New Years Resolution; Fix the Penalty Kill

There are a few ways to judge the Flyers.  One, you could (correctly) say the Flyers defense simply isn't talented enough, so they're not a very good team.  Two, you could make a comparative analysis against last season, and see what that tells you.  Personally, I'm not a big fan of looking at paper and judging teams in the abstract, so I prefer approach two.

Last year, after settling in to Berube hockey, the Flyers were a solid playoff team (albeit by weak Eastern Conference standards).  This year, the Flyers have hit some pretty low depths in the standings.  What has really changed?  The roster is significantly the same, other than Hartnell for Umberger, and the loss of Timonen.  How much can those two events explain?

First, it has to be said that Umberger has been completely anonymous.  Hartnell, with all his warts, is clearly a superior player right now.  That said, Hartnell's absence hasn't seriously hurt the Flyers.  He left vacancies on the top line and top PP unit, but both units are doing just fine without him.  Raffl is currently complementing the astounding play of Voracek and Giroux, and while Schemn hasn't quite mastered the high-slot quick one-timer snapshot, the power play is operating at the same efficiency as last year.

What about Timonen?  He has been a centerpiece of the Flyers defense for several seasons.  Well, first it needs to be pointed out that he was basically a special teams player last season.  Timonen was last among among all Flyers defenseman in even-strength ice time last season.  As for his vacancy on the top PP unit, Streit is a talented PP quarterback, and the power play has suffered no drop off as mentioned above.  The penalty kill however is a different story.

The following graphic is pretty instructive.  The penalty kill is almost single-handedly killing the Flyers this season.

As the graph shows, the power play is the same, and the Flyers are actually slightly improved at 5v5.  There are slight drop-offs at the moment for shot differential and save percentage, although all those power play goals against could account for the drop in save percentage.

 You can also break up the Flyers performance down to a per-game basis.  The difference is dramatic, as the pie charts below show.

(Note that in both charts, "2" means 2 or more goals allowed in a game)

It also bears pointing  that the Flyers are finding themselves shorthanded less often this season than last season, so this increased number of PP goals against is purely on the rate of the penalty kill. The only remaining question is how much does the disastrous penalty kill account for the Flyers disappointing record this season.

It turns out that poor penalty kill performance may count for a lot, but not quite all of the Flyers weakened record.   This chart shows how many points the Flyers earning per sorted by PP goals against.

Even if you held constant penalty kill performance to last season, the Flyers are still not earning quite as many points a game as last season.  I can't say right now what is causing that last bit of performance difference, but I would go so far to say that most of the Flyers drop off this year is attributable simply to what is happening when the Flyers are shorthanded.

What's Working, What Isn't

One month into the season, some truths around this year's team are settling in.

-FTW.  Voracek is playing amazing.  Clearly the best performer on the team right now.  I attended the LA Kings game last week, and he was easily the best player on the ice for either team IMO.  With 18 points in 12 games, only Crosby has more points.  He's still not much of a shooter in my opinion, but he is a top-notch puck carrier and his 10-pound weight loss in the offseason has worked out really well, noticeably increasing his quickness and stamina.

-FAIL.  The team has no Hartnell replacement on the top line or top PP-unit.  Raffl has done pretty well playing with Voracek and Giroux, tying Simmonds for the team lead in goals largely with his skating and by popping up in good spots on both ends of the ice.  Still, he's just a complementary player, and he doesn't play on the PP either.  And now he's out for 6 weeks as ANOTHER Flyers gets injured after being struck with a shot in the foot.  The man the Flyers received for Hartnell, R.J. Umberger, is appearing in games according to the box scores, but I cannot verify that fact after watching the games.

-FTW.  PPs against are way down.  The Flyers are currently in 6th in the league in times shorthanded.  They were 29th last year, and dead last the two years before that.

-FAIL.  The PP is down, and their failure to convert chances at key junctures in games has cost them points in the standings.  Part of that is Hartnell down, and part of the is Streit replacing Timonen.  Streit is a good PP player, but his style is much different.  Streit loves to shoot (and has a much better shot that Timonen), whereas Timonen was a manager back there.  Streit's style may lead to a little more streakiness in results if the bounces don't go your way when you fire it in there.  Additionally, when Lecavalier returned from injury he was immediately put into the Hartnell high slot spot, but by the end of the game Schenn was reinserted there.  I guess Schenn will get an extended opportunity on the ice with top talent there, even if he lost the chance to play LW with Giroux and Voracek at even strength.  Let's see what you can do, young man.

-FTW.  Michael Del Zotto's role is increasing, often leading the team in ice time.  He holds onto the puck longer than any other defensemen on the roster, which was a trait this defensive group was generally lacking.

-FAIL.  Ghost was gone in a flash.  I don't blame the team, but I was hoping to see a few flashes from Ghost before he was sent back down.  I did like what I saw from Colaiacovo in his first game, reading the game well and managing the puck.  It will be interesting to see how a defense corps prominently featuring multiple guys whose NHL career was on the fringes (Colaiacovo, Del Zotto, Schultz) does over the next few weeks while MacDonald and Coburn recover.

