Monthly Update

Another month has passed, and things are more uncertain in Flyerdom.  First the season numbers;

Goals - 3.48/game (1st, +1 spot from last month)
Goals against - 2.91/g (19th, +9)
Faceoffs - 46.9% (29th, even)
Power play - 17.6% (12th, -6)
Penalty kill - 83.5% (14th, +4)
Shots For - 31.5/g (8th, -2)
Shots Against - 28.7 (7th, -5)

Watching the Flyers, one wouldn't think they've tightened up defensively, but there's the numbers for goals against.  Even with the improvement, they are still in the bottom half of the league.  That's something that needs to be addressed, as they are still prone to look awful in their own end--it happened in the first period against the Islanders and Jets, two of the worst teams in the league.

The  real story of late is Pronger's newest surgery.  Putting aside the ridiculousness of the Flyers injuries reports and treatments, and that after missing a week with "a virus" he will have knee surgery, this is getting into scary territory with Pronger's health.  Last year, he missed most of January, March, and the playoffs.  This year, he missed training camp, and now is out again.  I believe he is up to 5 surgeries since summer 2010.

Before the season I wrote that the Flyers should be concerned about relying on three, injury prone veterans; Pronger, Timonen and Jagr.  Well here we are, with Pronger out for a month and Jagr with a groin issue.  Timonen also will be forced to increase his minutes, raising his risk of injury.  There's not really anything the Flyers can do about this now, but this should make all Flyers fans very nervous.  Is Pronger's body breaking down?  Repeated knee and back issues certainly suggest as much.  Personally, I don't think the Flyers can make a playoff run with Pronger in and out of the lineup, so let's hope that's not the case.

The Flyers need Meszaros and Carle to step up.  Actually, they need Meszaros just to return to his form last year.  This year he has made a lot of coverage errors down low, though Meszaros has the combination of size and skill of a top pair defensemen if he can steady his play.  Timonen is a wily player, but a 36 year old, 5'10" defensemen can only take so much abuse.

Other Notes
-Nodl was waived, then claimed by Carolina.  I shed no tears, as I have pretty much run out of patience with Nodl.  When he came up I was pretty impressed with his skating and defensive responsibility, which are often two big question marks with young scorers.  Time, however, has shown that he can't score at the pro level.  Aside from a good start last year, he has been a total offensive black hole.  He was nothing more than an extra body for the Flyers forward corps, and with the emergence of Read, Couturier, Rinaldo, and Harry Z, he was spare parts.

-With the Ducks off to a terrible start, a change was coming.  The only question was if the change would be a trade (likely Bobby Ryan) or a coaching change.  We now know it was the coach.  The Flyers' name always came up for Ryan, a player they've always liked.  Former number 2 pick, from South Jersey with ties to the organization, power forward, 3 straight 30 goal season, still only 24...there's a lot to like there.  It made little sense from an organizational standpoint though.  Simply put, the Flyers are up against the cap--why would they add a big scorer salary (which would require other salary dumps to accommodate) when they have no problem scoring?  They need defensemen.

I saw a rumor today on the internet (which may be completely false) that the Flyers had agreed to trade Schenn and 2 picks for Ryan, but Boudreau would only sign as a coach if Ryan was still there.  I have my doubts about this whole scenario, but stranger things have happened.  Presumably, the Ryan trade talk will cool down for everyone for a while, and I just want to see Schenn play for the Flyers.  Fortunately that will start tonight.

It's officially over

As expected, the Bruins series ended promptly this year.  It was a comprehensive thrashing.    There's really not much else to say about it, other than that it shouldn't be all that surprising given the way they looked at the end the season in general; disorganized defensively, tentative, physically unassertive.

I wanted to believe the Flyers would shape up and return to midseason form after some inspired play against Buffalo, but that proved to be a temporary flash against an inferior opponent.

Quick season review:
What went right?
-Giroux emerged as the best player on the team.

-JVR took a big step forward, and should be a key player next year.

