #3, FWIW).
-Health will be a major issue. Grossmann appears ready to go, but Briere, Jagr and Timonen are all in various states of disrepair. Bryzgalov appears to be healthy, but you also can't forget his injury status. Lastly, Meszaros is increasing participation in practices, but all estimates peg him joining the series very late, if at all.
-The Flyers played the Devils 6 times this season
-10/8 - Bryzgalov gets a 20 save shutout in the 2nd game of the season. 3-0 Flyers.
-11/3 - The Flyers blow a 2-0 lead, losing 4-3 in a shootout. The Devils outshoot the Flyers 39-23
-1/21 - The Flyers again take a 2-0 lead, and a couple of PP goals by Hartnell ends in a 4-1 Flyers victory
-2/4 - The Devils get 3 PP goals and 1 SHG, and chase Bobrovsky from the game leading 6-0. The Flyers score 4 goals in the third period to make it respectable. 6-4 Devils.
-3/11 - A 1-1 game early in the 3rd period, the Devils score 3 unanswered goals, outshooting the Flyers 31-19 overall. 4-1 Devils.
-3/13 - In the back-end of the home-and-home series, the Flyers shut down NJ and Bryzgalov gets a 17 save shutout, 3-0 Flyers.
-FWIW, Bryzgalov's numbers against NJ this year were 3-0, 0.29 GAA, .987 save percentage, 2 shutouts. All losses fell on Bobrovsky, though Bobrovsky admittedly saw a lot more shots than Bryzgalov in those games.
-I will be interested to see how JVR performs this series, as hopefully his health will have improved significantly in the last week.
This year's Devils aren't the most formidable team, but they are capable of playing some good hockey. Brodeur is also a legend, but at 39 he is much more vulnerable than he used to be.
The Flyers are capable of winning this series convincingly, but a victory lap would be premature. The Flyers's bad starts and lack of 60 minute efforts could make this a long series if the Devils stay the course.
The Flyers largely need to forget the last series. It was a wide-open series of passion. This series will not be. The Devils this year allowed the second fewest shots against in the NHL, and were 4th from the bottom in generating their own shots, so prepare for much tighter hockey. Fortunately for the Flyers, the Devils weren't suffocating when protecting leads either.
Notes:
-The Flyers will not be repeating their 50+% power play percentage. Better, more reliable 5-on-5 play will be required. Despite a poor first round performance, the Devils PK was #1 in the league this year in the regular season (the Penguins were #3, FWIW).
-Health will be a major issue. Grossmann appears ready to go, but Briere, Jagr and Timonen are all in various states of disrepair. Bryzgalov appears to be healthy, but you also can't forget his injury status. Lastly, Meszaros is increasing participation in practices, but all estimates peg him joining the series very late, if at all.
-The Flyers played the Devils 6 times this season
-10/8 - Bryzgalov gets a 20 save shutout in the 2nd game of the season. 3-0 Flyers.
-11/3 - The Flyers blow a 2-0 lead, losing 4-3 in a shootout. The Devils outshoot the Flyers 39-23
-1/21 - The Flyers again take a 2-0 lead, and a couple of PP goals by Hartnell ends in a 4-1 Flyers victory
-2/4 - The Devils get 3 PP goals and 1 SHG, and chase Bobrovsky from the game leading 6-0. The Flyers score 4 goals in the third period to make it respectable. 6-4 Devils.
-3/11 - A 1-1 game early in the 3rd period, the Devils score 3 unanswered goals, outshooting the Flyers 31-19 overall. 4-1 Devils.
-3/13 - In the back-end of the home-and-home series, the Flyers shut down NJ and Bryzgalov gets a 17 save shutout, 3-0 Flyers.
-FWIW, Bryzgalov's numbers against NJ this year were 3-0, 0.29 GAA, .987 save percentage, 2 shutouts. All losses fell on Bobrovsky, though Bobrovsky admittedly saw a lot more shots than Bryzgalov in those games.
-I will be interested to see how JVR performs this series, as hopefully his health will have improved significantly in the last week.
