Earlier this year, Bryz commented that he was "lost in the woods." In light of his recent musings on 24/7, clearly he is more like a lost space cadet.
Another frustrating loss with some questionable goals, and Flyers fans are freaking out. Clearly the franchise is ruined by Bryzgalov's eternal contract.
Kidding aside, there is no getting around the fact that Bryzgalov is not playing well. He put together a long win streak, but has looked very shoddy in the last few losses. He continues to be plagued by deflections, but at some point he (and the team) has to adjust and not just lament bad luck.
The numbers don't lie. With 14 wins, Bryzgalov is 15th in the NHL, but of those goalies, only Craig Anderson on a terrible Ottawa team is even close to his GAA (3.01) and save percentage (.890). The Flyers signed Bryzgalov to be a Vezina candidate, and at worst, a top 10 goalie in the league. He's nowhere close right now. I previously noted how Bryzgalov was a 3 star selection in 44% of his starts last year in Phoenix. This year? 16% (4/25). He can play much better, and he knows it.
He still needs to figure out how to excel on this team. Maybe you can understand why the Flyers tried to muzzle him early this year, as it looks like he might need to refocus. He's obviously a strange cat, but regardless of anyone's personality, you can succeed. He has to start showing some serious competitiveness to get through this though.
It's too early to jump off the bridge on Bryzgalov, his contract, and incite a good old Flyers goalie controversy, but I do think it's time to give Bob a run of starts.
Opinions on NHL topics of the moment, but mostly on the Flyers.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Friday, December 16, 2011
Major Headaches
A lot has changed quickly in the current concussion storyline. A week ago, I probably would've posted somewhat lightheartedly about the Flyers concussion disclosure history--trying to explain away injuries as neck soreness, dehydration, and now with Pronger, a mystery virus. It's not that Pronger's and Giroux's uncertain issues weren't serious, but there was the expectation that they'd be back sooner or later.
All that has changed. Pronger has now been diagnosed with severe post concussion syndrome, and is out for the season. And in direct contradiction of his previous statements, Holmgren discloses that Giroux's symptoms have actually been getting worse every day.
For the wins to keep on coming, several players will have to contribute to the best of their abilities. The current winning streak is largely thanks to goal scoring streaks from Hartnell and Simmonds, quality goaltending from Bryz and Bob, and quality playmaking from Jagr and Voracek. (Take note Flyers fans, but with Giroux out of the lineup, Hartnell is the team's leading scorer!) The Flyers have also gotten some bounces, and understandably, the Caps more or less gave up the other night when they conceded the second goal of the game to Bourdon from Rinaldo and Shelley.
What to do about Pronger
Tangibly, Pronger brought three things to the Flyers; veteran leadership, defensive anchoring, and a power play presence. As the Flyers try to fill those holes, it would be impossible to do all three in one player, and even getting two would be a stretch. I think the Flyers will not even try to fill the leadership void from the outside, and focus on the defensive and power play shortcomings.
First you have to assess the cap space. Presuming the Flyers approach the stretch with the following lineup, my math says they would be spending $60.08 against the cap;
On the power play end of things, a guy like Bryan McCabe is unsigned, and might sign for very little ($1 million?). He's a flawed player, but a PP specialist. I also saw Marc Crawford suggest the Flyers trade for Sergie Gonchar this morning, possibly shipping out Schenn, but I'm not crazy about trading Schenn before he's ever had a chance with this team for a 37 year old defensemen signed for $5.5 this year and next.
It's also a little early for teams to decide they are going to be sellers, and looking to unload their pending UFAs, so it's hard to speculate what else is available by trade.
Long story short, the Flyers have a few million dollars to plug holes, but they have to decide if they are willling to trade picks and prospects, and which need is more pressing--PP or defensive help. The most likely scenario is a trade for defensive defensemen I think.
All that has changed. Pronger has now been diagnosed with severe post concussion syndrome, and is out for the season. And in direct contradiction of his previous statements, Holmgren discloses that Giroux's symptoms have actually been getting worse every day.
Holmgren on December 12: "Claude is continuing to feel better"While the Flyers continue to pile up wins on the ice and sit in first place, the season is in a very delicate place. The Flyers aren't the only ones with concussion issues, as recent names added to the concussion casualty list include Sidney Crosby (the best player in the league), Jeff Skinner (reigning rookie of the year), and Milan Michalek (NHL leading goal scorer).
