Of all the offseason maneuvering the Flyers did this season, the Richards trade makes me the most nervous. This is because Richards is the largest piece actually removed from the roster in all the moves.
Schenn is a very, very highly rated prospect, and scouts have actually compared him to Mike Richards as a player. In trying to forecast what to expect to Schenn this season, I think it makes sense to compare the players side at the same points in their career.
Mike Richards
-drafted 24th in 2003 (one of the best draft classes ever)
-highly successful junior career on a very good junior team (reg season--292pts in 233 games, playoffs--56 pts in 41 games)
-10 points in 12 career WJC games, including captaining one of the best WJC teams ever and playing on the third line (no doubt Crosby was the #1 center on that team)
-at age 20, joined AHL season late, and had 15 points in 14 playoffs games as Phantoms and won the AHL cup
-34 points in 79 games as 21 year old rookie as number 3 center
Brayden Schenn
-drafted 5th in 2009 draft
-315 points in 224 junior games (51 points in 42 playoff games)
-26 points in 13 WJC games
-at age 20, joined AHL season late, and scored 11 points in 12 games (playoffs plus reg season games)
-as a 21 year old rookie in the number 3 center slot....???
The resumes are pretty comparable. Schenn was drafted higher, though the 2003 draft was incredibly deep--Richards wouldn't drop so low in other years. Comparable junior and AHL records too, but Schenn is coming off an incredible WJC performance.
From the little I seen of Schenn, he looks a little slipperier and quicker on the puck, though I couldn't comment how his defensive and checking games compares to Richards.
You never quite know what you are going to get from a rookie, but it may be wise to expect comparable production from Schenn this year as Richards produced in his rookie season. Hopefully he'll do even better. How Schenn does long term however, and if he makes Flyers fans forget Mike Richards, will likely be the legacy of this crazy offseason for the Flyers
Opinions on NHL topics of the moment, but mostly on the Flyers.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
The Most Interesting Offseason in the World
The free agent frenzy is quieting down now, and you can take stock of most things.
The big point overall is that UFAs this year made a killing. Players were getting 30% more than a comparable player would've gotten 2 years ago. I think it's mostly due the to fact that it was a generally weak free agent group coming in a year where the salary cap increased more than expected. And then you have a team like Florida spending money like a drunken sailor in a whorehouse on decent but unspectacular players simply to get to the cap floor that compounded the perverted market.
For the Flyers, the Extreme Makeover continues. Out with the Canadian golden boys, in with puck possession eastern europeans, a Russian goalie, and a black guy. Despite a bunch of rumors of something bigger like Brad Richards, Stamkos, or a big trade, the Flyers mostly stuck to the expected game plan. Mostly.
The most "predictable" move was adding a 3rd/4th line character guy. The Flyers needed some experience in that area, and the team has commented that they need a "new Laperriere" to provide leadership and character in that role. Max Talbot seems to fit that bill, the only surprise being that he comes from the Penguins.
Speaking of the Penguins, there was that signing of Jagr the other day. Now nearly everyone expected the Flyers to be looking at wingers, maybe Erik Cole or Michael Ryder, but no one was taking about Jagr to the Flyers until the day before free agency. Apparently the Flyers pursuit of him didn't even start until then until Holmgren speculatively sent a text to former flyer Petr Svoboda, who is the agent for Jagr and Voracek.
Jagr will be a very interesting case. He'll turn 40 in midseason and will not be the dominant player of old, but he's remained productive in Russia and is coming off a very strong World Championships performance. It's easy to question whether an aging temperamental Euro star is a right fit on the Flyers, but Jagr seems more dedicated to training and staying in shape than ever before. Also he apparently did his homework and chose the Flyers (which were not the richest offer) after talking to the coaches and players. There's lots of reasons to be hopeful that Jagr will have a productive season, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him hit 60 points this season.
Lastly, there is the signing of Andreas Lilja. A cheap, depth defensemen for the 6/7 role.