Sunday, April 22, 2012
Penguins Game 6 Review
Flyers nation can now exhale.
Anxiety was rising, but instead the Flyers turned out their best 60 minutes of the series. Giroux provided the early boost, and the Flyers circled the wagons and survived the Penguins furious counter-punch. That would prove to be Penguins' best shot.
I was oddly confident this morning. Rationally, I should've been very concerned about the Flyers shorthanded defense, and Bryz looking physically hampered, but instead I just thought to myself that there was no way the Flyers would let this series get away from them. They were going to win this game. This team has been way too resilient this year, never giving up. Yes, the Penguins were a more focused team than earlier in the series, but this Flyers team always answers the bell.
I'm already looking forward to the next round, and pulling hard for both Washington and Ottawa to complete their upsets and leave a clear path to the finals for the Flyers. Either way, it will be great not to have to think about punks like Malkin, Neal and Letang for 6 months.
Notes:
-The Flyers really tightened up defensively. Bryzgalov faced hardly any clean looks, and didn't have to move laterally nearly as much. As a result, he looked more comfortable and made all the expected saves. Also, the Flyers blocked 40 shots today, more than the previous two games combined (and double the 20 they blocked in game 3, their previous series high).
-Gustafsson came in and played like a champ. His ice time rose from ~12 minutes in game 5 to ~22 in game 6, nearly all at even strength. That was more than Timonen and Carle at even strength this game. Timonen actually played less than 7.5 minutes at even strength, and 15 overall.
-After going for 1/3 on the power play today, the Flyers percentage dropped to 57% (12/23) for the series. The Pens themselves went 31% (9/29), a damn good number in any other reality, but also gave up 3 shorthanded goals. Mind you, the Pens were one of the best penalty killing teams in the league this year and set a franchise record for PK percentage.
-Crosby was nearly invisible today, and I suspect he is not 100% after getting nailed on the chin by Malkin last game. Malkin was very good, scoring one, hitting a post, and generally wreaking havoc in the Flyers zone around the net.
Anxiety was rising, but instead the Flyers turned out their best 60 minutes of the series. Giroux provided the early boost, and the Flyers circled the wagons and survived the Penguins furious counter-punch. That would prove to be Penguins' best shot.
I was oddly confident this morning. Rationally, I should've been very concerned about the Flyers shorthanded defense, and Bryz looking physically hampered, but instead I just thought to myself that there was no way the Flyers would let this series get away from them. They were going to win this game. This team has been way too resilient this year, never giving up. Yes, the Penguins were a more focused team than earlier in the series, but this Flyers team always answers the bell.
I'm already looking forward to the next round, and pulling hard for both Washington and Ottawa to complete their upsets and leave a clear path to the finals for the Flyers. Either way, it will be great not to have to think about punks like Malkin, Neal and Letang for 6 months.
Notes:
-The Flyers really tightened up defensively. Bryzgalov faced hardly any clean looks, and didn't have to move laterally nearly as much. As a result, he looked more comfortable and made all the expected saves. Also, the Flyers blocked 40 shots today, more than the previous two games combined (and double the 20 they blocked in game 3, their previous series high).
-Gustafsson came in and played like a champ. His ice time rose from ~12 minutes in game 5 to ~22 in game 6, nearly all at even strength. That was more than Timonen and Carle at even strength this game. Timonen actually played less than 7.5 minutes at even strength, and 15 overall.
-After going for 1/3 on the power play today, the Flyers percentage dropped to 57% (12/23) for the series. The Pens themselves went 31% (9/29), a damn good number in any other reality, but also gave up 3 shorthanded goals. Mind you, the Pens were one of the best penalty killing teams in the league this year and set a franchise record for PK percentage.
-Crosby was nearly invisible today, and I suspect he is not 100% after getting nailed on the chin by Malkin last game. Malkin was very good, scoring one, hitting a post, and generally wreaking havoc in the Flyers zone around the net.
Penguins Game 5 Review
Okay, so I'm a little late on this one.
Anyway, we actually had a real hockey game this time. The nonsense finally stopped, and the teams simply played hockey. The Flyers started out pretty well, but fell behind in the second period and couldn't squeak out one more goal to come back, though they came pretty close.