Flyers Finding Their Niche

I have written that this year's Flyers really aren't all that good a team, and I haven't seen anything to make me change my mind.  They're not contenders, but they are finding their niche as a bubble playoff team.

After a pretty rough start, the Flyers took 7 of 8 points from a 4 game homestand.  The wins were hardly commanding victories, but they scrapped out the wins against other bubble teams.  They followed that up with a humbling loss in Toronto, before a gritty win in Winnipeg.

The lesson learned from this stretch is we've seen how the Flyers have to win games this year.  They don't have the firepower to outscore teams like last year; 4 and 5 goal performances will be rare.  Bryzgalov is playing excellent however, as he is tracking the puck very well, and really battling and recovering better.  The Flyers also are doing more to collapse around the net in ways they desperately needed to last year.

The Flyers can get some wins this year in this fashion, but it's all pretty fragile.  For one, this team is completely dependent on Bryzgalov (hard to believe we're saying that about Bryzgalov after last year, or the Flyers in general, well, ever).  Partially because Bryzgalov has been very good, and partially because the backup goalie situation is so lousy.

It's also fragile because of the youth up front.  Giroux is looking overwhelmed with Hartnell and Jagr out of the lineup.  Recently, Read, Voracek and Schenn have stepped up their play, but who knows how that will keep up.  It will be a struggle all season, but hopefully Hartsy and Mesz will be back relatively soon, which will help.

Speak of Jagr...

Jagr is one of many recently departed Flyers doing very well thus far.  Jagr has become a key piece on offense for Dallas, and is leading the team with 11 points in 13 games.  The Flyers are missing him this year more than I expected.  Also;

-Matt Carle is playing big minutes in TB (which shouldn't be surprising) and already has 2 goals.  The other key departure for the Flyers this year.

-JVR has 8 goals in 13 games, a pretty stark change from the 11 he scored in 43 for the Flyers last year.  Many of these have been of the tap-in variety, finishing off others' plays (he only has 2 assists), but there's nothing wrong with that.  He's playing well and with confidence, but there's no need for Flyers fans to panic about that trade at the moment.

-Similar to JVR, Jeff Carter has 6 goals (and only 1 assist) in 11 games for the offensively challenged Kings.

Put all this together, and you can see all the offense that has gone out the door from Philadelphia.  That kind of goal-hawking from JVR and Carter is certainly a missing ingredient from this year's Flyers roster.

But Don't Panic

The Flyers have obvious needs, which my man Bill Meltzer accurately describes and prioritizes; "1) a puck-moving defenseman who can play 20+ minutes per game, 2) a scoring winger who possesses both good size and a consistent willingness to work in the "greasy" areas of the ice (though I might go a little more towards high-end skill players who snipe, in the mold of Perry or Iginla mentioned below), 3) a backup goaltending upgrade in case of a long-term injury to Ilya Bryzgalov, 4) a fourth-line center who is strong on defensive zone face-offs." http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=49290#.UR0bGqWyD9l

Despite this, it DOES NOT make sense for the Flyers to go chasing down trades.  For one, they are not a contender this year, so trading more youth and picks is a bad idea.  The Flyers have very few high-end prospects, and are generally depleted of prospects outside the NHL from trading away so many picks under Holmgen.  Second, these are tough holes to fill, as evidenced by the Timonen contract signed last week.

Clearly the Flyers looked around and saw Timonen was their only option for a number 1 defensemen next year.  He is old, and isn't the defensemen he used to be, but the Flyers renewed him at a very high cap number (shockingly high at first glance) because they had no other choice.  After accepting that reality, my only regret is that they couldn't get Kimmo to resign for say $4.5m instead of 6.  $1.5m in cap space will make a difference if the Flyers pursue Iginla or Perry as free agents after this season...

Out of Sorts

0-3 last night, and 0-3 on the season.  Another pretty ugly loss last night.  The Flyers aren't getting killed or run out of the building in these losses, but they're sloppy and at times it feels futile.  Now some have turned and said "but the Flyers started 0-3 in the last lockout season, and ultimately went to the conference finals!"  The reality is that that Flyers team started 3-7-1, and after back to back 3-0 losses to Ottawa and Florida, two of the worst teams in the league at the time, Clarke traded Mark Recchi.  I doubt Holmgren has any similar tricks up his sleeve to acquire a #1 defensemen along with a player who would score 50 goals three years in a row.

What is the problem?  There are many;

-No chemistry amongst the forwards, and the chances they do get, there's no finish.  No one is shooting with confidence or showing any creativity, other than Giroux.

-Young players who played during the lockout look out of sorts.  Couturier has really struggled, and Read has been pretty invisible.  Schenn has some good moments, but not enough.

-The defense looks haggard.  Grossmann is really laboring, struggling with forecheckers, the puck, and notably getting outskated.  Timonen isn't doing much.  Schenn has been average, Mesz has been pretty good, and Coburn can only do so much himself.

-General disorganization.  Failed coverage on faceoffs has led to goals.  Failed coverage down low has led to goals.  Special teams have been terrible.  The Flyers have also been burned by bad changes.  All this in 3 games.

-Bad bounces.  It's hard to say how much is teams making their own luck, but the first period against the Devils was probably their best this season, yet they trailed 2-0 after it.  Against Buffalo, there were 3 questionable calls in the crease directly leading to goals or potential goals, and all three went in Buffalo's favor.