Other Signings:
-Handzus to SJ for $2.5x2 years. Early in the day it was reported that the Flyers had signed Handzus, to which I was receptive. He would be a big centermen to play on the third line and would be a decent fit at the right price. Seems to me SJ got a good deal here for an aging though still valuable centermen.
-Upshall to Florida for $3.5x4. Wow, the first of many big overpayments on the day. This signing was the perfect marriage of a player who's not quite as good as he thinks he is (career highs; 22 goals and 34 points) with a team looking to overpay to get to the cap floor.
-Leino to Buffalo for $4.5x6. This is an outright shocker. I don't blame the Flyers for holding steady at a $3m deal, though I suspected someone else would come along and offer more. Just not that much more. Calendar year 2010 Leino, who scored 21 points in 19 playoff games and had a very strong first half of the ensuing regular season, was a player worthy of a deal approaching $4m a season. Calendar year 2011 Leino, not so much. While Leino is younger and better defensively than Jagr (though he's still not great defensively himself), what are the odds the Flyers get more points and goals from Jagr at $3.3m this year than Buffalo gets from Leino at $4.5?
-Cole to Montreal for $4.5x4. This is the guy who I wanted on the Flyers, and while that's not an outrageous price, it was still too high for the Flyers to entertain.
-Connolly to Leafs for $4.75x2. Connolly is a talented player who plays at near a point/game pace when healthy, but when is he ever healthy? He's only played 70 games once since the lockout, and here are his point totals the last 5 seasons; 1, 40, 47, 65, 42. This is a $5 million player now? At least it's only a 2 year deal.
-Vokoun to the Caps for $1.5x1. An outright steal for the Caps, as he fell into their laps when he didn't find a big money deal on July 1 and looked for a contender to join. Of course the Flyers could not have entered free agency and expected to get Vokoun for anywhere near this amount, but it still hurts to watch a competitor get such a quality goalie for so little salary, even if it was just luck.
Up Next for the Flyers:
-The Flyers don't have much cap space left. They likely have $3m or so in cap space left after signing Simmonds and making expected cuts, but they still need to carry a 19th or 20th skater and leave a little cap buffer.
-There are rumors the Flyers are sniffing around Jason Arnott. He would be of similar interest to the Flyers for the same reason as Handzus; a big third line center at this point of his career. He might want too much money though.
-The Stamkos rumors never go away with the Flyers. The latest is Schenn, Bobrovsky and 1st rounder for Stamkos. If there was no salary cap and this was purely about hockey, I definitely do this deal. Given the cap restraints however, the Flyers will likely have to dump more salary to fit Stamkos in (Hartnell or Carle maybe), and would not be in great shape next offseason allocating raises to JVR and Coburn, so it's ultimately a tough call. This is assuming of course the rumors are accurate and Stamkos doesn't simply resign with the Lightning.
The big point overall is that UFAs this year made a killing. Players were getting 30% more than a comparable player would've gotten 2 years ago. I think it's mostly due the to fact that it was a generally weak free agent group coming in a year where the salary cap increased more than expected. And then you have a team like Florida spending money like a drunken sailor in a whorehouse on decent but unspectacular players simply to get to the cap floor that compounded the perverted market.
For the Flyers, the Extreme Makeover continues. Out with the Canadian golden boys, in with puck possession eastern europeans, a Russian goalie, and a black guy. Despite a bunch of rumors of something bigger like Brad Richards, Stamkos, or a big trade, the Flyers mostly stuck to the expected game plan. Mostly.
The most "predictable" move was adding a 3rd/4th line character guy. The Flyers needed some experience in that area, and the team has commented that they need a "new Laperriere" to provide leadership and character in that role. Max Talbot seems to fit that bill, the only surprise being that he comes from the Penguins.
Speaking of the Penguins, there was that signing of Jagr the other day. Now nearly everyone expected the Flyers to be looking at wingers, maybe Erik Cole or Michael Ryder, but no one was taking about Jagr to the Flyers until the day before free agency. Apparently the Flyers pursuit of him didn't even start until then until Holmgren speculatively sent a text to former flyer Petr Svoboda, who is the agent for Jagr and Voracek.