I like the Flyers odds in game 6, but this is a real series again.
Notes:
-Goaltending. Before you say anything about either team getting a goaltending advantage, consider the stats thus far; Bryzgalov, 4.54 GAA, .848%, Fleury, 4.70 GAA, .837%. Equally awful.
Now that doesn't mean it will necessarily continue that way, and it certainly looks to me like Bryzgalov is being affected by injury. His chip fracture in his foot may not be fully healed, and there are rumors his hip is also bad. Either way, he cannot move laterally to the right. On several plays the last two games when the puck goes that way quickly, he doesn't even try to move that way, and just falls on his back and flails his goal stick futilely. This is a major concern for the Flyers.
On the other hand, it would be unwarranted to conclude Fleury has turned the corner and will be better the remainder of the series. A few posts, a few slower whistles, or Danny Briere roofing a rebound as is his specialty, and Fleury gives up 4+ goals that game.
-The Flyers PP is absolutely killing it right now, but no even strength goals since game 3.
-The team scoring first is now 0-5 in this series.
-I despise Malkin. He is such a puke, and a weasel. He was pretty quiet on all fronts through the first 3 games, but once he got his first goal of the series, it seemed to get his blood pumping. Since then, he has headhunted Grossmann with a blind-side headshot, tried to castrate Couturier with his stick, and also blindsided Couturier up high away from the puck. This has been Malkin's MO for years, and you'll notice he only strikes other players when they are not looking. Slash, trip, punch, high-hits, and only to players who are distracted and looking the other way.
-Speaking of Grossman, he skated yesterday. I suppose there's a small chance he could play, though that would be awfully quick after an unofficial concussion. The Flyers could definitely use his size and shot blocking.
-JVR returned the lineup, but only played 7:31, the least of any forward. Hopefully he's well enough to play more minutes and carry the puck. Lilja and Kubina actually played fewer minutes, as obviously Laviolette doesn't trust them right now.
Anyway, we actually had a real hockey game this time. The nonsense finally stopped, and the teams simply played hockey. The Flyers started out pretty well, but fell behind in the second period and couldn't squeak out one more goal to come back, though they came pretty close.
I like the Flyers odds in game 6, but this is a real series again.
Notes:
-Goaltending. Before you say anything about either team getting a goaltending advantage, consider the stats thus far; Bryzgalov, 4.54 GAA, .848%, Fleury, 4.70 GAA, .837%. Equally awful.
Now that doesn't mean it will necessarily continue that way, and it certainly looks to me like Bryzgalov is being affected by injury. His chip fracture in his foot may not be fully healed, and there are rumors his hip is also bad. Either way, he cannot move laterally to the right. On several plays the last two games when the puck goes that way quickly, he doesn't even try to move that way, and just falls on his back and flails his goal stick futilely. This is a major concern for the Flyers.
On the other hand, it would be unwarranted to conclude Fleury has turned the corner and will be better the remainder of the series. A few posts, a few slower whistles, or Danny Briere roofing a rebound as is his specialty, and Fleury gives up 4+ goals that game.
-The Flyers PP is absolutely killing it right now, but no even strength goals since game 3.
-The team scoring first is now 0-5 in this series.
-I despise Malkin. He is such a puke, and a weasel. He was pretty quiet on all fronts through the first 3 games, but once he got his first goal of the series, it seemed to get his blood pumping. Since then, he has headhunted Grossmann with a blind-side headshot, tried to castrate Couturier with his stick, and also blindsided Couturier up high away from the puck. This has been Malkin's MO for years, and you'll notice he only strikes other players when they are not looking. Slash, trip, punch, high-hits, and only to players who are distracted and looking the other way.
-Speaking of Grossman, he skated yesterday. I suppose there's a small chance he could play, though that would be awfully quick after an unofficial concussion. The Flyers could definitely use his size and shot blocking.
-JVR returned the lineup, but only played 7:31, the least of any forward. Hopefully he's well enough to play more minutes and carry the puck. Lilja and Kubina actually played fewer minutes, as obviously Laviolette doesn't trust them right now.