-The Meszaros transaction worked out great, being the team's best defense from start to finish this year.  He is signed for 3 more years at $4m per and looks to be the heir apparent to leading the defense as Pronger's and Timonen's ice time declines due to age.

-Bobrovsky showed a lot of promise, with his best hockey coming in November.  That said, I strongly believe his NHL game is not a finished product, and there's no way I'd enter next season with him as the undisputed number 1.

-Nodl's first half.

-The defense was much stronger 1-6, at least when the roster was healthy.

What went wrong?
-Pronger had a mediocre regular season, had injury problems, and essentially missed the end of the season and playoffs.  Honestly I didn't care too much about his regular season because he's a playoff player, but that didn't really work out this year, did it.

-Timonen had his worst season as a Flyer, particularly in the playoffs.  Along with Pronger, questions have to be asked how much their skills will diminish in the next season or two and if they are breaking down.  Timonen is 36 years old and said it himself that he only has so many season in his "stumpy legs."  Maybe he was just playing injured in the playoffs...we'll have to see.

-Richards had an uninspiring regular season, and a particularly disappointing playoffs.  I still say he was injured/out-of-shape.  I hope for his sake it was injured and not the latter.  There's also a lot of chatter about his lack of leadership, but I know nothing about what is really happening in "the room", so I can't speak to that.

-The Versteeg trade is looking like a real dud.  He played a little better in the playoffs, but never contributing in any significant way.  He will have to do better next year to earn the $3m cap hit, or the Flyers should start looking to remedy the mistake of acquiring him in the first place.

-Nodl's second half, the return of Andreas No-Goal.

-Goaltending was not good enough.  It was rendered irrelevant in the Boston series, but the Flyers eeked by a much inferior Buffalo team after what was, taken collectively, probably the worst goaltending performance in a playoff series I've ever seen.

-The power play was really bad, somewhat inexplicably so.

-The Hartnell-Briere-Leino line lost its mojo in the second half of the season.  For last year's playoffs and the first half this year, they were pretty easily the Flyers best 5v5 line, manufacturing scoring chances and pinning in the other team.  Just as an example, Leino's 6 points in 11 playoff games this year is a far cry from his 21 in 19 games last year.

-100 straight games without a shutout.  It's hard to pin down the exact reasons for this, but I say roughly 2/3rds goaltending and 1/3 poor defensive zone coverage and lapses.  Much of a shutout is solid defense combined with a flawless performance by a goalie.



There is really no clear path forward for the Flyers.  That's not to say they're all of a sudden a bad team, I just mean that management could go in several completely different directions.  The only move I think they HAVE to make is a meaningful solution in goal.  What they should do with the skaters however (and if they should shake up the lineup) is very subjective, but almost nothing is off the table.

Baby Steps

Put the Chara hit aside for a moment, which has everyone hyperventilating, and last night was a good step in the right direction for the Flyers last night. Second win in a row, after a fairly sleepy win over the atrocious Oilers.

More importantly, the Flyers were skating harder for the entire game. It was still a close game where the Flyers benefited from a garbage goal, but the Flyers generated more chances, hit a few posts, and looked a little more purposeful on the power play.

Individual player thoughts;

-Really could stuff from Carter, using his speed and size, and evidently filling a need the Flyers have really missed recently.

-Carcillo has likely earned his spot in the lineup for the time being, as there's no reason to take him out for Nodl or Zherdev.

-I'm not really pleased with Richards offensive zone play. Overhandling the puck, and constantly trying very low percentage diagonal passes, especially on the PP.

-No Pronger, and apparently he let loose after the Oilers win, not being satisfied. Apparently Giroux was one of his targets? Not sure. I wouldn't say Giroux was bad against the Oilers, though he did pass up many good shooting opportunities for bad passing decisions.

Chara

The Chara controversy is still boiling. Probably influenced by the fact that it happened in Montreal to a hometown player, the PM of Canada is commenting, Air Canada is making threats about abandoning the league, and there is an open police investigation.