Jagr will be a very interesting case. He'll turn 40 in midseason and will not be the dominant player of old, but he's remained productive in Russia and is coming off a very strong World Championships performance. It's easy to question whether an aging temperamental Euro star is a right fit on the Flyers, but Jagr seems more dedicated to training and staying in shape than ever before. Also he apparently did his homework and chose the Flyers (which were not the richest offer) after talking to the coaches and players. There's lots of reasons to be hopeful that Jagr will have a productive season, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him hit 60 points this season.
Lastly, there is the signing of Andreas Lilja. A cheap, depth defensemen for the 6/7 role.
Other Signings:
-Handzus to SJ for $2.5x2 years. Early in the day it was reported that the Flyers had signed Handzus, to which I was receptive. He would be a big centermen to play on the third line and would be a decent fit at the right price. Seems to me SJ got a good deal here for an aging though still valuable centermen.
-Upshall to Florida for $3.5x4. Wow, the first of many big overpayments on the day. This signing was the perfect marriage of a player who's not quite as good as he thinks he is (career highs; 22 goals and 34 points) with a team looking to overpay to get to the cap floor.
-Leino to Buffalo for $4.5x6. This is an outright shocker. I don't blame the Flyers for holding steady at a $3m deal, though I suspected someone else would come along and offer more. Just not that much more. Calendar year 2010 Leino, who scored 21 points in 19 playoff games and had a very strong first half of the ensuing regular season, was a player worthy of a deal approaching $4m a season. Calendar year 2011 Leino, not so much. While Leino is younger and better defensively than Jagr (though he's still not great defensively himself), what are the odds the Flyers get more points and goals from Jagr at $3.3m this year than Buffalo gets from Leino at $4.5?
-Cole to Montreal for $4.5x4. This is the guy who I wanted on the Flyers, and while that's not an outrageous price, it was still too high for the Flyers to entertain.
-Connolly to Leafs for $4.75x2. Connolly is a talented player who plays at near a point/game pace when healthy, but when is he ever healthy? He's only played 70 games once since the lockout, and here are his point totals the last 5 seasons; 1, 40, 47, 65, 42. This is a $5 million player now? At least it's only a 2 year deal.
-Vokoun to the Caps for $1.5x1. An outright steal for the Caps, as he fell into their laps when he didn't find a big money deal on July 1 and looked for a contender to join. Of course the Flyers could not have entered free agency and expected to get Vokoun for anywhere near this amount, but it still hurts to watch a competitor get such a quality goalie for so little salary, even if it was just luck.
Up Next for the Flyers:
-The Flyers don't have much cap space left. They likely have $3m or so in cap space left after signing Simmonds and making expected cuts, but they still need to carry a 19th or 20th skater and leave a little cap buffer.
-There are rumors the Flyers are sniffing around Jason Arnott. He would be of similar interest to the Flyers for the same reason as Handzus; a big third line center at this point of his career. He might want too much money though.
-The Stamkos rumors never go away with the Flyers. The latest is Schenn, Bobrovsky and 1st rounder for Stamkos. If there was no salary cap and this was purely about hockey, I definitely do this deal. Given the cap restraints however, the Flyers will likely have to dump more salary to fit Stamkos in (Hartnell or Carle maybe), and would not be in great shape next offseason allocating raises to JVR and Coburn, so it's ultimately a tough call. This is assuming of course the rumors are accurate and Stamkos doesn't simply resign with the Lightning.
Friday, July 1, 2011
Free Agent Madness
It begins today at noon.
The NHL free agent frenzy is pretty wild, with most of the big names signing within a few hours, and just about everyone of consequence gone within one day. With the Flyers passing on Stamkos (thank goodness), the Flyers will be looking to make some signings. Exactly how much money they feel like they can spend is uncertain, because they may still dump salary.