Thursday, April 19, 2012
Penguins Game 4 Review
Well that didn't go as planned.
I suppose it was the Flyers turn to wilt as the game went on. The Flyers took the early lead due on early PPs due to some very tight officiating, and then the Penguins took the game away, capitalizing on an endless stream of penalties.
Aside from that, the Flyers took their foot of the gas pedal tonight, and the Penguins simply played focused hockey. The question will be, did the Penguins regain control of themselves in time? Probably not. If they don't win game 5, what happened tonight is merely an inconsequential blip on the radar.
It will be interesting to see what happens with the Penguins back on home ice. Nothing surprises me in this series anymore. The Flyers would do well to simply forget the whole game, and dig in for a trip into enemy territory.
Notes:
-A major issue is the health of Grossmann. He took 2 illegal headshots, and left the game early with an "upper body injury." This is the first;
My mortal enemy, Malkin has finally emerged this series. Gets his first goal, and on his next shift throws his first dirty check of the series. This is a blatant attempt to blindside a player in the head, and is clearly illegal under Rule 48.1, illegal check to the head. Malkin threw out his shoulder in a completely gratuitous fashion, and there is no excuse. So intent is Malkin on headhunting, that his lunge to do so caused him to fall down after the hit.
Grossmann may have survived this hit, but then he took another one.
This hit by Kennedy is not as gratuitous, but it also walks the line of illegal high hit to the head. The NHL puts quite a bit of emphasis on injury sustained, so any claims the Flyers may have for supplementary discipline may be mooted by the fact that neither hit was individually responsible for the injury.
If Grossman flops, or if he is hit by someone other than Malkin, a suspension is likely for a clearly predatory and intentional hit to the head. As it is, the Flyers may be without their best shutdown defenseman while Malkin skates away without even a minor penalty to his name. Clearly the officials are still clueless on detecting headshots, as how can you miss a blatant headshot call in a game when you are calling every little ticky-tack penalty otherwise (20 minor penalty calls!)?
-Giroux did not play in the third period last night either. Hopefully just a precaution in a game that was out of reach.
-Bryzgalov was really fighting the puck last night. Moving slowly, to have no idea where the puck was after stopping a shot. If momentum means anything, Fleury got a hold of himself last night, while Bryzgalov got pulled. Nothing in this series is that tidy however.
-Before the series, I said scoring the first goal, crucial in today's NHL wouldn't matter much. I was a little off on that one, as scoring the first goal this series has been crucial--the team scoring first is 0-4 in this series.
-How crazy is this series? The next highest scoring playoff series this year is Detroit v. Nashville, who have combined for 19 goals in 4 games. The Flyers and Pens have combined for 20 goals in the first period, and 45 overall. I haven't even looked at the math for penalty minutes either, which is also off the charts.
I suppose it was the Flyers turn to wilt as the game went on. The Flyers took the early lead due on early PPs due to some very tight officiating, and then the Penguins took the game away, capitalizing on an endless stream of penalties.
Aside from that, the Flyers took their foot of the gas pedal tonight, and the Penguins simply played focused hockey. The question will be, did the Penguins regain control of themselves in time? Probably not. If they don't win game 5, what happened tonight is merely an inconsequential blip on the radar.
It will be interesting to see what happens with the Penguins back on home ice. Nothing surprises me in this series anymore. The Flyers would do well to simply forget the whole game, and dig in for a trip into enemy territory.
Notes:
-A major issue is the health of Grossmann. He took 2 illegal headshots, and left the game early with an "upper body injury." This is the first;
My mortal enemy, Malkin has finally emerged this series. Gets his first goal, and on his next shift throws his first dirty check of the series. This is a blatant attempt to blindside a player in the head, and is clearly illegal under Rule 48.1, illegal check to the head. Malkin threw out his shoulder in a completely gratuitous fashion, and there is no excuse. So intent is Malkin on headhunting, that his lunge to do so caused him to fall down after the hit.
Grossmann may have survived this hit, but then he took another one.
