Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Updated Cap Outlook

My current projection (with assumptions) for Flyers cap next year:

Forwards
Leino? (???) -Briere (6.5) -Hartnell (4.2)
Versteeg (3.083) -Richards (5.75) -JVR (1.654)
Nodl [.8925] -Carter (5.27) -Giroux (3.75)
Powe [.761] -Betts (.7) -Shelley (1.1)
Total: 33.6605

D
Pronger (4.9) - Carle (3.4)
Timo (6.3) - Coburn (3.2)
Mesz (4)-O'Donnell [1]
Bartulis (.571)
Total: 23.371

Goal
Bobo (1.75)
Total: 1.75

Overall: 58.7815
Cap 10-11 - $59.4

Assumptions
-Nodl and Powe will accept the Flyers' minimum RFA qualifying offers
-O'Donnell will resign for the same amount.
-The following players will not be on the roster next year.
Laperriere
Carcillo
Walker
Zherdev
Boucher
Leighton
-The cap next year will go up by a few million. Let's say it goes up by $3.6 to an even $63 million.

So, given all these assumptions, the Flyers will have approximately $4.2185 million in cap space to sign Leino, a #13 forward, and a backup goalie. The Flyers have also indicated in the past that they want to enter the season with at least $1 million in cap space to provide some flexibility during the season. That would reduce the functional signing space to $3.2185 million.

If the Flyers sign a #13 forward and a backup goalie for $700k each, they will have $1.8185 to sign Leino or another everyday forward. This math also assumes a very modest increase for Nodl, which may be unlikely.

Or, in other words, the Flyers plan on trading Carle in the offseason, or the team has already given up trying to retain Leino.

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