Possible FA targets;
-Brad Richards - Hard to see the Flyers fitting him in, though it wouldn't be as difficult as signing Stamkos. A top quality center, he will command a long term deal in the vicinity of $6m/year. Someone like the Rangers may outbid the others for him, though the Flyers have popped up as an interested party.
-Erik Cole - Probably my top choice for the Flyers to sign. Physical winger who can score his share of goals, though he has had injury problems in the past. It won't break the bank to sign him either.
-Simon Gagne - Familiar face would have to take a steep paycut from his expiring $5m/year deal the Flyers signed him to. In my opinion his days as a go-to goal scorer are gone because a level of aggression is gone from his game, and you can't score consistently without driving the net and going to scoring areas. Still could be a quality 2-way forward IF he can avoid injuries.
-Michael Ryder - His name has come up as a possible target of the Flyers. He can score some goals in the NHL, but "Easy Ryder" does find his way into coaches' doghouses at times.
-Michael Handzus - Another familiar face, who had some good seasons with the Flyers a few years ago. Big and slow, but maybe a good option as 3rd-line center? Would need to agree to a paycut too.
-Jamie Langenbrunner - A valuable 2-way winger for some time, his career is on the decline but may interest teams as a cheap veteran.
-John Madden - On the verge of retirement, had several good seasons a PK and faceoff specialist. Might not be looking for much money.
-Jaromir Jagr - Former MVP wants to come back to the NHL at 39 after three seasons in Russia. Could be a bargain as you'd think he's still good for 50 points or more with his skills, regardless of age.
-Ville Leino - He's a UFA now. I think the Flyers would like him back, but only at less than $3m/year. Someone else will probably give him more than that.
Someone always overpays on UFA day, and it may be even worse this year with several teams needed to spend to reach the cap floor. If a real bidding war erupts for a particular player, the Flyers will not be able to keep pace, but they have a little bit of money to spend and hopefully can find some value.
The NHL free agent frenzy is pretty wild, with most of the big names signing within a few hours, and just about everyone of consequence gone within one day. With the Flyers passing on Stamkos (thank goodness), the Flyers will be looking to make some signings. Exactly how much money they feel like they can spend is uncertain, because they may still dump salary.
Possible FA targets;
-Brad Richards - Hard to see the Flyers fitting him in, though it wouldn't be as difficult as signing Stamkos. A top quality center, he will command a long term deal in the vicinity of $6m/year. Someone like the Rangers may outbid the others for him, though the Flyers have popped up as an interested party.
-Erik Cole - Probably my top choice for the Flyers to sign. Physical winger who can score his share of goals, though he has had injury problems in the past. It won't break the bank to sign him either.
-Simon Gagne - Familiar face would have to take a steep paycut from his expiring $5m/year deal the Flyers signed him to. In my opinion his days as a go-to goal scorer are gone because a level of aggression is gone from his game, and you can't score consistently without driving the net and going to scoring areas. Still could be a quality 2-way forward IF he can avoid injuries.
-Michael Ryder - His name has come up as a possible target of the Flyers. He can score some goals in the NHL, but "Easy Ryder" does find his way into coaches' doghouses at times.
-Michael Handzus - Another familiar face, who had some good seasons with the Flyers a few years ago. Big and slow, but maybe a good option as 3rd-line center? Would need to agree to a paycut too.
-Jamie Langenbrunner - A valuable 2-way winger for some time, his career is on the decline but may interest teams as a cheap veteran.
-John Madden - On the verge of retirement, had several good seasons a PK and faceoff specialist. Might not be looking for much money.
-Jaromir Jagr - Former MVP wants to come back to the NHL at 39 after three seasons in Russia. Could be a bargain as you'd think he's still good for 50 points or more with his skills, regardless of age.
-Ville Leino - He's a UFA now. I think the Flyers would like him back, but only at less than $3m/year. Someone else will probably give him more than that.
Someone always overpays on UFA day, and it may be even worse this year with several teams needed to spend to reach the cap floor. If a real bidding war erupts for a particular player, the Flyers will not be able to keep pace, but they have a little bit of money to spend and hopefully can find some value.
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