This hit by Kennedy is not as gratuitous, but it also walks the line of illegal high hit to the head. The NHL puts quite a bit of emphasis on injury sustained, so any claims the Flyers may have for supplementary discipline may be mooted by the fact that neither hit was individually responsible for the injury.
If Grossman flops, or if he is hit by someone other than Malkin, a suspension is likely for a clearly predatory and intentional hit to the head. As it is, the Flyers may be without their best shutdown defenseman while Malkin skates away without even a minor penalty to his name. Clearly the officials are still clueless on detecting headshots, as how can you miss a blatant headshot call in a game when you are calling every little ticky-tack penalty otherwise (20 minor penalty calls!)?
-Giroux did not play in the third period last night either. Hopefully just a precaution in a game that was out of reach.
-Bryzgalov was really fighting the puck last night. Moving slowly, to have no idea where the puck was after stopping a shot. If momentum means anything, Fleury got a hold of himself last night, while Bryzgalov got pulled. Nothing in this series is that tidy however.
-Before the series, I said scoring the first goal, crucial in today's NHL wouldn't matter much. I was a little off on that one, as scoring the first goal this series has been crucial--the team scoring first is 0-4 in this series.
-How crazy is this series? The next highest scoring playoff series this year is Detroit v. Nashville, who have combined for 19 goals in 4 games. The Flyers and Pens have combined for 20 goals in the first period, and 45 overall. I haven't even looked at the math for penalty minutes either, which is also off the charts.
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
A Simple Fix for NHL Suspensions
People are pretty irate about this week's Shanabans, and I think it reflects a pretty simple disconnect in the NHL's "supplementary discipline" system.
First let me start by saying I think this year's regime is a big improvement from last season. The NHL wheel-of-justice was unpredictable and opaque last season. Under Shanahan this year, that has been greatly improved.
This year the NHL has been doling out justice under a pretty clear test. There are several factors that dictate a decision on whether a player should be suspended, and for how long:
1) Was the action per se illegal? Was it a charge, elbow, etc...
2) Does the victim of the play bear any responsibility? Did he make a last minute move that the checker did not anticipate, worsening the risk on the play?
3) Is the aggressor a repeat offender?
4) Did the victim suffer an injury?
[5) Was either player a "star"? This is more of an unspoken factor.]
Most of these factors are good. What is really riling people up is the 4th factor--resulting injury. There are A LOT of fans that think it shouldn't be a factor at all (myself included). Even worse, the NHL seems to put quite a bit of weight on this factor when determining suspension length. As a result, on plays that seemed to lack intent but result in an injury, the NHL hands down significant ban, but on plays that looked ridiculously dirty but resulted in no injury, the punishment is light or non-existent.
The best solutions are the simplest. Therefore, to improve the system, I say the NHL should merely eliminate or greatly reduce the weight placed on the 4th factor, and a new factor in the test, malicious intent.
Malicious intent is what fans are getting caught-up on in reviewing plays. The natural reaction of fans is to say "that was so dirty, just a blatant attempt to injure." It's perverse that fans should, on the one hand, feel relief that their player didn't get hurt, but must resign themselves to fact that the culprit on the other team will be getting off light for the same reason.
I suspect the NHL has resisted using intent in the past because it is inherently subjective. No player is going to admit after the fact that he was simply looking to hurt somebody. That should not prevent the NHL from judging intent. Forgive me for the lawyer-speak, but that is my trade by day, but there are several indicia of intent that the NHL can refer to to judge intent.
Indicia of intent would be things like relation to any valid hockey purpose, history between the players/teams, actions preceding the play, and time and score of game.
Take some recent examples. Hagelin gets three games because he gets his elbow up on Alfedsson in a tight game, causing injury to one Ottawa's stars. Under the above test, a 3 game suspension is not unreasonable. However, decreasing emphasis on the injury to Alfredsson and weighing Hagelin's intent, you get a different result. Hagelin appears to be making a hockey play, but he illegally got his elbows up. He has to answer for that, but malicious intent seems to be absent based on the circumstances. Now we're talking a 1-game suspension.