-Bad first periods.  The first 15 minutes against the Penguins were terrible, leading to a 2-0 hole.  Another slow start in the Buffalo game creating a 1-0 deficit, and another 2-0 hole last night.  Outscored 5-0 in the first period so far this season.


I'm not sure what the remedy is here, as Laviolette did the line shuffling prior to the New Jersey game  Maybe throw in Leighton and see if the team responds?  I think the most important thing right now is to focus on special teams, where they've been outscored 7-1 in just three games.  That is inexcusable.

The Offseason Plan

THE SETUP

Here is my best guess as to what the Flyers base lineup will be.

Notes to this chart
-Nearly all of these salary numbers are final, except for Bourdon and Voracek.  They are RFAs, and I have guessed at salaries for them
-Pronger, Kubina, Carle and Jagr are not in this lineup.
-A salary cap of $69 million, which is a number that has been thrown around.  Obviously with the CBA expiring things could get interesting regarding the cap.


THE ISSUES

-Is Jagr coming back?
That is the first question to answer.  If the season ended in January, I would say definitely.  He looked tired and beat up as the season carried on though, and his role was reduced.  Jagr loved everything about playing for the Flyers this year, and he sounds like he wants one more year in the NHL, but he won't sign here unless he feels he will get significant minutes.  He signed with the Flyers against expectations last year because he thought it was a good "hockey fit", and he will leave if that "hockey fit" no longer applies.

-The Defense
By signing Grossmann to an extension, the Flyers took care of their top offseason priority in April.  That seems like a decent contract, provided his knees hold up.  The Flyers still need help back here though, with Pronger seemingly done, and Timonen is at the end of his career, undersized, and has not survived an 82 game season without sustaining performance-inhibiting injuries the last 2 seasons.
I don't think Carle will be back, because someone will be willing to give him $5m+ a year for several years, and I don't think the Flyers should be that team.  You never know though with the way Clarke is talking. There's also a (very) small chance Timonen could retire, freeing up his $6.3m salary, and the Flyers could chase Suter for big money.
Lastly, I've seen spitballing the Flyers could trade for someone like Weber, would involve trading significant assets.  Such a move fits the Flyers MO, and while it would hurt to trade away more picks and young forwards, a defense corps with Coburn, Carle and Weber could be rock solid for several years.  So many variables to that though...

-Size up front
The Flyers score a ton of goals, but their forward corps is small and not very physical.  A big body for the 2/3rd line (who plays big) would balance the roster.

-Goaltending
Nothing to discuss here really.  Bryzgalov did not have a good year overall, but I expect improvement next year now that he knows what to expect in Philly.  His instincts with the media are wrong for the town, but he's figuring it out.
If you recall, at the end of February, Bryzgalov made comments about "finding the peace in his soul" to play in this city.  Most commented that this was a very troubling sign reflecting a discouraged player, and I said it was a good sign.  For the record, on the day of that comment, Bryzgalov's save percentage stood at .898.  After that comment, he had a spectacular month of March and had a .929 save percentage for the remainder of the season.  He will still makes gaffes, but now he knows the lay of the land in Philly and will be better for it.


THE PLAN

There are a ton of ways you could go, but this is what I would do:

-Trade JVR, preferably for an up-and-coming dman.  I'm not sure what the trade value of JVR is right now, and if it's diminished in the last few months, but surely the Flyers could make a "hockey trade" for a talented young defenseman whose career is also experiencing less than an exponential growth.  Personally, I don't see JVR as a player who will ever consistently perform at all-star level, and the team needs defense more than another skating forward.
JVR could also be the centerpiece of a larger deal for a prominent defensemen.

-Sign a rugged 2/3 line winger to fill JVR's now vacant spot in the top nine.  Unfortunately there aren't many such candidates out there on the UFA market, though Shane Doan, Ryan Smyth, Paul Gaustad, Dustin Penner, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Travis Moen and Daniel Winnik might be worth looking into.

-If you can skillfully pull these two things off, the Flyers will still have $3-7 million in cap space to play with, allowing for other signings or taking salary in a trade that could further bolster the defense.

-Make an executive order for system adjustments.  I've been beating this drum for a few months.  I was really hoping that, as a silver lining to a deep Flyers cup run, would be to buck the trend of tight defense in the NHL today.  Alas, look at the teams left in the playoffs; LA (2nd in goals against, and they eliminated VAN and STL who were 4th and 1st respectively), Phoenix (5th), NY (3rd), NJ (9th) and the Caps, who are 21st but only because they started a season with a different coach.  Clutch-and-grab is creeping back into the game.
I also believe Bryzgalov will look like a different goalie in a defense-first scheme.  This is how he did it in PHX, and his clear weaknesses are side-to-side movement and shot recovery.  Defense-first is the way the wind is blowing, and could maximize the talent the Flyers have.  Can Lavy make that adjustment?  If the team is still leaking goals and looking unspectacular in December, his seat will begin to get hot.

Season Review

All playoff exits feel disappointing.  Through the ups and downs, fans always convince themselves that their team can win any series.  The Flyers flame-out was sudden, but in the long view, it makes a little more sense.