Holmgren on December 13: "Claude reported not feeling very good today. Over the past few days, his symptoms have gradually gotten worse. He will be out indefinitely with a concussion."
For the wins to keep on coming, several players will have to contribute to the best of their abilities. The current winning streak is largely thanks to goal scoring streaks from Hartnell and Simmonds, quality goaltending from Bryz and Bob, and quality playmaking from Jagr and Voracek. (Take note Flyers fans, but with Giroux out of the lineup, Hartnell is the team's leading scorer!) The Flyers have also gotten some bounces, and understandably, the Caps more or less gave up the other night when they conceded the second goal of the game to Bourdon from Rinaldo and Shelley.
What to do about Pronger
Tangibly, Pronger brought three things to the Flyers; veteran leadership, defensive anchoring, and a power play presence. As the Flyers try to fill those holes, it would be impossible to do all three in one player, and even getting two would be a stretch. I think the Flyers will not even try to fill the leadership void from the outside, and focus on the defensive and power play shortcomings.
First you have to assess the cap space. Presuming the Flyers approach the stretch with the following lineup, my math says they would be spending $60.08 against the cap;
Hartnell Giroux Jagr Meszaros Carle BryzgalovThat leaves the Flyers with just over $4 million to play with in cap space, assuming they don't cut or trade away anyone.
Simmonds Briere Read Timonen Coburn Bobrovsky
Voracek Talbot JVR Bourdon Lilja
Harry Z Cooter Schenn Gustafsson
Rinaldo Shelley
On the power play end of things, a guy like Bryan McCabe is unsigned, and might sign for very little ($1 million?). He's a flawed player, but a PP specialist. I also saw Marc Crawford suggest the Flyers trade for Sergie Gonchar this morning, possibly shipping out Schenn, but I'm not crazy about trading Schenn before he's ever had a chance with this team for a 37 year old defensemen signed for $5.5 this year and next.
It's also a little early for teams to decide they are going to be sellers, and looking to unload their pending UFAs, so it's hard to speculate what else is available by trade.
Long story short, the Flyers have a few million dollars to plug holes, but they have to decide if they are willling to trade picks and prospects, and which need is more pressing--PP or defensive help. The most likely scenario is a trade for defensive defensemen I think.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Realignment Proposal
Last night, by a vote of 26-4 the NHL Board of Governors approved a proposal to reformat the NHL into 4 conferences. It is as follows:
The Flyers conference is essentially the same as their old division, except the Caps and Canes are added to the mix. It doesn't seem like much change, but there are two key changes in this format.
One, for regular season play, you have a home and home with every out-of-conference team. That means every team in league will visit Philadelphia, which is fun for the fans to see every team. The flip side of that is that the Flyers will only play teams which they have out of division testy relationships, like the Sabres or Leafs. twice a year; the same amount they will see a team like the Calgary Flames
The second key point is that the first two rounds of playoffs will be within conference, seeded 1-4. The Flyers will see a team like Pens in the playoffs A LOT. After the first two rounds, the teams are re-seeded based on points for the last two rounds.
It will be interesting to see how the balance plays out, as it seems some conferences should be perennially stronger than others. Based on last year's standings, this is how the playoffs would've looked and may have gone:
Not shockingly different, for this season anyway. 15 out of the 16 teams would've maintained their playoff position, with LA losing out to Dallas as a result of the realignment.
This system is what it is, some positives some negatives. My biggest concern is the strong possibility of seeing the same playoff matchups over and over and over. Detroit and Chicago is all well and good, but what if they play each other 5 or 6 years in a row?
Back to the Flyers
Sometimes a team needs a few breaks to get them going, after which time they will make their own breaks. The game against the Ducks is such an example. The Flyers were simply playing poorly. Maybe it was the layoff between games, but the Flyers looked slow and out of sorts. Fortunately the Ducks just kept getting penalties and eventually the Flyers broke through. Timonen made a few great plays, the Flyers scored on a long 5-on-3, and got the game-winner on a 4 minute OT 4-on-3 PP. Once the good vibes started, the Flyers carried it over and whipped the Coyotes the next night. The absence of Pronger will hurt (especially on the PP, despite the last two games), but it's time the Flyers start evening out their play this season.
Schenn also looks to me to be playing with more confidence. He's clearly a smooth puck handler, and will excel with the puck on his stick. For that reason, the Flyers may to do well to put him at center. His stat line currently stands at 6 game played, 0 points, -6. He was killing it in the AHL so there's no reason to send him back, and the points will come, but I'd put him in the center with a skill winger. JVR maybe.
