Friday, January 20, 2012

JVR for Luke Schenn?

The rumors of a trade based on JVR for Luke Schenn got pretty hot and heavy last week, and then JVR was injured.  You can't trade an injured player, so the trade was at least temporarily delayed.  That talk seems to be starting to heat up again.

On paper, the trade makes a lot of sense.  It is a like-for-like trade:
-both players were very high draft picks; JVR #2 in 2007 and Schenn #5 in 2008
-both players have made some noise in the NHL, with Schenn immediately joining the big club as an 18 year old and JVR turning a lot of heads in the playoffs last year
-both players may be seen as underwhelming in their development, with Schenn's ice time down this year and JVR not building off last year's playoffs
-both players are signed to manageable long term contracts

The Flyers need defensemen, the Leafs need size up front.  The trade is merely teams trying to address an organizational need while holding their salary, youth and long term potential constant.

All that said, the devil will be in details.  Flyers fans expect Schenn and other goodies for JVR, and Leafs fan vice-versa.  A rumor I read yesterday is that it will be the Flyers who have to sweeten the pot to complete the deal, and the Leafs want Matt Read.

No thanks on that one.  If that's the case I walk away.

Overall I am pretty open to trading JVR if the price is right however.  For all his high-end potential, he still isn't a consistent factor in games.  Top line talent doesn't have to score every night, but they have to be at least visible and dangerous.  Will JVR ever be consistent threat?

I really can't personally evaluate Schenn's development to compare, but the optimistic projections say he is a future top pair stay-at-home defensemen.

Neither team will die trying to make this trade .  Burke likes to wheel and deal, and it's been widely reported that the Flyers have lined up Tim Gleason as a back up plan.  This scenario probably has 2 or 3 weeks to play out, and then the teams will move on.

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