At no point this season did I think the Flyers were really primed for a serious cup run.  They were too young up front, having traded away their core forwards.  Then things started going pretty well, but Pronger went down.  Without Pronger, I thought a long playoff run was precluded.

The Flyers defensive and goaltending struggles reinforced that perception, until March shutouts made me begin to think I could be wrong.  The defense showed hope, and they could score whenever they needed to.  Eventually however, the gas tank ran dry and ingrained problems caught up to them.

It was a memorable and exciting season, and I could not label this team as underachievers.  That's pretty much all you can ask for as a fan.

PLAYER REVIEWS

Forwards:
-Giroux.  The burden fell to him to step up with Carter and Richards gone, and he responded with an MVP caliber season that Richards or Carter never produced.

-Briere.  A very poor regular season, largely saved by 8 playoff goals.  His overall game never really fired on all cylinders though, even in the playoffs.

-Voracek.  His 49 points is not all that impressive, but he was a valuable player for the Flyers, and I certainly didn't see anything like conditioning or effort issues that his old CBJ coach criticized him for on the way out.  He may never break 25 goals or 65 points, but I could see him being a winger on a quality top line.

-Hartnell.  A quiet playoffs shouldn't dilute a career year, and I think he was playing hurt anyway.  Consistently energetic, physical, and showed a finishing touch I didn't think he had.  All this after a pre-season lost to health concerns and a terrible start.

-Jagr.  54 points in 73 games, veteran leadership, and the self-proclaimed "most enjoyable year" of his career.  That qualifies as a success.  Jagr did have some nagging groin issues, and his energy level fluctuated throughout the year, so it remains to be seen if he will be back.

-Schenn.  18 points in 54 games is an unimpressive line, but he improved as the season wore on, and I'd go so far as to say he was the Flyers' best player in game 1 of the Pittsburgh series.  I expect  him to take the next step in his career next year.

-Read.  He turned out to be one of the best rookies in the league.  24 goals, played everywhere on the front line, and in all situations.  Pretty much ideal.

-Simmonds.  Almost doubled his career high in goals, largely due to 11 PP goals.  He looks to be a streaky scorer going forward, as he battles and puts himself in good positions but doesn't have very soft hands, his physical initiative will make him a fan favorite.

-Talbot.  Gave the Flyers everything they could hope for.  A lunchpail player and team guy, he went from 8 goals last season with Pittsburgh to 19 this year, and he and Giroux were lethal shorthanded in the playoffs.

-Couturier.  Surpassed all expectations this season, with 13 goals and logged big minutes in the playoffs.  Remarkable for an 18 year old, I could not identify any clear deficiencies in his game.  What a draft day steal, he could be a key player for the Flyers for a long time.

-Wellwood.  Nothing spectacular, but a young, speedy player that should be an asset for bottom lines and depth next year.

-Rinaldo.  Did all that could be asked of him.  Not a high skill guy, he successfully brought a lot of energy and spark to the Flyers.  He will have to continue to work on his discipline, though in his defense, he is clearly targeted by the officials and is on the short end of a lot of marginal calls.

-JVR.  I think JVR had a very disappointing season.  Yes, he had injuries, and his point production was decent before all the injuries.  Still, I wrote that his early stat line flattered his play even before all the injuries, and there's no escaping the reality of the 11g, 13a, 43gp for a player who was supposed to score 30+ goals this year.  He was very good in game 1 against NJ, but did little else in that series.

-Shelley.  Yes, he is still on this team.

Defense:
-Timonen.  Another year of wear and tear on Timonen's body, he still was able to be the Flyers top defensemen this year.  Injuries severely limited him in the playoffs.

-Meszaros.  Was inconsistent all year, never finding the form he had most of last season.  Then his season was cut short by an injury.  Maybe next year will be a bounce back season.

-Coburn.  Unremarkable regular season, but logged huge minutes in the playoffs.

-Grossmann.  The strong, defense-first, shot-blocking defenseman the team needed.  He has bad knees though, so let's hope they hold up.

-Carle.  The team's de facto number 1 defensemen this year, covering a lot of territory and eating minutes.  A very good chance that his time as a Flyers is over, however.

-Kubina.  He could not provide the reliable veteran presence the team was looking for---too old and slow, and picked up some injuries too.  Little chance of him returning.

-Pronger.  His season never really started, and his career may be over.  It's a shame his time with the Flyers was so short-lived.

-Gustafsson.  He really made some nice strides this season, though he could struggle at times.  Skilled and smart, but undersized.  It will be interesting to see what he can do next year in extended time.

-Bourdon.  Another pleasant surprise, as his career seemed to have stalled in the minors.  Looks like he might have an NHL future yet.

-Lilja.  Seldom used in the regular season, played decently in the playoffs.  Too old and slow to play a significant role.

Goalies:
-Bryzgalov.  Things did not go as planned, though he was amazing in March.  Too inconsistent and gaffe prone, but on and off the ice.  Seemingly has some growing up to do, though a full season in Philly under his belt will help.  Expectations will remain high with his 9 year contract.  I am optimistic.

-Bobrovsky.   Started the season strong, but on the whole did not take the next step in his career this year.  Now heading into the last year of his contract with the Flyers.

