First, here's my latest PHSI model to rate each team.
As always, rankings need to be taken with a grain of salt and manually adjusted for recent performance and injuries. As it is, this model puts Washington, Minnesota and Anaheim as the top contenders. This is noteworthy because Minnesota and Anaheim are not teams generally seen as contenders around the league.
East
Caps - Leafs: Caps in 5
This Capitals team looks like the most complete team in the NHL. They have no real weaknesses, while the Leafs seem more like the "just happy to be here" type of team. Easy pick in my opinion.
Pens - Jackets: Pens in 7
My model says this series is a toss-up, and most agree it's pretty hard to predict. The Pens have the star power and are defending champs, while the Jackets surprised everyone this year and Bobrovsky is the favorite to win the Vezina. The Pens will be without Letang, but the Jackets come in pretty cold; they are 1-5-1 in their last 7, and have scored 2 or fewer goals in 8 of their last 11 games. Getting Werenski back from an injury for the playoffs will help, but when in doubt I'm going with the champs.
Bruins - Sens: Bruins in 6
Can we just cancel this series? Two of the weaker teams in the playoffs, coming from the weakest division in hockey. There's little reason to be excited about either team's prospects. Boston, however, is pretty strong in faceoffs, possession and the penalty kill, but have had a horrific PDO this year. They also have some injuries on defense now. In spite of that, Rask finished decently while the Senators are the only playoff team with a negative overall goal differential. The Bruins look like a better bet.
Habs - Rangers: Habs in 5
It's hard to get excited about this Rangers team that appears to be on the downswing. Additionally, Lundqvist is having the worst year of his career. Meanwhile, Claude Julien has taken over the Habs, and since March 1, Price's save percentage is at .933 and the PK is at 89%. That is daunting for New York.
West
Wild - Blues: Wild in 7
My model says the Wild are the clear favorite, but I think most would say this series is close. The big problem for the Wild is that Dubnyk has been crappy down the stretch--.895 save percentage since March 1. The Blues, on the other hand, are pretty uninspiring and have shed stars like Oshie, Shattenkirk and Backes in recent years, but they finished strong after a mid-season coaching change (.941 save percentage for Allen since March 1!!). I'll stick with Minnesota though.
Oilers - Sharks: Oilers in 7
The stats peg these teams pretty close together, and it's hard to choose one over the other. One thing going on is that both Joe Thornton and Logan Couture are dealing with injures and their status is uncertain. Given those injuries and a weak finish (4-9 in last 13), I'll take the Edmonton McDavids.
Hawks - Predators: Predators in 7
Okay, here's the tough one for me. My model says edge to Nashville, but EVERYONE is picking the Hawks. That is not surprising given their star power and past success, and then finished with the most points in the west. The problem for the Hawks is that their score-adjusted SOG differential is pretty meh, and their penalty kill is awful. It is rare for a team with a bad penalty kill to make a run in the playoffs, and that includes this Hawks dynasty in the years they lost in the first round. Also, the numbers (faceoffs, penalty differential, SOG differential) say the Predators might be better at carrying 5v5 play. The Hawks also finished 3-3-4, while Pekka Rinne is hot (.932 save percentage since March 1). That's it, I've talked myself into--I'm going Preds.
Ducks - Flames: Ducks in 6
The Ducks rate highly in my model, although they're now down their #1 defenseman with the Cam Fowler injury. Maybe the Ducks aren't as good as the model suggests, but they're always tough in the playoffs, and the Flames might be the worst team in the playoffs.