On the other hand, you have James Neal. After the game and series is seemingly out of reach, Neal throws a blatantly illegal check on Couturier, which is both interference for being late, and a charge for launching himself to hit Couturier high. On the ensuing shift, he stalks Giroux and hits him high as well, another illegal check. Neal was not penalized, and it appears no injuries were picked up. Neal also scored 40 goals this season and scored 2 nice goals in the same game. Under the old test, lots of factors are in Neal's favor. Weighing intent however, his hit on Couturier had no hockey purpose whatsoever, and the fact that he makes another illegal and dangerous check to Giroux just moments later is powerful evidence of intent. We're waiting for Neal's supplementary discipline ruling today, but it could be anything. Under my regime, we're talking at least 3 games for his undeniable intent to throw dirty hits.
Judging intent is difficult, but the NHL has to step up. As the NHL legislates on-the-ice justice out of the game, they are placing upon itself the responsibility to implement an effective system of justice. Based on the dirty hits thus far in the playoffs, their current system is lacking. It's okay for the NHL to go through growing pains in the process, but they have to keep moving and evolve the system. In the old days of street justice, players would make a snap judgment about intent, and immediately do something about it. There's no sense in denying or minimizing the factor of intent, and if the NHL is already implicitly weighing intent, they sure fooled me. I think you'd create a system that more effectively polices the players and leaves a lot of fans happier.
First let me start by saying I think this year's regime is a big improvement from last season. The NHL wheel-of-justice was unpredictable and opaque last season. Under Shanahan this year, that has been greatly improved.
This year the NHL has been doling out justice under a pretty clear test. There are several factors that dictate a decision on whether a player should be suspended, and for how long:
1) Was the action per se illegal? Was it a charge, elbow, etc...
2) Does the victim of the play bear any responsibility? Did he make a last minute move that the checker did not anticipate, worsening the risk on the play?
3) Is the aggressor a repeat offender?
4) Did the victim suffer an injury?
[5) Was either player a "star"? This is more of an unspoken factor.]
Most of these factors are good. What is really riling people up is the 4th factor--resulting injury. There are A LOT of fans that think it shouldn't be a factor at all (myself included). Even worse, the NHL seems to put quite a bit of weight on this factor when determining suspension length. As a result, on plays that seemed to lack intent but result in an injury, the NHL hands down significant ban, but on plays that looked ridiculously dirty but resulted in no injury, the punishment is light or non-existent.
The best solutions are the simplest. Therefore, to improve the system, I say the NHL should merely eliminate or greatly reduce the weight placed on the 4th factor, and a new factor in the test, malicious intent.
Malicious intent is what fans are getting caught-up on in reviewing plays. The natural reaction of fans is to say "that was so dirty, just a blatant attempt to injure." It's perverse that fans should, on the one hand, feel relief that their player didn't get hurt, but must resign themselves to fact that the culprit on the other team will be getting off light for the same reason.
I suspect the NHL has resisted using intent in the past because it is inherently subjective. No player is going to admit after the fact that he was simply looking to hurt somebody. That should not prevent the NHL from judging intent. Forgive me for the lawyer-speak, but that is my trade by day, but there are several indicia of intent that the NHL can refer to to judge intent.
Indicia of intent would be things like relation to any valid hockey purpose, history between the players/teams, actions preceding the play, and time and score of game.
Take some recent examples. Hagelin gets three games because he gets his elbow up on Alfedsson in a tight game, causing injury to one Ottawa's stars. Under the above test, a 3 game suspension is not unreasonable. However, decreasing emphasis on the injury to Alfredsson and weighing Hagelin's intent, you get a different result. Hagelin appears to be making a hockey play, but he illegally got his elbows up. He has to answer for that, but malicious intent seems to be absent based on the circumstances. Now we're talking a 1-game suspension.