Devils Game 1 Review

It all seemed too predictable.

Predictably, the long layoff exacerbated the Flyers' slow starts, and the Devils had the game's first 10 shots and its first goal.

Predictably, the Flyers slowly took over the game against a fatigued Devils team.

Predictably, Brodeur had some real strong stretches, but doesn't dominate entire games anymore. 

Predictably, it was Danny Briere popping up to score two key goals.

Overall, I think we saw a preview of what this series will look like.  The Devils contained the Flyers at times, denying the Flyers space and stopping attacks before they started.  In time, however, the Flyers asserted their superiority. 

Notes:
-Briere simply turns it up in the playoffs.  He had a terrible regular season, making the success of his season entirely hinge on his playoff performance.  Well now he has 7 goals in 7 playoff games.  As good as he was in the playoffs last year, it took him 8 games to get 7 goals then.  This is all the more impressive considering he finished the season with only 3 goals in his last 34 regular season games.

-Playoff JVR is back.  He revved it up and drove the net a few times.  He didn't finish any of those plays, though he did roof a loose puck with style for one goal.  Laviolette put JVR up with Briere and Voracek, reducing the ice time of Schenn in the process, but it looks like that may be the right call.

-The Flyers were able to spread out their defensemen's ice time much more tonight than at any point of the Pittsburgh series.  The health of Grossman, increased faith in Lilja and Gustafsson, and quite frankly less threatening forward talent on the Devils made this possible.  This may not be a good sign because of what it implies about his health, but Timonen actually had the fewest even strength minutes of any defensemen.

-The Devils had success taking away the Flyers passing outlets and forcing the Flyers defensemen to carry the puck further than they normally would up the ice.  The Devils got their 3rd goal on a chain of events that started this way.

-Wellwood played a very good game, and looked like one of the few Flyers ready to go from the start.  As a member of the checking line with Talbot and Cooter, Wellwood will continue to see more ice time than Schenn, Read or Simmonds.

-My review of Bryzgalov today was a pretty strong start, but could've been better later.  In particular, he was a little slow moving around and reacting, leaving his five-hole open.  Bryzgalov didn't have much to do in the 3rd period, but he should've done better on the Sykora goal and made a momentum preserving stop.

Penguins Game 6 Review

Flyers nation can now exhale.

Anxiety was rising, but instead the Flyers turned out their best 60 minutes of the series.  Giroux provided the early boost, and the Flyers circled the wagons and survived the Penguins furious counter-punch.  That would prove to be Penguins' best shot.

I was oddly confident this morning.  Rationally, I should've been very concerned about the Flyers shorthanded defense, and Bryz looking physically hampered, but instead I just thought to myself that there was no way the Flyers would let this series get away from them.  They were going to win this game.  This team has been way too resilient this year, never giving up.  Yes, the Penguins were a more focused team than earlier in the series, but this Flyers team always answers the bell.

I'm already looking forward to the next round, and pulling hard for both Washington and Ottawa to complete their upsets and leave a clear path to the finals for the Flyers.  Either way, it will be great not to have to think about punks like Malkin, Neal and Letang for 6 months.

Notes:
-The Flyers really tightened up defensively.  Bryzgalov faced hardly any clean looks, and didn't have to move laterally nearly as much.  As a result, he looked more comfortable and made all the expected saves.  Also, the Flyers blocked 40 shots today, more than the previous two games combined (and double the 20 they blocked in game 3, their previous series high).

-Gustafsson came in and played like a champ.  His ice time rose from ~12 minutes in game 5 to ~22 in game 6, nearly all at even strength.  That was more than Timonen and Carle at even strength this game.  Timonen actually played less than 7.5 minutes at even strength, and 15 overall.

-After going for 1/3 on the power play today, the Flyers percentage dropped to 57% (12/23) for the series.  The Pens themselves went 31% (9/29), a damn good number in any other reality, but also gave up 3 shorthanded goals.  Mind you, the Pens were one of the best penalty killing teams in the league this year and set a franchise record for PK percentage.

-Crosby was nearly invisible today, and I suspect he is not 100% after getting nailed on the chin by Malkin last game.  Malkin was very good, scoring one, hitting a post, and generally wreaking havoc in the Flyers zone around the net.

Midseason Player Reviews

I don't like rating players by grades, and there's no use denying every player faces different expectations and different roles.  I'm going to simply assume some degree of subjective expectations and rate players with a stock-rating flavor.

Outperform
-Claude Giroux.  No brainer here.  Last season he looked like a promising young center, but was arguably the 4th most visible center on the team.  With Richards and Carter traded to make room for a goalie, Giroux faced a lot of pressure to be the offensive lynchpin.  He has responded with an MVP caliber season.

-Jaromir Jagr.  Sticking with Giroux's line, no one was sure how Jagr would perform after three season out of the NHL.  50 points?  60 points?  He still couldn't do a point a game, could he?  Apparently yes.  After a slow start, he found his legs and has looked fantastic, and is a key offensive player for the Flyers.  Nagging injuries are the only thing slowing him down now.

