Tuesday, July 5, 2011

The Most Interesting Offseason in the World

The free agent frenzy is quieting down now, and you can take stock of most things.

The big point overall is that UFAs this year made a killing.  Players were getting 30% more than a comparable player would've gotten 2 years ago.  I think it's mostly due the to fact that it was a generally weak free agent group coming in a year where the salary cap increased more than expected.  And then you have a team like Florida spending money like a drunken sailor in a whorehouse on decent but unspectacular players simply to get to the cap floor that compounded the perverted market.

For the Flyers, the Extreme Makeover continues.  Out with the Canadian golden boys, in with puck possession eastern europeans, a Russian goalie, and a black guy.  Despite a bunch of rumors of something bigger like Brad Richards, Stamkos, or a big trade, the Flyers mostly stuck to the expected game plan. Mostly.

The most "predictable" move was adding a 3rd/4th line character guy.  The Flyers needed some experience in that area, and the team has commented that they need a "new Laperriere" to provide leadership and character in that role.  Max Talbot seems to fit that bill, the only surprise being that he comes from the Penguins.

Speaking of the Penguins, there was that signing of Jagr the other day.  Now nearly everyone expected the Flyers to be looking at wingers, maybe Erik Cole or Michael Ryder, but no one was taking about Jagr to the Flyers until the day before free agency.  Apparently the Flyers pursuit of him didn't even start until then until Holmgren speculatively sent a text to former flyer Petr Svoboda, who is the agent for Jagr and Voracek.

Jagr will be a very interesting case.  He'll turn 40 in midseason and will not be the dominant player of old, but he's remained productive in Russia and is coming off a very strong World Championships performance.  It's easy to question whether an aging temperamental Euro star is a right fit on the Flyers, but Jagr seems more dedicated to training and staying in shape than ever before.  Also he apparently did his homework and chose the Flyers (which were not the richest offer) after talking to the coaches and players.  There's lots of reasons to be hopeful that Jagr will have a productive season, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him hit 60 points this season.

Lastly, there is the signing of Andreas Lilja.  A cheap, depth defensemen for the 6/7 role.


Other Signings:
-Handzus to SJ for $2.5x2 years.  Early in the day it was reported that the Flyers had signed Handzus, to which I was receptive.  He would be a big centermen to play on the third line and would be a decent fit at the right price.  Seems to me SJ got a good deal here for an aging though still valuable centermen.

-Upshall to Florida for $3.5x4.  Wow, the first of many big overpayments on the day.  This signing was the perfect marriage of a player who's not quite as good as he thinks he is (career highs; 22 goals and 34 points) with a team looking to overpay to get to the cap floor.

-Leino to Buffalo for $4.5x6.  This is an outright shocker.  I don't blame the Flyers for holding steady at a $3m deal, though I suspected someone else would come along and offer more.  Just not that much more.  Calendar year 2010 Leino, who scored 21 points in 19 playoff games and had a very strong first half of the ensuing regular season, was a player worthy of a deal approaching $4m a season.  Calendar year 2011 Leino, not so much.  While Leino is younger and better defensively than Jagr (though he's still not great defensively himself), what are the odds the Flyers get more points and goals from Jagr at $3.3m this year than Buffalo gets from Leino at $4.5?

-Cole to Montreal for $4.5x4.  This is the guy who I wanted on the Flyers, and while that's not an outrageous price, it was still too high for the Flyers to entertain.

-Connolly to Leafs for $4.75x2.  Connolly is a talented player who plays at near a point/game pace when healthy, but when is he ever healthy?  He's only played 70 games once since the lockout, and here are his point totals the last 5 seasons; 1, 40, 47, 65, 42.  This is a $5 million player now?  At least it's only a 2 year deal.

-Vokoun to the Caps for $1.5x1.  An outright steal for the Caps, as he fell into their laps when he didn't find a big money deal on July 1 and looked for a contender to join.  Of course the Flyers could not have entered free agency and expected to get Vokoun for anywhere near this amount, but it still hurts to watch a competitor get such a quality goalie for so little salary, even if it was just luck.


Up Next for the Flyers:
-The Flyers don't have much cap space left.  They likely have $3m or so in cap space left after signing Simmonds and making expected cuts, but they still need to carry a 19th or 20th skater and leave a little cap buffer.

-There are rumors the Flyers are sniffing around Jason Arnott.  He would be of similar interest to the Flyers for the same reason as Handzus; a big third line center at this point of his career.  He might want too much money though.

-The Stamkos rumors never go away with the Flyers.  The latest is Schenn, Bobrovsky and 1st rounder for Stamkos.  If there was no salary cap and this was purely about hockey, I definitely do this deal.  Given the cap restraints however, the Flyers will likely have to dump more salary to fit Stamkos in (Hartnell or Carle maybe), and would not be in great shape next offseason allocating raises to JVR and Coburn, so it's ultimately a tough call.  This is assuming of course the rumors are accurate and Stamkos doesn't simply resign with the Lightning.

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