People need to simmer down. My opinion of the hit hasn't changed since my last post, where I said Chara bears some responsibility for not better recognizing his surroundings and letting up, but there just isn't much evidence of intent on a freak occurrence. In particular, a criminal investigation where the police would have to show Chara did something well beyond the type of contact a hockey player accepts the risk for AND that Chara intended to injure, seems like a complete waste of time. Still, the NHL doesn't look good by giving him no suspension whatsoever, and Bettman makes d-bag comments responding to Air Canada.

As lawyers say, bad facts make bad law, ie if we attempt to tailor rules to a freak or unusual circumstance, the rule ultimately doesn't work very well when applied elsewhere down the road. The NHL has to take a hard look at many things revolving around league discipline, head injuries, and IMO Bettman's leadership for on-ice issues, but this is not a good hit to make a rallying cry around league actions for head injuries. That said, no one is happy with league discipline actions, and it should be addressed in a meaningful way in the offseason (IMO house cleaning of leadership positions, but that's a topic for another day).

Flyers trade for Kris Versteeg

I am caught a little off-guard by this one. I have heard some rumors about the Flyers talking to the Leafs for a trade, maybe for Giguere, maybe for Versteeg, but there never seemed to be enough momentum to any deal to think anything was imminent, and thus worthy of being passed on to the loyal Mostly Flyers readership.

I just didn't see the Flyers and Leafs interests aligning, and I'm still not sure I do. The Leafs are clearly in rebuild mode, looking for youngsters and picks. The Flyers have few of both, but they decided to part some of the few picks they have.

Versteeg is a quality young player. He can play anywhere in the lineup, in all situations, and was a valuable member of the Hawks during their cup run. But did the Flyers need another forward? They seem to have enough trouble spreading around the ice time for the forwards they already have.

I presume Versteeg will be playing with Richards, and Nodl or JVR will be bumped off their spot there. Or I guess they could use him to stabilize the Carter-Giroux line that has seen Zherdev pass through. Either way, Nodl or JVR will be fighting for their ice time, and Zherdev and Carcillo are one step further out to the fringe of the squad.

The good news is that the Flyers didn't lose anything off their roster for this season. It appears they're going all-in for this season, and this may have been the best acquisition available to them to improve this year's squad (even if Versteeg is something of a luxury for a team that is already deep at forward). Goalie is their obvious achilles heel, but there may not have been any good options out there. I would've liked to see Erik Cole too, but I have to think acquiring Versteeg is the end of that.

Lastly, Versteeg is signed for next season at approximately $3 million. Hmm, exactly the same amount the Flyers have reportedly offered to Ville Leino... And then there's this report from over the weekend;

Meanwhile, contract talks with left wing Ville Leino appear to have stalled. The Flyers are believed to have offered Leino three- and four-year contract extensions worth $3 million a season. Leino, who is making $800,000 and is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1, apparently believes he is worth more on the open market.

The writing is on the wall for Leino's future with the Flyers I think.

Flyers do some tweaking

The Flyers have waived Matt Walker, removing his $1.7 million salary from their cap hit.

Panaccio also tweets;

As I speculated weeks ago, sources say the Flyers would make a play for Erik Cole at deadline. Walker move may be start

CAR would not deal Cole if Rutherford feels he has a chance. Month away from deadline but #Flyers are interested in him

Erik Cole is 32 years old, pending UFA with a $2.9 million cap hit. He's not a high end scorer, but he complements high end players well, and can be a physical and productive player in that role. His best years came when playing with Eric Staal in Carolina, under then Carolina coach Peter Laviolette.

I have no reason to doubt what Panaccio reports. The trickier part is where the teams can meet on a deal. As with the Langenbrunner trade interest, the Flyers forward situation remains crowded, and they don't have much trade bait. What Carolina wants back in a trade could vary widely by how close they are to a playoff spot.

Aside from the Flyers probably throwing some picks to Carolina, the most easily identifiable trade candidates on the Flyers are Carcillo, Zherdev and Nodl. Personally, I wouldn't trade Nodl. He's young, cheap, is one of the best skaters on the team, strong on the puck, and is smart and very good defensively. Second, I really can't see the Canes having much interest in Carcillo, though I could be wrong there.