The Flyers conference is essentially the same as their old division, except the Caps and Canes are added to the mix. It doesn't seem like much change, but there are two key changes in this format.
One, for regular season play, you have a home and home with every out-of-conference team. That means every team in league will visit Philadelphia, which is fun for the fans to see every team. The flip side of that is that the Flyers will only play teams which they have out of division testy relationships, like the Sabres or Leafs. twice a year; the same amount they will see a team like the Calgary Flames
The second key point is that the first two rounds of playoffs will be within conference, seeded 1-4. The Flyers will see a team like Pens in the playoffs A LOT. After the first two rounds, the teams are re-seeded based on points for the last two rounds.
It will be interesting to see how the balance plays out, as it seems some conferences should be perennially stronger than others. Based on last year's standings, this is how the playoffs would've looked and may have gone:
Round 1: Caps v. Rangers, Philly v. Pittsburgh, Boston v. Buffalo, TB v. Montreal, Vancouver v. Phoenix, SJ v. Anaheim, Detroit v. Dallas, Nashville v. Chicago
Round 2: Philly v. Rangers, Boston v. TB, Vancouver v. SJ, Detroit v. Chicago
Round 3: Vancouver v. Boston, Philly v. Detroit
Round 4: Boston v. Detroit
Not shockingly different, for this season anyway. 15 out of the 16 teams would've maintained their playoff position, with LA losing out to Dallas as a result of the realignment.
This system is what it is, some positives some negatives. My biggest concern is the strong possibility of seeing the same playoff matchups over and over and over. Detroit and Chicago is all well and good, but what if they play each other 5 or 6 years in a row?
Back to the Flyers
Sometimes a team needs a few breaks to get them going, after which time they will make their own breaks. The game against the Ducks is such an example. The Flyers were simply playing poorly. Maybe it was the layoff between games, but the Flyers looked slow and out of sorts. Fortunately the Ducks just kept getting penalties and eventually the Flyers broke through. Timonen made a few great plays, the Flyers scored on a long 5-on-3, and got the game-winner on a 4 minute OT 4-on-3 PP. Once the good vibes started, the Flyers carried it over and whipped the Coyotes the next night. The absence of Pronger will hurt (especially on the PP, despite the last two games), but it's time the Flyers start evening out their play this season.
Schenn also looks to me to be playing with more confidence. He's clearly a smooth puck handler, and will excel with the puck on his stick. For that reason, the Flyers may to do well to put him at center. His stat line currently stands at 6 game played, 0 points, -6. He was killing it in the AHL so there's no reason to send him back, and the points will come, but I'd put him in the center with a skill winger. JVR maybe.
Friday, December 2, 2011
Monthly Update
Another month has passed, and things are more uncertain in Flyerdom. First the season numbers;
The real story of late is Pronger's newest surgery. Putting aside the ridiculousness of the Flyers injuries reports and treatments, and that after missing a week with "a virus" he will have knee surgery, this is getting into scary territory with Pronger's health. Last year, he missed most of January, March, and the playoffs. This year, he missed training camp, and now is out again. I believe he is up to 5 surgeries since summer 2010.
Before the season I wrote that the Flyers should be concerned about relying on three, injury prone veterans; Pronger, Timonen and Jagr. Well here we are, with Pronger out for a month and Jagr with a groin issue. Timonen also will be forced to increase his minutes, raising his risk of injury. There's not really anything the Flyers can do about this now, but this should make all Flyers fans very nervous. Is Pronger's body breaking down? Repeated knee and back issues certainly suggest as much. Personally, I don't think the Flyers can make a playoff run with Pronger in and out of the lineup, so let's hope that's not the case.
The Flyers need Meszaros and Carle to step up. Actually, they need Meszaros just to return to his form last year. This year he has made a lot of coverage errors down low, though Meszaros has the combination of size and skill of a top pair defensemen if he can steady his play. Timonen is a wily player, but a 36 year old, 5'10" defensemen can only take so much abuse.
Other Notes
-Nodl was waived, then claimed by Carolina. I shed no tears, as I have pretty much run out of patience with Nodl. When he came up I was pretty impressed with his skating and defensive responsibility, which are often two big question marks with young scorers. Time, however, has shown that he can't score at the pro level. Aside from a good start last year, he has been a total offensive black hole. He was nothing more than an extra body for the Flyers forward corps, and with the emergence of Read, Couturier, Rinaldo, and Harry Z, he was spare parts.