-Scott Hartnell.  And now to complete the Giroux line!  Hartnell got off to a very rocky start, missing preseason time due to medical tests, and his place in the lineup was very much at risk with 2 points in 7 games and Simmonds on the top PP unit.  Placing him with Jagr and Giroux has been magic, as every player has looked better since this trio was complete.  Hartnell has 35 points in 34 games since then.

-Matt Read.  On pace for 25+ goals, and an offensive factor every night.  What more could the Flyers want from him?

-Jake Voracek.  His pace of ~50 points isn't going to turn many heads, and is line with his career averages, however I think he is playing better than that.  Didn't start off great, but he is up on his skates attacking the defense every night.  It's not a coincidence that the Flyers go on win streaks when he is playing his best.  Early in the season I talked about Jagr replacing Leino's offensive contribution, but it's actually been Voracek carrying the puck, making plays, contributing what the Flyers would've hoped for from Leino.

-Kimmo Timonen.  He has played big minutes and piled up the points, and looks to produce at a rate not seen since his best years in Nashville.

-Max Talbot.  Has played reliably all over the lineup, and at midseason is already near career highs in goal scoring and points.

-Sean Couturier.  I didn't listen to scouts early this year when they nearly unanimously predicted Cooter would make the big team.  I looked at the roster and though, nah.  Instead, Cooter has simply made it impossible to take him out of the lineup, playing like a veteran.

-Harry Zolneirczyk.  Despite being sent down early in the season, he has come back and looked great on the 4th line--energetic with occasional scoring.  Thumbs up, though to maintain a role like this in the NHL he will have to have an increased role on the PK.

-Zac Rinaldo.  I was pretty skeptical of this wild man coming into the season.  Although he seems targeted by officials, he has general kept it under control, potted a goal here or there, and aggressively sought contact on the ice. 

-Marc-Andre Bourdon.  His ascent to the NHL hasn't really gone like many in the organization may have hoped, but he has played within himself and looked like he belongs in the NHL.

Market Perform
-Danny Briere.  A pretty ho-hum regular season for Briere.  He's been there for some key goals, but hasn't looked consistently dangerous and is on pace for his lowest point totals for a full season as a Flyer (when healthy).  I am giving him somewhat of a pass due to raising his game in the playoffs the last two years, and the expectation that he will do it again.

-Matt Carle.  Carle continues to hum along, playing big minutes and getting decent point totals.  I still say he has the worst shot on the team though, so there's always that to infuriate Flyers fans when he gets so many chances with skating and awareness on the ice. 

-Wayne Simmonds.  Simmonds teased Flyers fans early this year and preseason with some offensive skill, however Flyer fans have seen some stone hands since then.  Simmonds is always battling out there, but his offense probably will never be more than occasional and streaky.

-Braydon Coburn.  Quiet but largely steady from Braydon.

-Sergei Bobrovsky.  Bob continues to progress nicely, and currently sports a much better stat line than Bryzgalov.  He probably deserves a chance to get some starts and be given a chance to run with it.

-Andreas Lilja.  Doing exactly what was expected; old and slow, occasionally physical defensemen.

Underperform
-Brayden Schenn.  I don't like putting him here, as when I see him play I see a skilled and intelligent player, and injuries never really gave him a chance.  Still, on January 1, there he was with 0 points and -7 in 8 games.  Hopefully, the second half will treat him better (and the signs are already good).

-James Van Riemsdyk.  Looking at a low 40s point season, and is not visible many nights.  This is even when I commented earlier this season that his points line flatters his play.  He was supposed to progress more than this by this point.

-Andrej Meszaros. The team's best defensemen last year, he struggled early.  His play has improved, but his overall body of work is not what Flyers fans were hoping for.

-Ilya Bryzgalov.  If you've read this blog, or even followed the Flyers at all, do I need to say anything?  Not playing like the top goalie the Flyers signed him to be.  He still can figure it out though.

-Jody Shelley.  Yes, he is still on this team.

No Rating
Chris Pronger, Erik Gustafsson

Realignment Proposal

Last night, by a vote of 26-4 the NHL Board of Governors approved a proposal to reformat the NHL into 4 conferences.  It is as follows:

The Flyers conference is essentially the same as their old division, except the Caps and Canes are added to the mix.  It doesn't seem like much change, but there are two key changes in this format.

One, for regular season play, you have a home and home with every out-of-conference team.  That means every team in league will visit Philadelphia, which is fun for the fans to see every team.  The flip side of that is that the Flyers will only play teams which they have out of division testy relationships, like the Sabres or Leafs. twice a year; the same amount they will see a team like the Calgary Flames

The second key point is that the first two rounds of playoffs will be within conference, seeded 1-4.  The Flyers will see a team like Pens in the playoffs A LOT.  After the first two rounds, the teams are re-seeded based on points for the last two rounds.

It will be interesting to see how the balance plays out, as it seems some conferences should be perennially stronger than others.  Based on last year's standings, this is how the playoffs would've looked and may have gone:

Round 1: Caps v. Rangers, Philly v. Pittsburgh, Boston v. Buffalo, TB v. Montreal, Vancouver v. Phoenix, SJ v. Anaheim, Detroit v. Dallas, Nashville v. Chicago

Round 2: Philly v. Rangers, Boston v. TB, Vancouver v. SJ, Detroit v. Chicago

Round 3: Vancouver v. Boston, Philly v. Detroit

Round 4: Boston v. Detroit

Not shockingly different, for this season anyway.  15 out of the 16 teams would've maintained their playoff position, with LA losing out to Dallas as a result of the realignment.