That leaves Zherdev. The chances of him resigning with the Flyers are very low I think. He's scored some pretty goals this year, but hasn't yet staked out a clear role on this team. Might Zherdev's high-end offensive ability tempt the Canes? Possible.

Zherdev and a mid-round pick for Cole seems the most plausible possibility to me. Either way, no trade will be imminent, and both the Flyers and Canes will see how things play out the next few weeks and reassess their needs and options.

Report Card Day

Little did I realize, but the Flyers play their 42nd game tonight. Therefore it is very important to give out midseason grades immediately, lest they lose their eminence.

As a team, things have gone pretty much as well as anyone could've expected. ESPN seems to think highly of them.

Summary: The Flyers are without question the cream of the crop in the Eastern Conference. Even without veteran defenseman Chris Pronger, who should return from injury in the near future, the Flyers haven't missed a beat. They have great balance up front and steady netminding from Renaissance man Brian Boucher. Fewest road losses in the NHL also illustrate the team's maturity. Grade: A-plus. Trending: Up.

So there's that, and not much else to say.

As for players, without doing the tiresome grade for each one;

Thumbs Up

-Leino, killing it

-JVR, coming on and the team will be thrilled if he keeps it up

-Boucher, (see JVR)

-Briere, looking like the player everybody hoped for when signing the big contract

-Hartnell, doing his job well

-Giroux, breakthrough first third, needs to rev it back up.

-Meszaros, outperforming Carle and Coburn

-Nodl, ~20 goal pace for no-goal Nodl!

-Bobs, great start, will need to re-find that form to help Boucher

Holding steady, check back at playoff time

Pronger, Timonen, Richards, Carter, Carle, Coburn, O'Donnell, Betts

*shrugs*

Shelley, Carcillo, Bartulis, Zherdev

Random thought:

The Flyers will have a two-headed monster in net for the foreseeable future, would it be incredibly corny to nickname said beast Bobby Boucher/Waterboy?

Stop and Smell the Roses - 11/23

-For the second game in a row, the Flyers had a truly awful first period. Not a recipe for success, but pretty impressive that they got 4 points out of such games, which came against 2 of the best teams in the conference.

-It took the Flyers 68 shots, and a 21 shot period, to finally score on Carey Price this season. I'll say it now--I'm a big believer in this guy, and predict he will be one of the best goalies of his generation. I'm not an avid WJC watcher, but from what I have seen, he is hands-down the best goalie I've seen at that level. No matter how good the chance, he's always one step ahead and everything seems to hit him in the chest. Perhaps things have clicked for him at the NHL level (after some admittedly worrying concerns about work ethic the last 2 years).

-Speaking of clicking, things seems to have clicked for Nodl; he is skating hard, playing with confidence, and *gulp*, scoring goals. Good to see from a player who's excellent defensively and was a high end scorer in college and a 2nd round pick.

-As for JVR, after being benched for a few games, he finally got a goal last night. He's been buzzing around the offensive zone the last few games, hitting a few posts before scoring. I don't think he's found his identity in the NHL yet, but I would suspect he'll carry on that strong play for several more games, at least.

Sometimes young players have to hit a low early in their NHL career and they come back with a vengeance. This happened with Mike Richards, who hit a big dry spell in his second season, missed nearly 2 months with a hernia, and has pretty much been a point/game guy since returning from that injury. Here, I made a graph, because graphs are awesome, showing the rather dramatic turnaround for Richards after hitting his lowpoint, then things 'click' for him.

Is it worth mentioning that Richards and JVR had nearly identical points/game their rookie seasons? 11g 23a is 79gp for Richards, 15g, 20a in 78gp for JVR.

-Boucher is nothing more than a streaky backup goalie at this point, but man his low glove side stinks.

-As expected, nothing came off the Richards-Subban "controversy" last night.