-With the Ducks off to a terrible start, a change was coming. The only question was if the change would be a trade (likely Bobby Ryan) or a coaching change. We now know it was the coach. The Flyers' name always came up for Ryan, a player they've always liked. Former number 2 pick, from South Jersey with ties to the organization, power forward, 3 straight 30 goal season, still only 24...there's a lot to like there. It made little sense from an organizational standpoint though. Simply put, the Flyers are up against the cap--why would they add a big scorer salary (which would require other salary dumps to accommodate) when they have no problem scoring? They need defensemen.
I saw a rumor today on the internet (which may be completely false) that the Flyers had agreed to trade Schenn and 2 picks for Ryan, but Boudreau would only sign as a coach if Ryan was still there. I have my doubts about this whole scenario, but stranger things have happened. Presumably, the Ryan trade talk will cool down for everyone for a while, and I just want to see Schenn play for the Flyers. Fortunately that will start tonight.
Goals - 3.48/game (1st, +1 spot from last month)Watching the Flyers, one wouldn't think they've tightened up defensively, but there's the numbers for goals against. Even with the improvement, they are still in the bottom half of the league. That's something that needs to be addressed, as they are still prone to look awful in their own end--it happened in the first period against the Islanders and Jets, two of the worst teams in the league.
Goals against - 2.91/g (19th, +9)
Faceoffs - 46.9% (29th, even)
Power play - 17.6% (12th, -6)
Penalty kill - 83.5% (14th, +4)
Shots For - 31.5/g (8th, -2)
Shots Against - 28.7 (7th, -5)
The real story of late is Pronger's newest surgery. Putting aside the ridiculousness of the Flyers injuries reports and treatments, and that after missing a week with "a virus" he will have knee surgery, this is getting into scary territory with Pronger's health. Last year, he missed most of January, March, and the playoffs. This year, he missed training camp, and now is out again. I believe he is up to 5 surgeries since summer 2010.
Before the season I wrote that the Flyers should be concerned about relying on three, injury prone veterans; Pronger, Timonen and Jagr. Well here we are, with Pronger out for a month and Jagr with a groin issue. Timonen also will be forced to increase his minutes, raising his risk of injury. There's not really anything the Flyers can do about this now, but this should make all Flyers fans very nervous. Is Pronger's body breaking down? Repeated knee and back issues certainly suggest as much. Personally, I don't think the Flyers can make a playoff run with Pronger in and out of the lineup, so let's hope that's not the case.
The Flyers need Meszaros and Carle to step up. Actually, they need Meszaros just to return to his form last year. This year he has made a lot of coverage errors down low, though Meszaros has the combination of size and skill of a top pair defensemen if he can steady his play. Timonen is a wily player, but a 36 year old, 5'10" defensemen can only take so much abuse.
Other Notes
-Nodl was waived, then claimed by Carolina. I shed no tears, as I have pretty much run out of patience with Nodl. When he came up I was pretty impressed with his skating and defensive responsibility, which are often two big question marks with young scorers. Time, however, has shown that he can't score at the pro level. Aside from a good start last year, he has been a total offensive black hole. He was nothing more than an extra body for the Flyers forward corps, and with the emergence of Read, Couturier, Rinaldo, and Harry Z, he was spare parts.
-With the Ducks off to a terrible start, a change was coming. The only question was if the change would be a trade (likely Bobby Ryan) or a coaching change. We now know it was the coach. The Flyers' name always came up for Ryan, a player they've always liked. Former number 2 pick, from South Jersey with ties to the organization, power forward, 3 straight 30 goal season, still only 24...there's a lot to like there. It made little sense from an organizational standpoint though. Simply put, the Flyers are up against the cap--why would they add a big scorer salary (which would require other salary dumps to accommodate) when they have no problem scoring? They need defensemen.
I saw a rumor today on the internet (which may be completely false) that the Flyers had agreed to trade Schenn and 2 picks for Ryan, but Boudreau would only sign as a coach if Ryan was still there. I have my doubts about this whole scenario, but stranger things have happened. Presumably, the Ryan trade talk will cool down for everyone for a while, and I just want to see Schenn play for the Flyers. Fortunately that will start tonight.
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