This system is what it is, some positives some negatives.  My biggest concern is the strong possibility of seeing the same playoff matchups over and over and over.  Detroit and Chicago is all well and good, but what if they play each other 5 or 6 years in a row?  

Back to the Flyers
Sometimes a team needs a few breaks to get them going, after which time they will make their own breaks.  The game against the Ducks is such an example.  The Flyers were simply playing poorly.  Maybe it was the layoff between games, but the Flyers looked slow and out of sorts.  Fortunately the Ducks just kept getting penalties and eventually the Flyers broke through.  Timonen made a few great plays, the Flyers scored on a long 5-on-3, and got the game-winner on a 4 minute OT 4-on-3 PP.  Once the good vibes started, the Flyers carried it over and whipped the Coyotes the next night.  The absence of Pronger will hurt (especially on the PP, despite the last two games), but it's time the Flyers start evening out their play this season.

Schenn also looks to me to be playing with more confidence.  He's clearly a smooth puck handler, and will excel with the puck on his stick.  For that reason, the Flyers may to do well to put him at center.  His stat line currently stands at 6 game played, 0 points, -6.  He was killing it in the AHL so there's no reason to send him back, and the points will come, but I'd put him in the center with a skill winger.  JVR maybe.

Monthly Update

Another month has passed, and things are more uncertain in Flyerdom.  First the season numbers;

Goals - 3.48/game (1st, +1 spot from last month)
Goals against - 2.91/g (19th, +9)
Faceoffs - 46.9% (29th, even)
Power play - 17.6% (12th, -6)
Penalty kill - 83.5% (14th, +4)
Shots For - 31.5/g (8th, -2)
Shots Against - 28.7 (7th, -5)

Watching the Flyers, one wouldn't think they've tightened up defensively, but there's the numbers for goals against.  Even with the improvement, they are still in the bottom half of the league.  That's something that needs to be addressed, as they are still prone to look awful in their own end--it happened in the first period against the Islanders and Jets, two of the worst teams in the league.

The  real story of late is Pronger's newest surgery.  Putting aside the ridiculousness of the Flyers injuries reports and treatments, and that after missing a week with "a virus" he will have knee surgery, this is getting into scary territory with Pronger's health.  Last year, he missed most of January, March, and the playoffs.  This year, he missed training camp, and now is out again.  I believe he is up to 5 surgeries since summer 2010.

Before the season I wrote that the Flyers should be concerned about relying on three, injury prone veterans; Pronger, Timonen and Jagr.  Well here we are, with Pronger out for a month and Jagr with a groin issue.  Timonen also will be forced to increase his minutes, raising his risk of injury.  There's not really anything the Flyers can do about this now, but this should make all Flyers fans very nervous.  Is Pronger's body breaking down?  Repeated knee and back issues certainly suggest as much.  Personally, I don't think the Flyers can make a playoff run with Pronger in and out of the lineup, so let's hope that's not the case.

The Flyers need Meszaros and Carle to step up.  Actually, they need Meszaros just to return to his form last year.  This year he has made a lot of coverage errors down low, though Meszaros has the combination of size and skill of a top pair defensemen if he can steady his play.  Timonen is a wily player, but a 36 year old, 5'10" defensemen can only take so much abuse.

Other Notes
-Nodl was waived, then claimed by Carolina.  I shed no tears, as I have pretty much run out of patience with Nodl.  When he came up I was pretty impressed with his skating and defensive responsibility, which are often two big question marks with young scorers.  Time, however, has shown that he can't score at the pro level.  Aside from a good start last year, he has been a total offensive black hole.  He was nothing more than an extra body for the Flyers forward corps, and with the emergence of Read, Couturier, Rinaldo, and Harry Z, he was spare parts.

-With the Ducks off to a terrible start, a change was coming.  The only question was if the change would be a trade (likely Bobby Ryan) or a coaching change.  We now know it was the coach.  The Flyers' name always came up for Ryan, a player they've always liked.  Former number 2 pick, from South Jersey with ties to the organization, power forward, 3 straight 30 goal season, still only 24...there's a lot to like there.  It made little sense from an organizational standpoint though.  Simply put, the Flyers are up against the cap--why would they add a big scorer salary (which would require other salary dumps to accommodate) when they have no problem scoring?  They need defensemen.

I saw a rumor today on the internet (which may be completely false) that the Flyers had agreed to trade Schenn and 2 picks for Ryan, but Boudreau would only sign as a coach if Ryan was still there.  I have my doubts about this whole scenario, but stranger things have happened.  Presumably, the Ryan trade talk will cool down for everyone for a while, and I just want to see Schenn play for the Flyers.  Fortunately that will start tonight.

A Breath of Fresh Air

The new season is days away, and the feeling around the team is palpably different.  The team hierarchy is  clear cut.  After a few seasons of Mike Richards being the face of the team (aka Captain Mumbles), the leadership burden falls on players who are very comfortable in their own skin; Pronger, Bryzgalov, Timonen and Jagr.  All of these players deal with the media and pressure effortlessly, and Pronger and Bryzgalov will be competing for the better quotes all season long.