On the other hand, you have James Neal. After the game and series is seemingly out of reach, Neal throws a blatantly illegal check on Couturier, which is both interference for being late, and a charge for launching himself to hit Couturier high. On the ensuing shift, he stalks Giroux and hits him high as well, another illegal check. Neal was not penalized, and it appears no injuries were picked up. Neal also scored 40 goals this season and scored 2 nice goals in the same game. Under the old test, lots of factors are in Neal's favor. Weighing intent however, his hit on Couturier had no hockey purpose whatsoever, and the fact that he makes another illegal and dangerous check to Giroux just moments later is powerful evidence of intent. We're waiting for Neal's supplementary discipline ruling today, but it could be anything. Under my regime, we're talking at least 3 games for his undeniable intent to throw dirty hits.
Judging intent is difficult, but the NHL has to step up. As the NHL legislates on-the-ice justice out of the game, they are placing upon itself the responsibility to implement an effective system of justice. Based on the dirty hits thus far in the playoffs, their current system is lacking. It's okay for the NHL to go through growing pains in the process, but they have to keep moving and evolve the system. In the old days of street justice, players would make a snap judgment about intent, and immediately do something about it. There's no sense in denying or minimizing the factor of intent, and if the NHL is already implicitly weighing intent, they sure fooled me. I think you'd create a system that more effectively polices the players and leaves a lot of fans happier.
Sunday, April 15, 2012
Penguins Game 3 Review
"[The Flyers] seem to bring out the worst in me."
-Sidney Crosby, 4/2/2012
I was a little nervous going into this game, for two reasons. One, the Flyers were terrible in day games this season, with even worse first periods than usual. Second, I said after game one that the Pens were being distracted by trying to hit too much and punish the Flyers physically, and I thought being on the road they might tone it down and played more poised hockey. Neither of those occurred.
The Pens got an early gift goal from Bryzgalov, but then on a PP (for what appeared to be a phantom high sticking call), Giroux made a good play shorthanded, and Fleury put the puck in his own net trying to cover a loose puck. It was all downhill from there.
As the game wore on, the Penguins became a total embarrassment. Asham's high crosscheck to Schenn (and punch to the back of the head while Schenn is defenseless and face down on the ice) after Schenn made a perfectly legal check was a disgrace. Things got worse, as another melee was caused when Crosby was determined to cause trouble, slashing Bryzgalov after he covered the puck, prodding Voracek and hassling Timonen until Giroux finally stepped in and went with him. Letang beat up Timonen (whom I've never seen fight) then petulantly tried to shoosh the crowd.
Apparently that wasn't enough, as Neal threw 2 dirty hits in the space of a minute after the game was out of reach. He launched himself at Couturier well after the puck was gone, and quite frankly it would've been an illegal charge even if Cooter still had the puck. As it was, it was an indefensible hit. Then he stayed on the ice and hit Giroux in the head with another late hit. At the ensuing stoppage Crosby was grabbing Hartnell (apparently to keep him away from Neal), and when Hartnell engaged Crosby, Adams starting punching him in the back of the head. Once the two squared to fight and grappled, Adams starting pulling Hartnell's hair. What is this? A lunch time scrap between middle school girls? Ridiculous.
The NHL would be wise to suspend both Asham and Neal for this nonsense. For one, their actions merit suspension in any scenario. Second, the outcome of the series is all but settled, and the NHL should reel it in rather than invite more cheapshots or score-settling in an inconsequential game.
The Penguins should be embarrassed enough by allowing 20 goals in three games to their hated rival, in a series in which they were favored. I guess that wasn't enough, and they've turned themselves into a farce. This series was there for the taking for them, with 3-0 and 2-0 leads in the first two games. The Pens were unable to control their passion and quite frankly lost their cool and their minds trying to prove something, and they psyched themselves out of the series. Crosby was definitely right with the quote above.
Notes:
-I hope Couturier, Giroux and Schenn are okay after absorbing cheapshots. Giroux appeared woozy and stumbled after being hit by Neal.
-It shouldn't be lost in the shuffle that Bryzgalov let in 2 terrible goals again today. He's looking leaky and his 5-hole has been gigantic. This series is a goalie's nightmare, but this will have to tighten up against the likes of the Rangers and Bruins.
-With 20 goals, the Flyers have scored several more goals than any other series has featured COMBINED between the two teams.
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