I think it's hard for Flyers fans not to be excited with how this preseason went.  First of all, Jagr and Bobrovsky turned a lot of heads.  Apparently Jagr is training fanatically, returning to the rink for late nights skates in a weighted jacket, and his preseason performance is raising expectations.  I said previously that I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him hit 60 points, but many are now speculating him to hum along at a point/game pace alongside Giroux.

Also, Wayne Simmonds scoring 4 goals in the preseason has been a nice surprise.  I think he has been an under-appreciated acquisition this summer, and that he has the potential to be a fan favorite with his physical initiative.  Still, he only scored 30 points last year, so it was unclear how many points the Flyers could expect from him this year, but early indications point him to getting PP time.

The flip side of the coin is that Schenn and Voracek have had anonymous preseasons.  For Schenn, that could mean a start in the AHL.  While disappointing, this is not the end of the world.  Giroux and Spezza, for example, did the same, and things worked out pretty well for them.  Starting Schenn in the AHL would save the Flyers a lot of cap space too.  Voracek's ice time is assured, but he will drift into Laviolette's doghouse if he doesn't get going.  Fingers crossed there.

Overall it's an exciting time for Flyers fans.  I think this year's team ceiling is a little lower than last year's squad, which was kicking butt in January, however the chances of a crisis of confidence that afflicted last year's team are also lower.  Better goaltending, steadier leadership....etc.  I think the biggest problem facing the Flyers is that most of their players are still pretty young (JVR, Giroux, Simmonds, Voracek) or at the end of their careers and are at a great injury risk (Pronger, Timonen, Jagr).  A few key injuries could be devastating.

The final roster will be announced tomorrow, so I'm just going to wait and see on that one rather than prognosticate.  Maybe I'm getting lazy....

It's officially over

As expected, the Bruins series ended promptly this year.  It was a comprehensive thrashing.    There's really not much else to say about it, other than that it shouldn't be all that surprising given the way they looked at the end the season in general; disorganized defensively, tentative, physically unassertive.

I wanted to believe the Flyers would shape up and return to midseason form after some inspired play against Buffalo, but that proved to be a temporary flash against an inferior opponent.

Quick season review:
What went right?
-Giroux emerged as the best player on the team.

-JVR took a big step forward, and should be a key player next year.

-The Meszaros transaction worked out great, being the team's best defense from start to finish this year.  He is signed for 3 more years at $4m per and looks to be the heir apparent to leading the defense as Pronger's and Timonen's ice time declines due to age.

-Bobrovsky showed a lot of promise, with his best hockey coming in November.  That said, I strongly believe his NHL game is not a finished product, and there's no way I'd enter next season with him as the undisputed number 1.

-Nodl's first half.

-The defense was much stronger 1-6, at least when the roster was healthy.

What went wrong?
-Pronger had a mediocre regular season, had injury problems, and essentially missed the end of the season and playoffs.  Honestly I didn't care too much about his regular season because he's a playoff player, but that didn't really work out this year, did it.

-Timonen had his worst season as a Flyer, particularly in the playoffs.  Along with Pronger, questions have to be asked how much their skills will diminish in the next season or two and if they are breaking down.  Timonen is 36 years old and said it himself that he only has so many season in his "stumpy legs."  Maybe he was just playing injured in the playoffs...we'll have to see.

-Richards had an uninspiring regular season, and a particularly disappointing playoffs.  I still say he was injured/out-of-shape.  I hope for his sake it was injured and not the latter.  There's also a lot of chatter about his lack of leadership, but I know nothing about what is really happening in "the room", so I can't speak to that.

-The Versteeg trade is looking like a real dud.  He played a little better in the playoffs, but never contributing in any significant way.  He will have to do better next year to earn the $3m cap hit, or the Flyers should start looking to remedy the mistake of acquiring him in the first place.

-Nodl's second half, the return of Andreas No-Goal.

-Goaltending was not good enough.  It was rendered irrelevant in the Boston series, but the Flyers eeked by a much inferior Buffalo team after what was, taken collectively, probably the worst goaltending performance in a playoff series I've ever seen.

-The power play was really bad, somewhat inexplicably so.

-The Hartnell-Briere-Leino line lost its mojo in the second half of the season.  For last year's playoffs and the first half this year, they were pretty easily the Flyers best 5v5 line, manufacturing scoring chances and pinning in the other team.  Just as an example, Leino's 6 points in 11 playoff games this year is a far cry from his 21 in 19 games last year.

-100 straight games without a shutout.  It's hard to pin down the exact reasons for this, but I say roughly 2/3rds goaltending and 1/3 poor defensive zone coverage and lapses.  Much of a shutout is solid defense combined with a flawless performance by a goalie.



There is really no clear path forward for the Flyers.  That's not to say they're all of a sudden a bad team, I just mean that management could go in several completely different directions.  The only move I think they HAVE to make is a meaningful solution in goal.  What they should do with the skaters however (and if they should shake up the lineup) is very subjective, but almost nothing is off the table.